Sam Gagner and the Offer Sheet

Lowetide
July 02 2010 06:30PM

The hardest thing to do in hockey is score goals. It is even more difficult when you're a teenager. Sam Gagner is a young man who can impact offense at the NHL level (at a young age) which makes him a very valuable asset. If you're an NHL team looking for a solid young center, a kid who can make things happen even at a tender age, Sam Gagner might be your man.

Gagner is a difficult player to project because he's so young. #89 doesn't have blazing speed, isn't huge and can't shoot the puck with great velocity or lightning release. What is there, then, to recommend him? A lot. Grey matter. Sublime vision, butter passes. Sam Gagner writes cheques with his passes that no linemate (save Dustin Penner) can cash. With all of the ridiculous talent on the wing this fall (Hall, MPS, Eberle) one imagines a Gagner-Penner tandem could produce this season's Calder trophy winner.

Allow me to post some numbers:

  • Boxcars: 68gp, 15-26-41
  • Shots: 170
  • Plus Minus: -8
  • Corsi (Rel): 10.9 (2nd to Penner)
  • GF-GA ON: 37-43
  • 5x5/60: 1.56 (4th among regulars)
  • 5x4/60: 5.74 (1st among regulars)
  • Quality of Competition: 12th F
  • Quality of Teammates: 1st F
  • FO %: 47.4% in 709 FO's
  • Offensive Zone FO %: 48.8 (4th easiest F)

This tells us the following: good boxcars (2nd on the team despite missing much of the season); solid plus minus (only three forwards posted a better number) and a ridiculous Corsi number (Oiler fans should be thrilled with that Corsi at 20). His production at EV strength in a lost season was solid but unspectacular, but his PP number screams "give the kid a chance" and one hopes Renney tosses Shawn Horcoff from the 1PP this fall. The Qual Comp/Qual Team means he was playing in ideal circumstances, which is laughable if you watched even a few Oiler games this season. Having said that, he delivered offensively and defensively based on those softer minutes. His faceoff percentage needs work but is improviing and he had a nice offensive zone faceoff number.What does it all mean? Sam Gagner is a solid young player developing quickly. He is a restricted free agent and could be an offer sheet target.

What would a team offer him? Below are the offer sheet numbers and the compensation required to sign a specific player:

  • $1,020,348 or below: No compensation.
  • $1,020,348 to $1,545,981: A third-round draft choice.
  • $1,545,981 to $3,091,963: A second round draft choice.
  • $3,091,963 to $4,637,944: A first-round choice and a third-rounder.
  • $4,637,944 to $6,183,925: A first- a second- and a third-rounder.
  • $6,183,925 to $7,729,907: Two First-round choices, a second-rounder and a third-rounder.
  • Over $7,729,907: Four first-rounders.

These numbers are for 2010, the new numbers would be a little higher because of the new cap total. A rival NHL team could offer Sam Gagner a long term contract at 3.091M per season (or this year's version of that number) and risk only a 2nd round pick (based on these numbers please correct them if they're wrong or you have an update). Should Edmonton match, an opposition GM has effectively disturbed Edmonton's cap budget moving forward ala Vanek/Buffalo. Should Edmonton refuse to match, your club has a fine young center at an inflated (but not catastrophic) price. The offer sheet is a very expensive item for an NHL club, and I find it curious that the Edmonton Oilers haven't been more aggressive in getting Samwise signed to a contract this summer.It is a calculated risk; Steve Tambellini's cautious approach to spending this summer may end up having a major silver lining.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 Oil72
July 02 2010, 10:37PM
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Jamie B. wrote:

Uh. I could be very confused here, but does Gagner fall under the category of players the team can decide to take to arbitration, which means he's protected from an offer sheet? Something like that?

Not until after his fourth season I believe which would be next summer. I'm not too worried about an offer sheet for Gags. Not a cap issue for some teams yet however there aren't too many teams - not including the Oil - looking for a first or second line center at ~ $3M per season.

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#52 Senator Theo
July 02 2010, 10:42PM
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dunciano wrote:

I don't think he's worth $3 mill/ year

OK - you think that Gagner is not worth 3 mil next year. Do you think that next year is the best that Gagner will give the Oilers? If an offer sheet come out, I would have no hesitation in matching given what I expect in years to come.

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#53 RossCreekNation
July 02 2010, 10:44PM
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Via Corey Graham...

Confirmed the Oilers have signed Alex Giroux. More to come on www.team1260.com

Center
Born Jun 16 1981 -- Quebec City, PQ
Height 6.03 -- Weight 202 -- Shoots L

2009-10: Hershey Bears 69GP 50-53-103 34PIM
2009-10: Washington Capitals 9GP 1-2-3 4PIM
NHL career: 31GP 4-5-9 16PIM

I'd think he's #1C in OKC

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#54 Heavyd
July 02 2010, 10:52PM
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@RossCreekNation

We know you're a Oilers fan, when you going to come out and tell us, instead of staying on the bandwagon.

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#55 RossCreekNation
July 02 2010, 10:52PM
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And without reading any comments yet, Sam Gagner... $3.85M/2 yrs, $1.925M per

EDIT1: Comparables: Brandon Dubinsky '09 - $3.7M/2yrs, $1.85M per; Drew Stafford '09 - $3.9M/2 yrs, $1.9 per

EDIT2: After those 2 comparables, perhaps he does slightly better, as his pedigree is slightly higher than those 2.

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#56 speeds
July 02 2010, 10:55PM
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@Woodguy

Woodguy:

Yeah, for sure, it's just talking until an offer sheet is actually signed.

Once signed, it's "irrevocable" unless the "New Club" doesn't have the required compensation (draft picks) available. If they don't, the league declares the Offer Sheet "null and void"

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#57 Senator Theo
July 02 2010, 10:56PM
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dunciano wrote:

I don't think he's worth $3 mill/ year

Further to that - when Penner was signed to his offer sheet, I said to anyone that would listen, "by the time this contract is over, 4 mil will seem like a bargain".

We will say the same if Gagner is stolen for 3 million.

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#58 Oil72
July 02 2010, 10:59PM
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RossCreekNation wrote:

Via Corey Graham...

Confirmed the Oilers have signed Alex Giroux. More to come on www.team1260.com

Center
Born Jun 16 1981 -- Quebec City, PQ
Height 6.03 -- Weight 202 -- Shoots L

2009-10: Hershey Bears 69GP 50-53-103 34PIM
2009-10: Washington Capitals 9GP 1-2-3 4PIM
NHL career: 31GP 4-5-9 16PIM

I'd think he's #1C in OKC

Looks interesting. One way for one year it appears. Nothing on TSN yet.

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#59 GSC
July 02 2010, 11:01PM
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David S wrote:

I dunno. Seems like a prudent business move. We all know Sam is something special. He's qualified so my guess is he'll negotiate a 1 year deal in the $1.2m ballpark. If he has a breakout year, which is entirely possible, he gets the offer sheet money next year.

The Oilers aren't really taking a risk because as I see it "Should Edmonton match, they have a fine young center at an inflated (but not catastrophic) price."

He's gonna get paid sooner or later. The team just doesn't want to break open the vault until they have to.

Still, I can't help but wonder why the team doesn't negotiate a decent long term contract now to see if they can get another Hemsky-esque value deal. Unless of course they tried and Sam wanted a one-year deal knowing he's gonna blow the doors off the place next year.

We all know that Gagner is a special player? Since when?

I wasn't aware that "we" all agree that Sam is something special, last time I checked he's been nothing beyond a 40-point guy in his first three years in the league.

What makes you think he's special?

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#60 Jodes
July 02 2010, 11:02PM
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Oil72 wrote:

Looks interesting. One way for one year it appears. Nothing on TSN yet.

So is this going to be our 4th line guy with Fraser being our 3rd?

Or is this guy going straight to Oklahoma?

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#61 speeds
July 02 2010, 11:05PM
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RossCreekNation wrote:

Via Corey Graham...

Confirmed the Oilers have signed Alex Giroux. More to come on www.team1260.com

Center
Born Jun 16 1981 -- Quebec City, PQ
Height 6.03 -- Weight 202 -- Shoots L

2009-10: Hershey Bears 69GP 50-53-103 34PIM
2009-10: Washington Capitals 9GP 1-2-3 4PIM
NHL career: 31GP 4-5-9 16PIM

I'd think he's #1C in OKC

If they've signed Giroux, I guess they weren't joking about putting together a better team in OKC - Giroux has averaged 55 goals and 100 points in the AHL the last 2 seasons.

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#62 Heavyd
July 02 2010, 11:05PM
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I think a third line of this new guy they just signed, and Comrie, and maybe Eberle, or MPS.

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#63 Oil72
July 02 2010, 11:09PM
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Jodes wrote:

So is this going to be our 4th line guy with Fraser being our 3rd?

Or is this guy going straight to Oklahoma?

Fraser is listed as a center and Giroux as a LW so based on that - not sure. If it's a one way deal wouldn't he need to clear waivers to be sent down?

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#64 speeds
July 02 2010, 11:09PM
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although if he's on a one way, perhaps they have other plans?

Maybe that's what it took to get him signed, and they don't mind paying him 500K to play in the AHL.

Hard to not believe they are deadly serious about improving AHL development if they're willing to spend 500K for a first line player in the AHL...

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#65 Heavyd
July 02 2010, 11:13PM
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Maybe a trade for Cogs is going through thats why they signed him to one year deal.

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#66 Oil72
July 02 2010, 11:14PM
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On another front TSN.ca reports that Flyer's Gagne agrees to waive his no trade clause.

Philly NEEDS to move salary out.

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#67 Senator Theo
July 02 2010, 11:20PM
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GSC wrote:

We all know that Gagner is a special player? Since when?

I wasn't aware that "we" all agree that Sam is something special, last time I checked he's been nothing beyond a 40-point guy in his first three years in the league.

What makes you think he's special?

What makes him special is that he's done everything he's done before he's 21 years old.

look at the top tier centers inn the NHL, and look how the curve goes up after they reach 24-26...Sam Gagner shows a lot to get excited about.

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#68 Jodes
July 02 2010, 11:31PM
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Oil72 wrote:

Fraser is listed as a center and Giroux as a LW so based on that - not sure. If it's a one way deal wouldn't he need to clear waivers to be sent down?

Ah, because reading up on him on Lowetide's site he says he's a Center..

I guess more info will come soon enough.

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#69 Racki
July 02 2010, 11:53PM
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dunciano wrote:

I don't think he's worth $3 mill/ year

I would bet that you won't be saying that in a couple of years though.

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#70 madjam
July 03 2010, 12:01AM
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Gagner $2.5 M over two years(5M) , anything below that , and he might find it insulting enough to want to leave . Should be enough as a retainer, and flexible enough for both to renegotiate even by end of next season if things go good or bad .

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#71 Crash
July 03 2010, 12:45AM
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Senator Theo wrote:

Further to that - when Penner was signed to his offer sheet, I said to anyone that would listen, "by the time this contract is over, 4 mil will seem like a bargain".

We will say the same if Gagner is stolen for 3 million.

Totally agree with that...Gagner is going to be something special...we just can't let him go via the offer sheet or we will regret it...

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#72 Racki
July 03 2010, 12:53AM
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@GSC

~Ya, really.. I mean at age 20 this kid should have at least 2 100 pt seasons under his belt by now! I mean, Gretzky had over 100 points his first year in the NHL, so we should be able to expect that from any of our prospects. This kid is horrible and obviously is a bust.~

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#73 Racki
July 03 2010, 01:17AM
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Oil72 wrote:

Fraser is listed as a center and Giroux as a LW so based on that - not sure. If it's a one way deal wouldn't he need to clear waivers to be sent down?

No, one way and two way deals have nothing to do with waiver status. Based on his 31 games played, I believe he wouldn't have to clear waivers to go down. However, because he has a one-way contract, he will make NHL money to play for OKC.

My suspicion is that because he is a superb AHLer and a mediocre NHLer, he'll be back in the AHL and the Oilers will pay him NHL money happily because he could have made more to go to the KHL this year. If this is the case, then Tambellini and the Oil brass are proving how committed they are to all facets of this team to make the team a winner.

Let's face it, the Falcons were absolutely brutal last year after mid Dec or so (once Doobie was recalled). Having a guy who won back to back Calder cups and led the league in scoring in the regular season and playoffs could go a long way to making OKC a competitve team.

Anyways, Brownlee or Gregor can confirm the Oilers' intentions, but I suspect that's the plan.

edit: hmm, he seems to have his sites set on making the NHL (not that we should expect any less). Perhaps he was brought in to be the next Ryan Stone / Ryan Potulny reclamation project and will play in the NHL after all? Either way, I am sure the Oil will be happy to have him in their system... somewhere.

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#74 bam
July 03 2010, 01:58AM
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Gagner at 3 million is completely fine with me. I would love to lock him up long term to a contract around that cap hit.

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#75 David S
July 03 2010, 03:06AM
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GSC wrote:

We all know that Gagner is a special player? Since when?

I wasn't aware that "we" all agree that Sam is something special, last time I checked he's been nothing beyond a 40-point guy in his first three years in the league.

What makes you think he's special?

This...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I58PtmB6IC0

And this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihQX5tqljJo

His "underlying numbers" have improved immensely. He's like 20 freakin' years old and ahead of Hemsky at the same age (check the numbers). The kid is a gamer, plain and simple. Yeah, maybe I took a bit of dramatic license, but still, he's the goods.

Special? You bet. There's no way we ditch Sam. And if we do, we'll all be regretting it every day for the next 5 years. He's an Oiler and I for one am damn glad he is.

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#76 David S
July 03 2010, 03:06AM
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GSC wrote:

We all know that Gagner is a special player? Since when?

I wasn't aware that "we" all agree that Sam is something special, last time I checked he's been nothing beyond a 40-point guy in his first three years in the league.

What makes you think he's special?

Sorry. Double post. Don't know why.

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#77 olerthendirt
July 03 2010, 07:02AM
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I am always amazed by those who are down on Sam because he didn't become a superstar at 18. I expect Hall will score more, but I see Sam as a future solid first line center, his overall game just keeps getting better. Hope they tie him up for 3 years at what ever it takes.

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#78 DC
July 03 2010, 07:29AM
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Sam is the man. End of story. Should be the future captain! Go Oilers! and BBG!!

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#79 madjam
July 03 2010, 08:02AM
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Gagner a top six forward just yet is questionable . A third line center of note , yes . If Hall moves to center , chances are pretty good Hall may be one of our top two centers . A very effective third line center with offensive flair such as Gagner at $2.5 M a season should be reasonable in the short term . Over committing at his stage right now is questionable . Horcoff will be one of our top two centers , and i still have not seen Gagner prove enough of an overall game to dethrone him .

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#80 GSC
July 03 2010, 08:27AM
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Racki wrote:

~Ya, really.. I mean at age 20 this kid should have at least 2 100 pt seasons under his belt by now! I mean, Gretzky had over 100 points his first year in the NHL, so we should be able to expect that from any of our prospects. This kid is horrible and obviously is a bust.~

Did I compare him to Gretzky? I note your sarcasm, but c'mon I never said anything like that.

I simply disagree that Sam is a "special" talent as of right now. Sure, he's shown glimpses and he's improved over his first 3 years, but I'd like to see some more offence before I get on board the long-term, inflated salary contract train.

In addition, I want to see #89 stronger on the puck. If he's going to have a future in Edmonton, and if he's going to play top six minutes, he needs to enhance that part of his game.

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#81 DSF
July 03 2010, 08:59AM
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David S wrote:

This...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I58PtmB6IC0

And this...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihQX5tqljJo

His "underlying numbers" have improved immensely. He's like 20 freakin' years old and ahead of Hemsky at the same age (check the numbers). The kid is a gamer, plain and simple. Yeah, maybe I took a bit of dramatic license, but still, he's the goods.

Special? You bet. There's no way we ditch Sam. And if we do, we'll all be regretting it every day for the next 5 years. He's an Oiler and I for one am damn glad he is.

What underlying numbers have improved immensely?

He's still playing soft competition (8th Qualcomp among Oilers forwards who played 60 games), his Qualteam was highest and he still got killed.

Any results he did get were driven by playing with Penner.

Why compare him to Hemmer at age 20 when their development path is completely different.

Why not compare him to his contemporaries like Kane, Duchene, Tavares, Stamkos?

They are "something special", Sam, not so much.

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#82 Nate Full of Hate
July 03 2010, 09:01AM
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GSC wrote:

Did I compare him to Gretzky? I note your sarcasm, but c'mon I never said anything like that.

I simply disagree that Sam is a "special" talent as of right now. Sure, he's shown glimpses and he's improved over his first 3 years, but I'd like to see some more offence before I get on board the long-term, inflated salary contract train.

In addition, I want to see #89 stronger on the puck. If he's going to have a future in Edmonton, and if he's going to play top six minutes, he needs to enhance that part of his game.

Sam will be a very successful NHL'er...

He's got the brain for it, hopefully his speed and shot get better..

The Sedin's and Hemsky were floor mats their first few years also.

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#83 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
July 03 2010, 09:01AM
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dunciano wrote:

I don't think he's worth $3 mill/ year

well, derrick brassard and bouchard in minny are both comparables that put gagner in that 3-3.25mil range.

"worth" doesnt apply in the NHL anymore

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#84 Eric Johnson
July 03 2010, 09:16AM
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DSF wrote:

What underlying numbers have improved immensely?

He's still playing soft competition (8th Qualcomp among Oilers forwards who played 60 games), his Qualteam was highest and he still got killed.

Any results he did get were driven by playing with Penner.

Why compare him to Hemmer at age 20 when their development path is completely different.

Why not compare him to his contemporaries like Kane, Duchene, Tavares, Stamkos?

They are "something special", Sam, not so much.

HE'S 20! and you can't compare him to number one draft picks. (yes Duchene went third)

And his results were driven by Penner? did he play with Penner his first season?

Sam is a very good 20yr old in the NHL. he has over a 120 pts in the NHL at 20.

He loves to score, he works hard, he's got a great attitude and he is 20.

sheesh....

Learn some patience people.

BTW Duchene the special player had 55pts in his rookie year. Sam had 49. ~I guess that extra 6 pts, denotes the "special" status~

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#85 Nate Full of Hate
July 03 2010, 09:17AM
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I'd suggest most NHL GM's are just now getting accustom to the CBA and market value.

worth is just assest management now.

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#86 DSF
July 03 2010, 09:33AM
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Eric Johnson wrote:

HE'S 20! and you can't compare him to number one draft picks. (yes Duchene went third)

And his results were driven by Penner? did he play with Penner his first season?

Sam is a very good 20yr old in the NHL. he has over a 120 pts in the NHL at 20.

He loves to score, he works hard, he's got a great attitude and he is 20.

sheesh....

Learn some patience people.

BTW Duchene the special player had 55pts in his rookie year. Sam had 49. ~I guess that extra 6 pts, denotes the "special" status~

So, he should only be compared to 6th overall picks?

If you assert he's "something special" one would think he would be in the mix with those who truly are.

I know he's only 20, actually 21 in a month, but his offensive production has declined from his first year and the claims that his overall game has improved dramatically are tenuous at best.

Far too early to call him "something special"

Sheesh, maybe you should be patient before making claims like that.

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#87 a lg dubl dubl
July 03 2010, 09:43AM
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IMO i see Sam as a younger version of Doug Weight. Gagner is a playmaker center who reads the ice fairly well for his 1st 3 yrs, and you cant really balk at the points Sam has put up, sure his points declined last year but then again so did everyone else's (penner not included) give the guy a break! He will only get better especally if hes on the same line with hemsky or eberle. Sam Gagner will be our 1st line center maybe not this year but hes right on the cusp of being one(and maybe a captain). Id sign him to a 2.5-3 million/yr deal easy! All you haters get off the bus!!!

prediction for sam this year;

goals: 15-20 assists:40-50

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#88 GSC
July 03 2010, 09:58AM
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Eric Johnson wrote:

HE'S 20! and you can't compare him to number one draft picks. (yes Duchene went third)

And his results were driven by Penner? did he play with Penner his first season?

Sam is a very good 20yr old in the NHL. he has over a 120 pts in the NHL at 20.

He loves to score, he works hard, he's got a great attitude and he is 20.

sheesh....

Learn some patience people.

BTW Duchene the special player had 55pts in his rookie year. Sam had 49. ~I guess that extra 6 pts, denotes the "special" status~

Patience? I definitely have patience, hence not wanting to see the Oilers sign him to a long-term, inflated contract until he shows the goods.

No where have I, nor anyone else who disagrees with Lowetide's assessment for that matter, stated that Gagner should be traded or replaced. Nothing of that has been said in the least (at least as far as I've read in the comments).

Patience is doing exactly what I'm doing, waiting until 89 delivers more offensively before shelling out the big bucks.

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#89 GSC
July 03 2010, 10:01AM
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a lg dubl dubl wrote:

IMO i see Sam as a younger version of Doug Weight. Gagner is a playmaker center who reads the ice fairly well for his 1st 3 yrs, and you cant really balk at the points Sam has put up, sure his points declined last year but then again so did everyone else's (penner not included) give the guy a break! He will only get better especally if hes on the same line with hemsky or eberle. Sam Gagner will be our 1st line center maybe not this year but hes right on the cusp of being one(and maybe a captain). Id sign him to a 2.5-3 million/yr deal easy! All you haters get off the bus!!!

prediction for sam this year;

goals: 15-20 assists:40-50

Until #89 becomes stronger on the puck, he won't be another #39.

IMO, that was one of Dougie's most underrated skills. His vision, passing, and creativity was always excellent, but it was hard to get the puck off him once he had it in his possession. Great puckhandler who knew how to protect the puck, used leverage to his advantage.

Gagner needs to learn the same before the two are spoken in the same breath.

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#90 Feast
July 03 2010, 10:08AM
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They can have him!He is a chubby 21 year old 2nd line center.He wont be able to tie MPS's skate laces in the future.................

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#91 RossCreekNation
July 03 2010, 10:37AM
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Granted, they were different ages for these seasons, but let's just take a look back at point totals for their first 3 NHL seasons & the 2nd contract Brandon Dubinsky got...

07/08: 82GP 14-26-40 79PIM
08/09: 82GP 13-28-41 112PIM
09/10: 69GP 20-24-44 54PIM
Career:239GP 47-78-125 247PIM (0.523pts/game

Sam Gagner...

07/08: 79GP 13-36-49 23PIM
08/09: 76GP 16-25-41 51PIM
09/10: 68GP 15-26-41 33PIM
Career:223GP 44-87-131 107PIM (0.587 pts/game)

Dubinsky, a late 2nd round pick in '04, had 2 extra years of Jr. hockey, followed by a year in the AHL before making the jump. He was an RFA coming off of his 2nd full NHL season, a season in which he scored 41 pts in 82 GP (0.5pts/game). At that point, his career totals would have been 170GP 27-54-81 193PIM (0.476 pts/game).

Dubinsky got a $3.7M, 2 year deal ($1.85M per)

Gagner, with little to no bargaining power outside the offersheet route, gets qualified at $0.9625M (if I'm right on the 10% raise, I've heard its only 5% for some). So, outside of an offersheet, the Oilers technically could offer him $1M & Sam has no real bargaining power. However, going this route would be 'playing chicken' with Sam's agent & other clubs. It would also leave a bad taste in Sam's mouth moving forward.

I think a pretty fair short-term offer would be $4.5M/2yrs... about amilli less than I'd ask for if I were Sam. Meet in the middle?

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#93 GSC
July 03 2010, 11:15AM
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RossCreekNation wrote:

Granted, they were different ages for these seasons, but let's just take a look back at point totals for their first 3 NHL seasons & the 2nd contract Brandon Dubinsky got...

07/08: 82GP 14-26-40 79PIM
08/09: 82GP 13-28-41 112PIM
09/10: 69GP 20-24-44 54PIM
Career:239GP 47-78-125 247PIM (0.523pts/game

Sam Gagner...

07/08: 79GP 13-36-49 23PIM
08/09: 76GP 16-25-41 51PIM
09/10: 68GP 15-26-41 33PIM
Career:223GP 44-87-131 107PIM (0.587 pts/game)

Dubinsky, a late 2nd round pick in '04, had 2 extra years of Jr. hockey, followed by a year in the AHL before making the jump. He was an RFA coming off of his 2nd full NHL season, a season in which he scored 41 pts in 82 GP (0.5pts/game). At that point, his career totals would have been 170GP 27-54-81 193PIM (0.476 pts/game).

Dubinsky got a $3.7M, 2 year deal ($1.85M per)

Gagner, with little to no bargaining power outside the offersheet route, gets qualified at $0.9625M (if I'm right on the 10% raise, I've heard its only 5% for some). So, outside of an offersheet, the Oilers technically could offer him $1M & Sam has no real bargaining power. However, going this route would be 'playing chicken' with Sam's agent & other clubs. It would also leave a bad taste in Sam's mouth moving forward.

I think a pretty fair short-term offer would be $4.5M/2yrs... about amilli less than I'd ask for if I were Sam. Meet in the middle?

Leaving a bad taste in his mouth should be the least of Tambellini's worries. The Oilers have followed this course of action before, not wanting to step on too many toes and upset too many players in the organization. Bottom line: this is a business. Like Gordon Gekko said in Wall Street, "if you want a friend, get a dog."

There's nothing wrong with telling Gagner that they want to see more out of him before shelling out the big bucks. It's good business, and it's how the organization needs to be run as opposed to throwing money around and hoping they get lucky.

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#94 Jamie B.
July 03 2010, 11:19AM
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@RossCreekNation

The Rangers really played hardball with Dubinsky, if I recall. Your offer seems resonable but I bet Gagner's agent (who is his agent, anyway? we know it's not Mike Gillis anymore) is telling him to take a one-year deal.

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#95 Robin Brownlee
July 03 2010, 11:32AM
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Consternation about offer sheets on Gagner, like contract offers at $4 million a year to lock him up now, is premature.

I see Sam signing for short money on a one-year term for the upcoming season.

If Gagner progresses to 50-55 points, as I suspect he will, then it makes sense -- for both sides -- to start talking about multiple years in the $3 million to $4 million range.

The rush to lock up a player long-term based on what he "might" do instead of what he's actually done is a product of the new CBA, and it's a risky business. Sam is not going to sulk and demand a trade if the Oilers position is this: "Sam, let's go one year. You'll get every opportunity to shine. Kick some ass and we'll talk some real term and money next summer."

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#96 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
July 03 2010, 11:49AM
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RossCreekNation wrote:

Granted, they were different ages for these seasons, but let's just take a look back at point totals for their first 3 NHL seasons & the 2nd contract Brandon Dubinsky got...

07/08: 82GP 14-26-40 79PIM
08/09: 82GP 13-28-41 112PIM
09/10: 69GP 20-24-44 54PIM
Career:239GP 47-78-125 247PIM (0.523pts/game

Sam Gagner...

07/08: 79GP 13-36-49 23PIM
08/09: 76GP 16-25-41 51PIM
09/10: 68GP 15-26-41 33PIM
Career:223GP 44-87-131 107PIM (0.587 pts/game)

Dubinsky, a late 2nd round pick in '04, had 2 extra years of Jr. hockey, followed by a year in the AHL before making the jump. He was an RFA coming off of his 2nd full NHL season, a season in which he scored 41 pts in 82 GP (0.5pts/game). At that point, his career totals would have been 170GP 27-54-81 193PIM (0.476 pts/game).

Dubinsky got a $3.7M, 2 year deal ($1.85M per)

Gagner, with little to no bargaining power outside the offersheet route, gets qualified at $0.9625M (if I'm right on the 10% raise, I've heard its only 5% for some). So, outside of an offersheet, the Oilers technically could offer him $1M & Sam has no real bargaining power. However, going this route would be 'playing chicken' with Sam's agent & other clubs. It would also leave a bad taste in Sam's mouth moving forward.

I think a pretty fair short-term offer would be $4.5M/2yrs... about amilli less than I'd ask for if I were Sam. Meet in the middle?

short term i think, while a tad low, it is probably a fair deal for both sides.

toss brassards numbers into that comparison. gagners agent has to be looking at that deal and brassards stats as a comparable as well (granted it is a 4 year deal)

4.5mil for 2 years.. 13mil for 4 years...

somewhere in that ballbark probably is fair...in my little world anyways

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#97 David S
July 03 2010, 12:59PM
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"I'm satisfied that Sam Gagner is going to be a more complete player than most undersized skill centermen. I think much of his value will be in terms of offense, but it is also true that he is tracking as a useful outscorer even this early on (Rel Corsi 10.9, second best to Edmonton's Babe Ruth, and his GF-GA was 37-43 on what was basically the 1899 Cleveland Spiders).

How good can he be? He's in a very nice neighborhood."

--Lowetide

http://lowetide.blogspot.com/2010/06/exploring-gagner-comps.html

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#98 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
July 03 2010, 01:04PM
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Gagner has shown glimpses of a point a game player but he's still a number of years away from getting to that level on a more consistant basis. He's shown enough to earn a 2 yr deal and like others have said, if he progresses toward that PAG player then he may be ready for a more secure 5 yr deal. I'm not so sure he can afford to have another 40'ish point season.

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#99 Nate Full of Hate
July 03 2010, 02:00PM
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Robin Brownlee wrote:

Consternation about offer sheets on Gagner, like contract offers at $4 million a year to lock him up now, is premature.

I see Sam signing for short money on a one-year term for the upcoming season.

If Gagner progresses to 50-55 points, as I suspect he will, then it makes sense -- for both sides -- to start talking about multiple years in the $3 million to $4 million range.

The rush to lock up a player long-term based on what he "might" do instead of what he's actually done is a product of the new CBA, and it's a risky business. Sam is not going to sulk and demand a trade if the Oilers position is this: "Sam, let's go one year. You'll get every opportunity to shine. Kick some ass and we'll talk some real term and money next summer."

Just like last year when Brule got to kick some @ss with Penner?

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#100 TigerUnderGlass
July 03 2010, 02:21PM
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@Robin Brownlee

The rush to lock up a player long-term based on what he "might" do instead of what he's actually done is a product of the new CBA, and it's a risky business.

It is also a necessary gamble if you ever intend to win unless you have veteran players deciding to give discounts to win cups. It isn't as though NHL GMs invented this idea when the CBA came out, it has long been around in every sport with a salary cap. As long as there is a cap you have no choice but to pay players for what you believe they will do rather than what they have done.

As far as I can tell there are 2 ways to get quality players at a bargain. 1) Draft them and win while they are young; and 2) Lock them up long term before they reach their potential.

Certainly there is risk involved, which is why scouting and player development are so important. You have to make smart bets, and the managers that win in a cap world are either the ones who win big at the draft or the ones who make the most smart bets when signing contracts.

If every player on a team are paid what they deserve and the team is still under the cap then they are not contending.

I should add here that I am not suggesting they suddenly sign Gagner to a 4 million/year deal, I am saying that if the Oilers believe that he is Going to improve significantly they need to sign him to a number that they believe will be a bargain 2 or 3 years from now.

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