June 20 2009 07:46AM
I recapped this year’s group of draft-eligible OHL forwards last week, but it occurred to me that it might be nice to compare them against recent Oilers picks in their draft years, just for the sake of reference. How does Sam Ganger match up against John Tavares and Matt Duchene, anyway?
What I’ve done is put this years group of forwards into this list, with one addition: percentage of offense. I calculate percentage of using the following formula:
[% OFF] = Points / ((GP/68) X (Total Team Goals Scored) )
In this way, we can adjust for the strength of different OHL teams and more accurately determine offensive ability. Without further ado, here is this year’s list of draft-eligible forwards, with Oilers OHL picks since 1998 in bold:
- John Tavares: 85G – 67A – 152PTS [52.0%]
- Sam Gagner: 54G – 128A – 182PTS [48.7%]
- Matt Duchene: 45G – 69A – 114PTS [35.7%]
- Alex Hutchings: 44G – 44A – 88PTS [34.3%]
- Liam Reddox: 37G – 40A – 77PTS [33.5%]
- Zack Kassian: 32G – 52A – 84PTS [33.4%]
- Nazem Kadri: 37G – 78A – 115PTS [33.0%]
- Ethan Werek: 40G – 40A – 80PTS [33.0%]
- Peter Holland: 34G – 47A – 81PTS [29.6%]
- Lou Dickenson: 26G – 31A – 57PTS [29.6%]
- Ryan O’Reilly: 19G – 60A – 79PTS [28.3%]
- Rob Schremp: 39G – 59A – 98PTS [27.8%]
- Michael Henrich: 51G – 27A – 78PTS [27.5%]
- Taylor Beck: 27G – 44A – 71PTS [26.0%]
- Michael Latta: 28G – 44A – 72PTS [25.8%]
- Michael Fine: 23G – 30A – 53PTS [25.2%]
- Darren Archibald: 30G – 29A – 59PTS [22.9%]
- Philip Varone: 27G – 47A – 74PTS [21.2%]
- Garrett Wilson: 26G – 28A – 54PTS [19.9%]
- Casey Cizikas: 23G – 30A – 53PTS [19.4%]
- Jordan Mayer: 27G – 27A – 54PTS [19.2%]
- Zach Stortini: 17G – 21A – 38PTS [18.2%]
- Jordan Szwarz: 21G – 42A – 63PTS [16.6%]
- Matthew Tipoff: 16G – 33A – 49PTS [15.5%]
- Sam Gagner shows very strongly here; his offensive numbers are incredible and there’s very little doubt in my mind that he’ll clear Hemsky once all is said and done.
- Nazem Kadri really suffers here. His point totals have been inflated by playing in London, and I’m now much more wary of him than I was just a couple of days ago; he probably shouldn’t be a top-ten pick based on the numbers here, particularly if his two-way game is as bad as reported.
- Hello, Liam Reddox! People tend to forget that the pint-sized coach’s favourite was once a very talented junior player. Could that offense reappear? It’s doubtful, but when Lowetide compares the guy to Pisani it isn’t without reason.
- Peter Holland, who I didn’t like before, looks even worse by this measure. Ethan Werek, on the other hand, surpasses expectations and is one of six guys in the 33% and up club.
- Zach Kassian, who I figured should drop down to between 15th and 20th oberall, looks much better by this measure. He still wouldn’t be my choice, but it won’t be the end of the world if the Oilers grab him with the 10th pick; I’ve probably been underrating his offensive game a little bit.
- Finally, Alex Hutchings (who is being projected as a late second-round pick in most places) looks very good. The scouting reports on him were highly complimentary of both his passion and his willingness to play in traffic, and he’s a guy that I like more and more with each passing day.
- Look where Rob Schremp is on this list. I get the feeling that his slide on draft day had a lot more to do with his disappointing draft year production than it did with attitude.
- What have I missed? Chime in below please. I'm also curious if there's interest in me doing something similar for the WHL and QMJHL forwards.