Tom Renney in a Box (Part 1)
Lowetide
July 03 2010 09:50AM
In his first full season as coach of the New York Rangers, Tom Renney was the toast of the town. The NHL was coming out of the lockout--meaning two seasons worth of rookies--and the Rangers weren't picked to win squat. The Rangers topped 100 points, Jaromir Jagr set team records for goals and points and Renney was lauded as a major coaching talent. His reputation as a tactician and handler of difficult personalities gave NHL observers the impression he was going to be around awhile.
In the post below, I'll look at Renney's roster makeup and usage in NYC, and see if we can apply it to the current Oilers roster and make sense of things. I'd love your input, especially those who remember Renney's time in Manhattan.
- Does he like playing kids? Well he watched over a truckload of rookie seasons in New York. All kinds of players too, from quality 2-way defensemen to skilled wingers to enforcers. The Ranger procurement department was overflowing when he arrived, owing in part to Renney's efforts there (he started his Ranger career as director of player personnel).
- What kinds of prospects flourished under him? All kinds. I don't know how much credit to give the procurement department, but looking strictly at results the Rangers developed a lot of young players who displayed a wide range of skills. Talented 2-way players who reached the show during this time would include defensemen Mark Staal, Fedor Tyutin, Dan Girardi along with forwards Brandon Dubinsky and Ryan Callahan. Goalie Henrik Lundqvist also arrived fall 2005 and had a major impact on the franchise immediately.
- How much of this was blind luck? We'll never know. I can say that these Ranger prospects weren't lottery picks and the Oilers forward prospects have much better pedigree than the Ranger kids.
- Did he do weird stuff like MacTavish did with Jani Rita and Rob Schremp? First of all, MacTavish didn't do weird stuff with either of those players. They didn't make the grade. But if you're looking for a comparable, Petr Prucha faded after two quality seasons under Renney (30 and 22 goals). His career has not recovered since leaving New York, so there's no real evidence the coach was punishing a performing player.
- Anything else about the prospects? Renney found two enforcers right away. Colton Orr came over via waivers and Hollweg would have been known to Renney through the minor league system. And he played them enough to have an impact (in 06-07 Orr played 5:19 a night and was in 16 fights, Hollweg played 8:14 a night and was in 15 fights). He also had a plethora of agitator-types, led by Sean Avery who (along with Dubinsky) found a role on the Ranger team that fit his skill set.
- Which Oiler AHL prospects will benefit from Renney's presence? I believe Theo Peckham and Alex Plante will benefit the most. They are willing fighters and have some secondary skills (Plante's shot, Peckham's nasty streak) that should impress the coach. If Liam Reddox or Ryan O'Marra were a little more the agitator, they could be rewarded as well.
- How did he handle his top 6F in NYC? Played the hell out of them. In 05-06, Jagr (who loves Renney) played 22 minutes a night, including 6 on the PP. Other forwards who were above 4.5 minutes per night with the man advantage were Michael Nylander, Martin Straka and Martin Rucinsky. Looking at the TOI totals for that season it is very easy to see how he handled the forwards. Top line (Nylander-Straka-Jagr) 19 or more minutes; 2nd line (Rucchin-Rucinsky-Sykora) 15+ minutes; 3rd line (Moore-Prucha-Ward-Nieminen) 11 or more; 4th line (Betts-Hossa-Ortmeyer) about the same as the 3line. The PK men (Rucchin, Moore, Betts, Ortmeyer, Ward) were exactly the men who weren't on the PP. I suspect we'll have something similar here, a distinct skill 6 plus powerplay and a flat 6 for checking and the penalty-kill.
- Who will be in his top 6F? Dustin Penner, Ales Hemsky, Sam Gagner, Shawn Horcoff, Taylor Hall. Candidates for the 6th F slot would include Gilbert Brule, Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson, Jordan Eberle, Linus Omark, Andrew Cogliano. I'd guess that Brule gets the first spin, he's coming off a 17-goal season and is more proven than the others listed here.
- Who will be in his bottom 6F? Colin Fraser, Ryan Jones, Zack Stortini, that 3line C we're hearing about, plus any or all of Jacques, Strudwick (when he's playing F), MacIntyre. Liam Reddox, Ryan O'Marra, the dog's breakfast that is what is left of the bottom part of last season's roster. Colin McDonald, if they sign him.
- Will those who fail to break into the top 6 play on the bottom 6? I don't think so. Among the skilled men listed above, only Horcoff has the complete game to play a checking role. There aren't a lot of complete skill sets here, and those who have a wide range (like Gagner) are projected to be top 6 types for a decade or more. Not a lot of crossover here (which is again similar to the Rangers under Renney).
- How many of the gifted kids make the team out of camp? MPS and Eberle may be headed to Oklahoma City based on the roster setup as it now stands. The Oilers clogged up the wings when they retained Jacques and signed MacIntyre. If they do (as an example) run Eberle as 4line RW, that would require Zack Stortini to play big minutes against very tough opposition. The RW depth chart with Eberle (Hemsky, Brule, Stortini, Eberle) doesn't appear to be a reasonable option.
- Cogliano can play a checking role. No. No he can't. I like Cogliano, but he hasn't developed as a guy who can be counted on to be in the right spot in a defensive role (even on the wing). He plays the defensive game like Guy Lafleur (rover-ish) which is dandy if you're Guy Lalfeur. Cogliano is in a spot of bother with this hockey club; coming out of college I would have thought Cogs had the toolkit for a 2-way role but he never developed.
Next: Defense, goaltending and the galling powerplay.
Comments are closed for this article.
@joe strong
I concur.
If you're playing 3 rookies the Oilers will have to monitor their minutes and matchups..
It's too early to make concrete combo's until Gagner, Brule, Cogliano are signed
Hall 17mpg MPS 12-15 Eberle 12-15
Oh yeah, so has brule surpassed cogliano on the depth chart (smaller c's also playing wing)..?
Now to bring gagner into the equation,
Brule w 65gp, 17g, 20a, 37 & -8
Gagner w 68gp, 15g, 26a, 41 & -8
Coglinao w 82gp, 10g, 18a, 28 & -5
-considering cogliano played with slugs until salvaging it w penner / brule.. how close are these three?..
I heard that Horcoff bulked up too much last season, and lost some speed. This year he's adjusted his training regime to what he was doing after the lockout. I think Renny will see what Horcoff can do up there before dropping him down to the bottom 6.
2 projected lineup based on what they do with the kids....if all 3 make the team I'd say this is the lineup they ice(1)gagner/hemsky/hall(2)brule/eberle/penner(3)horcoff/jones/mps(4)Fraser / stortini/jacques...extras mcintyre & giroux or o'marra ....if only hall makes the team then the projected lineup looks like this(1)horcoff/hemsky/hall(2)gagner/brule/penner(3)Fraser/jones/jacques (4) o'marra/stortini/mcintyre...giroux & someone else as an extra...defence will look like this as long as they move souray...(1)Whitney/Gilbert(2)foster/smid(3)vandemeer/Peckham with strudwick as extra...one extra note...both strudwick & vandemeer are tweeners(play defence & forward) goalies are dubnyk/bulin...jdd is also in the mix.who knows maybe no one takes jdd on waivers & we can send him down or bulin is a bandaid so who knows....we have a pretty decent lineup either way if everyone stays healthy.down on the farm we got a omark & on defence plante,chorney,petry,motin,petiot...nice top 5 & add an arsene & things look good in okc....I'm excited!
@joe strong
Jacques/Fraser/jones could also be a very big hitting,shutdown line.you add stortini & mcintyre on the fourth line flanking o'marra(good faceoff guy) that's a pretty good 4th line.Fraser & o'marra are good on the draw & can be key defensive faceoff guys.Fraser is a lefthand shot while o'marra is a righthanded shot I believe.that means we got a guy on both sides of the defensive zone to take draws to gain puck possession & horcoff too.
Pat Quinn exposed Shawn Horcoff for what he is - a third line center that plays with very little edge.
Bringing in Renney doesn't change that. Hopefully Hemsky gets to plays with a center that can hit the ball past the infield this year.
Maybe Renney can convince Horcoff to play like Ryan Callahan because that's about the only way Horcoff will add any value to the club.
Do you think MPS is better than Hall/Penner? Do you think Cogliano is better than Horcoff/Gagner?
Do you think Eberle is better than Hemsky/Brule?
If your answer is no...that's why I have them on the 3rd line getting 12-15 minutes.
Traktor? Glad you came over here... I know you're kind of vilanized over at LT's place, but sheeite. You're kind of sane compared to this neighborhood.
Nate's lines didn't look bad actualy (IMO). Of all our skilled prospects, MPS is the one that can handle playing bottom six for the first thirty games. it would be silly to think that Lowe doesn't have any input. You have to admit that he would start him there if he was in charge.
I had the impression a duct taped shoulder had alot to do with "exposing Shawn Horcoff" last year.*
*Still totally amazed he didn't pull the chute on the season to heal/get it fixed.
When Renney was hired last year, the big talk about town that it was partly for the purposes of luring Jagr back to the NHL. Those rumours persisted for quite some time.
Lately, I haven't heard anything anywhere about Jagr. I sort of expected for that talk to fire up again once Renney got the promotion.
Not that I'm hoping for it, but has anyone heard if Jagr to Edmonton is still on the table?
Hall/Horcoff/Hemsky
Penner/Gagner/Brule
Paajarvi-Svensson/?Hecht(Souray)?/Comrie
Jones/Fraser/Stortini
Reddox/MacIntyre
How is Hecht on the dot? By my count, that leaves us with 1 line with league-average FO% (Horcoff), 2 with below-average (Gagner, Fraser), and 1 that relies on whomever they bring in as 3C. Comrie's acceptable in a shut-down role, and I think MPS can thrive, but Hecht is a big question mark.
@Traktor
You want Horc to play like Callahan? Only way to add value eh? I am fairly certain Horc's QualComp and Corsi are much better than Callahan's. Sure he probably had better QualTeam due to Hemmer but:
Horcoff PPG since lockout: 0.71 - including a "horrible" year last year. His horrible year is a Callahan good year.
Callahan PPG since lockout: 0.42
Oh please play like Callahan, we need you to play worse!
Jagr is a dead issue, he has a signed contract to play in the KHL next season....and that is where he belongs!
He was likely using Superstore-brand duct tape last year. Or perhaps 3M withdrew their support.
Seriously though, I remember Horcoff as an awesome PK and FO guy a few years ago -- we could sure use that over the next 13 years of his contract.
@Clay
It is not, he re-signed with Omsk.
Grow up. No one said anything about getting rid if him or placing him on waivers. He's simply not captain material. Anyone with a little knowledge of the Oiler players already knows this.
Arby:
The guys that have Horcoff on the 1st line are more concerned with what's best for Shawn Horcoff opposed to what's best for the team.
Its about giving 23 players roles that they can be successful in.
Any player on the club could skate between Hemsky and Penner and not bleed goals. The fact that Horcoff can come out on top playing with our best offensive players doesn't mean a whole lot imo.
Like MacT would say: everything is an equation of give and take.
Put Horcoff, Gagner, Brule or Cogliano between 27 and 83 and you aren't going to see a huge drop-off in production of that line.
But when we look at who has the greatest chance of being successful in a 3rd line checking role its clearly Horcoff with Gagner, Brule and Cogliano a couple miles down the road.
If Horcoff could play with the same type of edge as Ryan Kesler and chip in 35 points on the 3rd line while "facing the vaunt" it would be a lot more valuable than providing Penner and Hemsky a defensive security blanket that they don't need.
@Oil Kings 'n' Pretty Things
Not saying Hecht is the answer (unless the question is what other iffy cap player they could get for Souray), but here's what The Hockey News has to say about Jochen...
ASSETS: Has terrific hand/eye coordination. Displays excellent instincts at both ends of the ice. Can line up at all three forward positions. Is good on face-offs and when killing penalties.
FLAWS: Doesn't display enough offensive consistency. Is somewhat fragile and slender, so he could use more bulk to help with the rigors of the National Hockey League schedule.
CAREER POTENTIAL: Two-way forward.
@RossCreekNation
Didn't work out the first time as an Oiler, doubt they would be interested in him several years later.
Maybe this is a good way to look at our centers:
Waive all of Gagner Brule Fraser Cogliano Horcoff.
Promise a side deal that gives us deadwood with a cap hit of 5.5 million.
Who do you think will get claimed?
I say Horcoff goes third.
Hopefully the 2010-11 provides Tambi further clarity that Horcoff, Gagner, & co. Don't stack up vs Toews,Sharp Thornton,Pavelski Datsyuk,Zetterberg, Stastny,Duchene & Sedin,Kessler
hemmertime:
"You want Horc to play like Callahan? Only way to add value eh?"
I think its important to look at the other 17 skaters when assessing what the 18th guy brings to the table.
I think not having a single top 9 center that can play physical, or greasy is the clubs biggest weakness. IMO 3rd line checking centers that aren't physical or greasy are like prostitutes that don't spread 'em. Useless.
"I am fairly certain Horc's QualComp and Corsi are much better than Callahan's. Sure he probably had better QualTeam due to Hemmer but"
Qualcomp is terribly flawed. Is it tougher to play against Spezza or Fisher? Qualcomp says playing against guys like Madden and Pahlsson is easy minutes.
"Horcoff PPG since lockout: 0.71 - including a "horrible" year last year. His horrible year is a Callahan good year.
Callahan PPG since lockout: 0.42"
That doesn't really mean much. If you give a player that averages 6.7 points a game all the shots that Kobe takes he's probably going 15 points a game and lose every game like the Oilers do. If you put a lead off guy in the clean up position he's probably going to have better numbers than other lead off guys but that doesn't mean he is any better.
I'm projecting what is needed out of the 3rd line checking role and last year O'Callahan was much, much better at it.
@Crackenbury
From what you are saying he shouldn't wear an "A" either then?
And who cares if he is the first off after practice, or doesn't wacth a game while injured.
I agree he should't be captain, but the reason you gave have nothing to do with him not being Captain. Do you think when Moreau was injured that he wacthed all the games on tv? What about Smith? Weight? Like c'mon man they don't have to stay late after practice and wacth games on tv, when injured to be a Captain.
I couldn't agree more. In fact that's why i was asking LT earlier if he thought Gags was ready for power vs. power between 27 and 83. I think (and Renney might think) we would be better served to have 2 (although surely not three) solid lines geared to at least float against good opposition. All the while allowing a sucsessful (although sheltered) 'kid' line.
Arby: If the Oilers are willing to pair Penner with Gagner I think they can take on tougher minutes. I'd still like to see Horcoff with Hemsky on the 2nd skill like, though.
Traktor's point with regard to Horcoff assumes he's unable to contribute offensively. If the Oilers had two better options at center (and they don't) then we could discuss it.
Horcoff remains the most complete center available on the roster. Injury reduced his effectiveness last season, but he battled on as usual.
IF he comes back and is ineffective this season, then Traktor's point (placing another C with Hemsky) begins to have merit. But we need to see it before demoting Horcoff because (as I said above) he is the most complete center on the roster.
@Heavyd
I think the reason they put an "A" on Hemsky was to try and give him some more responsibility in the hopes it would help him mature and become more of a team player. Hemsky shows absolutely no progress in that area of the game. He is completely focused on himself and has shown no interest in becoming a team leader. I know that management has been disappointed in his lack of motivation. He should be better than he is. The captaincy belongs on someone that bleeds team colors and helps along the young guys. Does that sound anything like Hemsky?
I don't understand your ppt stat. Last year Horcoff had 4 ppg in 77 games. That is 0.052 pp goals per game.
What am I missing? It's me, not you, I am sure.
@Crackenbury
No I don't want Hemsky as Captain. The problem I have is when you were saying that he is last in practice and didn't wacth a game. All I am saying is Captains probably do the same things as Hemsky. That was my point thats all.
@Heavyd
Point taken. Also, Hemsky's poor practice habits may not be common knowledge. His lack of intensity drives coaches crazy.
Who's our agitator? JFJ? Stortini?
Tony T: Oilers don't really have one, although Stortini can be effective in that role. I wouldn't be surprised if the Oilers grabbed one (a Carcillo-type) at some point down the line. Renney's NYR team was very chippy.
Is there any sense at having a look at Robert Lang for 1.5 per?
He means points per game not power play goals
Fisher is a more complete center than Spezza yet he remains on the third line.
Reasoner is a more compete center than Gagner, Brule or Cogliano. Doesn't mean that's the guy you want at the plate with bases loaded and two outs.
The point that you're missing is Horcoff is better in a 3rd line role than Gags, Brule or Cogliano and the difference is much bigger than Gags vs Horc or Brule vs Horc is the 1-2 slot.
Brule - best FO% on club at over 52% Brule - 3rd most hits on club behind Stors on JF Brule - more EV goals than Spezza, Getzlaf, Malkin ect last year
Brule 2.6 PTS/60 Gagner 1.57 PTS/60 Horcoff 1.37 PTS/60
Brule -0.37 GFGA60 differential Gagner -0.41 GFGA60 differential Horcoff -1.59 GFGA60 differential
Brule 6th overall 22 years old, rising arrows Gagner 6th overall 20 years old, rising arrows Horcoff 4th round journeyman 30+ years old with duck tape shoulders
Which player do you see Horcoff being a better option than?
Welcome LT. Great addition to ON!
Agreed at this stage for certain . Take Savard , or a transition center like S.Koivu and dynamics change markedly . Unfortuneately both are not big . OMark really impressed recently and looks like he could upset one of incumbents with his feisty play and offensive ability around the net . He certainy has good chemistry with Svensson .
There seems to be quite a bit of talk of Landers by media outside Edmonton - all seemingly positive .
I hope and think , the Oilers will add one more first line center before season opens . Pretty tough to form lines at this juncture until we see if they do .
LT : Agreed
But are we somewhat discounting the fact that they might have hopes for Hall at center too. If we can agree that Horcs is the best two way center option, and we can agree Gagner should be superior offensively this season.... where does that leave Hall on the depth chart at center.
If they have Brule with Gags and Penner, could they survive with MPS-10-83?
If those two lines can take care of themselves, how about the fourth with Fraser, Storts, and experiment?
Would those three lines (again, home games we're talking about) be enough to have Hall in the middle of Cogs and our next contestant (almost seeing a Comrie type there)?
Traktor: I think Gagner should certainly grab the #1PP minutes this winter and believe he should also get the #1 LW (Penner).
However, I still want Horcoff playing the tougher minutes. Hemsky has proven to be an effective player in that role, so I'd keep them together.
But if they go out and sign a veteran RW who can play the tough minutes and outscore the opposition then we can talk about moving Hemsky to another line.
I wouldn't move him to Gagner's line, though.
Arby: If Hall can play center then everything changes. Hall would center a "soft minutes" line--maybe a kid line--with Gagner getting Penner and playing the 2nd toughest minutes.
Horcoff plays the tough minutes if healthy. I don't see an alternative.
I for one think Horc bounces back this year. He is a player that work his @ss of, and that's why he is where he is. Don't hate him for signing a big contract, don't hate him for doing eberything to help his team when he should have been in the sick bay.
Do you think putting Hall at center is a risk?
What if it doesn't work out, and then he gets frustrated?
Maybe they could take a look in training camp, but I hope they let him carry on where he left off in junior and then convert him down the road when he is ready.
Per Ryan Rishaug.
Oilers interested in Rob Niedymer.
RA: Renney had a great comment draft night. He said they'll make sure he's comfortable on the wing before trying him anywhere else. We're just blue-skying here, they'll do the right thing with "the franchise." :-)
Good for O'Marra to be in the loop again. I thought he was all but done not long ago.
I think Fraser is some what supposed to be.
All I can find for Youtube highlights on him are weak fights that he grapples his way through and falls down when he's done taking punches. Of which this is probably his best showing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00uDRmKGpEs
This is a good agitator moment for Fraser.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQn_g2VIMRI
Any updates on the assistant coaching jobs? I was wondering if Coffey may be entering the fold in some capacity.
"*Still totally amazed he didn't pull the chute on the season to heal/get it fixed"
No, he pulled the chute around the time he asked for and received insane money.
(I'm not quite sure why you made that into a footnote when the entirety of your post is one line)