GDB 46.0: IS GROWTH MORE IMPORTANT THAN WINS?

Jason Gregor
January 20 2011 12:56PM

It looks like Ales Hemsky won't be going to the NHL All-Star game again due to an injury. Hemsky is on the shelf with a concussion and likely won't be going to Carolina or partaking in the first All Star draft next Friday.The revolving door to the Oilers' infirmary just keeps on spinning, as Hemsky enters on the right side of the medicinal carousel, Shawn Horcoff is coming out the left side and will replace Hemsky on the roster.

The bigger questions should be, who replaces Hemsky on the right wing, and where does Horcoff play? Obviously he will play in the middle, but which line should he play on?

With Jordan Eberle likely a few days away from returning and Gilbert Brule still out with a mysterious illness, the only options would be to move Ryan Jones up to the top-six, or move Taylor Hall back to LW and slide Dustin Penner to the right side again.

Horcoff will be one of your top-three centres, so Andrew Cogliano would get bumped down to the fourth line and Colin Fraser would move upstairs, or possibly to the wing on the fourth line. You could move Cogliano to the wing for a few games to see if he can play there, even though he has played much better the past ten games, scoring three goals and seven points, but I'd keep him in the middle.

The Oilers are in 29th place and the playoffs were a pipe dream months ago, so why not use the final 37 games to find out what works, and specifically if Hall can play centre. The most glaring weakness on the Oilers is that they don't have a true number one centre. So find out if Hall can be that guy. He hasn't looked out of place in his five games at centre, so why not let him get more comfortable and see how it goes?

"We have a lot of hockey left," said  Tom Renney. "He hasn't seen his last games as a centreman, so we'll experiment with some things, but we want to make sure we give ourselves a chance to win too. There are ways and means to get Taylor in there, and what I'm going to look at now in the next few games is evaluate his stint at centre against how he is as a winger again and formulate an opinion if he is that flexible, or if I really like him at centre."

TOUGH SPOT FOR COACH TOM?

Renney is in a tough spot. He knows this is a rebuilding year, but it must be difficult for a coach to feel completely secure in their job when you are rebuilding. More often than not, when the rebuild is over that coach is not around to reap the rewards so rarely do coaches have the luxury of looking two or even one year down the road. And no coach can give off the impression to his players that he is looking ahead to next year, and not ice a team that they think gives them the best chance to win. Players want to win, they don't care about what the team will look like in two years, so it's a balancing act for Renney.

I asked Renney about that slippery slope.

"It is a tough for a coach that isn't confident and doesn't have the big picture in the forefront. That's how I am. We have to look longterm here, and my contribution, for however long it is, will certainly have an eye on that. I think that is one of the reasons why I'm here doing this, because that has been my motive since I've coached; to develop with an eye to the future."

I give Renney a lot of credit for understanding where the organization is, and realizing, that while the players want to win, his main purpose has to be in developing the kids and making them better players. That being said, I wonder how bad it would look if he had kept Hall at centre tonight?

How would the optics be if Jones played in the top two lines, and Horcoff centred your third line? Probably not great, but since Horcoff is coming off a knee injury, couldn't you bring him along slowly for a game or two?

If Horcoff gets pissed off, what is he going to do?

Pull a Souray and speak out? Demand a trade? No chance. He must understand that he isn't going anywhere due to the length and amount of his salary, and if he wants to win in the future, he should realize the main focus in the final 37 games should be figuring out what position is best for Hall.

If Hemsky hadn't been injured I wonder if Hall would have stayed at centre? Even though Cogliano has played better recently, I'd sacrifice bumping him to the 4th line, for the sake of developing Hall. Some tough decisions need to be made during the final 37 games, and some players might not like where they stand, but the reality is that Hall is the main piece of the puzzle moving forward, and figuring where he performs the best has to be priority number one.

TRADE JONES, EXCUSE ME?

I've read and heard a lot lately that the Oilers should trade Jones now, because his value is at an all-time high, even JW commented that Jones' production is misleading.

"Personally, I’d be looking to move a bunch of spare parts. I’d start with Ryan Jones: he’s got 10 goals, 15.9 shooting percentage, ugly scoring chance and underlying numbers, so I’d suggest it’s time to sell high. I believe he’s a fourth-liner, but that others will think much more of him and pay accordingly," wrote Willis.

I wasn't the biggest Jones fan at the start of the year, but in a season where most guys have underachieved, I think Jones is one of the few guys who has played well, and really hasn't overachieved like many think.

Jones has ten goals, on 63 shots, 14 points, is -3, averaging 11:49 of icetime in 45 games.

In 2009 he played 46 games and had seven goals, on 63 shots, 17 points, was +1 with 11:26 of icetime.

Last year he played 49 games (41 in NSH, 8 in EDM) and combined for eight goals, on 62 shots, 12 points, was even with 10:40 of icetime.

This year he has more goals, but fewer assists compared to 2009 the exact same amount of shots and his +/- is fairly consistent when you consider Nashville won more than Edmonton. His shooting % was 11.1 his first year, 13.0 last year and is 15.9 this year. So he is a bit higher, but if he drops to 13% next year is it really that big of a drop? His shooting % has increased, but his assists are down, so could you call that a saw off?

Jones isn't flashy, but he creates opportunities, skates well and has a knack for creating turnovers that lead to breakaways. He isn't great at finishing them, but he creates some pretty good chances. All ten of Jones' goals have come five-on-five, and he scores most of his goals from in tight. I wonder if given a few more shifts on the PP, if he would get a few more garbage goals, because he isn't shy about going to the net?

I don't think it is accurate to suggest Jones is overachieveing since his point production is pretty consistent the past three years, and if he can contribute 12-15 goals as a 4th line guy, who plays with some energy, I don't see why you would trade him. Unless you are going to get an agitator in return, I don't see anyone in the organization that is close to replacing Jones' production next year.

While it is great to think Jones could fetch a 2nd rounder in a trade, there is no guarantee that pick turns into a player, and in the meantime the Oilers have traded away a young guy (26) who through three seasons has been a decent goal scorer considering his icetime and games played.

This team needs to upgrade many areas of their game, but I don't see Jones as being a guy who has underachieved or overachieved. I think this is what you get from Jones, and what he gives Renney is a solid contributor in his bottom six.

QUICK HITS

Nikolai Khabibulin will start tonight, as Devan Dubnyk is still battling a severe chest cold/virus. Dubnyk sat in the dressing room with his pads and pants on during Tuesday's loss to Minnesota, hoping Khabibulin would stay in the game. He would have played if necessary, but said his energy level was almost zero. He is feeling better and expects to be ready to go on Sunday if Renney gives him the call.

Horcoff will centre Hall and Penner tonight, and the other three lines will remain the same. They didn't do much PP work, so it is unclear if Hall will stick with Linus Omark and Magnus Paajarvi on the man advantage. I liked how that trio moved the puck around on Tuesday, and would like to see them given some more PP time together.

The rest of the lineup is the same as last game:

Hall/Horcoff/Penner
Paajarvi/Gagner/Omark
Reddox/Cogliano/Jones
Jacques/Fraser/Stortini

Peckham/Gilbert
Petry/Smid
Foster/Chorney  

WISH UPON A STAR

GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Stars are very good team. They are getting great goaltending, have a dangerous top line and their 2nd and 3rd lines have a great mix of size, skill, grit and agitation. The Stars have won seven straight on the road, and they know they didn't deserve to beat Edmonton last week. The Stars road winning streak reaches eight, while the Oilers home woes continue with a 4-2 Stars win.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Steve Ott had the Oilers spitting mad last Tuesday, and he admitted he expects them to come after him tonight. Ott and Theo Peckham will have a verbal battle all night long, and when the Stars go up 4-1 Peckham will go looking to settle the score.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION:  Last game I sent out a tweet asking Oiler fans to predict when the Oilers PP streak would end. The correct pick got you into a draw for Oilers tickets. Dandaman_29 won the tickets. I credit Oiler fans for their support and patience this year, because in many other cities the rink wouldn't be full, and the TV numbers would dip.If the Stars score first, I will send out another tweet contest for my followers. If you have to sit through the games, you might as well win some tickets to witness the horror live. The answer will require more than just a lucky guess.

Ddf3e2ba09069c465299f3c416e43eae
One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
Avatar
#51 D-Man
January 20 2011, 03:41PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
David S wrote:

Guys. This is Ryan Jones we're talking about here, not Ovechkin's little brother. If he gets $975K right now, my guess is a few hundred thousand more is all he'll ever get. While he seems to be performing at (or slightly above) historical averages, its not like he's on pace for a 50 point season or anything. He's a decent find and the sort of player you re-sign at a reasonable price because he fills a hole in the bottom six.

I think alot of people forget he's 3rd/4th liner performing "OK" on a basement NHL team. In the greater scheme of things, he's not really that good. Even if we had to overpay for him, what would that amount to in league dollars? Maybe $200K? BFD.

It seems that Oilers fans' evaluation of players is being tainted by the fact they are comparing guys like Jones amongst a really weak group who wouldn't get you anything from any other team in the league. So by that comparison, Jones seems valuable. In the league as a whole? Not so much.

Jones has scored 10 goals on the 3rd/4th line without PP time. He almost scored 10 in the short period of time he was with us last year.

My point is that we need to ensure we don't over pay him. If he scored 10 goals with our team, one might speculate that he could be capable of more on a better team like a Chicago or Detroit. Hence the risk of overpaying him.

I agree - a raise of a couple hundred grand makes sense and is fair. Paying him another $1.0 million does not make sense; and I'm guessing considering your opinion of Jones - you could agree to that.

Avatar
#52 D-Man
January 20 2011, 03:47PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

And I'll counter with: Unsued cap space is completely worthless.

We have 10 million in cap space this year, as of right now anyways we've recieved 0 benifit from him.

You couldn't be more wrong... Philadelphia would kill right now for another couple of million dollars in unused cap space to buy more goaltender insurance... Chicago had to blow up their team to remain under the cap.

Cap management is crucial; and considering the growth we should expect from the kids, we should also expect a growing payroll.

You're right that this year we've received zero benefit on the ice this year. However, when we need to start negotiating raises for Penner and/or Hemsky next year and then the kids the year after that - you'd be surprised how valuable that $10 million is.

From a business sense, that $10 million dollars not over spent might mean additional funds for the arena... I know - a spit in the bucket, but we forget that Katz is also in the business of making money.

Avatar
#53 Ogden Brother Jr. - Team Strudwick for coach
January 20 2011, 03:52PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
D-Man wrote:

You couldn't be more wrong... Philadelphia would kill right now for another couple of million dollars in unused cap space to buy more goaltender insurance... Chicago had to blow up their team to remain under the cap.

Cap management is crucial; and considering the growth we should expect from the kids, we should also expect a growing payroll.

You're right that this year we've received zero benefit on the ice this year. However, when we need to start negotiating raises for Penner and/or Hemsky next year and then the kids the year after that - you'd be surprised how valuable that $10 million is.

From a business sense, that $10 million dollars not over spent might mean additional funds for the arena... I know - a spit in the bucket, but we forget that Katz is also in the business of making money.

Odds are we won't need that money until the kids entry-level deals are done.

Avatar
#54 David S
January 20 2011, 03:55PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
D-Man wrote:

Jones has scored 10 goals on the 3rd/4th line without PP time. He almost scored 10 in the short period of time he was with us last year.

My point is that we need to ensure we don't over pay him. If he scored 10 goals with our team, one might speculate that he could be capable of more on a better team like a Chicago or Detroit. Hence the risk of overpaying him.

I agree - a raise of a couple hundred grand makes sense and is fair. Paying him another $1.0 million does not make sense; and I'm guessing considering your opinion of Jones - you could agree to that.

Yeah. My point was that an "overpay" of a guy that makes Jones' salary would be insignificant. He's not going to get the kind of cash some guys here think because in the larger scheme of things he's just not that good. It doesn't take much to stand out amongst ~world-class talent~ the likes of SMac, Strudwick, Foster, Fraser, JFJ, Vandermeer, O'Marra...

Avatar
#55 Jonathan Willis
January 20 2011, 03:55PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

Golly gee, I'd feel a lot different about most of these arguments if they hadn't been made about Brule last season.

By scoring chances, Jones is one of the worst players on the team. That's a bad thing. By the shot numbers, Jones is one of the worst players on the team. That's a bad thing too. This is the same guy who had five points and a minus-6 rating in a 15-game AHL stint last season.

He's a fourth-liner. People seem to think of him as a good third-liner. It's a deep draft this year. Deal him and replace him this summer.

Avatar
#56 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
January 20 2011, 04:07PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
D-Man wrote:

You couldn't be more wrong... Philadelphia would kill right now for another couple of million dollars in unused cap space to buy more goaltender insurance... Chicago had to blow up their team to remain under the cap.

Cap management is crucial; and considering the growth we should expect from the kids, we should also expect a growing payroll.

You're right that this year we've received zero benefit on the ice this year. However, when we need to start negotiating raises for Penner and/or Hemsky next year and then the kids the year after that - you'd be surprised how valuable that $10 million is.

From a business sense, that $10 million dollars not over spent might mean additional funds for the arena... I know - a spit in the bucket, but we forget that Katz is also in the business of making money.

Great stuff, doesn't really have anything to do with my post.... but still great stuff.

Avatar
#57 Jonathan Willis
January 20 2011, 04:08PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

Some on-ice numbers for Jones from the last two seasons and this one:

2008-09:

1. On-ice EV SH%: 5.71 2. On-ice EV SH/60: 26.1 3. On-ice EV G/60: 1.5

2009-10:

1. On-ice EV SH%: 7.81 2. On-ice EV SH/60: 23.7 3. On-ice EV G/60: 1.85

2010-11:

1. On-ice EV SH%: 11.64 2. On-ice EV SH/60: 17.7 3. On-ice EV G/60: 2.06

So, we see a few trends here. Jones has seen on-ice shots for fall off a cliff, but on-ice goal-scoring has actually spiked because he and his linemates - generally castoffs, as many have noted - are enjoying an incredibly high on-ice shooting percentage.

It will not last. There's absolutely no chance it will last. Unless the underlying shot numbers - and scoring chance numbers - improve, at some point the bottom is going to fall out.

Avatar
#59 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
January 20 2011, 04:10PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Jonathan Willis wrote:

Some on-ice numbers for Jones from the last two seasons and this one:

2008-09:

1. On-ice EV SH%: 5.71 2. On-ice EV SH/60: 26.1 3. On-ice EV G/60: 1.5

2009-10:

1. On-ice EV SH%: 7.81 2. On-ice EV SH/60: 23.7 3. On-ice EV G/60: 1.85

2010-11:

1. On-ice EV SH%: 11.64 2. On-ice EV SH/60: 17.7 3. On-ice EV G/60: 2.06

So, we see a few trends here. Jones has seen on-ice shots for fall off a cliff, but on-ice goal-scoring has actually spiked because he and his linemates - generally castoffs, as many have noted - are enjoying an incredibly high on-ice shooting percentage.

It will not last. There's absolutely no chance it will last. Unless the underlying shot numbers - and scoring chance numbers - improve, at some point the bottom is going to fall out.

This point specifically only matters though if you are signing him because you think you are getting an 18 - 20 goal guy.

Avatar
#60 Crash
January 20 2011, 04:11PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Jonathan Willis wrote:

Golly gee, I'd feel a lot different about most of these arguments if they hadn't been made about Brule last season.

By scoring chances, Jones is one of the worst players on the team. That's a bad thing. By the shot numbers, Jones is one of the worst players on the team. That's a bad thing too. This is the same guy who had five points and a minus-6 rating in a 15-game AHL stint last season.

He's a fourth-liner. People seem to think of him as a good third-liner. It's a deep draft this year. Deal him and replace him this summer.

For me it wouldn't matter whether Jones was traded or kept but I find it interesting that you'd trot out a poor AHL stat to diminish Jones while hinting that you are doing an article that having Sheldon Souray here would solve half of the Oilers problems on defense given Souray's stellar AHL stint so far.

Sheldon Souray who has all of 1 goal and 6 assists in the AHL this year and has managed to play only 15 healthy games this year?

Avatar
#61 VMR
January 20 2011, 04:16PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Jason Gregor

What risk Gregor? He's gone at the end of the year anyway or we can sign him back. UFA.

Avatar
#62 Ender
January 20 2011, 04:17PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

On the one hand, I'm not particularly attached to Jones emotionally and if the Oilers said "Go Fish" and wangled a second-rounder for him, I'd probably say "Meh" and cross my fingers that SMB parlayed it into someone good.

On the other hand, my subconscious keeps screaming "Marty Reasoner! Marty Reasoner! Marty Reasoner!" I really don't want to see Jones doing well for someone else next season. For this reason alone, I think I keep the bird in the hand, even if it's scrawny and missing a few feathers.

Avatar
#63 Jonathan Willis
January 20 2011, 04:17PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Crash

The comment you're referring to was a specific reply to Ducey, who said the Oilers need two half-decent defencemen. Souray's a half-decent defenceman, when healthy.

That was the 'half of the problem;' it was never intended to be a literal statement that Sheldon Souray would fix half the problems on the Oilers blueline.

And we can talk about injuries (I did, at length, back when people were lining up to tell me what a great signing Souray was) but 15 games and seven points for a rusty defenceman battling injuries isn't a bad season even in the AHL.

Avatar
#64 Jonathan Willis
January 20 2011, 04:18PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

@ Ender:

Think about it this way: would you rather have Jones or Curtis Hamilton? Jones or Martin Marincin?

Avatar
#65 Jonathan Willis
January 20 2011, 04:20PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@ OB1:

It also matters if you think that plus/minus he has means he's a great defensive player on a bad team, and not a guy getting lit up on the shot/scoring chances clock but getting away with it because of his 103.2 PDO.

Avatar
#66 BOTTS89
January 20 2011, 04:20PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Jonathan Willis wrote:

Golly gee, I'd feel a lot different about most of these arguments if they hadn't been made about Brule last season.

By scoring chances, Jones is one of the worst players on the team. That's a bad thing. By the shot numbers, Jones is one of the worst players on the team. That's a bad thing too. This is the same guy who had five points and a minus-6 rating in a 15-game AHL stint last season.

He's a fourth-liner. People seem to think of him as a good third-liner. It's a deep draft this year. Deal him and replace him this summer.

Disagree again JW, like gregor said you have a nice servicable player that the oil have really needed @ a good age and could maybe even improve on his game and your option is to deal him....IMO that doesn't make sense ESPECIALLY basing it on his shooting percentage... :$ boggles the mind

Avatar
#67 Banger
January 20 2011, 04:21PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Jonathan Willis wrote:

Some on-ice numbers for Jones from the last two seasons and this one:

2008-09:

1. On-ice EV SH%: 5.71 2. On-ice EV SH/60: 26.1 3. On-ice EV G/60: 1.5

2009-10:

1. On-ice EV SH%: 7.81 2. On-ice EV SH/60: 23.7 3. On-ice EV G/60: 1.85

2010-11:

1. On-ice EV SH%: 11.64 2. On-ice EV SH/60: 17.7 3. On-ice EV G/60: 2.06

So, we see a few trends here. Jones has seen on-ice shots for fall off a cliff, but on-ice goal-scoring has actually spiked because he and his linemates - generally castoffs, as many have noted - are enjoying an incredibly high on-ice shooting percentage.

It will not last. There's absolutely no chance it will last. Unless the underlying shot numbers - and scoring chance numbers - improve, at some point the bottom is going to fall out.

I lost interest faster in these stats then i did with this video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1VEY7ndKCs

Avatar
#68 Jonathan Willis
January 20 2011, 04:25PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@BOTTS89

Read this article.

Compare the methods used for evaluation. Then compare how people reacted then, and how people are reacting now.

I'm not really arguing to convince people - I'm laying things out there so a year from now I can convince people that shot/scoring chance numbers really do matter.

Edit to add: Though if people didn't take that away from Brule, maybe they'll never get it.

Avatar
#69 Robin Brownlee
January 20 2011, 04:26PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Jonathan Willis

Are you saying, "I was right on Brule, so I'm always right?"

Brule's difficulties this season have as much to do with missing games, bad health, poor all-round play resulting in a diminished role and less prime ice time as they do shooting percentage.

Brule didn't need to sustain last season's shooting percentage to match or marginally improve on last season's numbers.

He needed to play more than 65 games, which seemed to be reasonable. He needed to bump up a couple of minutes playing time to 16 or 17 a night from his 14:14 of a year ago, which seemed reasonable. He needed to get 40-50 more shots with those increased games and increased minutes. None of it has happened.

Did anybody project Brule as a 60 or 70-point player this season? Not that I recall. He's fallen right off the map. I didn't see that coming and neither did you.

Avatar
#70 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
January 20 2011, 04:34PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Jonathan Willis wrote:

@ Ender:

Think about it this way: would you rather have Jones or Curtis Hamilton? Jones or Martin Marincin?

Hey now, don't forget the other 22/30 seconds rounders that never become a better player then Jones (not that the two above have done anything at the NHL level)

Avatar
#71 Quicksilver ballet
January 20 2011, 04:35PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

And I'll counter with: Unsued cap space is completely worthless.

We have 10 million in cap space this year, as of right now anyways we've recieved 0 benifit from him.

We could be surprised how much other teams want to access our unused cap space. D-Man is right, it could be the difference maker in the deal or two we may see before the end of the season.

I could see a couple teams wanting to take advantage of bringing in 5 million in players one way and sending back 8 million in players the other(Ottawa for one).

Didn't the Leafs get a second round pick from the Lightning a couple years ago for taking on 3 injured players, a goalie and 2 skaters, the goalie was that godzilla kid who used to play for the Capitals.

Avatar
#72 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
January 20 2011, 04:38PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Jonathan Willis wrote:

@ OB1:

It also matters if you think that plus/minus he has means he's a great defensive player on a bad team, and not a guy getting lit up on the shot/scoring chances clock but getting away with it because of his 103.2 PDO.

The post specific was offense only.

That said, I don't (and never did) feel he's a great defensive player. I feel he's a solid 4th liner that can move up the line-up when needed, PK and chip in 10 - 15 goals.

Given that I have 0 faith in Tambellini replacing Jones with someone better, I'd hang onto him while I had the chance.

Avatar
#73 Ender
January 20 2011, 04:40PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Jonathan Willis

I completely admit that my preference for Jones is based on emotion rather than logic, which to some degree is out of character for me. I understand your premise, and I agree that it makes sense.

Perhaps the reason that so many people here are hypersensitive to the Glencross, Stoll, Brodziak, Reasoner, and other departures is that we've seen so many of our good players leave in the past and the result has always been to leave us worse-off than before.

I think that logically, other teams must prune away middling players to make room for exceptional players. When these cast-offs become sucessful role-players for new teams, the first team probably doesn't feel jealous; they accept the 'loss' as a part of what they had to do to become stronger.

Here in Edmonton, we've just never (very rarely?) seen the 'getting stronger' part, and maybe that make us reject all player-loss unless it's obvious that they cannot play anywhere in the NHL (read: POS). Perhaps in time, after we've experienced some success in the league again, we will no longer begrudge 'losing' a third-tier player in order to create room for a second-tier one.

Avatar
#74 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
January 20 2011, 04:41PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Jonathan Willis wrote:

Read this article.

Compare the methods used for evaluation. Then compare how people reacted then, and how people are reacting now.

I'm not really arguing to convince people - I'm laying things out there so a year from now I can convince people that shot/scoring chance numbers really do matter.

Edit to add: Though if people didn't take that away from Brule, maybe they'll never get it.

Re Brule

Also, just because he's had a rough year doesn't mean he should have been traded last year. Theirs no reason he can't re-bound and turn into a solid 3rd liner... I'd still takes his odds of doing just that then some draft pick.

Avatar
#75 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
January 20 2011, 04:43PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Quicksilver ballet wrote:

We could be surprised how much other teams want to access our unused cap space. D-Man is right, it could be the difference maker in the deal or two we may see before the end of the season.

I could see a couple teams wanting to take advantage of bringing in 5 million in players one way and sending back 8 million in players the other(Ottawa for one).

Didn't the Leafs get a second round pick from the Lightning a couple years ago for taking on 3 injured players, a goalie and 2 skaters, the goalie was that godzilla kid who used to play for the Capitals.

1. I said *********unused cap space*********

2. I'm pretty sure it was a 4th rounder, going off memory they paid about a million dollars for a 4th rounder. Whoopty do.

Avatar
#77 Jonathan Willis
January 20 2011, 04:46PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@Robin Brownlee

I'm saying Brule had miserable on-ice numbers whenever seperated from Penner, and it was only the presence of Penner which created the illusion that Brule was a game-breaker. It was his scoring chance numbers and on-ice shots numbers which indicated his true value.

I'm saying this season that Jones has miserable on-ice numbers, and that those numbers indicate his value is in the fourth-line range, not above that.

Avatar
#78 Jonathan Willis
January 20 2011, 04:49PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@ Jason Gregor:

Most fourth lines average in the 6-8% range for on-ice shooting percentage. Jones has been between 5-1/2 and 8 over his career. Now he's at 11.5.

That means his line is twice as likely to score on any given shot as it was in 2008-09 and, and almost 150% more likely to score as they were in 2009-10.

If we use the 2009-10 number, we'd expect to see Jones on the ice for one-third fewer goals - something which would torch his plus/minus and shows the actual level of two-way ability he has.

Avatar
#79 rubbertrout
January 20 2011, 04:49PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

Anybody else waiting for the Lowetide & JW v. Brownlee and Gregor tag team UFC style cage match?

I'm picturing Wanye walking across the ring holding up round signs wearing a skimpy bikini.

Now I'm trying to douse my eyes with bleach to get that picture out of my head.

Avatar
#80 VMR
January 20 2011, 04:50PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

Problem with that option is he's missing his chances and other players are stepping up. Omark has shown more in his short time here than Brule did, it'd be hard to send Omark down while Brule took his icetime.

Of course Brule is untradeable with his injuries and another year on his contract.

Avatar
#82 Ender
January 20 2011, 04:53PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers
rubbertrout wrote:

Anybody else waiting for the Lowetide & JW v. Brownlee and Gregor tag team UFC style cage match?

I'm picturing Wanye walking across the ring holding up round signs wearing a skimpy bikini.

Now I'm trying to douse my eyes with bleach to get that picture out of my head.

Any company that produces a bikini in that size should be boycotted if not sued outright.
;-)

Avatar
#83 BOTTS89
January 20 2011, 04:55PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Jonathan Willis wrote:

Read this article.

Compare the methods used for evaluation. Then compare how people reacted then, and how people are reacting now.

I'm not really arguing to convince people - I'm laying things out there so a year from now I can convince people that shot/scoring chance numbers really do matter.

Edit to add: Though if people didn't take that away from Brule, maybe they'll never get it.

Here is my argument JW, why are you baseing it soley on numbers to deal him away ??! There is way more to hockey then a shooting percentage! I am not saying you havn't played, BUT anyone who has played competitive hockey knows guys like ryan jones bring a ton to the table..his compete level he brings every night, he seems great in the room and on the nice and all that just leads to better development for the kids. So writing him off based on shooting percentage and not looking at his overall game and what he brings to the rink is ridiculous!.....IMO of course ;)

Avatar
#84 David S
January 20 2011, 04:59PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
1
cheers

Sheesh. For a marginal player, Jones sure spices up the post count.

Avatar
#86 Jonathan Willis
January 20 2011, 05:03PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Anyway, I won't belabour the point any more. People know where I stand and why, and if they disagree that's just fine.

Avatar
#87 Jonathan Willis
January 20 2011, 05:05PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@ Jason Gregor:

The number I'm quoting is on-ice shooting percentage, not shooting percentage; i.e. the combined shooting percentage of all players when Jones is on the ice, rather than Jones' individual shooting percentage.

Jones has been badly outshot, but most haven't noticed because the pucks seem to go in when he's on the ice.

Avatar
#89 Archaeologuy
January 20 2011, 05:39PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Why are people talking about the need to keep Ryan Jones? Has he signed a contract extension that I'm not aware of? Or is he still slated to become a Free Agent on Canada Day?

What Oilers need does he serve playing for another team?

Get real people. If Jones hasnt signed an extension before the trade deadline Steve Tambellini would be an idiot if he DIDNT get whatever he could for a 3rd liner having a career year.

Avatar
#90 @NateInVegas
January 20 2011, 05:41PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@JG,

Nate sans Hate Hockey Outsider December 05 2010, 11:15AM 0 props

"Oilers go 7-10-3 at best over the next 20"

They went 5-12-3 ...

For a negative guy I was pretty accurate, no?

Avatar
#91 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
January 20 2011, 06:49PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

I would like to add that it isn't a "Noooo don't trade Jones!!!" situation. After, everyone on the roster should be available for the right price.

So, I kind of get the feel that people are talking 2nd rounder when discussing Jones trades... and if it was looking like a mid 2nd might be on the table, well then things get a little more interesting.

However, is that actually a resonable return for Jones?

Rental prices seem to be dropping drastically the last few years.

I mean if a solid vet like Langenbrunner(one year removed from back to back 60 point seasons I might add)brings back a 3rd rounder, potential a 2nd, and Eager goes for a 5th... doesn't that put Jones value at a 4th rounder?? ... maybe 3rd in a best case scenario

A quick glance at what picks that late typically return:

http://proicehockey.about.com/od/prospects/f/draft_success.htm

Should really make you stop and think, if it's really a deal we should make.

Avatar
#92 Archaeologuy
January 20 2011, 06:53PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

3rd round pick >>>>>>>>>> 20 games of Jones before he hits UFA and walks away for nothing.

Avatar
#93 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
January 20 2011, 07:16PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Archaeologuy wrote:

3rd round pick >>>>>>>>>> 20 games of Jones before he hits UFA and walks away for nothing.

I'm not exactly sure why you keep pretending their isn't a third possible outcome here.

Also, I'm thinking 4th rounder is far more likely.

Avatar
#94 Wanyes bastard child
January 20 2011, 07:24PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@@NateInVegas

Are you looking for a pat on the back?

Avatar
#95 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
January 20 2011, 07:26PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
David S wrote:

Sheesh. For a marginal player, Jones sure spices up the post count.

i agree.

At the right price point, Jones is a good fit on this team. Obviously, if he wants a crazy amount of $$$$ it makes no sense, but at a decent contract, i take Jones over an unknown 3rd or 4th rounder 11 times out of 10.

edit: ~pffft, and a shorthanded goal? what good is that?~

Avatar
#96 Archaeologuy
January 20 2011, 07:32PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

Fine,

4th round pick >>>>>>> 20 games of Jones before he hits UFA and walks away for nothing.

Ofcourse there is a 3rd option, but why should the Oilers gamble with that for some 3rd liner? If he hasnt signed a contract by the deadline then he better be gone.

If Jones walks on July 1 and it comes out later that there was a pick on the table for Jones (who just scored short handed as I write this) will you call Tambi an idiot?

Avatar
#97 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
January 20 2011, 07:32PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

Nice timing.

Trade him!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Avatar
#98 Archaeologuy
January 20 2011, 07:33PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

My star set that up. Way to go Cogs!!

Avatar
#99 LoDog
January 20 2011, 07:34PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers

RFJ!

It's gotta be the mullet.

Avatar
#100 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
January 20 2011, 07:34PM
Trash it!
0
trashes
Cheers
0
cheers
Archaeologuy wrote:

Fine,

4th round pick >>>>>>> 20 games of Jones before he hits UFA and walks away for nothing.

Ofcourse there is a 3rd option, but why should the Oilers gamble with that for some 3rd liner? If he hasnt signed a contract by the deadline then he better be gone.

If Jones walks on July 1 and it comes out later that there was a pick on the table for Jones (who just scored short handed as I write this) will you call Tambi an idiot?

Yes Arch, if he says he isn't staying then you trade him for whatever you can get, 6th rounder included.

That's the beauty of the situation though, we can find out (and finalize) before he has the opportunity to walk away.

Comments are closed for this article.