Six Degrees of Separation
Lowetide
July 14 2010 08:20AM
Earlier this week, I was listening to NHL radio on XM/Sirius. They're running old playoff series during the summer, and this particular day it was G1 SCF 2006. I turned the radio so quickly it startled the passengers. I don't know that I'll ever be able to watch or listen to G1 SCF 2006. However, there are some things to be learned from that hockey club.
The 2006 Edmonton Oilers had a lot of very good players before the trade deadline. Pronger and Peca arrived in summer, and they had an immediate impact on the team. The deadline (adding Roloson, Spacek, Tarnstrom, Samsonov) marked Oiler management's high water mark for the decade and we all enjoyed that wonderful team and their terrific run to the Stanley cup finals. Many look back on that team's regular season (barely won 8th in the conference) and suggest it was a weak team that got hot at the right time. Rubbish. It was an outstanding team in search of goaltending until the deadline. Anyone who watched that spring knew this team could win a playoff round or more.
It would be a mistake to give too much credit to the hired guns that season. The 2005-06 Edmonton Oilers were blessed with 6 stunning "value contracts" and their presence gave the team exceptional depth (especially up front) and more than one line capable of outscoring the best opposition. Here are the players, their contracts and their accomplishments that season (in alpha order):
- Marc Andre Bergeron ($931k). Bergeron played 1600 minutes in the 05-06 season, 350 of that on the powerplay. He delivered 2.74/60 with the man advantage but was pretty solid at EVs (1/60) and his 15-20-35 for the season was exceptional for the price.
- Ales Hemsky ($901,740). Hemsky played 1375 minutes in the 05-06 season, slightly over 400 of them on the powerplay. His PP/60 number (6.17) was very nice, his EV number 2.25 was a little better than he managed this past season (2.09); that PP number helped him lead the team in scoring (19-58-77) and he delivered 6-11-17 in the playoffs too. A wonderful payoff for less than a million, a season to remember.
- Shawn Horcoff ($1M). Horcoff played almost 1600 minutes, almost 300 on the PP and 225 on the PK. In 05-06 he went 3-3-6 on the PK (about 1.6/60), went 4.82/60 on the PP and then 2.44 at EVs and this was against the other team's good players. A very underrated season when all was said and done.
- Fernando Pisani ($611,800). In 05-06 he was excellent in the regular year and ridiculous in the postseason. Pisani played 1100 minutes in 05-06, 150 on the PP. He did a lot of heavy lifting at EVs and still managed to score 1.84/60 and 3.59 on the PP. Pisani was Guy Lafleur in the post season, 14-4-18 in a run I will never forget. At $611,800 he was ridiculous value.
- Jarret Stoll ($501,600). Stoll played 1500 minutes in 05-06, 410 on the PP and 200 on the PK. He was a pretty valuable hockey player. On the PP he was 4.53 and at EVs he was 2.35 on the way to 82gp, 22-46-68 totals. At the price, he was extremely valuable.
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Raffi Torres ($875,000). Raffi played 1100 minutes in 05-06, 224 of them on the PP. He's pretty famous for wandering out there but his results have always been solid. His EV number in 05-06 (2.07) and his PP number (2.95) were very good considering he spent little time on the club's top line or #1 PP. Torres' biggest moments in the season came during the playoffs when he made some massive hits (one of which had an impact on the SJS series). At this price, he was a bargain.
Taylor Hall is a huge part of the Edmonton Oilers future, but his entry level contract (with bonuses) is $3.75 million dollars a year. Since the club will no doubt start burning that entry level deal this fall, chances are that Hall won't over-deliver on that contract based on expectations for a teenager in the NHL. A young man like Tyler Pitlick--should he stay in junior and sign at age 20--has an excellent chance of being a "value contract" at a time when the Oilers should be pushing for a deep run into the playoffs (2012, 2013, 2014).
Which players could deliver the most value this season? Colin Fraser (.825M); Smid (1.3M); Dubnyk (.800M). RFA's Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano and Gilbert Brule could also deliver more than their contracts, but we don't know their cap number yet. The rookies mentioned here are unlikely to outperform their cap hits as rookies, but in year two and three it is entirely possible.
With Pääjärvi (1.525M), Eberle (1.158M) and Linus Omark (.875M) joining Hall as possible rookies, years two and three of their entry-level contracts offer a real opportunity for creating a list similar to the 2006 group above (although Hall will have his work cut out for him). Add Vande Velde, Peckham, Lander, Plante, Petry and a host of young pro level kids, plus Pitlick, Marincin and a few other quality picks (should they develop) and this team should have a nice group of value contracts in the next few seasons. We can only hope for a group as strong as the 2006 six.
This is the most important area for the team. Big name free agents, high cost offer sheets, even #1 overall picks bring their own cap hits and a team must pay 100 cents on the dollar. Those value contracts--like the ones we saw in 2006--will allow the Edmonton Oilers some separation from the rest of the NW division.
Hecht has his ugly contract run through to 11/12. Puke.
Can you create a stat that measures effort?
Making your own stats is like an egg mangement fee...
Better than Sourays. Souray for Hecht anyday! Good call RC. The question I think is not if the Oilers are interested, rather if the Sabres are. I think they will try for Kaberle first. If we are lucky Souray second.
Just like Souray.
My thoughts exaclty RE: Kaberle & BUF. There may be a few others ahead of Souray though. Kevin Bieksa, for instance. Drew Stafford could be a nice score for VAN, imo.
Like I said lucky if Souray was second. Beiksa will go before Souray for sure. With the cap room I could see something with Chicago to help them out cap wise. Just a theory, but what do you think of Souray and younger cheaper need in CHI. (not sure if they'd want Cogs) for say Campbell's anchor of a contract and say maybe Bolland. Is there room to work this in to some kind of package?
Once again the point is missed.
Lowetide and many other Oiler observers assess the Oilers' future as if they are playing a vacuum. They aren't.
It's likely the Oilers will need to finish first or a second in the NW division to even make the playoffs never mind be successful.
Virtually every team in The WC has a much better group of veteran talent but many also have the "value" contracts being discussed here.
You have to be successful in both areas to win.
@DC
Can't see the Hawks moving Bolland or Sharp. Maybe they'd move Skille or Beach in order to move Campbell, but I can't see more than a couple teams having interest in his contract... maybe Atlanta (since the Hawks have done them so many favors) or NYI (just to get to the cap floor). And Campbell has a NTC, so chances are he's not willing to waive for either of those destinations.
Are you indirectly agreeing there may be a workable package with the Oilers though?
JW just tweeted about the Barons getting Todd Nelson as head coach.
Colorado could use Brian Campbell...
Nate: All stats mentioned are available here:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/2009/new_5_on_5.php?sort=26§ion=corsi&mingp=40&mintoi=10&team=BUF&pos=F
Gabriel Desjardins is a brilliant source of information, and although I'd love to take credit for any of his work the fact is that he (and others) should get the credit.
Thanks for bringing it up, though. I should have posted it in the original post.
Buffalo won't trade within the division, and probably won't trade a legit prospect that TO is looking for in exg for Kaberle. Buffalo probably won't deal with us either because of the "Vanek incident". Making a deal for a D with Van for Bieksa makes more sense.
No no friends, if we want to deal Souray we'll have to get ugly. To NJ for Zubrus (4 more years $3.88M avg) or To CBJ for Huselius (2 more years at $4.75). ... if we're lucky. Yikes.
Not so much that they're interested in him in particular. BUT, if the Sabres are looking for a PP d-man, Souray may be a fit. The Sabres aren't a cap team, so their main concern is the actual dollars ($4.5M), not the cap hit ($5.4). Obviously, the Oil will need to take some salary back leaving little options. Given that the Oil are looking at adding a two-way 3rd liner (preferably with grit, but oh well), I'd suggest that Jochen Hecht could be a fit... at least in terms of a Souray trade. I wouldn't trade for Hecht outside of a Souray dump, though.
If Colorado wanted to spend the money, I'm sure they'd be in on Kovalchuk rather than taking on Campbell.
For a lil info on Nelson...
http://www.coppernblue.com/2010/7/14/1570299/report-todd-nelson-hired-as-the
Interesting to note, apparently he previously played for Rob Daum.
So is Lowetide a stats guy like Willis ? I respect the stats but they don't paint the full picture.
I read that. Don't know how I feel hiring a guy that we wouldn't hire for the Oil Kings. Unless he impressed at that interview and was the choice all along.
Zubrus "only" has 3 yrs left @ $3.4 cap hit & salary. But of course, we've already discussed this ;-)
http://oilersnation.com/2010/7/6/potential-trade-targets-for-souray
@Oil_Loc8or
I believe Lowetide is the "original" Willis. At least I think Willis has referred to himself in that manner - Lowetide being the reason Willis got into blogging, IIRC.
Nice thanks man. Yeah I read the stats and agree with them until I read about a player I think sucks and the stats show different....Weird hey.
I'm glad Lowetide is now part of the Nation he seems to put lots of effort into getting us an article everyday.i checked out his site but find it harder to browse than the Nation. Good work Lowetide
That works great if your the Old Spice guy and can be every where and see everyone play every shift of every game because he is manly and awesome.
If I knew how to give props I would...
Can you imagine the tail Old Spice Guy & Doseki's Guy could pull if they hit the clubs together?
I couldn't agree more. The advanced stats are somewhat irrelevant if not outright delusive.
Nothing like the school of duck. If it looks like, sounds like, and walks like... it's a duck. Hockey players and there roles and importance are only calculated through observation.
That's enough for me.
@Nate Full of Hate
To give props you have to sign in. Then you can.
I love stats, but...
You can't measure effort, smart hockey plays, and on ice presence.
stats are black & white, you need colour to get the real picture..
problem is, 99% of the fans have little clue how the pro game actually works.. We havent played pro, havent coached, havent sat in the room etc etc etc. watching something alot doesnt really make a person an expert.. does it?
for example, could you go out and build a house after watching alot of "holmes on homes"? or, does it give you enough info to really make you dangerous?
@cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
~So I'm not an 'expert' at porn?~
~well, if your porn name is smallwillyquickdraw, maybe~
Kind of strange that real live NHL teams use them then. I guess the anti-math crew on the net know more about evaluating talent though.
This is funny, watch a game live....
~One day I'll get to see a live game~
Stats aren't everything but I don't ignore them.
This reminds me of a story I once heard of a guy who unveiled something during a PowerPoint presentation, then flipped to a slide with 'Walla!' in bold type.
Dosekis. Heh heh heh.
@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
Stats can be skewed depending on your point of view or what you find relevant.
When you're watching a game at ice level, you can see you keeps up, who players avoid, and who looks the other way in fear.
Cameras only cover so many angles,(HD included)
Riveting.
I agree. Stats can give you a quick glance at someone, but there is no substitute for good old fashioned watching games.
Some people get far too wrapped up in players stats, whether it be the old box cars, or the more advanced stats. As much as I dislike when people quote stats like they're the law though, they can help support an argument, to some extent. But generally people overanalyze stats and often twist them to completely explain an argument, rather than use them sparingly to help support an argument (I do like though if someone uses them briefly to support an argument more so than driving their whole argument with stats).
OB1 - Team Hall wrote:
Are you trying to tell us all that if say the Penguins were looking for a left winger, they would scroll through the stats and then pick their guy? I'm afraid not. They use the stats as a quick glance, and truly pick the right player by evaluating video tape as well as watching them in person. Stats aren't useless, but they're only one part of it. Watching the games is a far more important part of evaluating talent.
Hm... Don Hay not coming to Oilers (via Corey Graham)...
http://www.theprovince.com/sticks+Vancouver+Giants/3279311/story.html
Damn... and the list narrows even further.
I think math and statistics can tell us a lot, but also believe there is more than one way to reach a conclusion.
For instance, NHL teams have been scouting potential draft picks for almost 50 years and have as a group done a splendid job making sure almost all of the elite talent is off the board early.
On the other hand, math/stats can tell us a tremendous amount about context. Generally speaking, if we can agree that previous performance is the best predictor of future performance then there's no real issue.
Age/injury, context (how a player is being used), there really are very few things that will vary performance year over year.
If I say "Robert Nilsson could have a 35 point season in 2010-11 if used properly" it would be my assumption most people would agree. Nilsson HAS in fact posted a 41-point season and two more (29 & 27) in the range.
He's mid-20s, should have a fire lit under his ass and should be affordable to several teams who can sign him and throw 4th line minutes his way. If he takes advantage, he could have a season that resembles his 07-08.
Next up... Marc Habschied? I doubt it, but he'd interest me.
I'm trying to tell you that NHL teams use advanced stats.
Despite what alot of people think, they aren't useless.
Sorry this whole stats thing has been a bit of a sore spot for me lately. I do agree that teams use advance stats (and all forms of stats, really). I think some people are just arguing that there is no substitute for watching a game. Stats can tell you a little bit about a player, but you really have to watch them to see the whole picture.
But I'm definitely not one who believes stats are useless. I just believe they are less important than some people make them to be. Or perhaps I should they they're just to widely open to interpretation for the average person to use them to tell the whole picture well enough. As I mentioned in the post you quoted, I think stats should be used to add a bit of support to an argument, but they shouldn't be the whole basis (which unfortunately, many people too often use them in that way).
Andrew Lang Wrote: He uses statistics as a drunken man uses lampposts—for support rather than for illumination.
I quoted this to Willis a couple years ago after a heated exchange... but I still respect Jon and the value of stats to provide a fresh starting point for discussion. Cheers Nation!
*pouring yet another stiff drink while balancing debt in anticipation of paying for another great year of Oiler season seats*
@Jonathan Willis
Who's the ~goofball~ in your new pic ;-) jk
@ Chris: You and I have had a few of those over the years (is it really years?) and I've always appreciated the fact that we could disagree on things without drifting into some of the pointless internet bickering that goes on here and elsewhere.
Speaking of which, the more I look at the draft, the more I come around to your POV of the Prendergast draft years.
@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
Did anyone see this awful TSN "documentary" Oil Change about the draft? Starring the shining personnalities that are the Oilers senior management team?
Maybe the strangest moment in the show is when Kevin Lowe plunks down at his hotel room computer to read the stats page from the World Hockey Championship.
"Eberle had an assist. That's good. Magnus had a goal!" K-Lowe uttered, then popped a metamucil and took a cat nap.
Teams SHOULD use advanced stats, but they are not statisticians. I'm pretty sure they don't use regression analysis tools, and don't compare player stats against assumption violations. They are also promoted into positions as managers who oversee 8-figure budgets, however usually have no formal management training and experience.
This serves to explain things like Wade Redden's contract or the fact that the Sutters have the league's worst draft record.
@rindog
We should be cool man.
We just disagree about one specific horrific play... A play that will resonate and be debated by enthusiates for the balance of Oiler history. If I met MAB in an airport twenty years from now I'd have him sign my future grandson's hockey card. (No hate) The blog can be a funny animal that lends itself to hyperbole.
Cheers Willis!
I've been drinking... have missed your daily offerings as you've changed careers; and have been struggling with the need to tell you, "I told you so!" *wink*
Thing is: even Brownlee was wrong about Sequin; and though I think you were overly optimistic about some Oiler draft picks... there may have been some development issues.
It takes more courage to write a blog and defend your positons than to just post a few comments attacking those positions. Lord knows I've made more than a few mistakes along the way!
I have a Entry Level contract question. Do the contracts only count in the number of contracts allowed if the players play in the NHL?
Thanks in advance if anyone knows the answer.