UPDATE AGAIN: Horcout!

Jason Gregor
November 04 2009 11:23AM

The injuries continue for the Oilers, and the latest victim is Shawn Horcoff.

We will get the exact extent of his injury after the skate today, but like I said on my show yesterday and Brownlee wrote yesterday, the Oilers will be without their highest paid forward for the next while.

Some will argue that they won’t miss his five points, -5 rating and his 25 shots. Clearly Horcoff has struggled this season, but no other centre has been solid offensively.

Sam Gagner has had a few good games, Gilbert Brule was good until he got sick and Cogliano has had three good games, but otherwise he has been invisible. One, if not two of them has to step up.

Filling Horcoff’s offensive contributions won’t be hard right now, but one of them needs to be better in the draws, and be ready to consistently face the opposition’s best defencemen. Gagner will have the best chance because he’ll be playing with Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky. It isn’t a surprise that Gagner and Horcoff’s most productive game this year came playing with those two.

Gagner will be the guy to slide back on to the top line, but if this team is going to start winning again Cogliano or Brule need to chip in. They can’t win with just one line scoring, and that has been the case for the past six games.

Players need to grab the opportunity when it presents itself, so which centre will step up?

More injury trouble?

Horcoff is out, but he isn’t the only one hurting. Ales Hemsky didn’t skate this morning and he has an undisclosed injury. He won’t say what it is, but when the rest of the team was getting on the ice Hemsky was coming back to the rink after getting some sort of test done. He says he will play tomorrow, but he isn’t 100 per cent healthy.

Ladislav Smid didn’t practice either and I will fill you in on his status after practice.

Theo Peckham was re-assigned to Springfield after the game in Long Island, because Steve Staios looks ready to play. He practiced today and took part in some contact drills and it looks like he will return tomorrow night.

Mike Comrie was also on the ice, and should be ready against the Rangers as well.

New centre?

Based on practice, it looks like Patrick O’Sullivan will be the other centre now that Horcoff is out. He skated with Robert Nilsson and JF Jacques. Zack Stortini skated in Hemsky’s spot with Penner and Gagner. Cogliano was with Ethan Morean and Fernando Pisani, while Brule centred Comrie and MacIntyre. You have to think if Hemsky plays then Stortini will move down and play with Brule and Comrie.

The defence pairings saw Tom Gilbert with Denis Grebeshkov, Taylor Chorney and Lubomir Visnovsky and Jason Strudwick with Steve Staios.

More on Horcoff...

I spoke with Horcoff, and he says that though his injury will put him out of play anywhere from just the next game to two weeks out, he won't require surgery.

Horcoff was pretty mum on the extent of his injury and wouldn't say exactly what the issue was, but he didn't have a brace or sling on or anything, so it's not super severe... but bad enough that he needs to rest.

Coach Pat Quinn said that Horcoff would be out for 7 to 10 days, "Page two from the trainers' manual."

Kid Gorgeous

Sheldon Souray was scheduled to do a solo skate today, and Quinn has given him the go-ahead to resume light workouts as well.

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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#51 Reagan
November 04 2009, 01:25PM
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Good to hear that Souray is working out again!

Jason,

Any word on how Stone is recovering? They could really use his hitting right now.

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#52 Dan the Man
November 04 2009, 01:29PM
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Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach wrote:

No I seen that he his picture. I just wondered if Dan the man was a coverup. I really don't see what the big deal about Souray is anyways.

Hmmm...let me see....Souray beats the crap out of anyone he fights, scores lots of goals, is a very good leader and used to be married to a baywatch chick....oh and he also happens to be from Alberta and chose to sign in Edmonton as UFA.

No big deal.

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#53 Dyckster
November 04 2009, 01:31PM
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" I really don't see what the big deal about Souray is anyways."

OB Jr. You meant to put ~~ on either side of this comment....right?

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#54 Dan the Man
November 04 2009, 01:34PM
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Mike Krushelnyski wrote:

Is it possible to call up Eberle, or is he done for the year once he's gone to junior?

If I'm not mistaken the only way Eberle could play for the Oil this year would be on an emergency call up. I think they did that with a Junior player a couple of years ago when their D was depleted with injury.

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#55 Milli
November 04 2009, 01:35PM
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Boundz wrote:

Bummer about Horc.

Anyone else notice that when EDM lost Stone, they lost some obvious grit, but also started losing a little time and space, and energy?

That, of course, closely coincided with the flu, but I must say, the more physical the Oil are, the better they are...

More physicality please!

Boundz

Couldn't agree more. I was questioning how much was flu and how much was energy created by BIGTIME hits? You hear the quotes that it energizes the entire team when they see them and at this point, it sure looks true. Any word onwhen the CRUST might be back in the line up? Also, that is great news about Souray, isn't it?

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#56 Dan the Man
November 04 2009, 01:41PM
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Dan the Man wrote:

If I'm not mistaken the only way Eberle could play for the Oil this year would be on an emergency call up. I think they did that with a Junior player a couple of years ago when their D was depleted with injury.

Sebastien Bisaillon was the players name and they recalled him from Val-d'Or Foreurs of the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League.

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#57 Ender
November 04 2009, 01:41PM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

It doesn't matter!!!! LOLZZ! All that matters is that Horc is that 7 7 7 7 7 milion dollar man is gone and we will get someone better and pay him less!!!! OMGGGG!!!!

*drools*

Whenever I see this argument, I just want to scream. It's not $7M and give it a rest already. The cap hit is $5.5M. To be clear about which number is more important, $5.5 is what you would free up to spend if you replace him. On top of that, when he's making $4M per season ask yourself which number you're going to quote to make your point.

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#58 cospoo
November 04 2009, 01:43PM
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Is there any word when Souray will return to action?

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#59 Dan the Man
November 04 2009, 01:45PM
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Ender wrote:

Whenever I see this argument, I just want to scream. It's not $7M and give it a rest already. The cap hit is $5.5M. To be clear about which number is more important, $5.5 is what you would free up to spend if you replace him. On top of that, when he's making $4M per season ask yourself which number you're going to quote to make your point.

Thank you...well said.

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#60 Josh
November 04 2009, 01:48PM
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@Dan the Man

With Horcs contract off the books this would free up room to allow us to make a trade

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#61 rubbertrout
November 04 2009, 01:48PM
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Tito Ortiz wrote:

Lets just trade for Vinnie Lecavelier already!

Really? I shudder to think of the people we'd have to trade to end up even thinner overall to make the numbers work.

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#62 rubbertrout
November 04 2009, 01:56PM
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Josh wrote:

I wish horc did require surgery and that he would miss the entire year go on the LTIR, we bring someone else in, and but him out at the end of the season!! Or is that to harsh? Horc is sh it its time everyone realized it, he is not in a slump, he is just not that good period.

Josh, have you been introduced to Hatecoff? Something tells me you two would be very happy together.

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#63 Hemmercules
November 04 2009, 01:59PM
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Josh wrote:

I wish horc did require surgery and that he would miss the entire year go on the LTIR, we bring someone else in, and but him out at the end of the season!! Or is that to harsh? Horc is sh it its time everyone realized it, he is not in a slump, he is just not that good period.

I can never figure out these notions that teams just buy out huge contracts. How often does it happen?? Not to mention its a huge waste of money to the guy writing the cheques and, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we would stil be on the hook for 3 mil in cap space for a couple years after the buy out. The oilers need cap relief, not 3 mil floating around in thin air.

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#64 Dan the Man
November 04 2009, 02:01PM
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Josh wrote:

With Horcs contract off the books this would free up room to allow us to make a trade

That's great in theory but like I said before ...who?

If our need is a first line centre which one is available?

People have thrown Lecavalier's name out there but he does have a NTC so he'd have to waive it...do youthink that would happen?

So who else then?

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#65 rubbertrout
November 04 2009, 02:02PM
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Josh wrote:

With Horcs contract off the books this would free up room to allow us to make a trade

How exactly is Horc's contract off the books? Nothing that Gregor said suggests that he is going to be on longe term IR and that is what needs to happen if you want cap relief.

Just wait until you see how well the team plays without him if he is gone for an extended period of time. If they light it up I'll be amazed.

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#66 rubbertrout
November 04 2009, 02:06PM
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Hemmercules wrote:

I can never figure out these notions that teams just buy out huge contracts. How often does it happen?? Not to mention its a huge waste of money to the guy writing the cheques and, correct me if I'm wrong, but I think we would stil be on the hook for 3 mil in cap space for a couple years after the buy out. The oilers need cap relief, not 3 mil floating around in thin air.

Maybe Gregor, Robin or JW can chime in on this. I thought for veteran's the buyout cap hit is 50% of the pre-buyout cap hit over the life of the contract. You'd free up some $ but you wouldn't just be able to take the contract entirely off the books. How happy would you be if we still had to count half of the salary and didn't get anything for him.

Of course it is all Mac-T's fault anyway isn't it?

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#67 Zamboni Driver
November 04 2009, 02:10PM
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@Ender

Not to worry, Ogden sips the same Koolaid as you.

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#68 Racki
November 04 2009, 02:10PM
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rubbertrout wrote:

Maybe Gregor, Robin or JW can chime in on this. I thought for veteran's the buyout cap hit is 50% of the pre-buyout cap hit over the life of the contract. You'd free up some $ but you wouldn't just be able to take the contract entirely off the books. How happy would you be if we still had to count half of the salary and didn't get anything for him.

Of course it is all Mac-T's fault anyway isn't it?

Simplest thing to do is just go to capgeek.com and use their buyout calculator.

The only players that are any different for buyouts are players who signed their contract at 35+. Their whole salary counts to the cap no matter whether you buy them out or not. Khabibulin is a good example of this.. his salary will be 100% on the books unless traded (and I'm not suggesting trading him, just using him as an example here).

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#69 Dan the Man
November 04 2009, 02:16PM
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rubbertrout wrote:

Maybe Gregor, Robin or JW can chime in on this. I thought for veteran's the buyout cap hit is 50% of the pre-buyout cap hit over the life of the contract. You'd free up some $ but you wouldn't just be able to take the contract entirely off the books. How happy would you be if we still had to count half of the salary and didn't get anything for him.

Of course it is all Mac-T's fault anyway isn't it?

You can buy out a contract during a 2 week period in June.

For players 26 or older, a buyout costs two-thirds of remaining contract value. (3.63 Miliion cap hit per season for the remaining 4 years of the contract)

The cap hit can then be spread over twice the length of the remaining contract years. Which would mean approximately 1.8 cap hit for 8 years for not playing Horcoff.

If I'm not mistaken.

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#70 Dan the Man
November 04 2009, 02:24PM
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According to cap geek I was a little off...

I'm not sure why the fluctuation year to year but either way it's a lot to pay someone for nothing.

SHAWN HORCOFF BUYOUT FROM CAPGEEK.COM

2010-2011: $733,333

2011-2012: $733,333

2012-2013: $1,233,333

2013-2014: $3,233,333

2014-2015: $4,233,333

2015-2016: $1,733,333

2016-2017: $1,733,333

2017-2018: $1,733,333

2018-2019: $1,733,333

2019-2020: $1,733,333

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#71 HansBaurMesserschmittWatson
November 04 2009, 02:25PM
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i cant believe in a league such as nhl, a league that has finacial problems as a collective year in year out.

they allow a cba with with an agreed buyout plan and you still cant fire a player.

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#72 Dan the Man
November 04 2009, 02:26PM
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From CBC.ca...

Health staffer fired for Flames' flu shot clinic

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/calgary/story/2009/11/04/alberta-h1n1-flu-shot-calgary-flames-investigation.html

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#73 HansBaurMesserschmittWatson
November 04 2009, 02:27PM
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@Dan the Man

he is under contract until 2020 ?

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#74 HansBaurMesserschmittWatson
November 04 2009, 02:30PM
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i hope this flames flu shot crap doesnt turn out into a big blow up about our two tier healthcare, and the americans get mad and take both away from us :(

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#75 Hemmercules
November 04 2009, 02:31PM
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Dan the Man wrote:

According to cap geek I was a little off...

I'm not sure why the fluctuation year to year but either way it's a lot to pay someone for nothing.

SHAWN HORCOFF BUYOUT FROM CAPGEEK.COM

2010-2011: $733,333

2011-2012: $733,333

2012-2013: $1,233,333

2013-2014: $3,233,333

2014-2015: $4,233,333

2015-2016: $1,733,333

2016-2017: $1,733,333

2017-2018: $1,733,333

2018-2019: $1,733,333

2019-2020: $1,733,333

Thats even worse than I thought. Thanks for the Info.

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#76 Dan the Man
November 04 2009, 02:36PM
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HansBaurMesserschmittWatson wrote:

he is under contract until 2020 ?

No...just until 2014-2015...the cap hit for a buy out is spread over double the remaining years of the contract (10 years instead of 5)

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#77 SirFozz
November 04 2009, 02:36PM
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HansBaurMesserschmittWatson wrote:

i hope this flames flu shot crap doesnt turn out into a big blow up about our two tier healthcare, and the americans get mad and take both away from us :(

Huh????

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#78 rubbertrout
November 04 2009, 02:39PM
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@Dan the Man

Thanks for clearing that up.

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#79 HansBaurMesserschmittWatson
November 04 2009, 02:39PM
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Dan the Man wrote:

No...just until 2014-2015...the cap hit for a buy out is spread over double the remaining years of the contract (10 years instead of 5)

wow

wow

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#80 rubbertrout
November 04 2009, 02:40PM
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HansBaurMesserschmittWatson wrote:

i hope this flames flu shot crap doesnt turn out into a big blow up about our two tier healthcare, and the americans get mad and take both away from us :(

You're on the wrong thread. Two tiered help was discussed a couple of articles ago.

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#82 HansBaurMesserschmittWatson
November 04 2009, 02:44PM
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damn i just joined yesterday i thought it was oilernation and that the server was down

i was just making a poor one world goevernment joke

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#83 Ogden Brother
November 04 2009, 02:44PM
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Dan the Man wrote:

I will ask again....like WHO??

Wasn't the sarcasm obvious?

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#86 Ogden Brother
November 04 2009, 02:47PM
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Ender wrote:

Whenever I see this argument, I just want to scream. It's not $7M and give it a rest already. The cap hit is $5.5M. To be clear about which number is more important, $5.5 is what you would free up to spend if you replace him. On top of that, when he's making $4M per season ask yourself which number you're going to quote to make your point.

*palms face*

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#87 HansBaurMesserschmittWatson
November 04 2009, 02:48PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Good observation. Horcoff said he tweaked it three weeks ago, and the hit on Monday finished him off. They are shooting for seven to ten days, but I'd bet it is the latter if not more.

why would they let him and why would he force play with a tweeked shoulder for about 3 weeks ?

thats just an accident waiting to happen

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#89 Offthebandwagon
November 04 2009, 02:50PM
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With regard to Horcoff and Souray, while the debate of Horc's replacement for the season was premature, I want to point out that behindthenet.ca has him listed as the team leader this season with regard to quality of competition--this should be taken into account, particularly given his poor start to the season. The site also offers the following tidbit of info., which I found interesting: "The overall winning percentage when players were in the line-up was close to .500 for both datasets, which we would expect since playing time is evenly distributed across good and bad teams. And for both forwards and defensemen, there was a clear difference in winning percentage when these players were out of the lineup. However, the difference was much greater for defensemen overall, and in four out of five seasons for which we have ice time data. Teams can expect to lose four extra games if one of their top two blueliners goes down for the season, while losing a first-line forward appears to cost just one and a half losses. The error bars on these estimates are large, but it's clear that losing a defenseman is a bigger deal than losing a forward." This goes a long way to highlight the losses of Visnovsky and Souray over the past few weeks. It seems to suggest that when combined they have about four times the impact on win % than either Horc or even Hemmer.

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#91 Ogden Brother
November 04 2009, 02:52PM
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Zamboni Driver wrote:

Not to worry, Ogden sips the same Koolaid as you.

Reality flavoured koolaid?

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#92 HansBaurMesserschmittWatson
November 04 2009, 02:55PM
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@Jason Gregor

indeed, but a shoulder is a big mobility tool for a body.

i can see playing through a broken nose jaw or whatevee i just think gambling with a shuoulder is a big risk i hope not a very costly one oilers training staff has had a history of underestimating injuries

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#93 Dan the Man
November 04 2009, 03:05PM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

Wasn't the sarcasm obvious?

Sorry OB ..didn't get the sarcasm.

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#94 Offthebandwagon
November 04 2009, 03:06PM
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Is it my imagination or are the Oilers an extremely fragile team? Somebody mentioned that the training staff has a history of underestimating injuries. If this is true, then, seriously, it should be addressed because its getting ridiculous. When was the last time the team had its entire top line, forwards and D for more than 3 games in a row. It must have been last November. Maybe its like this throughout the league, but I'd like to see some stats--maybe Willis can do an article on it or something.

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#95 HansBaurMesserschmittWatson
November 04 2009, 03:09PM
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Iokt9QFlFg&feature=related

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#96 Citizen Alpha
November 04 2009, 03:12PM
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Rumour has it there's an edit button spotted around these parts.

Update: there it is. OH HAI!

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#97 smiliegirl15
November 04 2009, 03:17PM
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Lecavalier has a NMC so any trades would have to be okayed by him. Didn't we just go through that whole fiasco this summer? If he agreed to come to Edmonton, I would be thrilled because he is a great centre but at the same time, we have bigger problems than a #1 centre.

Edit - and it's a beauty!

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#98 bingofuel
November 04 2009, 03:17PM
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There you go, you leeches! Your precious edit button.

*passes out*

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#99 Librarian Mike
November 04 2009, 03:18PM
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Citizen Alpha wrote:

Rumour has it there's an edit button spotted around these parts.

Update: there it is. OH HAI!

Really? I must try it...

Success! Thanks, Oilersnation.

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#100 I'm a Scientist!
November 04 2009, 03:18PM
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Citizen Alpha wrote:

Rumour has it there's an edit button spotted around these parts.

Update: there it is. OH HAI!

*JAw hits the floor...*

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