Patrick O’Sullivan: Better Than You Think He Is

Jonathan Willis
April 21 2009 10:40AM

O'Sullivan

The trade deadline move that sent Erik Cole and a fifth round pick to Carolina in exchange for Patrick O’Sullivan and a second round pick was roundly praised in the media (and by me). It was more than a little disappointing when O’Sullivan didn’t bring the same form to Edmonton that he had in Los Angeles.

The basic numbers show us a startling drop-off:

  • Los Angeles: 62GP – 14G – 23A – 37PTS, +1
  • Edmonton: 19GP – 2G – 4A – 6PTS, -7

On the other hand, I really don’t think that O’Sullivan’s counting numbers are fully reflective of his play, for a couple of different reasons. The first item is shooting percentage. Players get hot and cold, but generally they revert back to their career shooting percentage after a while. Here are O’Sullivan’s numbers over his career:

  • 2006-07: 44GP – 5.4 SH%
  • 2007-08: 82GP – 10.0 SH%
  • 2008-09 (LA): 62GP – 7.0 SH%
  • 2008-09 (EDM): 19GP – 3.4 SH%
  • Career: 207GP – 7.5 SH%

In Edmonton, Patrick O’Sullivan’s shooting percentage was less than half of what it was in L.A., 45% of his career number, and one third of his total from last season. Even if we were to imagine that he converted at the same rate he did in L.A., he would have scored twice as many goals.

The second item is on-ice shooting percentage. The first item looked at O’Sullivan alone, whereas this measures the shooting percentage of all of O’Sullivan’s line-mates when he was on the ice. Let’s do some comparisons (all numbers at even-strength):

  • O’Sullivan in Edmonton: 5.1 On-Ice SH%
  • O’Sullivan in Los Angeles: 7.5 On-Ice SH%
  • Edmonton Team Average: 8.8 On-Ice SH%
  • Worst Edmonton Number (Steve MacIntyre): 5.9 On-Ice SH%

I think it’s pretty clear that O’Sullivan’s number in this category is largely a result of luck. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that better players help the play stay alive and thus help generate better chances for their line-mates, thus bringing up their on-ice shooting percentage, but for O’Sullivan’s number to be so low is farcical. His numbers are below a) his average in Los Angeles, b) the Oilers’ team average (and I think it’s fair to say that O’Sullivan is an above-average offensive player) and c) Steve MacIntyre’s team-worst 5.9 on-ice SH%. The Oilers took 156 shots at even-strength with O’Sullivan on the ice. If we were to bump O’Sullivan’s numbers up to his performance in Los Angeles, it would mean that he was on the ice for 4 more goals for at even-strength. If we were to bump that number up to the Oiler’s team average (since on-ice shooting percentage is 80% a result of line-mates anyway), that would mean O’Sullivan was on for 6 more goals for. Not only would that likely inflate his assists totals, but it would almost erase his -7 rating.

The third item is on-ice save percentage. Vic Ferrari conclusively showed that this is completely independent of the quality of an individual defending forward; rather, it’s affected by quality of opposition, quality of goaltender, and to a large degree by random variance. In other words, whatever the save percentage was behind Patrick O’Sullivan, we can be relatively certain that it wasn’t of his doing. Did that have any effect on his plus/minus (all numbers again at even-strength)?

  • Patrick O’Sullivan’s On-Ice Save Percentage: .913
  • Edmonton Oilers’ Team Average Save Percentage: .925

Patrick O’Sullivan was on the ice for 173 shots against at even-strength. 15 goals were scored against while he was on the ice; if we were to adjust his on-ice save percentage to the team average, it would only be 13 goals against.

The combination of these three effects to reduce O’Sullivan’s counting numbers is incredible. If we compensate for all of these factors (and assume that he would have continued to post assists at the same rate for projected goals) the difference is stark:

  • Actual: 19GP – 2G – 4A – 6PTS, -7
  • Projected: 19GP – 4G – 7A – 11PTS, +1

That’s nearly double the output and an 8-goal swing. This isn’t to say that we should discard O’Sullivan’s actual performance; every player has hot streaks and cold streaks and over the course of the season these things tend to even out. The problem is with small sample sizes; when we start to break the season down into 20-game chunks, we can get a distorted picture because very few players produce four identical 20-game segments. Sometimes, the bounces go their way and they produce better results than are reasonably sustainable. In Patrick O’Sullivan’s case, his results (as compared to his actual play) were unreasonably low; over the course of a season they would certainly have been better. The lesson is not to underrate him based on the 20 games that closed out the season.

74b7cedc5d8bfbe88cf071309e98d2c3
Jonathan Willis is Managing Editor of the Nation Network. He also currently writes for the Edmonton Journal's Cult of Hockey, Grantland, and Hockey Prospectus. His work has appeared at theScore, ESPN and Puck Daddy. He was previously founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue. Contact him at jonathan (dot) willis (at) live (dot) ca.
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#101 misfit
April 21 2009, 08:44PM
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What I can't stop wondering is, if Carolina was willing to give up Williams and a 2nd round pick to get Cole back, why didn't we just trade him for Williams and a 2nd.

I like the trade, and I like O'Sullivan. Just not as much as I like Williams.

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#102 Archaeologuy
April 21 2009, 08:46PM
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Chris wrote:

The majority of people on this site wouldn’t trade Hemsky for LeCavlier and so on…

Did you know that Lecavalier only scored 1 more point than Hemmer but played 9 more games. And that's with Marty St.Louis on his wing. Just saying.

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#103 Archaeologuy
April 21 2009, 08:52PM
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@ Archaeologuy: And Lecavalier hasnt exactly lead his team to the promised land since Khabibulin left the team. In fact, one might argue that Hemsky has done a better job than him...

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#104 Harlie
April 21 2009, 08:54PM
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baggedmilk wrote:

Want to rip on Penner’s goal totals fine, he underproduced. But how is the guy supposed to rip some big numbers when he’s playing on the 4th line. Think the dude had the drive to play for MacTavish this year? Lost his first line job to Cole by default. Played with Pisani at center. Bounced from the top line after a couple of bad games, ripped in public, up to the pressbox, and down to the 4th line. If your boss did that how would your work week go? I’m guessing you’re going to say that it wouldn’t happen because motivation from your boss doesn’t affect you, and that you’re ironman whose only weekless is bad trade ideas, and Corner Gas.

thats about the best Penner summary I've ever read. Well done and I totally agree.

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#105 Archaeologuy
April 21 2009, 08:55PM
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If the fans want to dream of stealing anyone from TBay it should be St. Louis, as long as they can get past the fact that he isnt 6'8" and 250 lbs. Lecavalier wont be moved because of financial reasons (sponsors will pull out) and Stamkos is the future, so why not target the best player on the team instead?

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#106 Ogden Brother
April 21 2009, 08:59PM
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@ Chris:

Depends what your goals vs timeline is.

Lets just say for $hits and giggles that Gilbert+Gagner is trade for an extended Kovalchuk....we're instantly better, and probably better for the next 3-4 years. However after that the team would be substantially worse as Gagner starts to hit his stride and Kovalchuk starts to lose his.

ie our instant return will be better, but our long run top end will likely be worse.

As for the "total rebuild" we've basically just gone through that, what do you think trading Smyth/Pronger etc was? Rebuilds rarely take 2 seasons, ask Chi/St Louis/LA/Pits/Washinton/NYI/Atl etc etc etc.

I've posted it a few time and at the risk of sounding redundant... but since you asked:

I'd like min one (possible two) small young forward and an offensive dman traded for a large young top 6 forward, a defensive dman a physical 27 - 29 year old top 4 dman a third line center and a long term tending fix, use FA's as neccessary to fill the holes not filled through trade.

However, if they go with status quo (or small changes) we need to realize the team progress will hinge on the development of Gagner/Cogs etc....

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#107 Ogden Brother
April 21 2009, 09:05PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Chris wrote: The majority of people on this site wouldn’t trade Hemsky for LeCavlier and so on… Did you know that Lecavalier only scored 1 more point than Hemmer but played 9 more games. And that’s with Marty St.Louis on his wing. Just saying.

Interestingly enough, Vclav only had 14 more points then Horc this year and his 82 game pace last year was for 16 more points.... yet Vclav is going to make 10 10 10 10 10 million for many many years to come. Just saying

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#108 Archaeologuy
April 21 2009, 09:10PM
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@ Ogden Brother: i must be having a dense moment here but, what?

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#109 Archaeologuy
April 21 2009, 09:12PM
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@ Archaeologuy: ah got it. So your point is that I'm right and Lecavalier is over-rated? Thank you.

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#110 Ogden Brother
April 21 2009, 09:16PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

@ Archaeologuy: ah got it. So your point is that I’m right and Lecavalier is over-rated? Thank you.

My point is that people need to open their eyes and understand that alot of the Oiler contracts aren't as bad as they are percieved.

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#111 Archaeologuy
April 21 2009, 09:26PM
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@ Ogden Brother: sure not all of the contracts are bad. But there are a bunch of iffy ones which add up. Pisani over 2 mill, Penner, Horc, Staios, Nilsson, Moreau, all iffy contracts. It adds up. Somebody on here wrote unused cap space is a waste, but the reality is that if the Oilers want to acquire quality proven players they need all the space they can get. Too close to the cap and teams could find themselves in the mess that the Flames were in, or unable to make necessary trades at the deadline, or unable to re-sign RFAs like Anaheim was in with Penner.

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#112 Ogden Brother
April 21 2009, 09:33PM
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@ Archaeologuy:

I said that and I'll stick with it. You can't manage your roster with the hopes that you'll get someone better later.

We did that in a round about way with Smyth remember? And Lowe ended up running around like a chicken with his head cut off until he had to go to plan J with three DP's tacked on.

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#113 Archaeologuy
April 21 2009, 09:39PM
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@ Ogden Brother: The Smyth situation was a little different. The problem with using your whole Cap is that you have ZERO chance of getting better, so your team better look like Boston or Detroit. And you NEED to manage your cap so that you can afford to resign RFAs and pending UFAs or you lose your talent. The Oilers spending to the Cap on 3rd or 4th liners would have the same result as not having any cash in the pre-Cap era, talent walks away when the contracts are done.

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#114 Chris
April 21 2009, 09:54PM
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@ Archaeologuy: @ Ogden Brother:

Vinny had a bad year... on a poor team. So what. I would take him in a heartbeat for Hemsky straight across and so would about 30 NHL GM's. You guys keep drinking the KoolAid and keep acting surprised when the Oilers miss the playoffs year after year. I mean it must be impossible to figure out how this keeps happening; What with the Oilers having the Leagues best players and all...

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#115 Archaeologuy
April 21 2009, 10:15PM
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@ Chris: Judging by his career statistics Lecavalier has been putting up Hemsky-like numbers in 8 of his ten seasons, and thats while playing with some quality top line talent in Richards, Prospal and St.Louis. He hasnt even been consistently the best forward on his team in the last 5 years. Someone here is drinking the Kool-aid of the 10 million dollar man and it isnt me.

If you want me to ever say I'd take Hemsky-like Production for more than twice the Cap hit than the Oilers currently spend on 83 then you'll be waiting a long time. Face facts. Lecavalier is not a perrenial 90 point guy and his contract makes Horc's look like the steal of the century.

I didnt say the Oil had the best players in the world. However Hemmer is a premier point producer on a per game basis and he's doing it without other players of his caliber. And Lecavalier cannot say the same. If the Oil got Lecavalier dont be surprised if they cant afford to keep Gagner and Cogs when their contracts run out and have to gut their team so it looks like the Lightning's.

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#116 Chris
April 21 2009, 10:20PM
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In the critical ten game strech leading up to the Oilers eventual elimination... How many goals did Hemsky score for his team? ONE. (Excluding an empty netter in one of the three wins in ten games that saw the team free-fall out of the playoffs) The man is an enigma. If something doesn't go right for him early in the game he often completely disappears. MacT didn't dare call him out; I mean It's not like he can fight with the ENTIRE roster at once... But Hemsky falls under that category of Oiler players that needs to do more. Vinny is capable of being a point per game guy. Vinny wins faceoffs, drives the net, and can inspire others. When I say capable, I'm saying that because Vinny has done these things. Hemsky has not. OMG people! Hemsky and LeCavalier both broke into the league the SAME year: LeCavalier has scored 669 points to Hemsky's 331. MORE THAN TWICE AS MANY! ROSE COLORED GLASSES!

I'm not saying Hemsky is a bad player... I'm saying every fan of every franchise in this league would laugh at you guys for suggesting Tambellini wouldn't make that trade. Ideally Tambellini will find someone to play WITH Hemsky... but seriously, we're talking about a player that has never scored thirty goals, played in an All-Star game, or even posted eighty points... And you guys are trying to argue that Hemsky is a better player! KOOLAID!

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#117 Chris
April 21 2009, 10:23PM
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WE NEED AN EDIT. I know LeCavlier broke in in years before Hemsky... I'm just a little worked up watching other teams play in the playoffs... realizing we haven;t won a division title since 1987....

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#118 Ogden Brother
April 21 2009, 10:31PM
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@ Chris:

I think you better read again. No one said Hemsky is the better player. KOOLAID!

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#119 Ogden Brother
April 21 2009, 10:32PM
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@ Archaeologuy:

1. We haven't used our whole cap

2. Moves can always be made to free up cap space

3. The majority of teams in the league in the position to spend have spent roughly the same as we have.... meaning competition for FA's wont be any stronger then it has been.

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#120 Ogden Brother
April 21 2009, 10:33PM
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@ Chris:

Just another FYI: Vinny wasn't even the best player on his team when:

A. they went to finals

B. Until a couple of years ago

...not sure how much inspiring he's done.

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#121 Archaeologuy
April 21 2009, 10:36PM
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Hemsky's 1st 6 seasons = 421 GP 331 pts .7862 ppg Lecavalier 1st 6 seasons = 467 GP 327 pts .7002 ppg

but yeah, Lecavalier is hands down way better for twice the price.

Chris wrote:

Hemsky and LeCavalier both broke into the league the SAME year: LeCavalier has scored 669 points to Hemsky’s 331. MORE THAN TWICE AS MANY! ROSE COLORED GLASSES!

Uh, last time I checked 1998 and 2001 were not the same year. In fact, if my math skillz serve me correct, and they rarely do, then they are 3 years apart. *pats back*

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#122 Archaeologuy
April 21 2009, 10:40PM
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@ Ogden Brother: I never said they used the whole cap, but the Oil need more money to offer FA's given the losing history and lack of top line players to lure others (not to mention being stuck in the boonies of the NHL)

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#123 Ogden Brother
April 21 2009, 10:48PM
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@ Archaeologuy:

Does

"The Oilers spending to the Cap"

Not mean spending the whole cap?

"Oil need more money to offer FA’s given the losing history and lack of top line players to lure others"

And here's where your whole argument falls down. You want to not overpay some guys so we can over pay other guys?

Even when we were offering "more $$" the team still rarely gets who they want. We need to forget the UFA savior, it aint happening (and if it does they will be such an overpayment that thier really isn't a benifit) Us FA's for complementary pieces like a 3rd line center and a shut down #4 dman.

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#124 Chris
April 21 2009, 10:50PM
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@ Archaeologuy:

I already corrected my mistake. I had typed a whole bunch of stuff.. was going to compare either career totals or numbers since to Hemsky enterd the league.. while editing and rearranging my thoughts I bumped the post button with the laptop mouse... I couldn't EDIT it because this website lacks an edit feature... I pointed out my mistake but knew you guys would jump on this so my explanation was brief. (comment 117) Thanks for pushing your advantage though.

It takes a number of special players to actually win a cup. There isn't enough to work with here. I don't see Cogliano or even Hemsky ever being the key ingrediants to achieve the ultimate prize. Pronger and Smyth were such players. Pisani and Roli acted like such players when the orginization caught "lightning in a bottle" The pieces the Oilers need haven't arrived yet... Gagner may become a key member of a truly great squad; but the Oilers need to start drafting and drafting well starting THIS year. That is the real hope... It's time we realistically examined our expectations for next season.

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#125 Chris
April 21 2009, 11:01PM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

I think you better read again. No one said Hemsky is the better player. KOOLAID!

I used LeCavalier as an example...remembering the rhetoric that floated around this website when it was thought Vinny was available. Many, many Oiler fans tried to argue that Hemsky was the better player... And again, just tonight: Archaeologuy wrote:

Did you know that Lecavalier only scored 1 more point than Hemmer but played 9 more games. And that’s with Marty St.Louis on his wing. Just saying.

And:Ogden Brother wrote:

Interestingly enough, Vclav only had 14 more points then Horc this year and his 82 game pace last year was for 16 more points…. yet Vclav is going to make 10 10 10 10 10 million for many many years to come. Just saying

So a dominant centerman... a guy who will easily score more than a thousand points in his career is being compared to Horcoff and Hemsky. I'm quite okay with accusing you both of wearing rose colored glasses, or drinking the Koolaid. I'm just sayin...

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#126 Archaeologuy
April 21 2009, 11:07PM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

Does “The Oilers spending to the Cap” Not mean spending the whole cap?

I meant it to be at or near the cap, you're nitpicking.

Ogden Brother wrote:

Oil need more money to offer FA’s given the losing history and lack of top line players to lure others” And here’s where your whole argument falls down. You want to not overpay some guys so we can over pay other guys?

Ok, so let me get this right. I suggest that overpaying under-producing players is bad and prevents the Oilers from signing or acquiring better players, and you disagree? THEN you call me a hypocrite because I think that the Oilers need to fill some of their holes via free-agency but they might need to pay more than Detroit, San Jose, or Anaheim?

So in this care-free world you live in where the Oilers can throw the Cap max at a roster that cant make the playoffs HOW does the team get better? Magic? It wont be through trades because no one will take on salaries when the Cap falls. It wont be through Free Agency because there is no room. It wont be through development because they cant afford to re-sign the kids. So how exactly?

The foresight being thrown my direction here is unbelievable. Ive got one guy saying spend to the Cap max on a non-playoff team, and another guy saying pick up the MAXED out contract of a guy who isnt even the best player on his own team AND has a no trade clause IN EXCHANGE for a relatively cheap contract of a guy who produces roughly the same or better. This is Bizarro land today.

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#127 Ogden Brother
April 21 2009, 11:12PM
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Chris wrote:

Ogden Brother wrote: I think you better read again. No one said Hemsky is the better player. KOOLAID! I used LeCavalier as an example…remembering the rhetoric that floated around this website when it was thought Vinny was available. Many, many Oiler fans tried to argue that Hemsky was the better player… And again, just tonight: Archaeologuy wrote: Did you know that Lecavalier only scored 1 more point than Hemmer but played 9 more games. And that’s with Marty St.Louis on his wing. Just saying. And:Ogden Brother wrote: Interestingly enough, Vclav only had 14 more points then Horc this year and his 82 game pace last year was for 16 more points…. yet Vclav is going to make 10 10 10 10 10 million for many many years to come. Just saying So a dominant centerman… a guy who will easily score more than a thousand points in his career is being compared to Horcoff and Hemsky. I’m quite okay with accusing you both of wearing rose colored glasses, or drinking the Koolaid. I’m just sayin…

Yes a dominate center with a 7.8 cap hit until the age of 40 can be compared to a 5.6 center and a 4 winger.... player for player he's hands down better then Horc and probably better (was anyways, still .... maybe) then Hemsky. You are ignoring the whole picture though.

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#128 Ogden Brother
April 21 2009, 11:16PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Ogden Brother wrote: Does “The Oilers spending to the Cap” Not mean spending the whole cap? I meant it to be at or near the cap, you’re nitpicking. Ogden Brother wrote: Oil need more money to offer FA’s given the losing history and lack of top line players to lure others” And here’s where your whole argument falls down. You want to not overpay some guys so we can over pay other guys? Ok, so let me get this right. I suggest that overpaying under-producing players is bad and prevents the Oilers from signing or acquiring better players, and you disagree? THEN you call me a hypocrite because I think that the Oilers need to fill some of their holes via free-agency but they might need to pay more than Detroit, San Jose, or Anaheim? So in this care-free world you live in where the Oilers can throw the Cap max at a roster that cant make the playoffs HOW does the team get better? Magic? It wont be through trades because no one will take on salaries when the Cap falls. It wont be through Free Agency because there is no room. It wont be through development because they cant afford to re-sign the kids. So how exactly? The foresight being thrown my direction here is unbelievable. Ive got one guy saying spend to the Cap max on a non-playoff team, and another guy saying pick up the MAXED out contract of a guy who isnt even the best player on his own team AND has a no trade clause IN EXCHANGE for a relatively cheap contract of a guy who produces roughly the same or better. This is Bizarro land today.

Because I'm fully aware that:

1. The FA (for premier players) market is small and getting smaller

2. The smaller the FA market the more leverage... and choice the handfull of FA's have... meaning Edmonton is highly likely to be near the bottom of that list, winning or losing record

3. FA signings rarely work out to the signings team anyways, so if the team somehow manges to get past point 1 and 2, theirs still a high probability that the deal will end up being a poor one.

Your ideas are fine in theory, unfortunatly they are almost pointless in reality.

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#129 Archaeologuy
April 21 2009, 11:18PM
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Chris wrote:

It takes a number of special players to actually win a cup.

So he won the Conn Smythe that year? I thought it was Richards. And Khabibulin had a lot to do with that also.

What kind of a player does it take to go to Game 7 of the Cup finals with your starting goalie unable to play in the last 6 games?

As for your mistake, i didnt see that you corrected it before I jumped on it.

Chris wrote:

So a dominant centerman… a guy who will easily score more than a thousand points in his career is being compared to Horcoff and Hemsky. I’m quite okay with accusing you both of wearing rose colored glasses, or drinking the Koolaid. I’m just sayin…

Quite obviously I managed to Compare them pretty well, and Lecavalier is hardly "Dominant". As for Ogden Brother, his comparison was to show how much better Horc's contract looks in light of the fact that he wasnt even 20 points behind a Max Cap player. You arent even able to clearly see that the both of us made valid points. That's a tell tale sign of the Rose Coloured Glasses. You havent responded about Lecav not being the best plyer on his team or having his stats padded by better players, you havent responded about the first 6 season production of the two players in question.

Now i need to go to bed. We can continue this in the morning or move on to another topic.

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#130 Chris
April 22 2009, 07:32AM
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@ Archaeologuy: My point isn't about Vinny. LeCavalier was an EXAMPLE. (Probably a poor example)... My point is about Oiler fans loving and over-evaluating the players... You guys keep finding new and innovative ways to prove LeCavalier is over-rated, and new ways to prove Hemsky is under-rated, or that Horcoff's contract isn't that bad... Everybody is wonderful, Shremp is tradeable, and so on. (Not you guys specifically)

Even suggesting a guy like Hemsky, or Cogliano, or any key ingrediant of this LOSING franchise is tradeable draws GALES of ignorent and emotionally based protest. Someone has to go. A player of quality will be moved to obtain a top six forward. Bet on it... Tambellini made it very clear that changes will be made.

*Smiles imagining Dennis' reaction to the news when Pouliot is finally moved for a conditional sixth round pick*

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#131 Chris
April 22 2009, 08:32AM
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@ Ogden Brother: @ Archaeologuy:

I don't mean to be arguing with youguys specifiically. I come to this site often and have read your stuff. Our views are generally more in step; particularly during the season.

I'm just back on stage one of the Roilercoaster.

Stage One: Watching OTHER teams play in the playoffs. This stage generally leaves me frusterated and angry. It's also an eye opening experience, insofar as I'm exposed to more hockey, being played at a high level, by other franchises. It's a chance to evaluate what the other guys have... During this stage, I grudgingly shake off the notion that the mighty Oil are the greatest hockey squadron in the world and possess all of the leagues greatest most under-rated players who just need the right coach, ref, or Chad Moreau workoiut to become Stanley Cup Champions once again. Stage One is often accompannied by springtime rants about how much the Oilers suck.(Often to uninterested friends and family who just want to have a quiet BBQ)

Stage Two: Build up to the Draft and Free Agency. The Cup had been awarded... I try to forget the previous season even happened, and begin to look forward with cautious optimism/ giddy enthusiasm. Spend countless hours discussing who the Oilers should sign, draft, etc. and why.... as if it really matters what I think.

Satge Three: Training Camp/ PreSeason. THis is where I put on my OILER GOGGLES, abandon all reason, and surrender to the notion that THIS is finally the year it all comes together. This is the year that aquisition x rebounds, is happy to be an Oiler, and adjusts quickly to playing a new position and leads the Oilers to their first 100pt regular season in 20 years.

Stage Four: Reality sets in. The team is still marginal. Hemsky is still spotty.... It's probably the coaches fault... and so on.

I've been doing this for years. Have a laugh at my expense when in three short months my doom and gloom meter completely reverses...

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#132 Archaeologuy
April 22 2009, 08:52AM
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@ Chris:

I get what youre saying. My only point was that Lecav will not be a Crosby, Malkin, or even Getzlaf, and thus his contract cant be justified in the least.

Chris wrote:

*Smiles imagining Dennis’ reaction to the news when Pouliot is finally moved for a conditional sixth round pick*

LOL

And for the Record. Horcoff's Contract IS bad if he cant find better form. I will never relent on my disgust with the contract, but there are worse ones out there.

I think i'm going through similar stages as you. Right now I'm pretty willing to argue with everyone about anything. There is no rhyme or reason.

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#133 J-Bird
April 22 2009, 09:09AM
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Comparing Hemsky to Lecavelier is laughable. It really is.

I saw somebody point out points in his first 6 seasons? As Mark Twain once said, there's lies, damn lies, and statistics man. Spin Doctor man?

146 goals for Lecavelier, 93 for Hemsky.

5 Times over 30 goals for Lecavelier, Twice over 40, Once over 50.

ZERO times over 25 ever for Hemsky.

Now, do I think Vinny's worth the money he's gonna get? No I don't. But he's surely to god a better player than Hemsky is, without question. Personally, myself, I weight scoring goals a lot higher than assists, always have. The comparison is apples to oranges is all I'm saying.

Bottom line for me though, holding on to all the smurfs is a mistake. The team won't get any return on the likes of Horcoff/Penner/Nilsson, so something is going to give here.

It frightens me they have another smurf coming in Eberle too. Where does he fit? The farm team is in shambles. It's a bigger mess, more than a tweek away, from making the playoffs. The goaltending situation is less clear today than it was at the start of the season with the 3 ringed circus. Personally, I think Tambo should go after Harding via trade, I think he could be had.

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#134 J-Bird
April 22 2009, 09:10AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

I think i’m going through similar stages as you. Right now I’m pretty willing to argue with everyone about anything. There is no rhyme or reason.

I think we're all in that state!

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#135 Archaeologuy
April 22 2009, 09:22AM
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J-Bird wrote:

But he’s surely to god a better player than Hemsky is, without question.

he wasnt this season.

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#136 Ogden Brother
April 22 2009, 09:29AM
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J-Bird wrote:

Comparing Hemsky to Lecavelier is laughable. It really is. I saw somebody point out points in his first 6 seasons? As Mark Twain once said, there’s lies, damn lies, and statistics man. Spin Doctor man? 146 goals for Lecavelier, 93 for Hemsky. 5 Times over 30 goals for Lecavelier, Twice over 40, Once over 50. ZERO times over 25 ever for Hemsky. Now, do I think Vinny’s worth the money he’s gonna get? No I don’t. But he’s surely to god a better player than Hemsky is, without question. Personally, myself, I weight scoring goals a lot higher than assists, always have. The comparison is apples to oranges is all I’m saying. Bottom line for me though, holding on to all the smurfs is a mistake. The team won’t get any return on the likes of Horcoff/Penner/Nilsson, so something is going to give here. It frightens me they have another smurf coming in Eberle too. Where does he fit? The farm team is in shambles. It’s a bigger mess, more than a tweek away, from making the playoffs. The goaltending situation is less clear today than it was at the start of the season with the 3 ringed circus. Personally, I think Tambo should go after Harding via trade, I think he could be had.

Why is this so hard for people to understand?

No one is claiming Hemsky is hands down better player then Vinny. People are claiming that age and contract included, Hemsky is probably the more valuable asset at this time.

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#137 Jonathan Willis
April 22 2009, 09:37AM
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I do sometimes wish the Oilers had picked up Olli Jokinen. Not seriously, because he cost a lot and isn't a complete player, but just because I've enjoyed the reappraisal of Daymond Langkow over in Calgary.

In the Southeast, Jokinen scored 38, 39 and 34 goals and 89, 91 and 71 points. This year in the Western Conference he scored 29 goals and 57 points. Which total is closer to his value to a team?

Erik Cole's another fun example.

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#138 Jonathan Willis
April 22 2009, 09:38AM
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J-Bird wrote:

As Mark Twain once said, there’s lies, damn lies, and statistics man.

It think it's hilarious that you followed this quote with a statistic.

People like statistics when they fit comfortably into their preconceived notions. People dislike statistics when they challenge their preconceived notions.

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#139 Archaeologuy
April 22 2009, 09:48AM
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J-Bird wrote:

Comparing Hemsky to Lecavelier is laughable. It really is. I saw somebody point out points in his first 6 seasons? As Mark Twain once said, there’s lies, damn lies, and statistics man. Spin Doctor man?

You wanna have more fun? Take a look at Hemsky's 1st 5 to Iginla's 1st 5.

For the first half of his career Iggy was constantly called out for not producing the way his talent was capable of doing, for not going to the next level. Sounds familiar? Dont count Hemsky out just yet. I'm not ready to say he's plateaued.

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#140 J-Bird
April 22 2009, 09:56AM
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Who said I'm counting Hemsky out? I'm just saying, apples to oranges comparing Vinny to Hemsky.

And Willis, you obviously missed my point, I was just showing how you can sciew stats to make a point the other way. Stats are fun that way. You've done a great job of it for some time. I don't discount them, but you can have fun making a point for sure.

Archaeloguy, how's Hemmer's 6th season stack up to Iggy's 6th? There's those stats again. ;)

Round and round we go.

I think as Oil fans we can all see Hemsky's potential. One has to wonder when and if he'll acheive it?

Thoughts on Harding?

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#141 topshelf
April 22 2009, 10:01AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Dont count Hemsky out just yet. I’m not ready to say he’s plateaued

I would hope not, he's not even 25 yet.

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#142 Archaeologuy
April 22 2009, 10:08AM
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@ J-Bird: Yup, that was the Olympic year was it not? That's when he became a legit superstar. I fully expect Hemsky to keep getting better over his current contract, and surrounding him with some people that have similar skills can only help.

Lecav and Hemsky arent the same kinds of players, but their production offensively can be compared except for 2 out of 10 seasons. I dont want to repeat myself but Hemsky hasnt had the benefit of playing with St.Louis, Prospal, or Richards to pad his stats.

I dont know much about harding, so i cant say much about him. I say find out how much khabibulin wants then make a decision. I doubt he'll come cheap, but who knows. They could always go with Roli for another year, but if they can get something better and more long term then OK.

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#143 Scott
April 22 2009, 10:25AM
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Chris wrote:

Smiles imagining Dennis’ reaction to the news when Pouliot is finally moved for a conditional sixth round pick*

Dare to dream Chris, dare to dream. It will be a good day when that waste of a roster spot is gone.

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#144 RossCreek
April 22 2009, 11:44AM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

Rebuilds rarely take 2 seasons, ask Chi/St Louis/LA/Pits/Washinton/NYI/Atl etc etc etc.

And how many of them had a 1st overall pick in the mix? Or multiple top 5 picks? Keep battling for 8th and remain in mediocrity.

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#145 Ogden Brother
April 22 2009, 11:47AM
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RossCreek wrote:

Ogden Brother wrote: Rebuilds rarely take 2 seasons, ask Chi/St Louis/LA/Pits/Washinton/NYI/Atl etc etc etc. And how many of them had a 1st overall pick in the mix? Or multiple top 5 picks? Keep battling for 8th and remain in mediocrity.

You think this city would have handled 4 years in the lottory? ... post lockout.

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#146 RossCreek
April 22 2009, 11:49AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Someone here is drinking the Kool-aid of the 10 million dollar man and it isnt me.

FYI just like Horcoff isn't making 7 million a year, Lecavalier isn't making 10 million a year. His sap hit is 7.7 (slightly less than Brad Richards).

I'm just sayin

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#147 RossCreek
April 22 2009, 11:58AM
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J-Bird wrote:

Personally, I think Tambo should go after Harding via trade, I think he could be had.

I agree, however I saw yesterday that Backstrom got hip surgery. I wonder if that would alter Minny's thoughts on moving Harding (whenever & whoever their new GM is).

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