Help on the Fourth Line
Jonathan Willis
August 20 2009 11:15AM
Looking at the Oilers from last season, the most obvious weakness was the team’s penalty-kill, which ranked 27th in the NHL at 77.5%. An increase even to the range of average (16th ranked Vancouver had an 81.4% success rate) would have saved the Oilers 13 goals against last year.
Believe it or not, all of this is a good thing – because fourth-line penalty-killing specialists are cheap and plentiful on the free agent market.
The Oilers have a little under 1.2-million in cap space, according to CapGeek.com. That figure assumes a starting lineup including Gilbert Brule, J-F Jacques, and Liam Reddox. Assuming that we believe Liam Reddox is a first-rate minor league player but not yet a regular NHL’er (which I do) let’s assume his spot is open, and his 515K cap hit is gone. We add that, and all of a sudden there’s 1.7-million to play with.
Let’s make a further assumption: that the team would like a little bit of salary cap breathing room for the trade deadline. If we leave 700K or so, that projects into (roughly) room for a 3-million dollar player at the trade deadline.
That gives the Edmonton Oilers one million dollars to play with. Assuming that they don’t have to ransom the world, they could spend that money on someone who could kill penalties. The following is a quick look at decent UFA penalty-killers who earned less than that figure last season (and excluding Dominic Moore, who will certainly cost more).
Matt Pettinger
- 2008-09 Cap Hit: 1,000,000
- 2008-09 Stats Line: 59GP – 8G – 7A – 15PTS, -14
- Key Number: 93 hits in 59 games played
Matt Pettinger was a go-to guy in the defensive zone for an awful team, along with linemates Jeff Halpern and Adam Hall. Unsurprisingly, all three ended up in the red +/- wise. Pettinger’s nothing special, really; after a pair of effective offensive seasons shortly after the lockout, he’s been a 4th-line player for Washington, Vancouver and Tampa Bay. He averaged 1:07 per game on the penalty-kill last season. He adds size (6’1”, 205lbs) and a physical edge.
How I Feel: He’s better than Reddox, and really that’s all that matters.
Dan Hinote
- 2008-09 Cap Hit: 1,000,000
- 2008-09 Stats Line: 51GP – 1G – 4A – 5PTS, -7
- Key number: Averaged 2:32 per game on the PK last season
Energetic forward Dan Hinote doesn’t add much in terms of size, adds nothing offensively (in eight seasons, his career high in points is 15) and didn’t even start out at the wrong end of the ice all that much last season.
How I Feel: The Sun headline the day after he scored his one goal in 2009-10 would be the “Hinote” of his season.
Dean McAmmond
- 2008-09 Cap Hit: 875,000
- 2008-09 Stats Line: 62GP – 5G – 11A – 16PTS, +7
- Key number: 9 points, +5 in 18 games after being traded to the Islanders
McAmmond saw a huge increase in his time on ice when he went to New York; jumping from 9:40 to more than 15 minutes a game – including more than 2 minutes a game on the PK. His underlying numbers all look decent, and he started in the wrong zone plenty. Still has blazing speed and questionable self-preservation. Plays either wing or centre, although he’s only a middling faceoff man.
How I Feel: I’ve always liked the guy, and he can help the team.
Marcel Goc
- 2008-09 Cap Hit: 775,000
- 2008-09 Stats Line: 55GP – 2G – 9A – 11PTS, -6
- Key number: 58.2% on faceoffs
Goc, who played a fourth-line role last season with the Sharks, would bring both size (6’1”, 200lbs) and speed to the Oilers lineup. He got killed a little bit by the percentages last year, but even with that the odds are that he isn’t going to put up a bunch of points. He turns 26 this week, and has been an NHL regular for four seasons. Goc isn’t averse to a physical game (83 hits in just 55 games last year) and kills penalties (averaged 1:28 on the PK last season). He was also one of the few Sharks to get more starts in the defensive zone than the offensive zone (with that good of a team, there’s not a lot of defensive zone starts to go around).
How I Feel: Goc would be a perfect fit for the Oilers.
Eric Perrin
- 2008-09 Cap Hit: 750,000
- 2008-09 Stats Line: 78GP – 7G – 16A – 23PTS, -2
- Key Number: 5’9”, 176lbs
The soon to be 34-year old has spent his entire career in the Southeast division. In 2007-08, he scored a career-high 45 points (after scoring 36 in 2006-07) but saw that total nearly cut in half this year. He was Marty Reasoner’s regular partner on the penalty-kill (averaged 3:17 per game). He generally plays wing but can also handle centre, and he went 52.1% on draws last season (213 total faceoffs taken).
How I Feel: Perrin’s a decent player but lacks size or a physical edge; he might be a better fit elsewhere.
Jiri Novotny
- 2008-09 Cap Hit: 750,000
- 2008-09 Stats Line: 42GP – 4G – 3A – 7PTS, +4
- Key Number: 6’4”, 209lbs
Novotny’s scoring touch never came along the way Buffalo thought it would when they invested a first round pick in him at the 2001 draft. Aside from offense, he’s a fine player for the most part (although his work ethic has been criticized before) and he brings a physical game (74 hits in just 42 games), the ability to win draws (52.9%) and of course some size. He spent some time on Ken Hitchcock’s PK unit as well (avg. 1:06 per game).
How I Feel: Might not be a bad fit.
Andy Hilbert
- 2008-09 Cap Hit: 675,000
- 2008-09 Stats Line: 67GP – 11G – 16A – 27PTS, -3
- Key Number: 85 blocked shots in 67 games
I’ve talked about Hilbert before (mostly here) and despite his size I think he’d be a great addition to the club. He played 2:41 per game short-handed last season, and that blocked shots number is huge for a forward. He’s also one of the most offensively proficient fourth-liners out there, and he’s been solid for the Islanders since the lockout. Of interest: the last three seasons, the Islanders have been -122; Hilbert’s been +9.
How I Feel: This is a quality player, and one of the best bargains remaining on the market.
Blair Betts
- 2008-09 Cap Hit: 615,000
- 2008-09 Stats Line: 81GP – 6G – 4A – 10PTS, -5
- Key Number: Averaged 2:59 TOI per game shorthanded
The 6’3” , 210 lb Betts has been mentioned repeatedly in connection with the Oilers, mostly by Jim Matheson. Apparently, the Oilers interest in the penalty-killer is lukewarm at most, and I can understand that. He does bring size and some physical play (93 hits last season) but is only a vanilla option on faceoffs (49.3% last year) and is only a middling skater by NHL standards. He has very limited offensive ability and isn’t as good a shutdown player 5-on-5 as some other options on the market.
How I Feel: Betts could be a good pickup, although he’s not the best available option.
Boyd Devereaux
- 2008-09 Cap Hit: 575,000
- 2008-09 Stats Line: 23GP – 6G – 5A – 11PTS, +3
- Key Number: Averaged 2:07 TOI per game shorthanded
Boyd Devereaux is not the offensive player his numbers make him seem; in 45 AHL games before being recalled he had only 16 points, and he’s never topped the 27 points he recorded as an Oiler in 1999-00. He’s still a phenomenal skater and has reinvented himself as a utility forward since being picked 6th overall by the Oilers in 1996. Injuries have largely ruined his career. He got some luck bounces-wise last year, and at this point isn’t much more than a tweener.
How I Feel: As much as I have a soft spot for the guy, I’d rather have Liam Reddox on my team.
Tomas Plihal
- 2008-09 Cap Hit: 500,000
- 2008-09 Stats Line: 64GP – 5G – 8A – 13PTS, -4
- Key Number: 52.7% on faceoffs
Plihal brings decent size (6’1”, 210lbs) to the lineup and like the rest of the players on this list saw some time killing penalties last season (averaged 1:05 per game shorthanded). That said, he’s got no offensive upside and he’s suffered a number of injuries since turning pro. His underlying numbers are decent but not extraordinary.
How I Feel: Plihal’s an above-average fourth-liner, but not at the top of this group.
Ryan Bayda
- 2008-09 Cap Hit: 475,000
- 2008-09 Stats Line: 70GP – 5G – 7A -12PTS, +2
- Key Number: Averaged 1:48 per game shorthanded
Bayda’s not a big player, but that doesn’t prevent him from being an effective forechecker. He started with a territorial advantage, but didn’t do much with it last year and despite decent numbers in the AHL he doesn’t really bring offense to the NHL level. He does the little things (hits, blocks shots) but remains a fringe NHL’er.
How I Feel: Probably not worth signing.
The Final Tally
Here’s the order I’d pursue this group in if I were Steve Tambellini:
Priorities: Marcel Goc, Andy Hilbert Possibilities: Jiri Novotny, Dean McAmmond, Blair Betts, Matt Pettinger, Tomas Plihal Pass: Eric Perrin, Ryan Bayda, Boyd Devereaux, Dan Hinote
Goc and Hilbert rise to the top of this list because both represent players not just capable of filling in on the fourth line, but also of playing a more significant role if the need arises.
Hemsky's vital and signed long term Horcoff's vital and signed long term Penner's difficult to move Gagner's not going anywhere Cogliano probably isn't going anywhere O'Sullivan's probably not going anywhere Nilsson's difficult to move.
The fact of the matter is that the top-six needs fixing, but as it stands I think the Oilers are committed to the current group unless they can send out Penner (or possibly O'Sullivan and some salary cap dead weight).
That's why the Heatley trade was so desirable.
It isn't easy to fix the top-six, and depending what they think of the young guys maybe it's desirable to take the long view and just handle some bumps this season.
But it's easy and cheap to fix the PK; hence the article.
That's exactly what I was thinking, JW. If we're going to become sellers at the trade deadline anyway, why not use the cap space we've got to fix the things that are quick and easy.
It seems like a lot of the argument against this article is that effective 4th liners are a dime-a-dozen. If that's the case, why is our 4th line a revolving door to the AHL?
I don't want to alarm anyone, but, NHL 09 predicted that Dan Hinote would become an Oiler. In the past it predicted Kotalik and Garon becoming Oilers and Broadziak being traded. It also predicted that I would score 100 goals in my rookie year. But I wouldn't hold my breath on that one. So, if we somehow wind up with the one goal wonder, I won't say I told you so. I will just burn my copy of NHL 09 and hide in my room because clearly it's made of pure evil.
@ jeanshorts: ~Were these predictions roster updates? lol.~
jeanshorts wrote:
In NHL '02, I scored 104 goals as a rookie d-man. I also destroyed Laraque in a fight even though he's twice my size. Screw Schremp, where's my callup Lowe?
@ OvenChicken8:
Surprisingly no. These all happened during a dynasty/be a pro. So the roster updates don't affect those rosters. And the Garon trade actually happened in NHL 06 or something for PS2. Either way, it's evil. Pure, pure evil.
@ jeanshorts:
Well, they DID put Kane on the cover this year....so yes, PURE EVIL.
@ Jonathan Willis:
Are you comparing Madden to Moreau or Pisani??
Jonathan Willis wrote:
Agree 100% that trade was the BEST possible scenario for us.
It would have got us the TRUE #1 that we need while eliminating some salary that we didn't need.
Heatley presser tomorrow (TSN).
How bad is it here when Danny would rather swallow his pride and go back to Ottawa. F you Kevin Lowe for turning the Oilers into a C level competitor.
@ rindog:
I think Moreau and Pisani are arguably in the same class as Madden and Pahlsson and Malhotra and the rest of them. They are quite decent third-liners; or at least they were before suffering a bunch of injuries and/or losing a truckload of weight to colitis.
Now it's probably fair to question if they can do the same things they did in their prime.
@ Quicksilver ballet:
I'm not going to waste time worrying about what Heatley thinks of this team.
Jonathan Willis wrote:
Not that I won't discuss it of course, but if he doesn't want to come here, he doesn't want to come here. It's not going to affect how I view the team or city at all.
@ Jonathan Willis: Has playing for the Oilers dropped from a B level job to a C level job in the NHL?
Quicksilver ballet wrote:
....The team has been a C level competitor (or worse) since the early 90's....
LOL I came across this website and had to stop laughing before I could even type a response. Heatley wishes he could come here to Anaheim, just like every other good player in the league. Too bad for oilstain fans up their in canaduh they don't have a smart American like Brian Burke running their team instead of stupid canadians who don't know anything about hockey. Even toronto is finally smart enough to get an American coach and GM to run their team now. Gotta feel for Gilbert and O'Sullivan, living under socialism up there must suck. LOng sory short - GO USA and of course GO DUCKS GO!!!!!!
Ogden Brother wrote:
Sounds good to me, I hope you're in the know. How about Tom Gilbert for Kessel?
@ Randall Graves: If this isn't a joke you're a moron, if it is well played.
@ Jonathan Willis:
I guess we disagree then...
Madden is a Selke trophy winner and a runner up 4 other times (including last year).
He just signed as a UFA for $2.75 (basically the highest he could have got).
We locked up Pisani (with a home town discount) for $2.5??
Am I missing something?
As far as Pahlsson goes - he too just signed an UFA offer for $2.65 (to the highest bidder). He may not have the awards that Madden does; but I think most GMs would take him over Pisani? I could be wrong - but Pisani won't be getting $2.5 million on his next deal..
Jonathan Willis wrote:
Problem is Moreau does have the injury past and Pisani does have colitis. Sure they can be great at times, but until one of them puts in close to a full season we can't rely on them like you could on the others.
Jonathan Willis wrote:
That's obvious, and shows a sizeable blind spot.
@ rindog: Problem with Pisani's contract like many others is Lowe was paying based on what he think the guy could do, not on past production. And by past production one playoff season doesn't count.
@ Randall Graves:
Just in case you feel like slinging some more mud in the future, I'll point out it's spelled m-u-d. You're welcome.
jeff wrote:
That is basically my point. I suggested getting rid of these guys (if we can) and then replacing them cheaper. If the best in the league (at that role) are signing for what Pisani makes - we should be able to get something comparable to Pisani for a lot cheaper??
I know it easier said thatn done and we will probably be stuck with Staios, Moreau and Pisani.
I just brought them up as the reason we are not able to experiment with other role player sin the league and have to hope to fill from within.
@ Robin Brownlee:
I'm all for bringing some size and nasty in; I just think it needs to be more than a bit player.
MacIntyre can't keep up at the NHL level.
Jacques is an interesting guy and honestly right now I'd keep him over Brule - unless Brule needs to clear waivers (and I think he does).
But neither of them plays enough to have a huge impact; I'd really like to see a legit top-six guy with size and a physical presence. But I can't think of anyone who would be available.
@ rindog:
Pisani's overpaid, no doubt, and due for a correction, but I'd bet he makes a minimum of 1.5 MM on his nexct contract.
As for Moreau, I'd bet money that he'd get 2MM on the open market now - though when Lowe signed him it was an overpay.
@ rindog Well the one bright spot is if Pisani is here in 10/11 he will be cheaper then now. I agree that we are stuck with these guys but at the same time if we don't replace them properlywe kinda screw the team up.
Staios and Moreau may not be what they once were, but they do block shots and they do stand up for teammates. If we do replace them they have to be with gritty players.
Jonathan Willis wrote:
Having Cogs/O'sully is really redundant, one+ should be on the block for a bigger version of them.
Kev wrote:
Sadly I'm not in the know, I'd like a Kessel for Gilbert... but I'd rather a Gilbert for Horton.
rindog wrote:
Home town discount? That's called holding your GM's feet to the fair after a monster PO and and watching half your teamates leave to greener patures.
@ Ender the Dragon:
So is Bobby Ryan still a 'questionable draft pick' lol? Lauren Pronger says hi haha, see you later losers!
P.S.- 2007 Anaheim Ducks, Stanley Cup champions! D-U-C-K-S spells DUCKS!!!
Jonathan Willis wrote:
You sure Moreau is fair value now vs an overpay when signed?
If anything Moreau type players are making less now then they were when he signed.
Randall Graves wrote:
stanley cups by team:
oilers-5 ducks-1
zzzzzzzzomg!!!!!!!!!!
Crappy Emilio Estevez movies by team:
Oilers: 0 Ducks: 1
@ Ender the Dragon: @ Colin:
The guy has to be joking he doesn't even know Pronger isn't a Duck anymore and how good would Bobby Ryan be if he didn't get to play with Perry and Getzlaf? I'm sure Dustin Penner could answer that question.
@ Ogden Brother:
That would work for me also. One or the other.
Randall Graves wrote:
after thinking about it, Goc wouldnt be TOO bad of a pick up. maybe. his faceoff % looks good but he only took about 46 short handed faceoffs (22 wins, 24 loss - 47.8%). JUST below the 50% mark. can he improve on that? tough telling.
the beasts at SH/FO% are Steckel, Malhotra, Draper, Vermette, Brind'Amour... theres others too who have a decent percentage SH, like Bergeron, Stajan, etc...
http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20092ALLSASAll&sort=shortHandedFaceOffsWon&viewName=faceOffPercentageAll
it all depends too how much people put on these numbers and PK success. theres probably anomalies.
Jonathan Willis wrote:
Do you have some examples to back this up? From my view, I see Pisani-types making between 750-1mil. As for Ethan, he might warrant 1-1.25 if he stays healthy.
ScubaSteve wrote:
From this summer:
Chris Neil signed a 4-year, 2MM/yr contract. Chad Larose signed a 2-year, 1.7MM/yr contract. Radek Dvorak signed a 2-year, 1.7MM/yr contract.
I haven't seen a Pisani-type under 1MM/yr. Who did you have in mind?
I haven't seen a Moreau-type for under 1.5MM/yr. Who did you have in mind?
Preach it, brother Jonathan. It's honestly ridiculous that Tambellini isn't looking for help on the PK. It's a cheap fix, and as you say, an improved PK to even the half-way mark could have saved a fair amount of goals against. The new NHL is all about special teams. If your powerplay is below average (which ours was last year) and your PK is abysmal (again which ours was), you're going to lose a lot of games.
Quinn will fix the powerplay as he did in Toronto. However, if we want to have a healthy buffer of wins to get into the playoffs, why the heck not spend that extra million and cut someone lose to improve the important PK. Why is this so difficult?
I get that Tambellini is in a world of hurt with the cap issues. However, if a $1M player is coming in, I think we have a healthy selection of $1m-ish players to ship back out. Via waivers, via trade.. whatever. It doesn't matter. The effect it will have on this team is worth it.
I see ways this team can improve from within in many aspects, but the PK is not really one of them.
@ Randall Graves: Ducks suck a$$ you fag. Go back to playing on the merry go round in Disney land you loser. Sorry for the language guys I'm just sick of fat headed people coming on here burnin up the oil especially american ones that don't know the first thing about hockey
Jimmy wrote:
hahaha. Although technically they are up 3 zip.
The Mighty Ducks is no Boys On The Bus, this is for sure.
Bucky left the Oilers on waivers(exposed), he was the heart and sole of the Oilers...Now why can't(won't) they do that to Moreau and Pisani if they can't trade them? Thats another 5 mil. Look they way MacT left town. There is a new Oilers this year and hopefully they are done living in the past, post 1990. But that Khabby contract is going to be a b*tch to move, maybe an expensive buy-out. For Dubnyk to sign for 1 year means the end of Desjarlais. What about all that Harding talk? Seriously the Oilers have to pick a direction on which way they want to go.
Too late on Goc. Nashville just signed him for 550K.
Sandra wrote:
A buyout on Khabibulin will have no effect on our cap. And it's "Deslauriers". But I do agree about Moreau (and Pisani, so long as he is replaced). There are a few guys here that are waiver-worthy.
Sandra wrote:
I will never for the life of me understand why, as soon as a player is traded or signs here, people immediately talk about trading them, waiving them, or buying them out. Why the hell would Tambo sign him if he had the intent on trading him? (Why he would sign him in the first place is a whole other issue). Let's use a little logic here and wait until at least the pre-season before we start lynching players shall we?
But I do agree on Moreau. But not Pisani. He may be a little over paid but he's the kind of heart and soul guy every team needs. Now Statios, that's another story. It's time to send him out to sea once and for all.
So Dany Heatley will now be reporting to the Senators if no trade is made before the season starts (as per TSN)I wonder how Katz,Lowe,Tambalini and the rest of the Oilers organization feel now that a player would rather go back to his team that he demanded to be traded from,rather than playing here.This organization must have a bad reputation around the league,if I was Katz I would figure this out sooner rather than later.
Jonathan Willis wrote:
Kirk Maltby - 850,000 Patrick Eaves - 500,000 Adam Burish 725,000 Cristoph Schubet - 800,000 Ryan Shannon - 600,00
Jonathan Willis wrote:
Andrew Ladd - 1.5 Troy Brouwer - 1.0 David Steckel 725,000 Ian Lapierrier - 1.167
Although Moreau may command a little more for his leadership qualities, but I think these players are pretty close skill-set wise.