GUESSING GAME: PICKING THE OILERS TOP 13

Robin Brownlee
October 06 2010 11:21PM

 

With all the advanced statistics websites out there the disciples of digits who lean heavily on them to predict future performance should clean up on rubes like me when it comes to a simple hockey pool, no?

It stands to reason that if a person can run the numbers, extrapolating this and projecting that based on a bunch of formulas I don't understand, or really care to, surely they've got a leg up on an old hockey writer who simply eyeballs the players, glances at what nerds call the boxcars and throws out his predictions.

At the very least, the advanced stats people are making a more educated guess than the saw-him-good guys (more nerdspeak) like me, no? All this QualComp and Corsi and Desjardins jazz has to be a big advantage up against somebody who thinks taking into account even-strength ice time and power-play minutes is getting in really deep, no?

I don't think so. Not for a minute. No sale. That's why I think the writers at Oilersnation should have some fun by making predictions as to who'll be the top 13 scorers -- the top nine forwards and top four defencemen -- for the Edmonton Oilers this season.

Likewise, we're inviting our readers to do the same -- DO NOT SEND YOUR PICKS TONIGHT OR YOU'LL BE INELIGIBLE FOR THE LUCKY 13 POOL* -- tomorrow morning AFTER we post our picks. There is nothing on the line here except bragging rights, but that's usually enough.

For added skin, aside from individual honours being up for grabs, we're going to have a team segment that pits non-advanced stats guys Jason Gregor and myself (THE WINNERS) against advanced stats guys Lowetide and Jonathan Willis (THE NERDS) against the Wanye titled and baggedmilk assisted (TEAM JORDAN EBERLE) and we'll see what's what.

THE RULES

 

We're going to make this simple -- DO NOT SEND YOUR PICKS TONIGHT OR YOU'LL BE INELIGIBLE FOR THE LUCKY 13 POOL* -- with a format that even Wanye can understand.

Here's how it'll will work:

  • Our writers are going to pick their nine forwards and four defencemen, listing them in order of scoring finish by G-A-Pts, grouped by position. Games played don't matter. Neither does plus-minus, points-per-game or any of that other really fancy book-learning razzmatazz.
  • If, for argument's sake, the prediction is Shawn Horcoff will score 15-25-40 and he ends up with 50 points, you're a minus-10. If he scores 30 points, you're also minus-10. If you're bang-on, you get zero. We add that up for all 13 players listed. Finishing at zero is the goal.
  • If one of your forwards doesn't make the Oilers top nine or one of your defencemen doesn't make the top four -- DO NOT SEND YOUR PICKS TONIGHT OR YOU'LL BE INELIGIBLE FOR THE LUCKY 13 POOL* -- you're obviously a knucklehead and that's a minus-25. Thanks for coming.
  • If one of the players you list, say Andrew Cogliano, is traded, that's a minus-25 and you get the salami again.
  • THE BIG RULE: Wanye will post the picks of our writers at about 9 a.m. Thursday, or whenever he is roused from the filth in his trailer by a mattress fire or the knock of bill collectors at the door. It could be 9:15 a.m., it could be 8:55 a.m., so you'll have to check back early and often.

Once the item is posted, readers have 60 minutes to submit their lists in the comments section. -- DO NOT SEND YOUR PICKS TONIGHT OR YOU'LL BE INELIGIBLE FOR THE LUCKY 13 POOL*

GOT IT?

 

While we won't post updates like those fancy real pools, everybody with a functioning brain stem who managed to keep a copy of their own list will know where they stand relative to the actual scoring.

Of course, Gregor and I will remind everybody how it shook down at the end of the season after we (THE WINNERS) wax Lowetide and Willis (THE NERDS) in the team competition -- unless something goes wrong with the database and the results are somehow, ahem, lost.

Like I said, it's all for fun (unless Gregor can lean on Ross MacLeod for some radio swag) and bragging rights. With that on the line, we expect to hear from our regular readers and all the vast intellects out there who are constantly trying to prove how smart they are.

So, remember: top nine forwards and top four defencemen with G-A-Pts, listed. Get your lists in tomorrow morning within 60 minutes of the picks of our writers being posted -- DO NOT SEND YOUR PICKS TONIGHT OR YOU'LL BE INELIGIBLE FOR THE LUCKY 13 POOL*

*I'd bet the house some zero-comprehension "FIST" mouth-breather will post tonight.

WHILE I'M AT IT . . .

 

Still with predictions, while I see the Oilers as being a lot more fun to watch this season and wouldn't be surprised to see them improve by 20 points or so, that's not going to be nearly enough to get them into the playoffs in the Western Conference.

My best guess is this will be a team with 38-40 wins and something in the range of 82-85 points. If I'm putting a number to it, I'm picking them to finish 12th in the Western Conference.

RB UNAPPROVED PRODUCT PLACEMENT

If you are running a hockey draft this year with your crew, please consider using My.Nationdrafts.com to host your draft. Just like officepools*, only cheaper** yet better and only pennies a glass. Oh yeah! 

*maybe

**doubtful

-- Listen to Robin Brownlee Wednesdays and Thursdays from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. on the Jason Gregor Show on TEAM 1260.

Aceb4a1816f5fa09879a023b07d1a9b4
A sports writer since 1983, including stints at The Edmonton Journal and The Sun 1989-2007, I happily co-host the Jason Gregor Show on TSN 1260 twice a week and write when so inclined. Have the best damn lawn on the internet. Most important, I am Sam's dad. Follow me on Twitter at Robin_Brownlee. Or don't.
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#51 Oilers4ever
October 07 2010, 10:49AM
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Dude... that their website for the hockey pool looks pretty slick... too bad I have 41 plus teams for my draft already entered at OfficePools... :) But Officepools is only $20.. so the one you are talking about is more cash. Not good...

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#52 Wanye
October 07 2010, 11:17AM
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Oilers4ever wrote:

Dude... that their website for the hockey pool looks pretty slick... too bad I have 41 plus teams for my draft already entered at OfficePools... :) But Officepools is only $20.. so the one you are talking about is more cash. Not good...

They only charge $20?!

HOW DO THEY LIVE?

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#53 Wanye
October 07 2010, 11:18AM
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rubbertrout wrote:

WHY COULDN'T THIS HAVE BEEN POSTED EARLIER!

I'm about to hop on a plane to Vegas and I will have no chance to think about this.

*remembers that he performs at his best whne drunk and not thinking

**remembers that there are a lot of rules and that such detail confuses him

***drinks copious amounts of bourbon

VEGAS!?

LUCKY!

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#54 Quicksilver ballet
October 07 2010, 11:23AM
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Would it be possible if the Oilers and Sheldon Souray mutually terminated the balance of this contract? Instead of the predetermined 4.5 buyout option, if both parties agreed to terminate this deal for say 2.5 million. Sheldon could then return to the NHL much sooner than later.... rather than wasting away in the AHL.

Is there grounds here for a special circumstances category such as Shanahans or Sykoras?

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#55 Ben Dover
October 07 2010, 01:15PM
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David S wrote:

See? SEE??? ^

THIS is David Staples.

Sure...whatever you say. Another great comment, Mr. Staples. Keep up the good work.

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#56 Travis Dakin
October 07 2010, 01:19PM
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The ONE FRIGGIN DAY I don't read the Nation first thing in the morning and I get hosed!

Let this be a reminder to you people with day jobs. If you aren't staring at your computer screen pressing F5 (Stupid PC's in the office) 324 times a day, you will lose BIG TIME!!!

So utterly disappointed.

*EDIT* Just read the next article and comments and found that I have 40 minutes to submit a list!!!! So happy and freaked out at the same time!!!!

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#57 Oilers4ever
October 07 2010, 02:24PM
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Wanye wrote:

They only charge $20?!

HOW DO THEY LIVE?

Yep... only $20... so you can see why I wouldn't want to switch.. there's one out there apparently that is free as well... but it's not as good as the OfficePools site... if you want the trash talking, live updates during games etc, then you have to pay....

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#58 Wanyes bastard child
October 07 2010, 06:04PM
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David S wrote:

See? SEE??? ^

THIS is David Staples.

Can we get an IP check here please?

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