A Quick Dustin Penner Question

Jonathan Willis
March 09 2009 01:46PM

Dustin Penner

There are a lot of people out there who don’t like Dustin Penner. “Lazy” is a word that gets tossed around a lot, although “inconsistent” “unmotivated” and even “fat” get used sometimes too. I decided I’d take a quick look at how the first line of Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff have performed this season with and without Dustin Penner.

I decided to use Vic Ferrari’s Time On Ice tool, which scans NHL shift charts, to compile the results for the first line with and without Dustin Penner.

With Dustin Penner

  • 21 goals for, 5 goals against (+16)
  • 173 shots for, 109 shots against (+64)

Without Dustin Penner

  • 9 goals for, 10 goals against (-1)
  • 281 shots for, 250 shots against (+31)

I really didn’t like the Dustin Penner offer sheet; I place great value on draft picks, and felt that Penner was too much of a question mark for such a big offer. That said, I do think that Penner’s a useful NHL player who has been made the scapegoat far too much on a team with multiple problems.

My question for those of you who don’t like Dustin Penner: Why is the first line so much better with Penner than without him?

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#1 Q
March 09 2009, 01:49PM
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Thanks for this Jonathan. I am beating my head against the wall trying to get people to stop getting a skill player to fit into an Ethan Moreau mold. I mean, I think people want him to be Moreau, when he's more Cogliano (without the speed). This guys just thinks the game too well to not be good.

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#2 Wanye Gretz
March 09 2009, 02:02PM
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I think that Penner isn't that bad either. He has become the poster boy for legions of fans who are pissed off with mediocre results.

As Oilers fans we always need whipping boys. Always. Don't we Tom Poti?

*Poti nods, silent tears streaming down his face while he eats an unseasoned chicken breast*

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#3 Monday Guy
March 09 2009, 02:02PM
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Numbers Schmumbers I want Results

tell him to put the puck in the net .... only then can we be pals again

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#4 Pinto
March 09 2009, 02:04PM
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Maybe with a coaching change, he will have a bit of a fresh start. Here's to hoping there is a coaching change!!!!!

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#5 The Towel Boy
March 09 2009, 02:06PM
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What's the median error correction analytic devicerfier number?

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#6 CurtisS
March 09 2009, 02:06PM
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You beat me to it. I was just going to see what the results are. I hated the offer sheet as well but he hasnt nearly been as bad as what people think he has.

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#7 Jonathan Willis
March 09 2009, 02:06PM
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Monday Guy wrote:

Numbers Schmumbers I want Results tell him to put the puck in the net …. only then can we be pals again

16 goals for, 5 against. 9 goals for, 10 against.

Penner was putting the puck in the net.

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#8 Jonathan Willis
March 09 2009, 02:07PM
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Anybody want to give me the odds that I get a legitimate answer to that question?

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#9 Didsdave
March 09 2009, 02:10PM
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I've noticed that in past games if Penner gets hit hard early in a period he seems to play with more drive. Much like another #27 who played for the make beleafs a long time ago. Maybe the Oilers defense should wake him up at the start of each period.

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#10 CurtisS
March 09 2009, 02:10PM
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@ Jonathan Willis:

1 in 1000000000000000000000000000

Anyways Fire Mact!

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#11 Thenosebleedsection.
March 09 2009, 02:11PM
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Dont get me wrong, his numbers with the top line compared to without are really wide. My biggest beef with Penner is there are times during a game or a full game where it just seems he isnt "checked in". Just skates around with no life.

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#12 Harlie Chuddy
March 09 2009, 02:12PM
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His numbers show that he has decent chemistry on the 1st line. If you look at his numbers, his age, his size then his contract actually looks somewhat decent.

The problem I have with him is probably more perception than anything. Penner doesn't bring a physical element most nights, he coasts back to our zone when he backchecks, he coughs up the puck at bad times and overall he looks slow and disinterested most of the time.

I do have to give him props though. He puts up decent numbers so effortlessly that it looks like a 35 year old couch potato like me could do what he does.

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#13 The Towel Boy
March 09 2009, 02:12PM
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JW: are these numbers for all ice time where the three are together? PP/EV? Just curious... And...these numbers are just from this season?

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#14 Mike
March 09 2009, 02:12PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Anybody want to give me the odds that I get a legitimate answer to that question?

Well, it's possible to dislike Dustin Penner while still admitting that he's the best option at LW that this team has right now.

I wish he came out with something to prove more often, but even at half effort he's more use on the ice than stapled to the bench.

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#15 smytty777
March 09 2009, 02:13PM
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The reason the first line is better with him is that there are no better options. Nilsson, Cole, Moreau, Reddox? All worse options.

That doesn't make Penner a first line winger, it makes him the best option as first line left wing. By the way I think Penner would be a solid, if slightly overpaid, second line left wing if the Oilers had a legit first line left wing.

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#16 Jonathan Willis
March 09 2009, 02:14PM
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The Towel Boy wrote:

JW: are these numbers for all ice time where the three are together? PP/EV? Just curious… And…these numbers are just from this season?

Just even strength, just this season.

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#17 CurtisS
March 09 2009, 02:15PM
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@ Thenosebleedsection.: The same can be said with every player in this lineup at somepoint during a game or a stretch over the season

Agreeded?

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#18 Ryan
March 09 2009, 02:16PM
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Great post. I have been arguing on David Staples' blog for a while that Penner is being mishandled and makes the 1st line tick. He is better defensively than Hemmer (and probably Horcs), and he creates the room they need to score. Look at Pisai's goal against the Leafs - if Penner did not drive the net and take the D-Men with him then the chance does not happen. How many of Hemsky's goals this season were due to the same thing?

Our PP is horrible right now without him since there is no screen in front of the net AND the D-Man who would normally have to fight with him in front of the tender is now free to be in the play.

It is obvious by now that MacTool is just grasping at straws and the team has quit playing for him. If not for a hot goalie, we would have lost to the Leafs as well.

Here is my speculation on the current state of affairs:

MacT and KLowe have not been seeing eye to eye regarding personnel and line combos behind the scenes all season. MacT likes to overplay his 3rd and 4th liners (Reddox on the 1st line - WTF is he smoking) AND veterans (Staios and Strudwick ahead of Smid - WTF again), while KLowe knows the young skill guys need to play more to develop. However, the only way to see who is right is to let MacT call the shots as he sees fit and sink or swim with the results.

Right now it looks like MacT has lost the team, so hopefully he will be gone as the coach during the first week of the offseason.

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#19 Jonathan Willis
March 09 2009, 02:18PM
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Mike wrote:

Well, it’s possible to dislike Dustin Penner while still admitting that he’s the best option at LW that this team has right now.

I really like that answer; I might even have offered it in response to this question.

I don't like that he's getting repeatedly scratched, and I don't like that he's getting shuffled around the lineup, and I don't like that he's constantly having shots taken at him by some of the local media.

He isn't the problem - he isn't worth the money, IMO, but he isn't the problem. He's a way better option than Reddox, Moreau, or Nilsson, and I dare say that he's a better option than Kotalik.

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#20 HemmersaJemmer
March 09 2009, 02:25PM
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Here is your answer:

First point: Just because the line is better while playing with Penner, doesn't mean that the line is considered a number one line. Having only 21 goals while he is their just is not good enough for a first line. Whether or not that is Penners fault remains to be seen.

Second point: You fail to recognize who was on that top line without Penner. It is players like Reddox or Nilsson filling that hole. Penner was a better fit on the first and is a much better player this year than Nilsson or Reddox. (He should be he's getting paid 4.25M/year) The line sucked when Penner left not because Penner was just THAT good, but because Nilsson and Reddox are just THAT bad.

Still, I have no problem using Penner on the first line LW if he can continue those types of numbers. He is doing fine on even strength. It is his special teams that have been terrible this year.

First point: Penner doesn't play the PK. If he does he is one of the worst penalty killers on the ice.

Second point: Penner has the 3rd most icetime out of any forward on the PP yet only has 7PP points. Thats not even good enough to be on the 2nd line PP.

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#21 Duncan
March 09 2009, 02:26PM
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Great post Jonathan. i agree whole heartedly. Penner, while often seeming disinterested and "lazy" has by far been the most effective player to share a line with 10-83. not to mention that without him they clearly struggle to produce at even strength. And let's not even talk about how much better the PP is when he is on the ice (overall the PP sucks, but it's at it's best when 27 stands in front of the net).

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#22 Cal71
March 09 2009, 02:27PM
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It's not that I don't like Penner. I think he has use as an NHL player. I've gotten over the fact that he's a non-physical big guy. It's just not his game, even though he has the size for it. He thinks the game pretty good and he's got good hands for a big guy. I just have huge problems with his effort. Its just not there on a consistent basis and latley its not there at all. It's not hard at all for opposing players to knock him off the puck. Physical player or not, it should not be that easy for a 5'10" 180 lbs. player to knock a 6'4" 240 lbs. player off the puck. Now I can't argue the numbers that Willis has. I'm not sure why the first line is so much better with him on it. Maybe it is because he thinks the game well and he has good positioning. It certainly isn't from effort. There's no urgency or drive or motivation in his game. If there is one thing that gets my blood boiling its players who don't compete. He doesn't have to run around like a fourth liner fighting for his job, but a little effort and drive would be nice. Saying that, I wonder if things would be different for him if he was playing for a different coach.

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#23 Jonathan Willis
March 09 2009, 02:30PM
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HemmersaJemmer wrote:

I have no problem using Penner on the first line LW if he can continue those types of numbers. He is doing fine on even strength. It is his special teams that have been terrible this year.

BING-BING-BING-BING!

Penner has struggled to put up points on the powerplay. The funny thing is, the Oilers powerplay scores more (relative to ice-time) with Dustin Penner on it than it does with any other forward.

I'd suggest that Penner's powerplay contribution is being underrepresented by his points totals; lots of times he screens a shot and doesn't get credited with a point even though he was involved.

Still, it's a fair point - but Dustin Penner is far better at even-strength this season than he was last season.

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#24 Mike
March 09 2009, 02:30PM
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HemmersaJemmer wrote:

Second point: Penner has the 3rd most icetime out of any forward on the PP yet only has 7PP points. Thats not even good enough to be on the 2nd line PP.

That's because the NHL doesn't award points for screening the goalie with your fat ass. Points don't reflect his true contribution.

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#25 CurtisS
March 09 2009, 02:31PM
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Jonathon since you a numbers guy.

Any way we can find out what our PP clicks at with Penner on the ice as compared to what our PP clicks at with out Penner.

In watching all season even though Penner isnt getting points when he is in front of the net "Smytty Style" our pp is more sucessful. I just dont have stats to back it up.

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#26 Jonathan Willis
March 09 2009, 02:32PM
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HemmersaJemmer wrote:

You fail to recognize who was on that top line without Penner. It is players like Reddox or Nilsson filling that hole. Penner was a better fit on the first and is a much better player this year than Nilsson or Reddox. (He should be he’s getting paid 4.25M/year) The line sucked when Penner left not because Penner was just THAT good, but because Nilsson and Reddox are just THAT bad.

This is a really good point too - but when it's raised, the logical next question is "If Penner is the best option on the team for that spot, is it good for the team to have him on the 4th line or scratched?"

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#27 Nitpick guy
March 09 2009, 02:32PM
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Well, Grebs was playing too well to be this seasons goat so I suppose Penner had to do instead.

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#28 Ender the Dragon
March 09 2009, 02:33PM
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smytty777 wrote:

The reason the first line is better with him is that there are no better options. Nilsson, Cole, Moreau, Reddox? All worse options. That doesn’t make Penner a first line winger, it makes him the best option as first line left wing.

True that. With Sully on the top line, Penner (when he skates like he cares) and Kotalik might be 2/3 of a pretty good second line.

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#29 DBO
March 09 2009, 02:35PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

This is a really good point too - but when it’s raised, the logical next question is “If Penner is the best option on the team for that spot, is it good for the team to have him on the 4th line or scratched?”

exactly! That is the most frustrating thing about MacT. He seems to play his favorites, and unfortunately he seems to have made his decision on Nilsson and Penner. Neither of those players will play hard for him, why should they when if they do Ok in a game and the rest of the team does as poorly they are the ones singled out. You win and lose as a team. I think Mact has forgotten this.

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#30 Jonathan Willis
March 09 2009, 02:37PM
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@ CurtisS:

Behind the Net does this - it measures goals for (relative to ice time) for each Oilers player. The link is here, but it's a little complicated so I'll just print the list:

Goals For On Per 60

Penner: 6.61 Nilsson: 6.57 Kotalik: 6.12 Gagner: 5.93 Hemsky: 5.89 Cogliano: 5.82 Cole: 5.45 Horcoff: 5.35 O'Sullivan: 5.03

Obviously, we can't just take those numbers on faith (Hemsky is almost certainly the best PP option the Oilers have), but they do tell us something about Penner's production that his point totals don't.

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#31 HemmersaJemmer
March 09 2009, 02:38PM
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@ Jonathan Willis:

The problem with this type of thinking is that you are rewarding Dustin Penner for basically just standing in front of the net. Still, he continually fails to actually battle in front of the net for loose pucks or go and retreive the puck after Souray and Visnovsky continuosly miss the net.

As for the PP clicking while he is on the ice its really hard to get an accurate reading of how valuable his big body is in front of the net. After all, the PP should be clicking while he is out their since Hemsky is out their with him.

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#32 mjsh
March 09 2009, 02:38PM
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I believe the numbers are valid and all other info that I have seen on this site and lowetide suggest that Penner is a valuable asset. The issue most of us have it that he appears to have much more to give than he does give. I am reminded of the critism that was sent at the big M when he was in Toronto many years ago.

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#33 Archaeologuy
March 09 2009, 02:39PM
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Wanye Gretz wrote:

As Oilers fans we always need whipping boys. Always. Don’t we Tom Poti? *Poti nods, silent tears streaming down his face while he eats an unseasoned chicken breast*

Tom Poti deserved every bit of crap he took from the fans. He was Grebeshkov of fall '07 minus the ability to get better defensively.

In fact, the Highlight of my hockey viewing season the year Poti was traded was starting the trade Poti chant in the American National anthem.

Poti for York, York for Peca, Peca to the Cup final.

You're welcome Edmonton. You're welcome.

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#34 CurtisS
March 09 2009, 02:41PM
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@ Jonathan Willis: Thanks, I knew them I was just wondering what the teams PP % is with Penner on the ice rather than PP % without Penner.

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#35 Jonathan Willis
March 09 2009, 02:41PM
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@ HemmersaJemmer:

Believe me, I'm not a fan of things I see in Penner's game. I'm really not. I am, however, a fan of using the best options for each role, and I think that Dustin Penner is undeniably the best option on this team for first line LW (with the possible exception of the newly acquired O'Sullivan).

His powerplay contribution has not been all that it should be (the unit's success with him notwithstanding). But that's a reason to curtail his powerplay minutes, not scratch him or stick him with Stortini and Brodziak 5-on-5.

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#36 Jonathan Willis
March 09 2009, 02:44PM
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CurtisS wrote:

Thanks, I knew them I was just wondering what the teams PP % is with Penner on the ice rather than PP % without Penner.

Gotcha. Unfortunately, I don't know the answer to that one. Behind the Net does list GFOFF/60 as well, though, so we can see how many goals the powerplay scores (again, relative to icetime) without Penner.

With Penner: 6.61 GF/60 Without Penner: 5.45 GF/60

In other words, over the course of an hour of powerplay time, they score more than one goal more with Penner than without him.

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#37 callighenfan
March 09 2009, 02:44PM
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Would factoring in for Visnovsky's absence alter the statistical balance in any way?

I'm pro-Penner; just curious.

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#38 CurtisS
March 09 2009, 02:44PM
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HemmersaJemmer wrote:

@ Jonathan Willis: The problem with this type of thinking is that you are rewarding Dustin Penner for basically just standing in front of the net. Still, he continually fails to actually battle in front of the net for loose pucks or go and retreive the puck after Souray and Visnovsky continuosly miss the net. As for the PP clicking while he is on the ice its really hard to get an accurate reading of how valuable his big body is in front of the net. After all, the PP should be clicking while he is out their since Hemsky is out their with him.

Your first quote. The downlow person goes to retrieve the puck after it misses the net. More on the first part. When Souray or Lubo do hit the net its usually in leaving no rebounds for Penner to hit home.

If you dont think our PP connects as much with Penner infront of the net vs him not there.

WATCH THE GAMES!

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#39 Jonathan Willis
March 09 2009, 02:46PM
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@ HemmersaJemmer:

Or, to phrase it differently, while I think that Kevin Lowe absolutely deserves some roasting for the Penner offer sheet, that doesn't excuse MacTavish for not using Penner properly.

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#40 HemmersaJemmer
March 09 2009, 02:48PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

@ HemmersaJemmer: I think that Dustin Penner is undeniably the best option on this team for first line LW (with the possible exception of the newly acquired O’Sullivan). His powerplay contribution has not been all that it should be (the unit’s success with him notwithstanding). But that’s a reason to curtail his powerplay minutes, not scratch him or stick him with Stortini and Brodziak 5-on-5.

If you had to rank the players that played with Horcoff and Hemsky this season Penner was the best option. Reddox, Nilsson and Cole were just terrible. But like you said, we acquired O'Sullivan and Kotalik at the trade deadline. If they weren't here I would be all for keeping Penner on the first line as he was the best option.

You have to ask yourself now that with Penner not on the top line, where does he fit? It now becomes a question about how well he plays with other players (not Hemsky and Horcoff). The reason he is scratched is because his style of game just doesn't seem to mesh well with anyone else on the team.

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#41 HemmersaJemmer
March 09 2009, 02:52PM
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CurtisS wrote:

Your first quote. The downlow person goes to retrieve the puck after it misses the net. More on the first part. When Souray or Lubo do hit the net its usually in leaving no rebounds for Penner to hit home. If you dont think our PP connects as much with Penner infront of the net vs him not there. WATCH THE GAMES!

Lol, I always love the watch the games comments. I do watch the games. It is nice to see Penner stand in front of the net because the Oilers are a better team when Penner is motivated and on the PP. Still, when he isn't motivated he constantly losses battles in front of the net or is just too slow in order to race for the rebounds. Im not saying that he isn't the best option. He is. He just isn't nearly as good as he was last year on the PP when he actually gave a damn and battled.

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#42 DBO
March 09 2009, 02:54PM
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@ HemmersaJemmer: I think penner's style actually fits with gagner. Not sure how they've done together stats wise, but penner is more of a perimiter player, and has good hands. he is a better passer then I would have thought, and plays the game at the same foot speed as Gagner. i would like to see penner with gagner and O'Sullivan and see what can happen. Playing Pouliot on that line is killing me. pouliot will never win you a game, but he also won't lose it (a MacT special). If you are going to repeatedly give Gagner a pass based on his play, then extend the same courtesy to Penner. Hell, put them on the same line and let them sink or swim togther. Especially if you plan on bringing in a 1LW next year, let O'Sullivan - Gagner - Penner run the rest of the year and see if they can develop some chemistry.

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#43 Blog log
March 09 2009, 02:55PM
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Not sure if anyone has mentioned it, but the Oilers' website is reporting that Penner will likely be scratched tomorrow with Nilsson dressing in his stead.

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#44 Jonathan Willis
March 09 2009, 02:57PM
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HemmersaJemmer wrote:

But like you said, we acquired O’Sullivan and Kotalik at the trade deadline. If they weren’t here I would be all for keeping Penner on the first line as he was the best option. You have to ask yourself now that with Penner not on the top line, where does he fit? It now becomes a question about how well he plays with other players (not Hemsky and Horcoff). The reason he is scratched is because his style of game just doesn’t seem to mesh well with anyone else on the team.

That's a fair point, although I haven't seen anything in Kotalik's history that indicates he's a first line option. As for O'Sullivan, if Penner is left with Horcoff and Hemsky, isn't he a great option as a shooter for Gagner?

That's just how I would manage the roster.

Other than that, if you want to try Kotalik/O'Sullivan with Horcoff/Hemsky, why not put Penner on the wing with Gagner? IIRC, he's been a fit there before.

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#45 Jonathan Willis
March 09 2009, 02:59PM
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callighenfan wrote:

Would factoring in for Visnovsky’s absence alter the statistical balance in any way? I’m pro-Penner; just curious.

It's significant; I'm not sure how to get Time On Ice to allow for four players, so I ran it again with Hemsky, Penner and Visnovsky and then just Hemsky and Penner. It's something like 9GF/1GA in the first case and 13GF/9GA in the second. The shots totals aren't nearly as dramatic though.

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#46 Mr DeBakey
March 09 2009, 02:59PM
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Having only 21 goals while he is their just is not good enough for a first line.

How many ES goals should a 1st line have?

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#47 BUCK75 - FMNF
March 09 2009, 03:02PM
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Dustin Penner would probably play better under Guy Carboneau.

Well looky here he was just fired after winning a game yesterday...

FMNF!!!!

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#48 DBO
March 09 2009, 03:04PM
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TSN reporting that Carbonneau fired. If they can fire Carbonneau with a better record and a ton of injuries, why can't we fire MacT?

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#49 Jonathan Willis
March 09 2009, 03:05PM
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@ BUCK75 - FMNF:

I think I prefer Renney, although I haven't looked into it all that much.

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#50 CurtisS
March 09 2009, 03:12PM
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@ DBO: Huge news

THem Canadians remind us of anyone?

A team that is underachieving? Questions of the coach doing its job correctly?

Hmmm

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