Do You See What I See edition IV

Jason Gregor
July 06 2009 12:05AM

Would Blair Betts be a good roster addition for the Oil?
Would Blair Betts be a good roster addition for the Oil?
The past two weeks have been a blur for me.

I find out the citizens at OilersNation wanted more Draft coverage so they paid to send me to Montreal, then Brodziak gets traded (okay not a major story but Oilers fans are so passionate that even a trade involving #51 gets people fired up) and then Heatley-gate.

Just when you think you know how passionate Oilers fans, they do something that makes me shake my head in admiration and wonder. The Draft was awesome and then the Heatley fallout had such a wide range of emotions and opinions it was fascinating.

I finally had some time to breathe this weekend and here’s what I’ve seen from the past two weeks.

Winning faceoffs isn't key to a good PK

Many Oilers feel Blair Betts would be a great addition to the line-up because he’s a good faceoff guy and a good penalty killer. And while his penalty killing is good, he isn’t a dominant guy on draws.

He was 49.3% in the dot last year, and while on the PK he won 149 and lost 196 faceoffs which is 43.1%.

I’m not ripping Betts, rather it seems that winning faceoffs doesn’t equate to PK success.

The Rangers killed off 87.8% of their penalties last year, which was tops in the league. As a team they won 258 and lost 350 draws, which is only 42%, while down a man. And Betts took more than half of those draws.

The Rangers only allowed 40 PP goals last year, while the Oilers gave up 76. The Oilers were 77% on the PK, while the Rangers were 87%. The Oilers allowed almost twice as many goals in virtually the same amount of chances.

The Oilers were 46% on faceoffs when down a man. They won 38 more draws than the Rangers did as a team, but gave up 36 more goals. The Wild were also 87% on the PK this year and they only won 45% of their draws. The odds are you will lose more draws on the PK strictly because a team has one less guy to battle for the puck if the centreman is tied up, but faceoffs were not the reason the Oilers sucked on the PK. They lost too many battles in front of the net.

In 2007/2008 the Oilers were 5th in penalty killing. They gave up 56 goals and as a team were 47% in the draws that year. The only won 18 more faceoffs that year, than they did this past season. Many of us thought it was the faceoff prowess of Stoll and Reasoner that was missed on the PK, but in fact the faceoffs were almost even. The problem was positioning, and toughness on the puck.

Lombardi surprise

Kings GM, Dean Lombardi made it clear in June that he would add a big contract in the form of a sniper come July. Many thought it would be Marian Gaborik, Marian Hossa, Martin Havlat or even Dany Heatley, but he surprised everyone when he acquired Ryan Smyth on Saturday.

While Smyth doesn’t possess the flashy skill like those other four, he’ll bring a dimension the Kings need up front; Grit and determination.

Last year only Alexander Frolov (12) and Jarret Stoll (10) had double digits in PP goals for the Kings. They were a respectable 14th on the PP, but they didn’t score many garbage goals, and that is Smyth’s forte.

Smyth has three years left on his deal, and his $6.25 million cap hit is overpriced, but I suspect he’ll be a nice fit in LA. He scored 26 goals last year, without Paul Stastny or Joe Sakic for most of the year. The Kings top six will include Smyth, Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown, Frolov, Justin Williams and possibly Oscar Moller.

The Kings gave up two D-men, but they have lots of talent on the backend, and this deal will make the Kings another team that will push the Oilers for the final two playoff spots.

UFA winners, losers, and ?

  • Kudos to Chuck Fletcher, the rookie GM in Minnesota, who made some solid signings last week. Greg Zanon is a steal at $1.93 million for the next three years, and Havlat at $5 million looks solid. Zanon will play 20 minutes a night and be a solid contributor, while Havlat will bring some excitement to Minnesota.
  • Hossa, John Madden and Tomas Kopecky will help the Hawks next year, but Dale Tallon will have to be a cap genius next summer. Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane and Jonathon Toews will all need new contracts next year. The Hawks have committed $35 million for ten players in 2010/2011, and with the cap going down they will have to move some bodies. I bet Patrick Sharp and Dave Bolland could be on the move next year.
  • The Lightning needed some help on their blueline, and Brian Lawton made some decent signings. Matt Walker played over 16 minutes a night in Chicago last year, and for only $1.7 he will give the Bolts some much needed toughness on the backend. Lawton is praying that Mattias Ohlund retires before his contract expires, but he is great outlet passer and with all the firepower up front in Tampa he’ll play a big role. Toss in Victor Hedman and the Bolts could have a big turn around. That is if the Owners can play nice with one another.
  • The Flyers have the best offensive depth in the league, a trifecta of blueliners with Kimmo Timonen, Braydon Coburn and the Human Rake, but once again they have major questions in goal. Ray Emery and Brian Boucher, are they better than Martin Biron and Antero Niittymaki? Unless a year in exile has given Emery a better perspective on life I don’t see the Flyers getting close to the Cup next year.
  • Was Bob Gainey partying too much with his new owners? He trades for Scott Gomez and his horrendous $7.3 million dollar contract, and then signs Brian Gionta and Mike Cammalleri. The Habs were small last year, but somehow Gainey made them smaller by signing these three smurfs. They might do okay in the regular season, but in the playoffs they will get man handled.
  • I like Khabibulin a lot more than Biron, Craig Anderson or Scott Clemmensen, but the 4th year of his deal could hurt the Oilers. His signing shows me that one of JDD or DD probably won’t be here next year. If JDD plays solid in his 20-28 games, and DD is stellar in Springfield I’d bet that DD would want a chance to play in the show, and both can’t play in Edmonton.
  • Rick Nash at $7.8 million dollars for the next eight years is a horrible signing. Nash is solid but he has never scored more than 41 goals, he has never had an 80 point season and he isn’t close to being a point-a-game player over the course of his career. Nash has done nothing to deserve that type of money, and unless he becomes a big scorer that contract will hurt the Blue Jackets for years.
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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#1 Kyle
July 06 2009, 12:16AM
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I like your points Gregor....I must ask you is there any talk about signing another body? or do we need to wait for some bodies to get shipped out before we see anything....

having the 3rd and 4th line centers as malholtra and betts would look real good and add instant help to our penalty kill...Not sold on pouliot and i think brule would be better off on the wing..

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#2 HollaHollaHo'sFoADolla
July 06 2009, 12:21AM
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Amen on Nash, I thought Heater was Yashin 2.0

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#3 nullterm
July 06 2009, 12:42AM
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Yeah, I thought Nash would have made a nice Heatley sub if the Jackets couldn't sign him. Then the numbers came out and "WHOA, no thank you!" Amazing how a contract can make even a great player look like something you don't want.

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#4 Joey Moss
July 06 2009, 01:42AM
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man it is sooooooooOOOOOoooo frustrating to look at the kings top 6 forwards and then look at the oilers in comparison

ffs the oil have been in perpetual rebuilding mode (even the year they went to the cup final i heard that term tossed around) and they havent had a crop of forwards that nice since i dont know when. what is even worse, as Jonathan Willis has pointed out, that the team doesn't even have a respectable bottom six. sometimes this team is so depressing to be a fan of.

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#5 jeanshorts
July 06 2009, 02:08AM
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The Habs will get demolished by the Leafs (sadly) in the regular season and even more so by the Bruins in the playoffs. Like you said Gainey must have been doing some serious drinking because all these signings make absolutely no sense. And on top of that he's let his 3 top D-men go the least 3 seasons. If he's not being hung from the Molson Center rafters after next season I'll be surprised.

I've been questioning Tallon's moves since the whole Khabibulin/Huet fiasco, but next season, more than ever, are they really up against it.

And 7.8 for a guy who's only scored 40 goals once is INSANITY. Can anyone please explain the hype around this guy? Sure he's a big body with decent hands, but his numbers are anything but elite.

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#6 SumOil
July 06 2009, 03:14AM
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I think the one of the biggest reason our PK sucked was that we were horrible at covering the point. Too many times, the one timer was available from the point or the slot. During the playoffs, Don Cherry showed a video (in his segment of coach's corner) regarding an effective PK. It stressed on how forwards can press the point and effectively either take away the point shot or stick check the puck away from the D-man. Such a strategy completely lacked in the Oiler PK and everyone collapsed all too often.

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#7 Homie
July 06 2009, 03:35AM
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jeanshorts wrote:

And 7.8 for a guy who’s only scored 40 goals once is INSANITY. Can anyone please explain the hype around this guy? Sure he’s a big body with decent hands, but his numbers are anything but elite.

You guys have no clue. If you exclude his first year as a 19 year old, he has scored on a pace of 39+ goals every year except 2006-07 - for COLUMBUS including 40+ twice. 2005-06 he only scored 31 goals but that was in 54 games, which is a 47 goal pace. With the emergence of some other skilled players with CBJ I can see him scoring 45 to 55 goals for the next 5 years at least barring injuries.

No doubt it is a slight overpay, but the Jackets need to build around someone. And he's only 25. I believe in paying for potential - not waiting until he is 30 and has his best years behind him. Its not like Crosby and Malkin had years of production before the Penguins signed them to long term, high priced contracts.

Nash>>>>Heatley

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#8 Jeremy
July 06 2009, 05:59AM
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Correct me if I'm wrong, but if Ohlund retires before his contract is up, but after he turns 35, aren't the Bolts on the hook for the whole contract?

If that is the case (again, please correct me if I have this wrong) wouldn't Lawton be hoping and praying that he doesn't retire before the contract is up?

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#9 BUCK75
July 06 2009, 06:32AM
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Blair Betts would be a good signing - almost typical though as most of the high end talent from Edmonton doesn't seem want any part of Edmonton.

I think he would improve our 3rd line, give us another option for faceoffs & maybe give Horcoff less PK icetime. #10 will need more ofensive icetime if we have any hope of him ever performing to his salary offensively, most likely a LW who can score too. I guess it depends on who will play here & how much they cost between Malhotra or Betts.

I think it is funny how everyone seems to think the cap might drop in 2012/2011 & guys are still getting mad cash. If the Nash signing is a hometown discount, I would hate to see how much they have to pay to get someone to set him up to score.

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#10 oilersordeath
July 06 2009, 07:26AM
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We might as well face it boys we are going to have to rely within the system because we will never be able to sign any high profile players.

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#11 LOIL
July 06 2009, 07:31AM
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Jeremy wrote:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but if Ohlund retires before his contract is up, but after he turns 35, aren’t the Bolts on the hook for the whole contract? If that is the case (again, please correct me if I have this wrong) wouldn’t Lawton be hoping and praying that he doesn’t retire before the contract is up?

A team is only on the hook for the entire contracts cap hit if they sign a player to a NEW contract AFTER he is 35 years old. Signing a playing who is younger than 35 to a contract that takes him past 35 does not put you on the hook for the entire contracts cap hit if the guy retires.

This is why i cant understand 4 years to Khabi. Since he signed a new contract when he was 35 the oil are stuck with his cap hit until he is 39 no matter if he retires or not.

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#12 Ogden Brother
July 06 2009, 08:11AM
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I think the bets thing isn't so much about him being a great 3rd line center (or even FO guy) it's that he's soooo much betteer then our # 2/3/4 in our end/FO/PK ect.

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#13 Cam
July 06 2009, 08:20AM
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Homie wrote:

You guys have no clue. If you exclude his first year as a 19 year old, he has scored on a pace of 39+ goals every year except 2006-07 - for COLUMBUS including 40+ twice. 2005-06 he only scored 31 goals but that was in 54 games, which is a 47 goal pace. With the emergence of some other skilled players with CBJ I can see him scoring 45 to 55 goals for the next 5 years at least barring injuries. No doubt it is a slight overpay, but the Jackets need to build around someone. And he’s only 25. I believe in paying for potential - not waiting until he is 30 and has his best years behind him. Its not like Crosby and Malkin had years of production before the Penguins signed them to long term, high priced contracts. Nash>>>>Heatley

I like Nash, but comparing him to Crosby and Malkin only proves Gregors point. Crosby had 102 points in his ROOKIE season. I think Malkin had 85 in his Rookie campaign and has had over 100 ever since. Nash hasn't even come close to that and he has had 7 years in the NHL. Despite that, Nash gets a Crosby sized contract. Sorry to break it to you, but that is INSANE.

And Heater has had more than 100 points a few seasons, too. Nash is not Heatley (or he might be worth the money).

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#14 Reagan
July 06 2009, 08:25AM
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I can see why Columbus signed Nash to that rash of a contract. Not only the face of a hockey franchise, but the poster boy too. What I had to laugh at was the outcry from Leaf fans when the news broke! They are more delusional than Oiler fans. Columbus, at any time in that contract is taking a huge chance, because at that price It's almost impossible to move that money anywhere. The Rangers or the Oilers, would be dumb enough to pay that salary.

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#15 cm
July 06 2009, 08:40AM
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I hope the Nash contract makes people think about all the BS about Howson should be GM of the year.

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#16 Prop Jay
July 06 2009, 08:46AM
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Heatley

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#17 Clarkenstein
July 06 2009, 08:48AM
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cm wrote:

I hope the Nash contract makes people think about all the BS about Howson should be GM of the year.

Howson learned from the best...er, worst... the old "overpayer" himself... K.E.V.I.N. L.O.W.E.

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#18 Ogden Brother
July 06 2009, 09:20AM
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Clarkenstein wrote:

cm wrote: I hope the Nash contract makes people think about all the BS about Howson should be GM of the year. Howson learned from the best…er, worst… the old “overpayer” himself… K.E.V.I.N. L.O.W.E.

Makes me wish we had a GM that refused to "overpay" so we could have the current Falcons line-up in the show rather then the Oilers.

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#19 dyckster
July 06 2009, 09:27AM
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I know this is off the Betts subject, but this guy would look good in Oiler silks. if we could convince him to come. Of course we'd still have to move some bodies to clear up cap space. http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=283860. Kovalev will not be returning to The Habs.

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#20 patty
July 06 2009, 09:29AM
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Homie wrote:

I believe in paying for potential - not waiting until he is 30 and has his best years behind him.

That is a dangerous gamble. Remember all the potential Penner had (or has) when he signed the offer sheet? How is all that working out so far? Many people justifed the overpay by saying that it's the nature of an offer sheet (which it is), but also that Penner would be worth it for most of the term of the deal. I sure hope that he will be this year, unless he's traded for Heatley.

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#21 Ogden Brother
July 06 2009, 09:30AM
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patty wrote:

Homie wrote: I believe in paying for potential - not waiting until he is 30 and has his best years behind him. That is a dangerous gamble. Remember all the potential Penner had (or has) when he signed the offer sheet? How is all that working out so far? Many people justifed the overpay by saying that it’s the nature of an offer sheet (which it is), but also that Penner would be worth it for most of the term of the deal. I sure hope that he will be this year, unless he’s traded for Heatley.

Just the fact that his name even comes up in a discussion for a guy the caliber of Heatly should tell us he (Penner) has alot more value then we think.

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#22 patty
July 06 2009, 09:43AM
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@ Ogden Brother: Murray obviously likes him a lot. He signed him as a rookie free agent, and how tried to trade for him, even with the big contract. I think Penner can be much better this year under a new coach, and the trade rumors should light a fire under his ass. If he realizes that he's a buge guy that can be dominant down low, then he'll get 25-30 goals easily. If he continues to be a teddy bear he'll 'only' manage 20ish goals.

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#23 Smokin' Ray
July 06 2009, 09:56AM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

Just the fact that his name even comes up in a discussion for a guy the caliber of Heatly should tell us he (Penner) has alot more value then we think.

I guess the same could be said for Lupul? Maybe Anaheim would take Penner back?

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#24 SierraRacs
July 06 2009, 10:02AM
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oilersordeath wrote:

We might as well face it boys we are going to have to rely within the system because we will never be able to sign any high profile players.

Until the Oilers can show they have the building blocks for a long term winning team, not being able to sign a key free agent is going to be the case. Case in point: Chicago. Chicago has been going through losing seasons for a decade and by working through the drafts and the occasional key signing, they finally put together a winning team. It is then, that they are able to sign Hossa, for a long term deal. Could you imagine just two or three years ago that Chicago would be able to make a signing like that? The Oilers couldn't land Hossa with an insane deal, but two years after our attempt, Chicago can because they have the pieces in place to make a solid run for the cup for at least 4 years... if they can keep their core of young guys together.

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#25 LOIL
July 06 2009, 10:02AM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

patty wrote: Just the fact that his name even comes up in a discussion for a guy the caliber of Heatly should tell us he (Penner) has alot more value then we think.

Penner was in this deal as a salary dump by the Oilers NOT as an asset being moved for Heatley. NIETHER team wants him but Ottawa will get stuck with him if they want to move Heatley to the Oil. Murray knows he has to take salary back from Edmonton in order for Edmonton to take Heatley. So Penner is only in this deal for cap reasons, not because he is of the caliber of a Dany Heatley.

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#26 Ogden Brother
July 06 2009, 10:03AM
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Smokin' Ray wrote:

Ogden Brother wrote: Just the fact that his name even comes up in a discussion for a guy the caliber of Heatly should tell us he (Penner) has alot more value then we think. I guess the same could be said for Lupul? Maybe Anaheim would take Penner back?

I'm just a believer that we arm chair MVP should let the pro's dictate what a players value is. The last couple of weeks have really shown how little we know about what is valued in the NHL.

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#27 Lofty
July 06 2009, 10:04AM
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"The Habs were small last year, but somehow Gainey made them smaller by signing these three smurfs. They might do okay in the regular season, but in the playoffs they will get man handled"

Can't be any smaller than the Oil can they?

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#28 DanMan
July 06 2009, 10:04AM
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On the Blair Betts talk:

I really don't want the Oil to sign any castoffs from other teams.

If they were in any way integral to their team they would've been re-signed by now. It's kind of telling that Betts, Malhotra, Peca, and other names guys have been floating around haven't been offered anything yet.

We have quite a few guys who can compete for the 3rd and 4th center spots (Cogliano, Brule, Pouliot, Schremp, etc.). There needs to be at least a couple forward spots open for training camp competition. Who knows what the new coaching staff will see in these guys. We certainly have lots of talent and former first round draft picks waiting to be resurrected by Pat Quinn and Tom Renney.

There are too many contracts on the books as it is.

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#29 Ogden Brother
July 06 2009, 10:04AM
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LOIL wrote:

Ogden Brother wrote: patty wrote: Just the fact that his name even comes up in a discussion for a guy the caliber of Heatly should tell us he (Penner) has alot more value then we think. Penner was in this deal as a salary dump by the Oilers NOT as an asset being moved for Heatley. NIETHER team wants him but Ottawa will get stuck with him if they want to move Heatley to the Oil. Murray knows he has to take salary back from Edmonton in order for Edmonton to take Heatley. So Penner is only in this deal for cap reasons, not because he is of the caliber of a Dany Heatley.

Right, Smid and Cogs value is soooo high that we needed to reduce their value in order to = Heatly.

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#30 Ogden Brother
July 06 2009, 10:06AM
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SierraRacs wrote:

oilersordeath wrote: We might as well face it boys we are going to have to rely within the system because we will never be able to sign any high profile players. Until the Oilers can show they have the building blocks for a long term winning team, not being able to sign a key free agent is going to be the case. Case in point: Chicago. Chicago has been going through losing seasons for a decade and by working through the drafts and the occasional key signing, they finally put together a winning team. It is then, that they are able to sign Hossa, for a long term deal. Could you imagine just two or three years ago that Chicago would be able to make a signing like that? The Oilers couldn’t land Hossa with an insane deal, but two years after our attempt, Chicago can because they have the pieces in place to make a solid run for the cup for at least 4 years… if they can keep their core of young guys together.

I could imagine, they made a signing very similar to that: Havlat.

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#31 SierraRacs
July 06 2009, 10:07AM
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I really wish the Oilers would get off the want of Heater and perhaps get the best LW that is still a free agent and sign Alex Tanguay. He's 29 and has at least 4-5 years left (if he remains healthy). I've not seen his name come up in any kind of discussion on the fan boards... am I missing something about this guy? (Please be kind, I'm still a noob to posting)

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#32 SierraRacs
July 06 2009, 10:09AM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

I could imagine, they made a signing very similar to that: Havlat.

Well there ya go! Thanks.

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#33 Ogden Brother
July 06 2009, 10:13AM
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SierraRacs wrote:

I really wish the Oilers would get off the want of Heater and perhaps get the best LW that is still a free agent and sign Alex Tanguay. He’s 29 and has at least 4-5 years left (if he remains healthy). I’ve not seen his name come up in any kind of discussion on the fan boards… am I missing something about this guy? (Please be kind, I’m still a noob to posting)

We'd probably need to move 2 bodies up front to fit him in. He's like a softer Hemsky, not sure if the team wants to make a shuffle for that.

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#34 Jason Gregor
July 06 2009, 10:19AM
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On a non-hockey related note, the Rush will announce that Derek Keenan will be their new head coach and GM. Keenan is the cousin of Mike Keenan, and is a former coach and GM of the year in the NLL. He'll be a good hire.

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#35 Nick Dynasty
July 06 2009, 10:26AM
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I still think Malhotra is the guy to get. He's good for 10 goals and 30 points with a positive +/- raiting and near 60% in faceoffs. Let him play 3rd line center and somehow teach Cogs to play wing on the second line. Cogs is too talented to not be playing 2nd line, and too small to be playing 3rd line anyway. Unless of course you know what happens...

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#36 Jason Gregor
July 06 2009, 10:27AM
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Kyle wrote:

I must ask you is there any talk about signing another body? or do we need to wait for some bodies to get shipped out before we see anything….

It seems that between now and the start of camp there will be a new body or two coming in and a few going out. But who and when is a mystery. They would love to get a nit nastier and bigger, but I don't see anyone who fits that bill that can play in the top six.

Homie wrote:

No doubt it is a slight overpay, but the Jackets need to build around someone. And he’s only 25. I believe in paying for potential - not waiting until he is 30 and has his best years behind him. Its not like Crosby and Malkin had years of production before the Penguins signed them to long term, high priced contracts.

Crosby had 102 and 120 point seasons his first two years. Malkin had 85, then 106 when he signed his big deal. Nash isn't close to those guys.

Jeremy wrote:

Correct me if I’m wrong, but if Ohlund retires before his contract is up, but after he turns 35, aren’t the Bolts on the hook for the whole contract? If that is the case (again, please correct me if I have this wrong) wouldn’t Lawton be hoping and praying that he doesn’t retire before the contract is up?

Ohlund signed his deal before he was 35, so if he retires afterwards it doesn't count against the cap. It only counts against the cap if a guy signed the original contract after his 35th birthday. Ohlund was 32 when he signed.

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#37 LOIL
July 06 2009, 10:31AM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

LOIL wrote: Ogden Brother wrote: Right, Smid and Cogs value is soooo high that we needed to reduce their value in order to = Heatly.

There is a huge difference between a players skill value and their contract value in a cap world. HUGE. It has nothing to do with "reducing Smid and Cogs value". But I would venture to guess that if Tambi offered Cogs and Smid without Penner then Murray would have preferred that. But I doubt that was offered because the Oilers needed a salary dump to take on Healtey's salary and Penner, being one of the most overpaid players in the NHL, was just that. A huge salary dump.

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#38 Waldorf
July 06 2009, 10:43AM
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@ Jason Gregor:

Hey Gregor,

Any validity to the rumour of Souray going to the Kings? Or is it all baseless speculation?

With Smyth there now, would the Oil be able to pry Frolov out of there?

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#39 Ogden Brother
July 06 2009, 10:47AM
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LOIL wrote:

Ogden Brother wrote: LOIL wrote: Ogden Brother wrote: Right, Smid and Cogs value is soooo high that we needed to reduce their value in order to = Heatly. There is a huge difference between a players skill value and their contract value in a cap world. HUGE. It has nothing to do with “reducing Smid and Cogs value”. But I would venture to guess that if Tambi offered Cogs and Smid without Penner then Murray would have preferred that. But I doubt that was offered because the Oilers needed a salary dump to take on Healtey’s salary and Penner, being one of the most overpaid players in the NHL, was just that. A huge salary dump.

What?

If you say Ott would have preffered just Cogs + Smid but had to take Penner too, you are saying that Penner reduces their value.

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#40 Ogden Brother
July 06 2009, 10:48AM
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Waldorf wrote:

@ Jason Gregor: Hey Gregor, Any validity to the rumour of Souray going to the Kings? Or is it all baseless speculation? With Smyth there now, would the Oil be able to pry Frolov out of there?

I can't see them taking Souray after also adding Smyth. If they did, they would officially be in worse salary cap shape then the Oil.

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#41 Archaeologuy
July 06 2009, 10:50AM
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I think Nash is being undervalued by some of the guys here. He is doing everything by himself in Columbus. The guy got overpayed, but thats because Columbus wont win anything for a long time. The guy is a goal scorer like a Vanek, who might only top out at 80 points in his best season, but will consistently grab around 40 goals. Nash isnt going to be Ovenchkin or Crosby, but he's still an elite talent that likely wont be seen again in Columbus until they luck out in the lottery and draft another one.

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#42 Ogden Brother
July 06 2009, 10:51AM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Homie wrote: No doubt it is a slight overpay, but the Jackets need to build around someone. And he’s only 25. I believe in paying for potential - not waiting until he is 30 and has his best years behind him. Its not like Crosby and Malkin had years of production before the Penguins signed them to long term, high priced contracts. Crosby had 102 and 120 point seasons his first two years. Malkin had 85, then 106 when he signed his big deal. Nash isn’t close to those guys. Jeremy wrote: .

Nash is probably "overpaid" based on comparables, but to the Malkin/Crosby contrast, Nash also gave up almost his whole prime UFA years. Something Crosby/Malkin didn't do. Both Crosby/Malkin could cash in for cap max in 4 and 5 years respectivaly... which could easily be 14+ million/year.

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#43 Kurri_17
July 06 2009, 10:54AM
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Re: Nash -- When I've been to Columbus to watch games (3x over 3 years), half the fans are wearing Nash jerseys. The guys sells a lot of tickets in Columbus and they are not likely to reach the cap limit anyway on an ongoing basis (I could be wrong here). I think for the team, it's a good fit.

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#44 NonMint
July 06 2009, 11:01AM
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LOIL wrote:

Ogden Brother wrote: LOIL wrote: Ogden Brother wrote: Right, Smid and Cogs value is soooo high that we needed to reduce their value in order to = Heatly. There is a huge difference between a players skill value and their contract value in a cap world. HUGE. It has nothing to do with “reducing Smid and Cogs value”. But I would venture to guess that if Tambi offered Cogs and Smid without Penner then Murray would have preferred that. But I doubt that was offered because the Oilers needed a salary dump to take on Healtey’s salary and Penner, being one of the most overpaid players in the NHL, was just that. A huge salary dump.

I don't think this was the case. Murray was rumored to have asked for Penner. A big, physical LW could make the Senators harder to play against, and Murray had Penner in Anaheim so he knew what he was getting.

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#45 legion
July 06 2009, 11:08AM
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I miss mike grier he was a greAt one

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#46 Archaeologuy
July 06 2009, 11:11AM
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As far as the Penner talk goes, all the guy has ever done is score goals and outscore his opponents. If memory serves me correctly he led the team in +/- and over 60 minutes of ice time the Oilers outscore the other team roughly 3-2. He isnt overly physical, he isnt in the best possible shape, but he's effective. Considering how often MacT crapped on the guy for doing his job the only way he knows how, he did an alright job. Obviously he makes too much money, but maybe a new coach will get more out of him. Maybe the new coach wont try to change his game completely, but actually figure out how to use Penner's game to its max.

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#47 LOIL
July 06 2009, 11:34AM
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NonMint wrote:

I don’t think this was the case. Murray was rumored to have asked for Penner. A big, physical LW could make the Senators harder to play against, and Murray had Penner in Anaheim so he knew what he was getting.

Physical ? I must have missed those games haha.

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#48 LOIL
July 06 2009, 11:39AM
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Ogden Brother wrote:

If you say Ott would have preffered just Cogs + Smid but had to take Penner too, you are saying that Penner reduces their value.

He is of little value and carries a large contract. You seem to want to make an equation out of this so here it is based on hypothetical skill values given to each player.

100(cogs) + 50(smid) + 1(penner) = 151 value points haha.

Im not saying penner reduces the value of cogs and smid but what he brings to the table skill wise is far outweighed by the size of his contract. "Pound for dollar" Penner might be one of the worst contracts in the league. And one that no team "wants".

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#49 LOIL
July 06 2009, 11:41AM
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That all said i really do hope the new coach finds a way to get the best out of penner. Because if he starts to use his size to his advantage and puts up even close to 30 goals then his contract wont look near as bad.

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#50 Ogden Brother
July 06 2009, 11:52AM
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LOIL wrote:

Ogden Brother wrote: If you say Ott would have preffered just Cogs + Smid but had to take Penner too, you are saying that Penner reduces their value. He is of little value and carries a large contract. You seem to want to make an equation out of this so here it is based on hypothetical skill values given to each player. 100(cogs) + 50(smid) + 1(penner) = 151 value points haha. Im not saying penner reduces the value of cogs and smid but what he brings to the table skill wise is far outweighed by the size of his contract. “Pound for dollar” Penner might be one of the worst contracts in the league. And one that no team “wants”.

I don't know why I'm going to bother, but.

You are saying he reduces their value, you are saying Ott would preffer just Smid+ Cogs which must mean

Smid+Cogs > Smid+Cogs+Penner

He's overpaid by what? .5 million? 1 million? Way overblown by fans (as usual)

Also, unless you were involved with the negotiations, you really have no idea if Penner was a want to have or a have to take.

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