Looking at Goals per Game...

Jason Gregor
May 25 2009 11:07AM

One of our readers, Homie, thought that PPG wasn’t an accurate enough assessment on a player’s offensive value, so I decided to do one on Goals Per Game. Homie felt that Rick Nash was more valuable than I stated, and that he would be a top five GPG guy. Since Nash has been in the league for six years, I used those years to determine who has been the best sniper during that time.

Keep in mind that players like Oveckin and Crosby haven’t been in the league for six year, while other like Sundin, Jagr and Sakic were in the twilight of their careers.

Sorry Homie, but Nash is still not a top-five goal scorer, in fact he isn’t even in the top ten. Goals are one dimension of offence, and while I deem them more important than assists, to be considered great you have to be efficient scoring and passing.

Nash averages 0.44 GPG, 0.36 APG and is a 0.80 PGP player. He isn’t a point-a-game player in this league, so he isn’t great. He is good, but not great.

Here is the Goals Per Game in the last six years:

gpg_table1

I also decided to look at the all-time top goal scorers in the history of the game and see what their GPG was. These are the guys who averaged over a goal every second game, excluding active players.

gpg_table2

Here are the rest of the players who have scored 500 or more career goals. Only 41 players have lit the lamp 500 times.

gpg_table3

The active players that are on the list include: Brendan Shanahan (656), Teemu Selanne (579), Mats Sundin (564), Mark Recchi (545), Mike Modano (543), Keith Tkachuk (525) and Jeremy Roenick (513).

It’s too bad that Bossy’s career ended so early. You wonder how many more goals he could have scored. For the record in Gretzky’s first ten years (774 GP) he scored 637 goals for a 0.82 GPG, and in Lemieux’s first ten he played 494 games, tallied 599 goals for a 0.82 GPG.

Right now only Ovechkin, Heatley, and Kovalchuk are on pace to be considered amongst the ELITE goal scorers. Time will tell if they can keep up their torrid GPG pace.

Ddf3e2ba09069c465299f3c416e43eae
One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
Avatar
#1 baggedmilk
May 25 2009, 11:20AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Gregor,

I know it has nothing to do with the article. (Nice stats posts lately by the way)

But if Colorado is going to pick up Roy as their GM and more specifically as a coach, shouldn't they be firing Granato first? I'm no scientist but I'm thinking that's a douche bag maneuver if I've ever seen one.

Avatar
#2 Ogden Brother
May 25 2009, 11:21AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Comparing goal scorers now vs all time is tough when you consider goals/game are 20% - 40% lower then they were 30 years ago.

Avatar
#3 Ogden Brother
May 25 2009, 11:23AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Suprised how high Crosby was.

Avatar
#4 Jason Gregor
May 25 2009, 11:34AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

baggedmilk wrote:

Gregor, I know it has nothing to do with the article. (Nice stats posts lately by the way) But if Colorado is going to pick up Roy as their GM and more specifically as a coach, shouldn’t they be firing Granato first? I’m no scientist but I’m thinking that’s a douche bag maneuver if I’ve ever seen one.

I'm not the biggest Tony Granato fan, but what is happening in Colorado is a joke. It sure looks like they are trying to hire a new coach, but until it is announced they won't can Granato. Clearly they don't want him, so let him go.

And if Granato accepts another demotion then the man is a marvel. It would mark the second time he was demoted from head coach to assistant or somewhere else in the organization. He must really love the Avs or just have no pride.

If they give Roy both roles that is an accident waiting to happen. You can't do both jobs effectively anymore.

Ogden Brother wrote:

Comparing goal scorers now vs all time is tough when you consider goals/game are 20% - 40% lower then they were 30 years ago.

Look at the top guys...Gretzky, Hull, Esposito, Richard...They were all from different eras. Great goal scorers will score regardless of the era. Look at Ovechkin's 0.67 it rates pretty very high. I know that number will come down as he gets older, but he is off to a great start.

Avatar
#5 OvenChicken8
May 25 2009, 11:35AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I'm surprised Ovechkin's pace is so much higher then everyone else. I would have thought Heatley and Kovalchuk would be much closer.

Avatar
#6 Ian
May 25 2009, 11:37AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Another great post Gregor. I can't believe Rick Vaive scored that often. I'm a die hard Leafs fan and I'm stunned his GPG was that high. I'm not sure it makes him a Hall of Famer, but at least he gets some valid consideration.

And I think Bossy was the greatest pure goal scorer I ever saw. You are right in wondering how many he might have scored. I think Gretzky was a better goal scorer, but Bossy was the purest if that makes any sense.

Avatar
#7 Ogden Brother
May 25 2009, 11:45AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Jason Gregor wrote: Ogden Brother wrote: Comparing goal scorers now vs all time is tough when you consider goals/game are 20% - 40% lower then they were 30 years ago. Look at the top guys…Gretzky, Hull, Esposito, Richard…They were all from different eras. Great goal scorers will score regardless of the era. Look at Ovechkin’s 0.67 it rates pretty very high. I know that number will come down as he gets older, but he is off to a great start.

I agree, but putting AO in the 80's and he'd likely have a couple 80+ goal seasons under his belt already.

Avatar
#8 Chris
May 25 2009, 11:54AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Let me be the first douche to point out the obvious: there are no Oilers in the top fifty. It would be nice if the Oilers scouting department (revamped under Lowe) had found even ONE player to crack that list; after all they have had nearly a decade to do so. I see at least two Ex-Oilers Barry Fraser drafted...

Avatar
#9 Ogden Brother
May 25 2009, 11:57AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Chris wrote:

Let me be the first douche to point out the obvious: there are no Oilers in the top fifty. It would be nice if the Oilers scouting department (revamped under Lowe) had found even ONE player to crack that list; after all they have had nearly a decade to do so. I see at least two Ex-Oilers Barry Fraser drafted…

How long has Lowe been GM? 8 years? How many of those guys were drafted in the last 8 years? Off the top of my head, looks like 16. How many were drafted outside of the top 5? 3 guys? 4 guys?

Avatar
#10 Mikey
May 25 2009, 12:00PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@ Chris: ~Hemsky will be there one day~

Avatar
#11 Chris
May 25 2009, 12:12PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@ Ogden Brother:

Excuses. Excuses. If the system was flush with guys who were likely to crack that list in the next five to six years I'd cut Lowe's crew more slack... The beauty of Predergast's gig is that it can take a decade before people catch on to the fact that you aren't doing that great a job. It's almost too bad they found Hemsky... or there would have already been a complete house cleaning.

It would be difficult to argue that Predergast is incompetent; given his record. However, it would be even more difficult to argue that he is the absolute best in the business. If the Oilers want to ever win a cup again: it's time Katz found, and hired the absoulute best in the business.

Avatar
#12 James
May 25 2009, 12:20PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Ogden Brother wrote:

How long has Lowe been GM? 8 years? How many of those guys were drafted in the last 8 years? Off the top of my head, looks like 16. How many were drafted outside of the top 5? 3 guys? 4 guys?

So should we expect Sam Gagner to be there in a few years? I sure hope so.

And guys drafted outside of top ten are in last 8 years are Cheechoo, Zetterberg, Semin, Roy, Perry, Boyes, Frolov, Cammalleri and Parise.

No GM can choose all of them obviously...but one would be nice.

Gregor what is Hemsky's GPG?

Avatar
#13 Peter Pan
May 25 2009, 12:23PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

One of favs ever - Patty LaFontaine. Like many others, a career that ended much too soon.

Avatar
#14 Jason Gregor
May 25 2009, 12:32PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

James wrote:

Gregor what is Hemsky’s GPG?

Hemsky has 93 in 421 games...0.22 Penner has 73 in 261 ...0.28 Horcoff has 120 in 560 ...0.21 Kotalik has 121 in 445 ...0.27 Cogliano has 36 in 164 ...0.22 Gagner has 29 in 155 ...0.19 O'Sullivan has 43 in 207 ...0.21 Nilsson has 26 in 192 ...0.14 Moreau has 136 in 787 ...0.17 Pisani has 76 in 362 ...0.21

I don't think you need any other Oiler forwads. Needless to say not great numbers, and right now Penner has the highest. Of course his 29 goal season helps that. But some sobering goal scoring numbers to say the least.

Avatar
#15 BUCK75
May 25 2009, 12:33PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@ Jason Gregor:

Wow - my head is spinning with all of these 'stats' posts lately.

Bottom line I think is with 30 teams in the league everyone places more emphasis on 'the guy' for each team. Your Nash example is perfect for the arguement.

War NHL contraction...

Avatar
#16 Jason Gregor
May 25 2009, 12:35PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

BUCK75 wrote:

@ Jason Gregor: Wow - my head is spinning with all of these ’stats’ posts lately. Bottom line I think is with 30 teams in the league everyone places more emphasis on ‘the guy’ for each team. Your Nash example is perfect for the arguement. War NHL contraction…

Don't worry Buck they are the exception rather than the rule. Some interesting numbers though.

Avatar
#17 Mikey
May 25 2009, 12:38PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@ Jason Gregor: Sobering numbers indeed. Those are awful. True reflection of the offensively challenged club we have here at the moment.

Avatar
#18 Mikey
May 25 2009, 12:38PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Jason Gregor wrote:

I don’t think you need any other Oiler forwads. Needless to say not great numbers, and right now Penner has the highest. Of course his 29 goal season helps that. But some sobering goal scoring numbers to say the least.

WTF..Nothing like putting a damper on my day... haha. You have just illustrated how badly we need a goal scorer. When you look at the Oilers numbers you just wrote, it makes it more obvious how lacking we are.

Can Gagner become a sniper? Eberle? Please someone...I love Hemmer but I just don't think he can be a regular 30 goal guy. I hope Im wrong. I'm not saying we trade him, but let's get a scorer, because it's obvious we don't have one.

Avatar
#19 Mikey
May 25 2009, 12:41PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

And how weird was it that there were two different MIKEY's writing posts at the same time...freaky...Mikey #2..

Avatar
#20 Mikey
May 25 2009, 12:48PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@ Mikey: Do you want to be #1 or #2?

Avatar
#21 Ogden Brother
May 25 2009, 12:52PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Chris wrote:

@ Ogden Brother: Excuses. Excuses. If the system was flush with guys who were likely to crack that list in the next five to six years I’d cut Lowe’s crew more slack… The beauty of Predergast’s gig is that it can take a decade before people catch on to the fact that you aren’t doing that great a job. It’s almost too bad they found Hemsky… or there would have already been a complete house cleaning. It would be difficult to argue that Predergast is incompetent; given his record. However, it would be even more difficult to argue that he is the absolute best in the business. If the Oilers want to ever win a cup again: it’s time Katz found, and hired the absoulute best in the business.

Excuse, reality, take your pick.

Avatar
#22 Ogden Brother
May 25 2009, 12:54PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

James wrote:

Ogden Brother wrote: How long has Lowe been GM? 8 years? How many of those guys were drafted in the last 8 years? Off the top of my head, looks like 16. How many were drafted outside of the top 5? 3 guys? 4 guys? So should we expect Sam Gagner to be there in a few years? I sure hope so. And guys drafted outside of top ten are in last 8 years are Cheechoo, Zetterberg, Semin, Roy, Perry, Boyes, Frolov, Cammalleri and Parise. No GM can choose all of them obviously…but one would be nice. Gregor what is Hemsky’s GPG?

I doubt it, I see him as more of a 25 - 30 goal 75 - 85 point guy.

Avatar
#23 Ogden Brother
May 25 2009, 12:56PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Jason Gregor wrote:

James wrote: Gregor what is Hemsky’s GPG? Hemsky has 93 in 421 games…0.22 Penner has 73 in 261 …0.28 Horcoff has 120 in 560 …0.21 Kotalik has 121 in 445 …0.27 Cogliano has 36 in 164 …0.22 Gagner has 29 in 155 …0.19 O’Sullivan has 43 in 207 …0.21 Nilsson has 26 in 192 …0.14 Moreau has 136 in 787 …0.17 Pisani has 76 in 362 …0.21 I don’t think you need any other Oiler forwads. Needless to say not great numbers, and right now Penner has the highest. Of course his 29 goal season helps that. But some sobering goal scoring numbers to say the least.

On the flip side of that, the team has been consistantly (fairly) in the upper end of middle of the pack for goal scoring in the conference. Does it really matter if the scoring is spread vs concentrated?

I've said it a few times, but it's the GAA that is keeping this team from moving up the ranks.

Avatar
#24 Chris
May 25 2009, 01:11PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@ Ogden Brother:

I don't want to spend all day tracking and referencing various scouting reports that read as noncommitally and vague as the daily horoscope; but IMO the the 2007 draft year will one day serve as the catalyst for change in the Oiler amateur scouting department. This tendency to be too cute at the draft table is especially evident in 07 when Predergast/MacGregor went WAY outside the box not once; but twice in the first round alone. Time will tell, but I suspect they will regret picking a big D-man who can't skate 15th overall, and a Junior A player from the BCHL who wants to be a scholar instead of a pro athelete 21st overall. Completely blowing a first round pick under the new CBA is very serious; Blowing TWO first round picks in ONE year could prove devestating. I figure there are around 10-15 players picked after Plante who are tracking well ahead of him in terms of development already... and Nash doesn't want to turn Pro.

Avatar
#25 Ogden Brother
May 25 2009, 01:17PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Chris wrote:

@ Ogden Brother: I don’t want to spend all day tracking and referencing various scouting reports that read as noncommitally and vague as the daily horoscope; but IMO the the 2007 draft year will one day serve as the catalyst for change in the Oiler amateur scouting department. This tendency to be too cute at the draft table is especially evident in 07 when Predergast/MacGregor went WAY outside the box not once; but twice in the first round alone. Time will tell, but I suspect they will regret picking a big D-man who can’t skate 15th overall, and a Junior A player from the BCHL who wants to be a scholar instead of a pro athelete 21st overall. Completely blowing a first round pick under the new CBA is very serious; Blowing TWO first round picks in ONE year could prove devestating. I figure there are around 10-15 players picked after Plante who are tracking well ahead of him in terms of development already… and Nash doesn’t want to turn Pro.

I think your expectations are way out of whack. Getting one top liner and one role player out of three first round picks is pretty solid.

The big blemish on the Oiler track record is 2003, if they would have pulled one of the handful of legit all-stars still available with that pick the team would be in a completly different position. Outside of that year the drafting has been average or better.

Avatar
#26 Librarian Mike
May 25 2009, 01:25PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

The greatest goalscorer I've ever seen is Super Mario. When he got the puck at the red line, you just knew he was going to walk in and score and there was nothing you could do about it.

Avatar
#27 Traktor
May 25 2009, 01:28PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I wonder what Nash's GPG would look like if he had two of the best passers in the game setting him up over his career in Savard and Spezza like Heatley did?

Avatar
#28 Chris
May 25 2009, 02:10PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Ogden Brother wrote:

The big blemish on the Oiler track record is 2003

Agreed; but there are some other blemishes like: Mikhnov, Niinimaki, Schremp, etc...

Ogden Brother wrote:

Outside of that year the drafting has been average or better.

Average or better; sounds kind of like a nice way of saying mediocre. I don't expect them to get every pick right: but it would be nice if they could find even ONE legit goal scorer every eight years or so... It's my pet theory that when wholesale changes are finally made in the amateur scouting dept; the debaucle of 2007 will be referenced alongside the debaucle of 2003. Only time will tell if I'm correct. Some of the signs are already there...

Avatar
#29 Ogden Brother
May 25 2009, 02:51PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Chris wrote:

Ogden Brother wrote: The big blemish on the Oiler track record is 2003 Agreed; but there are some other blemishes like: Mikhnov, Niinimaki, Schremp, etc… Ogden Brother wrote: Outside of that year the drafting has been average or better. Average or better; sounds kind of like a nice way of saying mediocre. I don’t expect them to get every pick right: but it would be nice if they could find even ONE legit goal scorer every eight years or so… It’s my pet theory that when wholesale changes are finally made in the amateur scouting dept; the debaucle of 2007 will be referenced alongside the debaucle of 2003. Only time will tell if I’m correct. Some of the signs are already there…

Thiers a pretty strong probability that Gagner will come out of the 07 class as the 2nd best pick. If that's the case I don't think many will focus on 15 and 21.

Avatar
#30 Chris
May 25 2009, 03:06PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Ogden Brother wrote:

Thiers a pretty strong probability that Gagner will come out of the 07 class as the 2nd best pick. If that’s the case I don’t think many will focus on 15 and 21

Many what? Fans? Taking Gagner was the safe pick. Probably 20 other teams would have grabbed Gagner at that position: not exactly a major coup by Predergast and company. If neither Plante, nor Nash develop into solid NHL'ers: the 07 draft will have to be considered a failure; particularly if numerous other players available at 15th overall go on to have solid careers.

Avatar
#31 smytty777
May 25 2009, 03:15PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Chris wrote:

It’s my pet theory that when wholesale changes are finally made in the amateur scouting dept; the debaucle of 2007 will be referenced alongside the debaucle of 2003. Only time will tell if I’m correct. Some of the signs are already there…

It seems very early to decide anything about the 2007 draft. The Oilers got a very good player in Gagner (currently the 2nd best player out of the draft) and Plante and Nash are at least headed in the right direction. Outside of Perron is there even another player drafted after 15 that has played an NHL game?

Given a couple more years you might be right, but I don't know what signs there are right now that 2007 was a bad draft year for the Oilers.

Avatar
#32 Ogden Brother
May 25 2009, 03:21PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Chris wrote:

Ogden Brother wrote: Thiers a pretty strong probability that Gagner will come out of the 07 class as the 2nd best pick. If that’s the case I don’t think many will focus on 15 and 21 Many what? Fans? Taking Gagner was the safe pick. Probably 20 other teams would have grabbed Gagner at that position: not exactly a major coup by Predergast and company. If neither Plante, nor Nash develop into solid NHL’ers: the 07 draft will have to be considered a failure; particularly if numerous other players available at 15th overall go on to have solid careers.

I know (or at least think) you are negative on purpose, but your expectations for mid to late 1st round draft picks are way to high.

To give a little bigger sample size, here's pick 14/15/16 from 1998 - 2005 (too early to judge later years)

Patrick Desrouche Mathiew Chionard Eric Chionard Jeff Wilson Scott Kelman Dave Tanabe Vaclav Nedrost Artym Kryokav Marcel Hossa Chuck Kobasew Igor Knysaz RJ Umberger Chris Higgen Jesse Niinimaki Jacob Klepsi Bret Seabrook Robert Nilsson Steve Bernie Devon Dubnyk Alexander Radulov Petri Nikolenian Sasha Pokuluk Ryan O'marra Alex Bournet

~Wow, what an impressive list of NHL'ers~

24 guys, one border-line allstar a solid second liner and a handfull of 2nd/3rd liner line guys come out of 24 picks.

I would not at all be suprised to see one of Plant/Nash turn into a Bernie caliber player, if they do that draft will be a smash success, even if they don't, it's not that bad consider typical success ratios.

Avatar
#33 Mikey #2
May 25 2009, 03:28PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Mikey wrote:

@ Mikey: Do you want to be #1 or #2?

I'll be Mikey #2...

Avatar
#34 Chris
May 25 2009, 03:51PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@ Ogden Brother:

Thanks. I'm not expecting a superstar just viable assets likely to play over 200 games... and I'm glad the Braintust descided not to think outside the box with the Gagner pick...

smytty777 wrote:

It seems very early to decide anything about the 2007 draft.

It is early and I don't have a crystal ball. I call it a pet theory; but based on current progress, it is a very real possibility that neither Nash nor Plante will play over 100 games in the NHL. Nash seems determined to screw around in the ivy leagues and will likely miss his window (also physically suspect), and Plante doesn't skate well enough to be a top pairing defender in the WESTERN Hockey League as a 19 year old; albeit on a deep team. If you read between the lines, neither guy is progressing well for FIRST round picks... Or we'd all be geeking out about them about right about now.

Avatar
#35 Ogden Brother
May 25 2009, 04:04PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Chris wrote:

@ Ogden Brother: Thanks. I’m not expecting a superstar just viable assets likely to play over 200 games… and I’m glad the Braintust descided not to think outside the box with the Gagner pick… smytty777 wrote: It seems very early to decide anything about the 2007 draft. It is early and I don’t have a crystal ball. I call it a pet theory; but based on current progress, it is a very real possibility that neither Nash nor Plante will play over 100 games in the NHL. Nash seems determined to screw around in the ivy leagues and will likely miss his window (also physically suspect), and Plante doesn’t skate well enough to be a top pairing defender in the WESTERN Hockey League as a 19 year old; albeit on a deep team. If you read between the lines, neither guy is progressing well for FIRST round picks… Or we’d all be geeking out about them about right about now.

Even looking for viable assets (so take out the one star in Seabrook) theirs still only 5 solid NHL talents their (21%) in Bernie/Higgens/Radulov/Umberger/Kobasew and another 3 bit players 12% in Nilsson/Tannabe/Hossa

So league wide it looks success ratios in that draft range are:

4% star 21% solid NHL'er 12% bit player

I'm sure their will be a few more guys that turn into at least consistent 2nd/3rd liners, but it should still give you an idea as to how low the bar really is drafting outside of the lotto.

Avatar
#36 Ender the Dragon
May 25 2009, 04:09PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Jason,

You made an interesting point about Bossy and what his numbers might have looked like had he played longer. With this breakdown and seeing the Russian Rocket in third place ahead of the Great One, I'm inclined to wonder the same thing about Bure.

Avatar
#37 Ogden Brother
May 25 2009, 04:15PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@ Chris:

And to go one step further from the orginal list of 50 top GPG players:

30% were top 3 draft picks

40% were top 5 draft picks

52% were top 10 draft picks

64% were top 15 draft picks

4% were undrafted

8% went in the second round

8% went in the 3rd round or later

Only 12% were taken in the 15 to 30 range which the Oillers typically drafts.

Oiler 1st round picks in the Lowe era (2001+)

13/15/22/14/25/25/6/15/21/22

So one pick in the sweet spot of the top 10 (and I'd bet that pick will be on the top 50 GPG list 6 years from now)

4 in the 11 - 15 slot (that has produced only 12% of the top 50 GPG players)

And 5 in the 16 - 30 range which produced another 12% of the top 50 GPG players.

Avatar
#38 myteammytown
May 25 2009, 04:38PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@ Ogden Brother:

another dramatic twist in the fateful google world we live in

Avatar
#39 J-Bird
May 25 2009, 04:47PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I agree with Chris, the drafting hasn't been stellar. Look at what Philly's done in the same time. Lots of later pic's that turned out. When's the last time Detroit Rock City had a 1st round pic?

That said, nobody batts 1.000%, but man, these guys are at best in the bottom half of the league in that department.

Avatar
#40 The Menace
May 25 2009, 04:48PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Looking at that first list - 3 out of the top 5 have been thrashers! They had Heatley and Kovalchuk from 2001-2004, then Hossa and Kovalchuk from 2005-2008. If the can have 3 out of the top 5 GPG over so many years, how have they fallen so flat during that period?

You could also say that if they didn't underperform, they wouldn't keep getting those great players. Look at teams like Chicago, Washington and Pittsburgh that have elite young players; they were absolute sewer dwellers for several years in order to get those picks. as fans, could we handle having a last place team for several years, but then enjoy some top-three draft picks? I'm sure not very many fans would have the patience (me included).

Avatar
#41 Ogden Brother
May 25 2009, 05:06PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

myteammytown wrote:

@ Ogden Brother: another dramatic twist in the fateful google world we live in

Haha - what can I day. Slow day.

Avatar
#42 Homie
May 25 2009, 05:48PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Gregs,

You missed my point in the original post. You basically said he was not an elite player and I don't agree. I know he isn't top 10 in the last 6 years collectively, put if we look at his standing in each of those years you can definitely see outstanding results other than one year. Especially for a guy who is still not 25 and plays in Columbus.

Goals per game ranking:

2003-2004: 1st 2005-2006: 9th 2006-2007: Fell off the map 2007-2008: 11th 2008-2009: 9th

I can't believe you think this guy just doesn't qualify as elite. He is money 35 to 45 goals a year. Not many other players can say that and are around 25 years old.

Also, I think that GPG does not give a true picture of a players importance, but is more accurate than PPG, which is diluted by a bunch of Tom Gilbert specials (second assists). Guys who score 30+ goals and less than 30 assists are infinitely more valuable than a guy with 15 goals and 45 assists - at least offensively.

Avatar
#43 Homie
May 25 2009, 06:01PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Also, the breakline between great and elite is pretty subjective. I don't think Nash is a great goal scorer, that belongs to the likes of Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, etc. But he is definitely an elite goal scorer that I would trade anyone on the Oilers for in any sort of package, which I can't imagine will happen, but maybe they can throw a boatload of money at him next summer instead of some 30+ year old.

Avatar
#44 Chris
May 25 2009, 06:35PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@ Ogden Brother:

I never said my expectations were reasonable: I EXPECT the Oiler Organization to win another cup! In order to do this; the drafting will have to be exceptional; not average, or slightly above average. Average teams don't accomplish squat, and average management leads to average teams. It was exceptional Oiler drafting during the first three years that lead to a dynasty; and it will take exceptional drafting to get this organization out of the current mess it is in. The Salary Cap does not apply to your management team; so why not headhunt the ABSOLUTE best amateur scouts from accross the league... Prendergast and company have had thier chance.

Avatar
#45 Jason Gregor
May 25 2009, 09:04PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Homie wrote:

Also, the breakline between great and elite is pretty subjective. I don’t think Nash is a great goal scorer, that belongs to the likes of Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, etc. But he is definitely an elite goal scorer that I would trade anyone on the Oilers for in any sort of package, which I can’t imagine will happen, but maybe they can throw a boatload of money at him next summer instead of some 30+ year old.

I would say Elite is ranked higher than great. I really think that great gets thrown around way too often. For my money a great player has to be at least a point a game guy, unless he is a D-man.

The Elite guys are 1.20 PPG. I like Nash and I could put him in the bottom rung of great, but he isn't elite right now and I don't think he will ever be elite.

He will need to be a 1.20 PPG for the next six years just to become a 1.00 PPG player in his career and I think that will be near impossible.

I'd take Nash on my team don't get me wrong, but his stats don't measure up to the true elite players. It was a bit surprising that he was that far off to be honest.

Ender the Dragon wrote:

Jason, You made an interesting point about Bossy and what his numbers might have looked like had he played longer. With this breakdown and seeing the Russian Rocket in third place ahead of the Great One, I’m inclined to wonder the same thing about Bure.

Bure was unreal as a player, and will be in the Hall of Fame soon. He, like every player, would have seen his GPG diminish a bit in the later years of his career, but if he stayed a bit healthy I bet he would have been at least a 600 goal scorer. He was lightning fast and one of the most exciting players I've ever seen.

Avatar
#46 Archaeologuy
May 25 2009, 09:27PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@ Jason Gregor: The Bure knees were almost as tragic as the Lindros Brains, or Forsberg's feet. The fact that some of these guys managed to be so dominant despite their bodies is amazing.

I dont think Lindros belongs in the same category as the other 2 guys I mentioned, but the "what if" game is fun to play anyway.

Avatar
#47 Librarian Mike
May 25 2009, 09:35PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@ Archaeologuy:

Consider how many points Lemieux would have gotten if he was healthy. He wouldn't have the assists total, but I'm convinced he would have had over 900 goals. I guess we'll never know.

And then of course, there's Bobby Orr's knees...

Avatar
#48 kingsblade
May 25 2009, 09:58PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Jason Gregor wrote:

Bure was unreal as a player, and will be in the Hall of Fame soon. He, like every player, would have seen his GPG diminish a bit in the later years of his career, but if he stayed a bit healthy I bet he would have been at least a 600 goal scorer. He was lightning fast and one of the most exciting players I’ve ever seen.

You got that right...Valeri Bure was an all time great...

Avatar
#49 Homie
May 26 2009, 01:23AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Jason Gregor wrote:

I would say Elite is ranked higher than great. I really think that great gets thrown around way too often. For my money a great player has to be at least a point a game guy, unless he is a D-man. The Elite guys are 1.20 PPG. I like Nash and I could put him in the bottom rung of great, but he isn’t elite right now and I don’t think he will ever be elite. He will need to be a 1.20 PPG for the next six years just to become a 1.00 PPG player in his career and I think that will be near impossible. I’d take Nash on my team don’t get me wrong, but his stats don’t measure up to the true elite players. It was a bit surprising that he was that far off to be honest.

Well, there was the problem. I always thought great was better than elite. No matter.

Avatar
#50 kingsblade
May 26 2009, 01:32AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Homie wrote:

Well, there was the problem. I always thought great was better than elite. No matter.

Until I started reading this site I though everyone ranked it that way as well.

Comments are closed for this article.