Copper and blue: the big gulp
Robin Brownlee
October 02 2009 06:03PM
Of course the Edmonton Oilers are going to make Western Conference playoffs. It just won't happen this season, contrary to what Jason Gregor, Wanye Gretz, Amber McCormick, Jonathan Willis and Bingofuel, their lips stained with Copper and Blue Kool-Aid and their hearts once again swollen with the hope October brings, would have you believe.
I'm not sure how my, ahem, colleagues have come to the conclusion the Oilers, a team that adorns their bed sheets, pillow cases, pajamas and lunch kits, deserve the benefit of every doubt and will finish anywhere from fifth to eighth, but I guess faith and wanting it to be so really, really badly is enough.
Please, please, please, plus the addition of three grey-haired geezers named Pat Quinn, Tom Renney and Wayne Fleming, Nikolai Khabibulin, who was absolutely outstanding in the pre-season, and a penalty-killing unit that is obviously vastly improved, will apparently get it done.
Well, no.
Nag, nag, nag
Sorry to be Mr. Poopy Pants -- I'm actually not, but it's the polite thing to say -- but there's a lot of questions I haven't had answered through eight pre-season games. They nag me.
-- What have the Oilers done to address the need for a defensive centre who can win face-offs? Is Gilbert Brule that guy? What about Marc Pouliot, assuming at some point his pubic bone stops feeling like somebody dropped a can of lighter fluid and a lit match down his pants?
-- Barring the addition of somebody who can approach 50 per cent on the dot, is Shawn Horcoff going to have to take 93,056 face-offs again this season? And what will that do to Horcoff as he tries to bounce back from a 53-point campaign?
-- What marked improvement have we seen in penalty killing units that finished 27th last season? Can the PK, with the "new systems" in place and overseen by Kelly Buchberger, improve 10 spots? That would be 17th.
-- Is J.F. Jacques really a first-line left-winger? Really? While I liked what I saw in four of the five pre-season games he played, the 60 regular season games on his resume tempt me to reserve judgment he's the answer.
-- Khabibulin, 36, has played more than 55 games once in the last five seasons. Are you comfortable that Jeff Deslauriers is ready to play 25-27 games this season after getting into 10 in 2008-09?
-- If you've listened to Quinn the past couple off days, it's clear he's preaching patience when it comes to implementing new systems, seeing the team blend into a cohesive unit and develop an identity. How long will that take? Two weeks? Two months? And the Oilers record when this takes place will be . . .?
-- What team is going to drop out of the playoff picture so the Oilers can get in? St. Louis, which made it last season despite being riddled by injuries and played most of the season without Paul Kariya? Columbus, which has Derick Brassard and Nikita Filatov for a full season? Anaheim? Maybe Dany Heatley will bugger up the Sharks good and plenty.
No sale
Obviously, the Oilers can address some of the above questions by making personnel moves between now and trade deadline day, assuming they can create some salary cap space by then.
How, by the way, does a team mismanage its money and contracts so badly that it spends to the cap limit and remains a fringe contender looking to slide into the post-season in eighth-place? I digress.
Could the Oilers make the playoffs? Yes. They aren't so far off that it's inconceivable, if they get some breaks. The problem, obviously, is that having all the breaks fall your way seldom happens.
And if things work against them -- if Lubomir Visnovsky's shoulder isn't 100 per cent, if Khabibulin isn't a marked upgrade on Dwayne Roloson and Deslauriers isn't ready to pick up the slack, if Dustin Penner, Horcoff and Sam Gagner don't have bounce-back seasons, if it takes a month to get the hang of what Quinn is pitching -- what then?
There is always, I suppose, faith.
-- Listen to Robin Brownlee every Wednesday and Thursday from 4 to 6 p.m. on Just A Game with Jason Gregor on Team 1260.
hate you so much
I don't disagree, but...
Let's not forget the Oilers were in a playoff spot at the all-star break last season. And many believed the Oilers underperformed from their potential.
Amen,
I hope they learn to compete and find a magical way to shed a bad contract or two. Playoffs would be a major bonus.
The good news... hockey is a sport and anything can happen.
The alcoholism starts again tmr!
Stuart wrote:
You mean all the true believers who picked them to make the playoffs? Check the calendar again, then tell me how many days they were in a playoff spot and how many days they were out.
Good read Robin. For the most part I agree. But I'm sure the kids (includes Penner) and Horcoff will be better this year.
*pulls on pj's*
Oilers finish 6th. GOILERS!
*drinks kool-aid*
Red: Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.
Andy Dufresne: [in letter to Red] Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.
Well put, Robin. The spin doctoring going on with the club about how we have great skill and emerging players can't hide the fact that there are massive holes in the squad. Sure, there is individual talent. But there are missing pieces that are required to be a successful team. Management didn't address them and, like you, I shake my head at their mismanagement of their cap situation and contract numbers. Management has no one to blame but themselves for creating this situation.
Answer me this, Riddler . . . do you think that there might be changes in the overall management structure if the team doesn't make the playoffs again? Or is there groupthink going on in the corridors of power on Kingsway?
Were undefeated so far. I believe.
the players have to make it happen, plain and simple. retroactive perspectives give us a possible scenario but its never destiny. hell, we seen the Penguins come back to beat the Wings down 3 games to 1. the Oilers making the playoffs is hardly impossible, the players just need to mature and take their job seriously. some guys on this team, Hemsky included, need to grow the balls of what real hockey players do - score goals at any cost. this whole philosophy of "setting up a goal is more noble" is fine and dandy in fantasy land and romanticized documentaries about players - but the fact is - scoring goals wins games. every player on this team needs to grow more balls and attempt to score. every time Grebeshkov doesnt shoot the puck when he has the chance he should be spanked by Papa Smurf Quinn on the bench. Dustin Penner should turn into Tim Kerr, regardless of him being Jolly and Fun off the ice. get f***ing mean. its hockey. not rollerhockey.
This article needed to be written.
Management has failed to address the holes...AGAIN. Everything starting with the Khabibulin & Brodziak moves, through the Heatly saga has reeked of desperation. These are the things that need to go right for the Oiler's to make the playoffs:
1. Khabibulin needs to play well, because the only other option is JDD
2. Khabibulin needs to stay healthy, because the only other option is JDD
3. Horcoff needs to stay healthy because they don't have another guy who can win a faceoff and play the other team's top lines.
4. All have Nillson, Gagner, Penner and to a lesser extent, Cogliano need to have bounce back years.
5. JFJ, he of the legendary streak with no NHL goals, is pencilled in to be our top line winger. He needs to be lights-out, because even of Penner moves ujp and plays well, there's no one on the 2nd line.
If even one of these things goes wrong, we're sunk...
The question I wonder most about is whether we are simply content to sneak into the playoffs every year or are we more interested in building a contending team. The past three seasons, the team seems to be built to sneak in with some luck. What about an eye on developing towards the future where we can honestly say that we are a contending team?
Archaeologuy wrote:
Optimism at it's most impressive.
Brownlee is most likely right, but the season has yet to start and as such the Crazy Train is a more enjoyable ride than the LRT. Besides, ~Kariya and St. Louis (the team, not the player) looked horrible today and as such are ripe to be knocked out of the playoffs~.
Sidenote: Tampa Bay won its first game in europe last year too. So St. Louis will finish second, last.
Archaeologuy wrote:
Yes, but the points totals project to the Oilers finishing 164 points behind the Flames.
Robin Brownlee wrote:
WooHoo! Brownlee said it so it must come true.
Well Thanks Robin... Now I suppose you're gonna tell us theres no Santa Claus!
Well Robin, I hope you're wrong about the Oilers' chances. However, the heavy feeling in my stomach tells me that you make many good points. Looks like I'm going to have to hit the Nicorette double-time this year.
Robin: Do you think the Oilers management see the holes in the team? What are your thoughts on why they have taken the approach that they have, other than they have tied their own hands? Do you get the idea they rationalize the situation to themselves?
Do 4 of you out there really think the Oil will finish first in the West?
if the bruins can finish the east with Thomas in net and Kreijci as their #2 center...
the oilers can the same with Khabi in net and Comrie.
you call yourselves oiler fans. you're a disgrace.
call is realistic. you're all just giving before the season even started. who cares about last year? let's talk about this year.
I predict an 11th - 14th place finish in the West. I hope we don't trade what could easily be a top-5 pick this year, and top-10 almost assuredly.
Sorry Oiler fans, but that's my prediction. That said, watching these guys play under Pat Quinn should be more exciting and entertaining. Let's hope that's the case.
is => *it
Spottheloon wrote:
Yeah, what they need is a new GM calling the shots. No, a new OWNER is what they need. And while you're at it, wipe out 75% of the coaching staff too, they're a bunch of bums. Might as well drop the goalie coach and video coach for good measure.
Settle down guys. After we beat the piss out of the Flames tomorrow night optimism will once again rule all of Oil Country.
1 more sleep!!!!
Must have forgotten my ~'s.
Smokin' Ray wrote:
OH YEAH!
I have to agree with you Brownlee.
The team has these stupid contracts for mediocre players.
Its ridiculous, that combined with sub par drafting (aside from hesky and a couple others)
But these guys jsut seem to run around, like chcikens with their heads cut off.
The special teams are awful, and no one can tell me they dont give up after ahead 2 goals.
I just dont think the oilers can pick it up and win, they will finish 8th at best.
and if they dont I will wax my entire body for money for kids who cant afford to paly hockey if they finish higher than 8th I am serious too.
We are the Flames a decade ago a god awful team who struggles to make psot season, and will eventually be good when you get rid of these stupid contracts, get world class 80 point players and actually WIN.
I love my Oil but I am a realist
Robin Brownlee wrote:
Give me until at least the end of the first period before I throw these guys under the bus.
Holy Crap Robin! You sound exactly like my dad. Bitter and Grumpy! I had a few laughs at your post. Honestly, the Oilers had the skill and talent last year to squeeze in but lacked the coaching and drive to play. This year even the players are excited about this years opportunity. The Oilers may surprise everyone and finish this year in 7th. Yes, some may laugh it off, but this team is going to different and has made some changes to add team toughness and change the dynamics of the M to F mundane tactics from last year. GO OILERS GO!
@ Robin Brownlee:
You sound a lot like Lowetide... and I respect you both. Damn it.
If Moreau is unable to play tomorrow Horcoff will be the ONLY Oiler forward over thirty... Heck Other than Comrie is anyone else even 27? This is not a recipe for success. (Yet everyone in the oilogosphere is ready to run Moreau out of town...)
Good organizations don't spend to the cap to ice a marginal team. Good organizations don't miss the playoffs year in and year out. Good organizations address needs in the offseason...
By my estimation there are about twenty teams that look more competative than the Oilers... and most of them have better farm teams and more cap space...
Spottheloon wrote:
Yes they do. We all know about the pitch they made to get Heatley, so they weren't sitting and twiddling their thumbs. I still don't understand why they didn't address the need for a face-off guy because that's not necessarily a big money move.
Reagan wrote:
Maybe I am . . .
@ Robin Brownlee: Judging by your photo I would say your a pesimist. That proved correct today!
The Oilers were in and out of a playoff spot until the last 10 games,that is a fact. That is one of Brownlee's points of view, but it doesn't erase the fact that they WERE IN THE PLAYOFF HUNT UNTIL THE LAST 10 GAMES.
Think back and remember the Nashville game, the Montreal game and the game in which the dumb-ass Oiler defenseman waved at the puck like crazy and missed it. That lead to a breakaway goal and overtime loss. Those AND A FEW OTHER GAMES, were overtime losses that the Oilers should have won and had leads. The trend continues in some of the last 10 games.
There are two key situations to keep an eye out on: 1. What happens in the first 20 games. If they are at or near .500, they are in great shape. If not, see u next year.
2. The Colorado series, the Phoenix series. If they dominate those series and even out against the likes of L.A., Nashville, Minny and a few others, who are at about the same level (a little bit over, a little bit under), they are also in great shape.
The games against the RedWings, Penguins, Sharks and a few others have to be seen as bonus points games if they get any. Remember, this is last year's team with MOTIVATION.
ALSO REMEMBER THIS SAYING: "THAT IS WHY THEY PLAY THE GAME"........
My prediction Oilers finish 6th to 10th if things go right 6th if things go wrong 10th
I want to believe the team will be better. I want to believe Quinn/Renny will make a huge difference... But let's shut off the koolaid and look at some facts.
The Oilers are skating into the 2009/2010 campaign with no wiggle room under the cap.
The lineup that will skate against Calgary tomorrow has not been upgraded. In fact, tomorrows lineup has less experience and established success than the lineup that finished last season.
Last season the Oilers finished 21st in the league. They were ranked 22nd on the PP. They were ranked 27th on the PK They were 26th in shot/outshot ratio. They were 22nd in goals against. They were 18th in scoring... Woohoo!
If you look at the company we share (league bottom feeders) we are the only organization spending to the cap.
Edmonton to finish 7th or 8th in the company of Annaheim or Columbus? Really? Both those teams have much better rosters than the Oilers. The Oilers are more comparable to Phoenix!
Now before you all howl... remember that Phoenix has also had a coaching change, has many good young players ~just waiting to take that next step forward~, and was in 5th place last season at the all-star break. Phoenix just tailed off a little sooner than Edmonton and goaltending was the main culprit... Oh wait... Don't the Oilers have a rather glaring question mark in net? Just sayin...
Robin
At what point does the famous Olympic jink come into play this year? As I recall, a great deal of the Oilers fortune in 2006 could be attributed to emotional exhaustion of many of the better players in the teams ahead of us. How many Oilers are going to the Olympics this year besides maybe Hemsky?
Also. All fans have to live on during the season is Faith, and faith knows nothing of assumed future reality.
@RB, Don't cloud the issue with facts, please. :)
Now, that being said, I must say that I agree with you. To many questions, to little change. Fortunately, for me this is entertainment, not a life-choice. I like watching a team that wins just about every game, just like I can't watch a team doomed to failure. The Oil have kept getting my view because you never know what you are going to get.
Over the next 82 games (yes, I believe it's just 82), please don't forget that this is entertainment.
Good to see someone who actually has the guts to tell it like it his RB. It is rather concerning/baffling how the Oilers have mismanaged its contract and salary cap situation. As you alluded to, there is no point in being an upper limit cap team if you are not a cup contender - that is just not how the system works. Teams develop young talent, they become more expensive as they become RFAs, and then by the time that core of players are on the verge of getting big UFA paydays there is about a 2 year window perhaps before the salary cap breaks a good chunk of the team up. Rinse and repeat lol. As for the Oilers though, they are not contenders this year, and next year they have no significant contracts expiring and have RFAs to sign along with a falling cap to deal with. They will have a fair bit of roster turnover for the sake of cap issues alone, likely going with younger players like Chorney and Peckham and moving out a big ticket veteran contract or two (that someone would want). Sorry for being so longwinded Robin, but does not this organization right now seem like one that is vainly trying to win now without wanting to realize what it takes to put together a real cup contender? The Khabi signing and Heatley deal seem to point to that. And we all know Katz's motto...
Brownlee is 100% correct world. They may get better but not likely this year
WILL SOMEBODY PLEASE SPIKE THE KOOL-AID!
Well at least we have hot ice gir...
Ah crap. I got nothing.
Nice dose of reality. The truth hurts....
I hate you Brownlee because you are a truthspeaker. I really want to be a believer but it is impossible to look at the competition in the west and figure out who this team is going to finish ahead of. While I wish it wasn't true San Jose, anaheim, Detroit, Chicago, Calgary, and Vancouver are locks barring disaster. Who does that leave for the Oil to pass? Columbus? The Wild?
Fact is we need a lot of things to break really right AND a lot of things to break really bad for some othe teams if the Oil hope to get a look at the second season.
Sigh, I wish it wasn't true, but...it is.
@ Pouzar: Appreciate the sentiment, but it's not guts. I have no emotional investment in the team, so it's as simple as looking at what's what and making a call. Gregor's not a fan of the Oilers, either, but I figure he's just wrong on this one. Jenga wrote:
You sweet talker, you . . .
Robin
Do you know who the Oilers are playing on the PK? Which forwards and which defencemen?
For all the talk about losing faceoffs, the PK problems were just as much with the Dmen. Which dman on this team is a shutdown dman? Gilbert and Grebs are good 5-5 but for some reason are very lousy at the PK.
Is there any way to find out who was on the ice the most last season for the Oilers when a goal was scored while they were killing a penalty? a sort of PK +- stat?
Just a visual observation, I think Grebs and Vish were the worst with Gilbert a close third.
ON another topic. has anyone thought what the Oilers would look like if Lowe had not blown up the team when he traded Ryan Smyth?
Horcoff HemSky Smyth
Cogliano Lupul Voracek (they would not have gotten Gagner because they would not have been so bad if they had not traded Smyth)
SToll Torres Pisani
Moreau Brodziak Stortini
Smyth's money went to Penner, so they still had the money to sign Souray. So the D would be: Souray Hejda Gilbert Grebs Staios Smid
I don't care what anyone thinks, this team above is a much better team than what they are rolling out. better 5-5, better pp, better pk.
Lowe should have just signed Smyth , kept Lupul, kept Hejda, etc. and they would be much much better than they are now.
what good has Nilsson, Plante and O'Marra done or going to do? They would dump Nilsson in a heart beat if they could, Plante will never be as good as a dozen UFA 31 year old dmen the Oil could have signed for under $1.5 million this year (so a wasted pick), and O'MArra will probably never play an NHL game.
Great move Lowe, you are a genious.
"Where Will The Oilers Finishg This Year? .... 7th people, really?!?!
New coaching staff aside I thought most of would be savvy enough to A) lower expectations and B) tone down the optimism/blind faith/homeristic wing'n'prayer!
Well.. please be disappointed when the boys don't make the dancefloor come LA PRIMAVERA.
Not sayin' but I'm sayin...
I agree with Brownlee, the oils wont make the playoffs. How can a team afford to spend more than 10 million dollars on guys like Moreau, Staois, Pisani, Pouliot and Nilsson. We should get rid of everyone on that list except Pisani. Resign @ the end of the season for 1 mil max. Maybe trade the rest for a 3rd and 4th line centre like marty reasoner who can take faceoffs and kill penalties. I cant believe we are stuck with some of these pluggers for the next 2-3 years
Great job KLOWE.
BarryS wrote:
Aren't Gilbert and O'Sullivan playing for the Yanks? and Grebs for the Russians?
The shopping list of deficiencies has been around in some form for 10 years, why should this year be any different, for that matter every team below the top 5 in the west have the same list - power forward, toughness, goaltending, stay healthy, Power Play, etc. We are slightly improved from last year, last year was close enough that FANS get to give their team the benefit of the doubt. 6 through 14 is a crapshoot, and the team that finds the answer's to the shopping list above gets to claim 6,7,and 8. Our chance to find those answer's is just as good as LA, CBJ, Blues, etc. Of course by the quarter mark if we haven't made headway we're dead, but at game 1, we're in come April.