October 06 2010 11:21PM
With all the advanced statistics websites out there the disciples of digits who lean heavily on them to predict future performance should clean up on rubes like me when it comes to a simple hockey pool, no?
It stands to reason that if a person can run the numbers, extrapolating this and projecting that based on a bunch of formulas I don't understand, or really care to, surely they've got a leg up on an old hockey writer who simply eyeballs the players, glances at what nerds call the boxcars and throws out his predictions.
At the very least, the advanced stats people are making a more educated guess than the saw-him-good guys (more nerdspeak) like me, no? All this QualComp and Corsi and Desjardins jazz has to be a big advantage up against somebody who thinks taking into account even-strength ice time and power-play minutes is getting in really deep, no?
I don't think so. Not for a minute. No sale. That's why I think the writers at Oilersnation should have some fun by making predictions as to who'll be the top 13 scorers -- the top nine forwards and top four defencemen -- for the Edmonton Oilers this season.
Likewise, we're inviting our readers to do the same -- DO NOT SEND YOUR PICKS TONIGHT OR YOU'LL BE INELIGIBLE FOR THE LUCKY 13 POOL* -- tomorrow morning AFTER we post our picks. There is nothing on the line here except bragging rights, but that's usually enough.
For added skin, aside from individual honours being up for grabs, we're going to have a team segment that pits non-advanced stats guys Jason Gregor and myself (THE WINNERS) against advanced stats guys Lowetide and Jonathan Willis (THE NERDS) against the Wanye titled and baggedmilk assisted (TEAM JORDAN EBERLE) and we'll see what's what.
We're going to make this simple -- DO NOT SEND YOUR PICKS TONIGHT OR YOU'LL BE INELIGIBLE FOR THE LUCKY 13 POOL* -- with a format that even Wanye can understand.
Here's how it'll will work:
- Our writers are going to pick their nine forwards and four defencemen, listing them in order of scoring finish by G-A-Pts, grouped by position. Games played don't matter. Neither does plus-minus, points-per-game or any of that other really fancy book-learning razzmatazz.
- If, for argument's sake, the prediction is Shawn Horcoff will score 15-25-40 and he ends up with 50 points, you're a minus-10. If he scores 30 points, you're also minus-10. If you're bang-on, you get zero. We add that up for all 13 players listed. Finishing at zero is the goal.
- If one of your forwards doesn't make the Oilers top nine or one of your defencemen doesn't make the top four -- DO NOT SEND YOUR PICKS TONIGHT OR YOU'LL BE INELIGIBLE FOR THE LUCKY 13 POOL* -- you're obviously a knucklehead and that's a minus-25. Thanks for coming.
- If one of the players you list, say Andrew Cogliano, is traded, that's a minus-25 and you get the salami again.
- THE BIG RULE: Wanye will post the picks of our writers at about 9 a.m. Thursday, or whenever he is roused from the filth in his trailer by a mattress fire or the knock of bill collectors at the door. It could be 9:15 a.m., it could be 8:55 a.m., so you'll have to check back early and often.
Once the item is posted, readers have 60 minutes to submit their lists in the comments section. -- DO NOT SEND YOUR PICKS TONIGHT OR YOU'LL BE INELIGIBLE FOR THE LUCKY 13 POOL*
While we won't post updates like those fancy real pools, everybody with a functioning brain stem who managed to keep a copy of their own list will know where they stand relative to the actual scoring.
Of course, Gregor and I will remind everybody how it shook down at the end of the season after we (THE WINNERS) wax Lowetide and Willis (THE NERDS) in the team competition -- unless something goes wrong with the database and the results are somehow, ahem, lost.
Like I said, it's all for fun (unless Gregor can lean on Ross MacLeod for some radio swag) and bragging rights. With that on the line, we expect to hear from our regular readers and all the vast intellects out there who are constantly trying to prove how smart they are.
So, remember: top nine forwards and top four defencemen with G-A-Pts, listed. Get your lists in tomorrow morning within 60 minutes of the picks of our writers being posted -- DO NOT SEND YOUR PICKS TONIGHT OR YOU'LL BE INELIGIBLE FOR THE LUCKY 13 POOL*
*I'd bet the house some zero-comprehension "FIST" mouth-breather will post tonight.
WHILE I'M AT IT . . .
Still with predictions, while I see the Oilers as being a lot more fun to watch this season and wouldn't be surprised to see them improve by 20 points or so, that's not going to be nearly enough to get them into the playoffs in the Western Conference.
My best guess is this will be a team with 38-40 wins and something in the range of 82-85 points. If I'm putting a number to it, I'm picking them to finish 12th in the Western Conference.
RB UNAPPROVED PRODUCT PLACEMENT
If you are running a hockey draft this year with your crew, please consider using My.Nationdrafts.com to host your draft. Just like officepools*, only cheaper** yet better and only pennies a glass. Oh yeah!
-- Listen to Robin Brownlee Wednesdays and Thursdays from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. on the Jason Gregor Show on TEAM 1260.