What would you do for a Klondike Bar?

Jason Gregor
June 11 2009 09:54PM

Remember that jingle? This commercial illustrates just how easy it could be… If life was only this easy, imagine what your lady friend would do if you cleared the whole table??? Dare to dream boys, dare to dream. Of course remember once you set that precedent then you’ll be expected to do it again. So weigh your options. What would you do for Heatley Bar? That is the question many teams will ponder for the next three weeks, since I expect the Sens to trade the former Calgary Canuck before his $4 million signing bonus is due on July 1st. Oiler fans what would you give up for Heatley? While you ponder that, can you name the last Oiler to score 40 goals? (Answer at end of article). I bet many of you can’t recall the last Oiler to pot 40, and it’s doubtful you’ll remember the year. Hell, some of you were still in diapers. Yesterday I had Rob Daum, Perry Pearn and Clare Drake in studio. Daum had a great point about goal scoring. “It can change the outcome of a game more than any other element. It boosts your team, deflates the other, and can alter the entire game in a moment.” The Oilers haven’t had anyone who can do that with regularity in a long time, and it is clear that their owner recognizes that. I’ve been told that Daryl Katz is prepared to do whatever it takes to try and land Heatley. He has given Steve Tambellini the green light to put together a package that will ensure Bryan Murray doesn’t overlook them. That doesn’t mean he will grossly overpay for Heatley, rather, it seems that he would be willing to hide a salary in the minors come October if that’s what it takes. Let’s just clarify that it won’t be Horcoff or Penner, because that is too big a price to pay in the minors, plus putting either player there makes no sense. Basically the blessing is there for Tambellini not to worry about where everyone will fit when acquiring Heatley. It makes the GM’s job much easier if the owner gives him that sort of leeway. The Oilers are also very interested in trying to land Jay Bouwmeester. Could they land both? Highly unlikely because the odds of trading for a top-three goal scorer and signing a top-ten D-man in the span of ten days are near impossible, but Katz is willing to pull out all the stops to ensure they get one. Bouwmeester won’t cost any assets, but I’d still take Heatley over him right now. The Oilers have depth on the backend, but their scoring pool is thinner than Nicole Ritchie. You can argue that Heatley is a one-trick pony, but he is damn good at his one trick. He scores goals and he does it well. The Oilers sign him and you can mark him down for 40 goals. They don’t have anyone who is a sure bet to even score 30 right now. In the past four years he has scored 180 goals, 362 points and was a +82. Horcoff and Hemsky have combined for 151 goals in the same span. He has more career PP goals (99) than every Oiler has career goals, excluding Horcoff (120) and Moreau (136). Some argue he just finished an off year with 39 goals, but that still put him tied for 9th in the league and only one back of being tied for 5th. An off year for Heatley is a career year for 95% of the other players in the league. I don’t think it is trade for Heatley at any cost, because if you deal Hemsky that doesn’t leave Heatley much to play with, but every other player should be on the table. Regardless of who it will cost, the fact Katz has given his GM his blessing to make it happen, means the Oilers are not just in the mix, they might end up stirring the drink. ANSWER: Petr Klima was the last Oiler to score 40 when he potted 40 in 1990/1991. Here are the years the Oilers had a 30-goal man since Garbage Pail (Klima) potted 40: Smyth... 36... 2006 Comrie... 33... 2002 Smyth... 31... 2001 Guerin... 30... 1999 Smyth... 39 and Kovalenko 32... 1997 Ciger... 31... 1996 Arnott... 33... 1994 Klima... 32... 1993 Damphousse 38, and Murphy 35... 1992. Oilers had eight 20-goal scorers that year; Simpson 24, Mellanby 23, Klima 21, Nicholls 20, Buchberger 20 and Semenov 20.

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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#51 Ogden Brother
June 12 2009, 08:37AM
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myteammytown wrote:

@ speeds: i would agree that 30 is probably when the production starts to slide. the rapid decline generally doesnt happen until 35ish though. heatley, even for say 2 more prime years plus 3 years slowly declining, is still going to put up decent numbers. will he be worth the $$$$$ the last year or 2 of his deal? no, probably not. But, 40 40 35 32 30 still looks pretty good on a team that cant score goals

Arg, beat me to it.

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#52 Hockey Gods
June 12 2009, 08:37AM
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misfit wrote:

For $7.5M a season, I’d like a guy who can do more than one thing,

But the one thing he does well is THE most important aspect to winning hockey games, he scores goals. Considering last year the Oilers leading goal scorer had a whopping 23 goals and was a defenceman to boot, we need a bonafide goal scorer. 7.5 is a lot of cash, but what would you pay for Kovalchuk or Hossa or Ovechkin, likely the same amount or more. I say do what it takes to get him.

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#53 Archaeologuy
June 12 2009, 08:42AM
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@ BUCK75: 4 roster players? Thats pretty steep. I really wonder how many teams can afford the 7.5 million dollar price tag AND can offer the Sens a package that fits their needs.

I am very intrigued as to what the Sens get for Heatley.

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#54 Archaeologuy
June 12 2009, 08:45AM
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Hemmertime wrote:

Oilers with Heatley: 4 players over 5 mil per year, 2 over 3 mil (assuming Gilbert a part of deal, add 1 more of Greb gets 3+) Detroit Currently: 4 players over 6 mil per year, 3 over 3 mil I can see very easily how you can build a playoff performer with that many contracts

Uh, the guys the Wings pay that much money to actually perform.

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#55 yo
June 12 2009, 08:46AM
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Jason - It's probably a stretch but with the departure of Peeters could the Oil be thinking of re-visiting Garon. I believe he's a free agent.

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#56 Ender the Dragon
June 12 2009, 08:52AM
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Darn it! I Hadn't seen anything on here about Peeters yet and wanted to 'beak' the news (on the Nation at least). Yo just beat me to it. :(

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#57 charlieangels
June 12 2009, 08:53AM
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I would think with Peters gone, Garon may come back. No secret Peters is a stand up goalie coach and we don't really have many stand up goalies with the exception of that Polish guy that MIGHT MAKE it into the ECHL.

I didn't think MacT would go to the KHL but money does interesting things.

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#58 Ender the Dragon
June 12 2009, 08:54AM
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*break the news . . .

[mumbles something about edit buttons under his breath]

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#59 Hemmertime
June 12 2009, 09:08AM
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@ Archaeologuy: Ya, the guys the wings pay perform. But the only one not deserving of 5 mil plus on the Oilers is Horcoff, Souray performed last year. Visnovsky is worth the money. Adding Heatley would be our 4th over 5 mil (and FIRST over 6). Personally, Id take Visnovsky over Rafalski, Heatley vs Hossa is debatable - Ill take the natural LW for Oilers. Souray vs Lidstrom - Lidstrom is a god amongst men on D- but for almost 2 mil more and being 38 years old Souray looks real good... but I concede Id take Lidstrom. Datsyuk over Horc is hands down.

Granted WIngs had Zetterberg for under 4 though. Im not saying I wouldnt rather have their top 4, just saying that you can win paying 4 people 6 mil - hell I think you almost need to, or have 1-2 players that are underpaid and should be making 6 mil (Malkin, Zetterberg).

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#60 Archaeologuy
June 12 2009, 09:10AM
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@ Hemmertime: other than Horc, i think the problem (for me) falls in between the 3-5 million dollar range of non performers.

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#61 scorcoff hemmercules
June 12 2009, 09:11AM
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I broke the Peters news on here the other day but I don't believe anyone responded to it. I think Garon is done here regardless, were either going with Roli/JDD or a better goalie than Garon IMO.

On the Heatly subject, he signs a huge contract to remain in Ottawa and wants out one year later, sounds like a Pronger move to me. Whats stopping him from doing the same thing to us??? I'm not saying we shouldn't pursue him but the last thing we need is another major player jumping ship on us again.

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#62 Mike Krushelnyski
June 12 2009, 09:22AM
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What's with people preferring Gaborik over Heatley? Gaborik is constantly injured for long stretches and isn't as productive as Heatley even when he is healthy. Am I missing something here?

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#63 Hemmertime
June 12 2009, 09:23AM
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@ Archaeologuy: 3-5 mil range next season: Penner, Hemsky, Osully (2.95), Gilbert, Grebeshkov?

Why dont you just come out and say you hate Penner like the rest of us? lol. Altho Osully didnt do much to please in his time here Ill let it slide for now. The Daddy beat me types probably take longer to get settled. I think most of our bad contracts under 3 mil. Staios, Pisani, Moreau, Nilsson. Each overpaid by almost a mil. Move/Waive Nilsson, Staios, and Moreau. Play JF Jacques (spelling?), Putolny, and Peckham in their places, and you freed up about 5 million in salary after paying replacement. Thats almost enough to pay JBo right there while not hurting us too much

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#64 GSC
June 12 2009, 09:27AM
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This is what I've been saying all along...you can't overestimate the value of an elite scorer to a team. We haven't had such a scorer probably since Doug Weight, Ryan Smyth, and Bill Guerin were all on the 1st line prior to Guerin's trade to Boston. That Oiler team was fantastic for those 21 games before that trade.

The Oilers haven't been that potent since.

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#65 Robin Brownlee
June 12 2009, 09:28AM
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scorcoff hemmercules wrote:

I broke the Peters news on here the other day but I don’t believe anyone responded to it. I think Garon is done here regardless, were either going with Roli/JDD or a better goalie than Garon IMO.

Did you? Please list the item, date an comment number or link to it.

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#66 Colin
June 12 2009, 09:37AM
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@ JG:

Your title totally reminds me of the family guy episode where they're doing one of the commercials and the narrator asks: "would you kill a person"

So who does the bus need to roll over to land Heatley? I'm sure someone would do it............

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#67 RossCreek
June 12 2009, 09:37AM
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I'd suggest that the Sens may want 3 roster players back IF they aren't getting anyone close to Heatley's level back. They need a pmd, they'll need a top 6 forward, and they didn't exactly have scoring depth last year, so I'd guess they may want a 2nd potential top 6 forward or a gritty veteran 3rd liner with character. Gilbert, Cogliano, Nilsson, Moreau & a 2nd for Heatley & Kelly. Ottawa replaces Neil, dumps Kelly's contract (they already have a 3rd line center in Fisher), adds a pmd & a good, young, cheap forward and Nilsson becomes the wildcard. Or see if Ottawa would consider swapping Horcoff and Fisher in the deal. They may even be better fits in their new homes. Fisher comes to Edmonton as the 3rd line center everyone thinks Horcoff is and Ottawa gets the 2nd line center they wish Fisher could be. Just a thought.

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#68 Archaeologuy
June 12 2009, 09:39AM
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@ Hemmertime: I also included Cole and Roli into that range. Cole didnt perform like expected. Roli ended up earning his money, but Cole never did.

And I like Penner, but he's not worth 4 mill.

Even though 2 mill is the league average, it doesnt mean that players making 2 million need to be average...or worse.

you start counting the amount of money that was being over paid to a few guys and it adds up. 1 mill to Cole, 1 mill to Horc, 1 mill to Penner, 1 mill to Pisani, 1 mill to Staios; thats 5 million that could almost pay for Jay Bo/Komisarek/Some other UFA or top line player.

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#69 Archaeologuy
June 12 2009, 09:41AM
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Robin Brownlee wrote:

scorcoff hemmercules wrote: I broke the Peters news on here the other day but I don’t believe anyone responded to it. I think Garon is done here regardless, were either going with Roli/JDD or a better goalie than Garon IMO. Did you? Please list the item, date an comment number or link to it.

He did on post 86 of Willis' scavenging the internet article.

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#70 Ogden Brother
June 12 2009, 09:43AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

@ Hemmertime: I also included Cole and Roli into that range. Cole didnt perform like expected. Roli ended up earning his money, but Cole never did. And I like Penner, but he’s not worth 4 mill. Even though 2 mill is the league average, it doesnt mean that players making 2 million need to be average…or worse. you start counting the amount of money that was being over paid to a few guys and it adds up. 1 mill to Cole, 1 mill to Horc, 1 mill to Penner, 1 mill to Pisani, 1 mill to Staios; thats 5 million that could almost pay for Jay Bo/Komisarek/Some other UFA or top line player.

Did you miss

"Basically the blessing is there for Tambellini not to worry about where everyone will fit when acquiring Heatley. It makes the GM’s job much easier if the owner gives him that sort of leeway."

For all intent and purposes the Oil are now dealing with a soft cap.

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#71 Archaeologuy
June 12 2009, 09:50AM
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@ Ogden Brother: No i caught that. I like it. It will set the precedent for putting Horc in the minors in 3 years time if he cant pull his crap together and start playing like he can.

It doesnt change the fact that overpaying a little bit to a lot of guys has brought the Oilers closer to the Cap than they should be based on skill level and performance.

And No, there isnt a bonus for being under the Cap, but having no chance of getting better players (without friggin and jiggin with the rules) because the team bet the Farm on Pisani's '06 playoff performance and Penner's development isnt a good thing.

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#72 Sandra Blood
June 12 2009, 09:50AM
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Peeters being fired is like I won the Lottery, WOOHOO, about time some one with balls is running the organization. I say bring in Billy Ranford or Fuhrsy who will be let go in the desert and we have all the tools to get this team in the playoffs. Desjarlais will benifit more. He may be the "Varlomov?" we are looking for that wasn't given a chance to play because of Roli Poli Olie.

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#73 Jonathan Willis
June 12 2009, 09:51AM
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Here's what I wrote about Peeters when Matheson broke the news; with all the Heatley stuff on here (and that clearly being where the interest was) this kind of got moved to the sidelines.

I think Rollie Melanson should be considered as the replacement; Montreal's been one of the best teams in the league at developing tenders during his time there.

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#74 Sandra Blood
June 12 2009, 09:53AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Here’s what I wrote about Peeters when Matheson broke the news; with all the Heatley stuff on here (and that clearly being where the interest was) this kind of got moved to the sidelines. I think Rollie Melanson should be considered as the replacement; Montreal’s been one of the best teams in the league at developing tenders during his time there.

and Price? he regressed big time under Melanson.

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#75 Ogden Brother
June 12 2009, 09:59AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

@ Ogden Brother: No i caught that. I like it. It will set the precedent for putting Horc in the minors in 3 years time if he cant pull his crap together and start playing like he can. It doesnt change the fact that overpaying a little bit to a lot of guys has brought the Oilers closer to the Cap than they should be based on skill level and performance. And No, there isnt a bonus for being under the Cap, but having no chance of getting better players (without friggin and jiggin with the rules) because the team bet the Farm on Pisani’s ‘06 playoff performance and Penner’s development isnt a good thing.

*Face palm*

But if the team is willing to frig and jig with the rules, it's irrelavant.

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#76 gord
June 12 2009, 10:03AM
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Robin Brownlee wrote:

scorcoff hemmercules wrote: I broke the Peters news on here the other day but I don’t believe anyone responded to it. I think Garon is done here regardless, were either going with Roli/JDD or a better goalie than Garon IMO. Did you? Please list the item, date an comment number or link to it.

Bitter Brownlee?

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#77 Archaeologuy
June 12 2009, 10:04AM
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@ Ogden Brother: *face palm*

But that still doesnt make overpaying players to the point where the only option moving forward is to delete them from the roster without any return a good thing. Yeah, cut your losses and move on if you must, but it should be emberrassing to a team to force an NHL talent in the minors because they cant properly assess player values.

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#78 Mike Krushelnyski
June 12 2009, 10:05AM
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Friggin' and jiggin? Sounds like last St. Patty's day...

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#79 Milli
June 12 2009, 10:08AM
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Does anyone get the sense that Tambo is a really good GM? Or, is it just because he dosn't say much? I don't know, but I sure like the little bit that he does say, I think he knows the kind of team that he needs to build, and I love to hear the DKatz say do whatever it takes. It'd be a crazy sweet day if we are finally able to pull off a bigtime deal, like the day we inked Prongs and peca (but i'll hope it works out better this time). Better as in we win game 7, tough to think about today...... As for gaborik, I'd never sign him, he's great when he plays, but I think he'd ruin your team chemistry. Guys would find that magic with him, then he's gone for 20 games. He's back, team looks great, then..... If he was gonna be healthy, then ya, he'd be the guy, BUT

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#80 Ogden Brother
June 12 2009, 10:19AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

@ Ogden Brother: *face palm* But that still doesnt make overpaying players to the point where the only option moving forward is to delete them from the roster without any return a good thing. Yeah, cut your losses and move on if you must, but it should be emberrassing to a team to force an NHL talent in the minors because they cant properly assess player values.

Guess where the team finished for actual payroll and cap hit at the end of the year.

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#81 Sandra Blood
June 12 2009, 10:22AM
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Will Garon get his Stanley Cup ring before Roli? I sure hope so. Conks doesn't deserve it.charlieangels wrote:

I would think with Peters gone, Garon may come back. No secret Peters is a stand up goalie coach and we don’t really have many stand up goalies with the exception of that Polish guy that MIGHT MAKE it into the ECHL. I didn’t think MacT would go to the KHL but money does interesting things.
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#82 Archaeologuy
June 12 2009, 10:26AM
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@ Ogden Brother: nhlscap has it list at almost 54 million in salary to date. 2.7 mill away from the limit. What's your number? I'd be happy to stop using that Eklund endorsed site.

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#83 Alex Selivanov
June 12 2009, 10:26AM
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Friigin & jigging with the rules, letting go of salary for nothing, whatever has to be done to correct past mistakes and move forward.

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#84 Ogden Brother
June 12 2009, 10:28AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

@ Ogden Brother: nhlscap has it list at almost 54 million in salary to date. 2.7 mill away from the limit. What’s your number? I’d be happy to stop using that Eklund endorsed site.

Final # at NHL caps put the team 22nd for money spent and 22nd for cap hit. Team finished 21st.

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#85 Archaeologuy
June 12 2009, 10:43AM
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@ Ogden Brother: nhlscap has them at 17th in salary spent, but that number is absolutely meaningless.

Where they rank doesnt matter at all. It isnt a race. Its a business. The only number that matters at the end of the day is how much Cap space you have to make your team better with. They have 46.945 designated to 18 guys next year. No goalie, No Grebeshkov, No 1st line LW, No 3rd line Checking C.

What place the Oilers came in for money spent compared to the other teams doesnt mean a thing.

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#86 Harlie
June 12 2009, 10:46AM
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I wonder if my signed Ottawa Heatley jersey will be worth more or less now that he is changing teams?

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#87 Jason Gregor
June 12 2009, 10:47AM
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speeds wrote:

Jagr - 5 of his 6 40+ goal seasons by 29 Hejduk - 4 of his 35 goal seasons by 28 Amonte - all 3 30 goal seasons by 30 Nolan - all 6 30 goal seasons by 30 Kariya - all 4-35 goal seasons by 28 Yashin - both 40 goal seasons by 28, all 4-30 goal seasons before 30 Tkachuk - all 4-40 goal seasons by 28, but did have 3 30 goal seasons from 30-32 Bondra peaked later Selanne’s had 4 of his 6 40+ goal seasons by 30, but did have a couple 40 goal seasons way later Leclair had his 5 40+ goal season from 26-31 Shanahan had 4 of his 6 40+ goal seasons by 28, 1 at 31 and one later at 37 I’m sure there are more examples both ways, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Heatley’s best goal scoring days are behind him.

And Jagr did have a 54 goal, 123 point season at the age of 34 and a 30 goal 96 point season at 35...I'd take that.

Joe Sakic had a 29 and 28 goal seasons at the age of 22 and 24...and then had seasons of 33, 32 and 36 at the age of 34, 35 and 36.

Mike Gartner had seasons of 49,40 and 45 and the age of 32, 33 and 34.

I think Heatley is more in the category of the guys I mentioned, than Nolan, Amonte and Hejduk. Heatley is an elite goal scorer, those three aren't.

I'd expect him to decline a bit, but after his rookie year, the five full seasons he had he has averaged 44.6 goals. If he drops to 35 in a few years, that he still way better than anyone the Oilers have and that would still have him in the top 20 goal scorers in the league.

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#88 Jason Gregor
June 12 2009, 10:48AM
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yo wrote:

Jason - It’s probably a stretch but with the departure of Peeters could the Oil be thinking of re-visiting Garon. I believe he’s a free agent.

No chance. They didn't like his mental toughness.

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#89 Ogden Brother
June 12 2009, 10:52AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

@ Ogden Brother: nhlscap has them at 17th in salary spent, but that number is absolutely meaningless. Where they rank doesnt matter at all. It isnt a race. Its a business. The only number that matters at the end of the day is how much Cap space you have to make your team better with. They have 46.945 designated to 18 guys next year. No goalie, No Grebeshkov, No 1st line LW, No 3rd line Checking C. What place the Oilers came in for money spent compared to the other teams doesnt mean a thing.

Of course it does, you said:

"It doesnt change the fact that overpaying a little bit to a lot of guys has brought the Oilers closer to the Cap than they should be based on skill level and performance."

Which implies that the $$ spent aren't translating to position slotted in final standings. Which is incorrect.

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#90 Al
June 12 2009, 11:01AM
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Gregor,

What is this chugging contest you are having today on your show? Where and when? My buddy is good at that.

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#91 myteammytown
June 12 2009, 11:03AM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

Arg, beat me to it.

MTMT-----1 Zom....errr...Ogden-------- 0

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#92 speeds
June 12 2009, 11:11AM
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@ myteammytown @ ogden brother:

So what are you fine with giving up for a guy you say could only be a 35 goal scorer/year for 5 years? Even many of those in favor of acquiring Heatley say something like "He's a bit one dimensional, but the dimension is so great", but what happens when that dimension starts getting less great? While the two of you may realize, and be fine with, a Heatley with lower than the 45 goals per season production Heatley has had since the lockout, I think many are expecting that to continue.

It's possible that it may, but it's no given and IMO it's no more, or not much more, likely that him averaging 35 over the next 5 years given the way goal scorers tend to age. I'm certainly not suggesting he'll fall off the cliff, but how far does any one dimensional player need to fall in that dimension to not be worth his current salary?

You're fine with giving up a 25 year old defenceman with only 2 NHL seasons under his belt, probably still improving (Gilbert), a cheap 22 year old F in Cogliano who should also still be improving, and a 10th OV draft pick that is a great bet to be on the NHL roster within two years at a ~1.3 mil cap hit for 3 years, a player with potential to be a top 6 playerr as soon as he's in the NHL and some much smaller superstar potential?

All for 7.5 mil cap hit Heatley?

Earlier I had suggested Gilbert and O'Sullivan as the most I would offer, with it being even pushing it a bit. The more I think about it, the more I think that's an overpay.

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#93 Antony Ta
June 12 2009, 11:12AM
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Hockey Gods wrote:

misfit wrote: For $7.5M a season, I’d like a guy who can do more than one thing, But the one thing he does well is THE most important aspect to winning hockey games, he scores goals. Considering last year the Oilers leading goal scorer had a whopping 23 goals and was a defenceman to boot, we need a bonafide goal scorer. 7.5 is a lot of cash, but what would you pay for Kovalchuk or Hossa or Ovechkin, likely the same amount or more. I say do what it takes to get him.

Remember when Katz was going to offer 8+ million to Marian Hossa? I think 7.5 M for Heatley looks relatively better by comparison.

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#94 Archaeologuy
June 12 2009, 11:15AM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

Of course it does, you said: “It doesnt change the fact that overpaying a little bit to a lot of guys has brought the Oilers closer to the Cap than they should be based on skill level and performance.” Which implies that the $$ spent aren’t translating to position slotted in final standings. Which is incorrect.

Really? They spent to within 3 million of the Cap, other teams that spent like that were in the playoffs. Are the Oilers really just one 3 million dollar player away from contending for the Cup? NO.

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#95 Ogden Brother
June 12 2009, 11:23AM
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speeds wrote:

@ myteammytown @ ogden brother: So what are you fine with giving up for a guy you say could only be a 35 goal scorer/year for 5 years? Even many of those in favor of acquiring Heatley say something like “He’s a bit one dimensional, but the dimension is so great”, but what happens when that dimension starts getting less great? While the two of you may realize, and be fine with, a Heatley with lower than the 45 goals per season production Heatley has had since the lockout, I think many are expecting that to continue. It’s possible that it may, but it’s no given and IMO it’s no more, or not much more, likely that him averaging 35 over the next 5 years given the way goal scorers tend to age. I’m certainly not suggesting he’ll fall off the cliff, but how far does any one dimensional player need to fall in that dimension to not be worth his current salary? You’re fine with giving up a 25 year old defenceman with only 2 NHL seasons under his belt, probably still improving (Gilbert), a cheap 22 year old F in Cogliano who should also still be improving, and a 10th OV draft pick that is a great bet to be on the NHL roster within two years at a ~1.3 mil cap hit for 3 years, a player with potential to be a top 6 playerr as soon as he’s in the NHL and some much smaller superstar potential? All for 7.5 mil cap hit Heatley? Earlier I had suggested Gilbert and O’Sullivan as the most I would offer, with it being even pushing it a bit. The more I think about it, the more I think that’s an overpay.

Well for me anyways, we've been in a situation for a while where we've got too many 2nd liners and not enough 1st liners.... we used to always do 1 for three, now were are in a position to do 3 for one. Bring in Heatly at the expense of Gilbert+O'sully+non roster player. Add a third line center a servicable bottom pairing Dman and mid range tender and this team should be in the 5/6 slot for next year.

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#96 speeds
June 12 2009, 11:26AM
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Mike Krushelnyski wrote:

What’s with people preferring Gaborik over Heatley? Gaborik is constantly injured for long stretches and isn’t as productive as Heatley even when he is healthy. Am I missing something here?

There is one thing Heatley is better at than Gaborik, and it is very important - staying healthy.

Gaborik is superior in pretty much every other way that matters.

Only one player, since the lockout, has scored more goals per game than Gaborik, that being Ovechkin. Gaborik was doing that playing in stifling MIN, under Lemaire. True, Heatley is barely behind (order is Ovechkin, Gaborik, Kovalchuk-tied with Gaborik, Heatley), but I think a reasonable case can be made that the gap would be much wider if Heatley had played in MIN and Gaborik in OTT the past 4 seasons.

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#97 Ogden Brother
June 12 2009, 11:29AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Ogden Brother wrote: Of course it does, you said: “It doesnt change the fact that overpaying a little bit to a lot of guys has brought the Oilers closer to the Cap than they should be based on skill level and performance.” Which implies that the $$ spent aren’t translating to position slotted in final standings. Which is incorrect. Really? They spent to within 3 million of the Cap, other teams that spent like that were in the playoffs. Are the Oilers really just one 3 million dollar player away from contending for the Cup? NO.

This is what you don't seem to get: Even if they had 15 million in cap space, the odds of it being used effeciently are slim to nill. This whole gripe is dependant on FA's willing to come here for below "value" (ie so they can out perform their contract) and even then you have to assume the team wouldn't take steps to hide salary if need be.... which again, looks to be incorrect.

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#98 Jason Gregor
June 12 2009, 11:39AM
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speeds wrote:

Earlier I had suggested Gilbert and O’Sullivan as the most I would offer, with it being even pushing it a bit. The more I think about it, the more I think that’s an overpay.

Why? How much better will Gilbert get? Is he going to get tougher? Same with O'Sullivan? They are maybe's to improve. Heatley is a guarantee to score at least 35 and probably 40 for the next few years.

speeds wrote:

Gaborik is superior in pretty much every other way that matters.

What are you talking about? Has Gaborik had a 100 point season? Has he scored 50 goals? How is he better than Heatley in those areas?

Is he any better defensively than Heatley? Not by much, if any.

And in the years he played close to full seasons he didn't come close to Heatley's totals, so you can't use injuries as an excuse for those years.

GP G A PTS 71 18 18 36 78 30 37 67 81 30 35 65 77 42 41 83

Those don't come close to Heatley's years. Sorry but Gaborik does not do everything better than Heatley other than staying healthy.

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#99 speeds
June 12 2009, 11:39AM
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Strike LA as a Heatley spot?

Pronger to the Kings rumored by Strickland, he himself is saying unofficial at the moment, though he's been first on a lot of STL/ former STL player stories:

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Andy-Strickland/Pronger-Traded-To-Kings/5/21535

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#100 Archaeologuy
June 12 2009, 11:42AM
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@ Ogden Brother: Ok fine you win. The Oilers will surpass the Cap by 10 million dollars hiding players in the minors every year and it shouldnt be a problem. I like the plan, you like the plan. They can re-sign players well above their value with little concern because money doesnt matter anymore, they can just hide another guy in the minors.

Your logic is so flawed its ridiculous.

Ogden Brother wrote:

Even if they had 15 million in cap space, the odds of it being used effeciently are slim to nill

Based on what? Tambellini's track record as a GM in the league?

Ogden Brother wrote:

This whole gripe is dependant on FA’s willing to come here for below “value” (ie so they can out perform their contract)

I never mention anything about anyone coming here below value. I DID say that the Oilers have had a history of mis-valuing players well above their actual value. How is this gripe about FAs coming here? I thought it was about paying too much for average players and the Cap implications that come with that.

What arent you getting about the problems of signing players above their actual value and the problems that causes when done consistently?

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