Tom Gilbert Inside Out

Lowetide
November 27 2010 03:13AM

Playing defense in the NHL during the post-lockout era is one of the toughest jobs in sports. Gone are the days of clutch and grab, subtle stickwork is now rewarded with a whistle and 2 minutes in the box and the old standby (holding the stick) is now called "holding the stick" and comes with 2 more minutes in the sinbin. An entire player type (the plodding defender with size and a terrific wingspan) was nailed to the Cory Cross when management discovered faster wheels were required in the "new NHL." What happens when a "wheels" defenseman falls on hard times? 
 

The first thing we need to do is identify what "hard times" look like. When we say "my eyes tell me" history often shows that our eyes are wrong. So, let's have a look at Tom Gilbert over the last several seasons and see what his plus minus numbers were doing:

  • 07-08: Gilbert -6 on a -14 team
  • 08-09: Gilbert +6 on a +7 team
  • 09-10: Gilbert -10 on a -56 team
  • 10-11: Gilbert -7 on a -17 team (so far)

If we can agree that a fair measure of an "NHL pairing" is one third of a team's overall plus minus for a season (three pairings, divide the overall number by three) we get this:

  • 07-08: -6 when -5 would be average
  • 08-09: +6 when +2 would be average
  • 09-10: -10 when -19 would be average
  • 10-11: -7 when -6 would be average (so far)

So, a brief summary of his career might go like this: impressive as a rookie (just past average, that's terrific for a rookie); well above average in seasons two and three and then (so far) about average in year four. Fair?

I know relCorsi is a dirty word around these parts, so won't get too far into it. I will say that Gilbert is in the black relCorsi this season and has been every season of his NHL career:

  • 07-08: +1.5
  • 08-09: +2.6
  • 09-10: +8.1
  • 10-11: +2.0

I absolutely know Tom Gilbert has been the goat on many plays this season, and that he spent much of last year looking exposed. History teaches us that NHL defensemen lose previous performance levels for (mainly) two reasons: injury and changes in how they are used. I have no evidence of injury in the case of Gilbert (although he blocks a lot of shots so we know he's banged up a little bit at least by this time in the season), so we fall back on how he's being used. Let's list Gilbert's playing time (and when he's used) by season:

  • 07-08: 17:24EV; 2:15PP; 2:51PK
  • 08-09: 16:31EV; 2:54PP; 2:32PK
  • 09-10: 16:46EV; 2:59PP; 2:39PK
  • 10-11: 17:54EV; 2:52PP; 2:47PK

Man, that is consistent. Seriously. Tom Gilbert plays every game and plays a lot every game. I bet there aren't many NHL defensemen who have delivered that kind of consistency over the last 4 seasons. With that kind of consistent playing time, has he been consistent offensively?

  • 07-08: 0.98 5x5/60; 3.01 5x4/60
  • 08-09: 1.30 5x5/60; 3.91 5x4/60
  • 09-10: 0.92 5x5/60; 2.24 5x4/60
  • 10-11: 1.22 5x5/60; 0.00 5x4/60

Pretty consistent at even strength and his PP numbers were good until this season. We should probably assume Gilbert will return to the median in this era and that the putts will drop as the season rolls along (all 10-11 stats will be more reliable as the GP rises). So consistent according to our friend math. Hmmm.

May I suggest something? I think maybe some of us (certainly me) are viewing the game through those pre-lockout eyes and all those mistakes are adding up quickly in our collective brains. Tom Gilbert has been exposed this season (and much of last) but that's part of the new NHL. If the opposition is going to fly 40 sorties into your airspace every night (and you can't use the weapons that were previously available) then a lot more bombs are going to drop. And if the goalie is less than league average then some or a lot is going to get on you. It has been this way since Henry Shrapnel was a kid.

I believe that's partly what we're seeing here, along with Gilbert being in a bad stretch in terms of decision making. He's an NHL veteran now, those tentative decisions will soon be replaced by those butter outlet passes. Gilbert should recover, his resume suggests he's quality and there are no injuries we know about with this player.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
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#51 DSF
November 27 2010, 11:34AM
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@SumOil

Is he really?

Any team?

Are you sure?

Detroit?

Lidstrom, Rafalski, Stuart, Kronwall, Eriksson, Salei.

Looks like #7 or #8 to me.

Vancouver?

Ehrhoff, Edler, Hamhuis, Ballard, Bieksa, Salo, Looks like # 6 or #7 to me or possibly Manitoba because of his contract.

Any team?

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#52 bdiddy18
November 27 2010, 11:37AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

In short: Gilbert's a respectable top-four guy on most teams in the league. He's got some flaws, he's making too much money, and right now he's in a place on the depth chart he probably shouldn't be inhabiting.

But with all that said, the 'Gilbert is garbage' people really don't have a clue.

Wow this "short" is 10 X (lowetide's long blog) = better

had to include the math in there for the sake of this topic and author. LOL

Problem the Oilers have is that there is NO ONE that can remove Gilbert from his depth position. No Challenge therefore No repercussions for atrocious play and decision making.

Sadly Gilbert's bad play is still better than Strudwick/Vandemeere combo. And a call up of Belle or Plante is not intended for top 4 minutes.

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#53 C-DOG
November 27 2010, 11:40AM
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SumOil wrote:

How are most of these defensemen better than Gilbert. They are all 3rd pairing D-men. Gilbert has almost always been a second pairing D-man is playing for a pretty bad team right now and hence his numbers are suffering

I was refering to their defensive game, not offensive so if you balance them out, he's equal to a 3rd pairing guy on a good team for the most part, I also factored in a playoff atmosphere in which most would assume he would get exposed even more, factor in the cap hit, that is not a favorable senario for the Oilers going forward.

Most of those players are 2nd pairing d-men and are better than Gilbert, I was comparing him to the players I thought were 3rd pairing d-men.

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#54 SumOil
November 27 2010, 11:52AM
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@DSF

Detroit: maybe not Vancouver : He is comparable to most D-men. I see him as an equivalent to Edler. One should realise that good players do look bad on bad teams.

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#55 C-DOG
November 27 2010, 11:58AM
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SumOil wrote:

Detroit: maybe not Vancouver : He is comparable to most D-men. I see him as an equivalent to Edler. One should realise that good players do look bad on bad teams.

Like who? And did you watch how physical Edler was last year against the Kings/Hawks in the playoffs.

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#56 Quicksilver ballet
November 27 2010, 12:01PM
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Dodd wrote:

Careful with generalizing... just because Gilbert is (IMHO) too soft to take on what is asked of him, doesn't mean Peckham and Smid are, and it doesn't mean Steve Smith can't teach. If Peckham is throwing the hits and Gilbert is not, how is that the fault of Smith?

There are really only two that are part of this team going forward. Peckham and Whitney would have to be 1 and 1A. The rest of these guys are one and done, meaning if they do find another team interested in their services they probably won't be extended beyond their contract commitment. Hope there's help coming up from the A next year cause we're definately going to need it sooner rather than later.

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#57 Matt Henderson
November 27 2010, 12:08PM
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@Ashley

I'm not LT, but I cant help but completely disagree with you on Khabibulin's play this year.

He has not been sound at all this year. He has been letting in a lot of goals from angles that he should not be. He has been square to the shooter and letting pucks go right by him. His 5 hole has been open all year and he's been terrible at handling his rebounds.

All this could be a result of being off for nearly a year and having personal issues that are over-shadowing his commitment to goaltending in the NHL. Still, he has not played average. He has been incredibly below average. The Oilers may be the worst in Shots Against per game, but the other teams near the bottom: Atlanta, Anaheim, and Phoenix dont have goaltending like ours with the exception of Mason in Atlanta (who subsequently lost his job to Pavelec).

NK may have a world class past to fall back on, but he hasnt done that yet. Until he does he doesnt deserve to be the Oilers' starting goalie.

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#58 DSF
November 27 2010, 12:20PM
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SumOil wrote:

Detroit: maybe not Vancouver : He is comparable to most D-men. I see him as an equivalent to Edler. One should realise that good players do look bad on bad teams.

Edler is 24 years old (younger than Smid).....Gilbert will be 28 in a month, the same age as Hamhuis, Ballard and Ehrhoff.

If you want to compare him to any Canuck defenseman I would suggest Ehrhoff not Edler who projects higher than Gilbert.

Last season, Ehrhoff went 14G 30A 44P +36 while Gilbert went 5G 26A 31P -7.

Interestingly enough, Tom Gilbert is paid $4M while Ehrhoff is paid $3.1M although he is due for a new contract at the end of the season.

I do realize that good players can look bad on bad teams but you need to realize that bad teams are bad because they have bad players.

Taken in isolation, which is what the "advanced microstats" do, they may seem like good players compared to the other drek on the team but, when you line them up against good players on good teams the theory and practise shatters.

For example, a fine gentleman on this very site told me last season that the Sedins "fear" playing the Oilers because Horcoff "outscores" them...that being the conventional wisdom.

However, a quick check of the game summaries showed exactly the opposite to be true. (Horcoff was -5 against them in 6 games.)

You really have to examine the results of statistical "analysis" around here with a critical eye.

There be dragons here, Laddie.

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#59 Robin Brownlee
November 27 2010, 12:28PM
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Ribs wrote:

Gilbert is having an off year...And he's still our best defenceman.

He is to blame but if he had some sheltering the warts wouldn't look so bad and we'd probably be talking about how much he has developed instead of how he has supposedly regressed.

To me, he looks more solid out there in his physical game. He's blocking shots that he never used to and he's gotten better in front of the net. He still needs to work on his corner work and limit his panic attacks with the puck. The good news is that he's now going to the corners. The time will come when he can get in there, fight for the puck, and make a solid pass. It just takes time.

Tom Gilbert is the Oilers best defenceman? By what measure?

Congratulations, you just threw reason out the window, complete with a rocket pack strapped to its ass for emphasis. In what universe has Gilbert been this team's best defenceman this season?

Who is sheltering Ryan Whitney, who happens to be a month younger than Gilbert?

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#60 OilFan
November 27 2010, 12:33PM
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@Matt Henderson

I agree Khabby hasn't been great but any tender in the NHL should not get beat three times in a row on the same move.

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#61 Matt Henderson
November 27 2010, 12:36PM
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Gilbert has been terrible this year. I dont even know if I can say that I've seen him compete for the puck in 80% of the games this year.

He might be shellshocked after having 3 different sets of coaches telling him what to do in his 4 NHL seasons, but that's just an excuse for a millionaire that I dont want to believe in.

He needs to pull himself together and soon. He might not be a garbage player, but he's playing like one.

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#62 Matt Henderson
November 27 2010, 12:41PM
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@OilFan

Reference to the Backhand in the shootout against Dubnyk? I agree. I'm not saying Dubnyk is the next Roy, I'm saying that at the moment the Oil have a better chance with him in net than NK.

Goaltenders should be treated like Rechargable Batteries. You should use them until they no longer work, then you use another one until its out. Wash, Rinse, Repeat until the battery doesnt charge anymore. Then you throw it out and get another. You dont keep using a dead battery around because it used to power your remote back in 2001. If it doesnt work, it doesnt get used. Same with goalies.

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#63 Ashley
November 27 2010, 12:43PM
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Hi Archaeologuy,

Thanks for your comments. There have been a few bad goals this year, but they are few and far between. Many of the 5 hole goals I can recall were deflections or excellent screens on shots from the point (or poor defensive clearing of the screening offensive player, depending on how you look at it).

As far as shots against/game, I am sure that the Oilers do lead the league in that category, but again, I argue that we are falling into a stats trap. Shots against only tell part of the story. The quality of those shots and the goaltender's view of the incoming shot are of critical importance. The shots against and SP stats ignore those qualitative measures. So I disagree with your impression and and rationale for Khabibulin's performance, but I am happy that we can agree to disagree. Completely.

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#64 jake
November 27 2010, 12:46PM
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There are a whole bunch of players on the team, either by lack of talent/experience/slumping etc. are making a whole bunch of players bad on a whole bunch of nights. It's like negative synergy: 1Bad + 1Bad = 3Bad. Gilbert is one of the players who both contributes to and suffers from both sides of the equation. I suspect if/when the team improves so will he.

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#65 DSF
November 27 2010, 12:53PM
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Horcsky wrote:

If Tom Gilbert is on a team where he's a 5th or 6th dman, that team is equipped with a D corps ready to go deep into the playoffs.

Lets be careful about the "Gilbert is overpayed" argument. I don't see the relevence of his contract to his play, just like it doesn't apply to Horcoff, Penner, Foster, etc. The team has cap space, we aren't handcuffed by large contracts.

There so much nonsense here I don't know where to begin.

If a player, like Horcoff or Gilbert is overpaid they become dead money because they are playing below replacement value...AND...they cannot be traded unless you take a similar bad contract back in return.

How's that Vandermeer thing working out?

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#66 Ribs
November 27 2010, 12:56PM
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Who is sheltering Ryan Whitney, who happens to be a month younger than Gilbert?

The same guys that are sheltering Gilbert?

Seeing as Whitney has the same cap hit as Gilbert, I guess you could put him in the same category as Gilbert as a teams top paid defenseman at 27yrs old or younger. Would you have the same expectations for either of these guys that you would from the other 27yrs old and younger crowd (Weber, Phaneuf, Green, etc.)?

Whitney's played over a full seasons worth more games than Gilbert and by all rights should be further along than him. I don't think the gap is that big and that gives Gilbert the edge for me. To each his own, I suppose.

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#67 reaperfunkss (2nd tier fan)
November 27 2010, 01:02PM
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Gilbert had 1 decent year and has never gotten back to it. He has looked nervous and lost on most nights the past couple seasons. A change of teams may help turn him around or may not. Expectations can be a bitch sometimes.

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#68 Dennis
November 27 2010, 01:41PM
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RB: you know you're allowed to like both 6 AND 77 because I have noticed you have been a huge fan of 6 from pretty day Day One:)

That being said, I think 77 will bounce back but if you're right and he doesn't then you won't win any prizes.

I was dead right about Lowe and I still haven't received a gdamn thing;)

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#69 Cory Dakin
November 27 2010, 01:41PM
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Completely off topic question...

Does anyone know the intro song that the Oilers skate out to this year?

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#70 Robin Brownlee
November 27 2010, 01:44PM
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@Cory Dakin

"Sometimes When We Touch" by Dan Hill

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#71 Cory Dakin
November 27 2010, 01:47PM
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Very fitting choice, indeed.

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#72 Quicksilver ballet
November 27 2010, 01:51PM
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Not many teams could pull it off but i remember the Oilers came out for pre game warm up to Star Wars. What a difference 30 yrs makes.

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#73 Horcsky
November 27 2010, 01:57PM
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@DSF

Not sure why we need to move Horcoff or Gilbert, because they are actual NHL players on a team full of fringe NHLers that may never play for a team not in last place. Horcoff and Gilbert were paid because the GM at the time wanted to ensure that these actual NHL players remained career Oilers. They were never intended to be moved, and have become franchise cornerstones over the last few years (and for the next few), whether you like it or not.

Jim Vandermeer, if looked at in a vacuum, is not working out very well. His play has been marginal. However, taken in the context of how he was acquired, and the circumstances of this team, he is an upgrade on Patty O'Lanterns. O'Sullivan was waived by the 'Canes, and would've been waived by the Oil if Tambo didn't pull the wool over the Coyotes GM's eyes. O'Sullivan didn't fit on a team overloaded with developing wingers, and Vandermeer fills a need as an NHL journeyman D, even if he's filling it poorly.

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#74 DSF
November 27 2010, 02:09PM
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Horcsky wrote:

Not sure why we need to move Horcoff or Gilbert, because they are actual NHL players on a team full of fringe NHLers that may never play for a team not in last place. Horcoff and Gilbert were paid because the GM at the time wanted to ensure that these actual NHL players remained career Oilers. They were never intended to be moved, and have become franchise cornerstones over the last few years (and for the next few), whether you like it or not.

Jim Vandermeer, if looked at in a vacuum, is not working out very well. His play has been marginal. However, taken in the context of how he was acquired, and the circumstances of this team, he is an upgrade on Patty O'Lanterns. O'Sullivan was waived by the 'Canes, and would've been waived by the Oil if Tambo didn't pull the wool over the Coyotes GM's eyes. O'Sullivan didn't fit on a team overloaded with developing wingers, and Vandermeer fills a need as an NHL journeyman D, even if he's filling it poorly.

If nearly 20 percent of your cap space is tied up in 2 players who can't possibly play up to their contracts, you have a problem, whether you like it or not.

When there are others like Khabibulin compounding that problem, you have an issue whether you like it or not.

If we're to be believe the media rumours, Tambellini has tried to move both Horcoff and Gilbert but can't, whether you like it or not.

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#75 Horcsky
November 27 2010, 02:19PM
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@DSF

You're right, it's probably not advisable to spend that much on two guys who aren't carrying the team on their backs. However, and I can't stress it enough, it's not holding them back from adding another player of a similar contract, because they have space. They just can't because of the reasons we've been over and over. Free agents are reluctant to sign, and we have few movable assets to bring such a player over in a trade.

Is there any player that's been on the team since Tambellini was hired that he hasn't tried to move? Besides, what do we get back even if these guys are on "bargain" contracts. There's no point in trading for players of similar skill, since the team is going nowhere without a major overhaul. So it's just picks and prospects coming back in a trade, and we're in the same position we're in now, except the games are even more painful for the fans, players, and coaches.

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#76 DSF
November 27 2010, 02:42PM
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Horcsky wrote:

You're right, it's probably not advisable to spend that much on two guys who aren't carrying the team on their backs. However, and I can't stress it enough, it's not holding them back from adding another player of a similar contract, because they have space. They just can't because of the reasons we've been over and over. Free agents are reluctant to sign, and we have few movable assets to bring such a player over in a trade.

Is there any player that's been on the team since Tambellini was hired that he hasn't tried to move? Besides, what do we get back even if these guys are on "bargain" contracts. There's no point in trading for players of similar skill, since the team is going nowhere without a major overhaul. So it's just picks and prospects coming back in a trade, and we're in the same position we're in now, except the games are even more painful for the fans, players, and coaches.

Try and think beyond today.

Horcoff and Gilbert are going to be on the books until 2015 and 2014 respectively.

If you believe that everything is hopeless until then, I guess you have a point but,if the team tries to build a winner in that timeframe, then those contracts are important in that they will limit other moves.

And, of course, they also affect the team's salary structure since other players and their agents will use them as benchmarks when they negotiate new contracts.

If Hemsky, for example, re-signs with the Oilers, how do you think he and his agent will view Horcoff's contract? Based on the dollars involved, it would be reasonable to assume Hemsky would be asking for $6M or more although any sane person would think that to be excessive.

If Whitney continues to be the team's top defenseman (heaven forbid) and is still sheltering Gilbert, what do you think his salary expectations will be?

The contracts are signed and the players aren't likely going anywhere until they expire but that doesn't mean they aren't important.

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#77 Horcsky
November 27 2010, 03:12PM
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Length of contract is definately important, if you want to use that as the basis of your argument, I'd agree with you almost completely. There's not too many players that should be signed into their mid to late thirties for the same amount of money they'll make during their prime years.

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#78 Wedge
November 27 2010, 03:15PM
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Thanks Robin !! After laughing to death, I have that stupid Dan Hill song in my head.

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#79 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
November 27 2010, 03:19PM
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DSF wrote:

If nearly 20 percent of your cap space is tied up in 2 players who can't possibly play up to their contracts, you have a problem, whether you like it or not.

When there are others like Khabibulin compounding that problem, you have an issue whether you like it or not.

If we're to be believe the media rumours, Tambellini has tried to move both Horcoff and Gilbert but can't, whether you like it or not.

I always love these $$$ conversations. Want to see how easy it is to create cap space? Check out the Oilers summer - 2010.

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#80 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
November 27 2010, 03:21PM
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DSF wrote:

Try and think beyond today.

Horcoff and Gilbert are going to be on the books until 2015 and 2014 respectively.

If you believe that everything is hopeless until then, I guess you have a point but,if the team tries to build a winner in that timeframe, then those contracts are important in that they will limit other moves.

And, of course, they also affect the team's salary structure since other players and their agents will use them as benchmarks when they negotiate new contracts.

If Hemsky, for example, re-signs with the Oilers, how do you think he and his agent will view Horcoff's contract? Based on the dollars involved, it would be reasonable to assume Hemsky would be asking for $6M or more although any sane person would think that to be excessive.

If Whitney continues to be the team's top defenseman (heaven forbid) and is still sheltering Gilbert, what do you think his salary expectations will be?

The contracts are signed and the players aren't likely going anywhere until they expire but that doesn't mean they aren't important.

What is this? 1985? I'm pretty sure agents will use league wide salary when presenting their case, not just team specific.

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#81 DSF
November 27 2010, 04:01PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

What is this? 1985? I'm pretty sure agents will use league wide salary when presenting their case, not just team specific.

So you're expecting Hemsky to sign for less than Horcoff?

Right.

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#82 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
November 27 2010, 04:11PM
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DSF wrote:

So you're expecting Hemsky to sign for less than Horcoff?

Right.

Did I say that?

.95ish PPG guys get 5.5+. I expect Hemsky to get 5.5+ regardless of what Horcs contract is. (baring some form of cap cheating deal.)

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#83 Clarkenstein
November 27 2010, 04:14PM
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Horcsky wrote:

If Tom Gilbert is on a team where he's a 5th or 6th dman, that team is equipped with a D corps ready to go deep into the playoffs.

Lets be careful about the "Gilbert is overpayed" argument. I don't see the relevence of his contract to his play, just like it doesn't apply to Horcoff, Penner, Foster, etc. The team has cap space, we aren't handcuffed by large contracts.

Seriously? The reason the Oilers have cap space is because they are doing everything in their power to weaken the team for another DFL finish and thus a lottery pick. By deduction you are okay with the money and therefore the value in Horcoff, Penner and Gilbert. Not me.

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#84 DSF
November 27 2010, 04:32PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Did I say that?

.95ish PPG guys get 5.5+. I expect Hemsky to get 5.5+ regardless of what Horcs contract is. (baring some form of cap cheating deal.)

Do they really all get $5.5M +?

Corey Perry makes $5.3M. Bobby Ryan $5.1m

Boston doesn't have one forward making that kind of dough.

Joe Pavelski makes $4M

I could go on and on and on but if you think Hemsky is automatically worth more than $5.5M it would be pointless.

Teams don't win by overpaying second tier players like Horcoff and Gilbert. They just don't.

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#85 Wanye
November 27 2010, 05:24PM
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Great read LT. Just great.

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#87 Biowolf
November 27 2010, 06:47PM
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Gilbert has gone the way of all Oiler prospets (Smid, Gags , Cogs, Nilsson, Brule etc): downhill. There is a common denominator. What´s the reason ? What are these guys doing off the ice ?

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#88 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
November 27 2010, 06:53PM
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DSF wrote:

Do they really all get $5.5M +?

Corey Perry makes $5.3M. Bobby Ryan $5.1m

Boston doesn't have one forward making that kind of dough.

Joe Pavelski makes $4M

I could go on and on and on but if you think Hemsky is automatically worth more than $5.5M it would be pointless.

Teams don't win by overpaying second tier players like Horcoff and Gilbert. They just don't.

....anyways....

You are trying to pretend that because Horc is overpaid, Hemsky will make more.

Even if Horc made 1 million they could look around the league and point Drury and Gomez making 7+ for far less $$$..... ie your point is irrelavant.

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#89 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
November 27 2010, 06:55PM
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DSF wrote:

Do they really all get $5.5M +?

Corey Perry makes $5.3M. Bobby Ryan $5.1m

Boston doesn't have one forward making that kind of dough.

Joe Pavelski makes $4M

I could go on and on and on but if you think Hemsky is automatically worth more than $5.5M it would be pointless.

Teams don't win by overpaying second tier players like Horcoff and Gilbert. They just don't.

Just for the hell of it (not that throwing out those numbers had anything to do with the original point)

Everyone you listed signed as RFA's, not UFA's so they didn't have the levarage of the true, open market.

Savard has a cap cheating deal and other then that they don't have a forward that was/is a consistant .9+PPG game.

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#90 speeds
November 27 2010, 07:13PM
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Ashley wrote:

Hi Archaeologuy,

Thanks for your comments. There have been a few bad goals this year, but they are few and far between. Many of the 5 hole goals I can recall were deflections or excellent screens on shots from the point (or poor defensive clearing of the screening offensive player, depending on how you look at it).

As far as shots against/game, I am sure that the Oilers do lead the league in that category, but again, I argue that we are falling into a stats trap. Shots against only tell part of the story. The quality of those shots and the goaltender's view of the incoming shot are of critical importance. The shots against and SP stats ignore those qualitative measures. So I disagree with your impression and and rationale for Khabibulin's performance, but I am happy that we can agree to disagree. Completely.

My understanding, from past reading around the internet, is that the importance of quality of shots against, in terms of influence on sv % over a season of shots, is much smaller than most fans believe - that the "team effect" is much smaller than most would think as far as impacting a goalie's sv %.

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#91 DSF
November 27 2010, 07:51PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

....anyways....

You are trying to pretend that because Horc is overpaid, Hemsky will make more.

Even if Horc made 1 million they could look around the league and point Drury and Gomez making 7+ for far less $$$..... ie your point is irrelavant.

Hemsky is NOT going to arbitration.

He and his agent would be negotiating a contract based on his value to the Oilers.

He is more valuable to the Oilers than Horcoff ergo he will want to be paid more.

Sheesh,

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#92 DSF
November 27 2010, 07:52PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

....anyways....

You are trying to pretend that because Horc is overpaid, Hemsky will make more.

Even if Horc made 1 million they could look around the league and point Drury and Gomez making 7+ for far less $$$..... ie your point is irrelavant.

Never take a knife to a gunfight, son.

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#93 GSC
November 27 2010, 08:33PM
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There should be a statistic for puck battles lost. Gibby would be right up at the top.

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#94 SrCain
November 27 2010, 09:50PM
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@GSC

I would love to see that stat as well. In most cases, a goal is scored because several players make a mistake on any given play. Thats hockey and you do that by putting pressure on players. Gilbert is a good at the first pass out of his zone, when he has all day. If he doesnt, he is a turnover machine, who appears to have little desire to try a second or third time to get the puck back.

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#95 SrCain
November 27 2010, 09:51PM
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or make the safe play out of his zone the first time

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#96 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
November 27 2010, 11:53PM
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DSF wrote:

Hemsky is NOT going to arbitration.

He and his agent would be negotiating a contract based on his value to the Oilers.

He is more valuable to the Oilers than Horcoff ergo he will want to be paid more.

Sheesh,

Wait, what? You mean he isn't going to arbitration??? Wow, thanks for the info!!!P>

Hold on a second, where do you think a guy has more leverage??? When he's in front of an arbitrator??? Or when he actually can walk away and sign with the highest bidder??? Boy that's a tough one.

Now assuming you can access any team in the league, what do you think would be more profitable?? looking at the other 12 contracts of forwards on your team?? .... Or, could it be looking at the 360 contracts league wide??? ... another tough one....

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#97 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
November 28 2010, 12:03AM
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DSF wrote:

Never take a knife to a gunfight, son.

A knife to a gun fight? Pretending his agent doesn't have 600 contracts to look at when negotiating his next contract is bringing a knife to a gun fight.

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#98 hoil
November 28 2010, 12:15AM
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Wanye wrote:

Great read LT. Just great.

Hear, hear!

Gilbert has had a mediocre start to the season, but he still has a reasonable value as a player and asset.

People can bitch about Lowetide's use of statistics being misleading, but he is pretty straightforward and honest in the way he lays it out. If LT wasn't so good at making his points, people wouldn't follow him here and at his own blog. He doesn't trick us with slickness and chicanery.

If LT's detractors like DSF were as clever as they think they are, they might have people follow them on their own blogs...instead of having to lower themselves to the unpaid scrum of message boards.

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#99 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
November 28 2010, 12:43AM
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hoil wrote:

Hear, hear!

Gilbert has had a mediocre start to the season, but he still has a reasonable value as a player and asset.

People can bitch about Lowetide's use of statistics being misleading, but he is pretty straightforward and honest in the way he lays it out. If LT wasn't so good at making his points, people wouldn't follow him here and at his own blog. He doesn't trick us with slickness and chicanery.

If LT's detractors like DSF were as clever as they think they are, they might have people follow them on their own blogs...instead of having to lower themselves to the unpaid scrum of message boards.

You should check out DSF's own blog, fine work... fine work indeed.

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#100 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
November 28 2010, 12:44AM
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Deke Rivers wrote:

His value to the Oilers is not relative to Horcoff it's relative to what else is available to the Oilers across the rest of the league. Trying to crystal ball into the future is pointless. If there are 4 other players of similar productively and any one of them is willing to sign for a number less than Horcoff, Hemsky takes the what the market will pay him, not what Horcoff's contract suggests he should be paid.

I'm not sure what the point is of referencing Gilbert and Horcoff as a roadblock for future growth. UFA/RFA market is based on league wide market price not what individuals on a team make. Of course if the Oilers want to extend him before his contract expires this puts the ball more in Hemsky's court.

If no one else is available how much money is Hemsky's points worth to the Oilers then? do they say no because DSF said it would be crazy to overpay or do they look at there own situation and decide if they are willing to pay the price.

Exactly what I've been trying to get accross.

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