The New Additions

Jonathan Willis
March 05 2009 08:52AM

O'Sullivan

Yesterday, long after the trade deadline had passed and I’d gone home for a much-needed break from yesterday’s live-blog (a lot of fun by the way – thanks to everybody who showed up), the news trickled out that the Oilers had made a deal. When the dust settled, Steve Tambellini had robbed Carolina blind, sending Erik Cole and a 5th round pick there for a 2nd round pick and Patrick O’Sullivan (acquired from L.A. for Jason Williams). Tambellini then flipped the pick to Buffalo (who apparently have forgiven the Vanek offer sheet) in exchange for Ales Kotalik.

TSN had some good analysis, although Pierre McGuire left me a little bit confused when he explained that the Edmonton Oilers had now traded Erik Cole and Joni Pitkanen in an overpay for O’Sullivan. Pierre: it doesn’t work that way. I could hear an audible sign from elsewhere on the panel and Darren Pang patiently sort-of refuted McGuire, despite McGuire’s interruptions. Anyways, I thought it might be useful to do an in-depth analysis of the players acquired.

Patrick O’Sullivan

Contract: 2.925M per season through 2010-11. Arbitration-eligible RFA after that.

2008-09: 62GP – 14G – 23A – 37PTS, +1 2007-08: 82GP – 22G – 31A – 53PTS, -8 2006-07: 44GP – 5G – 14A – 19PTS, -6

It doesn’t show up at first, but Patrick O’Sullivan is a great acquisition by this team. He just turned 24, so there’s plenty of upside, and I imagine that this acquisition spells the end of Robert Nilsson, probably at the draft this summer. He isn’t big or particularly gritty, but he’s a very affordable player who upgrades the Oilers depth at left wing. Most importantly, he’s versatile. It was claimed in the comments section yesterday that O’Sullivan doesn’t kill penalties, but that’s inaccurate. Here are his time on ice numbers so far this season:

Even-strength: 14:04/game Power-play: 3:07/game Short-handed: 2:15/game

Let’s take a quick look at his advanced stats over his two full seasons:

2008-09: QC-7th, QT-10th, Corsi/60-2nd, PTS/60-1.87, PPPTS/60 – 2.23 2007-08: QC-6th, QT-6th, Corsi/60-9th, PTS/60-2.05, PPPTS/60 – 3.07

The first thing that jumps out is that O’Sullivan’s power-play numbers are not very good; he’s probably a second-unit guy in Edmonton. The flip side of that (although it isn’t shown here) is that his short-handed numbers are very good; only Jarret Stoll has fared better killing penalties for the Kings so far this season.

At even-strength, O’Sullivan is playing softer opposition with very weak line-mates, but if he slots in where I expect (with Sam Gagner on the second line) he won’t need to play tough opponents. His offensive numbers have dipped a bit this season, but his Corsi has improved massively; in other words, he’s spending a lot of time in the offensive zone. I love this addition, and finagling a 2nd round pick out of Carolina to boot makes this trade a clear win for Steve Tambellini. Especially when you consider that O’Sullivan is signed at a reasonable rate for two more seasons, while Cole was unrestricted.

Ales Kotalik

Contract: 2.33M per season; becomes a UFA at the end of this year

2008-09: 56GP – 13G – 19A – 32PTS, -7 2007-08: 79GP – 23G – 20A – 43PTS, -5 2006-07: 66GP – 16G – 22A – 38PTS, -5

Ales Kotalik doesn’t kill penalties, but he adds some size. He played a major role on the Buffalo power-play as a point man; it seems clear that he was added at least in part to address the injury to Lubomir Visnovsky. It’s worth noting that he’s a right-handed shot, so he could very well be more effective than Visnovsky with Sheldon Souray – it’s been a little frustrating watching Visnovsky and Souray trying to get into the same spot to unleash their left-handed slapper.

Let’s take a quick look at Kotalik’s advanced stats for the past two seasons:

2008-09: QC-12th, QT-11th, Corsi-2nd, PTS/60-1.16, PPPTS/60-4.19 2007-08: QC-10th, QT-9th, Corsi-8th, PTS/60-1.24, PPPTS/60-3.92

Kotalik’s been a remarkably ineffective scorer at even-strength over the last two years. For a little perspective, his PTS/60 number slides in right between Liam Reddox and Steve MacIntyre while playing soft opposition; in other words, I’d be very surprised if Kotalik ends up with Horcoff and Hemsky long-term, unless Lindy Ruff was grossly misusing him.

This is a power-play rental, and at the cost Tambellini paid (2nd round pick) it was probably a bad trade for the Oilers (now watch him score a hat-trick in his first game to prove me wrong). A good job by Darcy Regier to get maximum value for a rental player.

Both of these players will help the Oilers make the playoffs this season, and on the whole I agree with Lowetide’s take that Steve Tambellini had a good day. It just could have been a little better.

74b7cedc5d8bfbe88cf071309e98d2c3
Jonathan Willis is Managing Editor of the Nation Network. He also currently writes for the Edmonton Journal's Cult of Hockey, Grantland, and Hockey Prospectus. His work has appeared at theScore, ESPN and Puck Daddy. He was previously founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue. Contact him at jonathan (dot) willis (at) live (dot) ca.
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#1 Thorn
March 05 2009, 09:10AM
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The way I read, the only thing we gave up to get these 2 forwards was Cole and a 5th round pick. The 2nd round pick we used to acquire Kotalik was Carolina's which was packaged with O'Sullivan in exchange for Cole was it not? ...and the wrist bone is connected to the arm bone... Oh yeah, and way to put things into perspective McGuire you meat-head!

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#2 Steele
March 05 2009, 09:36AM
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Cole is/was a one-dimensional player for the Oilers. Sure his smashing move of driving hard to the net and trying to shovel it in is/was neat, but not EVERY TIME HE GOT THE PUCK! Happy he is gone, but i did notice Tambos slight "dig" on Cole in the press conference. Essentially, Tambo said that he talked with Cole & knew Cole wasn't going to sign with the Oil in the summer. So, see ya Mr. One Move Pony. Even your fight this year sucked!

~Steele

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#3 jayoilfan
March 05 2009, 09:44AM
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I think the trades will be good. Kotalik will could be slotted in with Hemsky and Horcoff, maybe with a good play maker like Hemsky, Kotalik will score more? Two Czech who are friends could have chemistry, who knows? At worse, if it doesn't work out all that well we are not stuck with him for next year. The draft pick would be wasted but it was part of trade so wasn't ours anyway.

O'Sullivan looks good to play with Gags and co. but he too is a little small, maybe a new kid line will develop? I heard his decrease in points may be that Cammalerri left for Calgary? Not sure how much truth there is to that one.

I think the trades give us more potential proven offence as it seems what we have now is just not cutting it, maybe this injection of new blood will get things working again with others (gags, horcoff, hemsky etc?). In some cases a change of suroundings (or line mates) does wonders.

Of course hind sight is 20/20 and we won't really now until the summer when we know more about the cap reduction and what the Oilers will do about it.

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#4 Peter Pan
March 05 2009, 09:55AM
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Willis said:

I’d be very surprised if Kotalik ends up with Horcoff and Hemsky long-term ------------------------------------------------- Well duh... MacT is still the coach and heaven forbid the guy keep any line consistency! I'm sure by the 10 minute mark of the 1st period, you'll see the line shuffling begin...again! As for the Kotalik trade, it had to be done. We just can't have Hemsky playing with Reddox. We just can't.

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#5 Ducey
March 05 2009, 10:01AM
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Obviuosly getting Ales Kotalik was a nod to trying to make the playoffs. Giving up a pick which has about a 40% chance of becoming a regular NHLer some day is worthwhile, especially when the future is protected by getting Pati-O and keeping their own first and second round picks.

Despite the way he has been playing, this might mean a demotion for Reddox. He seems to be the only guy who has a two way contract and doesn't have to pass thru waivers. I think Poo, JFJ, Nilsson all do right?

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#6 Bob Cob
March 05 2009, 10:04AM
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To use Ron Wilsons words, "Its just so freaking negative" the way everyone criticizes what the Oilers do. What were there major needs, more scoring in the top six and deal with Erik Cole's pending UFA status. Both have been accomplished, Cole is gone, O'Sullivan can score and Kotalik will do the same thing as Stoll did on the power play with his heavy shot, and an improved PP can turn a game. With the moves they improved the PK and the PP, got offensive skilled forwards, and didn't lose any youth. Whats to say Kotalik will leave this year, he is a good friend of Hemsky's and if there is any kind of chemistry on that top line, maybe he resigns. Bottom line, lets wait and see how this plays out before bitching and complaining about Tambellini not doing enough at the trade deadline.

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#7 Sean
March 05 2009, 11:16AM
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I think it was a good day as well. O'Sullivan will hopefully develop some consistency and in Kotalik they are banking on chemistry with Hemsky - otherwise we lose that trade. However, I think those trades were made in tandom, Kotalik for a second straight up might not be good value but they convinced Carolina to give them theirs to make the trades happen. Just speculating though.

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#8 Ender the Dragon
March 05 2009, 11:35AM
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Ducey wrote:

Despite the way he has been playing, this might mean a demotion for Reddox. He seems to be the only guy who has a two way contract and doesn’t have to pass thru waivers. I think Poo, JFJ, Nilsson all do right?

Nope. Gregor said on his show yesterday that waivers don't apply for the balance of the season, so any guy can go up or down without having to clear.

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#9 Ender the Dragon
March 05 2009, 11:38AM
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Ender the Dragon wrote:

Ducey wrote: Despite the way he has been playing, this might mean a demotion for Reddox. He seems to be the only guy who has a two way contract and doesn’t have to pass thru waivers. I think Poo, JFJ, Nilsson all do right? Nope. Gregor said on his show yesterday that waivers don’t apply for the balance of the season, so any guy can go up or down without having to clear.

Shoot, wait, that's not what he said [facepalm]. He said that the roster-size was not fixed for the balance of the year, which meant you could carry more guys without having to send anyone down. It worked out to equal the fact that Reddox could stay, but different mechanism.

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#10 Jonathan Willis
March 05 2009, 11:45AM
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Bob Cob wrote:

What were there major needs, more scoring in the top six and deal with Erik Cole’s pending UFA status. Both have been accomplished, Cole is gone, O’Sullivan can score and Kotalik will do the same thing as Stoll did on the power play with his heavy shot, and an improved PP can turn a game...Whats to say Kotalik will leave this year, he is a good friend of Hemsky’s and if there is any kind of chemistry on that top line, maybe he resigns. Bottom line, lets wait and see how this plays out before bitching and complaining about Tambellini not doing enough at the trade deadline.

I didn't think I was bitching and complaining; I said Tambellini had a good not great day. The trade for O'Sullivan was excellent, and on the whole we're coming out ahead, but I'd rather have seen him hang on to that second round pick.

I'm not going to do what some folks do and proclaim every move as great, nor am I going to be unnecessarily pessimistic. I'm going to be honest on every move, and if you don't want an honest evaluation, don't read it.

It's better to be honest than sugar-coat everything.

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#11 Jonathan Willis
March 05 2009, 11:47AM
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Peter Pan wrote:

As for the Kotalik trade, it had to be done. We just can’t have Hemsky playing with Reddox. We just can’t.

Based on Kotalik's even-strength production (don't be misled by his shiny points totals- they're a product of powerplay production), either:

a) Lindy Ruff was grossly misusing him or b) he won't be a fit with Hemsky and Horcoff

Liam Reddox scores more at even strength than Ales Kotalik. That's not a good thing.

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#12 Jason Gregor
March 05 2009, 11:56AM
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Ducey wrote:

Despite the way he has been playing, this might mean a demotion for Reddox. He seems to be the only guy who has a two way contract and doesn’t have to pass thru waivers. I think Poo, JFJ, Nilsson all do right?

Jacques has a two-way contract but still would have to clear waivers. MacIntyre has a two-way as well, but now that the deadline has passed the rosters expand so the Oiler won't have to send anyone down when Moreau returns if they don't want to.Jonathan Willis wrote:

I said Tambellini had a good not great day. The trade for O’Sullivan was excellent, and on the whole we’re coming out ahead, but I’d rather have seen him hang on to that second round pick.

Why keep the 2nd rounder? No guarantee that works out, plus it isn't the Oilers 2nd they gave up. Essentially they got O'Sullivan and Kotalik for Cole and a 5th. If Kotalik doesn't sign, just like Cole wouldn't have, then it is O'Sullivan for a 5th. How can you ask a guy to do better?

The only move he didn't make was a getting a depth D-man, and in order to do that he would have had to move a contract. Makes you wonder that maybe no one had any interest in any of the Oiler spare parts, to trade a veteran #6 or #7 D-man.

But saying he should have kept the 2nd rounder doesn't make much sense, especially when you consider their drafting record of late. And when you take into account that Kotalik and Hemsky are buddies. What if he likes it here and re-signs, then the deal looks even better.

On paper these moves are solid. Now we will see if O'Sullivan pans out.

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#13 Jack "FMNF" Bauer
March 05 2009, 12:03PM
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And whose to say that Kotalik being buddies with Hemsky doesnt turn Kotalik into some sort of scoring animal. Sykora and Hemsky loved playing with each other, and produced well until the politics took over. Time will tell I suppose.

As for the draft pick, if we indeed did flip the Carolina 2nd rounder, that was LA's 2nd rounder, which was Calgary's 2nd rounder. So essentially Buffalo got Calgary's 2nd rounder which will probably end up being 45th-55th overall. BFD

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#14 Mike
March 05 2009, 12:19PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

But saying he should have kept the 2nd rounder doesn’t make much sense, especially when you consider their drafting record of late

From 2002 to 2006 they've drafted JDD, Stoll, Greene, Chorney and Petry in the second round, with a few clear misses (McDonald, Paukovich).

Personally I like the Kotalik pickup, but saying the oilers are poor drafters in the 2nd round isn't true.

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#15 Matt N
March 05 2009, 12:25PM
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@ Gregor:

But saying he should have kept the 2nd rounder doesn’t make much sense, especially when you consider their drafting record of late.

First off I disagree that the Oil have been poor at the draft table. The first round track record isn't great (Poo, JFJ, Schremp) in the Lowe regime but not horrible either (Gagner, Hemsky). However, the value they have been getting from lower round picks is unbeleivable (Stortini, Brodziak, Reddox, Cogliano).

It is also not logical to say that if you draft poorly you might as well give away picks. Drafting a player is like rolling the dice, the more rolls you take, the better chance you have of hitting for a big win. If you roll poorly then you should be taking more rolls to hit the jackpot.

I also disagree with trading future assets (2nd rounder) this year for a short term return (UFA). The Oil will be scratching to make the playoffs, there is no one out there who will bet on them getting past 2 of the top 4 western teams if they do make it.

I understand your overall view of Cole and a 5th for Sully and Kotalik, however, I think you have to evaluate each trade on its own merit.

All that being said, a very good day for the Oil, IMO.

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#16 Maverick
March 05 2009, 12:28PM
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I'm predicting the new guys come in and are excited and rifle a few shots at the net tonight.

To be shortly followed by a MacT warning "we don't shoot the pucks here boys, we block em"

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#17 Chris
March 05 2009, 12:37PM
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@ Jonathan Willis: Hi Willis. Great work yesterday. My question to you is: Why wouldn't O'Sullivan draw right up to the first line? Kotalik replaces Cole...O'Sullivan replaces Reddox. I realize O'Sullivan isn't quite first line material yet... but c'mon ...is Reddox? O'Sullivan likes to shoot. Hemsky likes to pass. Let's give 'em a look. Also, with O'Sullivans PK experience, I'd bet he could help the first line continue with that power vs power thing MacT so loves. I've come to expect the unexpected... (MacT will probably skate O'Sullivan at center move Kotalik to left wing... and then to defence, etc...)

Is my idea out to lunch?

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#18 Peter Pan
March 05 2009, 12:37PM
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In regards to our drafting, who are you guys kidding? Look at the players we missed! Pouliot over Parise/Getzlaf! If Pierre F'N Maguire can see this, why couldn't the Oilers? They traded a 1st and 2nd to move up for PHX's 1st and picked Riley Nash? He doesn't seem to be looking like a gem. Alex Plante sucks ass (4th/5th D-man in WHL!!) And there is more. Sure we had some good picks too, but too many BIG misses. But the worst of all time still has to be when the Oiler fans were chanting "DOAN" only to have the Oilers select Kelly!!!! I know that was a differnt management team and era, but WTF!

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#19 Sean
March 05 2009, 12:38PM
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The other thing is that the Oilers are probably planning on moving a couple of the following Penner, Nilsson, Schremp, JFJ and Pouliot. They may be expecting to get more picks this summer and feel that a roster player who helps in the playoff run is worth more right now. Its short sighted a bit cuz I dont think Kotalik will be the difference between making and not making the playoffs. But competition for roster spots is a good thing.

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#20 Sean
March 05 2009, 12:41PM
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Peter Pan, every team misses. Your being selective in how you base that opinion. Try Gagner, Cogliano, Brodziak, Reddox, Stortini, Hemsky, Stoll, Green. They missed bad in 2003 but otherewise the record is fairly solid compared to the rest of the league. Eberle could also be a hit.

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#21 Peter Pan
March 05 2009, 12:41PM
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Chris wrote:

Is my idea out to lunch?

Yes... As much we all like O'Sullivan joining this team, Hemmer would "most likely" find greater success with another European minded type player, such as Kotalik. Besides, having O'Sullivan on the second compliments that line better than Kotalik would, in my opinion.

Love this site!

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#22 Peter Pan
March 05 2009, 12:45PM
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Sean wrote:

Peter Pan, every team misses. Your being selective in how you base that opinion. Try Gagner, Cogliano, Brodziak, Reddox, Stortini, Hemsky, Stoll, Green. They missed bad in 2003 but otherewise the record is fairly solid compared to the rest of the league. Eberle could also be a hit.

Yeah, I agree. Those were good picks, but have any of those picks turned into cornerstone type players? And please don't say Gagner and his 7 goals. I know he's only 19 and has a good future ahead of him, but is he a player we build around?

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#23 TonyT
March 05 2009, 12:57PM
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Just read Joanne Ireland, on the edmonton journal website that O'Sullivan just got off the plane and is expected to play. Before hitting the ice, they quickly went over systems. 1) The Oilers have systems? From what I've been lead to believe, MacTavish is pretty laisez faire with his offensive players, and according to the Nashville tape they have no defensive systems. Play with jam is not a system. 2) According to Joanne, Kotalik is skating on the top line with Horcoff and Hemsky, while O'Sullivan is skating with Pouliot and Cogliano. Scratches are Reddox, Nilsson, and MacIntyre. That leaves the fourth line as Jacques, Brodziak, and Stortini, and the "second line" as Penner, Gagner, Pisani! Couple questions a) Why is Pisani on the second line? and b) Why do we have the smallest "least amount of jam" checking line in hockey? Just venting - FMNF - Go Oilers!

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#24 slurve
March 05 2009, 01:05PM
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@ Maverick: Maverick wrote:

I’m predicting the new guys come in and are excited and rifle a few shots at the net tonight. To be shortly followed by a MacT warning “we don’t shoot the pucks here boys, we block em”

Followed by teaching them on how to play defensively & don't take chances and constant line changes until somehow Reddox ends up back on the top line again...

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#25 Chris
March 05 2009, 01:07PM
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@ Peter Pan: Kotalik is a poor point producer 5 on 5. (Heck when the Sabers pounded the Oil 10-2, Kotalik managed only two second assists late in the game.) The Oilers website says Kotalik plays either wing but fact is he is more comfortable on the right side. (Didn't Cole also play either wing?) I know O'Sullivan is young, and has played a lesser role behind Frolov with the Kings... But Hemsky is also young....

I guess you never know. Hemsky never did find true chemistry with Sykora, who was a fellow Czech player, but seemed to do okay with Horcoff and Smyth.

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#26 Sean
March 05 2009, 01:07PM
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Peter Pan wrote:

Yeah, I agree. Those were good picks, but have any of those picks turned into cornerstone type players? And please don’t say Gagner and his 7 goals. I know he’s only 19 and has a good future ahead of him, but is he a player we build around?

I think Hemsky is comparable to Parise and good enough to build around. Gagner/Cogs we will see. Unless you tank like Pittsburgh or Chicago you doing well if you get a player like that every 5 years. Your right the Oilers are due for a homerun but the scouting staff is doin fine.

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#27 Jonathan Willis
March 05 2009, 01:10PM
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Peter Pan wrote:

Look at the players we missed! Pouliot over Parise/Getzlaf! If Pierre F’N Maguire can see this, why couldn’t the Oilers?

Pierre also figured that the Canadiens screwed up Big Time! by not taking MONSTER Gilbert Brule with their 5th overall pick.

Seeing as they drafted Carey Price, I wouldn't blindly trust Pierre's take on the Entry Draft.

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#28 Jonathan Willis
March 05 2009, 01:18PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Why keep the 2nd rounder? No guarantee that works out, plus it isn’t the Oilers 2nd they gave up. Essentially they got O’Sullivan and Kotalik for Cole and a 5th. If Kotalik doesn’t sign, just like Cole wouldn’t have, then it is O’Sullivan for a 5th. How can you ask a guy to do better?

View them as separate deals. Evaluated separately, I think that a 2nd round pick has more value than Ales Kotalik.

Jason Gregor wrote:

But saying he should have kept the 2nd rounder doesn’t make much sense, especially when you consider their drafting record of late. And when you take into account that Kotalik and Hemsky are buddies. What if he likes it here and re-signs, then the deal looks even better.

Naturally, I could be wrong here, but I don't think any amount of chemistry with Hemsky is going to change what Kotalik is - a poor scorer five on five. This year, he has 14 even-strength points. Last year he had 19. It also looks like he's never played tough opposition. Basically my theory works like this:

A poor even-strength point producer, who doesn't play tough minutes is unlikely to excel on an offensive line that plays tough minutes. The fact that he's a rental player with an expiring contract is coincidental.

He'll help on the powerplay. I very much doubt that he's the answer to any of the Oilers problems 5 on 5.

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#29 Chris
March 05 2009, 01:23PM
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@ Jonathan Willis: Let's make a deal Willis...If in three years, even one of our THREE 2007 first round picks (Including Gagner) becomes a legitimate first line player (or top pairing defender) I'll admit scouting has been okay. One first line player drafted every ten years is not acceptable! I doubt ANY Oiler, other than Hemsky, drafted under the Lowe/Prendergast era will legitimately play first-line minutes. Floods of mediocre players, carefully developed and managed, result in a perennial 8-10th place team.

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#30 Jonathan Willis
March 05 2009, 01:29PM
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Chris wrote:

Let’s make a deal Willis…If in three years, even one of our THREE 2007 first round picks (Including Gagner) becomes a legitimate first line player (or top pairing defender) I’ll admit scouting has been okay.

And if they don't, I'll admit I've been wrong to defend their drafting.

But I think you're making an awful bet.

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#31 Mike
March 05 2009, 01:35PM
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TonyT wrote:

Just read Joanne Ireland, on the edmonton journal website that O’Sullivan just got off the plane and is expected to play. Before hitting the ice, they quickly went over systems. 1) The Oilers have systems? From what I’ve been lead to believe, MacTavish is pretty laisez faire with his offensive players, and according to the Nashville tape they have no defensive systems. Play with jam is not a system. 2) According to Joanne, Kotalik is skating on the top line with Horcoff and Hemsky, while O’Sullivan is skating with Pouliot and Cogliano. Scratches are Reddox, Nilsson, and MacIntyre. That leaves the fourth line as Jacques, Brodziak, and Stortini, and the “second line” as Penner, Gagner, Pisani! Couple questions a) Why is Pisani on the second line? and b) Why do we have the smallest “least amount of jam” checking line in hockey? Just venting - FMNF - Go Oilers!

Why are you posting that, when Gregor had on his QTNA post with the real lines. I don't understand posting about some other media outlet, when you can just come here and get the facts correctly.

Gagner is with O'Sullivan and Pouliot. Every one knows that. So either you read it wrong or she is out too lunch. Either way, why even mention it when it was mentioned on here by a NATION writer hours earlier...

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#32 Jason Gregor
March 05 2009, 01:45PM
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Matt N wrote:

First off I disagree that the Oil have been poor at the draft table. The first round track record isn’t great (Poo, JFJ, Schremp) in the Lowe regime but not horrible either (Gagner, Hemsky). However, the value they have been getting from lower round picks is unbeleivable (Stortini, Brodziak, Reddox, Cogliano).

Cogliano was a 1st rounder man, not a low pick. Lower picks you mentioned are 4th liner contributors which is fine. Top end drafting needs to improve.

Matt N wrote:

I also disagree with trading future assets (2nd rounder) this year for a short term return (UFA). The Oil will be scratching to make the playoffs, there is no one out there who will bet on them getting past 2 of the top 4 western teams if they do make it.

You are assuming he is only a rental. If he plays okay and scores five goals in this stretch and they can re-sign him for 2.5 million for a few years, what is the problem. A 2nd rounder only is an asset if it works out, and would help this team in three years at the earliest probably.

Jonathan Willis wrote:

View them as separate deals. Evaluated separately, I think that a 2nd round pick has more value than Ales Kotalik.

To say they aren't connected is not true. The minute they start talking with Carolina they are talking with Buffalo simultaneously because they were up against the deadline clock. They convinced Carolina to give a 2nd so they could swap directly to Buffalo.

And how does a what if (2nd rounder) have more value than Kotalik? He is a proven 20 goal scorer, you have no evidence that the 2nd rounder would become that. Proven value is always higher than "potential" unless it is a top-ten pick. Sure sometimes the 2nd pans out, but you would need eight years to see if this second roudn pick can become a three-time 20 goal scorer. And since it wasn't one of their own second-rounders it lessens the blow.

Regardless of who Carolina picks, because the Oilers have shown they won't pick what other teams like, you will never be able to prove if the pick panned out. With Kotalik we will know. And the other intangible is that Hemksy went to bat for him. Make your best player happy and his play could improve. That is a big bonus.

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#33 Sean
March 05 2009, 02:06PM
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but you would need eight years to see if this second roudn pick can become a three-time 20 goal scorer. And since it wasn’t one of their own second-rounders it lessens the blow.

Except he didnt score 20 goals for us, he did that for Buffalo. If we get 20 games out of him, there is a good chance a 2nd rounder does more.

But I agree with you on the package deal part. Sure they are separate transactions but the fact that they both came in at the same time at the last minute leads me to believe Carolina caved in to the Oilers demands for the pick to get Kotalik.

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#34 Jonathan Willis
March 05 2009, 02:07PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

And how does a what if (2nd rounder) have more value than Kotalik? He is a proven 20 goal scorer, you have no evidence that the 2nd rounder would become that. Proven value is always higher than “potential” unless it is a top-ten pick.

Borrowing from Scott Cullen of TSN, the odds of a pick between 51 and 60 playing in at least 100 NHL games is 27%. Jamie Fitzpatrick of About.com puts the success rate (better than 200 games) for a 2nd round pick at 1 in 4.

Speaking for myself, I'll take a one in four chance of a career NHL'er over a power-play specialist who is about to become an unrestricted free agent.

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#35 Sean
March 05 2009, 02:09PM
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JW when did you start posting at coppernblue again? Are you posting there regularly again in addition to the ON posts?

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#36 TonyT
March 05 2009, 02:15PM
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Mike wrote:

TonyT wrote: Just read Joanne Ireland, on the edmonton journal website that O’Sullivan just got off the plane and is expected to play. Before hitting the ice, they quickly went over systems. 1) The Oilers have systems? From what I’ve been lead to believe, MacTavish is pretty laisez faire with his offensive players, and according to the Nashville tape they have no defensive systems. Play with jam is not a system. 2) According to Joanne, Kotalik is skating on the top line with Horcoff and Hemsky, while O’Sullivan is skating with Pouliot and Cogliano. Scratches are Reddox, Nilsson, and MacIntyre. That leaves the fourth line as Jacques, Brodziak, and Stortini, and the “second line” as Penner, Gagner, Pisani! Couple questions a) Why is Pisani on the second line? and b) Why do we have the smallest “least amount of jam” checking line in hockey? Just venting - FMNF - Go Oilers! Why are you posting that, when Gregor had on his QTNA post with the real lines. I don’t understand posting about some other media outlet, when you can just come here and get the facts correctly. Gagner is with O’Sullivan and Pouliot. Every one knows that. So either you read it wrong or she is out too lunch. Either way, why even mention it when it was mentioned on here by a NATION writer hours earlier…

Sorry, I don't believe I saw Gregor post the lines in that particular article. Also, I don't consider the Edmonton Journal ficticious. Lastly, the lines I mentiouned were the lines practiced during this morning's practice, it's MacT, is it so hard to believe? All I'm saying is MacT wanted more offense when not only does he find a way to make the top two scoring lines un-offensive but he's found a way to make the checking line un-checking. I'm cheering for the Oilers, but unless MacT leads them to the finals I wanna written guarantee from mgmt that MacT's done.

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#37 TonyT
March 05 2009, 02:18PM
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@ Mike: Also, Oiler fans come on here to talk shop. If we all got our info from Oilersnation there wouldn't much to discuss. So unless your source is Ecklund or the Ottawa Sun, I believe it's reasonable to post such a source for the discussion, of all.

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#38 Jack "FMNF" Bauer
March 05 2009, 02:39PM
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@ Jonathan Willis:

It should be noted that Buffalo got the 2nd round pick that we got from Carolina/LA/Calgary. Buffalo gave that exact pick to Toronto in the Dominic Moore trade. So essentially Toronto ended up with the pick that came through us.

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#39 Peter Pan
March 05 2009, 02:44PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Peter Pan wrote: Look at the players we missed! Pouliot over Parise/Getzlaf! If Pierre F’N Maguire can see this, why couldn’t the Oilers? Pierre also figured that the Canadiens screwed up Big Time! by not taking MONSTER Gilbert Brule with their 5th overall pick. Seeing as they drafted Carey Price, I wouldn’t blindly trust Pierre’s take on the Entry Draft.

HAHA! True...

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#40 TonyT
March 05 2009, 03:24PM
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@ Jason Gregor: In your opinion do the Oilers put to much stock in leadership and personal background on draft day? Or in other words has their priority on these areas affected their drafting over talent (with the exception of Schremp who was a late, best available pick)?

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#41 Dennis
March 05 2009, 04:15PM
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I really like the Cole/O'Sullivan move but I would've rather had a D than move that 2nd for yet another forward. 24 is playing in the top four and he can't handle it and 44's showing up lagging as well. What we needed was a Havelid type instead of having 26 forwards and 24 in your top four D and Peckham and Roy as your 7th and 8th Dmen.

Regarding signing Kotalik for 2.5 mill, the Oilers have to be really careful with giving real money to guys who won't make a difference. Right now we've got guys like 18 and 34 with contracts that they can't out-perform and I wouldn't want Kotalik to grab the same kind of deal.

I imagine 27 will be dealt at the draft or at the very least waived early next year so I guess that will change how we pay guys expected to score. But as JW showed, Kotalik hasn't really been a guy that you can count on. One 60 point season clouds what looks to be a ~40 points-a-season career.

That's OK if he'll come back on a bargain but that's it.

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#42 King Mob
March 05 2009, 04:27PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Speaking for myself, I’ll take a one in four chance of a career NHL’er over a power-play specialist who is about to become an unrestricted free agent.

agree to disagree. and as mentioned previously, one important thing we have to keep in mind is that this isn't the Oiler's 2nd rounder. Supply and demand. The more 2nd round picks we have, the less value we can afford to put on each individual one. I might not agree with forgoeing the second round altogether in 2009 for a rental, but if we have an extra and our scouts aren't over the moon about picks 31-60, I say go for it.

That being said, I certainly see where you're coming from. Also, Gregor brought up a great point about keeping hemsky happy, which I hadn't thought of until now. There's a lot more X factors in this than meets the eye.

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#43 Jonathan Willis
March 06 2009, 08:16AM
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Sean wrote:

JW when did you start posting at coppernblue again? Are you posting there regularly again in addition to the ON posts?

Just this last week. I'm in trade school right now, and I have a bunch of extra time.

Besides, I never really wanted to shut it down, but I couldn't keep up both there and at ON. I'm going to try and keep it alive from here on out.

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