The Gods Must be Crazy (Trade Deadline Primer #2)
Lowetide
February 01 2011 06:11PM
I had a trade deadline post ready to go tonight, but Zack Stortini was part of it. Oh well. I'll include him in anyway, as there's a chance he'll be in the organization come the deadline. When it comes to this deadline, the Oilers are extremely likely to do the same thing they did a year ago: flush blue.
As we discussed in the first trade deadline primer (found here), the Oilers traded four defensemen while acquiring two one year ago. Let's list the deals again:
- March 1: D Denis Grebeshkov to Nashville for their 2nd rd pick. Stu MacGregor turned that into Curtis Hamilton.
- March 2: D Cody Wild to Boston for F Matt Marquardt.
- March 3: D Lubo Visnovsky to Anaheim for D Ryan Whitney and a 6th rd pick in 2010. MBS turned that selection into Brandon Davidson.
- March 3: D Steve Staios to Calgary for D Aaron Johnson and 2011 3rd rd pick.
The Oilers dealt Grebeshkov and Staios for picks, Wild for a depth minor leaguer and made an actual hockey trade with Anaheim. One of the things that always surprises me at the deadline is the enormous value veteran defensemen hold. We watch them all season and know their every weakness, but the fact remains that smart hockey men stockpile them every deadline. Why? A couple of reasons: young defensemen can kill you when the games get tight, and defensemen get hurt a lot. Remember when the Oilers dealt for Tarnstrom and Spacek near the deadline 2006? They needed them for the run, and that's for sure.
Nothing more losery than blogging about trades that haven't happened yet, but I think there's a chance Steve Tambellini pulls the trigger on a couple of surprising deals. From what we read this is a deep draft and we also know that the organization has done well by adding bullets for Stu (Magnificent Bastard) MacGregor's gun. With that in mind, here's my list (from most to least valuable) and a guess at the return. Feel free to disagree, I'm certainly no expert on the subject of trades.
UNLIKELY TO MOVE
- Dustin Penner: If the Oilers are convinced Penner won't sign for a good number, this might be the time to deal him. Penner is having a good season, he's healthy and it isn't beyond reasonable for another team to believe he can help them go deep this spring. Return: A very good young player in his entry level contract or an outstanding prospect, plus a pick.
- Ales Hemsky: Because of the injuries, I think 83's value may be a little lower than Penner's this year. It's a good reason to keep him, but the other consideration is that he may have extreme value for a team looking for exactly this player type (and the LA Kings are a candidate). Return: Same as Penner's, perhaps a little less due to injury concerns.
AVAILABLE FOR THE RIGHT RETURN
- Ladislav Smid: With the development of both Peckham and Petry, Smid once again finds himself on the outskirts of the top 4D in Edmonton. A team looking for a veteran will like his youth, his wheels and his toughness after the whistle. He's inconsistent, but healthy and at the very least should be a dependable addition to any blueline for years to come. Return: A high 2nd rd pick, say 35-50.
- Andrew Cogliano: Speedster has improved his play this season and gained the coach's confidence in several areas. An NHL team looking for some secondary scoring and perhaps an extra hand on the PK might make the investment. Return: Oilers would probably be better off getting a bullet for Stu in return, as they have a plethora of young forwards pushing for playing time.
- Ryan Jones: Has a shot at 20 goals and plays with a lot of energy. A team looking for some scoring punch without having to give up a lot for him might see Jones as a solid option. Return: A pick somewhere in the top 100, say late 2nd or early 3rd rd selection.
AVAILABLE
- Kurtis Foster: Despite having a poor season in Edmonton, his 5x4 resume is obvious and he's 3-5-8 on a terrible PP in Edmonton. A team looking for an inexpensive option for that position (PP shooter) might see Foster as an attractive option. Return: Because there's another year on the contract, I'll say a mid-to-late 3rd rd selection.
- Jim Vandermeer: Laugh all you want, I bet he gets a solid return. Vandermeer is exactly the kind of plodding defender that NHL teams grab at the deadline. Why? He's a free agent, he can sit for weeks without bitching and you can insert him into the lineup at a moment's notice and pretty much know what you'll get. That has value. Return: Identical to the Foster return, mid-to-late 3rd rd selection.
Really, really available
- Zack Stortini: Seems ridiculous now, but this is where I slotted him and there's no sense changing it now. I think Stortini might have some value to a team looking for a low event winger with some size who can play a few minutes a night and add some grit. I understand he doesn't belong on the list and may not be an Oiler tomorrow, but suspect he has some value. ST would have shopped him, so there's not likely a lot of interest now. But, things can change in a couple of weeks. Return: A pick in the 130-140 range.
- Martin Gerber: Minor leaguer is nice insurance for an NHL team with health or performance issues at the NHL level. Return: A pick in the 170-180 range.
- Gilbert Brule: He's falling so quickly I'm not sure he's going to play again this season. Rumors about flu and other ailments remind some of us of the "Raffi Torres is missing" period where no one even bothered to ask about the rugged LW. Return: A late round pick. Seriously.
One more deadline update before Feb 28.
A man says things face to face. A person cutting up people behind a keyboard, from an anonymous location, behind a fictional name, is much, much less than a man in my eyes.
LT's blogs are enjoyed by many. They promote discussion.
We are assuming all UFAs will never sign here again? Are UFAs the only way to do anything in the summer?
Holy crap man. My guess is that Jones will be willing to sign here, unless he wants a 500k-1mil overpayment, then find a way to get it done.
This summer they are obviously making picks, they should be moving Surray in the summer (thats really the only way) they should be able to sign one or two free agents like they do every summer, and they should be able to make a trade or two one would hope.
I think if Penner or Hemsky get moved at all it is this summer. But wait, we HAVE to trade them soon because god knows they are going to be UFAs and are going to be "the definition of CANT BE KEPT MOVING FORWARD"
Be better yourself.
I appreciate your honesty, and I see your point of view. If you're reading my posts there won't be any breaking news or anything like it.
I offer my opinion as a fan, and not everyone is going to enjoy it. I can say that in my time at ON that a request has been made for me to post a game day thread twice. Both times it was a request from Jason Gregor.
I'm having a blast posting here, but your idea of guest writers is a good one and I'll pass it along. My contract with ON is for two years, and then we'll review.
I encourage you to make your views known to them (as you have here) as it will no doubt have some impact come renewal time.
All the best.
@Lowetide
Don't let aholes and dbags effect you or your decision to continue writing here going forward (not saying you have, just saying don't). As a relatively new reader to ON I've found your articles both entertaining and throught provoking. If others dont, they can go read other articles. Can't win em all.
The thing that gets me is he thinks so highly of his opinion that he felt we all just had to hear it.
Edit: I get the whole point of a place like this having reader response is about giving opinions. But there is a time and place.
Oilers Nation is growing rapidly and the people who run the joint have to decide on the quality of the prose in order to keep that train rolling.
That may or may not mean addition by subtraction but I'm certainly staying until they close my account. :-)
@Archaeologuy
Agreed, but only if Oil cannot re-up contract before TDD
Props just don't do this post justice LT. The patience, humility and poise that it too to respond in such a manner were not lost on me or others (I hope). You've willingly placed yourself in the public eye and in doing such opened yourself to praise as well as ridicule. You could have taken several roads when adressing that post and you chose the road less travelled. I applaud you, take that for whatever it is, if anything at all.
@Aleslav Smidsky
H B M W - perhaps you simply don't have the capacity to 'get it'. I see the same thing a lot with people who write off great film makers and writers, or people who write off other cultures and places as 'stupid'. It comes down to a narrow set of parameters based upon your own limitations to comprehend and appreciate diverse approaches to writing.
LT's own site attracts a lot of very established individuals both in terms of hockey knowledge and 'overachievers' in the real world. I suspect that many are very discretionary in what they spend their time reading, and they choose to read LT.
LT is one of my favourite Oilogosphere writers and part of what makes him such a pleasure to converse with is he never gets reactionary.
Not sure if HBMW has had some posts deleted, but if not, some of you posting in this thread defending LT should take notes. All HBMW did was share an opinion, an opinion s/he has a right to.
S/he wasn't overly offensive (especially compared to some of the other junk posted under the BMW ad)and was relatively clear about what s/he liked/disliked about LT's work.
Christ, let a guy have a dissenting opinion before piling on him like s/he jumped your little brother or something.
ANYWAYS, as other posters have mentioned, I don't see the value in getting rid of Jones. It seems like he enjoys playing here and would sign a market value contract. Obviously if he's told management he will not re-sign or if he's asking for the moon, get rid of him for anything you can get. But otherwise, why not hold on to a guy who can play in the bottom 6?
HBMW Is someone forcing you to read lowetide's columns? If you don't like them, DON'T READ THE DAMN THINGS!!!
His writing has a helluva lot more insight and thought than yours.
LT, you're my guy! Extremely classy response to that Knob who didn't understand the purpose of the article. Unfortunately the Lame and Drooling have opinions too.
@Aleslav Smidsky
Lucky for you, internet publishing is free and easy, so there's nothing stopping you from writing an interesting hockey blog. I'll set it up for you if you'd like.
Do you go to equestrian blogs and tell them that they're boring and that no one cares what they think about horseback rideing?
I didn't read this article looksing for insider facts, I wanted informed discussion, like I'd have with my buddies if I still lived in Edmonton. I'm happy with the results.
I'm not a Foster fan, but I think his trade value is even lower than his real value, so I say keep him. If he spends the next years a a fifth defenceman and pp guy, I think that's worth a thrid round draft pick. Of course this changes is Plante or Petry etc. make the leap, but they haven't.
You're too soft on these punks, LT. Brownlee keeps them in line through abuse and humiliation. It proves to be very effective.
You can wear a velvet glove, but make sure it's covering an iron fist.
For the record:
HansBaurMesserschmittWatson has been banned here previously for his generally abusive tone. Given H B M W's comments and username, I don't think it's a leap to conclude they're the same person. I'd advise people not to take him too seriously.
Good article, Lowetide. Nice set-up piece for the next three weeks. A questions/points...
- Penner: What are the chances of him actually re-signing with the Oil? My thoughts are there’s no way he’s re-signing in another Edmonton (or Canadian) fishbowl. He’s headed for a market that’s also got MLB, NFL and NBA teams.
- Ales Hemsky. I just can’t bring myself to trading that much skill away, simply because he helps provide some tangible value for a ticket. When you go to a game, and Hemsky’s dancin’, you’re gonna see something you won’t see anywhere else.
- Penner/Hemsky: That said, these guys are both wingers and I can already think of one contending team that’s been in desperate need of a winger of any kind for years – Pittsburgh. I’d have to believe that they’d be interested, if the price was right. One of these days, the Pens are gonna need to find Sidney a winger and either of these guys would fit the bill.
- Brule: Yeah, his disappearance from the lineup is starting to turn into an episode of The X-Files. In a way, though, it’s making the progress of the other kids somewhat easier – with him out of the lineup for this extended period, it’s un-complicating things a bit. But, I still think we gotta call Mulder and Scully.
- The next round of prospects: Hamilton, Marincin, etc. I know we all think Stu Macgregor has turned things around with the last few drafts, but I humbly suggest caution with some of the other kids who are in the system. They’ve had breakthrough junior seasons, yes, but that’s about it. I’m thinking that we should just judge Stu based on his prospects who are playing NHL minutes rather than the second- and third-rounders who are thriving in Prince George and Saskatoon.
I dont know why you would want to trade Jones...it makes zero sense to me.
LT- I sincerely hope you are right that 27 and 83 are unlikely to move. This team badly needs both Penner and Hemsky. They're both 27 and in or entering their hockey prime. Sure Hemsky is getting hurt and may fall off a cliff. He may also score 450 points the next 5 years with his talent and Hall skating with him. Either way every effort has to be made to sign the guys ST knows are good.
Hall, Eberle, MPS, Omark, and Petry are rookie while Chorney, Reddox, and Peckham are pretty much rookies. Sure they are good, but that 40% of the team just starting out. If 27 and 83 are out for prospects, that will leave Horcoff and leading a posse up front all under 25. They won't win for years and we'll all be calling for veterans in their prime and offering up Eberle. Those two guys are worth more to the Oilers than they are to every other team and should not be traded unless it is a huge overpay coming back.
I fear that Jones will go, but there again it should only be for an overpay coming back. Otherwise we'll spend years hoping our 3rd round pick eventually develops into someone like...Ryan Jones! Stortini was a 3rd rounder. Tambi should just sign Jones, it is simpler and the Barons are going to be full soon.
Also LT, I'm impressed but not surprised that you've taken the high road again with the guys that lurk behind their anonymity and toss grenades at you. When I grow up, I hope to have your temperament. I'm 43.
First of all, sir, you said his articles never hold no weight and usually make no sense or have a purpose. If they 'never' do then that means they do. Something I'd have thought you would have learned in grade two or three...I'm not sure why you didn't then and I'm not sure why you would write this entire offensive reply now.
Saying the people in charge only ask him for articles when they can't think of anything else to write for that day, and then offering up his spot should be for guest writers - or someone else instead, is very disrespectful. To then add that he knew that not everyone would like that nonsense when he wrote it is highly offensive to the writer of this article.
Your statement of "not trying to hate on you, just being honest" is a lie, pure and simple. That is all your article is doing, and adding one line that states the contrary to that does not make it true. The only reason you wrote it was to let LT know you despise his writing and his article. It is offensive and very, very abusive.
I appreciate LT's post, and as for those posts I don't enjoy as much I either pass over, or don't comment on. I don't feel the need to tell them how horrible they are. I'd suggest the same tact for you in the future.
I have a recommendation to ON writers and advisors on this site; get this guy banned permanently. I cannot and will not stand for our writers being abused here.
Time for Oilers to move towards a new core with size and NHL accountability to compliment more than just hope from drafteees ! How about a blockbuster trade with Ottawa for Spezza , Phillips , Kelly and / and or Fisher ? Sure it might cost us Penner , Hemsky and more in compensation , but we would finally start addressing some of our worst voids over the last couple of years ? What are the chances Penner and or Hemsky will want to remain here under present team going into next season ?
I really don't think you can move Penner unless you get someone in return who also has size. The team is small enough as it is. I totally understand the argument for moving Jones while his value is high but I have to say I sure have enjoyed watching his play in the last while. I definitely wouldn't mind him sticking around. I think a good trade option right now is some type of package involving a few of our smaller/expendable forwards (i.e. cogs, brule etc...). We seem to have an abundance and maybe a team looking for additional speed and secondary scoring would bite.
Thought we could use a little poetry to lighten the mood here on gameday.
Give a man a fish and you'll feed him for a day, beat a man with a fish and he'll stop asking you for food.
Dude. He knows that. The only intent from guys like this is to get some attention, which for the most part they are lacking in the outside ("real") world. Textbook troll here folks.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMEe7JqBgvg
Stortini cleared waivers as per Rishaug.
OKC, here he comes!
F'n Chrysler plant, here Stortini comes!
I think my favourite part of this thread is that you have people saying "Boy, it turns out that we really should have moved Brule last summer when his value was high. Mea culpa." immediately followed by people saying "Trade Ryan Jones? Are you crazy?"
It's worth putting into perspective that all the fuss over Stortini and waivers is over a player who has dressed for 32 games, played little when dressed, produced 4 assists and has lost a bunch of fights. His trip on the waiver wire has barely been noted on TSN.
I think it's reasonable to assume that the coaches told Zach at some point what they want out of him or what he needs to do to be in the lineup. He hasn't been able to meet their requirements. He seems like a great guy, but if his career is in fact done, he's 25 and earned about $1.7M - seems like a win for a 3rd round pick who did everything he could with the talent he has.
@Westcoastoil
Edit: Briefly broke my pledge not to comment here in earnest anymore. This comment intentionally left blank.
100%
Yeah, good point. Plus, he can play in the minors and earn some nice coin down there. It ain't over for Storts yet.
I wish him well.
Great we have a playoff wizard on a non playoff team.
Penner and Hemsky are really the same.. One can dominate at times in close and the other from the perimeter! Neither one is consistant thru the year! Both will get you 60-75 points.
We have the talented young wingers now we need a #1 centre who can win a draw and a legit #2 dman and for heavans sake a real bottom 6 that can turn the tide in a game!
There is a lot of potentail talent in the organization who need to see some minutes the rest of the way this year!
Would anyone make a Penner/Cogs to Buffalo for a Stafford/Gaustad/#2 pick?
That would solidify your RW and open up the opportunity to move Hemsky in a deal to get you a dman or center? Then you draft the one you do not get!
Keep the trade primers coming, Lowetide... interesting stuff, as always!
Personally, I would love to see Schenn come here even if we need to give more than Hemsky (would Brule seal the deal?) I know he has little value now but his potential is through the roof. You've got to give up something to get something, though, and I want Schenn as our center if that's possible.
Penner/Cogs to Buffalo for a Stafford/Gaustad/#2?
Sure, I guess...
But is that enough coming back?
Don't know anything about Gaustad, but Stafford looks like a 30-40 point guy, at best. Yes, we all remember that disastrous home game against the Sabres last year (or year before?) when Stafford lit the Oilers up, but is he really that good?
I'm not making a statement with that question ... I'm asking because I really don't know.
I've always enjoyed reading LT's blogs. But I also enjoy reading Wayne's, so I don't know what that says.
LT - the way you responded with class and dignity to that post was great. I'm a fan forever now.
Hemsky/Penner - Assuming we can only keep one of them long term, is there anyway we can get Staal out of Pit for the both of them?
The real question is if Tambo has the balls and the brains to make some deals to improve this team going forward and to provide a better working and growing environment for our emerging talent. I think the Oil are going to need a new GM.
@The Beaker
Ok, I may have been harsher than necessary this morning. It is a fictional world where Jones has signed a contract extension with the Oilers. It hasn't happened yet. Until it does there is no reason to believe he wants to be here.
I know lots of people don't like to put too much emphasis on +/- but I heard someone make a comment about Kessel bing 3rd worst in the league so I looked at the standings. I was surprised to see that while Gilbert is worst on the team with -13, there are still 29 players in the leagure worse than him. I was kind of expecting some oilers to be further down the list. Just an observation.
I find it very frustrating that you continuously act like extending the guy isn't an option.
Is the return value there? Good question. Gaustad is 6'5" and 220lbs and is a legit 3rd line Centre. He can play it tough and get you some points with decent wingers and you better sit down for this one... He can win faceoffs! 59.3% this year.
Stafford plays a lot like Penner but is 23 and has the same amount of goals this year and his ppg is better so far as well. Like Penner he has size and can play anywhere from the first line to the third line and produce. Really a younger version of Penner but hopefully being younger, a team might be able to get him to play a little tougher? I think he could be better than Penner.
As for the pick maybe the Oil can toss in a third and up Buffalo's to a first? Hey all you can do is ask, right?
While I am tossing out trade senarios that would not happen, I might as well have some fun with this one too! Hemsky/Smid/Calgary's 3rd (Staios deal) for Schenn/Teubert/Poni
Sorry you have to take back Poni to keep the cap good for them and beside it is only until the end of the season. Hey, Poni is big... Doesn't hit to save his life but he is big:)
Tencer says that Re-Khab is starting tonight.
Ridiculous.
What?
Ridiculous.
Come on Renney, come up for air already!
Wow!
Condolences to Tom Renney on the loss of his father today. Oilers win this for Tom this evening.
Renney's father apparently passed away last night, so we should maybe tone down the criticism of him for at least a couple of days. Not that he reads ON, I'm sure, but still.
Gotta save Dubey for the playoffs.
Edit. Prayers and sympathies to the Renney family.
Maybe ON should set up a condolences article/post where the readers could wish Tom and his family well?
just a thought, we bash the players enough as fans but....their is hockey and then there is real life.
@Lowetide
I did not mean to disrespect you as a man, and I don't think I did.
All I was commenting on was your writing under Lowetide. Just like you, I am entitled to my opinion. I know you have a good following on people who like your writing, but you also have a lot of PRs. If you go through the comments above you will be able to tell who these people are. Simpletons who insulted me for simply stating my opinion which doesn't agree with them or with the opinions they are told to have.
When people don't think for them selves it causes a lot of confusion. Take for example tough guy Oilcruzer there, he thinks me not liking your article is a knock on you as a man, so he gives his rusty two cents about nothing to do with nothing. A classic case of PR.
I do not understand how these PRs get offended more than the man I intended my comments towards, poor sheep.
Once again Lowetide, I do not think I offened your person or you as a man. I was stating my opinion on the last few articles you have wrote. You must understand we live in a world of billions of people and not everyone has the same opinion and sometimes people are going to have to agree to disagree. Most of these clowns are sheep dressed in wolves clothing trying to fit in, these PRs will never know their place.
great article again, LT.
I do think Brule needs to get the hell out of dodge. Some people seem to be strongly attached to the 37 point season he had last year...
Personally, I think we can only have room for one player of his nature on the team (i.e. small, average tallent, tries hard but is often just rubbed off the puck too easily) and Cogs might fit the bill better than he does.
I also do think that JDD should be considered moveable since we'll have Roy (and hopefully we draft Conz.. haha).
Also, maybe i'm the only one on here who strongly dislikes Gilbert... but I would LOVE a defenseman who knows how to HIT and HURT