Oilers vs. Canucks Postgame: Think Of It As A Chance To Win A Draft Pick

Jonathan Willis
December 27 2009 12:09AM

Edmonton Oilers: 1

Vancouver Canucks: 4

The Canucks hadn't won at GM Place on Boxing Day in years and years, but then again they haven't been lucky enough to face your 2009-10 Edmonton Oilers in all those games either. Another loss and shoddy work on the PK obscured a solid effort from the Oilers.

Oilers Three Stars, According To Me

1. Ladislav Smid. The battle between Smid and Mikael Samuelsson was a fun side issue over the course of the game. Samuelsson knocked Smid down off a faceoff early in the first, but Smid took the number and came back to drill him twice - a beautiful hit in the Canucks' zone where Smid sent the puck deep, and an undisciplined hit where Smid left his position on the PK to drill him. Still, the mean streak is nice to see and the first hit was a thing of beauty. He also prevented a goal by knocking the puck away after it squeaked by Deslauriers, all while holding off an attacker.

2. Shawn Horcoff. Horcoff had a nice game, moving the puck smartly and backchecking well, as usual. His minus on the night came on the empty net goal; I'm still a little confused as to why the NHL counts those on a player's plus/minus.

3. Ryan Potulny. Had a lovely goal that made Luongo look a little bit silly (he should have had it) but showed his goal scoring ability on a gorgeous shot. I'm also inclined to cut him some slack for his delay of game penalty; that's just bad luck.

Random Thoughts

I thought Tom Gilbert was having an incredible game, up until he let Ehrhoff blow by him and score the Canucks' third goal. He made a bunch of brilliant plays and has mostly looked rejuvenated since being paired with Souray.

All night the commentators were talking about how great the Oilers' fourth line looked; that's what happens when they get matched up against the Rypien line. The Canucks' fourth line is enough to make anybody look good. That said, it's a shame this team has so many small players because Andrew Cogliano deserves a better spot than that one; he played well tonight.

The Canucks' two power play goals that changed the game were all sparked by Ethan Moreau running into Robert Luongo; had he not done that, than Potulny wouldn't have been stuck in his own end and he wouldn't have accidentally put the puck over the boards.

Very poor game for Dustin Penner, who looked half a step behind all night.

Robert Nilsson coughing up the puck at the opposition blue line never gets old.

That was an epic battle between Rick Rypien and Zack Stortini, although I was confused by Stortini's tactics: when did the forearms become more effective weapons than the fists?

Bless Steve Staios, he can't take that interference penalty; it was a game sinker. Between he, Moreau and Visnovsky (who took a poor hooking call in the first) the Oilers' veterans were the ones making costly mental errors.

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#1 Colin
December 27 2009, 12:18AM
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Gained some ground on the leafs in the lottery jockeying, good night overall.

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#2 ebi
December 27 2009, 12:32AM
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I've long given up any hopes of success so losing doesn't sting anymore. However, it'd be nice if management recognized the problem. At the very least, they should pick up a cheap veteran backup so that Devan Dubnyk can return to the AHL and continue his development.

Hmm. So how 'bout that Eberle and MPS?

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#3 GSC
December 27 2009, 12:58AM
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Let's continue to defend Horcoff and his play for an overpaid salary.

16 PTS, - 19, $5.5 MIL. Not good enough, not NEARLY good enough. And don't you dare argue that his shoulder is hurting...if it was that bad, he would not be in the lineup.

No one can defend him at this stage. NO ONE. Show me whatever math and stats you've compiled, he's not producing at the level to merit his grossly overpaid contract. First line centres produce and create offence. Horcoff does nothing of the sort.

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#4 brucechris
December 27 2009, 12:58AM
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I think it's pretty simple... if you are one of the SIX players on the ice, you should absolutely get a minus on the play if you don't manage to keep the puck out of your net. You do outnumber your opposition at this point after all.

Stortini must have thought he was wearing Souray's wrist guard. Souray was mostly dreadful tonight.

Dustin Penner didn't have a particularly good game. Lots of missed opportunities, from what I could see.

The CBC commentators were talking about how much the 4th line was stirring things up for the Oil... all I saw was Moreau make bad plays all night and Cogs got manhandled into ineffectiveness yet again.

Hmm... Hall or Seguin?

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#5 brucechris
December 27 2009, 01:00AM
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@GSC

Agreed. It seems that even his well of "intangibles" has dried up. I would have named Visnovsky as a star long before Horc as far as this game goes.

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#8 brucechris
December 27 2009, 01:11AM
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@Jonathan Willis

We could keep six guys out and count on Smid to keep those on-the-line nailbiters out of the net.

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#9 common sense
December 27 2009, 02:15AM
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Everyone except a few people in Tibet knew what the Oiler deficiencies were even prior to training camp. Tambellini should've addressed some of these unless the masterplan all along was to try and get the lottery pick....

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#10 jeanshorts
December 27 2009, 02:41AM
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Well, Taylor Hall had a pretty sweet game tonight. How long until the draft again?

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#11 jeanshorts
December 27 2009, 02:48AM
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I guess Eberle and MPS had pretty alright nights too.

September 2010 here we come!

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#12 Oilfan6
December 27 2009, 02:50AM
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I agree that smid cogs and gilbert had strong games.

And i honestly think this team would be in about 8th to 9th if Moreau was gone he has cost us so many games, and if we had our full team then we could possibly be in 6th

Horcoff's shoulder is hurting him, why else would he not be taking lots of draws and missing practices, we have to many injuries to let him sit out.

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#13 Phil
December 27 2009, 03:20AM
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I applaud you sir (J.Willis), for spinning this turd.

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#14 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
December 27 2009, 08:49AM
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GSC wrote:

Let's continue to defend Horcoff and his play for an overpaid salary.

16 PTS, - 19, $5.5 MIL. Not good enough, not NEARLY good enough. And don't you dare argue that his shoulder is hurting...if it was that bad, he would not be in the lineup.

No one can defend him at this stage. NO ONE. Show me whatever math and stats you've compiled, he's not producing at the level to merit his grossly overpaid contract. First line centres produce and create offence. Horcoff does nothing of the sort.

you are looking at it the wrong way.

keep all of these guys together. with no changes, it is very clear that this team will continue to shat all over itself, and the need for a tank job disappears. the overpaid, underperforming group will take care of things on their own.

it should also continue to highlight some of the absolutely idiotic choices made by management over the last couple of years. maybe, just maybe, katz will do something about it.

in regards to horcoff, i hope he puts up 30 points and a -26 this year. maybe, just maybe, something will be done.

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#15 Jenga
December 27 2009, 09:07AM
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Wake me up when the season is over.

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#16 RossCreekNation
December 27 2009, 09:11AM
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Just watched the Stortini-Rypien fight. Pretty good tilt. Stortini did well, but to hear Rod & Bob last night and then watch it today... quite the difference. They made it seem like Stortini clearly won. I know Rod usually gets carried away with these types of things, but I thought Bobby usually called it as it was. C'mon now. "Forearm shivers"... lol.

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#17 Dwayne
December 27 2009, 09:42AM
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Just tank it I want a draft pic. Then I would like Kevin Lowe and all the boys on the bus to be removed from the oilers organization, hire some real hockey team builders. Tambo hasn't showed me anything that he is anygood! Its going to be a long year. Sometimes it hard to be an oilers fan but we will be good again someday!

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#18 dunciano
December 27 2009, 09:46AM
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I'm wondering if Stortini has damaged knuckles on his right hand because he was using the bottom of his fist.

He did good though against a very good fighter.

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#19 sOilersSuck
December 27 2009, 10:09AM
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dunciano

I noticed that too, Stortini's hand must be hurting him to be throwing puches like that.

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#20 madjam
December 27 2009, 10:34AM
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Ever since Horcoff landed that exhorbitant contract he has done nothing but manage his money by avoiding the heavy traffic areas of the rink ! He can't motor fast enough to rush out of the traffic areas most nights , and basically lose himself in some corner of the rink while rest of team makes up for his absenses . Moreau was washed up 3 years ago and his foot speed with it . Moreau still feels showing grit and toughness is hooking, holding and slashing opponents and spends an exhorbitant amount of time taking momentum changing penalties . Tams will most likely get rid of Horcoff,Moreau and maybe Souray to take on another overpaid and falling player @ 10M a season in Lecavalier if he would remove his no trade contract . Eberle another power forward (not) to go along with our other Smurfs . If he was as good as they think , he would have beaten some of the Smurfs off our team and be playing for the big club as Gagner and Cogs did . Horcoff should be benched until he decides to go back into the traffic areas he did in his one and only break out season !!

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#21 Death Metal Nightmare
December 27 2009, 10:38AM
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why shouldnt Horcoff get a minus on an emtpy net goal? if the opposition has the balls to pull the goalie to gain an offensive advantage - it sure the hell better be a minus if the other team scores. thats the chance you take pulling the goalie.

that being said, this season is over. and most of us thought it was the coaching that made this team lame. expect internet traffic to drop.

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#22 millertime
December 27 2009, 10:48AM
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Who were those retards in leotards (green) outside the Oilers penalty box? I couldn't figure out if they were some crazy fans or some CGI thing

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#23 millertime
December 27 2009, 10:52AM
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Is the new years eve game vs the Flames really NOT televised?

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#24 sOilersSuck
December 27 2009, 10:54AM
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madjam :"Horcoff should be benched until he decides to go back into the traffic areas he did in his one and only break out season !!"

I think it's only a "break out" season if you continue putting up the same or better numbers. So to me Horcoff had an overachieved "good" season, and nothing more. Lowe was dumb in thinking someone else would have scooped him up for that kind of coin. This is the thing about all the pro sports, one good season gets you an awesome contract, even if it was an abberation.

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#26 Ogden Brother
December 27 2009, 11:05AM
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"Let's continue to defend Horcoff and his play for an overpaid salary.

16 PTS, - 19, $5.5 MIL. Not good enough, not NEARLY good enough. And don't you dare argue that his shoulder is hurting...if it was that bad, he would not be in the lineup.

No one can defend him at this stage. NO ONE. Show me whatever math and stats you've compiled, he's not producing at the level to merit his grossly overpaid contract. First line centres produce and create offence. Horcoff does nothing of the sort."

I haven't checked in the last few days, but: did you know Horcoff was the teams 2nd leader scorer over the last 20 or so games? Not far behind Penner.

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#27 Ogden Brother
December 27 2009, 11:09AM
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"And i honestly think this team would be in about 8th to 9th if Moreau was gone he has cost us so many games, and if we had our full team then we could possibly be in 6th"

Thanks for the laugh.

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#28 Ogden Brother
December 27 2009, 11:13AM
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That was really the perfect game for the Oilers. Fairly entertaining, showed some development by a few guys and most importantly got the L.

We should all be extatic right now.

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#29 5Cups
December 27 2009, 11:24AM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

"Let's continue to defend Horcoff and his play for an overpaid salary.

16 PTS, - 19, $5.5 MIL. Not good enough, not NEARLY good enough. And don't you dare argue that his shoulder is hurting...if it was that bad, he would not be in the lineup.

No one can defend him at this stage. NO ONE. Show me whatever math and stats you've compiled, he's not producing at the level to merit his grossly overpaid contract. First line centres produce and create offence. Horcoff does nothing of the sort."

I haven't checked in the last few days, but: did you know Horcoff was the teams 2nd leader scorer over the last 20 or so games? Not far behind Penner.

How about we compare him to everyone? Did you know Horcoff is 209th place in the league for points? I dont think that you wil change anybodys mind about Horc.

I used to be his biggest fan. I wanted him to develop and become a major factor. The year after the lock out it looked like it may be starting to happen; however that never continued. Now because of 1 decent year we are hamstrung with a very bad contract until 2015.

There is no way around this. The make up of the Oilers, from the ECHL to the NHL is not working. Its time to make a major changes in this organization.

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#30 Ogden Brother
December 27 2009, 11:52AM
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"How about we compare him to everyone? Did you know Horcoff is 209th place in the league for points? I dont think that you wil change anybodys mind about Horc.

I used to be his biggest fan. I wanted him to develop and become a major factor. The year after the lock out it looked like it may be starting to happen; however that never continued. Now because of 1 decent year we are hamstrung with a very bad contract until 2015.

There is no way around this. The make up of the Oilers, from the ECHL to the NHL is not working. Its time to make a major changes in this organization."

Why do so many people have trouble with facts?

since the lock-out He's had 2 years where he's produced at a mid range 1st liner clip.

2 more where he's produced at a top end 2nd line clip.

Now I guess we can all have our own definition of "decent", but to me he's had 2 "decent" years and two very strong years in the last 4.

As for this game of "what an overpaid team" that everyone wants to play. This team is not icing it's 56 million dollar roster, they are icing a 46.8 million dollar roster. That 46.8 million would be the 4th lowest paid roster in the league.

A healthy roster (56 million)should put them in the 15 - 22 place in the standings, going by league averages that would cost you between 53.5 million and 55.8 million.

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#31 GSC
December 27 2009, 12:19PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

@ GSC:

He had a good game. I'm not going to flog a guy for a poor season when he has a good game.

As for his season, if you're going to flog Horcoff for his plus/minus than you should look at his on-ice save percentage (.863).

He's had a bad season, yes. But a good chunk of it starts there.

JW,

It's time to stop deflecting the blame and look at the Horcoff situation for what it is: he's paid the most amongst any Oiler forward, and he's not producing offence at an acceptable rate. Not even close.

He needs to bring more to the table in terms of offence, it's primarily the reason Lowe handed him that contract. There has to be the expectation that he will be almost a point-per-game player, since his past stats have been in that range.

You can cite save percentage, linemates, competition, injury (although he's still dressing), etc. It won't change the fact that he hasn't been good enough, and the buck stops right there.

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#32 GSC
December 27 2009, 12:23PM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

"Let's continue to defend Horcoff and his play for an overpaid salary.

16 PTS, - 19, $5.5 MIL. Not good enough, not NEARLY good enough. And don't you dare argue that his shoulder is hurting...if it was that bad, he would not be in the lineup.

No one can defend him at this stage. NO ONE. Show me whatever math and stats you've compiled, he's not producing at the level to merit his grossly overpaid contract. First line centres produce and create offence. Horcoff does nothing of the sort."

I haven't checked in the last few days, but: did you know Horcoff was the teams 2nd leader scorer over the last 20 or so games? Not far behind Penner.

Yes, I did know that. So what?

He's still not up to snuff.

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#33 Shaun Doe
December 27 2009, 12:37PM
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millertime wrote:

Who were those retards in leotards (green) outside the Oilers penalty box? I couldn't figure out if they were some crazy fans or some CGI thing

Well there are two explanations for those "leotard guys". One is they are the green men from the show, "It's allways sunny in phillidelphia", who have been borrowed from Philly Eagles games due to the title of the show. So some Canuck fans decided to dress up like that and apparently they have season tickets next to the penalty box since they have been there since the Nashville game. In reaction to their "hillarious" appearance, the Vancouver media and population with nothing better to talk about, apparnetly, sang their virtues for the past few days and the guys wearing them may have decided to keep it going untill the end of all time. Hooray

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#34 Ogden Brother
December 27 2009, 12:46PM
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@ GSC

I agree that his production is unacceptably low, however peoples expectation for what 5.5 million bucks gets you is completly out of whack

"There has to be the expectation that he will be almost a point-per-game player"

Depending on whether certain guys are ear marked at C or on the wing Horcoff fits somehwere in the 18th - 25th range for highest cap hit center. Theirs also a handful of raises that have been handed out that will fall ahead of him in the pay scale next year (adjusting for some of the cap cheating heavy front loaded deals as well).

As of today the 18th highest scoring center is on pace for 72 points, the 25th highest scoring center is on pace for 63 points.

Last year the 18th highest scoring center had 69 points, the 25th highest scoring center had 59 points.

If he can get 60+ points (which he wont this year) he's basically fair value.

A 50 - 55 point center (which is what he's been since he got out of his 2 point in 12 game slump to start the year) falls somewhere in the 30 - 40 range in the scoring race amoungst centers. A 30 - 40th highest paid center costs you between 4 and 4.5 million dollars.

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#35 GSC
December 27 2009, 12:46PM
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Shaun Doe wrote:

Well there are two explanations for those "leotard guys". One is they are the green men from the show, "It's allways sunny in phillidelphia", who have been borrowed from Philly Eagles games due to the title of the show. So some Canuck fans decided to dress up like that and apparently they have season tickets next to the penalty box since they have been there since the Nashville game. In reaction to their "hillarious" appearance, the Vancouver media and population with nothing better to talk about, apparnetly, sang their virtues for the past few days and the guys wearing them may have decided to keep it going untill the end of all time. Hooray

That's Vancouver for you...always mooching off of something else rather than creating on their own.

Must suck to never have won a damned thing.

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#36 Racki
December 27 2009, 12:48PM
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Pretty accurate observations, JW.

I agree too about Cogliano.... he's definitely getting the ol' screw job because of other small skill forwards ahead of him. The Oil need to make decisions on who to keep so players such as himself (or someone else if he's moved) can eat up more quality ice time with more quality line mates.

I'm honestly tired of Moreau. Really, I feel bad in a way for the guy because he once was a hero around here. But he hurts this team way more frequently than he helps it, and it's time to stop giving players the benefit of the doubt for past performances (especially considering that his best years are about 5 years removed now).

I also really liked Gilbert and Souray tonight. Patience with him is paying off. But I still want to see one of Gilbert or Grebeshkov moved. We need a shutdown/bruising defenceman.

Anyways, crappy game... but I don't even get bothered by losses anymore. In fact, I embrace them... cause I'm hoping we can finish in the bottom two for that illustrious Hall/Seguin pick!

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#37 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
December 27 2009, 12:52PM
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GSC wrote:

JW,

It's time to stop deflecting the blame and look at the Horcoff situation for what it is: he's paid the most amongst any Oiler forward, and he's not producing offence at an acceptable rate. Not even close.

He needs to bring more to the table in terms of offence, it's primarily the reason Lowe handed him that contract. There has to be the expectation that he will be almost a point-per-game player, since his past stats have been in that range.

You can cite save percentage, linemates, competition, injury (although he's still dressing), etc. It won't change the fact that he hasn't been good enough, and the buck stops right there.

while i agree 110% horcoff is overpaid, and i think the deal was insanely bad, we do need to look at circumstance as well.

it should be painfully obvious by now the oilers have to overpay to keep/attract players. horcoff, on the open market, probably gets in the 4-4.5mil range.

can the player really be blamed for getting a contract that is far to rich? especially one signed before his (at the time) deal had even expired?

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#38 GSC
December 27 2009, 12:52PM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

@ GSC

I agree that his production is unacceptably low, however peoples expectation for what 5.5 million bucks gets you is completly out of whack

"There has to be the expectation that he will be almost a point-per-game player"

Depending on whether certain guys are ear marked at C or on the wing Horcoff fits somehwere in the 18th - 25th range for highest cap hit center. Theirs also a handful of raises that have been handed out that will fall ahead of him in the pay scale next year (adjusting for some of the cap cheating heavy front loaded deals as well).

As of today the 18th highest scoring center is on pace for 72 points, the 25th highest scoring center is on pace for 63 points.

Last year the 18th highest scoring center had 69 points, the 25th highest scoring center had 59 points.

If he can get 60+ points (which he wont this year) he's basically fair value.

A 50 - 55 point center (which is what he's been since he got out of his 2 point in 12 game slump to start the year) falls somewhere in the 30 - 40 range in the scoring race amoungst centers. A 30 - 40th highest paid center costs you between 4 and 4.5 million dollars.

Considering Horcoff put up seasons of 73 PTS (79 GP), and 50 PTS (53 GP), I'd say Kevin Lowe handed him that big ol' contract with the expectation that he would continue to produce at the 70-point level. In fact, I guarantee that he did.

I agree, if he would put up 60+ then it wouldn't be a problem. But it is a problem, he failed to do so last year and it looks like this season will be no different. I'll even take your stance on it and say that a player in his scoring range in the last 20 games earns about $4-4.5 MIL. Bottom line? He's still overpaid by $1-1.5 MIL.

I am a stickler for value/bang-for-buck players. You NEED them to succeed in the NHL cap world. The Oilers have far too few value players and too many overpays. That's a bad mix.

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#39 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
December 27 2009, 01:03PM
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GSC wrote:

Considering Horcoff put up seasons of 73 PTS (79 GP), and 50 PTS (53 GP), I'd say Kevin Lowe handed him that big ol' contract with the expectation that he would continue to produce at the 70-point level. In fact, I guarantee that he did.

I agree, if he would put up 60+ then it wouldn't be a problem. But it is a problem, he failed to do so last year and it looks like this season will be no different. I'll even take your stance on it and say that a player in his scoring range in the last 20 games earns about $4-4.5 MIL. Bottom line? He's still overpaid by $1-1.5 MIL.

I am a stickler for value/bang-for-buck players. You NEED them to succeed in the NHL cap world. The Oilers have far too few value players and too many overpays. That's a bad mix.

in a perfect world, or almost any other city than edmonton, that makes sense.

fact: nobody wants to come here right now, and the team HAS to overpay players to both keep them and attract them. even then, the players are NOT top end. so,, essentially, the oilers are running their roster on a top end price with 2nd tier players.

if a player can make 4.5 here, or 4.5 somewhere else, why, oh why, would they pick to play here?

- team stinks - management stinks - weather stinks - fishbowl atmosphere etc etc etc etc etc

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#40 Maverick
December 27 2009, 01:14PM
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I like how Moreau blamed the loss on the PP and penalty kill.

Who took the retarded goalie interference penalty again Mr. Captain.

What a loser, first the pussy ass "I don't like to get hit when it's 6-2" now this. He's not a Captain anymore

loser

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#41 Ogden Brother
December 27 2009, 01:18PM
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@ GSC

1 million dollar overpay, big deal.

Overpaid players (based on market value/comparebles):

Horc 1.5 Gilbert 2 Grebs 1.5 Moreau .5 Staios 1 Osully 1 JDD .5

Total - 8 million

Underpaid players:

Vish 1 Souray .5 Hemsky 2 Penner 2 Gagner 1 Brule 1.5 Smid 1

Total - 9 million

Everyone gets wrapped up over this guy or that guy making to much. It's the team that matters on the ice and it's the team that matters on the payroll. You build the best team you can for 57 million, it doesn't really matter how it's allocated, simply that you've spent the 57 million on the best 22 guys you can.

Players production (or overall game) isn't static, your highly overpaid guy yesterday (penner) is now your underpaid guy today.

The issues with this team are:

1. Hitching the wagon to injury prone players (Penner/Vish/Souray/Horc/Hemsky/Bulin are the teams 6 best players (far and away)all but Penner have had significant injuries that could prove to be cronic

2. Poor balance, the team could get the same caliber of players for roughly the same $$$'s, only with proper balance. ie the names wouldn't be substantially better, but the synergy would be.

A few guys making .5 million - 1.5 million too much isn't what is holding this team back. Injury proned players and no balance is.

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#42 The Real Scuba Steve
December 27 2009, 01:53PM
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Even if we did luck out and get Hall or Seguin, they will probably spend at least 1 year in the minors, so the Oil will probably be in the same spot next year so we maybe not have a contender team like the Hawks for about 3-4 years. Does this sound like a good plan if we miss the play offs for another 4 years to load up on young draft picks?

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#43 bigrroberto
December 27 2009, 02:09PM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

@ GSC

1 million dollar overpay, big deal.

Overpaid players (based on market value/comparebles):

Horc 1.5 Gilbert 2 Grebs 1.5 Moreau .5 Staios 1 Osully 1 JDD .5

Total - 8 million

Underpaid players:

Vish 1 Souray .5 Hemsky 2 Penner 2 Gagner 1 Brule 1.5 Smid 1

Total - 9 million

Everyone gets wrapped up over this guy or that guy making to much. It's the team that matters on the ice and it's the team that matters on the payroll. You build the best team you can for 57 million, it doesn't really matter how it's allocated, simply that you've spent the 57 million on the best 22 guys you can.

Players production (or overall game) isn't static, your highly overpaid guy yesterday (penner) is now your underpaid guy today.

The issues with this team are:

1. Hitching the wagon to injury prone players (Penner/Vish/Souray/Horc/Hemsky/Bulin are the teams 6 best players (far and away)all but Penner have had significant injuries that could prove to be cronic

2. Poor balance, the team could get the same caliber of players for roughly the same $$$'s, only with proper balance. ie the names wouldn't be substantially better, but the synergy would be.

A few guys making .5 million - 1.5 million too much isn't what is holding this team back. Injury proned players and no balance is.

2x

One of the better things I've read on here in awhile.

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#44 Racki
December 27 2009, 02:21PM
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The Real Scuba Steve wrote:

Even if we did luck out and get Hall or Seguin, they will probably spend at least 1 year in the minors, so the Oil will probably be in the same spot next year so we maybe not have a contender team like the Hawks for about 3-4 years. Does this sound like a good plan if we miss the play offs for another 4 years to load up on young draft picks?

The Oilers shouldn't be trying to spend 4 years loading up on draft picks. We've already spent 3 years and are likely coming up on a 4th.

The idea to tank for Tyler/Taylor comes from the (almost) fact that this season is a write-off. Our chances are very low in making the playoffs. Our chances are very likely though (just given past, recent history) that we'll somehow manage to slot in the 20th-ish spot.

Sooooo, for those of us out there that have considered this season a loss... would we rather see the team make a failed, but valiant attempt at making the playoffs (and really getting us no further ahead, in the future)? Or would we rather see the team hit rock bottom, pick up a potentially elite player (who actually could play next year, but that's besides the point), and make some roster tweaks to turn things around (starting the trade deadline), helping the future of the team?

Either way, whether the team tanks or continues prodding along, they still need to make some key changes next year. But I'd just like to see the team pick up one more star along the way. Why not?

I know some people are hanging on to the possibility of playoffs still this year, but realistically it ain't happenin'. 10 points doesn't sound like much, however someone on one of these hockey sites pointed out that in order to reach that magic cutoff (91 points I think), we'd have to win at a clip that is on par with how the first place teams have played all year... starting now... still sound doable?

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#45 Phil
December 27 2009, 02:52PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

@ GSC:

He had a good game. I'm not going to flog a guy for a poor season when he has a good game.

As for his season, if you're going to flog Horcoff for his plus/minus than you should look at his on-ice save percentage (.863).

He's had a bad season, yes. But a good chunk of it starts there.

"As for his season, if you're going to flog Horcoff for his plus/minus than you should look at his on-ice save percentage (.863). He's had a bad season, yes. But a good chunk of it starts there."

oh my Lord.

I can't believe I just read this garbage from you. Well, actually I can, but still that is just sad. The excuses never stop coming. You guys on the Oilogosphere are kissing your "credibility" goodbye with this nonsense.

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#46 Colin
December 27 2009, 03:03PM
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The Real Scuba Steve wrote:

Even if we did luck out and get Hall or Seguin, they will probably spend at least 1 year in the minors, so the Oil will probably be in the same spot next year so we maybe not have a contender team like the Hawks for about 3-4 years. Does this sound like a good plan if we miss the play offs for another 4 years to load up on young draft picks?

Yes. Making the playoffs is no longer good enough. This teams goal should be to win the division and hoist the cup every damn year. I'm sick of playing for mediocrity and hoping the stars align and a miracle run(2006) can happen. How about we build a team smartly and set the bar high?

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#47 hyneser
December 27 2009, 03:07PM
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Yeah go oilers

Tyler hall over to eberle back to hall over to brule, brule scores!

Has a nice ring to it don't it?

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#48 Ogden Brother
December 27 2009, 03:31PM
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@ Scuba Steve

"Even if we did luck out and get Hall or Seguin, they will probably spend at least 1 year in the minors?"

Highly unlikely, I don't know when the last 1st overall pick (forward) didn't make the jump to the NHL the first available year.

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#49 Ogden Brother
December 27 2009, 03:55PM
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@ Phil

"oh my Lord.

I can't believe I just read this garbage from you. Well, actually I can, but still that is just sad. The excuses never stop coming. You guys on the Oilogosphere are kissing your "credibility" goodbye with this nonsense."

Nonsense? This is a fairly simple concept Phill.

To keep the #'s simple, lets assume the teams SV% is .05% higher when Horc ISN'T on the ice, giving the team a .913 SV% (probably pretty close to what it actually is). Now, Horcoff plays roughly 1/3 of the game, so again, to keep the numbers simple, lets assume he's on the ice for 10 shots against/game.

What that means is for every 10 games played, the Oilers are letting up the equivalent of 5 more goals when Horc is on then when he's off. That equals out to about 18 goals for the total amount of games he's played.

Now of course that doesn't tell the whole story, or let Horc completly off the hook. I mean he could be (and I'm sure he has a few times) made errors that put the opposition in a high % shooting area... meaning he would be at fault for at least part of the abnormaly low SV%. However with 4 other players on the ice, a goalie and luck + bounces, it's a pretty big stretch to conclude that he is responsible for all or even most of that statistical annomolie.

In other words, if the team had an average SV% when he was on the ice, he would be roughly an even player at this point.

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#50 Ogden Brother
December 27 2009, 04:04PM
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Happy thought of the day: I was talking to a friend yesterday that has a family connection to the Pats hockey opperations. He was talking with over Xmas break. The fellow with the Pats was telling him that most in his circles feel Eberle is one of, if not the best player in the CHL. He also thought he was NHL ready this year and was one of the best jr players he's every played with/had in his orginization.

He was confident Eberle will be an NHL star.

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