GDB 45: Vincent Lecavalier

Jonathan Willis
January 18 2009 01:04PM

As we wait for the game against the Coyotes to begin, let’s consider two players over the past two seasons. Both are gritty, have good size, and are well-known and often mentioned as Top-10 players. Here are the numbers:

Player A

2008-09: 45GP – 28G – 21A – 59 PTS, +10

2007-08: 82GP – 40G – 66A – 106 PTS, -8

2006-07: 82GP – 56G – 54A – 100 PTS, +23

Player B

2008-09: 45GP – 15G – 22A – 37 PTS, +4

2007-08: 82GP – 41G – 44A – 85 PTS, -23

2006-07: 82GP – 49G – 57A – 106 PTS, -11

Player A is clearly superior to Player B. Outside of a slight difference in one season, he’s been a far better offensive performer, and his +/- totals are well ahead of Player B. Yet everybody, bizarrely enough, thinks that these two players are identical in ability, despite the fact that the statistics don’t support it at all.

The reason that everybody regards these two players as identical talents is because they are one player. Player A is Vincent Lecavalier, specifically his point totals against his own division, pro-rated over full seasons. Player B is Vincent Lecavalier against the rest of the NHL, pro-rated over an entire season.

I haven’t gotten into the effect of the various divisions on player performance, but it is something that we as Oilers fans should be wise to. We’ve seen the effect on Erik Cole, and it isn’t an illusion. The Southeast is the worst division in the NHL, by far, and it isn’t surprising that some of the league’s top goal- and point- scorers can be found there. It’s something that GM’s should keep in mind before making trades, at any rate.

It's something Oilers fans should keep in the back of their mind as they watch their team play the Coyotes and fantasize about what a new addition to the lineup could do to help the cause.

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#301 Travis Dakin
January 18 2009, 09:31PM
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That Ales Hemsky is all kinds of smooth.

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#302 Wanye Gretz
January 18 2009, 09:31PM
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Travis Dakin wrote:

All signs are pointing to a Moreau empty netter for the trick. Book it!

Perhaps they can award the hat trick tomorrow like they did with Cole. Poor guy culdn't even celebrate

WOW Hemsky

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#303 Dropping Deuces
January 18 2009, 09:32PM
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deep oil wrote:

Dropping Deuces wrote: What ever became of Morley Scott. Did Phillips have him knocked off for always correcting him? morely is in the mix for 630 ched eskimo play by play with the retirement of hallsy in the next 5 years… gregor should inherit hallsy’s gig - he is the broadcaster with a football show deep oil knows that morley is on the payroll for the next two years courtesy of batman - holiday with oiler management ticket - not pleased that stauffer was brought it - unannounced - allan watt was pulling his hair out - ooooops sorry

That kinda answers my until we got to the batman part then my inferior mind got numb

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#304 deep oil
January 18 2009, 09:33PM
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the buffet is best for $30 usd you can have a great salad and meal that is way beyond northlands farm food my staples contact can comp the tickets via buying regular seats.... and I usually grab a quarter pounder at mcd but no bigmac in staples - so if you want some help in la - i can assist - dont need anymore friends - but always wanting to help - karma

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#305 chrisinbanff
January 18 2009, 09:33PM
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I missed Ales Hemsky!

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#306 Travis Dakin
January 18 2009, 09:33PM
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Bruthah wrote:

Colin wrote: so um…what’s the score since it’s on ppv http://atdhe.net/live-tv.php?i=11453633

How can you watch that buffering.... buffering... all friggin game.

Wanye Gretz wrote:

Travis Dakin wrote: All signs are pointing to a Moreau empty netter for the trick. Book it! Perhaps they can award the hat trick tomorrow like they did with Cole. Poor guy culdn’t even celebrate WOW Hemsky

It was beautiful. I would like to change my Moreau trick to Hemmer trick...

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#307 Wanye Gretz
January 18 2009, 09:33PM
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Holy crap. He made that look ridiculously easy

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#308 Dropping Deuces
January 18 2009, 09:34PM
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AAAHHHH HHHHOOOO Baby

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#309 Amber
January 18 2009, 09:34PM
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GOOOOOAAAAAAALLLLLL!!!!!! Nicely done Hemsky!!!

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#310 Wanye Gretz
January 18 2009, 09:35PM
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deep oil wrote:

dont need anymore friends - but always wanting to help - karma

I am actually thinking Deep Oil is being nice here.

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#311 Travis Dakin
January 18 2009, 09:35PM
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NO I TAKE IT BACK!!!!!!!!

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#312 chrisinbanff
January 18 2009, 09:35PM
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Good call TD

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#313 Hockey Gods
January 18 2009, 09:35PM
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I'd toss my hat... willis should too

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#314 Wanye Gretz
January 18 2009, 09:36PM
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Staios is a class act.

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#315 Bruthah
January 18 2009, 09:36PM
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Travis Dakin wrote:

How can you watch that buffering…. buffering… all friggin game.

I haven't noticed any buffering.

Did he just call Moreau a hooker?

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#316 Dropping Deuces
January 18 2009, 09:36PM
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Travis Dakin wrote:

All signs are pointing to a Moreau empty netter for the trick. Book it!

*Dropping Deuces bowing to TD*

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#317 Hockey Gods
January 18 2009, 09:36PM
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Wanye Gretz wrote:

deep oil wrote: dont need anymore friends - but always wanting to help - karma I am actually thinking Deep Oil is being nice here.

Me too, now I wonder how many emails he is going to get to that gmail account?

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#318 Amber
January 18 2009, 09:37PM
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UNBELIEVABLE!!!!!!!

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#319 Travis Dakin
January 18 2009, 09:37PM
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So the Oilers went the second longest time ever between a player getting a trick. I think the last won was Smytty's trick in 2 minutes. Now two in a week. Cole gets won last week and now Moreau. Good times.

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#320 deep oil
January 18 2009, 09:38PM
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R-DAWG wrote:

I’m gonna get my color commentary license…I can talk retarded too. Deep oil would be a good one too…hehe

no thanks peasant pay and poor working conditions for Rexall Sports and Allan Watt VP of Communications - why travel all winter on someone's sched - when you can stay in PHX, PV and Scottsdale - check out this condo for $5k per month high season -

www.vrbo.com/vacation-rentals/region/usa/arizona/phoenix-area/scottsdale/optima-camelview-vil

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#321 Wanye Gretz
January 18 2009, 09:38PM
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Moreau gets a hat trick and isn't first star.

GREAT DRESSING ROOM TUNES

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#322 deep oil
January 18 2009, 09:39PM
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sorry here is the actual condo

http://www.vrbo.com/176302

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#323 Hockey Gods
January 18 2009, 09:39PM
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Aint nuthin gonna break my stride, didn't they use that as a theme song in the room a while back?

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#324 Dropping Deuces
January 18 2009, 09:39PM
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This all comes from Hemsky return.

Or Reddox on the second line, if only he changed his name to Brule

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#325 Amber
January 18 2009, 09:40PM
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Did Penner get the star for the mustache?

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#326 Bruthah
January 18 2009, 09:41PM
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Wanye Gretz wrote:

Moreau gets a hat trick and isn’t first star. GREAT DRESSING ROOM TUNES

Did Penner just order a Daiquiri? Cogs starting a congo line?

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#327 Travis Dakin
January 18 2009, 09:41PM
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Travis Dakin wrote:

These are the worst tunes in the world. This is all kinds of (HAPPY).

Got it for you Wanye.

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#328 chrisinbanff
January 18 2009, 09:41PM
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I wanna take part in an Oilers clap-along!

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#329 Bruthah
January 18 2009, 09:42PM
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CLAP CLAP!

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#330 Dropping Deuces
January 18 2009, 09:42PM
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Hall and oates? Somebody get Roli away from the jukebox!

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#331 Wanye Gretz
January 18 2009, 09:42PM
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They need to keep the dressing room feed live. This is the most interesting post game I have seen to date.

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#332 Wanye Gretz
January 18 2009, 09:43PM
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Man. Gene.

Really?

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#333 Travis Dakin
January 18 2009, 09:43PM
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Dropping Deuces wrote:

Hall and oates? Somebody get Roli away from the jukebox!

Quote of the night!

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#334 chrisinbanff
January 18 2009, 09:43PM
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Is Rob Brown holding the microphone weird or is it just me?

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#335 Wanye Gretz
January 18 2009, 09:44PM
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That's good hockey tonight.

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#336 jeanshorts
January 18 2009, 09:45PM
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chrisinbanff wrote:

Is Rob Brown holding the microphone weird or is it just me?

It looked like he had a crippled wrist or something.

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#337 Travis Dakin
January 18 2009, 09:45PM
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Wanye Gretz wrote:

That’s good hockey tonight.

Damn I feel good.

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#338 Wanye Gretz
January 18 2009, 09:46PM
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Travis Dakin wrote:

Wanye Gretz wrote: That’s good hockey tonight. Damn I feel good.

END THE SEASON IMMEDIATELY

Oilers make playoffs

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#339 deep oil
January 18 2009, 09:48PM
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here is the playboy mansion karma website for all ON that can get a pass from mom or the wife

www.kandykompany.com

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#340 deep oil
January 18 2009, 09:53PM
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Wanye Gretz wrote:

deep oil wrote: Travis Dakin wrote: I gotta get on face book. it only works if you have friends and people like me - i had over 3000 friends with a fake name and facebook DEACTIVATED my friend page- damm - had quite of few hotties that just graduated from high school wanting to friend me because of my hollywood and playboy mansion connections and anything goes at the palms LV Wow. When the authorities question me about you I’ll point them straight to that comment.

the authorities already know me - last time i didn't have to post bail - just $100 from the JP on my own recognissance - charges were dropped

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#341 Travis Dakin
January 18 2009, 09:53PM
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uh...

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#342 Travis Dakin
January 18 2009, 09:59PM
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MacT press confrence on soon....

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#343 deep oil
January 18 2009, 09:59PM
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Travis Dakin wrote:

uh…

let me just say there are awesome cops who arrest you and then let you go an hour later and then some that are on administrative leave - i know them both sides

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#344 deep oil
January 18 2009, 10:03PM
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no hate mail yet...... lol

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#345 Travis Dakin
January 18 2009, 10:05PM
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What the hell?

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#346 APE
January 18 2009, 10:41PM
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Why was Potulny hs tonite? I hate Toby Reddox but I feel bad for him because it's through no fault of his own. Stupid Mac T... oh and god bless Ales Hemsky.

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#347 Jonathan Willis
January 18 2009, 11:10PM
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Well, sounds like I should have caught this game.

Incidentally, I think I'll start ripping Moreau before every game; it seems to help.

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#348 Jonathan Willis
January 18 2009, 11:25PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

My other point Jonathon, you talk about tough and soft minutes. Well it seems that all 1st line players are considered tough minutes. But if a team has a checking line that doesn’t score, wouldn’t they be harder minutes to play against as on offensive player? Just curious.

I've seen a number of different suggestions; ranking the opponents by ice-time (and therefore their coaches' trust), BehindtheNet uses a complicated +/- system, and I used the opposition's point-scoring ability for the AHL. All of these systems generally show very similar results.

I think BehindtheNet is closest to accurate - the goal in hockey after all is to score more than the opposition, so the best measure of that is an adjusted +/- (even it out for ice-time, strength of team, etc.). It's the reason why I don't have a ton of time for guys who are consistently minus players; teams don't win if they're constantly fishing the puck out of their own net. A guy who scores 30 goals and is responsible for 25 against is better for your team than a guy who scores 50 goals and allows 55 against at the end of the day, even though the 50-goal scorer is earning more coin.

In any case, Lecavalier plays the tough minutes, and has since Richards left. My problems with Lecavalier (admittedly an outstanding player) are that:

a) his point totals are inflated playing in the Southeast b) he isn't a consistent outscorer; he's had difficulty with that since Richards left and especially c) that contract

I think he'd be a great fit in Edmonton, but not for Hemsky. Also, if Horcoff is going the other way, it would be nice to get a veteran up the middle behind him.

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#349 Jonathan Willis
January 18 2009, 11:34PM
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deep oil wrote:

what does mom have on the stove tonight

friends from out of town - i got out of eating at my parents' place when i got a real job - phoenix is in financial trouble - moreau not being the first star is because he plays oldies when the kids want to hear hiphop - the classic rock crew is losing the room as a result - macts always been a country guy, which is the only thing him and penner agree on - have I lost you yet or are you still reading

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#350 Travis Dakin
January 18 2009, 11:53PM
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I'm still reading.... Go on...

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