Hot Hot Heatley

Jason Gregor
June 09 2009 11:07PM

hotheatley

With Dany Heatley announcing he wants out of Ottawa and into the Western conference you can bet that 14 teams in West are preparing their offer. The Wings can’t take Heatley because he makes more than Lidstrom and that goes against their policy, not to mention Zetterberg and Datsyuk make less as well.

It is rare to see a superstar traded for a superstar. The last time it happened, Heatley was dealt for Marian Hossa. In the West, there are only two players that fit the bill for this to happen again.

Rick Nash and Dion Phaneuf.

Those trades are at least plausible, although with Phaneuf only 24 and Nash 25, I wonder if the Jackets and Flames would have some reservations.

No other team in the western conference has a guy that would be a realistic option. The Ducks aren’t moving Getzlaf for Heatley. Getzlaf brings way more to the table. The Oilers, Blues, Wild, Avalanche, Stars, Canucks, Sharks and Coyotes have no one even close. Luongo has one year left on his deal, and the Sens have Leclaire locked in at $3.8 million.

Guys like Shea Weber, Duncan Keith and Anze Kopitar would get the discussion started but aren’t enough straight up.

So let’s look at some realistic options, and take into account age, salary and the Sens’ needs. Their most glaring need is a top two D-man, and those are hard to find, or at least a proven offensive D-man. They need some scoring depth, preferably a LW, but if he can score and plays C or RW they will take him.

I said the Wings are out, and I can guarantee that Heatley doesn’t want to go to the mess in Phoenix. We can argue all day about which destinations are the best, but I’d rather look at who can make viable offers.

Remember that it is very rare that teams come close to giving up fair value when acquiring a top-end talent in his prime. The Oilers fleeced the Blues when they got the Human Rake, the Ducks fleeced the Oilers for the same Rake and the Sharks fleeced the Bruins for Jumbo Joe. Ask Habs fans if they got market value for Patrick Roy.

The Blues got Brewer, Lynch and Woywitka. The Oilers got Lupul, Smid and 1st and a bonus 1st because the Ducks won the Cup. The Bruins got Sturm, Stuart and Wayne Primeau. The Habs got Kovalenko, Thibault and Rucinsky while Keane went with Roy.

One of the best players traded recently was Brad Richards to Dallas and the Lightning got Jeff Halpern, Mike Smith, Jussi Jokinen and 4th rounder for Richards and Johan Holmqvist. The odds are the Sens won’t get as big a return as many will predict in the next few weeks.

KINGS

They have loads of cap space and lots of good young prospects. Would Alexander Frolov and Jack Johnson be enough? With a prospect involved it would be close, as long as Johnson doesn’t actually want $5 a season. If he does he’ll be sitting out for a long time.

SHARKS

Vlasic and Ehrhoff are the most attractive on the back end, but it would take them plus a good forward to get the convo started. Marleau and his $6.3 million is not a contract the Sens would want. The Sharks biggest problem is that they only have 13 guys under contract and I don’t see them parting with Boyle. Doug Wilson has a reputation of making surprise moves, so you can’t rule out the Sharks. If the Sens could get Clowe signed then I could see the Sharks getting involved, but they would have to move Marleau after because they would have way too much salary (over $52 million) tied up in 13 guys.

STARS

How good would Joe Nieuwendyk look if one of his first moves was to acquire Heatley? The Stars have cap space to play with, but do they have enough to entice the Sens? The Sens would love Morrow but I don’t see the Stars trading their captain. They have no one who is close to a top-two D-man, so I don’t see them being in the hunt.

DUCKS

They always seem to be involved in trades. The Whitney for Kunitz deal surprised many, but they wanted him to replace Niedermayer and the Human Rake. If they move Whitney their backend becomes pretty thin. They have three young guns in Getzlaf, Perry and Ryan, but after that they have no forwards that would entice the Sens. I think the Sens would take Ryan, but I doubt Anaheim wants to move him.

BLUE JACKETS

Nash straight up would be interesting, but I doubt we’ll see that. Scott Howson has some good young players and decent depth on his backend. Would a Hejda, Klesla and Voracek get the convo started? I think it might. The Sens need some depth on the backend and while neither of those two is overly offensive, they can comfortably play 20 minutes each. Rumours are swirling that the Jackets might have to trim some salary, so I wonder how it would look if they bring in a guy making $7.5 million.

PREDATORS

They love Shea Weber and he only seems to be getting better. This would be gutsy move by the Preds, but Poile has shown a propensity to make those moves in recent years. What about Suter, Erat and Tootoo? The Sens would add just over a million in salary but they’d get three players, and Tootoo could replace Chris Neil.

BLUES

Would the Blues part with young Erik Johnson? Larry Pleau would love to make a splash and get a gunner like Heatley and could make a reasonable offer of young guys. Would Jackman, Oshie and Perron be too much or not enough proven talent? The Blues have Boyes and Backes as well. I think Pleau and the Blues have to be considered a legitimate option. The only problem is if Heatley didn’t like Cory Clouston, is there any chance he’ll play for Andy Murray?

BLACKHAWKS

They have lots of young talent but none are proven scorers just yet. Does Dale Tallon try to speed up the process and get a sniper? Trading Keith might not seem wise, but he only has a year left before he gets a big raise. I think the Hawks could put together the best offer; the question is whether Tallon wants to let his young guys grow together or try to win now? Toews and Kane seem untouchable, but Sharp, Barker and Versteeg could still be a great package. It will be interesting to watch if Tallon gives up potential for proven value. I’d go with the proven value.

AVALANCHE

After watching them hang their coach out to dry, the expected retirement of Joe Sakic, and no top end D-man that would fit the Sens’ need I don’t see any way that rookie GM Greg Sherman gets into the sweepstakes.

WILD

Chuck Fletcher would love to land Heatley to replace Gaborik. Maybe he gives the Sens permission to talk to Gaborik and if they come to a contract agreement they trade snipers. The Sens might want another body, because of Gaborik’s health history, but a Gaborik for Heatley deal would make for a great debate on who won the deal. I don’t think Johnsson, Zidlicky or Schultz is good enough as a starting point for a three-for-one deal. Outside of the Gaborik longshot I don’t see the Wild being involved.

FLAMES

It is interesting to hear how Phaneuf is perceived amongst fans and the players. In a recent poll he was voted the most overrated player in the game, while many others still see him as a Norris Trophy candidate for many years to come. The only way the Flames can bring Heatley back to his home town is by dealing one of their big tickets. I can’t see them moving Iginla or Kiprusoff so that leaves Jokinen and Regehr. No chance the Sens take Jokinen, so if they don’t want to part with Phaneuf it would have to be Regehr. The problem is the Flames don’t have any forwards that would interest the Sens, unless the Sens would take Cammalleri. And if he wants over $5 million I don’t see that happening. Heatley’s parents live just outside Calgary, so the Flames will be in the hunt, but would they deal Phaneuf? Would you Flames fans?

CANUCKS

Many of Mike Gillis’ best assets are UFAs in the Sedin Sisters and Ohlund, but could a package of Bieksa, Kesler and the speedy Raymond land him Heatley? It might, but that would leave the Canucks with eleven players signed for only $35 million, and that would end any chance of re-signing the twins. Maybe Gillis gives the Sens permission to talk to the Sisters, and if they can sign them for $11 million maybe he’d take Heatley and Filip Kuba. The Sens get some offensive depth, and the Canucks don’t trade part with a signed player. Bryan Murray will look at every option to try and keep his team competitive.

OILERS

The Oilers have depth at the one position the Sens really want; offensive D-man. Souray and Visnovsky have NMC in their contract, and their age probably doesn’t intrigue the Sens, but Gilbert and Grebeshkov are two guys the Sens would like. Gilbert has more value around the league, so a package would have to start with him. Gilbert, Cogliano and Pisani would at least get them in the conversation. Maybe the Sens ask for O’Sullivan instead of Pisani. The Sens will have no interest in Penner, Horcoff or Nilsson. So that limits the Oilers in what package they can offer, but a Gilbert, Cogliano, O’Sullivan package seems comparable to what the other teams will offer.

Heatley has a 4 million dollar signing bonus due on July 1st, and since you can’t exchange money in trades, you’d expect this trade to occur before then. You’d expect Murray to move him before then, because once teams start to sign UFAs that would reduce the amount of teams that could afford Heatley’s large salary.

I think it is realistic to say that there are 10 teams in the West who have a realistic shot of offering the Sens a package they would like. The biggest hurdle will be if Heatley agrees to go to that team. To me it is absolutely ridiculous that a player asks for a no-trade clause and then one year later wants to get traded.

Either way many teams, and their fans, will be hoping to land one of the few proven snipers in the league.

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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#51 dyckster
June 10 2009, 09:19AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Incidentally, I’ve been looking at blogs for teams around the league, and there’s surprisingly little interest in Heatley. Most of them knock his character; this is his second trade request, and he wants out because he was upset with Cory Clouston (who hasn’t even been there half a season). He’s not much of a two-way player, either, and he’s bloody expensive. Don’t get me wrong, as a GM I’d still be interested, but I wonder if perhaps we’re overstating the number of teams interested in him. Just a thought.

FINALLY a post that's not a cut and paste from 400 other posts regarding DH. $7.5 mil a year for a guy that may have questionable character...pretty big risk. Who's to say he doesn't pull the same nonsense here? Will he score...for sure, will he potentially disrupt an already supposedly sensitive dressing room environment...maybe. Worth it..now I'm not sure? Being a hometown boy and having Hockey Canada assoctions with Quinn, Renney, and such may fix everything.

Signed,

My own devils advocate

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#52 Wyseguy
June 10 2009, 09:20AM
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Not getting a lot of work done the last 2 days.

Lets hope Tambellini gets the Greb's contract sealed so they actually are as fat as we think on D. Someone could swoop in and throw an offer sheet at Grebs which either makes him too expensive and we let him go for picks or pushes us closer to the cap.

And we still need a goalie.

I live about 10 min from Heatley's house, do you think picketing in his front yard or going down on bended knee is a better strategy to convince him to come to Edmonton?

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#53 Mike Krushelnyski
June 10 2009, 09:26AM
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@ Wyseguy:

Option #3: Stand on his lawn with boombox over your head blasting some 80's power ballad. He'd have to make the Oilers his first choice after that, the guy's not made of stone.

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#54 Archaeologuy
June 10 2009, 09:27AM
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RossCreek wrote:

Just my opinion Arch, but over the past few months I’ve come to the conclusion that you over value Cogliano. Moreso than anyone else. That is not to say that I think he is no good, just that I think you over value him. Is he your favorite Oiler? Just asking.

I do value him a little higher than most people. I consider him an important part of the future core of the Club. I think he's a better goal scorer than the other kids and i like his wheels. Honestly, if he needs to be part of the deal to get Heatley its not like the Oilers wont still be getting the best player. I just honestly dont think the package to get him needs to include Cogs. IMO The Sens scoring problems were much more related to a lack of PMD and internal issues than a lack of talented forwards. Even including Chorney as a prospect with Gilbert and Sullivan would be a sweet deal for the Sens.

and Hemsky and Souray are my favorite Oilers, but i have a sweet spot in my heart for guys like Stortini and Macyntire too.

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#55 Archaeologuy
June 10 2009, 09:29AM
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@ Mike Krushelnyski:

You had me at Hello.

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#56 RossCreek
June 10 2009, 09:46AM
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Not that it'd be a dealbreaker, but would you guys swap Staios for Smith? Would Ottawa? If I'm not mistaken, they're pretty much same age, cap hit and term.

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#57 NonMint
June 10 2009, 09:51AM
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@ Mike Krushelnyski: Mike Krushelnyski wrote:

@ Wyseguy: Option #3: Stand on his lawn with boombox over your head blasting some 80’s power ballad. He’d have to make the Oilers his first choice after that, the guy’s not made of stone.

You sir, just made my day.

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#58 Ogden Brother
June 10 2009, 09:52AM
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RossCreek wrote:

Not that it’d be a dealbreaker, but would you guys swap Staios for Smith? Would Ottawa? If I’m not mistaken, they’re pretty much same age, cap hit and term.

As a cap managment move, I could see Ott wanting to add Smith and take Nilsson back.

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#59 Colin
June 10 2009, 09:53AM
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RossCreek wrote:

Not that it’d be a dealbreaker, but would you guys swap Staios for Smith? Would Ottawa? If I’m not mistaken, they’re pretty much same age, cap hit and term.

Only because Smith grows an awesome playoff beard.

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#60 Librarian Mike
June 10 2009, 09:57AM
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Mike Krushelnyski wrote:

@ Wyseguy: Option #3: Stand on his lawn with boombox over your head blasting some 80’s power ballad. He’d have to make the Oilers his first choice after that, the guy’s not made of stone.

(inside Tambellini's office, with that Armageddon song by Aerosmith in the background)

"Dany, you complete us....well....actually we still have a big question mark in goal and we're still pretty small up front, but you'll like our coaches...probably."

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#61 OvenChicken8
June 10 2009, 10:04AM
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@ Jonathan Willis:

Really I'm not sure who would play RW with Heatley, but I would rather fill the goal scoring gap. Considering nobody was close to a 30 goal scorer last year, I feel that is a big need for this team. We have enough PMD and playmaking forwards that Hemsky wouldn't be missed that much.

And if we sent Grebs in the package we wouldn't be adding the extra 3+MM.

Playing GM is so much fun! *Sits down with NHL09 and makes up some more potential trade combinations*

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#62 Librarian Mike
June 10 2009, 10:14AM
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OvenChicken8 wrote:

Playing GM is so much fun! *Sits down with NHL09 and makes up some more potential trade combinations*

If only it was real. I created myself as an offensive defenseman in one of those games, and I scored 105 goals as a rookie, along with 32 in the playoffs.

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#63 swany
June 10 2009, 10:23AM
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Gregor if we move Gilbert, Cogs and the 10th pick for Heatly that adds 1.5 mil to our salsry cap So if Souray wants to go to the Sunshine State couldn't we move him for picks and assets and still sign Jay-Bo for a 6 mil cap hit front loaded like the Wings do. that only adds 2 mil in cap hit. just a thought.

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#64 JRocks247
June 10 2009, 10:27AM
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Out - Gilbert,Chorney,BobbyNils = - 6.94mil In - Heater, 3rd round pick = + 7.5mil

Out - Souray,Horc, 1st rounder = - 11.9mil In - Kopitar, 1st rounder = + 6.8mil

Out - Penner (i wish), 2nd pick In - Harding

Sign Kotalik, Bouwmeester, Zannon

Wow i should stop drinking at work...scotch, scotch, scotch

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#65 Oilersordeath
June 10 2009, 10:29AM
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@ Mike Krushelnyski: I thinking the song should be "Still of the night" Whitesnake. That song just F-ing rocks!!

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#66 Librarian Mike
June 10 2009, 10:34AM
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@ Oilersordeath:

Mmmmmm...Tawny Kitaen....

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#67 Oilersordeath
June 10 2009, 10:39AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

RossCreek wrote: Just my opinion Arch, but over the past few months I’ve come to the conclusion that you over value Cogliano. Moreso than anyone else. That is not to say that I think he is no good, just that I think you over value him. Is he your favorite Oiler? Just asking. I do value him a little higher than most people. I consider him an important part of the future core of the Club. I think he’s a better goal scorer than the other kids and i like his wheels. Honestly, if he needs to be part of the deal to get Heatley its not like the Oilers wont still be getting the best player. I just honestly dont think the package to get him needs to include Cogs. IMO The Sens scoring problems were much more related to a lack of PMD and internal issues than a lack of talented forwards. Even including Chorney as a prospect with Gilbert and Sullivan would be a sweet deal for the Sens. and Hemsky and Souray are my favorite Oilers, but i have a sweet spot in my heart for guys like Stortini and Macyntire too.

Archaeologuy, I'm totally with you on the Cogliano deal. Ever since the Oil drafted him I was really high on this kid. I say with his wheels and knack for the net, just a little more fine tuning is all he needs and I can see a possible Stevie Sullivan type of player. What do you think?

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#68 Archaeologuy
June 10 2009, 10:56AM
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@ Oilersordeath: I think he's capable of scoring 25-30 goals consistently (at least until he loses a step around 32-35 yrs old). He's not there yet, but he just came off of his 2nd year, there's plenty of time to keep developing. His speed is blinding and his shooting % is outrageous. He tied for 2nd in Oiler forward goal scoring with 3rd line time and no PP time. He might not be a C for his whole career but lots of players have to switch to the wing at some point in their transition to being a productive NHL player. If I was Tambi I would avoid trading him at all costs, at least for a year or 2 to see how he tracks moving forward.

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#69 myteammytown
June 10 2009, 11:07AM
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@ swany:

who exactly is going to take on sourays cap hits in exchange for picks and prospects?

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#70 The Menace
June 10 2009, 11:09AM
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Everything else being equal, I would rather keep Cogs than Sully in a deal like this. I think Cogs can be something special long term here.

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#71 GSC
June 10 2009, 11:15AM
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The Menace wrote:

Everything else being equal, I would rather keep Cogs than Sully in a deal like this. I think Cogs can be something special long term here.

I have to agree. IMO, O'Sullivan looks rather disinterested in playing in Edmonton...

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#72 swany
June 10 2009, 11:21AM
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myteammytown wrote:

@ swany: who exactly is going to take on sourays cap hits in exchange for picks and prospects?

Maybe L.A. have a ton of space plus they could use another D-man since Johnson won't be there as he wants 5.5/mil per year and no way they sign him for that amount of cash, but they might take Souray as he is a proven top pairing D man that can score from the point in all situations.

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#73 Rick
June 10 2009, 11:22AM
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myteammytown wrote:

@ swany: who exactly is going to take on sourays cap hits in exchange for picks and prospects?

Depending on what the word is on Zubov, a team like Dallas could be looking for a veteran defender that's good on the PP. If Zubov isn't able to come back they have both the need and the cap space.

It's not California but it is closer to his family.

If you're talking strictly salary dump and don't really care what kind of picks are coming back, it's a matter of finding a team that may be looking at one of the higher priced UFA defencemen to target. Obviously those teams would feel they have the cap space to work with.

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#74 Mike from Hardware
June 10 2009, 11:25AM
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OvenChicken8 wrote:

*Sits down with NHL09 and makes up some more potential trade combinations*

I actually traded for Heatley in my dynasty long before this trade talk came along. It's too bad things don't work like the video games... all it took me was Staios, Nilsson, and Schremp.

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#75 Librarian Mike
June 10 2009, 11:25AM
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@ Archaeologuy:

I agree in that I'm pretty wary of just giving up on someone who has only played a couple of years, largely out of position and in a limited role. I'd much rather we trimmed fat with some of the older guys who are making big money for what they once were (i.e. Staios). I think we will all learn a great deal about what kind of value our players REALLY have after seeing them under this new coaching staff.

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#76 dyckster
June 10 2009, 11:30AM
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GSC wrote:

The Menace wrote: Everything else being equal, I would rather keep Cogs than Sully in a deal like this. I think Cogs can be something special long term here. I have to agree. IMO, O’Sullivan looks rather disinterested in playing in Edmonton…

We're writing the guy off kinda of quickly here I think. I remember some hockey expert say during an Oiler TV telecast that it took him a while to adjust in LA. I have never been involved in a situation where I unexpectedly changed cities and was forced to effectively bond with a room mostly made up of strangers. My guess is there must be a MASSIVE mental adjustment required to get to the point where you feel you fit in.

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#77 Archaeologuy
June 10 2009, 11:35AM
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@ Librarian Mike:

I agree. This past year was terrible and filled with so many things that made me say "WTF" that it's hard not to imagine that a new coach will fix some (more than many people think) of the issues on the team. That being said, I dont mind using O'Sullivan in trade deals because he hasnt been here very long and was acquired for a pending UFA who wasnt going to re-sign here anyway. Nilsson dropped off of the face of the earth this past season, so I dont mind seeing him go too. Gilbert has a healthy contract but he actually produces. He fits into the #1 slot of tradeable assets that the Oilers have, so I've detached myself from even thinking about him as an Oiler for next season. After that I agree that the next place to lose players is the fat on the 3rd line and Staios.

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#78 GSC
June 10 2009, 11:38AM
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dyckster wrote:

We’re writing the guy off kinda of quickly here I think. I remember some hockey expert say during an Oiler TV telecast that it took him a while to adjust in LA. I have never been involved in a situation where I unexpectedly changed cities and was forced to effectively bond with a room mostly made up of strangers. My guess is there must be a MASSIVE mental adjustment required to get to the point where you feel you fit in.

Possibly, it's just the vibe that I get with Paddy O. Hopefully I'm wrong, if he ends up staying in Edmonton.

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#79 Chris
June 10 2009, 11:38AM
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@ Archaeologuy:

I like Cogliano too... but he CAN'T play the wing. If you play Cogliano on the wing you cut his ice in half, and limit his best weapon: the straightaway speed. Hemsky can cut laterally way quicker than Cogs so he is able to do more with that limited ice... Add to that, Hemmsky lines up on the right side; Cogliano would probably have to play on the left if he is to use his speed to drive to the net. Problem is, most teams load up on the left when trapping. (This is why left wingers are typically big power forward style wingers like Penner, Moreau and such.) I just don't think Cogliano is big enough or durable enough to play an 82 game schedule down those boards. Plus, have you ever seen Cogliano win a puck retrieval battle down low? In short, it's my contention that Cogliano will never produce even close to his potential playing on the wing... I'm sure this is why the Oilers kept him at center all last season even though he wasn't an ideal center for that shutdown role....

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#80 RossCreek
June 10 2009, 11:48AM
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I guess I have an opposite feeling as most/some fans here. I'd like to try and keep O'Sullivan and wouldn't mind moving Cogliano. Long term, I'm not sure who'll be better and I don't think anyone truly knows quite yet. IMO, the Oilers need O'Sullivan more than Cogliano strictly based on THEIR roster. Either way, I think Ottawa has interest because they could use a top 6 forward regardless of center or wing, realistically, both. Another team, in another situation, and I may choose Cogliano over O'Sullivan. Lets say its Cogliano, O'Sullivan and Gilbert OR Gagner and Gilbert. Which one would you do? I'm not saying Gagner is worth the same as the other 2 together, just wanna gauge the reaction to Gagner being involved.

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#81 Archaeologuy
June 10 2009, 11:49AM
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@ Chris: Cogs is 21 yrs old. He will get stronger, he will get bigger. Saying he cant play the Wing because he wont be able to use his speed is crazy. There are a hundred examples of fast players playing on the wing. No one said he would be on the 1st line either. He can play the RW on the 2nd line. Whose spot will he be taking? I also heard that he was lost on the wing, but he wont have a choice if the Oilers get themselves a 3rd line C this off season.

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#82 Jason Gregor
June 10 2009, 11:49AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

No way the Oil are giving up 3 roster players if 1 of those guys is named Cogs or Gags. Not a chance. At the top of your article you noted that in recent History the team losing the Star doesnt get close to value, and a lot of the guys you’ve highlighted are pretty good deals for the Sens. Frolov and Johnson. Thats a duo that could get a lot around the league, and probably a little overkill to get a player who is demanding out of his current team.

What is Cogliano's top out rate at? 30 Goals? 40? I think probably around 30. Is he really that much better than Lupul? I think you are overvaluing the Oiler prospects, which happens a lot in Edmonton.

Heatley is 28 and a proven sniper. He is a top-five goal scorer in this league. You guys might love Cogliano and Gagner, but they haven't even scored 20 yet, and who knows if they will score 40 or 50. They might, but the odds are they won't. So why is that overvaluing Heatley. He has proven he can score 50 and he is in the prime of his career.

Frolov and Johnson aren't as good as you seem to think. Johnson was moved once already, and he is a headcase. Frolov is a decent scorer, but more of a complimentary player than a dominant one.

Jonathan Willis wrote:

Gilbert, Cogliano and O’Sullivan is too high a price too pay, mostly because of the cap; that’s three cheap, effective guys for one big scorer - and the Oilers are going to need cheap, effective guys.

Gilbert $4 million, O'Sullivan $2.9 and Cogliano one year left at 850,000. That is more than Heatley and Cogliano will be looking for a raise next year. The Oilers have to rid themselves of some forwards, and O'Sullivan is already on team #3. THere is a reason for that. I take the guarantee in Heatley now, rather than wonder if O'Sullivan or Cogliano will ever become first line players. Jonathan Willis wrote:

Gilbert, Cogliano/O’Sullivan, and Eberle.

Why are you rating O'Sullivan that much higher than Eberle? O'Sullivan hasn't panned out to being anything more than a bottom end 2nd liner right now. Eberle could be that or he could be less, but I can guarantee you that the Oilers would consider moving Eberle a bigger cost than O'Sullivan.

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#83 Ogden Brother
June 10 2009, 11:58AM
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Here's a sampling of elite or top end trades over the last 10 years or so:

Bure: Traded from Vancouver Canucks with Bret Hedican, Brad Ference and conditional draft pick to Florida Panthers for Dave Gagner, Ed Jovanovski, Kevin Weekes, Mike Brown and conditional draft pick

Thornton: Traded from Boston Bruins to San Jose Sharks for Wayne Primeau, Brad Stuart and Marco Sturm

Louongo: Traded from Florida Panthers with Lukas Krajicek and round 6 pick in the 2006 draft (Sergei Shirokov) to Vancouver Canucks for Todd Bertuzzi, Bryan Allen, Alex Auld and conditional pick in the 2007 draft

Pronger 1: Brewer/Lynch/Woywitka

Pronger 2: Smid/Lupul/1st/2nd conditional pick

All of those guys had more value then Heatly (maybe not a tonne, but certainly more)

Vishnosky: Stoll/Greene

Jokenin 1: Boyton/Ballard/2nd

Jokenin 2: Prust/Lombardi/1st

Richards: Brad Richards and goaltender Johan Holmqvist to the Dallas Stars for goalie Mike Smith, centre Jeff Halpern, winger Jussi Jokinen and a fourth-round pick

Those three are worse then Heatly, but not a whole bunch. I'd guess your return would fall somewhere between this group and the above's group

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#84 Ogden Brother
June 10 2009, 12:00PM
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Chris wrote:

@ Archaeologuy: I like Cogliano too… but he CAN’T play the wing. If you play Cogliano on the wing you cut his ice in half, and limit his best weapon: the straightaway speed. Hemsky can cut laterally way quicker than Cogs so he is able to do more with that limited ice… Add to that, Hemmsky lines up on the right side; Cogliano would probably have to play on the left if he is to use his speed to drive to the net. Problem is, most teams load up on the left when trapping. (This is why left wingers are typically big power forward style wingers like Penner, Moreau and such.) I just don’t think Cogliano is big enough or durable enough to play an 82 game schedule down those boards. Plus, have you ever seen Cogliano win a puck retrieval battle down low? In short, it’s my contention that Cogliano will never produce even close to his potential playing on the wing… I’m sure this is why the Oilers kept him at center all last season even though he wasn’t an ideal center for that shutdown role….

But but but but .... I thought MacT was holding him back?

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#85 Archaeologuy
June 10 2009, 12:01PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Heatley is 28 and a proven sniper. He is a top-five goal scorer in this league. You guys might love Cogliano and Gagner, but they haven’t even scored 20 yet, and who knows if they will score 40 or 50.

Doesnt matter. The Player has demanded out. Advantage to the rest of the League. I would be shocked if the Sens get anything close to a good deal for Heatley. And in that statement I stated that if one of the 2 kids is involved it shouldnt take 2 other roster players to get it done, certainly not another top 6 forward. Cogs and Gilbert max if they have to go that direction. I think that when Heatley is traded a lot of people will be shocked at how relatively little was given up to get him. If I'm proven wrong I will admit that my feeling on that matter was way off base.

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#86 The Menace
June 10 2009, 12:01PM
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dyckster wrote:

We’re writing the guy off kinda of quickly here I think. I remember some hockey expert say during an Oiler TV telecast that it took him a while to adjust in LA. I have never been involved in a situation where I unexpectedly changed cities and was forced to effectively bond with a room mostly made up of strangers. My guess is there must be a MASSIVE mental adjustment required to get to the point where you feel you fit in.

It's not that I'm writing him off - what I meant was that I could make the deal with either of them, I would choose to keep Cogs. I like Sully but I would say goodbye to make this deal happen.

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#87 Jason Gregor
June 10 2009, 12:01PM
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And JW I made it clear in my post that I didn't want to gues who would be interested, rather what teams have to offer. Depending on the cost teams will have interest.

Katz wants a star player here, and he will do whatever it takes to get it done. Don't under sell that point.

There will lots of time to critique the deal whoever lands Heatley, but his character, or lack there of, won't scare many teams off.

The Oilers have a team of GOOD GUYS and it got them no where. Up until asking for this trade no one questioned Heatley's character. Does one decision mean he is a bad seed.

The car accident, was an accident. Many young guys make bad decisions, regardless of what we do. I can understand why he would want to leave Atlanta after that. It would be tough.

Him asking for a trade now, illustrates he didn't see eye to eye with Clouston. He has had four different coaches in the past few years and maybe he was sick of the carousel.

Is he a bit of a primadonna, probably. But who cares about that. No one questioned his desire and heart when he, along with Spezza and Alfredsson carried the Sens to the Cup final. Or that he is now the most productive Canadian ever in terms of the World Championships.

Asking for a trade doesn't mean he has character issues. He didn't like Clouston.

The Human Rake asked for a trade and I'm pretty sure Anaheim didn't feel like he let them down. Circumstances will vary from player to player in why they want to be moved, but it doesn't mean they will be a disruption on their new team.

Up until yesterday there were never any reports of Heatley being a bad seed in Ottawa or Atlanta.

I'm sure any team that trades for him will research his character and what his teammates think, but ultimately is one of a few proven snipers and that will trump any perceived character issues.

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#88 The Menace
June 10 2009, 12:04PM
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Librarian Mike wrote:

@ Archaeologuy: I agree in that I’m pretty wary of just giving up on someone who has only played a couple of years, largely out of position and in a limited role. I’d much rather we trimmed fat with some of the older guys who are making big money for what they once were (i.e. Staios). I think we will all learn a great deal about what kind of value our players REALLY have after seeing them under this new coaching staff.

I'm also eager to see if our guys look any different under the new coaching staff. we may see some life out of Nillson or Penner that we haven't seen before.

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#89 Jason Gregor
June 10 2009, 12:04PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

stated that if one of the 2 kids is involved it shouldnt take 2 other roster players to get it done, certainly not another top 6 forward.

Is O'Sullivan really at top six forward? I would argue he isn't. And I said maybe the Sens ask for him over Pisani. I didn't write it was a necessity. And Cogliano isn't a top six forward either. He has never scored 50 points yet. He will but he hasn't yet.

I would give up O'Sullivan as the third piece of the package before I'd give up Eberle that is for sure.

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#90 speeds
June 10 2009, 12:05PM
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If the price on Heatley is as high as some are willing to pay, for example Gilbert, Cogliano, and #10 OV, and EDM is considering it, wouldn't EDM be better off exploring whether Tampa would be willing to move #2 OV for that package?

It's true that Tavares or Hedman would be unlikely to be as good as Heatley next season, but they would also be younger and improving while providing (potentially) better cap value and improved cap flexibililty since they would be ~ 4 mil cheaper in terms of cap hit for 3 years.

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#91 Ogden Brother
June 10 2009, 12:08PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Archaeologuy wrote: No way the Oil are giving up 3 roster players if 1 of those guys is named Cogs or Gags. Not a chance. At the top of your article you noted that in recent History the team losing the Star doesnt get close to value, and a lot of the guys you’ve highlighted are pretty good deals for the Sens. Frolov and Johnson. Thats a duo that could get a lot around the league, and probably a little overkill to get a player who is demanding out of his current team. What is Cogliano’s top out rate at? 30 Goals? 40? I think probably around 30. Is he really that much better than Lupul? I think you are overvaluing the Oiler prospects, which happens a lot in Edmonton. Heatley is 28 and a proven sniper. He is a top-five goal scorer in this league. You guys might love Cogliano and Gagner, but they haven’t even scored 20 yet, and who knows if they will score 40 or 50. They might, but the odds are they won’t. So why is that overvaluing Heatley. He has proven he can score 50 and he is in the prime of his career. Frolov and Johnson aren’t as good as you seem to think. Johnson was moved once already, and he is a headcase. Frolov is a decent scorer, but more of a complimentary player than a dominant one. Jonathan Willis wrote: Gilbert, Cogliano and O’Sullivan is too high a price too pay, mostly because of the cap; that’s three cheap, effective guys for one big scorer - and the Oilers are going to need cheap, effective guys. Gilbert $4 million, O’Sullivan $2.9 and Cogliano one year left at 850,000. That is more than Heatley and Cogliano will be looking for a raise next year. The Oilers have to rid themselves of some forwards, and O’Sullivan is already on team #3. THere is a reason for that. I take the guarantee in Heatley now, rather than wonder if O’Sullivan or Cogliano will ever become first line players. Jonathan Willis wrote: Gilbert, Cogliano/O’Sullivan, and Eberle. Why are you rating O’Sullivan that much higher than Eberle? O’Sullivan hasn’t panned out to being anything more than a bottom end 2nd liner right now. Eberle could be that or he could be less, but I can guarantee you that the Oilers would consider moving Eberle a bigger cost than O’Sullivan.

O'sully is a bottom end 2nd liner? He's listed as a C, but his 43 points this year would put him tied for 35th amoungst LW and tied for 39th amoungst RW

Last year his 53 would have put him tied for 22nd amoungst LW and tied for 25th amoungst RW. Take into account that he's a complete player and I'd say he's at least a top end 2nd liner, possibly a bottom end 1st liner.

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#92 Ogden Brother
June 10 2009, 12:13PM
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Also, if Vinny is being actively shopped. This lowers the value for both players. Supply and demand, two big ticket high end players in their late 20's available... only some many teams looking for one.

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#93 Archaeologuy
June 10 2009, 12:14PM
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@ Jason Gregor: Well we both agree that O'Sullivan should be part of the package. I think O'Sull could be a top 6 in Ottawa. He plays both PP and PK and after the big 3 the next highest scoring forward had 32 points. Nilsson and his 29 points would have made the cut.

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#94 Jonathan Willis
June 10 2009, 12:23PM
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@ Jason Gregor:

Based on a handful of games in Edmonton, you could argue that O'Sullivan isn't top-six. Based on two years in L.A., that argument isn't there; he's been playing top-six minutes in both of the past seasons.

As for his scoring numbers, they seem low because he's not much of a powerplay producer. He's easily a top-six player at even-strength, at least based on scoring and I'd argue that his two-way game is quite good as well.

Finally, O'Sullivan is further along than Eberle and relatively cheap, and he was scoring more goals than Eberle at the same age in a comparable league for a miserable team. I'd be surprised if Eberle turns out to as good as O'Sullivan has.

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#95 Mike Krushelnyski
June 10 2009, 12:27PM
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speeds wrote:

If the price on Heatley is as high as some are willing to pay, for example Gilbert, Cogliano, and #10 OV, and EDM is considering it, wouldn’t EDM be better off exploring whether Tampa would be willing to move #2 OV for that package?

No.

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#96 Librarian Mike
June 10 2009, 12:36PM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

I’d be surprised if Eberle turns out to as good as O’Sullivan has.

That statement scares me, considering how the general attitude is that he's supposed to be a star for the Oilers. Well, as long as he isn't Steve Kelly I'll be happy.

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#97 Chris
June 10 2009, 12:36PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Cogs is 21 yrs old. He will get stronger, he will get bigger. Saying he cant play the Wing because he wont be able to use his speed is crazy. There are a hundred examples of fast players playing on the wing. No one said he would be on the 1st line either. He can play the RW on the 2nd line. Whose spot will he be taking? I also heard that he was lost on the wing, but he wont have a choice if the Oilers get themselves a 3rd line C this off season.

Did you even read my comment?

Cogs has great breakaway speed. I said: His lateral speed is nothing special. I referneced Hemsky... who is said to be the Oilers "best" skater by the skating coach and is known to have exceptional lateral movement. It is not "crazy" to say that a player can't fully exploit unique breakaway speed from the boards; It's common sense; particularly if the speed is not accompamied with strong lateral movement.

I also never said anything about Cogliano playing on the first line. I'm not sure where you got that. I was pointing out that right wingers generally play in less traffic. Again I referenced Hemsky. I was in no way saying Cogliano should play first line left wing... He's not even close to being ready for first line responsibility.

I did, however, say that Cogliano would most likely line up on the left. (A comment you ignored) Here is my reasoning: Cogliano like Erik Cole shoots left. However, unlike Erik Cole, Cogliano is not a powerforward who will use his body to sheild the puck when driving to the net from his offwing. Cogliano is more of a classic left shooting, left winger who ususally likes to quick release from the forehand up close: This is why he needs to play on the left side. (Unless you don't want to see him score.) Like I said, there is more traffic on the left. I can almost guarantee Cogliano will have concussion problems humping the left boards, or will have a ten goal season humping the right.

To just say he can play any position upfront doesn't make it true. Whether Cogliano grows twenty pound this offseason reamains to be seen. (Think he'll be as fast if this is the case?) The simple fact is: Cogliano is most effective at center. That is why he plays there. If you play Cogliano all season on the wing: expect injury problems and decreased production.

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#98 Jonathan Willis
June 10 2009, 12:38PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

And JW I made it clear in my post that I didn’t want to gues who would be interested, rather what teams have to offer. Depending on the cost teams will have interest.

Fair enough; I wasn't criticizing your premise, just thinking out loud.

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#99 B-rad
June 10 2009, 12:42PM
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Wow....I love reading this site, I was just on Ecklunds site to see what he has written, what a f-ing joke! His rumors are of calgary getting heatly and j-bo, and signing cammellari while only losing phaneuf......wow.

This is the only believable hockey site left.

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#100 Jonathan Willis
June 10 2009, 12:42PM
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Librarian Mike wrote:

That statement scares me, considering how the general attitude is that he’s supposed to be a star for the Oilers. Well, as long as he isn’t Steve Kelly I’ll be happy.

Eberle @ 18: 61GP - 35G - 39A - 74PTS O'Sullivan @ 18: 53GP - 43G - 39A - 82PTS

And O'Sullivan played for a worse team. If the Oilers seriously have Eberle as well clear of O'Sullivan, I think they're overrating Eberle.

Let's not forget that O'Sullivan hasn't maxed out; he was one of the youngest players available in the 2003 draft and he's not even 25 yet.

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