March 05 2009 01:04PM
Some of you may remember that back in November, Eklund put out a list of 25 players most likely to be traded (the list actually had 29 players on it, but whatever). His list was allegedly founded on insider information, as with all of his trade rumours. I’ve long since thought that Eklund’s “insider information” was nonsense, something that HockeyBuzz HogWash (check it out) makes totally clear.
Anyhow, I decided to put together a list of names from my inside information – you know, newspaper reports, my brain, coin flipping, etc. – to see which of us could be the most accurate. Just to add some flavor to the debate, I added Oren Koules to the contest; I figured it was entirely possible that the Tampa Bay Lightning would trade more players than Eklund or I guessed correctly. Let’s review the results, starting with Eklund.
1. Marian Gaborik – not traded 2. Jay Bouwmeester – not traded 3. Ilya Kovalchuk – not traded 4. Nik Antropov - Traded 5. Keith Tkachuk – not traded 6. Brian Gionta – not traded 7. Andy McDonald – not traded 8. Erik Cole - Traded 9. Marc Savard – not traded 10. Bill Guerin - Traded 11. John Madden – not traded 12. Jere Lehtinen – not traded 13. Martin Havlat – not traded 14. Brandon Dubinsky – not traded 15. Richard Zednik – not traded 16. Mike Modano – not traded 17. Mattias Ohlund – not traded 18. Cory Murphy - Waived 19. Derek Morris - Traded 20. Greg de Vries – not traded 21. Mathieu Schneider - Traded 22. Tuomo Ruutu – not traded 23. Petr Prucha - Traded 24. Alexander Radulov – not traded
Turns out there were actually only 24 names – Eklund counted wrong. Plus, of course, his goaltender list:
1. Nikolai Khabibulin – not traded 2. Kari Lehtonen – not traded 3. Dwayne Roloson – not traded 4. Manny Fernandez – not traded
Out of 28 names, Eklund correctly guessed 6 trades and 1 player waived. Giving him a half point for Cory Murphy being claimed on waivers, that’s 6.5/28 = 23.2% Accuracy Rating
1. Chris Kunitz - Traded 2. Bobby ryan – not traded 3. Jason Williams - Traded 4. Ondrej Pavelec – not traded 5. Adrian Aucoin – not traded 6. Frantisek Kaberle - Waived 7. Nikolai Khabibulin – not traded 8. Brett Clark – not traded 9. Mathieu Garon - Traded 10. Dwayne Roloson – not traded 11. Rob Schremp – not traded 12. Zach Stortini – not traded 13. Jay Bouwmeester – not traded 14. Sean O’Donnell – not traded 15. Marian Gaborik – not traded 16. Benoit Pouliot – not traded 17. Martin Skoula – not traded 18. Jaroslav Halak – not traded 19. Mike Comrie - Traded 20. Dmitri Kalinin - Traded 21. Antoine Vermette - Traded 22. Mike Knuble – not traded 23. Keith Tkachuk – not traded 24. Chris Gratton - Waived 25. Jussi Jokinen - Traded 26. Gary Roberts - Waived 27. Carlo Coaliacovo - Traded 28. Alexei Ponikarovsky – not traded 29. Taylor Pyatt – not traded
Out of 29 names (sorry, I thought Eklund counted correctly) I correctly named 8 players traded and 3 players waived. Giving a half-point for waived players, I got 9.5/29 = 32.8% Accuracy Rating
On the other hand, had I just guessed “every member of the Tampa Bay Lightning”, (also known as Koules list) I would have got the following:
1. Mark Recchi – traded 2. Steve Eminger – traded 3. Jussi Jokinen – traded 4. Gary Roberts – waived 5. Radim Vrbata – waived 6. Matt Carle – traded 7. Jamie Heward – traded 8. Chris Gratton – waived 9. Olaf Kolzig – traded 10. Wyatt Smith – traded 11. Andrew Hutchinson – traded
The Lightning have used 44 players this season – meaning that since November, they have traded or waived 25% of their roster. Using the same accuracy rating formula as above (1 point for a trade, .5 points for waiving) that gives the Lightning a score of 9.5/44 = 21.6% Accuracy Rating
We came from many places. One of us was an NHL owner, largely derided as the head of a joke organization. One of us owns an NHL rumour site, largely derided as a liar, charlatan and fraud. One of us is a blogger for OilersNation, largely derided as a pajama-clad, parents-basement-living amateur. The results:
Willis: 32.8% Accurate Eklund: 23.2% Accurate Koules: 21.6% Moved
We can come to a few conclusions from this. First, that an observer with decent knowledge (me) can put up a list of trades and expect to be right about a third of the time. Second, that Eklund is (and has always been) a liar and a fraud. Thirdly, we can also say that Tampa Bay is one of the worst organizations in the NHL (seriously – who changes over a quarter of their roster in 3-1/2 months during the season?).
Don’t waste your time with Eklund.