Expected Vs. Actual Save Percentage

Jonathan Willis
April 27 2009 01:47PM

Luongo

Gabriel Desjardins of behindthenet.ca does a study at the end of each season that attempts to measure difficulty of shots that every NHL goaltender faces. The methodology can be found here, and it’s an interesting look at a statistic that’s largely swayed by team ability.

His results for 2008-09 are out; here’s a look at Western Conference goaltenders this season (all numbers at even-strength, minimum of 30GP over the last two seasons):

Player Name | Expected SV%| Actual SV% | Difference

Nikolai Khabibulin | .902 | .927 | +.025 Roberto Luongo | .906 | .931 | +.025 Jonas Hiller | .906 | .927 | +.021 Pekka Rinne | .907 | .921 | +.014 Chris Mason | .909 | .923 | +.014 Steve Mason | .904 | .917 | +.013 Dwayne Roloson | .909 | .920 | +.011 Dan Ellis | .903 | .911 | +.008 Evgeni Nabokov | .907 | .915 | +.008 Ty Conklin | .908 | .913 | +.005 Josh Harding | .919 | .922 | +.003 Nik Backstrom | .919 | .921 | +.002 Curtis Sanford | .910 | .912 | +.002 Matheiu Garon | .906 | .907 | +.001 Ilya Bryzgalov | .911 | .911 | EV J-S Giguere | .910 | .905 | -.005 Chris Osgood | .901 | .894 | -.007 Jason Labarbera | .912 | .905 | -.007 Marty Turco | .906 | .898 | -.008 Miikka Kiprusoff | .908 | .899 | -.009 Erik Ersberg | .914 | .904 | -.010 Andrew Raycroft | .916 | .900 | -.016 Peter Budaj | .915 | .896 | -.019 Manny Legace | .911 | .882 | -.029

Some other notables who played fewer games:

Jeff Deslauriers | .913 | .900 | -.013 Curtis McElhinney | .913 | .893 | -.020

No real surprises on that list; goaltenders having bad seasons end up near the bottom as well as the just-plain-bad goaltenders in the league.

74b7cedc5d8bfbe88cf071309e98d2c3
Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#1 Jon K
April 27 2009, 02:47PM
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It's interesting that Backstrom and Harding are only average by this metric, which is something that on an anecdotal basis makes sense. We've seen goalies leave Minnie in the past and never replicate the same numbers.

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#2 Archaeologuy
April 27 2009, 02:48PM
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My wee little brain tried to understand what was happening here and it gave up.

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#3 Ogden Brother
April 27 2009, 02:51PM
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Wow, that's amazing.

It would be really interesting to see a plot of Oiler shooters... I'd be willing to bet Gagner has a dispreportionate amount in the money areas.

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#4 Madman37
April 27 2009, 03:19PM
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Nabakov needs to drop in the rankings or his numbers are backwards. One of the Two.

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#5 Jonathan Willis
April 27 2009, 03:57PM
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@ Madman37:

Backwards - my mistake.

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#6 Brian O'Neill
April 27 2009, 05:19PM
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The difference shows why Luongo, should be a nominee instead of Backstrom.

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#7 Jonathan Willis
April 27 2009, 05:25PM
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@ Brian O'Neill:

Speaking as someone with no particular love for Luongo, I think he was easily better than Backstrom this year.

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#8 RossCreek
April 27 2009, 05:31PM
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Is it possible this means Luongo could be up for the Hart? I've read that the league doesn't want many (any) double award nominees to ensure more players show up to the (hopefully) star-studded event in Vegas. I f Bobby Lu was also nominated for the Vezina, that would mean 1 less player attending the award show. Just a thought.

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#9 Lofty
April 27 2009, 06:43PM
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Do they have a total saves for the season stat anywhere? Roli would have to be near the top of that list... He got shelled all season!

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#10 Victoria
April 27 2009, 07:06PM
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Lofty wrote:

Do they have a total saves for the season stat anywhere? Roli would have to be near the top of that list… He got shelled all season!

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20092ALLGAGAll&sort=saves&viewName=wlt

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#11 Brian O'Neill
April 27 2009, 07:39PM
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@ Jonathan Willis: The Guys on team 1040 were talking about how if this was Luongo's first good season, he would've got the nom, but because he had an average season for his standards he was overlooked.

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#12 Jonathan Willis
April 27 2009, 08:14PM
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Brian O'Neill wrote:

@ Jonathan Willis: The Guys on team 1040 were talking about how if this was Luongo’s first good season, he would’ve got the nom, but because he had an average season for his standards he was overlooked.

There's a lot of truth to that, I think.

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#13 RossCreek
April 27 2009, 08:31PM
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@ Jonathan Willis: I need you to help settle something on Gregor's post with your opinion (even though I'm not certain you'll agree with me)

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#14 mharco
April 28 2009, 12:15AM
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Woohoo, I immediately feel better with Calgary out. This is a good day for Hockey!

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#15 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 12:22AM
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The way I see things shaking down in CowTown:

Mike Keenan & Jim Playfair are on their way out. Brent Sutter comes in as the new head coach.

Brent will keep Rich Preston on board and he may look at adding a guy like Craig Hartsburg (previously worked together @ World Jrs), or perhaps Ryan McGill from Quad City (maybe even Willie Desjardins). Perhaps Jim Playfair heads to Red Deer to take over the Rebels.

This will be a big move for Darryl, to hire a new head coach that adds some stability to the franchise. It could potentially be his last hire, and who better to turn things over to than his brother. I don’t see Jersey standing in the way of this happening, however I’d be shocked if their wasn’t some type of compensation headed to the Devils.

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#16 Chaz
April 28 2009, 08:49AM
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Just checked Flames Nation to see what kind of reaction there would be after the bow out last night. To my surprise there were only 4 comments on the latest article there, which would have been their "GDB" article (I assume things work the same way there). How weak is that? Now I don't personally post comments during games but it's refreshing to know that I can go after the game to either bask in the glory after a win by reading the GDB comments or wallow in frustration. Either way I know the Oiler Nation has my back.

But 4 comments on the Flames GDB post?!?! No wonder your team packed it in Flames fans. Where's the love? Pathetic. Even more pathetic than your team in the playoffs.

Keenan and Sutter should rent a convertable, start a high speed chase, hold hands, and drive off a cliff together. Happy landings!!

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#17 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 09:00AM
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@ Chaz: I don't think FlamesNation has caught on quite the same as OilersNation. It's fairly new and they've got other websites to check out.

@ Jonathan Willis: How has the Flames & Canucks sights been doing hit-wise?

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#18 Chris
April 28 2009, 09:05AM
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Anyone care to do an expected vs actual save percentage analysis on Kipper last night? HA!

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#19 Archaeologuy
April 28 2009, 09:14AM
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@ Chris: If there is any part of the Flames franchise that makes me happy it's knowing that Kipper is progressively getting worse and signed long term. I can always say, "at least we arent stuck with THAT guy in net for the next X years!"

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#20 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 09:21AM
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@ Archaeologuy: @ Chris: Wasn't Kipper's fault last night. I don't know why anyone signs goalies to long term deals though. They should get big money for short term. Not sure I can think of a goalie that should be signed longer than 5 years.

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#21 Colin
April 28 2009, 09:29AM
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@ Chaz: I posted there, you know just to be "nice".

Speaking of nice, Wanye where's our rubbing Flamers noses in it thread. I demand one.

It was obvious the 'lames where going nowhere when they choked their way out of the division though. Hopefully they don't make any changes, 4 more years...

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#22 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 09:34AM
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@ Colin: Ya, injuries had nothing to do with that, eh?

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#23 Chris
April 28 2009, 10:04AM
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@ RossCreek:

Have injuries accounted for the Flames getting out of the first round only ONCE in twenty years?

Wow. Year, after year, after year... Lot's and, lot's of injuries...

Maybe instead of evaluating the roster, the coaches, or the management: the Flames ownwership group should take a hard look at the trainers/medical staff.

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#24 Chris
April 28 2009, 10:07AM
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Colin wrote:

Speaking of nice, Wanye where’s our rubbing Flamers noses in it thread. I demand one.

And please link the two sites.

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#25 Chaz
April 28 2009, 10:19AM
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@ RossCreek: It's true, injuries were a factor. Their top players all had "No Heart Syndromne".

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#26 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 10:22AM
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@ Chris: But hey, when they do get out of the 1st round, a trip to the finals is a lock (lol). I wasn't talking about every year, just this year. So aside from '04, they haven't gotten out of the 1st round since the '89 Cup? YOWZA! ~But ya, I guess I'd rather be sittin outside the playoffs for the past 3 years than getting ousted in the 1st round~

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#27 topshelf
April 28 2009, 10:26AM
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@ RossCreek: Either way our teams hit the tee box at pretty much the same time. So is your team really that much better?

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#28 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 10:30AM
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@ Chaz: Phaneuf shouldn't have been playing (and he may as well hadn't). Regher (their top shutdown guy) was out. Sarich played his heart out even though he shouldn't have been out there. Langkow wouldn't have played if it weren't playoffs. Bourque returned from injury, but wouldn't have played if it weren't playoffs.

Iginla? You have to question if there was something there (I don't know, but Jeez Iz!).

The point is, every year after a team is eliminated, you find out about injuries you didn't have a clue about.

The better team won (and I'm not [that] mad), I like the Hawks.

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#29 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 10:35AM
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@ topshelf: Oil Fan: "You only played 6 more games than us" Me: "Ya, but they played 6 more games than you. Including the raw emotions & beliefs that games 3 & 4 gave us, something I'm sure you wish you could have. I'd rather have those 6 games than not have em"

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#30 Archaeologuy
April 28 2009, 10:40AM
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@ RossCreek: ah, 'tis better to have loved and lost than never to have loved at all...

BS. Flames suck.

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#31 Chris
April 28 2009, 10:43AM
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@ RossCreek:

Oiler fans have taken a lot of flack from Flames fans for a number of years now... But the fact remains: it's not like the Flames organization has had a whole lot more success. Should be an interesting offseason for both teams. Cheers.

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#32 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 10:43AM
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@ Archaeologuy: If the situation were reversed, you and I would be making the exact opposite statements.

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#33 topshelf
April 28 2009, 10:44AM
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@ RossCreek: Nope. The joy of watching the almighty Flames choke and lose was more joy than I ever coud've felt. ~I thought, with Jokinen, the Flames were cup contenders.~

Injuries are a part of hockey. You're kidding yourself if you think you're team is the only one with players playing injured.

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#34 Archaeologuy
April 28 2009, 10:44AM
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@ RossCreek: Absolutely Correct. And I wouldnt expect any different.

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#35 topshelf
April 28 2009, 10:50AM
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@ Chris: I would expect, probably as most Flames fans will hope, that there will be changes made within that organization.

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#36 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 10:55AM
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@ topshelf: How'd the Flames choke? The better team won. I never said injuries weren't a part of hockey. I know every team deals with them at some point in the season. Unfortunately for the Flames, their timing was bad. Imagine Seabrook & Keith were out. Thats the breaks. Its not like I'm on here bashing the Oil nonstop and praising the Flames. I'm a realist. You can continue being a "Jake Daniels - Calgary sucks" guy.

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#37 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 10:56AM
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@ Archaeologuy: *Tips hat*

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#38 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 10:59AM
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topshelf wrote:

~I thought, with Jokinen, the Flames were cup contenders.~

Yup. With Jokinen, without Regher & with a half wounded (and terible) Phaneuf. Right?

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#39 topshelf
April 28 2009, 11:01AM
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@ RossCreek: And I'm not on here bashing the Flames all the time either. To me, Flames fans seem arrogant and they believedthat their team is far superior to the Oilers and were going to get the finals without having to earn it. Maybe you aren't one of these arrogant fans. Sorry for painting you with the same brush. But as an Oilers fan I will ALWAYS take advantage of ANY situation where I can hate on the Flames. That's just the life of an Oilers fan. Oh yeah, Jake Daniels is a knob.

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#40 topshelf
April 28 2009, 11:02AM
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*believed that*

stoopid edit button

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#41 Ogden Brother
April 28 2009, 11:12AM
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RossCreek wrote:

@ topshelf: How’d the Flames choke? The better team won. I never said injuries weren’t a part of hockey. I know every team deals with them at some point in the season. Unfortunately for the Flames, their timing was bad. Imagine Seabrook & Keith were out. Thats the breaks. Its not like I’m on here bashing the Oil nonstop and praising the Flames. I’m a realist. You can continue being a “Jake Daniels - Calgary sucks” guy.

We all know the loss of Seabrook would be debilitating for any team in the league ;)

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#42 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 11:13AM
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@ topshelf: LOL. I actually like Jake. I know he does it with "fun" intentions, but it does get annoying (thats prob why he does it). I took only 1 Flame on my draft (in the last round just to have one), so I didn't exactly think they were headed for the promised land. But I hoped (one round at a time).

Anyways, I think Darryl is fairly safe. His teflon bullet-proof vest may be removed, but he's safe IMO. I've actually always liked Mike Keenan, but he's not gonna accomplish anything more in year 3 than he already has. I'm fairly confident Brent Sutter will be there, but I guess we'll see.

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#43 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 11:14AM
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@ Ogden Brother: Give me a break buddy. Obviously you don't know anything other than Oilers. You've altready proved that. Like My Cousin Vinny said, "I'm finished with this guy"

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#44 Chris
April 28 2009, 11:16AM
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topshelf wrote:

Oh yeah, Jake Daniels is a knob

This is totally off topic... But who out there hates it when Jake trots out his, there-are-thirty-teams-in-the-league-so-you-can-only-expect-to-win-the-cup-every- thirty-years-or-so theory...

Makes me crazy! It's not as though the Stanley Cup is awarded in turn, in a fair and equitable manner, to each organization who passively and patiently patiently waits long enough- like so many children lining up at kindergarden for a snack... You fight for it! Take it by force! Demand changes if the management, coaches, and players repeatedly fail to deliver! Sometimes Jake IS a knob.

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#45 RossCreek
April 28 2009, 11:16AM
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@ Ogden Brother: The point was to compare Seabrook & Keith to Regher & Phaneuf. I know... over your head. Take the first 2 out, and put the latter 2 in (healthy) and there's a world of difference there.

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#46 topshelf
April 28 2009, 11:24AM
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@ RossCreek: I don't think Darryl should be safe at all. I think he made some questionable moves and basically he handcuffed his coaching staff which ultimately lead to their first round failure.

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#47 Ogden Brother
April 28 2009, 11:27AM
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RossCreek wrote:

@ Ogden Brother: Give me a break buddy. Obviously you don’t know anything other than Oilers. You’ve altready proved that. Like My Cousin Vinny said, “I’m finished with this guy”

Wow, relax. It was a joke.

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#48 Ogden Brother
April 28 2009, 11:28AM
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RossCreek wrote:

@ Ogden Brother: The point was to compare Seabrook & Keith to Regher & Phaneuf. I know… over your head. Take the first 2 out, and put the latter 2 in (healthy) and there’s a world of difference there.

Yes, I got the point. I was jokingly making a jab at your H on for Seabrook.

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#49 Lofty
April 28 2009, 11:32AM
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Chris wrote:

topshelf wrote: Oh yeah, Jake Daniels is a knob This is totally off topic… But who out there hates it when Jake trots out his, there-are-thirty-teams-in-the-league-so-you-can-only-expect-to-win-the-cup-every- thirty-years-or-so theory… Makes me crazy! It’s not as though the Stanley Cup is awarded in turn, in a fair and equitable manner, to each organization who passively and patiently patiently waits long enough- like so many children lining up at kindergarden for a snack… You fight for it! Take it by force! Demand changes if the management, coaches, and players repeatedly fail to deliver! Sometimes Jake IS a knob.

And the leafs have been waiting a LONG time!

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#50 jeff
April 28 2009, 11:35AM
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Why is it that Lunogo's projected total was so low? Lower then Rollie, JDD, Budaj? List really has no meaning.

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