Do You See What I See V1

Jason Gregor
May 11 2009 02:19PM

sidewalk_art

Today Jason Gregor begins a new series where he takes a look around the league and discusses the goods. Personally we like it. - WG

Without further ado Nation here is a series of random points that might not make an article each, but should be brought to your attention. Let's get right to what I call "DYSWIS." Ok I don't call it that, but if I was particularly pressed for time I suppose I could.

  • Is Gustavsson the next second coming of Jacques Plante or he is just another decent goalie who isn’t in the NHL? He is good, but saying he is Hiller and Backstrom is reaching a bit for a potentially higher level, rather than more of a realistic possibility.
  • I should clarify something. It has been reported that the Oilers can’t offer him a contract because they are at 50. While the latter is true, there is a short window that allows teams to sign players for next year, even if they are at 50 contracts. Rick Olczyk confirmed this was true, but wouldn’t divulge the exact date that the window closes, “It closes very shortly,” he said. I’ve been trying to find the date, but haven’t found the exact day, but it seems to be sometime in May. It is true the Oilers are interested and they can offer him a contract, but remember with Gustavsson, due to his age he only has to sign a ONE-YEAR entry level deal, not the usual three. So there won’t be an excessive bidding war, just some differing on bonuses.
  • What was Aaron Ward thinking? Protect yourself, rather than keep your hands down at your side after you’ve been jostling with Scott Walker. You don’t play the role until the last second and then just stand there. It looked like he tried to goad Walker into a fight and then changed his mind at the last moment. It will be interesting to see if the NHL overturns the automatic one-game suspension that comes with getting an instigator in the last ten minutes. Right up until Walker punched Ward both guys looked like they knew what would happen next. Walker has always been a hard-nosed, but honorable player. In a situation like that, Ward at least needs to protect himself.

Deep breath - are you taking all of this in? Good....

  • Johan Franzen is a thoroughbred amongst Mules. He has great hands in tight, and a deceptive shot from outside. While many are screaming saying he took the home town discount, a little closer look at his contract and you realize he didn’t take that much of a hit. He’s already 29 and he’ll be 40 when his new 11-year deal ends. He will make 38 million over the next seven years, averaging just over five million a season. Would he have gotten that much more on the free agent market this summer?
  • I wonder if the NHL will look at limiting the length of contracts if a player is 28 or older. The Wings have locked up many of their players with contracts until they’re 40. Most of the money gets paid upfront, but the cap hit is lower, and if the player retires after 35 the remaining years won’t count against the cap. It’s a smart move by the Wings, and a few other teams, but it will be curious to see if the NHL tries to close that window during the next CBA.
  • Yes, Dan Clearly’s leg was in the crease behind Hiller but it didn’t limit Hiller’s movement. Watch the replay again; he didn’t even try to move his leg to make the save.
  • Unless you are a Pens fan how can you not cheer for the Caps tonight? Who doesn’t want to see a game seven between these two teams? This series has been great.
  • I wonder if those who thought Mike Green was a guaranteed top-five D-man in the league because of one good offensive season, still think that after watching him during the playoffs? I like Green, but if you think he is better than Bouwmeester you aren’t watching closely enough.
  • CBC clearly lost the TV trade at the start of this round. CBC got game one of the Ducks/Wings from TSN, while TSN received game six between the Pens/Caps. I wonder if Grapes, or one of their analysts, will critique how bad of a deal that was.
  • Eric Staal is a special player. The more I watch him the more I find it hard to believe he won’t be on the Olympic team. Outside of Ryan Getzlaf he has been the best Canadian player in the playoffs. He could be the reason Joe Thornton doesn’t make the team, moreso than Thornton’s inability to lead his team to the Cup.
  • Do Oiler fans still think Craig MacTavish stunted Erik Cole’s offensive ability?

And here are some great tidbits courtesy of Elias Sports Bureau:

  • Over the last two seasons, Franzen leads the NHL with 20 playoff goals and Zetterberg ranks second with 19. Zetterberg has three empty-net goals in the 2009 playoffs, the most in one postseason since Pete Stemkowski of the Rangers netted three ENGs in 1974.
  • Marc-Andre Fleury and the Penguins beat the Capitals for the second straight night to take a three-games-to two lead in their series. It's only the second time in Fleury's NHL career regular-season and playoffs that he's started and won games on consecutive days. He did that in March 2006 against the Devils and Flyers (both in Pittsburgh).
  • Dustin Byfuglien recorded his first two-goal game in the playoffs to help the Blackhawks beat the Canucks, 4-2, and take a three-games-to-two lead in their series. Byfuglien is the sixth different Chicago player with a multiple-goal game in this year's playoffs; the others are Martin Havlat, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp and Dave Bolland. The Red Wings, with four, are the only other team with more than three such players in the 2009 NHL postseason.
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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#1 Jason Gregor
May 11 2009, 02:27PM
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Walker did have the suspension rescinded, but got a $2,500 fine for his punch on Ward. Here is what Walker said in a statement released by the Hurricanes.

"Based on what was said on the ice as I was dropping my gloves, it was my understanding that I was engaged in an altercation."

A case where the NHL got it right in my opinion.

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#2 Mike
May 11 2009, 02:31PM
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So Gregor you are saying we have a chance at Gustafsson?? A chance is all I need to hear...Make it happen Tambo...One year deal, with bonuses for wins, save % and rookie of the year and all rookie team. That should add up to close to $2.5 million...all good in my mind.

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#3 sittingatmydesk
May 11 2009, 02:34PM
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I dont think Mike Green is better than Souray, Green shouldnt even be on the Olympic team... Im not sure about the "monster"...how come noone talked about him early in his carrear, can he be the next Backstrom, yes!!!, roll te dice mt friends... the Oilers need to drop some of their contracts... way to many...

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#4 Chris
May 11 2009, 02:35PM
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Eric Staal looks awesome. No wonder Cole was glad to go back; between playing with Stall and returning to the Southeast, Cole was given just enough time to pad his stats before reaching UFA sataus. I'll readily admit that Cole isn't half as good as I thought he was last pre-season.

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#5 Mills
May 11 2009, 02:35PM
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Gregor don't you think you are overlooking Crosby for best Canadian in the playoffs?

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#6 kingsblade
May 11 2009, 02:48PM
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I'd like to see the league move to a more structured contract system like the NBA with set maximum dollar amounts based on how long a player has been in the league and maximum contract durations.

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#7 jeanshorts
May 11 2009, 02:53PM
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@ Mills: Crosby has played fine, but Staal has been a difference maker. He pretty much single handedly shut down Chara for 3 games. In my opinion he's definitely carried the weight for his team more so than Crosby has.

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#8 Dennis
May 11 2009, 03:05PM
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The Oil haven't made the playoffs in three years.

So, does anyone want to take a crack at writing or reporting about how silly it is that the club keeps bringing up the 50 contract thing as a roadblock to additional moves?

It's not like the stable's full of friggin' stallions or anything.

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#9 Mills
May 11 2009, 03:06PM
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@ jeanshorts: Sorry, I should have been clearer. I think Staal has been dominant up until yesterday, but I think Crosby has been better then Getzlaf.

Crosby has played better then "fine", though. If he didn't play as good as he did in game 1 and 2, Pittsburgh has no hope of coming back in the series.

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#10 Jonathan Willis
May 11 2009, 03:10PM
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Dennis wrote:

So, does anyone want to take a crack at writing or reporting about how silly it is that the club keeps bringing up the 50 contract thing as a roadblock to additional moves? It’s not like the stable’s full of friggin’ stallions or anything.

Bryan Pitton and Tim Sestito think you're a jerk, Dennis ;)

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#11 Librarian Mike
May 11 2009, 03:14PM
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The more I watch the playoffs, and guys like Zetterberg, Toews, Ovechkin, and Staal, the more I realize that Hemsky is a good player but far from great. Don't get me wrong, I love the guy, but there is no way a person can say with a straight face that he's in the same ballpark as these guys.

I wish he was.

On a semi-related note, I finally figured out who Hemsky reminds me of: Christian Ruuttu. Whaddya think, Jonathan Willis? I'll bet their stats match up.

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#12 Bryan Lerg
May 11 2009, 03:15PM
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Dennis,

I hate you.

Sincerly,

BL

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#13 Archaeologuy
May 11 2009, 03:15PM
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I saw that Ward might have a broken Orbital bone, good! Anyone who pulls a stunt like that deserves to have his face broken. And is it me or at the end of every game that's been played is there someone else saying a player needs to be suspended? Ward needs to be suspended for a punch during a fight, Ovechkin needs to be suspended for hitting Gonchar's knee after Gonchar pussed out and tried to get away from Ovenchkin's clean hit, blah blah blah. What bothers me the most about all this whinning is that people arent laughing at these guys when they complain. In fact, some of the MSM guys are right there saying "yes, i do believe so and so needs to be suspended". Ugh, at what point did the quest for Lord Stanley's cup start being a gentleman's pursuit?

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#14 Rick
May 11 2009, 03:15PM
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Re: Gustavsson

If the Oilers are convinced he is worth the risk and considering the window to negotiate an extension opens on July 1, couldn't the Oilers (or any other team) sign him to a one year deal but unofficially negotiate a multi year extension that could be signed on July 1?

As a side thought, if only a one year deal IS on the table it makes you wonder why the Stars seem to be the front runner for him. Turco will get the playing time this year which sucks for Gustavsson if he is banking on impressing the league to cash in a year down the road. Toughto cash in when you are only start 10 times during the year.

Re: The Wings and life time contracts

I wouldn't expect an alteration in the CBA. The players are getting what they are happy with and the Wings are obviously happy for the moment as well.

That said, the Wings look good doing it now but let's see what the wings are saying when a couple of these guys drop off a cliff half way through. Maybe it's not a fair comment but particularily with Euro players they seem to have trouble staying at the top of their games once they start to creep up on their mid thirties. Lidstom being an obvious exception.

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#15 Peter Pan
May 11 2009, 03:17PM
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To think many experts claimed the Oilers to the have the best young talent in West only one year ago. Not even close. The Hawks are for real and should be for a few more years. Deep, deep team.

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#16 Ogden Brother
May 11 2009, 03:17PM
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Great point re: Det and contract lengths, these seem to be coming the norm (I'll be theirs a few more this July 1). Teams can't (grossly) overpay with just $$$ anymore, so this is a natural loop hole to take advantage of.

Still not sure why you insist Bo is top 5, the guy is consistantly in the 25 range for scoring amoungst dmen and for a big body, he's not overly physical.

Does his actual defensive play really bump him up 20'ish spots in the top defender list?

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#17 Rick
May 11 2009, 03:20PM
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Dennis wrote:

The Oil haven’t made the playoffs in three years. So, does anyone want to take a crack at writing or reporting about how silly it is that the club keeps bringing up the 50 contract thing as a roadblock to additional moves? It’s not like the stable’s full of friggin’ stallions or anything.

What's to report?

Tambellini aknowledged that it was a problem and that they are looking to shed contracts moving forward.

If he goes into camp with 49 or 50 contracts again then there is something to report but otherwise it's kinda wait a see.

Is there really any purpose served to keep harping on Lowe's mistakes when he isn't calling the shots any more?

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#18 Ogden Brother
May 11 2009, 03:20PM
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Also, Re Det. If Hossa gets a 10+ year deal as well, it will probably be the final nail, capping the Wings domance to 2-3 more years.

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#19 Jason Gregor
May 11 2009, 03:20PM
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Mills wrote:

Gregor don’t you think you are overlooking Crosby for best Canadian in the playoffs?

Nope. Crosby wasn't close to Getzlaf in the first round in my mind. Of course Crosby is great, and he has been very good v. the Caps, but overall I'd still take Getzlaf to date. Either way, Staal, Getzlaf and Crosby should all be in Vancouver in 2010.

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#20 Mike
May 11 2009, 03:24PM
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As far as the 50 contracts go, can the Oilers not simply release a guy or buy out the remainder of his contract?

If they have a chance to sign Gustavsson, I'd hate to think of the interview the day after we lose him.

"We were committed to Glenn Fisher's contract."

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#21 Jason Gregor
May 11 2009, 03:28PM
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Rick wrote:

Re: Gustavsson If the Oilers are convinced he is worth the risk and considering the window to negotiate an extension opens on July 1, couldn’t the Oilers (or any other team) sign him to a one year deal but unofficially negotiate a multi year extension that could be signed on July 1? As a side thought, if only a one year deal IS on the table it makes you wonder why the Stars seem to be the front runner for him. Turco will get the playing time this year which sucks for Gustavsson if he is banking on impressing the league to cash in a year down the road. Toughto cash in when you are only start 10 times during the year.

NO one could sign him longer than a year, unless he wants to agree to a three-year ENTRY level deal, which limits what he can make in salary alone. The one-year entry level deal is a bonus for him, and possibly the team if he becomes a bust, because after one year he could sign his second contract for much more money.

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#22 Jason Gregor
May 11 2009, 03:34PM
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Mike wrote:

As far as the 50 contracts go, can the Oilers not simply release a guy or buy out the remainder of his contract? If they have a chance to sign Gustavsson, I’d hate to think of the interview the day after we lose him. “We were committed to Glenn Fisher’s contract.”

They have paid the contracts up to now the season is over, the contracts ends on June 30th...so nothing to buy out, unless they buy out a minor leaguer, and as I stated that isn't necessary with the open window to sign Gustavsson....

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#23 Rick
May 11 2009, 03:35PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

NO one could sign him longer than a year, unless he wants to agree to a three-year ENTRY level deal, which limits what he can make in salary alone. The one-year entry level deal is a bonus for him, and possibly the team if he becomes a bust, because after one year he could sign his second contract for much more money.

With all due respect you've missed my point.

I know no one can sign him to more than one year BUT unless I am mistaken once a player enters the final year of his contract the team is free to negotiate an extension with that player. That window for Gustavsson would start on July 1st.

What is stopping the team from promising him the extension now but making it official on July 1st when they are actually allowed to register it with the league.

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#24 Harlie
May 11 2009, 03:35PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Walker did have the suspension rescinded, but got a $2,500 fine for his punch on Ward. Here is what Walker said in a statement released by the Hurricanes. “Based on what was said on the ice as I was dropping my gloves, it was my understanding that I was engaged in an altercation.” A case where the NHL got it right in my opinion.

Pierre Maguire's call on the replay of the punch "Aaron Ward's not ready...he just stands there saying please sir can I have another?"

I like the Oliver Twist reference PM! :(

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#25 Rick
May 11 2009, 03:53PM
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Rick wrote:

BUT unless I am mistaken once a player enters the final year of his contract the team is free to negotiate an extension with that player. That window for Gustavsson would start on July 1st.

Just looked it up, I was mistaken.

The extension rule doesn't apply to entry level contracts, only multi year RFA contracts.

Carry on...

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#26 Jonathan Willis
May 11 2009, 04:03PM
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Mike wrote:

“We were committed to Glenn Fisher’s contract.”

I agree with your overall point, but in this case the Oilers were smart enough to sign Fisher to an AHL/ECHL deal, so he doesn't count against the 50-man limit.

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#27 Jason Gregor
May 11 2009, 04:04PM
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Rick wrote:

What is stopping the team from promising him the extension now but making it official on July 1st when they are actually allowed to register it with the league.

True...but what team would do that. Huge risk. Why not sign him for a year, he would still be an RFA next summer when the cap goes down. You could extend him in December after you've seen him play some games.

Those deals happen all the time, how else do they have 80 million dollar contracts signed at 12:20 a.m on July 1st...I love it when those get signed, but supposedly there was no prior talk between the agent and the team..haha

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#28 Jonathan Willis
May 11 2009, 04:10PM
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I wonder if those who thought Mike Green was a guaranteed top-five D-man in the league because of one good offensive season, still think that after watching him during the playoffs? I like Green, but if you think he is better than Bouwmeester you aren’t watching closely enough.

On the general point I'm not sure which of the two I'd take, but saying that Bouwmeester is better than Green because of twelve playoff games would be wrong. Judging any player on that short of a time span is wrong; for example, let's look at Bouwmeester's first 12 games of the season:

12GP - 0G - 3A - 3PTS, -2

Well, that really doesn't compare to Green's playoff record:

12GP - 1G - 8A - 9PTS, -2

It's a 12-game segment. It doesn't prove or disprove anything. Last year, Green scored seven points in seven playoff games - and that didn't prove or disprove anything either.

In other words, if one guy judges Green based on his play during the 68 games he played during the regular season and another guy judges him based on 12 playoff games, go with the guy who has seen him more.

Again, I'm not arguing that Green is neccessarily better than Bouwmeester career-wise, since I haven't put nearly enough time in to determine that, but saying that he's clearly overrated based on a 12-game stretch seems foolish.

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#29 Lofty
May 11 2009, 04:12PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Ovechkin needs to be suspended for hitting Gonchar’s knee after Gonchar pussed out and tried to get away from Ovenchkin’s clean hit, blah blah blah

Im sure Brian Marchmant could have made the same argument a few times. If you are responsible for your stick you should be responsible for your knee's.

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#30 Jonathan Willis
May 11 2009, 04:20PM
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Eric Staal is a special player. The more I watch him the more I find it hard to believe he won’t be on the Olympic team. Outside of Ryan Getzlaf he has been the best Canadian player in the playoffs. He could be the reason Joe Thornton doesn’t make the team, moreso than Thornton’s inability to lead his team to the Cup.

Staal's a hell of a player, alright. He's topped 30 goals for four years running and topped 40 twice in that span.

On the other hand, his incredible playoff eprformance has a lot to do with something unsustainable - his shooting percentage (19.1%). If Staal had been able to maintain that shooting percentage over this past season, he wouldn't have scored 40 goals, he would have scored 71. If he'd managed to maintain that pace over the past four seasons, he would have scored 50 goals each year - 238 goals over the four years, rather than 153 goals he did score.

Again, nothing against Staal who is a good player, but luck and a hot streak are a big part of the reason why he's looked so dominant.

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#31 B-Rad
May 11 2009, 04:22PM
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Does anyone recall if Tootoo got fined or anything, for one punching Staubitz? That was an identical play, where they looked at each other and knew what was gonna happen then "POW", the other guy forgets how fighting works...

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#32 Archaeologuy
May 11 2009, 04:29PM
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Lofty wrote:

Im sure Brian Marchmant could have made the same argument a few times.

Marchmant put his knee out to hurt guys all the time. Ovechkin never changed direction while trying to make that hit and he didnt stick his knee out. Gonchar, on the other hand, tried to jump out of the way like he just realised he was standing in the middle of the train tracks. If he had simply taken the hit then he would have been fine.

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#33 Jonathan Willis
May 11 2009, 04:30PM
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Librarian Mike wrote:

On a semi-related note, I finally figured out who Hemsky reminds me of: Christian Ruuttu. Whaddya think, Jonathan Willis? I’ll bet their stats match

Only superficially.

For starters, let's ignore the fact that Hemsky entered the NHL at a much younger age (which is in his favour, historically).

Then, let's also ignore the fact that Ruuttu declined sharply points-wise after his first two seasons (also in Hemsky's favour).

Ruuttu's Buffalo Sabres scored 280 and 283 goals in his first two years. At the same age, Hemsky's Edmonton Oilers scored 235 and 234 goals. That's a 17% difference; while Ruuttu was chipping in on less than a quarter of his teams goals, Ales Hemsky is chipping in on nearly 30%.

In other words, while the points are the same, to adjust for era you'd have to inflate Hemsky's point totals by the 17% difference in their respective teams' offense - which puts Hemsky easily clear of Ruuttu offensively.

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#34 Archaeologuy
May 11 2009, 04:35PM
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@ Jonathan Willis: Dont go supporting Hemsky around here Willis, you know it just angers the people who are upset at him for being the best player on the team. ;)

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#35 Librarian Mike
May 11 2009, 04:35PM
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@ Jonathan Willis:

Cool, thanks.

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#36 Jon
May 11 2009, 04:41PM
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Didn't they trade because CBC would have had a scheduling conflict with the Canucks game tonight?

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#37 Archaeologuy
May 11 2009, 04:44PM
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I just saw that Rick Tocchet was signed to a 3 year extension in Tampa Bay. The first thing that came to my mind was "Classy coach for a classy organization."

Oren Koules probably looked at his resume and was impressed that Gretzky was listed as a reference. He didnt notice that it was Janet Gretzky.

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#38 Rick
May 11 2009, 04:47PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Judging any player on that short of a time span is wrong; for example, let’s look at Bouwmeester’s first 12 games of the season: 12GP - 0G - 3A - 3PTS, -2

It's kinda here nor there (it certainly isn't on point)and I haven't looked too closely at all of Bouwmeester's seasons but I think he has tendancay to start slow year in and year out. Points wise that is.

Then down the stretch he ends up putting up crazy numbers to salvage the season.

It's one reason I would hate to see him here in Edmonton. By the end of November the fans would be running him outta town when in reality he is just doing what he does.

Again though, I haven't dug too deep, I just recall a couple years where I had him in my pool and as such ended up keeping an eye on him.

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#39 Jonathan Willis
May 11 2009, 04:49PM
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@ Rick:

Thanks, that's interesting. Sort of the opposite of Brian Savage.

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#40 Rick
May 11 2009, 04:50PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

True…but what team would do that.

My reasoning was that it would be a way for the Oilers to out bid another team, if they were convinced he was worth it.

But, I was wrong on the rule and the Oilers couldn't do it even if they wanted to so it's all irrelevant now.

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#41 Jason Gregor
May 11 2009, 04:56PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

On the general point I’m not sure which of the two I’d take, but saying that Bouwmeester is better than Green because of twelve playoff games would be wrong. Judging any player on that short of a time span is wrong; for example, let’s look at Bouwmeester’s first 12 games of the season: 12GP - 0G - 3A - 3PTS, -2

JW,

I wasn't saying it was because of the playoffs. My point was that many who fell in love with Green did so based solely on his 30+ goals this year. He is great offensively, but when he doesn't do that he isn't a great overall D-man.

And 12 playoff games will always carry more weight than the first 12 games of the regular season.

Jonathan Willis wrote:

Again, I’m not arguing that Green is neccessarily better than Bouwmeester career-wise, since I haven’t put nearly enough time in to determine that, but saying that he’s clearly overrated based on a 12-game stretch seems foolish.

Did I say he was overrated? No, I said he wasn't better than Bouwmeester beforehand, and now that people have had a chance to see Green play, rather than just look at his stats. Watching his overall game shows that while his game is good, it is not at the overall level of Bouwmeester. Foolish would be basing the argument all on stats without watching him play.

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#42 Jonathan Willis
May 11 2009, 05:03PM
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@ Jason Gregor:

Fair enough. I just read "I wonder if those who thought Mike Green was a guaranteed top-five D-man in the league because of one good offensive season, still think that after watching him during the playoffs?" as an argument that Green was overrated based on his playoff performance, rather than based on the fact that he's hardly a top-tier guy in the defensive zone.

Since that wasn't your contention, no worries.

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#43 Jason Gregor
May 11 2009, 05:08PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Again, nothing against Staal who is a good player, but luck and a hot streak are a big part of the reason why he’s looked so dominant.

Luck...hot streak... Yeah it is just luck he led the playoffs in scoring when the went to the Cup, and now it is just LUCK that he is producing again.

Ever think he is focusing more in crunch time. That is what is called a clutch performer. Far from luck.

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#44 Ogden Brother
May 11 2009, 05:10PM
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I guess the question should be: Is Bowmeester a top-tier guy in the defensive zone?

If a guys mid 20's offensively, and average physically, wouldn't he need to be top 2/3 deffensively to bump himself all the way up to top 5 all around?

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#45 Jonathan Willis
May 11 2009, 05:23PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Luck…hot streak… Yeah it is just luck he led the playoffs in scoring when the went to the Cup, and now it is just LUCK that he is producing again. Ever think he is focusing more in crunch time. That is what is called a clutch performer. Far from luck.

Right. He scored 9 goals in 25 playoff games in 2005-06; now he has 9 goals in 12 games in 2008-09.

That's luck. He's fine in the playoffs - never said he wasn't - but he can't keep scoring at the pace he is. I'm sure he's a "clutch guy" and all that (no sarcasm, I'm actually sure he is) but that doesn't translate into a 19.1 SH% all by itself. He's scoring at better than twice the pace he was when he won the Cup - and that tells me that luck and a hot streak have as much to do with it as anything.

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#46 Jonathan Willis
May 11 2009, 05:35PM
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@ Jason Gregor:

Incidentally, given that Staal had a whopping 2 even-strength goals in 25 games during the 2005-06 Cup run, does that mean that he wasn't a clutch performer then?

How about the fact that his 10.3 shooting percentage was actually a drop from the regular season? Did that mean that he wasn't "clutch"?

The fact of the matter is that luck has a hell of a lot to do with playoff performance - in point of fact, Scotty Bowman said the same thing. Because in a seven-game series, the bounces matter a lot.

Over the course of a season, one goal is pretty small - for the Oilers, 482 goals were scored one way or the other this year, meaning that one goal has a .002% effect on average on the course of the season. The effect of one goal in the playoffs is something else entirely.

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#47 Jason Gregor
May 11 2009, 06:09PM
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JW,

Why is shooting percentage the stat that defies how well he played in 2006 or his playing now? He led the leagues in scoring in the playoffs? Is that more luck than skill?

And there is more to shooting in the game of hockey, in case you haven't been watching. He passes very well, makes his teammates better, and he has been facing one of the best D-men in the league in Chara and so far he has won that battle.

Using shooting % as your argument as to why he isn't good just proves my point that you can always use a stat to back your point, even if it makes no sense.

He has 9 goals in 25 games in the 2006 playoffs on 87 shots. He has 9 goals with 47 shots in 12 games. He is shooting more now. He only had 3.5 shots a game in 2006, where now he is averaging 5.2 shots a game. Shoot more and he scores more it seems to me. I really don't care what his shooting percentage is. And I guarantee when they pick the Olympic team they won't look at shooting % to see who makes it. He is a proven performer in the playoffs. That is the point. Saying he can't continue to dominate is ridiculous. He dominates regardless of what his shooting percentage is.

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#48 Jonathan Willis
May 11 2009, 06:38PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Using shooting % as your argument as to why he isn’t good just proves my point that you can always use a stat to back your point, even if it makes no sense.

I didn't say he wasn't good; in point of fact I said he was very good. I used shoting percentage to show that his current goal-scoring rate is unsustainable.

And there is more to shooting in the game of hockey, in case you haven’t been watching. He passes very well, makes his teammates better, and he has been facing one of the best D-men in the league in Chara and so far he has won that battle.

Again; I never said he wasn't a very good player and his work against Chara is a good indication of that. As for passing, he's got three assists so far, so he isn't exactly lighting the world on fire in that department. And as far as making his teammates better, wasn't Erik Cole on his line to start the playoffs?

Saying he can’t continue to dominate is ridiculous. He dominates regardless of what his shooting percentage is.

Not nearly as ridiculous as suggesting he'll keep scoring 3 goals every 4 games.

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#49 Reggie
May 11 2009, 06:39PM
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@ kingsblade: I don't think all the limits are the right answer, but I do think they should outlaw the long duration contracts. My viewpoint is to see them move to a maximum 5 year deal. I believe Detroit is manipulating (within the rules of course), their cap number. It gives them more flexibility and my guess is most of the players will not be playing out the last 2-3 years of some of those contracts. When the salaries drop to 1 or 2 or 3 million a season, the Euro and KHL leagues can easily match and pay those salaries. This gives Euro players an nice reason to return home and play out their careers.

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#50 Jonathan Willis
May 11 2009, 06:39PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

He led the leagues in scoring in the playoffs?

Incidentally - leading the league in scoring in the playoffs is a misleading argument. How many teams played as many games as Carolina that year? Two. In other words, it's lots easier to lead the league in scoring when you're on one of two teams who go all the way.

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