The Gods Must be Crazy (Trade Deadline Primer #2)

Lowetide
February 01 2011 06:11PM

I had a trade deadline post ready to go tonight, but Zack Stortini was part of it. Oh well. I'll include him in anyway, as there's a chance he'll be in the organization come the deadline. When it comes to this deadline, the Oilers are extremely likely to do the same thing they did a year ago: flush blue.
 

As we discussed in the first trade deadline primer (found here), the Oilers traded four defensemen while acquiring two one year ago. Let's list the deals again:

  • March 1: D Denis Grebeshkov to Nashville for their 2nd rd pick. Stu MacGregor turned that into Curtis Hamilton.
  • March 2: D Cody Wild to Boston for F Matt Marquardt.
  • March 3: D Lubo Visnovsky to Anaheim for D Ryan Whitney and a 6th rd pick in 2010. MBS turned that selection into Brandon Davidson.
  • March 3: D Steve Staios to Calgary for D Aaron Johnson and 2011 3rd rd pick.

The Oilers dealt Grebeshkov and Staios for picks, Wild for a depth minor leaguer and made an actual hockey trade with Anaheim. One of the things that always surprises me at the deadline is the enormous value veteran defensemen hold. We watch them all season and know their every weakness, but the fact remains that smart hockey men stockpile them every deadline. Why? A couple of reasons: young defensemen can kill you when the games get tight, and defensemen get hurt a lot. Remember when the Oilers dealt for Tarnstrom and Spacek near the deadline 2006? They needed them for the run, and that's for sure.

Nothing more losery than blogging about trades that haven't happened yet, but I think there's a chance Steve Tambellini pulls the trigger on a couple of surprising deals. From what we read this is a deep draft and we also know that the organization has done well by adding bullets for Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor's gun. With that in mind, here's my list (from most to least valuable) and a guess at the return. Feel free to disagree, I'm certainly no expert on the subject of trades.

UNLIKELY TO MOVE

  1. Dustin Penner: If the Oilers are convinced Penner won't sign for a good number, this might be the time to deal him. Penner is having a good season, he's healthy and it isn't beyond reasonable for another team to believe he can help them go deep this spring. Return: A very good young player in his entry level contract or an outstanding prospect, plus a pick.  
  2. Ales Hemsky: Because of the injuries, I think 83's value may be a little lower than Penner's this year. It's a good reason to keep him, but the other consideration is that he may have extreme value for a team looking for exactly this player type (and the LA Kings are a candidate). Return: Same as Penner's, perhaps a little less due to injury concerns.

AVAILABLE FOR THE RIGHT RETURN

  1. Ladislav Smid: With the development of both Peckham and Petry, Smid once again finds himself on the outskirts of the top 4D in Edmonton. A team looking for a veteran will like his youth, his wheels and his toughness after the whistle. He's inconsistent, but healthy and at the very least should be a dependable addition to any blueline for years to come. Return: A high 2nd rd pick, say 35-50.
  2. Andrew Cogliano: Speedster has improved his play this season and gained the coach's confidence in several areas. An NHL team looking for some secondary scoring and perhaps an extra hand on the PK might make the investment. Return: Oilers would probably be better off getting a bullet for Stu in return, as they have a plethora of young forwards pushing for playing time.
  3. Ryan Jones: Has a shot at 20 goals and plays with a lot of energy. A team looking for some scoring punch without having to give up a lot for him might see Jones as a solid option. Return: A pick somewhere in the top 100, say late 2nd or early 3rd rd selection.

AVAILABLE

  1. Kurtis Foster: Despite having a poor season in Edmonton, his 5x4 resume is obvious and he's 3-5-8 on a terrible PP in Edmonton. A team looking for an inexpensive option for that position (PP shooter) might see Foster as an attractive option. Return: Because there's another year on the contract, I'll say a mid-to-late 3rd rd selection.
  2. Jim Vandermeer: Laugh all you want, I bet he gets a solid return. Vandermeer is exactly the kind of plodding defender that NHL teams grab at the deadline. Why? He's a free agent, he can sit for weeks without bitching and you can insert him into the lineup at a moment's notice and pretty much know what you'll get. That has value. Return: Identical to the Foster return, mid-to-late 3rd rd selection.

Really, really available

  1. Zack Stortini: Seems ridiculous now, but this is where I slotted him and there's no sense changing it now. I think Stortini might have some value to a team looking for a low event winger with some size who can play a few minutes a night and add some grit. I understand he doesn't belong on the list and may not be an Oiler tomorrow, but suspect he has some value. ST would have shopped him, so there's not likely a lot of interest now. But, things can change in a couple of weeks. Return: A pick in the 130-140 range.
  2. Martin Gerber: Minor leaguer is nice insurance for an NHL team with health or performance issues at the NHL level. Return: A pick in the 170-180 range.
  3. Gilbert BruleHe's falling so quickly I'm not sure he's going to play again this season. Rumors about flu and other ailments remind some of us of the "Raffi Torres is missing" period where no one even bothered to ask about the rugged LW. Return: A late round pick. Seriously.

One more deadline update before Feb 28.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#101 Archaeologuy
February 02 2011, 01:32PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

I find it very frustrating that you continuously act like extending the guy isn't an option.

I find it very frustrating that you continuously act like the Oilers have extended Jones or that he has expressed a desire to be extended.

It IS an option. It is an option that has not happened and has no evidence to support that it WILL happen.

We are now a month away from the deadline and I havent heard any rumblings that the Oilers are working on extending the guy. Have you?

At what point do you accept that it is much more likely that Jones will try to cash in on this career season by landing a job on a winner or for more money than he is likely worth than it is that Jones will sign an extension here?

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#102 jr_christ
February 02 2011, 01:35PM
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@ H B M W

One thing about this blog site is that if you are against the general consensus of blue collar workers on here... you usually get attacked personally.

For instance, yesterday I commented that Brule was terrible and needed to be traded and I had someone telling me he sleeps with my mom...

It really is the beauty of Oilers Nation

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#103 jr_christ
February 02 2011, 01:37PM
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@ Archaeologuy,

Jones has expressed TONS of interest in remaining in Edmonton through many tweets.

He continually says he loves the City and the organization...

He also says he doesn't understand why 20% of players wouldn't like to come here. He's a class act and a guy who likes Edmonton...

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#104 Archaeologuy
February 02 2011, 01:40PM
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@jr_christ

Then he can sign on the dotted line before the deadline.

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#105 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
February 02 2011, 01:41PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

I find it very frustrating that you continuously act like the Oilers have extended Jones or that he has expressed a desire to be extended.

It IS an option. It is an option that has not happened and has no evidence to support that it WILL happen.

We are now a month away from the deadline and I havent heard any rumblings that the Oilers are working on extending the guy. Have you?

At what point do you accept that it is much more likely that Jones will try to cash in on this career season by landing a job on a winner or for more money than he is likely worth than it is that Jones will sign an extension here?

I haven't once acted like they have extended him, I've stated that I would like them to extend him. And that it is a viable option.

However, statements like:

"He is the definition of CANT BE KEPT MOVING FORWARD."

Are flat out rediculous

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#106 rubbertrout
February 02 2011, 01:46PM
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Lowetide wrote:

I appreciate your honesty, and I see your point of view. If you're reading my posts there won't be any breaking news or anything like it.

I offer my opinion as a fan, and not everyone is going to enjoy it. I can say that in my time at ON that a request has been made for me to post a game day thread twice. Both times it was a request from Jason Gregor.

I'm having a blast posting here, but your idea of guest writers is a good one and I'll pass it along. My contract with ON is for two years, and then we'll review.

I encourage you to make your views known to them (as you have here) as it will no doubt have some impact come renewal time.

All the best.

A very classy way to respond to [EDIT: HBMW's] post. LT you get mad props from me both for your content, and your intenet demeanor.

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#107 Archaeologuy
February 02 2011, 01:51PM
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@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

And I have consistently agreed that it is an option, and one I wouldnt mind happening. However, it currently has NOT happened.

Until it does happen, I look at Jones as an expiring contract who might be viewed as having some value by other clubs. Nothing else.

As long as Tambi is working on SOMETHING with Jones, sign or trade, I'm content.

I just have no reason to believe that Jones will be here past July 1.

ADDED: OB1, UFAs are by definition FREE AGENTS that have no obligation to remain assets of their previous clubs. I can't imagine a better example of "cant be kept moving forward." I thought this was pretty simple, but I guess not.

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#108 H.O.P.E
February 02 2011, 01:56PM
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If we trade away the few "depth" players we have, the PK'ers and any reasonable defenceman (referring to SMID - foster, vandermeer, storts can all go) then what seperates us from the Islanders? They kept giving away all of their players for draft picks and it never helped. Youth is great, but when the average age of your team is in their teens, there is a problem. Pits, Chicago, Detroit and all other contenders in this new era of hockey have all kept veterans for leadership, direction and motivation. We have so much youth, its time to keep some players that we have built up for so many years.

Im all for the UFA's going and bringing in any decent return, im all for Cogs, Brule, etc leaving as they are ALREADY replaced! If Hemmer can bring us a decent d-man, then he is expendable, and therefor, if and only when the return is proven, Smid can go. Petry is great, but if we bring up everyone at once next year then the depth is gone once again. Give this some time, only move players that are ALREADY replaced, and if our return isnt as good in a couple years time when we have full depth inside and out of the organization, then that is the price to pya to ice an actualy full NHL roster, unlike most of this year.

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#109 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
February 02 2011, 02:11PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

And I have consistently agreed that it is an option, and one I wouldnt mind happening. However, it currently has NOT happened.

Until it does happen, I look at Jones as an expiring contract who might be viewed as having some value by other clubs. Nothing else.

As long as Tambi is working on SOMETHING with Jones, sign or trade, I'm content.

I just have no reason to believe that Jones will be here past July 1.

ADDED: OB1, UFAs are by definition FREE AGENTS that have no obligation to remain assets of their previous clubs. I can't imagine a better example of "cant be kept moving forward." I thought this was pretty simple, but I guess not.

Theirs a big difference between "can't be kept" (which is what you claimed) and might not be able to be kept. (which is the reality of the situation)

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#110 Ender
February 02 2011, 02:15PM
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H B M W wrote:

You are a InDepth Eklund. Your articles never hold no weight and usually make no sense or have a purpose. I think the people at the top of the ON pyramid feed you so you'd feed the people this nonsense. They probably text you to put something together on days they have nothing and need trafic. There is no purpose or reason for this article, nor does it offer any insight. The people in charge should give your articles and space to guest writers or something as such. I'm not trying to hate on you, I'm just being honest. I'm sure you knew not everyone would like that nonsense when you wrote it, so don't let it bother you ego.

Jonathan Willis wrote:

For the record:

HansBaurMesserschmittWatson has been banned here previously for his generally abusive tone. Given H B M W's comments and username, I don't think it's a leap to conclude they're the same person. I'd advise people not to take him too seriously.

David S wrote:

The only intent from guys like this is to get some attention, which for the most part they are lacking in the outside ("real") world. Textbook troll here folks.

I know it's a troll and that feeding it only makes it stronger, but sometimes you just have to hold something up to the light for a second to expose it for what it is.

H B M W aka HansBaurMesserschmittWatson aka Kip Drodry has an opinion. He says that he is allowed to have it, and that's true. He also says that he's allowed to post it on a public forum and represent that opinion as fact even though it says hurtful things about someone else, and that's not necessarily true.

To say "I don't understand the point of LT's articles" might be a valid statement. To say "Your articles never hold no weight and usually make no sense or have a purpose" is wrong in so many ways that I leave it to others to go over them all in their own mind. The real indicator of 'right' and 'wrong' here is who looks dumber after the statement has been posted: LT, or whatever-he's-calling-himself-today.

If there was a poll question today regarding which of the two the site would be better off without, I don't think the vote would be close.

Nice article, LT.

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#111 Archaeologuy
February 02 2011, 02:20PM
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@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

Wow. However you want to spin this for the sake of argument, the Oilers still have no right or connection to Jones beginning July 1st.

He is nothing to the Oilers and no matter how hard Tambellini wants the guy he will have no claim to Jones. None.

The difference between "cant be kept" and "no longer a member of the organization with absolutely no right to even negotiate" is pretty small.

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#112 Ender
February 02 2011, 02:31PM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

Thought we could use a little poetry to lighten the mood here on gameday.

Give a man a fish and you'll feed him for a day, beat a man with a fish and he'll stop asking you for food.

~Build a man a fire, keep him warm for a night.

Light a man on fire, keep him warm for the rest of his life.~

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#113 Robin Brownlee
February 02 2011, 02:55PM
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@Ender

We don't need a poll.

As gracious as LT was in his response, he need not turn the other cheek for the kind of mindless crap this HBMW is shovelling his way now and has directed at others in the past. Troll? Nutbar? Doing it for laughs? I don't care what the motivation is. Isn't going to happen. No way.

HBMW, whoever you are, adios. You're done here.

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#114 jr_christ
February 02 2011, 03:40PM
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Ender wrote:

~Build a man a fire, keep him warm for a night.

Light a man on fire, keep him warm for the rest of his life.~

Haha... that's awesome.

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#115 Wax Man Riley
February 02 2011, 03:49PM
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@Robin Brownlee

@ Ender

Props to you both. I like how this forum is kept open-minded and how everyone is entitled to their opinion and to state that opinion, but disrespect and hate towards writers and commenter is not acceptable.

@Lowetide

You take the high road, and I was impressed with your reply. Props to you too. Keep up the good work, I'm sure the majority of posters here appreciate the work you put in.

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#116 Jonathan Willis
February 02 2011, 03:52PM
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HBMW wrote:

You are a InDepth Eklund.

Leaving aside the grammar and capitalization errors, this sentence is wrong because Eklund is a fraud who makes up rumours while Lowetide analyzes the team looking for logical moves. He also doesn't claim that he's getting tips from insiders.

Your articles never hold no weight and usually make no sense or have a purpose.

The double negative here means that HBMW is actually saying LT's articles do hold weight. Unfortunately, that makes no sense with the rest of his comment, and seems purposeless. Given HBMW's difficulty in making sense and having a purpose in this brief sentence, I'd argue he's in no position to judge an entire paragraph, let alone an article comprised of more than one.

I think the people at the top of the ON pyramid feed you so you'd feed the people this nonsense.

This statement is both without evidence and flat out wrong.

They probably text you to put something together on days they have nothing and need trafic.

This statement is both without evidence and flat out wrong.

There is no purpose or reason for this article, nor does it offer any insight.

Given HBMW's difficulty in making sense and having a purpose in this brief comment, I'd argue he's in no position to judge an entire paragraph, let alone an article comprised of more than one.

The people in charge should give your articles and space to guest writers or something as such.

Perhaps they should give the space to people who write such classic phrases as "something as such."

I'm not trying to hate on you, I'm just being honest.

I think 'to hate on you' is a great expression. If the powers that be ever decide to alter the English language, maybe they could include it. As for honesty, honest people generally don't treat their inaccurate suppositions as fact.

I'm sure you knew not everyone would like that nonsense when you wrote it, so don't let it bother you ego.

LT, please don't let this 'bother you ego.' I don't know what that means, but it sounds bad.

There are those who believe you can tell the quality of a man by the quality of his enemies; if we can extend that to the written word (i.e. you can tell the quality of a writer by the quality of his critics) than you're doing quite well.

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#117 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
February 02 2011, 03:54PM
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Robin Brownlee wrote:

We don't need a poll.

As gracious as LT was in his response, he need not turn the other cheek for the kind of mindless crap this HBMW is shovelling his way now and has directed at others in the past. Troll? Nutbar? Doing it for laughs? I don't care what the motivation is. Isn't going to happen. No way.

HBMW, whoever you are, adios. You're done here.

Good to see Robin, part of what makes this site great is that it is (relatively) troll free.

The fewer the number of morons that are here, the more likely it is to attract resonable, rational readers/posters.

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#118 Wax Man Riley
February 02 2011, 03:56PM
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Tapdog wrote:

Great we have a playoff wizard on a non playoff team.

Penner and Hemsky are really the same.. One can dominate at times in close and the other from the perimeter! Neither one is consistant thru the year! Both will get you 60-75 points.

We have the talented young wingers now we need a #1 centre who can win a draw and a legit #2 dman and for heavans sake a real bottom 6 that can turn the tide in a game!

There is a lot of potentail talent in the organization who need to see some minutes the rest of the way this year!

Would anyone make a Penner/Cogs to Buffalo for a Stafford/Gaustad/#2 pick?

That would solidify your RW and open up the opportunity to move Hemsky in a deal to get you a dman or center? Then you draft the one you do not get!

I did say that Hemsky could be a playoff wizard. A player that can be very good and very intense for an intense stretch of hockey. That kind of player could be useful on this team. I know that we are not a playoff team, but the plan is that in a year or 2 we will be. Hopefully in 3 the Oil will be able to seriously compete.

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#119 rubbertrout
February 02 2011, 04:56PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Good to see Robin, part of what makes this site great is that it is (relatively) troll free.

The fewer the number of morons that are here, the more likely it is to attract resonable, rational readers/posters.

Hold on OB1, I don't want there to be any kind of standard upheld here that makes it impossible for me to post anymore.

I don't know if "reasonable" or "rational" are really in my wheelhouse.

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#120 Ender
February 02 2011, 05:17PM
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@rubbertrout

Trust me, RT, we welcome any and all comments you care to bring. While 'rational' might be going a little far (and who wants jeanshorts/baggedmilk banned over a technicality like that anyway?) you're certainly reasonable, and amusing to boot. Really. Whether you admit to it or not.

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#121 michael
February 02 2011, 06:43PM
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Boston is going to shut down Savard for the season and perhaps he is done as an NHL player. The Boston Bruins may come knocking sooner than later. Penner would fit well into the Eastern Conference. Boston will have to counter whatever Montreal is going to do. Jason Arnott? If Boston has any Cup desires it will have be sooner than later.That Toronto pick is getting later and later into the first round. It still may be a top 10 pick but I can't see it being a lottery pick. Burke will sell his soul to ensure that that does not happen. One of Penner or Hemsky will have to go. Hemsky's contract makes him very desirable. Would Boston give up thier 2 first round picks to get a Hemsky? Penner to Pittsburgh is likely in my mind also. Crosby needs some size to play with. And Penner has proven he can rise to the occasion.If nobody moves it won't surprise me eithet. Tambo seems willing to wait till JULY 1st to deal from strength.

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#122 Jonathan Willis
February 02 2011, 06:47PM
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There is almost no chance at all that Boston moves that pick.

It's a pipedream.

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#123 Randall Shermer
February 03 2011, 02:22AM
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You know, people are allowed to not like Lowetide's articles, right? The way people react here is like someone stole grandpa's cane. I rather doubt Lowetide's about to turn in his keys to the Internet just yet.

I mean, I don't like that B D S M's writing when he tore into Lowetide. Waste of time, that posting was. Don't much like the acronym name either. I'm sure he's a nice guy and all, but one of the reasons I come here is to read the witty and informative replies of guys like Steve Smith. His comments are way more informative.

Any road...not sure why I'm taking the time to winge on aimlessly that on a public forum. I mean, I could just skip over his comments, right? Maybe I just like hearing the sound of my own voice? Maybe I'm so full of myself I think its a grand idea to comment on how little I think about such comments? Its like I'm assuming anyone actually cares what I think!

One thing is for sure: there's no way I'd post a critique like that to incite a flame war.

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#124 Ryan2
February 03 2011, 01:10PM
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@ Lowetide - One comment that puzzles me a bit above is that the draft is now being thought of as "deep". I thought the consensus is/was that this year is weak on impact players?

I would consider last year to be a deeper draft in that you had some solid talent still on the board after the top 10 picks. This year seems to be a draft for stocking up on 2nd and 3rd line talent, not necessarily 1st liners. I would liken it more to the year we grabbed Sam Gagner than last season - weak at the top end but some decent depth players in the first round.

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#125 Charlie
February 03 2011, 07:54PM
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Jones is rad, I hope they don't trade him for a pick that might be as good as... Jones?

I follow the dude on Twitter - he's a beauty. Loves the team, loves the city, loves being an Oiler. If there's one bottom-6 forward the OIl hold on to, I sure hope it's him.

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