GDB 67: Moreau and Souray in it to win it
Jason Gregor
March 12 2009 12:26PM
The Oilers looked like a team a few days before the start of the season, with 24 players, five coaches and third goalie Floyd Whitney on the ice for the morning skate today. They went through a bevy of cross-ice and two-on-two, and two-on-one passing drills. Sad thing is they didn’t come close to scoring as often as Peter Pocklington has been charged by creditors.
Sheldon Souray was out there and took part in every drill so he will suit up tonight. Ethan Moreau also skated hard, while wearing the darkest colour-tinted visor I’d seen, so expect him to play as well.
Moreau’s visor makes him look a bit like a Euro, but he insisted his game won’t change due to the visor.
What will change is the lineup. Moreau and Penner will dress tonight, and they’ll play on the same line with Kyle Brodziak.
21 – 10 – 83 12 – 89 – 78 19 – 13 – 34 18 – 51 – 27
This is how they will start but if the Kovalchuk - White - Little line gives the Oilers problems don’t be surprised to see Horcoff, Moreau and Pisani become a trio to try and shut them down.
MacTavish admitted the lines could become very interchangeable tonight. Altanta coach John Anderson told me yesterday on my show that he likes to juggle his lines a lot, so expect to see many different combinations tonight.
A Horcoff - Moreau - Pisani trio could become reality down the stretch as a shut-down line.
Don’t think MacTavish doesn’t listen to the radio or read the Internet based on his comments today. He was asked about O’Sullivan and his overall game.
“I’m trying to find offensive opportunities for O’Sullivan. I want to get him some power-play time. I’m not going to pigeon-hole him as a checker just yet, that’s apparently my expertise to turn offence into checkers. He is in the process right now, (he laughs) but hopefully he has more goals in him.”
It looks like MacTavish is going with his most offensive unit of the season. The competition for ice-time tonight should be fierce, and if players are going early MacTavish said they will play more.
The Thrashers are playing well right now, going 6-3-1 in their last ten, with Johan Hedberg between the pipes, so the Oilers can’t overlook the lottery-bound Thrashers.
Their top line of Kovalchuk - White - Little have combined for 82 goals and 183 points, compared to Hemsky - Horcoff - Penner’s 49 goals and 128 points. Look for Souray and Staios to match up against that line.
Nice to see Brodziak playing with slightly better linemates though.
I'll say only one stupid penalty in Moreau's return.
Jason Gregor wrote:
Thanks J! I knew Stone wasn't a great skater, but didn't realize he was that bad. I guess thats why Pit traded him then, eh. From the little I've seen, I like Potulny better than Pouliot, and I'd take Brule over Nilsson.
Do you think either POULET or Nilsson will be back next year?
Morea-Horcoff-Pisani
SHOULD be the 3rd line of this team, for years to come. Instead, it's an interchangeable makeshift creation of a line that MacT has inferred he's willing to use against a deadly Kovalchuk-White-Little line.
top 6 should be your offense (you obviously one players who can backcheck, but 1st and foremost, scorers)
3rd line checking line
4th line of interchangeable parts i.e. grinders/enforcers/energy guys.
It's simple really.
The make up of this Oilers team is completely f*cked.
Anyways, go Oilers, I think they win this one tonight.
I say 6-3 on home ice.
I realise we already know the answer, but the question is still important.
*obviously want players who backcheck, one solid two-way guy.
Why not play Nilsson with Cogliano? They're good together. Also I'm not sold on Gagner centering Hemsky... Gagner doesn't generate much on the rush, and Hemsky doesn't generate much on the cycle...
RossCreek wrote:
I'm not a Pouliot backer, but I'd take him over Potulny any day.
Brule bring much more sandpaper to his game than Nilsson and could play in a wider range of situations, so I could see that down the road. Nilsson does have better natural skill, if he chooses to use it.
I can only see one of Nilsson or Pouliot here next year, and wouldn't be surprised if both are gone. Pouliot't salary would be much easier to keep though.
Curtis S.. I like your line-up proposal a lot. Let the grinders do what they do best together. One note, I believe O'Sullivan could play center and could see him, Kotalik and Hemsky together IF Kotalik and Hemsky can start creating a little chemistry...
It's interesting that when O'Sullivan was put together with Hemsky and Nilsson that they scored right away. I love Horcoff but it looks like he's lost his offensive game this year and I believe should be moved down a line or two letting him play defensive hockey and let Hemsky play with two gifted offensive players and see what would happen.
Chris wrote:
I have trouble wrapping my head around MacT's reluctance to do that as well.
The only time Nilsson has looked like a hockey player was down the stretch last year and that was with Cogliano in the middle. It made sense to try Nilsson with Gagner but surely at some point when it's obvious that it's not clicking between the two you have to re-consider that his chemistry was actually with Cogliano.
@ Jason Gregor:
Good stuff Gregor. Love the show. Couldn't have imagined anyone else but you taking over for Stauff.
While we're at it: Grebeshkov @ 3 ish OR Gilbert @ 4
??
All things considered (not the least of which should be chemistry - how would the youngsters react to losing Gilbert vs losing Grebeshkov, and how much does that matter?), who would you keep? Who would bring more value in a trade - Gilbert @ 4 for 5 more years or a RFA Grebeshkov?
To me, they could use a big, tough shutdown type - say like a Matt Greene for instance. Oooops.
@ RossCreek:
The Gilbert v. Grebeshkov debate will depend on whether they get a UFA or not. If they get a top end UFA, then money will be the main issue. Grebeshkov is a year late for getting a big payday. No chance he will get close to Gilbert's salary.
Both would have cache on the market, and if the Oilers can land a scoring UFA, don't be surprised if they move one of their puck-moving D-men to acquire a scoring forward.
As for banging D-man, Smid and Peckham are the only options in the system. Smid is getting better, but needs to learn how to avoid getting rocked.
The most glaring void on this team is scoring and in the off-season that will be priority #1. A banging D-man is probably 2A on the list.
5Cups wrote:
Jason Gregor wrote:
15 points in 43 games for Potulny at the NHL level so far. More than twice as many goals and nearly twice as many points as Brule in the minors. I'd say that it has yet to be decided if he can score. Since you mentioned Syvret, it's probably worth noting that's he's got not only an NHL callup but three times as many points as any other Flyers AHL defenseman - not exactly chopped liver.
As for everybody wanting more sandpaper in the lineup, what do any of the minor league players provide in that department that Stortini, MacIntyre and Jacques don't? If you want more sandpaper, you dress one of those three.
Jason Gregor wrote:
Where does the penalty kill fit in on the list of needs?
@ Jason Gregor:
Gregor, If the Oil would be shopping Gilbert around my guess would be that they try to pry away a forward. Do you know of any big name forwards that can be pryed away from clubs for a Gilbert (and maybe a Horcoff)?
The Towel Boy wrote:
....Who Saw This Coming???
*places quarter in envelope and mails to Towel Boy*
A little further to my point about team needs - here is the Oilers' ranking in a couple of categories:
Goal For Per Game: 2.77 (17th) Goals Against Per Game: 3.02 (23rd) Powerplay: 16.5% (22nd) Penalty Kill: 76.5% (28th)
None of those areas are exactly strengths, but it seems to me that scoring isn't the most pressing concern. Defensive play, in particular the penalty kill, is what's destroyed the Oilers this season.
Jonathan Willis wrote:
Don't forget that there is no long term solution in net either.
Jonathan: i think the PK will be helped by a tough stay at home dman. Here's hoping they get the right personnel in place (like Cogliano) and get another center that can win a faceoff. I wonder if that fact alone has had a huge impact on the PK, since often brodziak and horcoff go out there together.
The good news about a line-up like this is considering MacT's either forgot how or no longer cares to bother matching up lines - witness the third period debacle at Mtl - every line we put out tonight will have at least one guy who's played and/or excelled in this role in the past.
The PK's suction has been bought and paid for all season - lots of chances against mean lots of goals against - and Cole was actually one of our best killers. I remember the days when the Oil rolled six forwards on their PK unit - I saw the rags do this on Sunday and then I heard they have the 2nd best PK unit in the league - and pressured down-ice but much like Joe Hulbig, that's a memory now.
BTW, speaking of the PK, awesome quote by Reasoner.
Jonathan Willis wrote:
Scoring in the AHL means nothing to scoring in the NHL. Is Potulny a top-six forward in the NHL? No and never will be. No role for him anywhere else. Brule can play on an energy if necessary for a year or two and work his way up the ladder and possibly becoming a 2nd liner.
Syvret getting a call up mean he is the same as Potulny. Good AHLer who is a bit NHLer at best.
Jonathan Willis wrote:
That isn't a one player fix, although another guy who wins faceoffs will help.
DBO wrote:
It's too bad that Steve Tambellini didn't have an extra second round pick to toss out there for a checking line centre who could win a draw and help on the power-play.
Oh, right.
Well, it's too bad then that all of the teams with checking line centres like sami Pahlsson hung on to them, then.
Oh, right.
This team has been short of legitimate NHL players who can find their butt without a map and compass at both ends of the rink. By my count, there's Horcoff, Moreau, Pisani, Hemsky.... and that's pretty much it up front. Penner or Brodziak on a good day. Having even one more guy who could win a faceoff would be a good thing (and that's a skill Pouliot supplies - anybody catch him taking a bunch of Gagner's draws over the last couple of games).
Jason Gregor wrote:
You could be right about that, and adding O'Sullivan was a step in the right direction, IMO. Still, a tough defenseman or a forward with the ability to win draws and some defensive ability would help.
I really wonder why Pouliot doesn't get tried on the PK - he'd seem to be the closest thing on the roster to what's needed.
If you want to hear why I miss Reasoner...listen to his comments at www.justagame.ca
He is a classic. Good sense of humour and still quick to rip guys.
Jason Gregor wrote:
Admittedly, I'm quibbling here, but I'd suggest that a player who doesn't score in the AHL won't score in the NHL either.
In other words, while AHL scoring doesn't necessarily translate, it's not exactly unrelated either.
Jonathan Willis wrote:
Jarret Stoll & Matt Greene would definately solve those problems. Too bad the Oil couldn't get there hands on them... Ooooops!
Just check the pk stats for LA last seaon vs this season compared to the Oilers last season vs this season.
Dennis wrote:
If only I could wipe Joe Hulbig from my memory.
Anyways, Moreau, Pisani, Horcoff, Brodziak, and O'Sullivan would seem to be five of the six forwards the Oilers need. I'm not sure if O'Sullivan completely fills the hole left by Cole (who did look great there), but he should help.
Who's the sixth? Cogliano or Pouliot would be my guess.
Jonathan Willis wrote:
It would be reasonable to think that by adding a scroring winger we would temper the goals against simply by the added time in the offensive zone. You could also get a guy like Reasoner for cheap but I would prefer a banging version and that would not limit you from chasing the home run scoring forward. Say what you will, our first line has killed us. If you could remove the second liners off of it you would then have a solid second as well.
@ RossCreek:
Stoll's a fairly elite PK'er, but Matt Greene to my eye (and by our admittedly limited statistics) was a problem on the PK.
I don't have any problem with the Visnovsky trade, but losing Stoll and Reasoner was probably not a good thing for the PK.
love it, Gregor - I sure do miss me some Marty Reasoner...
Jason Gregor wrote:
If Jay Bouwmeester wants to come home (I have my doubts), then wouldn't Visnovsky AND Gilbert OR Grebeshkov become expendable?
What about a guy like Komisarek? He played well with Souray before. What kind of $ will he be looking for - 5 ish? Doubtful he'd come here anyway as the demand will likely be high for him and he'll have his choice... just a thought.
5Cups wrote:
You ever watch Pavel Bure play? Or Ilya Kovalchuk, if you prefer - the puck spends plenty of time in the defensive zone.
The difference of course is that Bure and his ilk cash more chances than just about anybody else. Regardless, this team isn't going to go anywhere allowing more than 3 goals against per game.
JW: I am looking forward to your comments on Gregor's idea that scoring in the AHL means nothing to scoring in the NHL:)
Also, yes, 78 did a good job killing penalties in the '07 Titanic year but then outside of a couple of shifts in a game in Colu this year, we haven't heard tell of it. Of course, to get back to your point of him taking draws, I remember hearing MacT say he wasn't a centre, either;)
Gregor: not sure if it was your point or not but didn't Brule wind up in SF this year Because they wanted to put him in an offensive role? So, now, you think he can make his initial hay in the bottom six? I'm not saying he can't, I'm just saying that looks an awful lot like managed expectations.
Maybe the same kind of thing that happened with 78.
RossCreek wrote:
Visnovsky's not expendable.
Dennis wrote:
Look up a couple of comments, Dennis ;)
Obviously it doesn't automatically translate *cough*J-F Jacques*cough but it isn't exactly unrelated either.
Jonathan Willis wrote:
So IF Bouwmeester were to come back, you would have him (at 6-7), Visnovsky (at 5.6), Souray (at 5.4)??? I don't think so bud. IF, IF, IF - then Lubo's gone for a scoring forward. And you should be able to land a high-end one for a package including Visnovsky.
IF.
@ RossCreek:
If Bouwmeester wants to come here, I deal Souray or Gilbert for a cheaper physical defenseman.
Visnovsky's the best defenseman on the team, by a stretch too.
As for Visnovsky's trade value, do you remember that massive package the Oilers put together to acquire him?
@ RossCreek:
Incidentally, if someone wants to pay Bouwmeester 7-million, I sure hope it isn't the Oilers. 2010-11 is going to be scary enough as it is.
Jonathan Willis wrote:
Game. Set. Match. Willis.
Could Penner be on Moreau's line to LEARN how to play with some effort and gritt? Monkey see Monkey do
GAME DAY!!!
Jonathan Willis wrote:
Thats why I said "package" for one. For two, if he's soooo good, why couldn't you get anything of substance for him??
Kinda like when they gave up F all to get Pronger, then got F all when they dealt him, I guess.
Anyone who thinks that losing Souray will help the oil is delusional. I don’t care who they would get for him, he is a stud that plays lots of minutes and puts points on the board. Having Viz and Souray is/was the best thing the oil have/had going for them.
In my opinion we need an offensive style that maintains more possession. With the smaller size of our front-end we need to have more control rather than quick rushes that end up back in our defensive zone so quickly. I wish the NHL kept a time of possession stat like football, the oil would be DFL without question. It would explain the oils shots for/against problem and their 32-34 record.
Dennis wrote:
Brule has the grit to be a TRUE bottom six forward, Potulny and Pouliot do not. Not every offensive player automatically starts in the top six. Lots have to earn ice time on lower lines, while adjusting their game, and then when they get confidence, earn the confidence of the coach and then win more icetime.
You and JW seem hell bent on arguing for the sake of it. You love Pouliot. Look at his numbers in the AHL...have they translated? Show me the list of guys who spend two, three or four years in the minors and then become scorers in the NHL. I'm guessing there are a few, but is it the norm? Of course not. And I don't see Potulny changing it.
Guys who put up big numbers in the AHL for one year, and then score aren't the guys I'm talking about. Those players are clear elite players who used the one year as a stepping stone, and most are young players.
Fringe players like Potulny, Syvret, etc, would become rare exceptions if they ever came close to matching their AHL production in the NHL. Since you are both stat guys why don't you show the stats that say this happens as often as you suggest it does. Saying it happens once in a blue moon seems to be a direct contrast to your statistical data that you support all of the time. I look forward to your list of Potulny-like players that support your theory.
Penner had 84 points in his 2nd AHL year, and hasn't had more than 45 in the NHL. Pisani 60 points in AHL and hasn't had more than 37 in the NHL. Pouliot 47 points last year in the AHL and so far 19. Is Potulny better than either of them?
Few players who get PP time in the AHL get that in the NHL and thus their opportunity to produce is much less. That was my point. Still not sure what yours was.
swany wrote:
Effort via osmosis, an interesting concept. All those in favour of sending DO to a Mensa meeting? *raises hand and waves it wildly*
Jason Gregor wrote:
Well, my first point is you wouldn't be so easy to pick on if you made all initial points as clearly as you Just did:)
But, hey, don't get 'em all bunched up:) it's just that I don't take anything for gospel just because a guy's who he is.
Of course I know that not all "A" numbers translate but you have to put out your qualifiers when you make the point or else you're gonna get slagged. That's the way it is on the net when there's guys out there that know just as much as you do:)
Anyway, one of these days Vic Ferrari's gonna show up here with just as much snark as you throw out and he won't be near as nice as JW and he'll be even less nice than me:)
My whole point is that if you - and not you specifically but anyone - says that Brule was sent back to be an offensive guy, then I think it's talking out of the side of your mouth to say that now that's not happening, he can come up and be a grit guy. if that was the case all along, I'm sure he could play ahead of 85 right now, couldn't he?
And the whole thing about 78 not being gritty enough or whatever is just plain wrong. He showed enough in that role in '07 and '08 playing with the Reasoner's and Pisani's and showing a low enough GA rate that, yes, he can play on a third line.
Jason Gregor wrote:
Gregor bringing the heat. As much as I hate bald guys, I got to agree with Gregs. Well put.
Spector just put up an article about Penner on Sportsnet. I'd still take Penner at 4.25 over Horcoff at 7 mill next year, even if his Cap hit is only 5.5 mill.
Smokin' Ray wrote:
Better late then never :)
Moreau now has 2 different colored eyes. Shawn Horcoff has never felt more at home*
*You Are Not Alone by Michael Jackson blares through JSBM research center*