In Tambellini's Boots

Jonathan Willis
December 01 2009 07:27AM

Yesterday, Robin Brownlee mentioned briefly the moves he’d be working on in the G.M.’s boots (pictured above). The following is my list.  If I've had one rule in making up my list, it's this one: don't sell low.

Forwards

There are four forwards on the team who can be relied upon to keep their heads above water against almost anybody. They are Ales Hemsky, Shawn Horcoff, Dustin Penner, and Sam Gagner. Those four will constitute the core of next season’s forward corps, and will be retained.

There are too many small, one-dimensional forwards in this group. Pick two of Cogliano, O'Sullivan, Nilsson, Comrie and Eberle who will be on the team next year. Given the relative trade values, at this point I'd lean towards keeping Comrie and O'Sullivan and sticking Eberle in the AHL, but there’s still plenty of time to make a decision, and the rest of the season should focus on which of these players to keep and which to move. For now though, I’d move out Nilsson and Cogliano.

This team has too many players who bring a physical edge but not much else; in reality there aren’t that many spots for these sort of players on a winning team (as none of the Oilers listed here can really handle a regular role checking top players). My list includes Ethan Moreau, J-F Jacques, Zack Stortini and Ryan Stone. Colin McDonald and Ryan O’Marra would also fit into this category, although I imagine both would clear waivers; I’d plan to store them as minor-league depth unless someone expresses interest in either of them or they impress as the season continues. Otherwise, I’d keep Stone and Stortini and move out Moreau and Jacques.

As for Gilbert Brule and Ryan Potulny, I think both can be useful NHL players. Again, part of the season would focus on evaluating Potulny, but I see him as a very good 13th forward for a playoff team. As for Brule, I’d test the market. He’s played very well, and frankly I like him a lot, but I don’t think he’s as good as we’ve seen to date. Right now he has a 20.0% shooting percentage mark; his career average is 8.9%. His on-ice shooting percentage is 11.6%, and his linemates aren’t that good. I see him as a good third-liner who can score some when called upon, but if he can put up 40+ points (he’s on pace for 58) I think he’ll get a contract as a scorer. There’s nothing wrong with the player; I’m just a fan of selling high and I think he’s as hot as he’ll be for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, I continue to believe Marc Pouliot can get the job done on the fourth line, perhaps between Stone and Stortini. He’ll have to use the stretch run to prove he deserves a spot in the lineup over Potulny; if not he’s a cheap reserve forward. Lastly, if Fernando Pisani shows signs he can come back from his latest bout of colitis, I’d pencil him in as a reserve forward.

Despite the high volume of moves I’m suggesting (five), that would leave only three spots available up front, assuming that all of the prospects/AHL’ers (O’Marra, McDonald, Eberle, Paajarvi-Svensson, Omark, etc.) fail to make the jump to the big leagues. As G.M., I’d be having my professional scouts look at defensive specialists from this summer’s free agent class. I’d also suggest that bubble players on other teams who might be cheaply available be brought over for a test run towards the latter half of this season. If at all possible, I’d also try to swing a trade to bring in a genuine third liner or two. 

Defencemen and Goaltenders

On the defensive side of things, I’d entertain bids for Lubomir Visnovsky and Sheldon Souray, but only move them if the return was particularly compelling. Lubomir Visnovsky is the team’s best defenceman and a vital part of the team; his injury last year hurt the Oilers a lot. Meanwhile, Sheldon Souray brings a unique presence to the team and when healthy has been invaluable. While I can’t help but think that age and injuries could catch up to either of these players, winning in the near future will depend greatly on them, and they can only be moved if the return justifies it. It’s also important to remember that either of these defencemen can block a trade.

Assuming that both of those players are kept, the Oilers still have too much money invested in their defence, so one of Tom Gilbert or Denis Grebeshkov should be moved if the first two are kept. Gilbert is signed to a long-term contract, and his value has never been lower than it is right now. Grebeshkov is a pending free agent. I don’t believe teams should move players for pennies on the dollar, so that rules out trading Gilbert, meaning that Grebeshkov should be moved. If Grebeshkov is willing to sign a three-year (or thereabouts) deal for reasonable money ($3.25 million per year or thereabouts) I’d consider keeping him, but otherwise I’d try and move him at the deadline.

Steve Staios costs too much money for a third-pairing defenceman, and should be moved. Ladislav Smid is still signed to reasonable dollars and should be kept. Jason Strudwick doesn’t bring anything irreplaceable; if someone were interested I’d move him, otherwise he could be allowed to leave as a free agent.

That leaves three spots on the back end to be filled, and all should go to cheap and dependable types. I one of Taylor Chorney or Theo Peckham steps up in a big way down the stretch, one of them could take an NHL job next year (not both, because if both do that leaves the team without enough depth), which would leave only two spots to fill. Physical and defensively reliable are what we’re looking for here.

In net, I’d move Khabibulin if a trade presented itself. I know Tambellini won’t because he just signed him, but he’s locked up for too long given his age and injury track record. Some would argue I’m creating an unnecessary hole, but the fact is that Khabibulin has missed almost 20 games per season every season for the past four years, and I’m not comfortable with a part-time starter. I’d also make a decision on JDD and Dubnyk. I'd be leaning towards keeping Dubnyk, but use Khabibulin's absence to add to the data. I know that's too short a span, but the Oilers must make a decision this summer and they might as well decide now. Trade the lesser of the two. 

Transactions

  • Move two of Cogliano, Comrie, Nilsson and O’Sullivan – probably Cogliano and Nilsson.
  • Move one of Jacques, Stone and Stortini – probably Jacques.
  • Move Moreau.
  • Move Brule, depending on return.
  • Move one of Visnovsky, Souray, Gilbert and Grebeshkov – probably Grebeshkov.
  • Move Staios.
  • Move Khabibulin, depending on return.
  • Move one of Deslauriers or Dubnyk – probably Deslauriers.
  • Aim to acquire two or three two-way forwards.
  • Aim to acquire a pair of solid defenceman, at least one of whom can play a shutdown role.
  • If necessary, take a goaltender back in exchange for Khabibulin, but preferably not. Acquire as many draft picks as possible.
  • Sign whatever of the above haven’t been added via trade when free agency starts.
  • Sign a starting goaltender to replace Khabibulin; by my count there are 11 possible starters hitting the market, not one of whom is older than 34.  As with last year, there are more goaltenders than there are teams.

I know this looks like a lot, but I’ve got the rest of this season and all next summer to make these moves, and that’s the list I’d be working from.  The important thing now is to use the time left to get firm reads on which players in each of the above groups to keep.

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#451 BarryS
December 02 2009, 10:11PM
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@RossCreekNation

No games, no injuries, and having to make fun of a golfer is not really fun. Of course if they signed Bourque or some hockey player hit his goalie upside the head again, then maybe things would pick up.

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#452 esa tikkanen
December 02 2009, 11:53PM
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For all the deserved criticism Tambo is getting on so many fronts, not finding a defensive center, not getting a shutdown dman, signing Khabi for too long, how about trading Garon and keeping JDD? JDD has absolutely stunk out the joint in the last three games. An NHL goalie would have won the game against LA and SJ, and would not have allowed two of the goals against the avs. Garon is twice the tender. Who cares about age or rfa/ufa. We could have played Garon every second game and signed him for three years for only modestly more than JDD is getting, and had twice the tender. In three years JDD will be a UFA anyway, if he is still in the league...

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#453 TigerUnderGlass
December 03 2009, 12:30AM
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BarryS wrote:

Yah so, Khabbi's back turns out to be cronic. He has to retire due to injury. I expect there are exceptions for this as well. As for retiring just for retiring, there is no justification to expect he will, Rollie hasn't, what's his name the dman who just pulled the pin, played till what late 40's, Gordie Howe played into his fifties. There is some thought, Johnny Bowers was about fifty before he made the league.

There are no cap exceptions for this.

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#454 TigerUnderGlass
December 03 2009, 12:32AM
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BarryS wrote:

You're right, I meant Gaborik but was think of Hossa. The point is, having been mostly injured for what, three years and having his team give up on him, he still got a good contract and he missed way more than 20 games a year the last three years.

He is not over 35.

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#455 TigerUnderGlass
December 03 2009, 12:37AM
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BarryS wrote:

No more than GM's setting kids up for life so they don't ever have to perform again. At least Khabbi has a track record, whether you like it or not. Better to risk four years on an old guy than five on a kid whose money might go to his head.

And what market are you talking about, July 1's or August's or todays? They were a lot different you know,

Thank you for explaining that the market can be different at different times.

If you weren't hiding in a cave or a member of Oiler's management then you knew it was a buyers market heading into free agency.

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#456 Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach
December 03 2009, 07:53AM
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There is no f%&*ing way that fans of this team will last if we go for the first overall pick.

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#457 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
December 03 2009, 08:19AM
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Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach wrote:

There is no f%&*ing way that fans of this team will last if we go for the first overall pick.

i sure will!!

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#458 Crash
December 03 2009, 08:25AM
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Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach wrote:

There is no f%&*ing way that fans of this team will last if we go for the first overall pick.

I want that 1st overall pick...I'm a fan...a season ticket holder to boot....I will last

Give me Taylor Hall to go with Gagner, Hemsky, Penner, MPS, Eberle, Cornet, Brule and we are on our way.

Maybe use Gilbert or Grebs, Cogliano, draft picks, O'Sullivan and try to turn it into something like a Nathan Horton along with some bruising d-man and things will look pretty good. Just need to add some grit and sandpaper. Tootoo is a UFA after this year, Colby Armstrong too....still have JFJ and Stone for grit as well.

Just my opinion, this team would only need some small tweaking if we get that 1st or 2nd pick. Things aren't as bleak as they seem...

Just a thought

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#459 Eddie Shore
December 03 2009, 08:25AM
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Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach wrote:

There is no f%&*ing way that fans of this team will last if we go for the first overall pick.

Speak for yourself. That is a sweeping statement with no merit, as far as I'm concerned.

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#460 Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach
December 03 2009, 08:37AM
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@Crash

I agree that things would look great if we got it, I just can't see fans lasting through 60 more games of what we saw already.

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#461 Crash
December 03 2009, 08:43AM
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Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach wrote:

I agree that things would look great if we got it, I just can't see fans lasting through 60 more games of what we saw already.

I can only speak for myself and I'm a season ticket holder who has to drive 150km for every game...I just don't want this team to miss the playoffs and have the 10th to 15th overall pick yet again.

I'd give the future of this team all the prime ice time, PP time, PK time and take our lumps...I'd be happy seeing Gagner, Brule, Penner, O'Sullivan, Chorney, etc. seeing this prime ice time and gain the experience...I'd also love to see the Oilers give Dubnyk a fair amount of games while Khabby is out.

I can take the losing if we are speeding up the development process by using our developing players more often.

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#462 Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach
December 03 2009, 08:47AM
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@Crash

I wonder if playing all the younger players is the way to go? We did that a few years back and it really didn't do anything for us.

Although if Tambo sits down with management and says we have a full year to evaluate all the young players. Then makes decisions on who to re-sign and who to trade, one would think that going into next year there really shouldn't be any more excuses.

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#463 Crash
December 03 2009, 08:52AM
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Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach wrote:

I wonder if playing all the younger players is the way to go? We did that a few years back and it really didn't do anything for us.

Although if Tambo sits down with management and says we have a full year to evaluate all the young players. Then makes decisions on who to re-sign and who to trade, one would think that going into next year there really shouldn't be any more excuses.

Actually from what I remember, the one year when we had all the injuries at the end of the year MacT was forced to play the younger kids more aka the kid line and we went on a tear at the end of the season over the last 20 games and almost made the playoffs...I'd like to see the kids play more again only this time I hope we can land that top 2 pick in the draft...

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#464 Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach
December 03 2009, 09:02AM
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@Crash

We played good for those 20 games, but where did that leave us the next year?

I'd actually like to get a good look on Potulny, Chorney and Peckham, of all the callups they seem the most likely to have a career in the NHL. I don't see guys like O'Marra, Arsene or Macdonald ever really being much more then what they are now, callups for an injury prone team.

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#465 Crash
December 03 2009, 09:10AM
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Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach wrote:

We played good for those 20 games, but where did that leave us the next year?

I'd actually like to get a good look on Potulny, Chorney and Peckham, of all the callups they seem the most likely to have a career in the NHL. I don't see guys like O'Marra, Arsene or Macdonald ever really being much more then what they are now, callups for an injury prone team.

I agree on the good look at Potulny, Chorney and Peckham. I agree on Arsene and MacDonald as they are starting to get quite older to be referred to as young prospects...I still think O'Marra stands a chance of developing into a defensive forward but not an impact guy.

I just think it's time to let the younger established guys to play more ahead of guys like Horcoff...cut down on Horcoff's ice time...let Gagner, Cogliano, etc. take more key faceoffs, let them learn it, let them play the key situations...let them work through the downs so that they hopefully aren't still working on them next year and the year after.

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#466 Ogden Brother
December 03 2009, 09:15AM
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Crash wrote:

I agree on the good look at Potulny, Chorney and Peckham. I agree on Arsene and MacDonald as they are starting to get quite older to be referred to as young prospects...I still think O'Marra stands a chance of developing into a defensive forward but not an impact guy.

I just think it's time to let the younger established guys to play more ahead of guys like Horcoff...cut down on Horcoff's ice time...let Gagner, Cogliano, etc. take more key faceoffs, let them learn it, let them play the key situations...let them work through the downs so that they hopefully aren't still working on them next year and the year after.

If their was ever a time to do it, it's now.

Both should be expierenced enough to at least not be shell shocked with the hard minutes, with the added bonus that we'll likely loss more then we win while giving Horc the time off to heal up.

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#467 Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach
December 03 2009, 09:19AM
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@Crash

Ya I was a little partial to O'Marra, not really sure what to think but I rather give some of the other guys down the middle time before him.

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#468 Dan the Man
December 03 2009, 09:41AM
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Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach wrote:

There is no f%&*ing way that fans of this team will last if we go for the first overall pick.

I'm already of the mind set that I'd be disappointed if we were to squeak in to the playoffs. That doesn't help this team long term. The only thing worse than that would be to finish in that 9th-12th spot.

I want a freakin' lottery pick.

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#469 Crash
December 03 2009, 09:51AM
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Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach wrote:

Ya I was a little partial to O'Marra, not really sure what to think but I rather give some of the other guys down the middle time before him.

To be honest I think when we are talking about the future and I mean near future both O'Marra and Potulny won't be in the mix.

My gut tells me we're looking at Gagner, Eberle, Svensson, Cornet, Cogliano, Chorney, Petry, Plante, Grebeshkov, Gilbert, O'Sullivan, hopefully Hall or Seguin, Hemsky, Penner, Brule, JFJ, Stone going forward and I'm just talking the young guys and guys in their prime not the vets (Souray, Horcoff, Vishnovsky).

Maybe we can parlay some of those assets into a more establish young player (ie Horton). I really do think we aren't in as bad a shape as the doomsdayers are portraying. We don't need a full scale blowup...

Just need to add a couple of guys who play on the edge and get rid of the dead weight (Nilsson, Pouliot, Moreau, Pisani, Strudwick, Staios, Stortini, Comrie). Just my opinion but I don't think we are looking too bad. Especially if we can land that top 2 pick in the next draft.

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#470 Crash
December 03 2009, 09:54AM
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Oops forgot Smid, lol, can't forget Smid

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#471 Dan the Man
December 03 2009, 09:59AM
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@Crash

I think you nailed it pretty good, the only change I'd make is Stortini I think he's a pretty useful player.

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#472 Crash
December 03 2009, 10:09AM
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Dan the Man wrote:

I think you nailed it pretty good, the only change I'd make is Stortini I think he's a pretty useful player.

I agree, Stortini is useful but I'm hoping that Tambo can land Tootoo and Colby Armstrong as UFA's this summer or at least one of em and then Stortini becomes redundant. Both Tootoo and Armstrong would give us crashers and bangers and can also contribute with significant minutes. Both can skate and even contribute offensively.

Or at least I'd try to land those guys as well as try to trade for Horton if he's available as has been reported.

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#473 Ogden Brother
December 03 2009, 10:15AM
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Crash wrote:

To be honest I think when we are talking about the future and I mean near future both O'Marra and Potulny won't be in the mix.

My gut tells me we're looking at Gagner, Eberle, Svensson, Cornet, Cogliano, Chorney, Petry, Plante, Grebeshkov, Gilbert, O'Sullivan, hopefully Hall or Seguin, Hemsky, Penner, Brule, JFJ, Stone going forward and I'm just talking the young guys and guys in their prime not the vets (Souray, Horcoff, Vishnovsky).

Maybe we can parlay some of those assets into a more establish young player (ie Horton). I really do think we aren't in as bad a shape as the doomsdayers are portraying. We don't need a full scale blowup...

Just need to add a couple of guys who play on the edge and get rid of the dead weight (Nilsson, Pouliot, Moreau, Pisani, Strudwick, Staios, Stortini, Comrie). Just my opinion but I don't think we are looking too bad. Especially if we can land that top 2 pick in the next draft.

Did you know Ethan Moreau has scored more goals/min 5 on 5 then any play not named Penner/Brule this year?

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#474 Dan the Man
December 03 2009, 10:31AM
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@Crash

There is a really good write up by David Staples on exactly what you are talking about.

http://communities.canada.com/edmontonjournal/blogs/hockey/archive/2009/12/03/the-oilers-need-to-blow-up-this-team-and-trade-for-expiring-contracts.aspx

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#475 Crash
December 03 2009, 10:36AM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

Did you know Ethan Moreau has scored more goals/min 5 on 5 then any play not named Penner/Brule this year?

That's an aberration in my opinion and would not be the norm in any given year...Moreau probably also leads the team in offensive zone unnecessary penalties

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#476 Ogden Brother
December 03 2009, 10:37AM
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Crash wrote:

That's an aberration in my opinion and would not be the norm in any given year...Moreau probably also leads the team in offensive zone unnecessary penalties

Kind of funny that you say that, he has consistantly being one of their leading 5 on 5 and SH goal scorers.

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#477 Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach
December 03 2009, 12:18PM
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@Crash

I don't know if Tootoo and Armstrong even make it UFA status.

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#478 Crash
December 03 2009, 12:52PM
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Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach wrote:

I don't know if Tootoo and Armstrong even make it UFA status.

I was using nhlnumbers.com as my source...so I guess it depends if they are accurate or not...it shows both Armstrong and Tootoo as UFA's starting after this season

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#479 mowgli
December 03 2009, 01:44PM
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Crash wrote:

Oops forgot Smid, lol, can't forget Smid

I forgot Smid to im my wish list to a few days ago ,lol

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