Comparables

Lowetide
September 05 2010 10:04AM

I'm a big fan of comps. Comparables. Outer-markers. Players from NHL history whose careers are somewhat similar to a modern player who has written such a small script we need an indicator about their future. As a fan, I always look for the outer marker--just as Ranger fans did with Brad Park (in photo, with some other guy) early in his career. After all, why look for a comparable who ended up being a role player? Exactly.  Who are the best comparables for the current group of young Oilers? 
For the last several years, I've gone in search of comparables for Oiler prospects. Ales Hemsky's best comp was Rick Middleton, Rob Schremp's was Ron Chipperfield and on it went. I thought it might be a good idea to see if we can find some comparables from the NHL's past for the Oilers young guns. Some of these names will be familiar to Lowetide readers, but there are many new elements too.

Sam Gagner: We've identified two solid comparables: Doug Gilmour and Vincent Damphousse. A third (Doug Weight) is a hopeful comp but the two players came through different routes as prospects so we're still waiting for them to play in the same league at the same age. Here are three NHL players at age 20:

  • (.663) Gilmour 80gp, 25-28-53 +6 on a +1 team (team GF total: 293)
  • (.640) Damphousse 75gp, 12-36-48 +2 on a -36 team (team GF total: 259)
  • (.603) Gagner 68gp, 15-26-41 -8 on a -56 team  (team GF total: 214)

Gilmour and Damphousse played in an era where more goals were scored. In fact, it is quite a large gap. The NHL average for GF in Gagner's 20-year old season was 2.84; Damphousse 3.71; Gilmour 3.95. These comps aren't perfect (Gagner debuted at 18 years old so had more NHL experience by age 20 than the other two) but I think it is completely reasonable to argue Gagner is "in the range" with those two fine NHL players. Both Gilmour and Damphousse had "breakout" seasons (at 23 and 22 years old, respectively) so there might be a surge coming for Gagner.

Magnus Pääjärvi:  We're looking for a reasonable 18-year old comparable from the Swedish Elite League that might help us project this kid into the future. With the season now done the young man ranks "in the range" with some well known SEL teenagers over the years. 

  1. Markus Naslund 39gp, 22-18-40 (1.03)
  2. Tomas Sandstrom 36gp, 23-14-37 (1.03)
  3. Daniel Sedin 50gp, 21-21-42 (.840)
  4. Henrik Sedin 49gp, 12-22-34 (.694)
  5. Peter Forsberg 39gp, 9-18-27 (.692)
  6. Magnus Pääjärvi 49gp, 12-17-29 (.592)
  7. Nicklas Backstrom 46gp, 10-16-26 (.565)
  8. Anze Kopitar 47gp, 8-12-20 (.426)
     

Not everyone on the list is Swedish but they all played at 18 in the SEL. Backstrom and Kopitar rank below MPS here but it is important to remember that they (and Forsberg) were still in their development stages and had another gear. We don't know if our guy has overdrive.

I like Tomas Sandstrom as a comparable to our guy. Both have/had size and skill, both were well known as teenagers (Sandstrom had a couple of strong WJC's) and both counted foot speed and shooting ability as their calling cards as young men. Both were/are aggressive and both had Finnish connections despite playing in Sweden. As for the difference in their scoring totals and points-per-game (above), Sandstrom played on a team that scored 3.97 goals per game (143 in 36gp) and MPS plays on a team scoring 2.53 goals per game (137 in 54gp). Most of the modern players are playing in a deadball era, so the offensive difference between a 09-10 SEL player and a 82-83 SEL player (in terms of boxcars) has to be adjusted to make the comparison equal. 
 

Taylor Hall: One of the things that makes this player unique is that he was beating OHL opposition about the face and hands at 15. Seriously. In his three OHL seasons Hall has averaged 41 goals and 93 points. I'd kill to find out his OHL shot totals but organized hockey can't release that for fear of reefer madness in the streets. Here are the top skill picks from Ontario's top league over the last several seasons:

  • Patrick Kane (2007) 58gp, 62-83-145 (2.50)
  • Sam Gagner (2007) 53gp, 35-83-118 (2.23)
  • Taylor Hall (2010) 57gp, 40-66-106 (1.86)
  • John Tavares (2009) 56gp, 58-46-104 (1.86)
  • Steven Stamkos (2008) 61gp, 58-47-105 (1.72)
  • Bobby Ryan (2005) 62gp, 37-52-89 (1.44)
  • Matt Duchene (2009) 57gp, 31-48-79 (1.39)

I'm always a little wary of the London Knights because their TOI totals seem to skew their point totals (Rob Schremp), so the Kane-Gagner totals are a little suspect (although they are clearly quality players). Hall ranks in the middle of the group, so I thought it might be an idea to average their NHL totals at age 18. All but Ryan played in the year after their draft, and the averaged totals of the other five players (81gp, 21-34-55) would be outstanding. As for a specific comparable, I think his style most closely resembles Patrick Kane. We need to also remember that Kane (a November birthday) was much older as a rookie (about 9 months older than Gagner) and that Hall is also a November birthday. I think Kane is the comp, the outer marker. Now that doesn't mean I think he's Patrick Kane. It means he's "in the range" with Tavares and Stamkos, though. Excellent comparable. We'll see.

Jordan Eberle: The more unique the player, the more difficult it is to find a comparable. In looking for an Eberle comp, I looked for WHL players taken in the middle of the first round during the 2000's. The candidates don't match: some played a different style, others were less gifted offensively or derailed after their draft day and before they turned pro. So I moved up the draft list and added a couple or three from the top 10. Here's the list of similar player-types at age 17:

  • Zach Hamill (2007) 69gp, 32-61-93 (1.35)
  • Gilbert Brule (2005) 70gp, 39-48-87 (1.24)
  • Peter Mueller (2006) 52gp, 26-32-58 (1.12)
  • Jordan Eberle (2008) 70gp, 42-33-75 (1.07)
  • Kenndal McArdle (2005) 70gp, 37-37-74 (1.06)
  • Devin Setoguchi (2005) 69gp, 33-31-64 (.928)

Not all of these kids are exactly like Eberle, but I've excluded the Getzlafs, Ladds and Fehr's from the list. I think his best match from the group is Setoguchi. Here they are as 18-year olds:

  • Eberle 61gp, 35-39-74 (1.21)
  • Setoguchi 65gp, 36-47-83 (1.28)

Setoguchi is bigger (6.00, 195) and played with extreme skill once he reached the NHL (which perhaps skews our view of the comp) but it looks pretty solid at age 18. Setoguchi led his team in points (with a 20 point cushion) as the Blades won 41 games (3.22 GF per game). Eberle led his Pats in scoring (Weal just 4 points behind) and the team won 27 games (3.17 GF per game). I think it is a good match at 18. Here's 19:

  • Eberle 57gp, 50-56-106 (1.86)
  • Setoguchi 55gp, 36-29-65 (1.18)

Setoguchi once again led his team in points (by 9 this time) and the club won 33 games. Setoguchi's Prince George club averaged 3.07 GF per game. Eberle led his Pats in points (once again just 4 clear of Weal) and the Pats won 30 times. Their GF per game average was 3.42. Despite Eberle's edge offensively I still think they're a solid match. Setoguchi was an 8th overall pick, but I think Eberle would be much higher than 22nd overall in a re-draft of the 2008 group.

In the future, I'll do another comp-post (sorry) and if you want me to run some numbers on a specific prospect don't hesitate to post it. Also, if you have a better comp for Gagner, Hall,  Pääjärvi or Eberle please post the name and I'll add them to the list.

Finally, does this kind of thing hold interest for you? I enjoy looking at this kind of thing in order to track prospects and get an idea about their outer marker, but am not certain it is something a large group of people enjoy. Let me know.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
Avatar
#1 James
September 05 2010, 10:37AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

@Lowetide

Since ON is interested in knowing about what people are interested in, I very humbly submit that more posts like this, and fewer Microsoft Paint epics, would make the world a better place.

Seriously: If quality has a name, it must be Lowetide.

Avatar
#2 RossCreekNation
September 05 2010, 01:01PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

@Maggie the Monkey

You answered your own question... The real motivation seems to be to protect the quality of the CHL, as too many of its high end players would jump up the the A after turning 18 given the option.

The best resolution/compromise that I've been able to think of is to allow each AHL team one underage player per season. This would allow each franchise the option to give a developmental advantage to one protege per year. - That's not the worst idea I've ever heard (*cough*madjam*cough*)

Avatar
#3 Buckwheat
September 05 2010, 04:24PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

Firstly, I like your article. In fact, I like 99% of your articles; wish you could be more prolific although writing for two sites must surely present it's challenges. . .

Taylor Hall is going to be a stud in his years with the Oilers.

Jordan Eberle might well wear the "C," in a few years. And, in a few years I think he has a chance of filling the net on a very regular basis.

MPS is a mystery. Someone mentioned Radek D. as a comparable and I entertain the possibility. Time, as they say, will tell, but I think he has more Sandstrom in him and should the Oilers ever have a stud first line center, he could prove to be as prolific Kurri.

I keep forgetting Gagne is but 20 years of age. He has a shot at being as talented as Gilmour but he doesn't appear to have the fire. Maybe it comes later? Let's hope. I DO think at the very least he has the talent to be a Vinnie D though.

Avatar
#4 David S
September 05 2010, 04:31PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

@LT

I'm not a big fan of prospect analysis (or prospects at all), although I'm not much of a hockey nerd either. I will say that I enjoy your way of projecting player development and find it a reasonable alternative to the pure stats approach some would prefer to use.

@"Those guys"

Its Gagner. G.A.G.N.E.R.

Avatar
#5 spOIler
September 05 2010, 06:37PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

I like the Kane comp, except for two things: Hall's size and more physical play. I also think Hall is by far the better goal-scorer. He doesn't have Stamkos' shot, but it's closer to his than Kane's.

Hall is a pretty unique combination of power and finesse at high speed. He has more moves than Iginla or Messier, but likely not the power. He has more power than Kane, but maybe not the finesse. He might be as good a back-checker as any of them.

Surely there's a better name we can find? Sakic? Zetterberg? Other guys who can play with power, play with finesse, and have good shots, can play W or C? Guys who have the ability to be either play-maker or sniper? Guys who get back when the game is on the line?

I guess it's all about what you use the comparables for. To me, with comps, style is very important. LT, I think you create your comps to predict possible future success and track careers and thus rely heavily on scoring at the same age, source league (etc), but I'm not entirely sure of the point since everyone's going to take different paths through the league anyway. Why not find the archetype off the same tree and see how they track from that?

For eg, I've never liked the Hemsky-Middleton comp (as you likely remember) because they're not the same kind of player. Both have speed down the wing and Middleton had some shiftiness, but to me that's about where it ends. Middleton was more of a goal-scorer than a play-maker.

Extend this to Setoguchi: he seems to score more with his speed than his positioning, and I'd say the exact opposite is true for Eberle. Eberle is also a better passer. Can we not say Whitney is a possible comp?

Oh, and please never stop posting these comp articles, LT. I love the brain processes they provoke, and they're always fun to read, as is all your stuff.

Avatar
#6 Oilertown
September 05 2010, 11:00PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

Great read lowetide I have been reading ON since the Heatley debacle. And started reading your site shortly after. I have always enjoyed your comp articles and hearing that you have more coming here is good to hear. Keep up the great work ON is lucky to have you on their crew now

Avatar
#7 Chris.
September 06 2010, 12:38PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

Oh Oh...

Since we're just using crystal balls anyway: I did a little more research.

Sam Gagner was born Aug 10, 1989. That makes him a snake in the Chinese Zodiac calander (who are we to dispute the ancient wisdom of the Chinese?) Kane who was in Sam's draft class developed quickly but with a November 1988 birth date he is a Dragon... Sam, like Turris, Voraceck, and Esposito (as part of a weaker Snake ridden draft class) is destined to develop at a slower pace. Snakes are more cerebral, and are never in much of a hurry.

Looking back, the previous batch of Snakes drafted in 1995 are a pretty sorry lot led by Bryan Berard at first overall. (Shane Doan, like Kane before him, is actually a Dragon... stuck amid a poor draft class of mostly Snakes) The best Snake forward from this previous batch is Jarome Iginla... and he didn't have much of an offensive surge till his fifth or sixth full NHL season... and was often famous for his slow starts. I guess we will just have to be patient with young Sammy the Snake for another season or two... The Chinese are never wrong...

Avatar
#8 Taco
September 05 2010, 10:18AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

FIST

Avatar
#9 Senator Theo
September 05 2010, 10:19AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Thanks for putting this together - I like reading this kind of analysis.

Avatar
#10 Crackenbury
September 05 2010, 10:28AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

You should get a fairly good idea of how many people enjoy this kind of column by the number of comments that end up being posted.

I appreciate the tremendous effort put into your analysis, but statistical comparison analysis between players of different eras and/or leagues holds no interest for me. Sorry, but you asked.

Avatar
#12 James
September 05 2010, 10:33AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Now THIS is the kind of post that deserved to be read -- and read closely.

Well done.

Avatar
#13 mark
September 05 2010, 10:34AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I thoroughly enjoy posts like this, keep it up!

Avatar
#14 Crackenbury
September 05 2010, 10:40AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Lowetide

No problem. I normally wouldn't have made any type of comment on a column that didn't hold interest for me, but I read your other blog as well and consider your effort to be that of a professional and your desire for all feedback was genuine.

Avatar
#15 Archaeologuy
September 05 2010, 10:56AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Rookie Camp hasnt started, the draft is long past, the Free Agent frenzy is over, Khabibulin wont meet Justice for months, No news on the Souray front, and Lowetide just pumped out a thought provoking and potentially controversial article on OilersNation.

Yeah, I like the post.

The fact that this article might have a flock of people up in arms saying that the conclusions or methods are faulty is a good thing. It means that people are reading, thinking about the Oilers, and sharing their thoughts.

More please.

Avatar
#16 Cambosmash
September 05 2010, 11:04AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I know be didn't light up junior like Hall, but would Rick Nash be a decent comparable? I've also thought Derek Roy would be good for Eberle. I love these articles.

Avatar
#17 Racki
September 05 2010, 11:07AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

This is good stuff (yes, count me as interested). I particularly liked the Hall and MPS (I'm still calling him that) comparisons. Both are quite exciting reads, and I hope they turn out as well as the comparables suggest they could.

What are your thoughts LT on Hall going back to Junior? I can say that I'm pretty confident that the Oilers won't do it, but would you? Can he benefit from another year there?

I personally hate seeing players rushed, but it's hard to say that another year would help much (although it's hard to say it would hinder him too). On the plus side too (and correct me if I'm wrong), he is eligible to play in OKC starting in the 2011-12 season... so if he struggles in the NHL this year, he could always go down to develop some more.

I'm interested to hear what other thoughts are out there on him and whether the Oilers SHOULD keep him up. I'll be taking notes, to find out who flip flops on it, like all the "Gagner should have played another year in Junior guys" who came out of nowhere (kidding!).

Avatar
#18 Milli
September 05 2010, 11:15AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

wow. LT, I'd love for our guys to end up with those comps!

Avatar
#19 RossCreekNation
September 05 2010, 11:19AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I don't always like all the stats-based articles, but I always seem to like ALL Lowetide articles... makes me wish you started here long ago (or that I read your other site more regularly, lol).

Some stats guys have a way of making their reads come off as condescending towards others that may not agree... Lowetide you are NOT one of those guys. Keep pumping out the quality (and quantity) you've been posting... ON is better because of it (and ON was basically my favorite site before you came).

Avatar
#20 Skidrow Gutterbum
September 05 2010, 11:21AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Another great read LT-Thankyou!!

@Racki

IMO, I dont think Hall would benefit from another year in Junior, OKC-yes (if early struggles become apparent). I think it would be a confidence blow for a #1 overall pick to be returned to Junior, as well as a demoralizer for the fans after the last 3 years of misery.

Avatar
#21 RossCreekNation
September 05 2010, 11:21AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Racki

No way Hall see's another OHL game or an AHL game ever... JMO. Eberle, on the other hand, I could see starting in the A... other good players have began their pro careers there too. Can't wait to see Pääjärvi in action... just wish it were in red & yellow silks instead ;-)

Avatar
#22 Baai
September 05 2010, 11:29AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Super interested.

I like your equivalencies posts, and personally need comparables to get a sense of what we're looking at year-to-year. Inevitably when you're having a beer beside someone at the pub who rattles on about trading "hate target of the week", numbers are the only way to safely navigate the argument.

The numbers you've used in other posts to show NHLE are from formulas you've come up with or collaborate with Desgardins, is that right?

How complex would it be to create a formula for era equivalancies? Is there some way to factor in shot totals, save percentages, league average of goals scored and so on to create an era variable?

I imagine the answer is "super fekking complex" but it's gotta be possible.

Avatar
#23 Wanye
September 05 2010, 11:29AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

This is a wicked article.

Avatar
#24 Racki
September 05 2010, 11:33AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Skidrow: Interesting points, and I do agree too, I want to see him up in the NHL. I'm happy too that if things bomb with him (which I don't think they will, at least by his fault), at least he can go down to the A a bit (which shouldn't be demoralizing, given the names that have spend time there).

Rosscreek: I do agree on Eberle too, although not having seen him up in the NHL just yet, who knows. But I've kind of thought that he would have the toughest time adjusting early on (although I think long term he'll be great for the Oil). I really have no factual basis for this belief, just basing it mostly on his size ;) Think Marc Savard, perhaps.

Avatar
#25 Archaeologuy
September 05 2010, 11:33AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@RossCreekNation

I'm not convinced any of them spend time in the A this year.

MPS has played against men for several seasons now, Hall has nothing to prove in the OHL, and Eberle is the oldest and is coming off a year that saw him star in the WHL, WJHC, AHL, and WHC. At each level Eberle excelled, there isnt any reason at this point to think he NEEDS to play more AHL games.

Avatar
#26 Archaeologuy
September 05 2010, 11:36AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Racki

Hall cant play in the AHL until he's 20. The only way he plays there is if the OHL season is over.

Avatar
#27 Maggie the Monkey
September 05 2010, 11:38AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@RossCreekNation

Although I've found most of your comments insightful and well thought out on this site, your change of avatar suddenly brings a whole new level of dignity to your postings.

Man that "Turtle" character bugs me. The show didn't inspire me much anyway, but he drove me away from it entirely.

Avatar
#29 RossCreekNation
September 05 2010, 11:44AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Archaeologuy

I'm not saying Eberle WILL play in the A, just that if I had to guess which 1 of the 3 MIGHT be most likely to spend some time there, I'd say Eberle... which is also to say that I don't believe either of Taylor Swift or .357 Magnum start anywhere other than Edmonton.

Avatar
#30 bigrroberto
September 05 2010, 11:47AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

For me I really enjoyed the read!

It gives us a good idea of what to expect, or not to expect.

I'd really enjoy more like this.

Avatar
#31 Wanyes bastard child
September 05 2010, 11:48AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

While I agree with everyone on this being a most excellent article there is one thing missing LT...

The GIRLS!!!!

Avatar
#32 Skidrow Gutterbum
September 05 2010, 11:49AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Archaeologuy wrote:

I'm not convinced any of them spend time in the A this year.

MPS has played against men for several seasons now, Hall has nothing to prove in the OHL, and Eberle is the oldest and is coming off a year that saw him star in the WHL, WJHC, AHL, and WHC. At each level Eberle excelled, there isnt any reason at this point to think he NEEDS to play more AHL games.

I too believe all 3 will make the big club out of TC and remain here all season, though(with Hall as the likely exception) it's unlikely all 3 will settle in top 6F spots this year, that we expect them to from a long term perspective, though that would be a nice bonus.

Avatar
#33 RossCreekNation
September 05 2010, 11:49AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Maggie the Monkey

Really? I still love that show, though. I figured the new avatar would (and probably still will) bug more people than Turtle. I also loved The Sopranos, if that gives me any cred... and the new HBO show Boardwalk Empire looks to be good, so I have that going for me... lol.

Thanks, btw.

Avatar
#34 Archaeologuy
September 05 2010, 11:55AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@RossCreekNation

To me it's a bit of a toss up. Hall cant play there even if the team wanted him to, so it's between Omark, MPS, and Eberle. I think Omark is a lock for the AHL. A lock.

Between MPS and Eberle, I dont know who is more likely to spend time there. Eberle is smaller, but a year older and has more offensive pedigree. MPS is bigger but has no experience playing the North American game, his pedigree is good too but he might need to adjust.

I still think the big 3 all play the season in the NHL this year, but if I were to guess it would be that if he struggles the Oilers would send MPS down to the AHL to get 1st line minutes on North American ice.

Avatar
#35 ubermiguel
September 05 2010, 11:56AM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Great article. Even these very realistic comparables are pretty exciting. Gagner as the next Gilmour would be pretty sweet.

Avatar
#36 Racki
September 05 2010, 12:02PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Archaeologuy wrote:

Hall cant play in the AHL until he's 20. The only way he plays there is if the OHL season is over.

I never said he could play in the AHL this year... I said for the 2011-12 season (which he'll be 20 by December 31st for). I was saying that it's a fall back plan if a season in the NHL this year doesn't pan out. That part probably isn't evident unless you read both my posts in the thread though ;)

Avatar
#37 Muji 狗
September 05 2010, 12:08PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I like these posts as long as they are rational and don't fall into the "OMG HE'S THE NEXT FORSBERG"-type material we see on HFBoards.

It would be interesting if you could review your posts (yearly?) to see how the comparables are tracking.

Avatar
#38 Starving Student
September 05 2010, 12:36PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Great posting, how about a comparable for Omark? Not necessarily for just SEL players, but late European bloomers in general. Here's hoping we don't have another Brunnström. Another player of interest would be Olivier Roy and how he compares to other past WJHC goalies who have made it to the show or to goalies of past years who had similar numbers. Perhaps comparables for Chris Vande Velde to other power forwards out of the collegiate stream.

Avatar
#39 Maggie the Monkey
September 05 2010, 12:38PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@RossCreekNation

I'm really much more of a filmophile that a tv guy, although "The Wire" and "Mad Men" both have me reconsidering that.

You've inspired me to change my own avatar, by the way, from some random dog to my own. Man I miss that dog - she was the best girlfriend I've had.

Alright, enough thread-jacking...

Avatar
#40 Skidrow Gutterbum
September 05 2010, 12:39PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I concede that the chances of Hall being returned to Junior are slim to none for so many reasons-really it's a moot point to even debate that possibility, but my question is- has that ever happened? A #1 overall Forward being returned to junior/college after being drafted? (I realize this has happened with a Defenseman-Erik Johnson recently)

Avatar
#41 David S
September 05 2010, 12:45PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Archaeologuy wrote:

To me it's a bit of a toss up. Hall cant play there even if the team wanted him to, so it's between Omark, MPS, and Eberle. I think Omark is a lock for the AHL. A lock.

Between MPS and Eberle, I dont know who is more likely to spend time there. Eberle is smaller, but a year older and has more offensive pedigree. MPS is bigger but has no experience playing the North American game, his pedigree is good too but he might need to adjust.

I still think the big 3 all play the season in the NHL this year, but if I were to guess it would be that if he struggles the Oilers would send MPS down to the AHL to get 1st line minutes on North American ice.

The Oilers have been flogging the crap out of Hall, MPS and Eberle on their website all summer. Not sure if I agree with it, but my guess is all three will play in the NHL this year.

Avatar
#42 jadeddog
September 05 2010, 12:48PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Muji 狗

LT does track his comps from year to year.... he's been using the damphousse and gilmour comps for gagner pretty much since he was drafted

LT - you *know* that i love these types of posts.... so keep them coming.... history has a way of repeating itself, and even though people will nit-pick comparables, they give you a good "range of expectations" for a given player

Avatar
#43 Cool Beans
September 05 2010, 12:52PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

The way I read this article is:

Gagner is going to be better than Gilmour. Paaravi is going to be better than Forsberg. Hall is going to score at a pace better than Stamkos. Eberle is going to be more complete than Setagouchi. Brule will probably get 80 points soon. And Omark might be the next Sealnne. All of this by 2011. Is that correct or did I miss the jist of this exercise?

Avatar
#44 Maggie the Monkey
September 05 2010, 12:56PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

It's been bothering me for many years that 18-year-olds are eligible to play in the NHL but not the AHL. The argument that the AHL is too rough of a league for 18-year-olds is hogwash, in my opinion, because it seems highly improbably that it is a more physical league than the big league. The real motivation seems to be to protect the quality (and profitability) of the CHL, as too many of its high end players would jump up the the A after turning 18 given the option. One further tell about this motivation is that European born players are allowed to play in the AHL at the age of 18: where's the consistency in that if part of the purpose is to protect the players?

Despite my irritation at this rule, I see some validity to it, and think that there are only a handful of players below the age of 20 who could handle the A. The best resolution/compromise that I've been able to think of is to allow each AHL team one underage player per season. This would allow each franchise the option to give a developmental advantage to one protege per year.

Would any of the NHL, NHLPA, AHL, or CHL have any interest in making this happen, though? I think all of them except the CHL might.

Not incidentally, I think that if it were possible, a season in the AHL would be the best alternative for Hall. He clearly has nothing further to gain from playing in the OHL, yet a jump right to the big show might be too much for him and could stunt his development.

Avatar
#45 RossCreekNation
September 05 2010, 12:58PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Skidrow Gutterbum

Quick research show's at least 3 examples in the past 25 years:

Chris Phillips - 1st overall, 1996... returned for an extra year of Jr.

Ed Jovanovski - 1st overall, 1994... returned for an extra year of Jr.

Mike Modano - 1st overall, 1988... returned for an extra year of JR.

EDIT: just realized you asked specifically about forwards... only 1 of which I included ;-)

Avatar
#46 a lg dubl dubl
September 05 2010, 01:05PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I was hoping MPS, just because he's never spent anytime playing in the smaller rinks would have spent at least 30 or so games down in the AHL getting acustom to the north american style. Now that the likes of Mike Comrie arent coming back i highly doubt he'll go there to start the season if at all despite any problems he might have.

Eberle IMO showed he's so close to being ready to play in the NHL in the worlds this last spring i highly doubt he'll see the ice with the barons.

Taylor Hall, i just hope he dosnt "suck the hind banana" this year, but i could see a Eberle/Hall Calder Trophy that would be freakin sweet!!!

Avatar
#47 a lg dubl dubl
September 05 2010, 01:10PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I forgot to add in on Hall that it wouldnt hurt my feelings none if he spent another year in junior if the oilers figured it'd be for the best long term, even if he put up 200 points back in winsor

Avatar
#48 Skidrow Gutterbum
September 05 2010, 01:15PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
RossCreekNation wrote:

Quick research show's at least 3 examples in the past 25 years:

Chris Phillips - 1st overall, 1996... returned for an extra year of Jr.

Ed Jovanovski - 1st overall, 1994... returned for an extra year of Jr.

Mike Modano - 1st overall, 1988... returned for an extra year of JR.

EDIT: just realized you asked specifically about forwards... only 1 of which I included ;-)

Thanks RossCreek. So I guess Modano would be the only example of this occuring from a forward perspective. Would be very unlikely for the Oilers to follow that route even if Hall were to struggle in TC.

Avatar
#49 Maggie the Monkey
September 05 2010, 01:19PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@RossCreekNation

Has Madjam or others made this suggestion before?

Avatar
#50 a lg dubl dubl
September 05 2010, 01:26PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

wonder if the new song when the oilers come on to the ice will be "youth gone wild" by skid row?

Comments are closed for this article.