August 30 2009 11:49AM
I recently received an Excel file from Gabriel Desjardins (of Behind the Net). He’d run my quality of competition method for the entire AHL, and was sending me the results. He also included the 5-on-5 and 5-on-4 scoring breakdowns for all of the players; what follows is the even-strength and powerplay scoring for the Springfield Falcons forwards.
Also included are new Falcons Chris Minard and Kip Brennan.
- Jordan Eberle: 1G – 4A – 5PTS (.556 pts/gm)
- Ryan Potulny: 18G – 16A – 34PTS (.486 pts/gm)
- Ryan Stone: 10G – 25A – 35PTS (.455 pts/gm)
- Chris Minard: 11G – 11A – 22PTS (.407 pts/gm)
- Liam Reddox: 2G – 3A – 5PTS (.357 pts/gm)
- Slava Trukhno: 4G – 12A – 16PTS (.286 pts/gm)
- Bryan Lerg: 6G – 5A – 11PTS (.262 pts/gm)
- Rob Schremp: 2G – 16A – 18PTS (.261 pts/gm)
- Charles Linglet: 5G – 10A – 15PTS (.259 pts/gm)
- Gilbert Brule: 4G – 6A – 10PTS (.256 pts/gm)
- Carl Corazzini: 10G – 10A – 20PTS (.250 pts/gm)
- Colin McDonald: 7G – 10A – 17PTS (.221 pts/gm)
- Derek Bekar: 4G – 4A – 8PTS (.200 pts/gm)
- Shane Willis: 1G – 5A – 6PTS (.188 pts/gm)
- Guillaume Lefebvre: 4G – 9A – 13PTS (.186 pts/gm)
- Tyler Spurgeon: 4G – 9A – 13PTS (.178 pts/gm)
- Geoff Paukovich: 4G – 3A – 7PTS (.152 pts/gm)
- Tim Sestito: 4G – 2A – 6PTS (.118 pts/gm)
- Ryan O’Marra: 1G – 6A – 7PTS (.113 pts/gm)
- Kip Brennan: 1G – 1A – 2PTS (.091 pts/gm)
What I See:
First off, the caveats with Jordan Eberle. He was playing decidedly weak opposition, and he played in only nine games. That said, his AHL debut was very, very impressive and while he’s still a dark horse he could force his way on to the Oilers. For a number of reasons, I hope he doesn’t (age, injury risk, CBA implications, too many small, offensive forwards as it is) but he might.
Potulny, Stone and Minard are all going to make serious pushes for a roster spot. It’s important to remember that Minard played 20 games for the Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins a year ago – and I don’t think anyone will argue that their forward corps was a weak one. All three guys should be in contention for NHL games.
As much as defensive issues hold Rob Schremp back, he just doesn’t score at even-strength. He isn’t close to guys like Potulny, or even guys like Reddox; instead he’s lumped in with disappointing forwards like Bryan Lerg and Slava Trukhno. He needs to bring offense in all situations, not just with the man advantage.
Gilbert Brule fairs badly by this measure, and that leads me to think that if he cracks the roster next year he’ll put up similar results to what he did in Columbus.
In all likelihood, Guillaume Lefebvre remains a better hockey player - if not a better fighter - than Kip Brennan.
I’ll acknowledge that Ryan O’Marra probably didn’t get much ice-time, but bringing less offense than Tim Sestito is never a good thing.
- Chris Minard: 19G – 8A – 27PTS (.500 pts/gm)
- Jordan Eberle: 2G – 2A – 4PTS (.444 pts/gm)
- Ryan Potulny: 13G – 11A – 24PTS (.343 pts/gm)
- Rob Schremp: 3G – 16A – 19PTS (.275 pts/gm)
- Gilbert Brule: 6G – 3A – 9PTS (.231 pts/gm)
- Shane Willis: 4G – 3A – 7PTS (.219 pts/gm)
- Liam Reddox: 2G – 1A – 3PTS (.214 pts/gm)
- Ryan Stone: 6G – 6A – 12PTS (.156 pts/gm)
- Slava Trukhno: 3G – 4A – 7PTS (.125 pts/gm)
- Carl Corazzini: 1G – 9A – 10PTS (.125 pts/gm)
- Bryan Lerg: 6G – 5A – 11PTS (.119 pts/gm)
- Derek Bekar: 3G – 1A – 4PTS (.100 pts/gm)
On this list, players with less than .100 pts/gm were assumed to have received minimal time and thus excluded.
What I See:
Chris Minard, a very effective even-strength scorer, is also a beast on the powerplay. The goal total in particular is eye-catching; Minard scored more powerplay goals per game (.351) than most players had points. Minard’s numbers stand out so much, at least in part, because he was on a much better powerplay unit in Wilkes-Barre than existed in Springfield.
The sample-size caveat continues to apply to Jordan Eberle, but whatever this kid’s weaknesses I do believe he will bring scoring to the professional game.
Rob Schremp’s bad year extended to the powerplay; at a guess, the biggest reason for the drop in his overall numbers was because the powerplay was so poor. Of regulars, only Ryan Potulny outperformed Schremp on this rather tepid unit.
Ryan Stone’s AHL numbers probably don’t reflect his overall value: like most AHL’ers, he isn’t a powerplay guy at the NHL level so these numbers are almost irrelevant.