Calder Race Heating Up

Lowetide
December 03 2010 07:36AM

After three big road games, the Oilers rookies are moving up the scoring race. Although leading the league in total rookie points is not a guarantee of winning the ROY, it certainly helps. Being famous and scoring ridiculous goals that make Sportsentre's Plays of the Day/Week/Month also help. The Oilers have two strong candidates.
 

Winning the Calder would be historic for Hall or Eberle. For all the phenomenal talent that Oiler fans have watched over the years, none won the Calder (which is as ridiculous as it sounds). Maybe the hockey Gods owe us one, but it looks to me as though one of these two kids could win it outright:

  1. Jeff Skinner (CAR) 24gp, 7-12-19 -4
  2. Jordan Eberle (EDM) 25gp, 5-13-18 -1
  3. Logan Couture (SJS 24gp, 10-5-15 +2
  4. Derek Stepan 27gp, 6-9-15 -1
  5. Taylor Hall 25gp, 8-6-14 -2

There are other candidates (Shattenkirk, Subban and Carlson among the D and goalie Bobrovsky is dynamite). Having said all that, it looks like the Oilers are going to have a really good shot at winning this thing. The best chance since maybe Jason Arnott over a decade ago.

I don't like to spend a lot of time on newer stats at ON, but this is an important item. RelCorsi measures total shots for and against while specific players are on the ice. This measurement goes back decades, innovative coaches were using it in the 1970's. Here are the relCorsi's for the 5 players above. I should mention that Corsi is a tool best used to compare players on the same team, but it does show a strong trend:

  1. Hall (EDM) +14.8
  2. Eberle (EDM) +10.4
  3. Logan Couture (SJS) +9.2
  4. Derek Stepan (NYR) +3.6
  5. Jeff Skinner (CAR) +0.9

Hall and Eberle are playing against tough competition and the puck is going the right way. Music! I'm hopeful one of these young men wins some hardware, it would be a solid indicator for the future. But in reality we already have it.

Let the good times roll.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#1 shanetrain
December 03 2010, 07:51AM
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Paajarvi could find himself in the mix if everything goes his way as well.

It's finally good to be an Oiler fan again!

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#2 dohfOs
December 03 2010, 07:53AM
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Looking good..

Couture, Stepan and Skinner better watch out for MPS once Hemsky is back!

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#3 baggedmilk
December 03 2010, 07:54AM
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Hall keeps getting better and better. Every time this kid has the puck something is going to happen. Incredible to watch.

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#4 OilFan
December 03 2010, 08:06AM
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What about Seguin ?

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#5 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
December 03 2010, 08:16AM
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Re Seguin: He's currently sitting at half (or less) the production of the first two.

He's tracking to have a 31 point in 82 game season, he'll need a hell of a final 55 games to get in the running.

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#6 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
December 03 2010, 08:18AM
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Seems Skinner has slowed considerably, though I'm sure he'll be a fine NHL'er I think he got a bit ahead of himself with his start.

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#7 Chaz
December 03 2010, 08:19AM
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My pipe dream for the rest of the year is for the discussions here at ON to switch from the negative stuff (whining about certain players, focussing on losing enough to ensure a lottery pick, etc...) to discussing which of our rookies will win the Calder. Way more positive and upbeat that way. Hall has been unreal and it's amazing to see his performances improve steadily with his confidence. Keep it up boys.

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#8 Clarkenstein
December 03 2010, 08:20AM
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I expect Hall and Eberle to run away with the rookie points lead after Christmas. Multiple, multiple point games.

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#9 Chaz
December 03 2010, 08:20AM
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@ Oilfan

I think Boston is still considering letting him go to play at the WJC too.

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#10 Epicus
December 03 2010, 08:57AM
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Clarkenstein wrote:

I expect Hall and Eberle to run away with the rookie points lead after Christmas. Multiple, multiple point games.

If those two stay together on a line (And I cant see a reason why they wouldn't) I fully agree! Both Hall and Eberle seem to get better with every game, and I must say I am surprised to see Horc as such a good fit!

Go Oil! Even if those two getting better means we are out of the top 5 pick! Go Oil!

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#11 Jason Gregor
December 03 2010, 09:26AM
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LT,

I really doubt that Corsi numbers will come into play. You said it yourself that it works best comparing players from the same team.

The worst scenario for Hall and Eberle is that both are in the running. They'd probably split votes then. Carlson and Bob have been very good early, but there are lots of games left.

If I'm a betting man, I'd say Hall will have the best chance to end the Oilers Calder drought. It would be a great feat, and a story book ending for OIL CHANGE.

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#12 Dman09
December 03 2010, 09:40AM
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Head to head race between Eberle and Hall for top in the league. I'd love to see Eberle take it but I think it will likely go to Hall partially because of all the hype hes had and because he is living up to the hype.

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#13 DSF
December 03 2010, 09:57AM
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Forgotten here is Cam Fowler who is playing 22 minutes a night on the Ducks' blue line and has scored 12 points in 21 games as an 18 year old.

Bob McKenzie mentioned in passing the other night he might be the best player to come out of the draft.

Worth keeping an eye on.

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#14 MrCondor
December 03 2010, 10:02AM
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LT/Willis:

How many first overall draft picks have won the Calder? I can't find the data anywhere.

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#15 Quicksilver ballet
December 03 2010, 10:12AM
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I use to feel it would be playing with Shawn Horcoff would cost one of these two kids the Calder, now i feel one will win it despite having to play with Horcoff.

The kids are usually the Oilers best players most nights, what the heck is Horcoff going to teach these kids. Now that Lowe has set a precendent with Horcoff at a 5.5 cap hit, do we even entertain the thought of extending Hemsky? Horcoff has to go, just to restore sanity to this franchise again, but i guess it could be Quebecs problem with Katz playing Family Fued yesterday. Happy weekend all.

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#16 madjam
December 03 2010, 10:14AM
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OILER BASHING BANISHED ? Time for new prognostifications ? HMMMM, how's this for size ? Generally takes 20 games for newbies to adjust to new team , just like trade deadliners generally take before melding properly into lineup .

Maybe Oiler defence not as bad as first thought over first 20 games ? Lately they seem far better at both ends of rink . They even seem like they may be competent and contributing . The Gagner group seems to be showing promise finally along with Peckham and other newbies . Dare i say they look like they are becoming a team ?

I forcast the team needed 11 victories and 1 OL and 3 SO to get back to .500 over next twenty games and they are well over that pace in last 5 games . They could beat that pace at current rate . Surprised , yes but hope they keep it going . I don't mind eating crow when they are playing well and trying their best .

The rookies are starting to come and have not disappointed from the start of season all thins considered . Thank goodness rest of squad is starting to come and help them along . A lot of things might be possible this season if they play as a team . I might even have to change my opinion of management at this rate , but it'll take a lot more convincing than just mid season .

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#17 OILERSORDEATH
December 03 2010, 10:15AM
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DSF wrote:

Forgotten here is Cam Fowler who is playing 22 minutes a night on the Ducks' blue line and has scored 12 points in 21 games as an 18 year old.

Bob McKenzie mentioned in passing the other night he might be the best player to come out of the draft.

Worth keeping an eye on.

What! Is McKenzie high? Maybe the best D-player but not the best player because we got him.

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#18 Dyckster
December 03 2010, 10:16AM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

I use to feel it would be playing with Shawn Horcoff would cost one of these two kids the Calder, now i feel one will win it despite having to play with Horcoff.

The kids are usually the Oilers best players most nights, what the heck is Horcoff going to teach these kids. Now that Lowe has set a precendent with Horcoff at a 5.5 cap hit, do we even entertain the thought of extending Hemsky? Horcoff has to go, just to restore sanity to this franchise again, but i guess it could be Quebecs problem with Katz playing Family Fued yesterday. Happy weekend all.

Did it ever cross your mind the kids may be having success BECAUSE they're playing with Horcoff? Not in spite of playing with him.

Cup half empty much?

*Facepalm*

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#19 OILERSORDEATH
December 03 2010, 10:20AM
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As of late the Oil have playing some decent hockey. Since a team like LA who have been struggling to score is so rich on D-guys should the Oilers engage in trade talks with them? Penner and/or Cogs for Muzzin/Hickey or Martinez? Any Thoughts?

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#20 Yeah
December 03 2010, 10:25AM
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They are now contributing against crappy eastern teams (why jeff skinners numbers are bigger), theyre on the way up :). Big improvement since september. Remember the superstar preseason? Well its on its way back into the oilers gameplan

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#21 JJmorrocco
December 03 2010, 10:30AM
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Hey LT what are the stats for east vs west in ROY? Since its discretionary and voted on I would tend to believe the east wins a lot more of these since that where the exposure is.

The east just got a taste of what we have been seeing for 20 games - hopefully it clicked for them!

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#22 positivebrontefan
December 03 2010, 10:38AM
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I say continue to evaluate the team as it is and let the kids play in all situations as they have been, seems to be working so far. I'd like to see Paarvi play with Gagner and Hemsky more to see what he can really do, my guess is he will be right up there with the other kids in no time.

Good job Renney.

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#23 Dunnonuttin
December 03 2010, 10:38AM
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@Jason Gregor

It'd be pretty dissapointing if neither of these two won the Calder simply because of vote splitting.

Wasn't Gretzky barred from Calder consideration because he had played in the WHA?

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#24 madjam
December 03 2010, 10:38AM
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What should we do with Flames third round pick to the Oilers this next draft. Trade it back to them , or keep it ? Whom on Flames would be a reasonable player for us that would have Oilers give them back that pick ?

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#25 Dyckster
December 03 2010, 10:41AM
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Hey Jason,

Any word if Hemsky will be a go tomorrow against St. Lou?

Or will we have to wait until tomorrow mornings skate to find out.

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#26 Dominoiler
December 03 2010, 11:01AM
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Madjam Said:

"Maybe Oiler defence not as bad as first thought over first 20 games ? Lately they seem far better at both ends of rink . They even seem like they may be competent and contributing . The Gagner group seems to be showing promise finally along with Peckham and other newbies . Dare i say they look like they are becoming a team ?"

Playing against toronto definitely helps!.. That being said, I dont fully understand all the hate for vandermeer and I think Gibs is playing very aggressive (not overly physical, but still imposing himself on the play - esp. in transition to offence).. good signs...

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#27 Horcsky
December 03 2010, 11:03AM
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@ Lowetide

Can you post Horcoff's relCorsi please?

Edit: nvm - relCorsi Horcoff - +6.9

Also, with Horcoff leading the way in hard scoring plays, as per Staples link: https://docs.google.com/Doc?docid=0ARMC4T3agcfmZDQ2cTRxOF82MzZkMjlmOGRn&hl=en , it's pretty safe to say he's not holding anyone back. I'm talking to you quicktroll ballet.

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#28 D-Man
December 03 2010, 11:07AM
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madjam wrote:

What should we do with Flames third round pick to the Oilers this next draft. Trade it back to them , or keep it ? Whom on Flames would be a reasonable player for us that would have Oilers give them back that pick ?

We keep the pick... I would have told you last year you were nuts to consider even talking to the Flames for a trade, but considering the Staios trade - who knows now...

Unless Giordano is available (and he's not since he recently signed a multi year deal) - I seriously can't see us talking to the Flames at all this year...

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#29 D-Man
December 03 2010, 11:09AM
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The better question is if Hall or Eberle wins the Calder this year, will the other person get jealous?? Considering the fact they're roommates and both pretty competitive, there might be some foreseen hatred, breaking up the duo... Perhaps we petition the Oilers to allow Wanye, Ender or Scientist to move in with the pair, just to keep the peace??

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#30 Ryan2
December 03 2010, 11:18AM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

I use to feel it would be playing with Shawn Horcoff would cost one of these two kids the Calder, now i feel one will win it despite having to play with Horcoff.

The kids are usually the Oilers best players most nights, what the heck is Horcoff going to teach these kids. Now that Lowe has set a precendent with Horcoff at a 5.5 cap hit, do we even entertain the thought of extending Hemsky? Horcoff has to go, just to restore sanity to this franchise again, but i guess it could be Quebecs problem with Katz playing Family Fued yesterday. Happy weekend all.

Wow, why all the hate for Horcs? Is the contract a bad one? Definitely. However, he is a useful player that is doing well with the rooks on his line. While he may cost them a bit offensively, it seems like he is doing a good job of helping them learn the NHL game, especially defensively.

WRT Hemmer, I would definitely try to re-sign him if I were Tambi. The team has cap space and will likely clear some more when Penner's contract expires/he is traded (as much as I would like to keep him, he is probably going to sign with LA or ANA as a UFA). Hemmer has taken his game to a new level leadership and playing wise this year. Keeping him would give the Oil a great set of top 6 wingers that could compensate for the donut effect from a weakness down the middle.

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#31 A Sad Panda
December 03 2010, 11:23AM
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D-Man wrote:

The better question is if Hall or Eberle wins the Calder this year, will the other person get jealous?? Considering the fact they're roommates and both pretty competitive, there might be some foreseen hatred, breaking up the duo... Perhaps we petition the Oilers to allow Wanye, Ender or Scientist to move in with the pair, just to keep the peace??

Well Malkin won the calder competing against Jordan Staal and they went on to win the cup a couple years later so I doubt it will create any debilitating jealousy. I'm guessing the runner up would simply be happy for the other as they are apparently best friends and roommates.

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#32 D-Man
December 03 2010, 11:26AM
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A Sad Panda wrote:

Well Malkin won the calder competing against Jordan Staal and they went on to win the cup a couple years later so I doubt it will create any debilitating jealousy. I'm guessing the runner up would simply be happy for the other as they are apparently best friends and roommates.

..simply be happy or be relegated to shining his roommates shiny trophy?? Wayne, Ender or Scientist must move in to ensure this potential powderkeg doesn't explode in Tambo's face... :)

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#33 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
December 03 2010, 11:26AM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

I use to feel it would be playing with Shawn Horcoff would cost one of these two kids the Calder, now i feel one will win it despite having to play with Horcoff.

The kids are usually the Oilers best players most nights, what the heck is Horcoff going to teach these kids. Now that Lowe has set a precendent with Horcoff at a 5.5 cap hit, do we even entertain the thought of extending Hemsky? Horcoff has to go, just to restore sanity to this franchise again, but i guess it could be Quebecs problem with Katz playing Family Fued yesterday. Happy weekend all.

Thanks for the laugh. Horcoff has been fantastic with Hall/Eberle.

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#34 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
December 03 2010, 11:29AM
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MrCondor wrote:

LT/Willis:

How many first overall draft picks have won the Calder? I can't find the data anywhere.

to hard to search wikipedia for 38 seconds?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calder_Memorial_Trophy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_NHL_draft_picks

knock yourself out

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#35 Szach
December 03 2010, 11:33AM
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Hesus... W/O Horc you do not put 2 rookies on the same line and enjoy their success... He makes them go and that is the beauty of it - they play and he is the parachute that provides the soft landing when needed. Only one of his kind on the team and others as well that can be depended on to allow Hall and Eberle to do what they do. Good for them and good for Oil to have Horcoff to lead them...

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#36 madjam
December 03 2010, 11:40AM
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If Eberle , Hall and Paajarvi put up respectable numbers and keep progressing ahead of schedule , what are the chances anyone would want to leave the Oilers ? How long before UFA's etc . might want in to play with them ? Go rookies go !

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#37 Horcsky
December 03 2010, 12:08PM
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Hmm, Stauffer not doing anything to make the Quebec cluster!@#$ look like it's not a threat on Oilers lunch today.

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#38 mayorpoop
December 03 2010, 12:09PM
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@d-man

not fully understanding or appreciating a wayne, a scientist or an ender i like the idea of steely hands mcfist to room with the loser of the calder, he sounds like he could work the cry out of them!

eberle will win calder....soo smart!

hall looked like a duck near a syncrude sight for the first bit of the season...scared and nervous! much much better lately.

if is not horcoff taking a beating them its cogs or gagner or pens....day dependant.

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#39 Max Powers - Team HME Evans
December 03 2010, 12:10PM
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*sigh.

Still waiting for an Oiler to win some individual hardware in my adult-life time. I don't consider E. Moreau's King Clancy a piece of hardware to get too excited about.

I remember 10 years ago watching Chris Drury pick up the Calder and I've been longing for an Oiler acceptance speech ever since.

Soon.

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#40 It's Hall Over!
December 03 2010, 12:19PM
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Where are all the Hall haters now? You know, the guys that said Hall would get destroyed and couldn't handle the physical play in the NHL.

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#41 mayorpoop
December 03 2010, 12:22PM
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Where are all the Hall haters now? You know, the guys that said Hall would get destroyed and couldn't handle the physical play in the NHL.

@it's hall over,

in the closet with tom cruise. they will come out eventually.

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#42 George
December 03 2010, 12:24PM
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Horcsky wrote:

Hmm, Stauffer not doing anything to make the Quebec cluster!@#$ look like it's not a threat on Oilers lunch today.

Stauff is one of Katz's boys. Wants to support Team New Arena if he can. Although it is a good idea for the city to have a new shack, as a broadcaster Staffer is helping with his boss's agenda.

Not surprising really.

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#43 Horcsky
December 03 2010, 12:41PM
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George wrote:

Stauff is one of Katz's boys. Wants to support Team New Arena if he can. Although it is a good idea for the city to have a new shack, as a broadcaster Staffer is helping with his boss's agenda.

Not surprising really.

No, not surprising at all. My point was that it's very telling.

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#44 Oilers89
December 03 2010, 01:32PM
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These kid's are very special, I don't think that there are very many rookies that join the league and face top line competition (they probably wouldn't face top line comp on better teams) and manage to outplay, outchance them, etc. I'm guessing that almost no rookie/rookies have done this, guys like Crosby and Ovie probably did, all I am saying is that I am very excited and believe that these guys will leave all other rookies in their dust by the end of the year. P.S Horcoff looks great with these guys!

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#45 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
December 03 2010, 01:48PM
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MrCondor wrote:

LT/Willis:

How many first overall draft picks have won the Calder? I can't find the data anywhere.

gilbert perrault 1970-71

denis potvin 1973-74

bobby smith 1978-79

dale hawerchuk 1981-82

mario lemieux 1984-85

bryan berard 1996-97

ovechkin 2005-06

patrick kane 2007-08

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#46 encore
December 03 2010, 02:25PM
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WE DONT NEED A TOP 5 PICK :D Eberle 22nd overall... and paajarvi 10th overall.

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#47 Crashing for Couturier
December 03 2010, 03:17PM
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The calder is no indicator of sucess, for example, Stamkos did not win the calder, but in retrospect, he is the most dominant rookie from that year. Horcoff is becoming a much better playmaker than I ever gave him credit for, he sets up those rookies pretty nicely, not a great shooter, but a good set up man.

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#48 Oilers89
December 03 2010, 03:39PM
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Crashing for Couturier wrote:

The calder is no indicator of sucess, for example, Stamkos did not win the calder, but in retrospect, he is the most dominant rookie from that year. Horcoff is becoming a much better playmaker than I ever gave him credit for, he sets up those rookies pretty nicely, not a great shooter, but a good set up man.

I agree and last game Horcoff had the sickest sauce to Hall I was very impressed.

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#49 John Chambers
December 03 2010, 03:39PM
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@Crashing for Couturier

This is a valid point, CfC. Because you have rookies who are 18 (Hall & Skinner), 20 (Eberle, and Carlson), 22 (Bobrovsky), and anywhere in between, the Calder race isn't a great measuring stick for who will be the best NHL player based on performance during their first NHL season.

It would be nice to have an Oiler win the hardware, but it's a poor determinant of future success.

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#50 Zed
December 03 2010, 03:53PM
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encore wrote:

WE DONT NEED A TOP 5 PICK :D Eberle 22nd overall... and paajarvi 10th overall.

Say you were an Oiler scout and you had a choice between:

Roast chicken (pick #1) or prime rib (pick #2) -OR-

Brown mystery meat with gravy (pick #10) or the squishy stuff in that green sauce in the buffet line up (pick #11).

All four choices could be winners, but if you had to pull a Pendergast and choose one that tastes like the underside of an elephant's armpit. Which dish would you pick?

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