Deep Thoughts XIV: Chicken Little is an Oilers fan
Robin Brownlee
October 26 2009 11:48AM
Here in the Heartland of Hockey, the line separating giddy elation from the depths of despair is thinner than a runway fashion model who considers Red Bull and cigarettes a balanced diet.
That line, if you read the comments of Edmonton Oilers fans here and elsewhere, is exactly two games wide. On one side of it, hope abounds, like after last Thursday's 6-4 win over Columbus. Dustin Penner could have been elected mayor and Pat Quinn was a genius for assembling the best first line since Mark Messier had hair in Penner, Sam Gagner and Ales Hemsky.
On the other side of it, unabashed self-loathing and back-biting that makes an emo kid seem a raving optimist after a pair of weekend losses — 5-2 in Calgary Saturday and 2-0 in Vancouver Sunday. WTF? How could anything suck so bad. Hopes dashed. Time to cut.
It's a line passionate Oilers fans walk so clumsily, it's difficult not to applaud them one second and laugh out loud the next. Don't take my word for it, take a look at the GDB comments here for the past two games. For a generation hooked on instant gratification, what you get is what you've got.
At 6-2-1, Oilers fans were on top of the world. At 6-4-1, Tom Gilbert and Denis Grebeshkov have been exposed as clowns, Shawn Horcoff is stealing money from Daryl Katz and Ethan Moreau should have the C ripped off his chest yesterday. Is that about right?
I shudder at the thought of a loss to Colorado Tuesday.
After eleven
I get it there's reason for concern about how the Oilers have played after the last couple of games, notably the realization Grebeshkov and Ten Thumbs Tommy aren't nearly ready for the kind of minutes they've been force-fed with Sheldon Souray and Steve Staios out, but really folks.
Isn't 13 points through 11 games about where you'd expect the Oilers to be? You didn't know that 13 points by Penner, Gagner and Hemsky was a one-shot deal not to be repeated? Or that Gilbert and Grebeshkov, as a pairing, is sketchy at best because neither one can hold his own in the defensive end of the rink when the heat is on? Really?
While we tend to roll our eyes at cliches like, "Don't the highs get too high or the lows get too low," Oilers fans could do themselves a favour by putting down the Pepto-Bismol and heeding that well-worn bit of advice.
- No, Penner isn't going to score 60 goals this season. No, Horcoff isn't going to struggle like he has offensively through 82 games. He'll get 50-55 points, even with this horrid start. There's a middle ground with both.
- No, Gilbert shouldn't be traded for a box of tape and a bag of pucks. He isn't this bad. He just isn't as good as those who were fooled by his points totals last season projected him to be.
- Yes, the loss of Souray and Staios to injuries and the flu-bug that's hit the team has hurt, even if Quinn isn't using it as a crutch. What we've seen the last several games isn't the line-up Quinn has wanted, it's the line-up he's been able to cobble together. That holds true for the wins and the losses.
- Yes, Patrick O'Sullivan can break a pane of glass with his shot, it just doesn't look that way right now.
The way I see it
- I've been asked a few times if Gilbert's trade value is being hurt by his performance in the early going.
First, I don't have it from anybody that the Oilers are even trying to trade Gilbert, even if I think they should. Second, pro scouting departments of NHL teams don't put nearly as much value in short segments of seasons as fans do. So, while Gilbert hasn't done anything to increase his value, he hasn't plummeted as a commodity, either.
Teams that liked Gilbert last season still like him, even with his obvious limitations. Smart staffs aren't fooled by how bad he's been this season just like they weren't fooled by his inflated points totals in 2008-09.
- Gilbert Brule, when he isn't puking his guts out with the flu, is a keeper. If Andrew Cogliano gets moved at some point, Brule will more likely be the reason why than Gagner will be.
- Had the Oilers done anything on those five-on-three power plays over the weekend we'd probably be talking about a 1-1 split instead of 0-2. Without the threat of Souray on the point, not having Mike Comrie dealing off the half-wall hurt the PP even more.
-- Listen to Robin Brownlee every Wednesday and Thursday from 4 to 6 p.m. on Just A Game with Jason Gregor on TEAM 1260.
@ Brownlee. I see the Avs game tuesday as a kind of litmus test... playoff teams tend to pull out of slumps quickly.
OH MY GOD, WE'RE NEVER GOING TO WIN AGAIN. KILL ME NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!! AAAAGGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!!
Moreau should've had that C ripped of everytime he takes a stupid penalty and it's not stealing if you sign the check.
At this point I'm really not all that concerned. What we loss two in a row, big deal. We are use to losing 4 or 5, when that happens I will start to worry.
Not sure how anyone can make an accurate assesment of this team right now. Between injuries and guys having 5 point nights, you just can't make a call one way or another.
It was a matter of time with all the injuries and the Flu, give them time Quinn had them playing great with HIS lineup wait and see how they play when some guys come back.
Oil fans' Vodka of Choice: BiPolar Ice
~We suck! We can't win! Our players are sick! Dustin Penner is pointless in 1 game! HELP US ALL!!!
*sky falls*
@Ogden Brother Jr.
~You mean despite the fact the Oilers were on pace to have a 100point season... then dropped a game to Vancouver on the second night of a back to back with thier backup tender facing Luongo isn't reason to panic?~
~IF THE OILERS LOSE ONE MORE GAME IM BECOMING A FLAMES FAN~
You nailed it on the second part, but hey people bitch and complain about everything when we were winning so why would it be different when we lose?
When you have a 5 on 3, you really should score every time. I don't care who the other team is; there's no excuse.
The thing about last night's game wasn't that they lost, but rather that they played a sloppy and uninspired game. I think I would be disappointed (granted, considerably less) if they had won.
@Brownlee "•No, Gilbert shouldn't be traded for a box of tape and a bag of pucks. He isn't this bad. He just isn't as good as those who were fooled by his points totals last season projected him to be."
I admit, I was fooled by the wavy locks, the James Dean attitude and the huge bowl full of 2nd assists to pick him as a sleeper in my pool. Dang you Tom!
So, today everything is tilde material? That's a far cry from:
"I hope Quinn calls out Horcr@p." AND "Losing is bad enough...But its inexcusable when its to bloody Vancouver or Calgary....Arghhhh I flippin hate Vancouver with a bleeding passion." AND "...how the $%#$ long does it take to set up a decent PP? Hemsky useless again. Can somebody else try to run the PP???" AND "Gilbert did make a nice play on that Kesler partial break....if he does that 74 more times he will make up for all the give aways." AND "Seriously O'Sullivan, I'm going to go all "dad" on you if you don't stop shooting the puck at the god damn Vancouver defensemen! Great. Just f*cking great. Worst weekend for sports ever. If anyone needs me I'll be writing strongly worded letters to every one of the Oilers, minus JDD. The good news is he has looked pretty stellar so far."
Good post Robin...the fine, fickle fans of Edmonton - you've got to love the passion, but maybe not the logic.
Anyway, my beef is not with the team, it's with Sportsnet. While I'm not a big fan of Debrusk and Quinn, they are not bad. But the little excerpts over to Gene, who is trying to be a Ron MacLean, are painful. There is a huge difference between MacLean's very intelligent humour, and Gene's cupcake fluff.
And near the end of the Van game they give the 'Right Player' award to Stortini. Now I'm not a big fan of him, and thought he was brutal on the power play...but do think he is a good role player for them (fighting Hordichuk, drawing a penalty from Iginla), but when they site that one of the reasons was his physical play on Luongo and highlight his stick to the back of Luongo's head...which killed the last minute of a powerplay and then gave Vancouver a PP instead - seems a little dumb to me in a (at the time) 1-0 game.
Regarding Moreau...maybe he is a leader in the room, but his penalties are beyond forgiving. He gives a 'forearm to head' hit in one of the games...what would you possibly accomplish with that. Don't remember the player he hit, but it wasn't anyone we were trying to send a message to.
I coach PeeWee hockey and would bench any kid who made that play...but let me correct myself, my players aren't dumb enough to do that in the first place.
Enjoy your posts Robin and hearing you on JAG.
"Here in the Heartland of Hockey, the line separating giddy elation from the depths of despair is thinner than a runway fashion model who considers Red Bull and cigarettes a balanced diet."
Absolutely hilarious Sir. Well played.
@Jedsdead
Sorry to hear about Jed . . .
Obviously I did not expect the Oilers to win every game but having 3 of our 5 losses come at the hands of the flames is a kick in the balls. That's what irks me the most.
@Robin Brownlee
thx (sniff)...he was a closet Habs fan for many years. And after the disappointments of the last few years, the only thing keeping him alive was the futility of the Leafs, and the ugly Penner trade which made Lowe look like a fool. Penners 5 point night was too much for the already broken heart.
If you have a problem with Gene, then you gotta problem with me!! Keep it up Gino...I think you're a witty SOB!
~can we still blame MacT and the Macblender?~
Then put me on your list Rusty.
While I think Gene is a good guy, I keep expecting him to bring out Casey and Finnegan at the end of each bit. Or maybe he will look way up and find Rusty the Rooster...hey wait a minute.....
I hope they work on the PP once they actually get a day or two break for practicing.
Robin;
So we're ten games into the new coaching regime which can probably be considered a benchmark of sorts. Atleast in terms of starting to get a temperature on how they view the players.
Are you seeing anything that would suggest some of the guys that haven't played that well so far are doing so because they are struggling with the change?
Penner is obviously talked about as a great example of a guy that has benefitted from it but it stands to reason that for every guy that reponds positively there will probably be another one that suddenly finds himself struggling with it.
In other words we all had a pretty good sense of who MacT's guys were, are you guys starting to get a sense of who's emerging as Quinn's guys?
The weekend didn't do anything to change the fact that Horcoff hasn't played anything remotely resembling an effective game this year. Yes, he taking a lot of faceoffs, but so do Crosby, Thornton and Statsny (Horcoff takes 1 or 2 more per game), and they seem to make out OK. Now I don't expect him to produce on their level, but it shouldn't be an excuse to use for his offensive production.
The part that really worries me is that his penalty killing and defensive play is terrible. His FO% while shorthanded is awful, which leads me to believe that his wingers are more responsible for his even strength FO% that he is, and he is -6. I know he plays against the toughest competition, but that's why he's getting $7 million this year and is a $5.5 million cap hit.
I hear his agent is getting a lifetime achievement from the NHLPA.
Brownlee wrote: "Gilbert Brule, when he isn't puking his guts out with the flu, is a keeper. If Andrew Cogliano gets moved at some point, Brule will more likely be the reason why than Gagner will be."
People were critical of MacT for allowing a clear pecking order to be established. This is foolishness because a clear pecking order always exists. I listen to all the player interviews and it's funny to me that players like Penner and O'Sullivan talk about how its easier to maintain their "confidence" knowing that the coach won't yell at them or bench them for making a "mistake"... but conversely other players like Gagner openly acknowledge that due to "internal competition" he has to pay careful attention to all the details or he could fall back down the depth chart. The clean slate talk is finally coming to an end... and the pecking order in Edmonton has been reestablished. Brule has passed Cogliano under the new regime and may well be moved before the deadline.
I hear his agent is getting a lifetime achievement *award* from the NHLPA.
Holy misplaced modifier. Cogliano may well be moved before the deadline. *I should really read my own stuff before I hit post.*
How does crystal leriger remain so positive in such tremendously dark times?
Oh so its not just me that thinks the captain sucks .I dont think cogs playing with him is gona do much for his career either .
~I already became a Canucks fan last night. Based on the game and projecting, they're going to win their final 71 games handily and Luongo is a lock for the Vezina. How could you not cheer for that? By the same token, projecting the Oil the same way puts them at 6-75-1 with the lowest goal-scoring totals in NHL history. Anyone who doesn't get off the bus now is SOOOOO stupid . . . ~
Was reading Lowetide... Apparently Predergast has been at three consecutive Habs games... Is there a deal cooking or does KP like poutine? Brownlee? Here is a link to an article out of Montreal:
hxxp://montreal.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20091025/mtl_habs2_091025/20091025/?hub=MontrealHome
His future was in question before, if Brule can come even close to maintaining this level then hopefully a deal centerd around Cogs for Steckle (as was hinted at) can be made.
We said RB, well said.
Oilers fans can be a bunch of arm-chair coaches and gm's. Just like brownlee says, settle people, settle.
Now if you can turn this article into an irritant, it's going to be a fun Wednesday listening to you and Gregor.
The loss of our on ice leader Souray has left a void on the roster, we're a different team with him in the line-up. The list of passengers on our club is starting to get backed up, Horcoff, Moreau, Gilbert, Nilsson etc.
Our current captain isn't noticable anymore unless he's taking an ill timed or bad penalty, i'm sure by now Pat Quinn must've givin Tambellini a list of guys whom Pat feels can no longer contribute to this team going forward. Steve may give Ethan a small list of possible destinations for him to chose from.....wish we could put Ethans heart into Robert Nilssons body.
So instead of signing a Steckel like player in the off-season we are going to trade one of our best young players for one?
Hey remember when we came back against Columbus? Those were great times.
It's just frustrating watching the team come out flat two games in a row, against division rivals, and the two teams the majority of us loathe with a firey passion. Once we get over this injury/flu bug hump things will pick up again, and hopefully Quinn will be able to put away his "Craig MacTavish Line Blending" book. And I've said it before and I'll keep saying it, Quinn's strategy of playing the forwards in the high slot rather than tight to the point clearly isn't working as well as he'd like. Perhaps it's time for him to reevaluate it.
I never thought I would hear myself say this, but I thought Nilsson has played pretty well the last few games. He's obviously not contributing offensively, but he is finishing checks and has been one of the hardest skaters on the backcheck.
And Quinn has given him some decent minutes during tough situations, which indicates he feels the same.
Thing is Tambo himself probably realized this last year, but it isn't exactly easy to trade guys making a couple mil that don't bring soemthing special every night.
Also maybe next time Moreau goes under the knife we make the switch.
Wow.
Just heard Kevin (winds and fires) Quinn on Stauffer.
To summarize...
"I don't want to sound like an apologist.....but I'm sorry, the Oilers would be the best team in the history of the world, if they didn't have such a rotten case of the sniffles."
Stauffer was actually being critical, Quinn "well, sure Bob I agree that Nilsson isn't good enough...but he smells so nice, and has a dreamy smile."
My reasoning:
I don't know a tonne about Steckle (and to truely grade 3rd line centers, I think you need to watch a pile of film...ie it's their attributes that doubt show in the highlight packages or stat sheet). So I was going off of what Brownlee said (which I'm assuming he's gotten from scouts/NHL people ect) that Steckle is a PREMIER third line center in the leauge. Also, for whateve reason, we were incapable of signing a proper 3rd line center this off season.... in a trade we can at least be sure we got one comeing (rather then leave it to chance in the summer again)
Coles notes: I wouldn't trade Cogs for just any third line center, but I would trade him for a top 3-5 league wide third line center.
Yes, the Oilers blew chunks over the weekend, but even in their losses there's a higher level of intensity in their game - it makes them a more entertaining team to watch than last year. The 08-09 Oilers would have been defeated after going down a couple goals, while this year's version continued to try and make a game of it. It's going to take a lot more than this weekend for me to lose the optimism I have for this team.
Captain Obvious says "6-4-1 - If we keep up this pace we could make the playoffs."
The sky isn't falling but if you have two eyes then you can see that the Oilers had two miserable games. Some players have struggled mightily including Horcoff and Gilbert even during the wins. Don't buy that Brownlee hyperbole.
I am not ready to worry about the sky falling (yet) as I thought the guys looked okay, with the obvious exceptions of the inability to give or receive a pass. That and the million turnovers. But other than that they looked...well actually they all looked tired and beat up. ~the sky is falling!!!~
Seriously though. I hope this flu bug runs its course in a hurry and we can get back to kicking some ass.
Perhaps we could sneak Brule and Comrie into Calgary's dressing room. It is nice to share once in a while. : )
Rank Name Team Pos. GP G A P +/- EVP PPP HomeP RoadP OwnDivP OtherDivP P/G
5 Marian Gaborik NYR R 11 8 7 15 5 11 4 7 8 3 12 1.36
6 Dustin Penner EDM R 11 8 7 15 8 11 4 10 5 5 10 1.36 EVP = Even Strength Points PPP = Power Play Points HomeP = Home Points RoadP = Road Points You get the rest.
Just promoting my Star this year :D Go Penner!!!
So why make the trade we have Horcoff already.
Honestly Steckel can't be that much better then Malhotra. The guy has zero offensive ability. Maybe one point this year, so right there I could see us probably wanting to move Steckel a game after we got him. Steckel doesn't hit and he doesn't block shots. He does play alot of PK time and he is pretty good at the faceoff dot. I just don't see us giving Coglinao unless we are getting a great pick with Steckel.
Because Horc isn't enough, we need a 2nd Horcoff.
In the summer I asked about Malhotra vs Steckel, Brownlee indicated that Steckel was held in far higher regards around the league.
Anyways, the names don't really matter. My point is: If Brule passes Cogs on the depth chart and is a long term piece of the puzzle, then I'd like to swap Cogs for a top 3, third line center. Think 26 year old Mike Peca.
Sure Horcoff isn't as bas as he's played this season, but I don't see him hitting 55 pts not playing with Hemsky and of the no.1 pp unit.
If everyone would just listen to Just a Game on 'POSITIVE FRIDAYS' everything will be alright!! When Yakkity Sacks is playing at the beginning of every segment it is impossible to be negative.
On another note, did Kevin Weekes bother anyone else during Saturday's color commentary?
I think Steckel is held in a higher regard because of his work ethic, but in terms of everything else Brodziak is quite similiar to Steckel. Oddly enough Brodziak is Minny's top forward on the PK, he is just about their top faceoff man.
Just a few thoughts... With the recent injuries/illness along with loading up our top line, we've lost our balanced scoring lines that we're winning games for us.
Missing Stone and Comrie shouldn't hurt us this bad, but when it means that we see Stortini getting power play time and Peckham or Strudwick on the wing, it's a big problem for this team. Vancouver was smart to take penalties with our top line on the ice as they had to go to the bench at the start of the power plays.
I imagine that moving SMac would be a good thing to clear up a roster spot. For a cap team, our lack of depth in the face of injuries is a concern.
Robin Brownlee, does anyone have any idea when Souray might return? Hopefully we get "Big Sexy" back sooner rather than later.