Deep Thoughts XIV: Chicken Little is an Oilers fan
Robin Brownlee
October 26 2009 11:48AM
Here in the Heartland of Hockey, the line separating giddy elation from the depths of despair is thinner than a runway fashion model who considers Red Bull and cigarettes a balanced diet.
That line, if you read the comments of Edmonton Oilers fans here and elsewhere, is exactly two games wide. On one side of it, hope abounds, like after last Thursday's 6-4 win over Columbus. Dustin Penner could have been elected mayor and Pat Quinn was a genius for assembling the best first line since Mark Messier had hair in Penner, Sam Gagner and Ales Hemsky.
On the other side of it, unabashed self-loathing and back-biting that makes an emo kid seem a raving optimist after a pair of weekend losses — 5-2 in Calgary Saturday and 2-0 in Vancouver Sunday. WTF? How could anything suck so bad. Hopes dashed. Time to cut.
It's a line passionate Oilers fans walk so clumsily, it's difficult not to applaud them one second and laugh out loud the next. Don't take my word for it, take a look at the GDB comments here for the past two games. For a generation hooked on instant gratification, what you get is what you've got.
At 6-2-1, Oilers fans were on top of the world. At 6-4-1, Tom Gilbert and Denis Grebeshkov have been exposed as clowns, Shawn Horcoff is stealing money from Daryl Katz and Ethan Moreau should have the C ripped off his chest yesterday. Is that about right?
I shudder at the thought of a loss to Colorado Tuesday.
After eleven
I get it there's reason for concern about how the Oilers have played after the last couple of games, notably the realization Grebeshkov and Ten Thumbs Tommy aren't nearly ready for the kind of minutes they've been force-fed with Sheldon Souray and Steve Staios out, but really folks.
Isn't 13 points through 11 games about where you'd expect the Oilers to be? You didn't know that 13 points by Penner, Gagner and Hemsky was a one-shot deal not to be repeated? Or that Gilbert and Grebeshkov, as a pairing, is sketchy at best because neither one can hold his own in the defensive end of the rink when the heat is on? Really?
While we tend to roll our eyes at cliches like, "Don't the highs get too high or the lows get too low," Oilers fans could do themselves a favour by putting down the Pepto-Bismol and heeding that well-worn bit of advice.
- No, Penner isn't going to score 60 goals this season. No, Horcoff isn't going to struggle like he has offensively through 82 games. He'll get 50-55 points, even with this horrid start. There's a middle ground with both.
- No, Gilbert shouldn't be traded for a box of tape and a bag of pucks. He isn't this bad. He just isn't as good as those who were fooled by his points totals last season projected him to be.
- Yes, the loss of Souray and Staios to injuries and the flu-bug that's hit the team has hurt, even if Quinn isn't using it as a crutch. What we've seen the last several games isn't the line-up Quinn has wanted, it's the line-up he's been able to cobble together. That holds true for the wins and the losses.
- Yes, Patrick O'Sullivan can break a pane of glass with his shot, it just doesn't look that way right now.
The way I see it
- I've been asked a few times if Gilbert's trade value is being hurt by his performance in the early going.
First, I don't have it from anybody that the Oilers are even trying to trade Gilbert, even if I think they should. Second, pro scouting departments of NHL teams don't put nearly as much value in short segments of seasons as fans do. So, while Gilbert hasn't done anything to increase his value, he hasn't plummeted as a commodity, either.
Teams that liked Gilbert last season still like him, even with his obvious limitations. Smart staffs aren't fooled by how bad he's been this season just like they weren't fooled by his inflated points totals in 2008-09.
- Gilbert Brule, when he isn't puking his guts out with the flu, is a keeper. If Andrew Cogliano gets moved at some point, Brule will more likely be the reason why than Gagner will be.
- Had the Oilers done anything on those five-on-three power plays over the weekend we'd probably be talking about a 1-1 split instead of 0-2. Without the threat of Souray on the point, not having Mike Comrie dealing off the half-wall hurt the PP even more.
-- Listen to Robin Brownlee every Wednesday and Thursday from 4 to 6 p.m. on Just A Game with Jason Gregor on TEAM 1260.
Losing Stone/Comrie wouldn't have been a big deal if MAP/Pie were healthy to take their place. I don't know if theirs a team in the league that can insert their 15th/16th forward without missing a serious beat.
People have been calling for moreau's head ("C") since the the preseason..
Another reason Cogs could be pushed out, MPS...
There is a few guys that could make the team next year, but I will wait and see before I move someone to open up a spot for them.
Ogden,
That's a fair point that you've made. I guess though if/when Pisani returns, there will be salary cap issues that will force some player movement. Given the amount of games/ice time that he's played, I myself am not quite sure why we're hanging on to Steve MacIntyre.
We have been hit pretty hard with injuries and illness affecting our forwards and defense at the same time. I hope that Comrie's back for Tuesday's game. Comrie/Horcoff/O'Sullivan looks a hell of a lot better to me than having Moreau in Comrie's slot. As well, with Moreau back on the fourth line with Cogliano and Stortini, the overall lines look much better.
Nice comprehension. That's exactly what I said, so where's the hyperbole?
@Hands McDangles
YES! I was thinking the same thing! There is just something about his style that bothers me... he is almost too NFL like or something?!?
@I'm a Scientist!
Re: Kevin Weekes His reaction to that routine glove save on O'Sullivan was ridiculous and at one point when the Flames were dominating, he said i could be 10-2 without Khabibulin...I almost threw up.
Yeah I heard that too, everyone is giving Calgary too much credit. The only reason Calgary won on Saturday was the Oilers mailed it in after the first period. They played like they did much of last year.
Robin Brownlee: You have just become one of my "irritants." Oiler fans, for the most part, are a lot smarter than that. Give me a break.
Speaking of which -- for bloody sakes -- it's just the flu, folks! Let's be patient. We have a good team, we still have a good team in Edmonton that will compete every game, no matter how badly behind they are.
You know the flu situation is bad when you see Stortini log on powerplay minutes that's close to equalling Penner's and that was the case in last night's tilt.
Not questioning anybody's intelligence, champ. I'm pointing out how over-the-top the passion of some fans is. Don't take my word for it, read the comments after a couple of losses -- not nearly as reasoned as your response here --and compare them to after a couple of wins.
And "irritants" is a Gregor-Brownlee Productions Inc. trademark and any use of same requires considerable renumeration to GBP Inc.
Oiler fans, for the most part, are a lot smarter than that.
a quick trip to the hfboards or the oilers site says otherwise.
Brownlee, i heard somewhere that prendergast had been seen at some montreal home games recently, think there is anything to look into there?
You know the flu situation is bad when Theo Peckham was playing as a forward position a few times during the game!
Realistically, its my thought that we wouldn't be having this conversation if we split the weekend series. Truth is Calgary played pretty darn well and they have a roster comprised of way more actual NHL'ers. Vancouver on the other hand was winnable, and a full roster Oilers team playing to their abilities like we saw last week would probably have won. So lets take a valium or two and see how we do in the next while before filling out our donor cards.
On another much more important note, am I to understand that Red Bull and cigarettes AREN'T a balanced diet? Man. If that's the case, it probably explains a few things on my end.
How long after we get relatively healthy will Big Mac get waived? If Quinn is playing a d-man as a forward ahead of him, I'm guessing sooner rather than later.
I like the fact that Quinn doesn't pull any punches and isn't using the flu or injuries as an excuse. Even when they when he's critical of his players, demanding more from them. Unlike the previous regime which didn't critique wins.
When the flu has run it's course this team will be ok.
As surprising as Penner has been this year, hands up everyone who thought coming into camp that there would ever come a time in this season where we were pining for Brule and Comrie to get back in the lineup.
@Robin Brownlee
Robin, I beg to differ. This isn't Vancouver where fans randomly call radio sports shows demanding that Roberto Luongo's head to be on a plate when he has two bad games. And this isn't Toronto where everyone, and I mean everyone in TO, thinks they are going to win the Stanley Cup every September. Fans of the copper and blue are much better than that.
All I've heard that's negative in Edmonton from fans is the Horcoff talk. Horcoff isn't scoring, Horcoff should play on the fourth line, Horcoff should take a pay cut, blah, blah, blah... They have every right to feel that way after both parties inked that hefty contract.
As for that over-the-top hope, why not? You have to admit, for the first time since Ryan Smyth left town, this team now has a solid first line with the resurgence of Dustin Penner. Now, we just need a nurse.
And I promise I won't infringe on the trademark ever again, but how do I invest in GBP Inc.? I want to be a shareholder.
Besides the chat, I still love what you have to say, Robin.
@AlbertaRanger
Could someone please pass the syrup and whipped cream, this must be the worlds largest waffle on our plate here.
@Hands McDangles
Kevin Weekes may be bad, but Mark Lee is far worse. Anyone else notice on Saturday when he said "he skates unmolested out of the zone"? LMAO
CBC should have given Chris Cuthbert whatever he wanted, since his calls are far superior to anyones save Jim Hughson.
If you listened to oilers lunch you would have heard the bus trip to the rink sounded like a truckload of dogs from all the players coughing(barking. No doubt the flu has hit the team harder than has been let on. Only thing worse than coughing all night is having a room mate coughing all night.
The only way to get new players after Khabby's signing is by trade. Because Gogs is one of our best players is a long way from saying he's one of the best young players in the league. Gagne, for instance, just might be.
The only way to get new players after Khabby's signing is by trade. Because Gogs is one of our best players is a long way from saying he's one of the best young players in the league. Gagne, for instance, just might be.
Don't know how the double post thing works, sorry about that.
I would kill to have Ryan Stone back right now! That guy slowly worked his way into my heart before his leg detached from his body or whatever.
When the team proves they are actually team tough, sometime after playing most of the tougher teams twice.
Mark lee is so stupid... Liek the Hairy eyeballs thing WTF? and also i heard hims once say something along the lines of " and the puck bounces of the board like a billiard ball" I was like wow Mark Lee my dad is right you are a dumbass....
@AlbertaRanger
Beg to differ if you must, but it doesn't change the dialogue you can see here and at other sites that supports what I'm saying.
I'm not even saying fans living and dying with every twist in fortune of the Oilers is a bad thing, it's just a roller-coaster ride I've missed because of the job I've had since 1983.
It's like when Gregor asks me who my favourite teams are and I realize I haven't had one since the late-70s. I mean, I loved the Oakland A's when Vida Blue was the man, Miami when Bob Griese was QB and the New York Islanders when Lorne Henning had hair. How long ago is that? Since then, nada.
@Robin Brownlee
Brownlee all i can say is i love how you worked Emo kids into this. Pure gold.
I do have one question: Above you wrote Oilers fans were crying: "Shawn Horcoff is stealing money from Daryl Katz" Then "Horcoff isn't going to struggle like he has offensively through 82 games. He'll get 50-55 points"
What i want to know is, how for what he makes a season is this not Theft???
But thats all in jest, im still so pumped from the CBJ game, regardless of the 2 following losses. This may be because i have tickets for tomorrow and regardless am just pumped to go!!
Horcoff is never going to live up to the dollars in this contract in the eyes of fans, but that's a reflection on Kevin Lowe as much as it is on him. Who'd turn down the kind of money the Oilers offered him?
But if Horcoff gets 55 points, eats up time on the PK and is the team's best face-off man, then it'll be an OK season. He doesn't pack enough offence to make up for this slow start. He's a guy I count on for 60-70 points a season, but that'll be hard to do with this start and the bad foot he's operating on.
Because 55 points on the open market costs you 4 million. Tack on the intangibles and you've got a 4.5 - 4.75 million player.
Not sure if a million dollar overpay is theft or not, guess that's debatable.
@Robin Brownlee
i dont really have to big of a problem with Horcoff, and i can handle him getting 60-70 points, Plus as you have said hes a good pk guy and hes even a good face-off guy. But ive seen him miss the puck alot of times over the last few years. Is this an area of his game he works on in practice? I will agree with you that it is just as much a knock against Klowe as it is against Horcoff.
great article but whats even better is reading people take shots at rb then kissing A as soon as he replies. its no fun if we all get along
@Ogden Brother
I'm not so certain 55 points even gets you 4 mill nowadays
Look at Comrie, Afinigenov, Betts, etc.
Not neccessarily all 55-60 point guys, but damn close, and all 3 almost ended up having to try out like green rookies.
Intangibles are the only thing keeping guys in the league in some cases. The 3 players I mentioned are way too good to be spare parts
How many fans were calling in after game 1 asking for Khabbi's head? 1 mistake (albeit glaring) in 1 game. A few games later, after a couple solid games, it's all of a sudden an amazing signing. I agree that Oiler fans, many of whom I think are rather educated hockey fans, are about as fickle as it gets. Hell, if the PP goes 0/1 and has trouble getting into the zone on the next one, the locals boo their asses hard. And once their in the zone, most fans immediately call for whoever's on the point to wind up and shoot as hard as he absolutely can into the PK'ers shinpads. It seems to only take a few games of less-than-stellar play from any one player to start the trade talk and a few games of good play to take a player off the trade talk. Or, in the case of Hemmer, one 5-point game.
I don't know what's up with all this "inflated point totals" for 77 and people "being fooled by it."
The guy had 33 points in '07 and then he jumped to 45 points in '09 so the difference in those seasons can be explained by perhaps more PP time; I'm not looking that up, I'm just guessing.
But there's nothing to be "fooled" about it.
The guy is good, puts up points and made a jump in production from his first full season to his second one.
No fooling.
Have you watched the games this season? He's been brutal.
He is making Grebs look even worse when he passes D to D right into his feet.
Yes. Yes I did hear that. It was disturbing and Mark Lee is by far, BY FAR... thee worst announcer in hockey history. We are all dumber for having listened to him. He makes Kevin Quinn look like Danny Gallivan... and I can't stand Kevin Quinn.
Remember a few years back we were all calling for the end of Bob Cole so Jim Hughson could be the #1 guy. Well it happened... and the #1 guy does the Leafs games, so now we, the same people who called for Bob Cole's head, got what we asked for. Mark Lee. He could single-handedly end the CBC double header.
As for Kevin Weekes, at least we don't have to hear Marc Crawford. IMO, Weekes had his worst night Saturday after a couple 'alright' performances before that. But look who he's working with.
Well, if Khabibulin wasn't there and the net was empty, Calgary could've gotten 10...
Dude...
... Comrie had 27 points last year, Afinogenov had 20 points last year and Betts had 10 points last year.
Brian Wilde wrote:
Hmmmm?
You already mouthed off about this once when I said Gilbert wouldn't hit 40 points this season. You said I was hedging my bets because of his slow start. I'll go one better. I don't see Gilbert reaching 45 points again in his career. That was a one-shot deal. That's what I mean by people being fooled. He wasn't, and isn't, as good as his numbers made him appear.
One other thing: if I have to waste my time editing out even one more of those stupid smiley faces you put in your comments, the whole comment goes. Got it?
Not sure who they'd be looking at in Montreal (if they even are) but Josh Gorges would be one name of interest to me. We've heard the Kostitsyn talk of both brothers being moved. Can't see the Oil being too interested there, nor with Tomas Plekanec. Guillame Latendresse?
Montreal could use a pmd (Grebeshkov/Gilbert). Oil could use a young steady d-man, no?
RB - Without putting too fine a point on it....Horcoff sucks. I don't care what he does well. I don't care if he makes the best Tom Collins in the known world, I don't care if barbecues the best road kill in Alberta and I don't care if he can do wheel-stands with a Zamboni. He sucks. He skates like he has a that same Zamboni tied to his ass.
Horcoff isn't having a rough stretch. That implies 2-3 weeks or so of poor play. Horcoff's play is not a rough stretch it's more of a chasm. It was a rough stretch this time last year. What I don't get is why you and other pundits defend him with almost religious zeal.
The more the Edmonton media blow sunshine up Horcoff's kilt the more the fans get frustrated with the amount of slack you are prepared to give this guy. I don't get it.
@Rob
You overstate. Who is defending Horcoff with a religeous zeal? Is saying it's not his fault the Oilers over-paid him defending him? You and other fans focus on the money. Is it Horcoff's fault the Oilers haven't landed that elusive "No. 1 centre?" No.
Money aside, Horcoff has fallen off since his best season, no question. Anybody with two eyes can see that. He has to be better. Slack? You're mistaking a lack of ranting and raving and moaning and whining about Horcoff as slack. What are you looking for, a daily diatribe on his shortcomings?
I hate when people at RX1 shout "shoot!" during the powerplay because more often then not there is a defender directly in front of the puckcarrier. The puck would hit his shin pads and bounce on down the ice and then people will complain about that. Its often the people who look as if they have never laced up a pair of skates before who shout out that crap too. It just makes us look as dumb as canuck fans in those situations.
Non of those guys came anywhere near 55 points the last couple of years.
Also, we should know that this year (and maybe next year) are exception years, once the cap rises agains you'll see the free spending continue.
@RossCreek
Always interesting what you find on these boards, isn't it.
Stephane Yelle anyone?
The reason some people defend him is because alot of people (like yourself) go so far overboard in their evaluations of his play. He's an excellent 2nd line center that can play 1st line if theirs no one better. Simple as that.