Setting Free the Bears

Lowetide
January 11 2011 06:41PM

With the Oilers reaching the official halfway point of their season, it's time to discuess a few home truths. The Oilers aren't going to make the playoffs, the trade deadline market suggests "UFA" is much easier to move than "RFA" and big ticket items are more likely to move in the warmer months. What does this mean to the Oilers? Read on.
 

Since New Year's Day we've seen two transactions of note:

  1. Dallas aquired forward Jamie Langenbrunner (UFA) from the New Jersey Devils in exchange for a conditional third-round pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft.
  2. NY Rangers qcquired forward Wojtek Wolski from the Phoenix Coyotes in exchange for defenseman Michal Rozsival.Wolski's cap hit is $3.8M, Rozsival $5M. Both players were not playing to the level of their cap hit at the time of the transaction.

I think these two deals perfectly reflect the current market. Teams are willing to pick up veterans in the final year of their contracts (meaning free agency this summer) and are also willing to trade contracts that match somewhat or offer cap relief/cash relief (as the PHX/NYR deal reflects).

How does that impact the Oilers? I think the Oilers will have a hard time dealing off Penner or Hemsky at the deadline. Although teams certainly have nice things to offer, it makes little sense for them to give up roster players of value. In Los Angeles, we can see that Penner makes sense (Hemsky too) for the Kings, but part of the return might be someone like Wayne Simmonds. Why would LA do that when he's clearly part of the current solution? They are more likely to offer someone like Ponikarovsky and a high end prospect. Does that benefit Edmonton? I'd bet they could get a better fit in the summer.

In most years, playoff teams have enough of a cushion to risk 2 points here or there as the new hires adjust. For a team like the Kings 10-11, I don't think there's any margin for error. Unless the Oilers are willing to do a "Smyth for 5 assets" type deal I don't think a blockbuster gets done by Edmonton at the deadline. Which is good. Penner and Hemsky are signed through next season, and I'm hopeful Steve Tambellini can find a way to keep both of them as well as all those wonderful kids.

So, what will the Oilers do at the deadline? Offload unrestricted free agents and then take over the world! Sorry. Here are the Oilers 10-11 pending UFA's:

  1. Ryan Jones: Winger with some size and an outside shot at 20 goals this season. Jones is 26 years old and has shown flashes of offensive ability in the past. One hopes the Oilers attempt to sign him before the deadline, but if they don't the market should be legit for the versatile winger. Nashville traded for him once, they may do it again.
  2. Jim Vandermeer: Make no mistake, the trade deadline is a lot about adding blue. Remember the Sabres 2006 spring? When they finished just shy of playing for the Stanley because they ran out of defensemen? NHL General Managers sleep better deadline night after they add a player like Vandermeer. I know he's expensive for what he does but this is an expiring contract. Lots of people felt Steve Staios had no value a year ago, but Steve Tambellini got a solid pick for him.
  3. Steve MacIntyre: Has almost no post-season value. These guys don't play much when the second season begins.
  4. Jason Strudwick: Veteran nearing the end of the line. Little value, suspect no one will have interest.

Anyone else? I don't think so. NHL teams don't want to have any extra cap headaches than the ones they already have; having said that, here are a few players who might get moved to a team that sees them as part of the future:

  1. Ladislav Smid: I think the Oilers might have enough concern about his long term health. If someone comes calling with a legit prospect/pick Smid might be in a new town come March.
  2. Zack Stortini: The coach doesn't see him as being terribly valuable. Another NHL coach might see a need for a physical 4liner who can actually play.
  3. Kurtis Foster: He's signed for another year at 1.8M but a team looking for a PP solution that doesn't break the bank might bite. A team in the southeast that "saw him good" a year ago may feel Foster can help them.
  4. Gilbert Brule: Seems to have slipped down a notch since a strong start. Brule has a few things that other coaching staffs will have noticed (he's a hitter and he can shoot the puck) and that might be enough for them to offer a solid return.
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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#1 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
January 11 2011, 10:53PM
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On a team starving for true bottom 6'ers, I think we need to add a second Jones, not subtract the one we have.

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#2 Dave
January 11 2011, 06:48PM
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I really like Ryan Jones .. plays intelligently and has more upside than some others on the team.

Seems like Dallas rink is half empty !

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#3 Team Hall
January 11 2011, 08:21PM
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Seems kind of eery we've heard no Jones signing talk. We should give him the contract we should have given GlenX. Solid third/fourth line winger.

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#4 David S
January 11 2011, 09:57PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

He had a great game. He's having a career year and he's a pending UFA. He has to be one of the Oilers most moveable assets right now. He's peaking at the right time. What can he get the Oilers in a straight up trade or when he's paired with a guy like Penner?

Is he really going to stick around if a winner offers him cash in July based on this career year? Let someone else give him a payday and in return maybe the Oil can get more picks and prospects.

So here we find a decent bottom sixer, which is our acknowledged Achilles heel and we should deal him for yet more "picks and prospects"?

OK. I'll bite. At what point should we actually start our rebuild? Because it seems to me we're rebuilding right now and a guy like Jones might be a good puzzle piece. Not everybody on our team is going to be 18 1/2 with great potential. At some point we're going to have to play some games and we're going to need guys like Glencross, Brodziak, Reasoner, Stoll, Torres Jones.

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#5 John Chambers
January 11 2011, 10:33PM
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@gongshow

Dammit Gongshow,

Don't you realize that other teams' GM's and pro scouts read our comments to gain insight into whether they should make legitimate offers for our fringe players?

We were all trying to pump Jones to try and acquire a 3rd rounder and your loose lips have just reduced his value to no better than a 5th. You're like the Steve Bartman of the Copper and Blue.

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#6 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
January 11 2011, 10:52PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

He had a great game. He's having a career year and he's a pending UFA. He has to be one of the Oilers most moveable assets right now. He's peaking at the right time. What can he get the Oilers in a straight up trade or when he's paired with a guy like Penner?

Is he really going to stick around if a winner offers him cash in July based on this career year? Let someone else give him a payday and in return maybe the Oil can get more picks and prospects.

Re career year: He's scored at roughly a 15 goal pace twice before in the NHL.

I think this guy is for real.

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#7 Wax Man Riley
January 12 2011, 12:18AM
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I would do my best to re-sign Jones. 2 years. $1-$1.5 per. Comments abound all year about the lack of depth in the bottom 6 and we now want to trade away more bottom 6? Didn't the lesson get learned with (as David S said above) Glencross, Stoll, Brodziak, Reasoner etc.....?

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#8 Archaeologuy
January 11 2011, 07:13PM
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If I were the Oiler GM then every other team in the league would be hearing about Jones. I would be selling hard my Fast, Hard working, Penalty Killing, Energy adding, Reasonably priced, Versatile 3rd liner with Scoring pop. If Tambellini can turn Jones around for a decent pick a la Grebeshkov then that would be a great move. I like him as a 4th liner that can move up or down the lineup for the Oil, but if he can net you something decent then I'd pull the trigger in a heartbeat.

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#9 @NateInVegas
January 11 2011, 07:31PM
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Jack Johnson re-signing makes me believe Wayne Simmonds will stay in L.A.

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#10 Eddie Shore
January 11 2011, 08:18PM
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I don't see the point of trading Ryan Jones. Our bottom six is very suspect and here we have a player that is effective in that role and by all accounts has earned a contract offer and we want to trade him away for what, a conditional or late round pick? We do this, then we just start the search for our bottom six all over again.

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#11 SumOil
January 11 2011, 08:29PM
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I too wish that we lock up Penner and Hemsky on reasonable contracts. But if there was a choice to be made between the two, I lean towards Penner

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#13 David S
January 11 2011, 09:26PM
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I simply cannot understand why Stortini has such low regard by this coaching staff. Of all our 4th line players, he's by far the most competent. SMac, Fraser and JFK play above him? Really?

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#14 Archaeologuy
January 11 2011, 09:37PM
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Wanyes bastard child wrote:

~yeah we should totally trade Jones~

He had a great game. He's having a career year and he's a pending UFA. He has to be one of the Oilers most moveable assets right now. He's peaking at the right time. What can he get the Oilers in a straight up trade or when he's paired with a guy like Penner?

Is he really going to stick around if a winner offers him cash in July based on this career year? Let someone else give him a payday and in return maybe the Oil can get more picks and prospects.

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#15 David S
January 11 2011, 10:14PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

He could be a decent piece. He could also walk for nothing at the end of this season. His value is high and getting higher. If this is just year 2 of the re-build then shouldnt we still be trying to add to the stable of youth?

We have TONS of youth, and more coming at the draft. As it is, we're almost at the point where we're going to have to start pairing down the guys we have. You make Jones a fair offer and see how it goes. If we lose him, we lose a few middling picks. No big deal.

Besides, it seems to me he likes playing here, as witnessed by his season so far. At the worst we might end up overpaying him what, .5M? We're under $13 Million this year and the cap will probably go up. At some point you have to start building your team or else we'll be in "picks and prospects" hell indefinitely.

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#16 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
January 12 2011, 10:36AM
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Re all the "trade Jones" people.

What do you actually think we'll get for the guy? 4th rounder? Maybe 3rd? I think Corsi is a useful stat, but we better balance that off with the odds of turning that 3rd/4th rounder into a quality player.

I'll tell you right now those odds are disapointly low.

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#17 Wax Man Riley
January 12 2011, 03:42PM
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@rindog

Nope, Hemsky is not a 1st line player. All-star players just aren't first line players

EDIT: "~"

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#18 SumOil
January 11 2011, 08:27PM
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Maybe we should see if TBL would take Foster back. They signed MAB. They really want a guy who can be effective from the point

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#19 Wanyes bastard child
January 11 2011, 08:39PM
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@Archaeologuy

~yeah we should totally trade Jones~

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#20 Henry
January 11 2011, 08:39PM
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LT - Your points are good, but with all the parity in the league and the large number of teams with a legitimate playoff shot could there not be a lot of inflation at the deadline for the few seller to take advantage?

They shouldn't trade Penner or Hemsky unless something certainly great is coming back. Like Jordan Staal. They should only sell the best players very, very high when not cap constrained. The thought of a return one year of Joffrey Lupul/Jochen Hecht/Bernie Nicholls/Jimmy Carson/whoever (Wayne Simmonds) makes me regurge the Wild Turkey.

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#21 Henry
January 11 2011, 08:50PM
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You are right, you don't get a Staal (though Pittsburgh is ridiculously unbalanced with their centre strength). Makes them too easy to defend in the playoffs.

My point (if I have one) is that the Oilers need a couple studs (Hemsky and Penner) up front in their prime years when the team is ready to compete more than they need another mid-first round pick who may turn into Riley Nash.

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#22 robinrussia
January 11 2011, 09:18PM
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Given our bottom 6 are quite poor. He's the one bright spot. I'd certainly be building him into the 3rd line for 2 years at under 1 mill per year.

If he hits 20 goals (or thinks he will).....he may want upwards of 1.1-1.3 million and try to test free agency if the Oil don't offer up. Do you want him for 2 years at that price? If he hits 15 goals before trade deadline, I'd say OK, as his cap won't impact us over 2 years.

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#23 John Chambers
January 11 2011, 09:31PM
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@Lowetide

LT - I think the trade value for Penner and Hemsky will be determined by the demand (and desperation) of some teams to augment their scoring potential prior to deadline day. A few positive things that may impact their trade value:

1) there are many teams still in the running for the playoffs. This means more 'buyers' than 'sellers'

2) there is a shortage of quality scoring wingers. Penner and Hemsky are probably the top available assets, even if Florida, Minnesota, Buffalo, and Ottawa decide they're not in the running.

Respectfully, I also disagree that the extra year on both of their contracts is a disadvantate. I believe it actually adds value to the team trading for them. The reasons: At approx $4M, they are relatively affordable and for 55-70 point producers, can be considered value contracts. The extra year also gives the Oilers trading partner a longer window to evaluate them as a 'fit' in their organization and elect to re-sign them, or trade them for value during the offseason or during the '11-'12 season.

Lastly I agree with your point that neither of these players will be moved for a quality roster players (such as J. Staal), but are more likely to be shopped for a high-quality prospect.

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#24 John Chambers
January 11 2011, 09:45PM
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@Archaeologuy

Arch, what do you think Jones is worth on his own?

My guess is a 3rd rounder. For that return it might be worth trying to re-sign him instead ... my guess is that he could be locked up for 2 years at $1.5M per.

What would you be seeking as a return if you were ST trying to deal him?

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#25 Archaeologuy
January 11 2011, 09:54PM
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@John Chambers

No idea what he's worth. That's why I'd be letting the League know that he's available. I'd try to make as big of a market for the guy as I could.

You're probably right that now he'd be a 3rd rounder on his own. I think he has more value to add if he's the second player in a deal though.

Just the way I'd play it.

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#26 Butters
January 11 2011, 10:00PM
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Trading Jones depends very much upon whether or not the Oilers view the year he is having as an anamoly. If they believe he can get close to 20 goals again next year, they will/should keep him.

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#27 Archaeologuy
January 11 2011, 10:05PM
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@David S

He could be a decent piece. He could also walk for nothing at the end of this season. His value is high and getting higher. If this is just year 2 of the re-build then shouldnt we still be trying to add to the stable of youth?

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#28 John Chambers
January 11 2011, 10:08PM
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@David S

David, you couldn't be more right. Seeing as how you can't get much for a player like Jones in a trade, why bother shopping him and why not re-up him for an affordable price at a reasonable length (2-3 years)?

That said, I think your list is interesting because you highlight a rolodex of different players would fill that roll interchangeably with one another. If players like Asham and Torres got signed in August for $1M or less, are they really key parts of a re-build or just guys you can acquire to fill a short-term need.

Makes you ponder the logic of Ethan Moreau's last deal.

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#29 Rogue
January 11 2011, 10:09PM
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I think the only way you move Penner or Hemsky is for a draft choice. the only one I would be interested in would be Bostons Leaf pick. Would Boston be interested in either one if they want to take a serious run at the Cup? One thing they do lack is scoring. Jordan Staal would be great for either one, but that would not happen until the summer. As far as Jones goes, I view him as a Brule from last year. As Willis said about Brule, move him when he is at peak value, if there is something interesting.

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#30 gongshow
January 11 2011, 10:29PM
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So if you could sign Jones for approximately $1M/year X 3 years, vs. trading for a 3rd rounder, it sounds like many of you would take the 3rd rounder that is a low probability payoff?

Assume you draft a 3rd rounder that makes the team in a few years the probability of the payoff being a top 6 forward (or top 3 Dman) is pretty low. The possibility of a bottom 6er (or bottom 3 Dman) is probably about equal to that draftee never seeing an NHL rink.

Next, assume that if said draftee does make team as bottom 6er, he signs a contract for what? $750K? $850K?

So, your trading an inexpensive, yet valuable piece for the potential of a player that could develop into that player, in order to save about $2-300K/year?

The only reason I see to trade Jones is if we have a log jam of players waiting to fill his role and projected to be an improvement.

(***Having said all that, I do understand that JW had brought up recently the fact that Jones has atrocious +/- scoring chances this year, so maybe that's the reason to move him if Tambo believes that he's pulling the wool over some other GM's eyes***)

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#31 gongshow
January 11 2011, 10:31PM
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By the way, I looked and couldn't find info on what the probability of making the NHL is coming out of each draft round, and secondly what the quality of those that do is.

Any help?

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#32 Tayranchula
January 11 2011, 10:36PM
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I know this is kinda off topic, but I agree with how trading SMAC is impossible and he really is a useless player unless Colton Orr is in the other teams lineup and when he doesnt fight, SMAC is completely useless.

My point in saying all this is how effective tough guy Matt Carkner is. A tuffy like SMAC is allowed to play minimal mins as a winger knowing that there will be no effect against the team with him on the ice for so little. But having a tuffy as a Dman is different, this player has got to know how to play and make an impact without his fists aswell. What im trying to say is if the Oilers want there body guard they should really have a player like Carkner who can actually play when needed to instead of being a grocery stick on the bench for 58 mins of a game. Ben Eager also comes to mind but I doubt the Oil can take away either of those players from either one of there respected teams.

I read a blog earlier about how the Oil need a player like Lucic and Kassian to play with Hall. Another player that come to mind is Brian Boyle of NYR or Wayne Simmonds to an extent.

The Oil really have got to get tougher and become almost thuggary because its becoming discusting to watch everyone get pushed around and do nothing. The only player that plays with the (as Matt Greene would put it) meat and patatoes is Peckham and everyone is noticing how valueable he is right now.

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#33 Sandra Blood
January 11 2011, 11:31PM
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What about Coglino? his value is at it's highest now.

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#34 Rick
January 11 2011, 11:50PM
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@Archaeologuy

LOck up Penner to a long term contract...where do you get 245 lb. 26-30 goals scorers???They are rare..plus he gets along with everyone...

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#35 speeds
January 12 2011, 01:25AM
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LT: I agree with those listed, and would add Cogliano, Fraser, and Jacques to the list of players might be willing to move.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Hemsky or Penner move at the deadline, but if it's going to happen the draft might be just as likely.

How many players from the active roster do you actually expect to move from now until the deadline?

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#36 a lg dubl dubl
January 12 2011, 05:36AM
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As a few previous post have said there should be a time when obtaining picks and prospects has to slow down enough to build a solid "stanley cup contending team". IMO the Oilers should try and keep Jones, Penner and Hemsky. With the 3 rookies(and this yrs 1st pick)and the players mentioned above the Oilers have a pretty good team to start contending for the playoffs(and the cup). I just get worried that the Oilers might turn into the Islanders instead of the Pens/Caps/Hawks.

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#37 Oilcruzer
January 12 2011, 06:32AM
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Draft choices. Trade for all you can. Those are great for future trades.

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#39 yegCopywriter
January 12 2011, 08:03AM
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LT: Could you see L.A. parting with Hickey or Teubert for Penner?

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#40 VMR
January 12 2011, 08:15AM
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Lowetide wrote:

On Cogliano, I think Renney sees a player there. Not just from his comments but also the way he's handling him (more responsibility, etc). Fraser and Jacques haven't (imo) played well enough for another NHL team to make an offer.

I expect Tambellini will move Vandermeer, Foster and Brule. That would be my list.

I think Cogliano is a player, probably end up a defensive specialist 3rd liner with a bit of a scoring touch (if those skills he had in his first couple seasons ever reappear). That's useful for any team and if he continues working on his faceoffs he'll just get better an better. Maholtra didnt start out as such a beast in the circle and he didnt come into the league and plan on being a 3rd line center.

As for trades I keep thinking Hemsky to LA makes a lot of sense. They have a ton of D prospects and no room for them on their blueline. Would they give up Schenn and Hickey for Hemsky and Brule? Like you said it'd have to be a very good deal for the Oilers to make it at the deadline rather than wait until the summer or next years trade deadline but LA are in tough to make the playoffs and really close to being a contender.

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#41 5cups7years
January 12 2011, 08:31AM
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Getting rid of Jones would be unwise, he is really our only legit bottom 6 player, comes to play every night and does it well. Everyone else is inconsistent. We dont need Glencross 2.0 on our hands.

I think Hemsky should be a part of the future, i mean he is in his Prime years, a total offensive threat.

I like Penner, he could be one of the most domiating forwards in the league if he played his heart out everygame. I would be happy with a solid young D-Man or Defensive prospect and pick for him.

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#42 Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach
January 12 2011, 08:34AM
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I really hate to move Jones, but with that being said if they moved them I'd hope it's because they have indication he isn't going to re-sign.

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#43 Ducey
January 12 2011, 09:37AM
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Getting rid of Jones would be unwise, he is really our only legit bottom 6 player, comes to play every night and does it well. Everyone else is inconsistent.

The funny thing is that Jones is not a good third line player. His Rel Corsi is third worst on the team (-14.029) ahead of only Omarra and SMac. This means that a lot more shots are directed at the Oilers net when he is on the ice than when he is off. This can't be explained by his competition as he has some of the weakest quality of competition on the team. (Cogliano has had the toughest of any full time guy).

In other words, you have a guy with some nice boxcars, but does not check well or keep the puck out his own end.

I like Jones, but he is miscast as a third line player. He has not been playing the best teams players as a third liner should be able to do. In fact he has been playing against the dregs, and still getting wildly outshot. He is being outshot by the other teams' fourth liners.

If he was playing the other teams best players (as is Cogs) do you think we would be talking about whether he would get 20 goals this year?

Take advantage of some GM's that don't see him for what he is - a fourth liner who will get some points but won't tilt the ice the right way. Trade him.

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#44 David S
January 12 2011, 09:53AM
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Ducey wrote:

Getting rid of Jones would be unwise, he is really our only legit bottom 6 player, comes to play every night and does it well. Everyone else is inconsistent.

The funny thing is that Jones is not a good third line player. His Rel Corsi is third worst on the team (-14.029) ahead of only Omarra and SMac. This means that a lot more shots are directed at the Oilers net when he is on the ice than when he is off. This can't be explained by his competition as he has some of the weakest quality of competition on the team. (Cogliano has had the toughest of any full time guy).

In other words, you have a guy with some nice boxcars, but does not check well or keep the puck out his own end.

I like Jones, but he is miscast as a third line player. He has not been playing the best teams players as a third liner should be able to do. In fact he has been playing against the dregs, and still getting wildly outshot. He is being outshot by the other teams' fourth liners.

If he was playing the other teams best players (as is Cogs) do you think we would be talking about whether he would get 20 goals this year?

Take advantage of some GM's that don't see him for what he is - a fourth liner who will get some points but won't tilt the ice the right way. Trade him.

Luckily, Jones plays on a line with 4 other guys. Heh heh.

Putting him with the right team mates would seem to be the way to go. Miscast or not, he's producing and generating some energy out there. At this point, and in the near future we need at least a couple more like him. Not to mention that he has one of the best attitudes on the team.

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#45 Senator Theo
January 12 2011, 09:56AM
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If anything, I would hope we could get 5 more Jones' to round out the bottom 6. Maybe 2-3 anyway.

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#46 ClosetGM
January 12 2011, 10:13AM
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Ryan Jones. We steal this guy he turns out to be a decent energy guy that plays hard and puts the puck in the net and everyone wants to trade him. I hope the oilers management has learned from past mistakes and tries to resign him. What did we get for Smyth 2 nobodies and a prospect that is still in the minors, or pronger for that matter pronger for Smid. Great asset management. The fact of the matter is the oilers have never done well on the trade front and trading jones for a third rounder is complete lunacy. He is on pace for 20 goals or close to it and is one of the better oilers every night. Sign him to a reasonable contract and lets see what happens. Maybe he is the next matt moulson. Probably not but you never know.

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#47 Captain Obvious
January 12 2011, 10:23AM
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Ryan Jones is a marginal NHL hockey player. He isn't anywhere near as good as Torres, Brodziak, Glencross, etc.

Trading him is an obvious move.

The bottom six of the Oilers is dreadful however it can be fixed relatively easily in the offseason. There is no need to hold on to players like Ryan Jones because players like Ryan Jones are a dime a dozen.

I'd say trade Cogliano too but I can't imagine anyone wants him.

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#48 Brownlee loves the word meow
January 12 2011, 10:55AM
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Rick wrote:

LOck up Penner to a long term contract...where do you get 245 lb. 26-30 goals scorers???They are rare..plus he gets along with everyone...

meow well as long as he gets along with everyone lol...

Penner has the least amount of drive and heart I have ever seen! At the end of the Dallas game he literally stood against the boards as the puck was 2 feet away from him...you cant tell me he couldnt lunge his body and the more than 6 feet of lumber in his hands to try and get the puck...Hall would have been sprawling on the ice diving to get that puck...because he has heart and drive. What type of player do you think helps the Oilers in the future the most? It is time to deal Penner.

You get 245lb. 17-32 goal scorers that dont give a sh!t via Klowe being desperate. You try and trade said bum for something the team actually needs in the future.

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#49 VMR
January 12 2011, 11:02AM
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They can talk contract extension with Jones right now and it would be a good move to do so but how many guys have we seen come in and look decent for a season on the third line and then disappear next (yes I'm looking at you Brule).

If they dont resign him before the deadline I try and trade him, we wont need him this year. If you get a 3rd rounder take it and try and sign him in the offseason when he sees what his value is on the open market (I'm guessing it wont be that high).

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#50 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
January 12 2011, 11:41AM
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Just to go a little further on the Jones for a pick idea.

Take Jones draft class of 2004: 3rd round: theirs all of 2 players I'd take hands down over Jones.

4th round: (where Jones was taken) theirs 1 player I'd take hands down over Jones.

So basically we'd be cashing him in for a 1/20 chance of getting someone better.

No more trading real NHL'ers for pics outside the first 2 rounds!!!! (unless it's a guy that we will be losing for nothing)

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