The Calder

Lowetide
July 12 2010 08:19AM

The Edmonton Oilers are extremely likely to have a strong rookie-of-the-year candidate in 2010-11. They have three outstanding prospects (Magnus Pääjärvi, Jordan Eberle, Chipper Jones) and enough job openings to make one believe anything is possible.

Some coaches/managers dole out minutes to rookies with a thimble, others are more generous. They key is being "NHL ready" which is something Oilers rookie forwards have rarely been over the last decade. Ales Hemsky came to the show early because the organization felt he could learn more in the NHL than playing another season in the Q. Sam Gagner arrived in TC fall 2007 fresh from an international tournament and weeks ahead of many others in terms of conditioning.

Craig MacTavish didn't have a lot of "big minutes" rookies during his Edmonton coaching career. Here are his forwards, with their total time-on-ice in rookie seasons.

  1. Sam Gagner (07-08) 1238:31
  2. Andrew Cogliano (07-08) 1112:17
  3. Kyle Brodziak (07-08) 1033:24
  4. Jarret Stoll (03-04) 945:18
  5. Patrick Thoresen (06-07) 776:33
  6. Ales Hemsky (02-03) 712:12
  7. Jason Chimera (02-03) 710:06
  8. Marc Pouliot (06-07) 600:12
  9. Dom Pittis (00-01) 506:13
  10. Liam Reddox (08-09) 481:39
  11. Brad Winchester (06-07) 476:18
  12. Mike Comrie (00-01) 466:54
  13. Shawn Horcoff (00-01) 452:12
  14. Fernando Pisani (02-03) 375:18
  15. Jean Francois Jacques (06-07) 292:44
  16. Zach Stortini (06-07) 207:27
  17. Brian Swanson (00-01) 174:38
  18. Mike Bishai (03-04) 128:18
  19. Tony Salmlelainen (03-04) 125:27
  20. Michel Riesen (00-01) 118:53
  21. Jani Rita (02-03) 114:26
  22. Steve MacIntyre (08-09) 86:07

There were maybe 5 rookies who got big time playing time (the top 4 and Comrie when he signed) in their rookie seasons. Hemsky was given 153 minutes on the powerplay, a large portion of his rookie season. He was spotted too, meaning his chances of being a strong Calder candidate were dashed by not getting enough at-bats (even with only 712 minutes of ice-time, Hemsky finished 2nd in the NHL in rookie assists, 2002-03).

Of note here are the three rookies who played more than 1,000 minutes in 2007-08. Gagner, Cogliano and Brodziak got a lot of playing time in their first season, although only Gagner got big PP minutes (Cogliano got quite a few too, with Brodziak getting PK time).

Tom Renney handled rookies in a similar way in his time as head coach. In his 4 (well most of 4) seasons with the Rangers, Renney doled out the rookie minutes to forwards thusly:

  1. Brandon Dubinsky (07-08) 1188:59
  2. Dominic Moore (05-06) 1022:28
  3. Petr Prucha (05-06) 931:02
  4. Nigel Dawes (07-08) 792:04
  5. Lauri Korpikoski (08-09) 742:09
  6. Ryan Callahan (07-08) 643:29
  7. Ryan Hollweg (05-06) 376:40

Last season, NHL coaches gave 9 rookie forwards 1000+ minutes of time on ice. The Colorado Avalanche had three of them (Matt Duchene, Ryan O'Reilly, TJ Galiardi) and would probably be the template for this season's Oilers crop up front. Duchene received an enormous amount of PP time and the other two were given extened auditions on the PK. I'm not certain if there's a penalty-killer among the Oilers kids but we'll see.

Finally, which of these kids is most likely to be the frontrunner on his own team? Desjardins NHL equivalenvies give us an educated look at the problem. Desjardins NHLE's have impressive predictive power, but these three young players are very close in terms of potential offense:

  1. Jordan Eberle 22-24-46
  2. Taylor Hall 17-29-46
  3. Magnus Pääjärvi 16-22-38

None of them have shown themselves as "complete" players, offering a wide range of skills and giving the coach a trustworthy option in all areas. If I had to guess which of the three emerges as the strongest Calder candidate, it would be Taylor Hall. First overall means he'll get all kinds of opportunity, his Desjardins NHLE is as impressive as Stamkos at the same age, left-wing is wide open on the Oilers and what better way to signal a new beginning than to see your first overall pick win the Calder the following season. It has "Gilbert Perreault" style appeal, a young organization going in the right direction. Finally, and perhaps most important, he is a "shooter" and that might give him a slight edge on the PP role that might be open for one rookie; however, the other two are no slouches in this department.

The truth is any of these three could win the Calder trophy in 2010-11.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
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#1 Chris.
July 12 2010, 08:24AM
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Is Dubnyk still eligible?

*snorts some more juice crystals

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#2 Cru Jones
July 12 2010, 08:47AM
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Nice to see that switching sites hasn't diminished your capacity for posting double the content of everyone else combined Lowetide.

For some reason, the one guy out of the three that I think might greatly exceed expectations is Eberle. He's got less tangible tools than Hall or Magnus in the sense that's he not especially big or fast, but he's shown an uncanny knack for being in the right spot at the right time, which is a tool that just can't be taught.

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#3 Bar Qu
July 12 2010, 08:47AM
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It may depend on how run-n-gun Renney lets things get. If he is more about getting his players to cover off for their porous defense, then their point totals may suffer. But if he lets go of the traces and gives some auditions on the PP to the rooks, then we might see a Calder winner.

And for my money, I am going with the guy who has demonstrated success at each level - Eberle.

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#4 Bar Qu
July 12 2010, 08:48AM
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Cru Jones wrote:

Nice to see that switching sites hasn't diminished your capacity for posting double the content of everyone else combined Lowetide.

For some reason, the one guy out of the three that I think might greatly exceed expectations is Eberle. He's got less tangible tools than Hall or Magnus in the sense that's he not especially big or fast, but he's shown an uncanny knack for being in the right spot at the right time, which is a tool that just can't be taught.

What he said.

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#5 the tikk
July 12 2010, 08:50AM
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thus > thusly

There's not enough shelter on this team to get all three through the storm. Someone's gonna get soaked.

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#6 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
July 12 2010, 08:50AM
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Those seem like resonable projections, I cringe when I see people talking 50-60+ points for these guys.

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@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

Well Hall was getting compared to Kane right before the draft so is 50-60 that far off? I'm thinking that 50-60 for all three off them is what is off.

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#8 macaotim
July 12 2010, 08:57AM
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For the record two things...

1. I don't think any of these guys will win it.

2. In 5 years I think Eberle will be the best player of the lot and, hopefully, team captain.

I Eberle's hockey senses are second to none, he seems to have the right work ethic/attitude, he's savvy during interviews and he knows magic!

What's not to love?

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#9 madjam
July 12 2010, 08:58AM
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Lets not forget about Omark , whom might be most complete of bunch as well up front . Plante might even emerge on defence ? We certainly have an abundance of youth with credentials we have never seen in the past busting on to the scene at the same time perhaps. Not just one or two either !

Might there even be more added to squad before season starts thru trade, etc.?

Maybe the days of the MERCENARY hockey player fetish is over , or fast closing the doors to them ? More and more clubs are finding the temporary results of adding these Mercenary hockey players have short term gain followed by long term pain . Hossa leaves much devastation behind every where he leaves from if you have noticed , just like Pronger and the likes .

In retrospect, maybe Oilers are better off not picking up some of these Mercenary hockey players , and building with a cheaper more stable draftees with upsides and more cap friendly ? A core that's affordable and reliable to build around . One that you don't have to gut to accommodate the huge contract length and cap shrinkage that the big ticket Mercenary hockey players seem to command .

Will the market for the high priced Mercenary hockey players reduce itself in coming years to their final year of contracts , rather than risk having to keep them and gut your team as several have had to do to accommodate them ? The market place is a changing or reinventing itself slowly thru the cap system .

I wonder if the Calder trophy can be shared by all 3 or more Oiler rookies - a tie in other words ?

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#10 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
July 12 2010, 09:00AM
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Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach wrote:

Well Hall was getting compared to Kane right before the draft so is 50-60 that far off? I'm thinking that 50-60 for all three off them is what is off.

Ya, I think it's resonable to see 50 - 60 out of Hall. It's guys throwing out:

70 for Hall 60 for Eberle 55 for MSP

that I'm talking about.

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#11 Archaeologuy
July 12 2010, 09:21AM
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Seguin for the Calder!!!

*Suddenly remembers the draft day memory he repressed*

Eberle for the Calder!!

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#12 Ducey
July 12 2010, 09:25AM
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The boys on the bus never won a Calder. It would be the first for the organization

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#13 Nate Full of Hate
July 12 2010, 09:29AM
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Seguin for the Calder!!!

** can't remove tattoo **

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#14 Lofty
July 12 2010, 09:32AM
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I would argue that MPS will have the best season out of the three next year (eventhough he might not get as many games as Hall if he starts in the AHL.)

The guy is used to playing with Men and has the type of game that can get "cheap/easy" points. He goes to the net and shoots the puck hard like Hall but just has a bit more experience.

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#15 Lofty
July 12 2010, 09:34AM
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Tough to win a lot of Calders when you don't draft in the top ten... it can be done but it ain't easy.

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#16 Archaeologuy
July 12 2010, 09:37AM
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Lofty wrote:

Tough to win a lot of Calders when you don't draft in the top ten... it can be done but it ain't easy.

Which would make Eberle winning over Hall or MPS so sweet

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#17 Nate Full of Hate
July 12 2010, 09:44AM
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Dear Lowetide,

Would you like me to come up with more articles for you to write on?

For weeks I've suggested the Oilers could should have a Calder Trophy winner.

Milli Vanilly thinks you should come up with your own material.

Thanks.

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@Lofty

The last two winners were 12th overall picks and 69th overall. Actually only 4 of the last 10 are top 10 picks and they were Heatley, Ovechkin, Malkin and Kane.

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#19 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
July 12 2010, 09:54AM
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madjam wrote:

Lets not forget about Omark , whom might be most complete of bunch as well up front . Plante might even emerge on defence ? We certainly have an abundance of youth with credentials we have never seen in the past busting on to the scene at the same time perhaps. Not just one or two either !

Might there even be more added to squad before season starts thru trade, etc.?

Maybe the days of the MERCENARY hockey player fetish is over , or fast closing the doors to them ? More and more clubs are finding the temporary results of adding these Mercenary hockey players have short term gain followed by long term pain . Hossa leaves much devastation behind every where he leaves from if you have noticed , just like Pronger and the likes .

In retrospect, maybe Oilers are better off not picking up some of these Mercenary hockey players , and building with a cheaper more stable draftees with upsides and more cap friendly ? A core that's affordable and reliable to build around . One that you don't have to gut to accommodate the huge contract length and cap shrinkage that the big ticket Mercenary hockey players seem to command .

Will the market for the high priced Mercenary hockey players reduce itself in coming years to their final year of contracts , rather than risk having to keep them and gut your team as several have had to do to accommodate them ? The market place is a changing or reinventing itself slowly thru the cap system .

I wonder if the Calder trophy can be shared by all 3 or more Oiler rookies - a tie in other words ?

I started reading this post despite the source because it was separated into paragraphs. That was a mistake.

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#20 Mike Modano's Dog
July 12 2010, 09:58AM
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I'll make a guess here... Even though I love Eberle I am picking MPS to be the best of the bunch for this year. I don't have a crystal ball to foresee which one will be best long-term, but I'll pick MPS for the Calder at this point.

(Eberle sure looked good at the Dev. Camp though, didn't he?!)

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#21 Mike Krushelnyski
July 12 2010, 09:58AM
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Nate Full of Hate wrote:

Dear Lowetide,

Would you like me to come up with more articles for you to write on?

For weeks I've suggested the Oilers could should have a Calder Trophy winner.

Milli Vanilly thinks you should come up with your own material.

Thanks.

I'm calling right now that there should be an article about the upcoming season sometime around late-September. If anyone does one, you owe me a quarter in royalties for coming up with the idea!!

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#22 Chris.
July 12 2010, 09:59AM
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@Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things

The PeeWee Playhouse secret word of the day: Mercenary!

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#23 Mike Krushelnyski
July 12 2010, 10:01AM
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Nate Full of Hate wrote:

Dear Lowetide,

Would you like me to come up with more articles for you to write on?

For weeks I've suggested the Oilers could should have a Calder Trophy winner.

Milli Vanilly thinks you should come up with your own material.

Thanks.

Whoops double post

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#24 Ducey
July 12 2010, 10:01AM
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Nate Full of Hate wrote:

Dear Lowetide,

Would you like me to come up with more articles for you to write on?

For weeks I've suggested the Oilers could should have a Calder Trophy winner.

Milli Vanilly thinks you should come up with your own material.

Thanks.

Hate,

You are so smart your talents are obviously not being used to their fullest. I suggest you spend your time starting your own Blog - you know - elsewhere.

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#25 Rogue
July 12 2010, 10:03AM
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Ducey wrote:

The boys on the bus never won a Calder. It would be the first for the organization

Gretzky was not eligible, what a crock, politics. Kurri and Anderson debuted the same season and 1 of them should have won, if it wasn't for Peter Stastny. Grant Fuhr had a great rookie season but lost out to Dale Hawerchuk. Jason Arnott lost to Martin Brodeur. Those were the only times that any Oiler had a shot at the Calder.

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#27 Matt.N
July 12 2010, 10:10AM
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Since the 79-80 expansion there have been 30 Calder Trophy winners. Only 8 of them have been teenagers. Only one of those has happened in the last decade (Kane). Among those names are some generational talents(Lemeuix, Bourque) of which Taylor Hall most likely isn't.

Not saying it can't happen (see Kane, Patrick) but this it's a rare player that can jump straight into the NHL from his draft year and dominate.

If I had to be on one of the 3, I would take the guy who has been playing against men for 2 years. MP(S).

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#28 book¡e
July 12 2010, 10:13AM
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Probably one of Hall's or Eberle's parents came up with the concept of them winning the Calder about 10 years ago - long before they were on anyone in the NHL's radar.

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#29 HardBoiledOil
July 12 2010, 10:13AM
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Matt.N wrote:

Since the 79-80 expansion there have been 30 Calder Trophy winners. Only 8 of them have been teenagers. Only one of those has happened in the last decade (Kane). Among those names are some generational talents(Lemeuix, Bourque) of which Taylor Hall most likely isn't.

Not saying it can't happen (see Kane, Patrick) but this it's a rare player that can jump straight into the NHL from his draft year and dominate.

If I had to be on one of the 3, I would take the guy who has been playing against men for 2 years. MP(S).

^^^what he said :-)

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#30 Archaeologuy
July 12 2010, 10:14AM
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Lowetide wrote:

Oh Nate. I didn't steal it from you, it is an idea that's been out there for a long time. I mentioned it here:

http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2010/06/summer-2010-top-20-prospects.html

but the truth is that someone probably posted it months ago. You and I mulled it over, agreed and then began posting about it.

Right? I mean, we're all influenced by each other, can we agree? And there are a lot of smart folks on the internet.

It has been my experience in life that the guy/girl who came up with the original idea is rarely the one posting about it BEING their idea on the internet. They're original thinkers, and have moved on.

As should we. :-)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6j8EiWIVZs

It's the first thing I thought of after reading this

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#31 hajeverle
July 12 2010, 10:20AM
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@Lowetide

well played

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#32 hat pughes
July 12 2010, 10:24AM
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Quoting Lowetides article .... The Edmonton Oilers are extremely likely to have a strong rookie-of-the-year candidate in 2010-11. They have three outstanding prospects (Magnus Pääjärvi, Jordan Eberle, Chipper Jones) and enough job openings to make one believe anything is possible.

So who is this Chipper Jones guy??? How did we miss him at the Development Camp...

And guess this means Taylor is in OKC?

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#33 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
July 12 2010, 10:26AM
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Nate Full of Hate wrote:

Dear Lowetide,

Would you like me to come up with more articles for you to write on?

For weeks I've suggested the Oilers could should have a Calder Trophy winner.

Milli Vanilly thinks you should come up with your own material.

Thanks.

Dear Nate,

Please provide a link to your blog.

Thanks.

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#34 Oilers Insider
July 12 2010, 10:26AM
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@ Lowetide

Agreed. Many articles and reading influence the thoughts and continuation of those thoughts into other articles and readings.

Heck, I just wrote a peice as a slight continuation of your last article about the depth chart.

I've been meaning to get your feedback. Feel free to add us to your blog roll too. You've been on ours for a while as we find your stuff a must read.

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#35 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
July 12 2010, 10:28AM
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Nate Full of Hate wrote:

Dear Lowetide,

Would you like me to come up with more articles for you to write on?

For weeks I've suggested the Oilers could should have a Calder Trophy winner.

Milli Vanilly thinks you should come up with your own material.

Thanks.

That's some ground breaking ideas you had their Nate. A team that just picked first overall + 2 of the most highly touted prospects potentially playing with a shot at having a calder winner, who would have thought.

Bravo.

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#36 Hallisimo
July 12 2010, 10:31AM
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I've been saying for the last three months that Magnus would not only win the calder this year but that in 3-5 years time he will turn out to be the best of the 3 rooks. Magnus will be our franchise player in 5 yrs, think along the lines of a peter forsberg in his prime playing for edmonton.

You heard it here first.

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#37 Hat Pughes
July 12 2010, 10:36AM
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Hey good news...this Chipper Jones guy has game...this is his scouting report.

"Advance Update There are three reasons for Jones' success this year and on an ongoing basis:

1. Mechanics. Chipper has a good start to his swing, which means he is short to the ball. In other words, he has a more direct path to the contact point. The opposite would be a loop, where the batter gets underneath from the start of his swing and has a more indirect, and usually more inconsistent, path to the ball. Being short to the ball enables Jones to hit the ball to all parts of the field and wait longer before committing to swinging. He thus gets a better read on each pitch.

2. Experience. Chipper's experience helps him in ways that are difficult to measure. He knows the game, knows particular situations and has a good command on the pitchers he faces. That gives him an advantage in individual match-ups.

3. Good fortune. It's a good time to be a major leaguer with the talent of a Chipper Jones because of the poor state of pitching. Most teams struggle to develop and field strong pitching staffs (despite the vast resources available to them), as witnessed by the fact that the following were among a host of mediocre starters who got Opening Day nods this year: Odalis Perez (Washington), Jeremy Guthrie (Baltimore), Gil Meche (Kansas City), Livan Hernandez (Minnesota) and Ian Snell (Pittsburgh).

Strengths • Clutch performer

• Power from both sides of the plate (.566 slugging as a lefty and .508 as a righty for his career)

• Plus defender, capable of playing third base, left field and first base...Im stoked

• Great instincts on the bases

• Can hit to all fields, which makes him more difficult to defend

• Large hitting zone, which enables him to take advantage of more mistake pitches

Weaknesses • Injuries have been a problem with Jones since 2003. After playing in 153 games that season, he's tallied 137, 109, 110 and 134 since. He's missed just six games this year, but he's been struggling with a leg strain.

• No longer has great speed and isn't much of a base stealing threat. He had 97 steals in his first six seasons, but has only 39 over the past eight seasons, including this year.

• Defensively he's lost a step from his range.

Defense Chipper has some of the best angles to the ground balls of any third baseman. He's able to move right or left better than moving forward and backward, which is okay since as a third baseman most balls are hit to his left or right. Chipper reads the first hop as well as anyone in the game, and he's able to anticipate based on the start of a hitter's swing.

Read more: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/06/11/scoutingreport.chipper/#ixzz0tUE8jGg3"

So good O...good D.

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#38 Quicksilver ballet
July 12 2010, 10:39AM
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Nate Full of Hate wrote:

Dear Lowetide,

Would you like me to come up with more articles for you to write on?

For weeks I've suggested the Oilers could should have a Calder Trophy winner.

Milli Vanilly thinks you should come up with your own material.

Thanks.

Do you put your own pants on when you leave the house in the morning sir?

Just say no to drugs Nate.

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#39 Matt.N
July 12 2010, 10:41AM
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@ Hat Pughes:

Stare at the pic on that Chipper Jones scouting report you just quoted. Then stare at the pic of Taylor Hall on the Oilers website. When you make the connection, let us know.

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#40 tkfisher
July 12 2010, 10:41AM
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All those in favour of voting "Nate Full of Hate" off the island for his comments bad mouthing Lowetide?

The only thing i wish is that there were more posts. That and the motion i've proposed to be carried.

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#41 madjam
July 12 2010, 10:41AM
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Brule , Omark and Svensson one line . Horcoff , Eberle and Penner another line. Hemsky , Gagner and Hall another line . Stortini , Fraser and Giroux another line . Which one would emerge as first line of the first three ?

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#42 DC
July 12 2010, 10:58AM
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I made a bet about 4 months ago with my freind Andy that MPdroptheS was going to win the Calder. After prospect camp I am not changing my vote. Magnus wins the Calder this year.

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#43 Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
July 12 2010, 11:02AM
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madjam wrote:

Brule , Omark and Svensson one line . Horcoff , Eberle and Penner another line. Hemsky , Gagner and Hall another line . Stortini , Fraser and Giroux another line . Which one would emerge as first line of the first three ?

What leads you to believe that Omark or Giroux are going to be playing in the NHL this year?

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#44 Eddie Shore
July 12 2010, 11:05AM
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Magnus Pääjärvi Svensson will win it. Book it!

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#45 madjam
July 12 2010, 11:09AM
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If Horcoff rebounds and centers Omark and Svensson , then i give my vote to a darkhose in Omark because of work ethic and likeability with fans .

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#46 MWA1991
July 12 2010, 11:11AM
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@Lofty

Exactly what I was thinking. MPS has already had a rookie year and played extremely well. I think it sets him up to be the best rookie on the team if he's given the minutes.

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#47 Archaeologuy
July 12 2010, 11:11AM
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madjam wrote:

If Horcoff rebounds and centers Omark and Svensson , then i give my vote to a darkhose in Omark because of work ethic and likeability with fans .

Omark wont even make the team out of camp.

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#48 DC
July 12 2010, 11:11AM
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madjam wrote:

If Horcoff rebounds and centers Omark and Svensson , then i give my vote to a darkhose in Omark because of work ethic and likeability with fans .

Likability doesn't win the Calder, nor does work ethic.

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#49 Quicksilver ballet
July 12 2010, 11:12AM
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Maybe we shouldn't make fun of Nate guys.

Career combined NHL point totals.... between Nate and Wayne Gretzky, they have amassed an impressive total of 2857 career points.

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#50 I'm a Scientist!
July 12 2010, 11:12AM
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Hmm, a lot of people seem to think that the Calder is a lock out of Edmonton... i am not so sure. What about Kadri? He should be playing this year too...right? He might be in the running.

I am not convinced that Edmonton will have the Calder winner, but if i had to choose one of the three to do it, my vote would be on Eberle. This is also assuming that all three play this year.

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