Sam Gagner and the Offer Sheet

Lowetide
July 02 2010 06:30PM

The hardest thing to do in hockey is score goals. It is even more difficult when you're a teenager. Sam Gagner is a young man who can impact offense at the NHL level (at a young age) which makes him a very valuable asset. If you're an NHL team looking for a solid young center, a kid who can make things happen even at a tender age, Sam Gagner might be your man.

Gagner is a difficult player to project because he's so young. #89 doesn't have blazing speed, isn't huge and can't shoot the puck with great velocity or lightning release. What is there, then, to recommend him? A lot. Grey matter. Sublime vision, butter passes. Sam Gagner writes cheques with his passes that no linemate (save Dustin Penner) can cash. With all of the ridiculous talent on the wing this fall (Hall, MPS, Eberle) one imagines a Gagner-Penner tandem could produce this season's Calder trophy winner.

Allow me to post some numbers:

  • Boxcars: 68gp, 15-26-41
  • Shots: 170
  • Plus Minus: -8
  • Corsi (Rel): 10.9 (2nd to Penner)
  • GF-GA ON: 37-43
  • 5x5/60: 1.56 (4th among regulars)
  • 5x4/60: 5.74 (1st among regulars)
  • Quality of Competition: 12th F
  • Quality of Teammates: 1st F
  • FO %: 47.4% in 709 FO's
  • Offensive Zone FO %: 48.8 (4th easiest F)

This tells us the following: good boxcars (2nd on the team despite missing much of the season); solid plus minus (only three forwards posted a better number) and a ridiculous Corsi number (Oiler fans should be thrilled with that Corsi at 20). His production at EV strength in a lost season was solid but unspectacular, but his PP number screams "give the kid a chance" and one hopes Renney tosses Shawn Horcoff from the 1PP this fall. The Qual Comp/Qual Team means he was playing in ideal circumstances, which is laughable if you watched even a few Oiler games this season. Having said that, he delivered offensively and defensively based on those softer minutes. His faceoff percentage needs work but is improviing and he had a nice offensive zone faceoff number.What does it all mean? Sam Gagner is a solid young player developing quickly. He is a restricted free agent and could be an offer sheet target.

What would a team offer him? Below are the offer sheet numbers and the compensation required to sign a specific player:

  • $1,020,348 or below: No compensation.
  • $1,020,348 to $1,545,981: A third-round draft choice.
  • $1,545,981 to $3,091,963: A second round draft choice.
  • $3,091,963 to $4,637,944: A first-round choice and a third-rounder.
  • $4,637,944 to $6,183,925: A first- a second- and a third-rounder.
  • $6,183,925 to $7,729,907: Two First-round choices, a second-rounder and a third-rounder.
  • Over $7,729,907: Four first-rounders.

These numbers are for 2010, the new numbers would be a little higher because of the new cap total. A rival NHL team could offer Sam Gagner a long term contract at 3.091M per season (or this year's version of that number) and risk only a 2nd round pick (based on these numbers please correct them if they're wrong or you have an update). Should Edmonton match, an opposition GM has effectively disturbed Edmonton's cap budget moving forward ala Vanek/Buffalo. Should Edmonton refuse to match, your club has a fine young center at an inflated (but not catastrophic) price. The offer sheet is a very expensive item for an NHL club, and I find it curious that the Edmonton Oilers haven't been more aggressive in getting Samwise signed to a contract this summer.It is a calculated risk; Steve Tambellini's cautious approach to spending this summer may end up having a major silver lining.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
Avatar
#101 lowetide
July 03 2010, 02:23PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

The consternation doesn't occur until the missile is overhead. :-)

Avatar
#102 Robin Brownlee
July 03 2010, 02:48PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@TigerUnderGlass

I think I already had a reasonable grip on the concepts contained in your first four paragraphs . . .

As to the fifth, no they don't "need" to sign him to a number they believe will be a bargain two or three years from now -- not this season.

They "need" to see a statement from Sam this season with a one-year deal, then offer a contract that reflects what they see. That's not an approach an agent might like, but it's the responsible approach.

Avatar
#103 DSF
July 03 2010, 06:20PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
David S wrote:

"I'm satisfied that Sam Gagner is going to be a more complete player than most undersized skill centermen. I think much of his value will be in terms of offense, but it is also true that he is tracking as a useful outscorer even this early on (Rel Corsi 10.9, second best to Edmonton's Babe Ruth, and his GF-GA was 37-43 on what was basically the 1899 Cleveland Spiders).

How good can he be? He's in a very nice neighborhood."

--Lowetide

http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2010/06/exploring-gagner-comps.html

It's nice to quote the new guy on the block but his assessment skills are a little suspect.

Pouliot, JFJ are useful hockey players who should be retained, Smid should be traded, Horcoff is a legit #1 centre (and saying otherwise says more about you than it does about Horcoff) and Gagner is an outscorer?????

When? How?. He's getting killed by the softest possible opposition.

Oh wait, his Corsi (a stat actually developed to track goalie movement) is better than some other dregs on the worst team in the National Hockey League.

Lordy.

Avatar
#104 TigerUnderGlass
July 03 2010, 09:02PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Robin Brownlee wrote:

I think I already had a reasonable grip on the concepts contained in your first four paragraphs . . .

As to the fifth, no they don't "need" to sign him to a number they believe will be a bargain two or three years from now -- not this season.

They "need" to see a statement from Sam this season with a one-year deal, then offer a contract that reflects what they see. That's not an approach an agent might like, but it's the responsible approach.

Fair's fair Brownlee - if you get to state the obvious by telling us all your brilliant insight that paying for future performance is a result of the salary cap then I get to point out the obvious too.

It's a philosophical difference - you believe it's responsible while I believe the responsible thing to do is to try and find potential bargains.

...but I should stop before you tell me again how you already know all this.

Avatar
#105 Robin Brownlee
July 03 2010, 09:11PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@TigerUnderGlass

Yes. Yes, you should.

Avatar
#106 TigerUnderGlass
July 03 2010, 10:26PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
DSF wrote:

It's nice to quote the new guy on the block but his assessment skills are a little suspect.

Pouliot, JFJ are useful hockey players who should be retained, Smid should be traded, Horcoff is a legit #1 centre (and saying otherwise says more about you than it does about Horcoff) and Gagner is an outscorer?????

When? How?. He's getting killed by the softest possible opposition.

Oh wait, his Corsi (a stat actually developed to track goalie movement) is better than some other dregs on the worst team in the National Hockey League.

Lordy.

Good to see there's no axe to grind here....

Avatar
#107 TigerUnderGlass
July 03 2010, 10:57PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Robin Brownlee

Off topic:

MPS says he is equally comfortable on either side and the Oiler's website actually has him listed at RW on their depth chart graphic.

I realize that this is probably just to make sure his name is there and means nothing, but have you heard anything about the team wanting to look at him on the right?

If that could work it could really settle the wing position on the top two lines with Hall and Penner on the left and Hemsky and MPS on the right.

Also along those lines, if they tried Hall at center and it works out our future top six could potentially be set, with:

MPS-Hall-Hemsky Penner-Gagner-Eberle.

No way you could run that as your top 6 next year, but down the road that could be a nice lineup.

Frankly, I have no idea how difficult it is to switch positions at the NHL level, so I am at a loss trying to determine who can and can't switch.

Avatar
#108 Robin Brownlee
July 04 2010, 07:55AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@TigerUnderGlass

No way to know until Renney tells us what he foresees.

I know fans love to scratch out lines, but what looks like a match on paper often falls flat when put into practice. I haven't seen enough of MPS to know who he'd complement, regardless of the position he plays.

Avatar
#109 TigerUnderGlass
July 04 2010, 08:52PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Robin Brownlee wrote:

No way to know until Renney tells us what he foresees.

I know fans love to scratch out lines, but what looks like a match on paper often falls flat when put into practice. I haven't seen enough of MPS to know who he'd complement, regardless of the position he plays.

It's true. I don't know how many times certain combinations were considered brilliant but fell apart, and it isn't just hockey. At the same time "looks good on paper" is as good a starting point as you can get isn't it? Your point is why I asked though, because I wonder what the team is considering as possibilities.

Comments are closed for this article.