A look at last season's games
Jason Gregor
July 20 2009 11:46PM
The Oilers aren’t blessed with an abundance of proven scorers at this point, in fact as of today they don’t have one 30-goal scorer on the roster. If you don’t have true top-end talent then you need to play a more physical style to be successful.
JW had an interesting take on how hits relate to success, and while some of the top teams can get away with not being as physical, a team like the Oilers needs to be physical, because rarely do they have more proven skill than the opposition.
Let’s take a look at the game-by-game results for wins/loses and hits. (home in bold)
Oct 12th… 3-2 win v. Col… Get out hit 16-15
Oct 15th… 3-2 win @ Ana… Get out hit 27-20
Oct 17th… 4-3 win @ CGY… Get out hit 22-15
Oct 18th… 3-2 win v. CGY…Out hit Flames 21-8
Oct 22nd…3-0 loss @ Chic…Tied in hits with 17
Oct 23rd… 4-1 loss @ Col…Out hit Avs 16-11
Oct 25th…6-3 loss @ Van…Out hit Canucks 21-8
Oct 27th… 1-0 loss v. Bos…Get out hit 13-11…
Oct 30th… 3-1 loss @ Nash… Get out hit 14-12…
Nov 01st…3-1 win @ Car…Get out hit 26-21…
Nov 02nd…5-4 win @ Phil…Get out hit 16-8…
Nov 05th… 5-4 loss @ CBJ…Get out hit 26-18…
Nov 06th…5-4 loss @ Pitt…Get out hit 25-19
Nov 09th… 2-1 win @ N.J…Get out hit 17-15…
Nov 10th… 3-2 win @ NYR… Get out hit 31-22… (SO Win)
Nov 13th…5-2 loss v. Tor…Get out hit 13-5
Nov 15th… 3-2 loss v. Col…Get out hit 10-6 (SO loss)
Nov 17th…4-0 loss @ Det… Get out hit 18-16
Nov 18th… 7-2 win @ CBJ…Out hit Jackets 22-19
Nov 20th…4-3 loss v. Det…. Get out hit 10-8
Nov 26th…2-1 loss v. L.A… Get out hit 22-18
Nov 29th… 4-2 win @ St.L… Out hit Blues 21-16
Nov 30th…4-3 loss @ Dall…Get out hit 25-17
Dec 03rd… 5-2 win v. Dall…Out hit Stars 9-6
Dec 05th…5-4 win @ L.A…Out hit Kings 32-25 (SO win)
Dec 06th… 3-2 win @ S.J… Out hit Sharks 16-15
Dec 11th…2-0 loss v. Flor… Get out hit 12-11
Dec 13th…3-0 win v. Van…Out hit Canucks 17-11
Dec 16th…9-2 loss v. Chic…Tied in hits with eight
Dec 17th…4-2 loss @ Van…Get out hit 13-10
Dec 19th… 3-2 loss v. Ana…Out hit Ducks 15-11 (SO loss)
Dec 22nd… 4-2 win v. Pho…Tied in hits with 22
Dec 26th … 3-2 win @ Van…Get out hit 21-12
Dec 28th… 5-2 win v. Nash… Get out hit 10-9
Dec 30th… 3-2 loss v. Ott… Out hit Senators 17-11
Dec 31st… 6-4 loss @ Cgy… Out hit Flames 23-18
Jan 03rd…4-1 win v. Dall… Out hit Stars 19-13
Jan 05th…3-2 win v. NYI… Out hit Islanders 20-18
Jan 07th… 4-2 loss v. Van… Out hit Canucks 19-14
Jan 09th… 4-1 loss v. S.J…. Get out hit 15-10
Jan 11th… 2-1 win v. Blues… Out hit Blues 18-16
Jan 13th… 5-2 win @ Wash… Get out hit 16-13
Jan 15th… 5-1 loss @ Minn…Get out hit 24-18
Jan 16th… 3-2 win @ Col… Get out hit 25-16
Jan 18th… 6-3 win v. Pho… Get out hit 18-7
Jan 20th … 4-3 win v. CBJ…Out hit Jackets 18-13
Jan 27th… 10-2 loss v. Buff… Out hit Sabres 11-5
Jan 30th… 3-1 win v. Minn… Out hit Wild 17-13
Feb 01st… 2-1 loss v. Nash… Out hit Preds 24-17
Feb 03rd… 3-1 loss v. Chic… Out hit Hawks 27-17
Feb 05th… 2-1 win @ St.L… Out hit Blues 25-22 (SO Win)
Feb 07th… 8-3 loss @ Det … Get out hit 16-15
Feb 08th… 3-2 loss @ Minn… Get out hit 30-9 (SO loss)
Feb 11th… 7-2 win v. Mon… Get out hit 27-11
Feb 14th…3-2 win @ L.A… Get out hit 41-33 (SO win)
Feb 16th… 3-1 win @ Pho… tied in hits with 28.
Feb 17th… 4-2 loss @ S.J… Get out hit 30-20
Feb 19th… 4-2 loss @ Dal… Get out hit 48-34 (a very odd number).
Feb 21st… 3-2 loss v. CGY… Out hit Flames 33-24 (SO loss)
Feb 24th… 5-3 win v. T.B… Get out hit 12-9
Feb 26th… 1-0 loss v. CBJ… Out hit Jackets 31-27
Feb 28th… 3-2 win v. Minn… Out hit Wild 16-12
Mar 03rd… 6-5 loss @ Nash…Get out hit 25-19
Mar 05th… 4-2 loss @ Ott…tied in hits with 26
Mar 07th… 4-1 win @ Tor…Get out hit 33-27
Mar 10th… 4-3 loss @ Mtl… Get out hit 24-15
Mar 12th…4-3 loss v. Atl… Out hit Thrashers 16-13
Mar 14th…3-2 loss v. Col.. Out hit Avs 16-8
Mar 17th…2-1 win v. St.L… Out hit Blues 13-10 (SO win)
Mar 19th…8-1 win @ Col… Get out hit 16-10
Mar 20th…5-4 win @ Chic…Get out hit 19-15 ( SO win)
Mar 22nd…3-0 loss @ Minn. Out hit Wild 14-11
Mar 24th…3-2 loss v. Det… Get out hit 13-12
Mar 26th…3-2 loss @ Pho… Get out hit 29-21
Mar 27th…5-3 win @ Ana… Out hit Ducks 15-14
Mar 29th…3-2 loss v. Minn.. Out hit Wild 19-11
Mar 31st…5-3 loss v. Ana… Out hit Ducks 22-20
Apr 2nd…. 2-1 loss v. SJ…. Out hit Sharks 16-12
Apr 4th… 5-3 win v. Van… Out hit Canucks 15-14
Apr 7th… 2-1 loss v. LA… Get out hit 21-14
Apr 10th…5-1 win v. CGY.. Get out hit 13-8
Apr 11th…4-1 loss @ CGY. Get out hit 13-9
Here’s a breakdown of how they fared when getting out hit.
- At home…they went 6-9 when getting out hit.
- On the road…they went 13-15 when getting out hit.
- Combined they were 19-24 when getting out hit.
When they had more hits than the opposition the results were as follows:
- At home…they went 11-13 when they had more hits.
- On the road… they went 6-4 when dishing out more hits.
- Combined they were 17-17 when they had more hits.
When they were tied in hits they went:
- At home…they went 1-1
- On the road…they went 1-2
- Combined they were 2-3 when even in hits.
Ten times they went to a shootout, and hits are clearly irrelevant during a shoot out, so that’s why I put those games in parenthesis. When they got out hit in SO games they went 3-2 and when they out hit the opposition they went 3-2 as well.
Pat Quinn stated he wants his team to be more physical next year and harder to play against, and after crunching the numbers from last year it’s clear they should be. While they were only .500 when out hitting the opposition last year, they still had more success than when they got out hit.
It was also interesting to note that in their 41 home games they averaged 15.4 hits per game and went 18-23 at home. On the road they averaged 18.4 hits per game, which is interesting.
Are the stats guys at Rexall very strict when handing out hits, or were the Oilers that much less physical at home? I’d say it’s a bit of both. I went to every home game and many nights there was severe lack of emotion in the Oilers’ game, but I’d say that in Edmonton the stats crew is more strict when handing out hits compared to other buildings.
Regardless of which rink crew was tracking the hits, the fact is in games where the Oilers out hit the opposition they had more success on the scoreboard.
Leadership questioned
I spoke with Jarret Stoll yesterday to clear up the rumour regarding his break up with Rachel Hunter. There is no truth to the rumour that Hunter found out via email.
"That is complete BS. We had been talking about it for awhile and unfortunately it didn't work out," said Stoll. "Rachel and I are still friends and there is no truth that I broke the news to her via email. Anyone who believes that isn't very smart."
Guests did receive an email saying the wedding was off, but it came days after Stoll and Hunter had agreed to part ways.
I think Pat Quinn will have a huge impact on this team.
His relentless forechecking style will translate to more hits for sure. And what's great about those kind of hits is they create turnovers in the offensive zone.
I'm interested to see if he can get some sandpaper out of Tom Gilbert. To me, when you're a 6'3" 215 lb d-man, you gotta throw around the body a bit. Same with Grebeshkov, but he's a little more physical than Gilbert
Interesting. Surprisingly I thought the stats would be much more skewed towards being a more productive team when out hitting the opposition.
While it's true they were better, it wasn't as drastic as I had imagined.
It makes one realize that maybe going after only tough and gritty forwards isn't the answer. Go out and land skill, but have those players who can punish an opposing team.
I wonder how many of those hits were Eric Cole? I always thought he was one of the Oilers who put in effort every night including taking the body.
OFF TOPIC: Hey Gregor, anything to report coming out of the Rookie Camp? I watched a video on the Oilers website and the scouts were gushing over Peckham and Eberle, which I'm going to take as an excellent sign.
i just saw salary numbers and i don't if they are accurate.if they are, holy crap we are paying horcoff 7 million!
Sure, whatever Stoll.
@ hatecrime: Sigh, 5.5 cap hit, front loaded contract. 7 mil this year yea.
Press the RIGHT arrow near salaries on NHLnumbers.com heh
Jarret Stoll...
There was I time, I thought he would captain the Oil..
Then he got his "bell rung", Then he got traded, Then he got engaged..
Now the news, that the wedding has been called off.. It seems he has recovered from his concussion. (looks like just in time, too)
I hated seeing Stoll (and Greene, for that matter) get traded, although the return was unquestionably excellent.
We miss his faceoff prowess, physical game, and big right-handed shot.
Greggor you can't have it both ways. They go after the pure sniper but that doesn't address the "tougher to play against" issue.
You're always saying they're better with Healtey and his offence which they are but where does the physical game come in?
They didn't resign Glencross, who could have been a decent 3rd liner/energy guy. Brodziak was a much better player with Glencross there. Now he's gone too.
They loaded up on puck moving Dmen instead of maybe trying to acquire a big nasty, stay at home type. Staois while has a tonne of heart, is slow and is caught out of position 90% of the time. Peckhem would bring a tougher presence.
While everyone gets bent out of shape over Penners contract, they should be getting upset over his snowflake style. Dump him to the pressbox and let him watch MacIntyre dominate that top line winger spot for 30 games. Hemmer and Horcoffs ice would open up considerably.
With what they have on the roster right now, they can't score and they can't run other teams through the boards. This team is so in need of an identity it's almost sickening.
Quinn should be up in Tambelini's office laying the smackdown because of the Motley crew of misfits and underachievers they've acquired!
^^ Well there you have it folks. The Oilers have that 1st line LW right under their nose. "Watch Steve MacIntyre dominate that top line LW spot". Wow.
wow, nice article Jonathan.
Wait a minute, was that Gregor using the numbers like a pencil pusher? It must be a slow day.
RossCreek wrote:
+1
Penner is not the banging, bruising style of winger @roadrunner thinks he should be. He's a big guy, who when motivated to do so, has great hands and has the ability to use his size to an offensive advantage. He has not, and never will use that same girth to be a crushing forechecker. The coaches need to try and further expose the talents he already has, not create a brand new ones.
roadrunner wrote:
Even Smack-attack himself would laugh at that one...Whatever you're smoking, I want some.
RossCreek wrote:
Well he did have one of the best shooting % on the team haha.
I would agree about the Rexall stats crew about being tough. Just watch the shot clock some time when you are at the game. I am a season ticket holder and there are many times when I see shots on net and then, there's no increase in the number of shots.
roadrunner wrote:
This has made my day.
Off topic: kovalev wants heatley to play in ottawa. Can they afford to keep both?
I can't see how they can afford Alfredsson, Spezza, Heatley, Kovalev and Fisher. Something has to give.
roadrunner wrote:
That's because the idiot Staios spent a lot of his time tripping over Roli. Let the goalie mind his net already! How many times were we scored on because Staios was trying to be a goaltender? Too many!!! I, for one, would not be sad to see him go.
Are the stats guys at Rexall very strict when handing out hits, or were the Oilers that much less physical at home?
Read more: http://www.oilersnation.com/2009/07/a-look-at-last-seasons-games/#ixzz0LuVp7NRj
To quote Grant Kerr from the flames radio on hits stats, "I dropped a pencil in the press box. Bent over to pick it up and got credited with a hit."
I don't give a rats ..... about hit count. Make it miserable to: get shots off and shoot in high precentage areas.
I think it would be a great idea to put MacIntyre, Jacque, and Stortini out against the first lines of our divisional opponents for a couple shifts each game.
And RUN them. The Wild have been doing this to us the last couple years with Boogaard, injuring Hemsky in the process.
It's high time the Oilers start taking runs at the other teams top stars. Not a bad idea at all, and I'm sure Quinn will try it.
Jorge R wrote:
Yes. Besides Ottawa's top 6 or 7 players, their line up is not very deep. A very top-heavy line-up. No depth, except on the 1st line.
You guys who pooh-poohed roadrunners idea have to remember other teams try this kind of stuff.
Remember the year Chris Simon potted 29 riding the gun with Adam Oates?
You can't teach great hands, but I'll take a big power forward who will drive to the net over a perimeter player anyday.
That being said, I'm expecting big things from Penner this year. The new coaching staff will surely try and get him to put it all together and become the 02-04 Bertuzzi that we know he can be.
DanMan wrote:
Honestly I think there is nothing wrong with putting Stortini out there with whoever our new 3rd line center is and Moreau. By the end of the year Storts was playing excellent hockey and showed he could keep up with the tough competition.
Mac and Jacques, we'll just leave them on the bench against guys like Iginla and the Sedins.
roadrunner wrote:
HA! I almost fell out of my chair laughing. I can't believe someone thought it let alone wrote that.
roadrunner wrote:
HA! I almost fell out of my chair laughing. I can't believe someone thought it let alone wrote it.
DanMan wrote:
Which one of those guys is going to be able to catch up with top end talent? They can't always run other 4th liners. Not all first line players have Hemsky's deathwish in corners.
jeanshorts wrote:
Hard to gauge because they did a lot of technical drills more than one-on-one drills. I don't see Eberle making the team this year, I just don't see room for him, but he'll get a good look.
Same with Peckham, unless they trade a D-man...if they don't he won't be here to start, which isn't the end of the world for him.
roadrunner wrote:
I don't expect a proven 40 goal man to bring the gritty aspect. He is hard to play against strictly because guys have to be solid defensively against him and his line or more than likely he'll score.
Who said you need grit on your top line? Surely not I. I wrote that teams like Detroit, who are blessed with a high level of skill don't need to be overly physical because they have the puck more often. Victoria wrote:
Are you bitter? Tsk tsk
@ MattL:
Are you thick, man? In the north-american game you cant just skate away from the big guys.
How did Gagner get concussed last year?
The hit on Hemsky wasn't in the corner, it was a loose puck on the half wall.
If you're suggesting that top players don't skate for loose pucks, there's no hope for you, man
@ Jason Gregor:
This is out of context in this article, but have you been able to track down anything about how the new CRTC regulations regarding broadcasting policies has changed TSN's and Sportsnet's coverage? (I asked you about this in a comment last week, too.)
I've sent emails to both broadcasters through the contacts posted on their websites, but haven't heard back from them.
@ Andrew W: You wanna know if the Oiler games won't be blacked out in Toronto this year? Correct?
@ Jason Gregor:
Yeah, that's the most important part. It drives me nuts missing all of the Sportsnet broadcasts here (although I'm a couple of hours out of Toronto).
Hey Gregor, just want to know how Jake Daniels is doing these days? He's a good guy and Im sure he'll land on his feet.
tsn is reporting we have signed Grebeskov to a 1 year 3.15 million deal.
@ DanMan:
You're defending Roadrunner, and calling me thick? Ok... I'll take that.
Great, put our fourth line out against other teams' stars. Did you notice that aside from a couple of games where Boogaard crushed Hemmer, we never saw him be a big impact in games since then? Why would they abandon such a great idea? Oh yeah, because 4th line goons are slow and get scored on a lot.
I don't disagree that we should be going after skilled players physically, I just don't think MacIntyre and Stortini are the guys to do it. They'll get beat worse than the Jackson 5.
@ Andrew W:
get a dish, problem solved
Jack Bauer wrote:
It's done - http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=285257
Thanks @Jack!
Jack Bauer wrote:
It's about time. Too bad its only one year tho. I was hoping we could get him locked up somewhere in the 3yr/9mil range. I'm guessing he's gonna try to light it up this year and push for Gilbert dollars next summer. But with the cap going down and Gagner and Cogs (if he's still here) to re-sign, could this be Grebs last year as an Oiler???
Nick Dynasty wrote:
Yup, poop term for Grebs...though it might keep him motivated.
Is Grebeshkov a free agent after this year then? Or still an rfa?
Ugh! Am I over reacting or does the Grebs signing sound like a written Guarantee that this is his last season in Copper and Blue? :(
@ MattL:
I didn't call you thick, I asked if you were thick. You were the one trying to discredit me in the first place.
I didn't they should be hard-matched all game. I said one to two shifts per game. OBVIOUSLY, 98% of the time one of our top 3 lines will play against the other teams #1. I'm not saying we should give the 4th line anything more than 7-10 minutes a game (although Quinn almost always rolls 4 lines). One or two shifts a game wont kill us, and it can have a real impact on the other top players (if only psycologically).
It seems like anytime someone comes up with an original idea in the Oilogisphere, MacT's flock of sheep come rushing in with their rules and regulations on which guys can and can't EVER be placed in certain situations.
But, I understand, 8 years under the regime can kinda get your head stuck in a box when it comes to new ideas.
Jack Bauer wrote:
Makes you wonder what happened during negotiations. For close to two months it seemed like the general consensus was a multi year deal was there to be made.
DanMan wrote:
That's a really wierd post, 90% of the posts here are people complaining about the way MacT used players.
MattDynasty wrote:
Simply, Heatley came in and everything was put on hold. Tambo didn't want to sign anyone until he knew what was happening with his cap situation.
I'm not sure what this proves. Those numbers are within statistical tolerance to say that your team's physical style has no affect on the outcome.
DanMan wrote:
How do you know I'm NOT MacT, lurking because I'm bored?
For the record, I like the idea of Storts smashing Iginla through the camera hole in the end boards night after night, I just think it's a bit of a pipe dream most nights, and you have a serious risk of giving up a goal.
Ogden Brother's right, I don't think the majority of readers here are MacT disciples. Were you not around for FMNF?
DanMan wrote:
By the way, I don't think you have "credits" to "dis". There's a difference between arguments and name calling.
MattL wrote:
For the record, and I say this with an unblemished record of Oiler diehardness, Iginla would hurt Stortini if he tried to do anything stupid like that. The man is not small and is tough as balls.
Sorry for my sins.