My 2009 NHL Draft List: Ranking the Top 50 CHL Forwards

Jonathan Willis
June 23 2009 11:17PM

tavares

I’ve now run the math (percentage of total team offense) against NHL scouts over the course of three drafts. The math isn’t perfect, but it clearly beat the NHL scouts two times out of three and tied them in the third instance; something which is clearly ridiculous.

Don’t get me wrong. I’m a believer in the value and practicality of statistics. What I do find ridiculous is that looking back at first round picks from 1998 to 2000, I can do a better job with my calculator drafting forwards out of Canadian junior than those scouts can. I mean, heck, I’m just using point totals, with no context whatsoever; that’s flat-out scary (although not quite as scary as Barry Fraser’s draft record).

With that in mind, I’ve decided to rank CHL forwards. I’ve extensively drawn on their percentage of total team offense in using these rankings; I’ve made minor adjustments for scouting reports, injuries and player size, but that’s it. Here then are my rankings (percentage of total team offense and league played in listed in brackets):

  1. John Tavares (OHL, 52.0%)
  2. Matt Duchene (OHL, 35.7%)
  3. Evander Kane (WHL, 35.5%)
  4. Brayden Schenn (WHL, 30.7%)
  5. Scott Glennie (WHL, 31.1%)
  6. Zack Kassian (OHL, 33.4%)
  7. Alex Hutchings (OHL, 34.3%)
  8. Ethan Werek (OHL, 33.0%)
  9. Landon Ferraro (WHL, 33.9%)
  10. Ryan Howse (WHL, 33.7%)
  11. Nazem Kadri (OHL, 33.0%)
  12. Jordan Caron (QMJHL, 30.5%)
  13. Benjamin Casavant (QMJHL, 34.9%)
  14. Ryan O’Reilly (OHL, 28.3%)
  15. Kellen Tochkin (WHL, 37.2%)
  16. Peter Holland (OHL, 29.6%)
  17. Cassidy Mappin (WHL, 29.2%)
  18. Gabriel Bourque (QMJHL, 33.6%)
  19. Byron Froese (WHL, 28.6%)
  20. Taylor Beck (OHL, 26.0%)
  21. Tomas Vincour (WHL, 27.7%)
  22. Linden Vey (WHL, 28.5%)
  23. Andrej Nestrasil (QMJHL, 26.8%)
  24. Michal Hlinka (QMJHL, 26.2%)
  25. Michael Latta (OHL, 25.8%)
  26. Guillaume Goulet (QMJHL, 33.5%)
  27. Michael Fine (OHL, 25.2%)
  28. Carter Ashton (WHL, 22.7%)
  29. Justin Dowling (WHL, 25.9%)
  30. Jeremy Boyer (WHL, 25.6%)
  31. Cody Eakin (WHL, 24.8%)
  32. Darren Archibald (OHL, 22.9%)
  33. Levko Koper (WHL, 24.5%)
  34. Willie Coetzee (WHL, 24.4%)
  35. Philippe Paradis (QMJHL, 16.7%)
  36. Jimmy Bubnick (WHL, 23.6%)
  37. Steven Anthony (QMJHL, 21.9%)
  38. Garrett Wilson (OHL, 19.9%)
  39. Philip Varone (OHL, 21.2%)
  40. Burke Gallimore (WHL, 19.0%)
  41. Jordan Mayer (OHL, 19.2%)
  42. David Gilbert (QMJHL, 15.5%)
  43. Stepan Novotny (WHL, 17.0%)
  44. Gabriel Dumont (QMJHL, 18.9%)
  45. Jonathan Lessard (QMJHL, 16.0%)
  46. Kristopher Foucault (WHL, 15.9%)
  47. Philippe Lefebvre (QMJHL, 13.9%)
  48. Jordan Szwarz (OHL, 16.6%)
  49. Casey Cizikas (OHL, 19.4%)
  50. Matthew Tipoff (OHL, 15.5%)

This is going to be an odd list, likely unique; unfortunately, we won’t know for five years or so how well it does. A lot of guys are close, and there are just a few things I want to touch on:

I don’t understand the love for Peter Holland. Aside from the fact that he didn’t light the world on fire offensively, his biggest problems are (according to scouting reports) lack of effort and a limited defensive game.

I understand the love for Carter Ashton even less. He’s got NHL bloodlines, but while he’s big he isn’t overly physical, and is another guy for whom “competitiveness” and defensive play are generally cited as negatives. He’s a big kid, and he’s got a good shot, but I don’t see him as a first-round pick.

Nazem Kadri’s totals are inflated by playing in London. Yes, he had a good playoffs, but he probably shouldn’t be a top-ten pick.

I really like Alex Hutchings; I liked his scouting reports before I saw a scoring number. He’s supposedly a leader, intensely competitive and a clutch player. On top of that, his offensive totals were excellent, and while some projections have him as a third-round player I think he’s probably a top-thirty talent. Here’s a fun quote for those of you who are interested:

The thing I would hate to be called is a soft forward," said Hutchings. "That's something I despise being called. I like to get into the exciting stuff. I like being known as a guy who plays both ends of the ice, go into the corner and take the hit. I'm always willing to battle in the corners. I'll do some things other guys wouldn't do, like take a hit from a 6-4 defenseman and try to get the puck again."

Zack Kassian fairs well by these marks, while Schenn and Glennie don’t look quite so good. All three of those were a big surprise to me, but scouting reports convinced me to slot them where I did.

There are a couple of guys who are likely to be available in the mid-rounds this weekend who I really like – Benjamin Cassavant, a big power forward out of the QMJHL and Kellen Tochkin, a pint-sized WHL scorer. I’m going to follow their careers with interest.

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#1 Chris
June 23 2009, 11:27PM
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You sly dog... Slipping one in just shy of midnight. Don't you sleep?

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#2 Jonathan Willis
June 23 2009, 11:31PM
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@ Chris:

B.C. time ;)

My wife's out with her brother, so I'm waiting up.

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#3 Archaeologuy
June 23 2009, 11:34PM
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Have you looked at 1st rounders who played on the same team and the effect that had on their % totals? I would expect they become exceptions to the formula.

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#4 Mike76
June 23 2009, 11:37PM
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I really think the Oil should take #49 on your list. This guy is supposed to be a rock star on the ice and has slipped for some unreal circumstance that needs to be overlooked. I say in 3 years this guy is the ultimate pro.

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#5 Chris
June 23 2009, 11:37PM
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@ Willis:

I like Kassian... but not with a tenth overall pick. I'm kind of pumped about Glennie. IMO, WHL numbers are more precious than OHL numbers...(Though I hope Robin pulls out another monster scoop and Tambellini lands Kane!)

It was a depressing trip down memory lane reading up on Fraiser's 90's picks. I had a roommate that drank sooo much Oiler Koolaid he took Rita in a hockey draft before the dude ever made the team. Ouch!

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#6 Kent
June 23 2009, 11:38PM
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Interesting to see where Ferraro lands according to this method.

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#7 Archaeologuy
June 23 2009, 11:42PM
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Mike76 wrote:

I really think the Oil should take #49 on your list. This guy is supposed to be a rock star on the ice

Just like Jesse Niinimaki! ~Please Oilers, use your top 10 pick to grab a player projected to be taken some time in the 3rd round!~

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#8 Jonathan Willis
June 23 2009, 11:44PM
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@ Archaeologuy: @ Mike76:

I'm assuming Mike meant with a late round pick.

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#9 Jonathan Willis
June 23 2009, 11:46PM
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@ Kent:

...says the guy who grabbed him in the SBNation mock draft. Nice pick, by the way.

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#10 Archaeologuy
June 23 2009, 11:46PM
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@ Jonathan Willis: you have more faith in mankind than i do.

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#11 Jonathan Willis
June 23 2009, 11:47PM
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@ Chris:

I'm with you here: I like Kassian, around the 15-20 mark.

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#12 Jonathan Willis
June 23 2009, 11:48PM
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@ Archaeologuy:

I knocked Czikas down a bunch because of the off-ice stuff; by the numbers he should be rated higher (although not by a ton). As far as flyers go, I can't get excited about him; I much prefer a guy like Casavant or Tochkin.

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#13 Jonathan Willis
June 23 2009, 11:53PM
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Casavant, btw, is ranked 162nd in North America by CSB, despite the fact that he's 6'1", 213lbs, and scored 39 goals and 80 points for a crap team in PEI. He also went +32 on a team that was -14 and where the next best player to play the whole year on the team was +13.

CSB's way out to lunch here. If Casavant drops into the 4th round he'll be an absolute steal.

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#14 Archaeologuy
June 23 2009, 11:53PM
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@ Jonathan Willis: I'm not a big Junior Hockey guy, so i wont pretend to know much about these guys. But i'm willing to trust central scouting (or whomever) enough not to think that some guy projected in 40's ought to be taken 10th. I would be happy with no surprises from the Oilers.

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#15 Mike76
June 24 2009, 12:04AM
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@ Archaeologuy: Casey Cizikas as a late round pick (50 - 100) is a great pick. Probably a steal. @ 10 never. This draft is too deep and too good for that kind of nonsense, but you seem to too confused in your own inflated head to figur that much out. Go be a Flamer with the Sutters and shut the F up.

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#16 Jonathan Willis
June 24 2009, 12:10AM
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@ Mike76: @ Archaeologuy:

Pretty simple misunderstanding here; Archaeology doesn't like Cizikas at 10 and neither does Mike.

We're all agreed, yes?

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#17 Mike76
June 24 2009, 12:20AM
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Agreed.

Brownlee never heard of this guy until I brought him up.

He is the bomb. Scores goals, kicks ass and is tough as nuts.

I like that combo on this soft team. And why not? Are we gonna draft another useless goalie in the 2nd or 3rd round or are we gonna take this guy and see what happens?

@ Jonathan Willis:

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#18 Jonathan Willis
June 24 2009, 12:32AM
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@ Mike76:

Two things on Cizikas which I don't like:

a) the off-ice issues b) the fact that he took a step backward in his draft year

Now, those two items are probably related, and the second one means that he's probably got more talent than he showed this year, but he isn't a big guy (5'10", 190lbs) and I think there are some better gambles out there.

Nothing personal, that's just how I see it. But we certainly don't need to agree, and it could be next year that we'll be talking about him as a steal.

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#19 Mike76
June 24 2009, 12:43AM
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fair enough. i'll be watching him for sue to see where he goes and when he goes in this draft.@ Jonathan Willis:

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#20 SumOil
June 24 2009, 01:41AM
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I am not so interested to see who we draft in the 1st round as I am for the second round. I have always wanted us to draft one of MPS Kulikov and Glennie and looks like we might land one of the latter two. Mckenzie at TSN has MSP sliding to 10th, I dont think both Toronto and Ottawa will pass on him.

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#21 Jon Kerber
June 24 2009, 03:39AM
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Kadri is actually a player I see being hurt by the weighted proportion of offense metric since he shares a team with the draft's best player, but doesn't play on the same line as him for the most part. He still scored quite well objectively but his proportional contribution to offense is pushed down as a result.

He and Kassian I think are going examples of why scouting is very a much a game of context. I think you've found a very good tool for providing another form of context, but it cannot be a crutch.

Kassian's contribution is going to be pushed up because he players on a mediocre team and puts up big points playing a mostly static game on the PP. He rarely scores at ES and quite frankly he has very little offensive creativity. Simply put he's a north-south forward who looks good by this measure by virtue of what his team does not have.

While I have no interest in Kadri as a player we may pick, I feel extremely confident in predicting that he will be a more successful professional hockey player than Kassian in ten years. And it won't even be close.

As a final note, comparing Ott and Kassian by their draft years, junior teams, and proportional contribution is an interesting exercise which I think illustrates my point.

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#22 cg
June 24 2009, 04:50AM
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PLEASE take the "Oilers Last Game" bit off the homepage. Its so annoying to login here and see Flames 4 - Oilers 1 every single time I log on.

Do we really have to see that for another 3 months....

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#23 bingofuel
June 24 2009, 06:22AM
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@ cg:

The Oilers Last Game bit doesn't change. Please stop asking us to remove it.

Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. LEST WE FORGET.

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#24 Librarian Mike
June 24 2009, 07:15AM
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@ Jonathan Willis:

Barry Fraser's track record is one of the big reasons why I actually stopped following hockey for a couple of years. I just couldn't handle the arrogance of phoning in your picks from the beach and not taking responsibility. Nice work if you can get it, I guess.

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#25 Jonathan Willis
June 24 2009, 07:51AM
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@ Jon Kerber:

If I thought the Oilers were going to pick Kadri, I'd check out his numbers in London before Tavares was sent over, just to see. I don't think he'd be much better.

There's a lot of red flags there for me, but I suppose we'll see.

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#26 Ogden Brother
June 24 2009, 08:04AM
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@ Jonathan Willis:

He Willis, would you do Cogs+10th for Kane(4th) (assume that was the only way the deal could be done)

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#27 Bob Loblaw
June 24 2009, 08:14AM
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Nobody will be trading down anymore. The inexpensive draft pick signings are way more important now due to the salary cap.

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#28 Bar Qu
June 24 2009, 08:15AM
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This list sure makes a Ethan Werek or Alex Hutchings look like a better 2nd pick (even late first) than where they are rated. Werek especially because of his size and position would be a good fit in the Oil.

I don't know how to use Desjardin's numbers, but it would be interesting to project what type of year some of these guys should have in the AHL/NHL. From Lowetide's post on the matter, that would seem to give us a pretty good idea of how they should end up (luck et al aside).

BTW, @Arch - I dropped a stone cold Herodotus reference yesterday. I don't know if you noticed. We classics dudes gotta look out for each other.

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#29 Archaeologuy
June 24 2009, 08:29AM
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@ Bar Qu: I think i did. It was about Persian drunkeness right? I have a soft spot in my heart for Classics, but at the same time you might not meet anyone more critical of it than me. My entire thesis was me turding all over the backwards way they treat cultures outside of Greece and Rome.

But Herodotus is bad@ss. Honerable mention also goes to Ovid and Catullus. In fact, anyone who wants to read some of the dirtiest poetry in Western history should read Catullus. HIS comments werent moderated, he did NOT pretend his mom was reading over his shoulder.

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#30 Jonathan Willis
June 24 2009, 08:30AM
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@ Ogden Brother:

Possibly. I know that's not really an answer ;)

The fact of the matter is that I have nowhere near enough information about Kane to make a proper decision; I don't have any sort of detailed stats and I haven't seen him play enough (or watched him specifically closely enough) to have a real grasp of what he'll be.

But if the projection's right, I probably make that deal.

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#31 Jonathan Willis
June 24 2009, 08:35AM
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@ Bar Qu: @ Archaeologuy:

I get a huge kick out of reading those histories - although Herodotus makes some pretty funny comments (his estimate of the Persian army at Thermopylae, for one - that was Herodotus, yes?). I've always thought Tacitus was the most fun to read (although I agree with Arch's assessment of how non-Greco/Roman cultures pretty much get ignored).

Still, I haven't read much of any of it since college, which is really too bad for me.

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#32 Ogden Brother
June 24 2009, 08:58AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

@ Ogden Brother: Possibly. I know that’s not really an answer The fact of the matter is that I have nowhere near enough information about Kane to make a proper decision; I don’t have any sort of detailed stats and I haven’t seen him play enough (or watched him specifically closely enough) to have a real grasp of what he’ll be. But if the projection’s right, I probably make that deal.

Coward!

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#33 Archaeologuy
June 24 2009, 08:59AM
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@ Jonathan Willis: Tacitus is a pretty good read, especially for anyone who enjoys sarcasm. He has some really interesting things to say about Britons and how their adoption of Togas, Baths, and Latin was not their "civilization" but actually their enslavement.

My problem isnt with the ancient sources, it's with modern Classicists who think its perfectly reasonable to still refer to non greco/roman peoples as primitive. Knowing why Herodotus refered to non Greeks as barbarians is one thing, actually believing him is another. But until I'm recruited to write a monthly entry on Classics, maybe i should keep my ranting at bay.

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#34 Jonathan Willis
June 24 2009, 09:05AM
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@ Archaeologuy:

No, I think it's pretty obvious that you're correct. Just looking at the achievements of the Arabs or the Chinese (particularly compared with post-Rome Europe) shows clearly that the obsession of most historians with Western history is flat-out wrong.

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#35 Jonathan Willis
June 24 2009, 09:07AM
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@ Ogden Brother:

It's a bit like this list; something that's here mostly for fun and so I can refer to it down the road to see how it worked.

Lord knows I wouldn't give this to a scouting crew and say "pick these guys" because I simply don't have enough knowledge. Like that, I don't have enough knowledge on Kane to give you a definitive answer, but if the projection is accurate I'd strongly consider that trade.

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#36 Hemmertime
June 24 2009, 09:13AM
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hxxp://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/Oilers+serious+contention+Heatley/1727698/story.html

Oilers not in serious contention for Heatley according to Matheson. I think we need to up the package or Murray is posturing for better offers.

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#37 Archaeologuy
June 24 2009, 09:16AM
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@ Jonathan Willis: The problem with the discipline of Classics is that it needs to include itself in the changes that have happened in the disciplines of History, Sociology, Anthropology (mostly Anthro, but I'm biased), Political Science, and Linguistics, BUT Classics still lags almost 20 years behind any of those guys. Its a discipline based on a region and time period as opposed to a type of information. It makes the subject interesting from all of the other discipline's perspectives, and yet Classics has kept an arms length from new movements in thought. There are ideas floating around Classics today that have been rejected more than a century ago by Anthropology. It is very frustrating, and the prospect of dealing through the intellectual sludge is one of my biggest hurdles for doing a PhD.

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#38 Bar Qu
June 24 2009, 09:21AM
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@ Archaeologuy: @ Jonathan Willis:

An honest to goodness discussion of the relative merits of ancient writers and the chronological/cultural snobbery of academia! I fainted a little bit just then.

I too have a soft spot for Herodotus as he was my company on my journey around Europe in '97. Plus, I loved the Persian and Pelopponesian wars history of Greece. Thucydides is my favourite ancient writer to read - nothing like a disillusioned patriot.

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#39 Wainwright Dan
June 24 2009, 09:22AM
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// Puts on a monocle, raises his nose, swirls his wineglass // " I think the early crustacious period far otuweighed the significance of the early mesopotamian era by a factor of 7 ... "

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#40 Archaeologuy
June 24 2009, 09:35AM
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Bar Qu wrote:

An honest to goodness discussion of the relative merits of ancient writers and the chronological/cultural snobbery of academia! I fainted a little bit just then.

I know, I wonder how many people are reading this and thinking, "what the crap are these guys going on about?" Its ok everyone else. Just go home and read your Homer, Herodotus, Thucydides, Ovid, Tacitus, and Catullus. Then you too can dazzle your friends at dinner parties with your abundant knowledge about the ancient world. Or just keep going to work and make more money than me.

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#41 Wainwright Dan
June 24 2009, 09:48AM
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Or annoy them with said academic snobbery :)

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#42 Bar Qu
June 24 2009, 09:53AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Bar Qu wrote: An honest to goodness discussion of the relative merits of ancient writers and the chronological/cultural snobbery of academia! I fainted a little bit just then. I know, I wonder how many people are reading this and thinking, “what the crap are these guys going on about?” Its ok everyone else. Just go home and read your Homer, Herodotus, Thucydides, Ovid, Tacitus, and Catullus. Then you too can dazzle your friends at dinner parties with your abundant knowledge about the ancient world. Or just keep going to work and make more money than me.

You obviously have more polite guests at your dinner parties than I do. Mostly I get told to shut up;)

But back to my original point @JW Bar Qu wrote:

This list sure makes a Ethan Werek or Alex Hutchings look like a better 2nd pick (even late first) than where they are rated. Werek especially because of his size and position would be a good fit in the Oil. I don’t know how to use Desjardin’s numbers, but it would be interesting to project what type of year some of these guys should have in the AHL/NHL. From Lowetide’s post on the matter, that would seem to give us a pretty good idea of how they should end up (luck et al aside).
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#43 Archaeologuy
June 24 2009, 09:55AM
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@ Wainwright Dan: It's easier for Classicists because a lot of their friends are also Classicists. If not, then do it at your own risk. But the ladies love a good yarn about 12th century BCE Greece...that was a lie...ladies love the 11th century WAY more.

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#44 scorecoff hemmercules
June 24 2009, 10:09AM
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Hemmertime wrote:

hxxp://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/Oilers+serious+contention+Heatley/1727698/story.html Oilers not in serious contention for Heatley according to Matheson. I think we need to up the package or Murray is posturing for better offers.

I'm pretty sure Heatly isn't coming to Edmonton after reading that. He doesn't want to be here and we don't have a good enough package that we are willing to dump for him. I thought all this Heatly talk was a waste of time right from the beginning, a pipe dream if you will. This confirms it.

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#45 Traktor
June 24 2009, 10:12AM
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Carter Ashton

He's a top 20 pick IMO.

He didn't have a great playoffs but he finished 1st on Lethbridge in goals in the regular season with 30 and he's not even close to a finished product.

I think next year will be a huge year for him (50 goals, 80 points).

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#46 scorecoff hemmercules
June 24 2009, 10:34AM
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@ Jonathan Willis:

Who do you think has the better coaching staff now, OIlers or Flames???

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#47 roughneck
June 24 2009, 10:48AM
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ryan oriellys had some fantastic games neutralizing the ohls "stallions". Im kind of surprised his offensive numbers are so high given the role he played.

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#48 roughneck
June 24 2009, 10:51AM
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@ scorecoff hemmercules:

flames win for scowling the most.... makes them look all determined and dedicated.

we win on the lets have a beer and a laugh end and kick ass in gum chewing

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#49 scorecoff hemmercules
June 24 2009, 11:10AM
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@ roughneck:

The Toronto Makebeliefs win the scowling contest hands down in the NHL, Burke and Wilson should be poster boys for depression.

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#50 RossCreek
June 24 2009, 11:18AM
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Flames take D Dylan Olsen, F Landon Ferraro or Carter Ashton?

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