Trade Rumors Heating Up

Lowetide
February 06 2011 08:01AM

This is Chris Phillips. He's rumored to be heading to the Edmonton Oilers. It is one of many rumors out in the ether that could impact the town team.

Mike Brophy and John Shannon were on Sportsnet last night and suggested one of the current rumors has Dustin Penner heading to Ottawa in a deal for Chris Phillips. Phillips is a UFA, so one imagines that this would be for a signed Phillips, or that it might be part of a bigger deal (perhaps involving a third team).

Chris Phillips? He's making $3.5M and is in fact a free agent at the end of the season. He's a western kid, so the club might feel they could sign him and Phillips certainly has the reputation for being an effective shutdown player. He would have spent a lot of time mentoring young Sens blue, so that would be good news for kids like Jeff Petry.

Question: Is Phillips a good NHL defenseman at this stage of his career? Here's what we know:

  • Phillips plays the toughest opposition Ottawa faces and it isn't close. Source (Desjardins) ishere.
  • Phillips is doing it with mid-level help from the Ottawa roster, which means with very little help at all. The 10-11 Senators are not the 77 Habs.
  • Phillips is a team worst -26 on a team that is currently -48 on the season (at evens). If the club played three pairings evenly at equal strength, his expected minus would be -16. He is playing tougher opponents (as noted above) so the plus minus numbers--while ugly--makes him somewhat innocent (with an explanation).

Other rumors have the Preds hot for Hemsky (Matheson has it here) and the Penguins may come calling with the news that Evgeny Malkin's season is likely over.

My own hope is that the club keeps both Penner and Hemsky. However, I can also see the wisdom in acquiring a veteran, signed defenseman to add to the current group of Whitney and Gibert. Those three men could anchor the blue and help along Peckham and Petry. Ladislav Smid's future may be covered in the Matty article I linked to above.

I've been saying for awhile that this deadline is going to be interesting. Steve Tambellini is open for business at the trade deadline and then in summer, and those appear to be his only windows. With that kind of restriction, he needs to be very aggressive.

Dustin Penner to Ottawa for a signed Chris Phillips qualifies as very aggressive.

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#51 :0
February 06 2011, 10:08AM
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Phillips is ottawas vandermeer so no way. Unless we get ottawas first(which i doubt). Even rundblad and cowen dont make that a deal. Ottawas probably not gonna resign phillips anyway: we would be so screwed with this trade.Honestly i see penner a bruin for torontos pick and an overpayed player and prospect

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#52 srcain
February 06 2011, 10:13AM
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ST needs to talk with both penner and hemmer and find out if either one of them would even like to resign here when their contracts are up. If they say 'no' or 'maybe', then obviously they need to be traded for a return of some sort. Hopefully if thats the case, it isnt made public so ST can at least try and deal them from a position of strength. Does anyone know if ST has done this yet or intends to?

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#53 Dutchscooter
February 06 2011, 10:20AM
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@jake

Problem with Ottawa is that no one in management is probably going to have a job after April. So does Eugene Melnyk let Murray fire sale the place, then fire his butt??

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#55 m_kennedy13
February 06 2011, 10:23AM
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@ srcain

If we knew that ST had done that or intended to then it would be public. That would mean he didn't do what we wanted him to. Lose lose for him, we either A. Assume he's being useless and not asking if his players plan to stay, or B. it comes public he talked to them and they both plan on going UFA in 2012, and we kill him for letting it get out. I doubt we see extensions for these two before the summer.

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#56 DBO
February 06 2011, 10:28AM
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LT: is Brayden Schenn enough of a return for Hemsky? Would we be happy with that return, therefore allowing us to draft Larsson. That is still a futures deal, since Schenn can't be expected to b an immediate impact player, however it does fit the 2-3 model we are seemingly following. Reminiscent of the Nieuwendyk for Iginal trade that set the Flames up for the future.

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#57 speeds
February 06 2011, 10:32AM
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Doesn't happen often, but this is one time I'm in disagreement with you LT.

To me, if they are making a "hockey trade", it's more likely we'll see it at the draft/early July when everyone is able to juggle their rosters more freely.

I think Hemsky/Penner are more likely to move at the deadline if EDM is looking for futures in return; those are the types of deals that are made at the deadline, and those are the teams motivated to trade for Penner and Hemsky at this time. I'm not sure I agree with the 20-30 pick range either - that depends who you trade with. There are still, what, 21-23 teams in the playoff race?

Depending who you trade Hemsky/Penner to, that pick could well be in the 8-14 range. And, further to that, because Hemsky/Penner's deal extends into next season, I think it's possible the teams that are borderline playoff contenders are more willing to move their first for Hemsky/Penner than for a traditional rental, because they would also have him for next season.

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#58 godot10
February 06 2011, 10:37AM
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If Phillips to Edmonton and Penner to Ottawa is being talked about, it could also be part of a three-way with LA...

Spezza-->LA Penner +prospects from LA & Edm-->Ott Phillips+prospects from LA & Ott-->Edm

Phillips currently has a no-move till the end of the year. To agree to come to Edmonton, that would suggest that he would have agreed to a new contract with the Oilers,

or why would he agree to be trade to the Oilers rather than insist on a Stanley Cup contender.

It could also be part of a three-way with Nashville.

Fisher-->Nashville Penner+prospects-->Ott Phillips+prospects-->Edm

Involving Edmonton in a three-way between a contender and Ottawa, allows the contender to not trade an actual player off of their roster to Ottawa...they can use Penner from Edmonton as the actual player, and fill the rest of the deal with prospects.

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#59 Captain Obvious
February 06 2011, 10:37AM
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Goligoski is the kind of guy we should be talking about as the centrepiece of a deal.

Getting an NHL quality defencemen with offensive upside is the starting point of the conversation. Not an aging mediocre defense first player.

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#60 Racki
February 06 2011, 10:39AM
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DBO wrote:

LT: is Brayden Schenn enough of a return for Hemsky? Would we be happy with that return, therefore allowing us to draft Larsson. That is still a futures deal, since Schenn can't be expected to b an immediate impact player, however it does fit the 2-3 model we are seemingly following. Reminiscent of the Nieuwendyk for Iginal trade that set the Flames up for the future.

I think Schenn is definitely good return for Hemsky. We get a centerman with decent size. Depending on where you look, I see him as 6' to 6'2", and 193lbs. He wouldn't make an immediate impact, no, but he'd be on pace with the rest of our players, you would think.. maybe a year behind, but that's fine.

That said, I'm not sure how big of a hurry the Kings are in to give up Schenn, even for Hemsky. But that's where the "immediate impact" is maybe a factor.. the Kings need it, we don't.

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#61 Ducey
February 06 2011, 10:49AM
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Trading Penner/ Hemskyfor a 32 yr old defenseman like Phillips would be a mistake.

Dmen tend to run out of steam in their thirties and Phillips has a lot of miles on the odometer. His plus minus has gotten worse each year for four years.

He is part of the problem in OTT. Within a year he would be part of the problem here.

Thankfully, he would likely refuse to sign with the Oilers before being traded. I expect he'd want to win a Cup.

I'd rather the Oilers trade for a few ready C and D prospects and draft picks.

NAS 1st rounder plus Austin Watson?

Colin Wilson would solve the Oilers 1st line C problem but he is likely worth more than Penner or Hemsky. Maybe Gagner and Penner for Wilson, a 1st and Roussel?

OTT doesn't really have any prospects although they seem to be still after Penner. Maybe (it seems unlikely) they would trade their 1st for him?

Wilson may be untouchable but prospects who are about to graduate are the kind of guys Tambo needs to target.

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#63 The Other John
February 06 2011, 10:56AM
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Wonder if Matheson's article means that the Oil have finally leaked word to selected MSM media that they are serious about moving one or both of Hemsky and Penner. Hence the "message"that the Oil will move their best assets

If we could get Ryan Johanneson from Columbus that would be my target. We might not even get that good a deal. But we would have the large offensively talented centre moving forward. At this point Columbus must be desperate to make the playoffs and Howson must be desperate to keep his job. To do it, though, we have to move NOW before Columbus is out of playoff fight

Would be fine with Chris Phillips because he would be a good bridge til some of our young kids develop and is a shutdown guy. Would OTT take Smid and Cogs instead of Penner for Phillips

Right now we are the only seller in marketplace. Once other sellers hit market, we lose any premium we might be able to extract now

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#64 a lg dubl dubl
February 06 2011, 11:08AM
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Watching the Pens/Caps game, Washington officially have the most annoying siren after a goal EVER

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#65 godot10
February 06 2011, 11:14AM
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Phillips has a NMC. The only way he agrees to a trade to Edmonton rather than a Stanley Cup contender is with a signed 3 year @ $4 million per contract with a NMC.

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#66 speeds
February 06 2011, 11:15AM
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Lowetide wrote:

Disagreeing with me is probably a solid bet. :-)

I see your point, but don't think the Oilers can give up either player for futures. If they do nothing at all at the deadline the Oilers will still have 2/3's of a pretty damn good line for next year.

Put it this way: IF they trade one or both for futures, we can start looking at the 2012 draft.

I'm not endorsing moving either Hemsky or Penner if they are willing to re-sign; I'm just saying that IF they move at the deadline I'd be really surprised if it isn't a futures type deal.

I prefer re-signing both players, and if it turns out 2 years from now that you have too many good players that command too much money, well, worry about that in the future.

The Oilers have to be careful about waiting too long to turn this around. If you finish bottom 5 again next year, all of a sudden you might be losing Hemsky and Penner to UFA, all your kids are about to get paid, Whitney and Gagner would be two years from UFA and in the same situation EDM is in now with Hemsky and Penner where you're not sure what to do, and the perpetual re-build could be in effect.

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#67 Archaeologuy
February 06 2011, 11:20AM
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@godot10

I'm thinking it will take more than 4 million to convince a guy to give up his first opportunity at Free Agency to sign with the worst team in the league.

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#68 m_kennedy13
February 06 2011, 11:21AM
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@ LT

Way ahead of you on the looking at 2012 draft. Nail Yakupov, he's 14 games behind Taylor Hall at the same age yet already has more goals (just one right now), on one of the worst teams in the OHL. Guy is just an unreal talent, he's going to be the next best thing from Russia. Another small winger though...

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#69 IHeartHemsky
February 06 2011, 11:21AM
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I would be disappointed at the Penner for Phillips trade..IMO.

Maybe it is me overvaluing Penner, but to a cup contending team...his "big body" can become a huge asset in the playoffs...see Franzen, Holmstrom & Fuglin.

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#70 OilFan
February 06 2011, 11:21AM
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@Archaeologuy

Yeah good point but Phillips is no upgrade to Vandermeer. Aren't Penner and Hemsky signed through next season ? Why ruch the trade ?

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#71 jake
February 06 2011, 11:39AM
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Someone correct me if I am wrong, but you aren't permitted to extend a player before the July 1 leading into his final year of an active contract. (Couple posters mentioned 83 and 27 aren't yet signed and the potential meaning of that)

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#72 theoil
February 06 2011, 11:40AM
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How about Penner-Smid-Cogliano for Phillips and Fisher.. That would be a hockey trade of some value for both teams

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#74 Archaeologuy
February 06 2011, 11:43AM
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@OilFan

No rush at all, especially if the return is a stay at home dman in his thirties

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#75 Chris.
February 06 2011, 11:50AM
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I wonder if this is the kind of rumor that is leaked on purpose to prepare Oiler fans for the fact that Penner won't garner the kind of return they expect. Reading between the lines: Penner won't be resigning. (Thank you Kevein Lowe for the bump in payscale... but I'm outta here)

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#76 Woodguy
February 06 2011, 11:54AM
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So LT, if 83 gets moved are you going to title the post "Sail on Hull Olympique", or the more Principe-esque "Ales doesn't live here anymore"

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#77 Rob...
February 06 2011, 11:58AM
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@Lowetide

~It was sad when the Duff for Underwood deal fell apart. I'd be amazed if Tambi managed a Welch for Underwood deal. he might get GM of the Year for pulling that off.~

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#79 owenemma
February 06 2011, 12:42PM
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I played hockey with Chris Phillips when I was a kid. He is from Fort McMurray and his parents still live here and the rest of his family is in Calgary. Phillips is only 32 most d-men stay solid until their mid 30's. I think this would be a good pick-up but it will make more senses as a multi-player deal. On a side note, Chris's dad has had some health issues over the last few years and he might want to be closer to his family.

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#80 BarryS
February 06 2011, 12:43PM
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Seems to me this trading season will turn on whether or not Sid the Kid really is gone the season with concusion problems. Also Malkin is gone for the season, is he not? The Pens might stay right out of the market if two best players gone. Not likely to find adequate replacements since they haven't for their other shortages. As things stack up, no Pens may mean less need for others to make serious changes.

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#81 Hax
February 06 2011, 12:50PM
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In a rebuild don't you usually trade for potential in a younger player or picks. Penner for Phillips would be a horrible trade.

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#82 kawi460
February 06 2011, 12:54PM
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The Oil should make an offer for Malkin, now that he's hurt his value might have decreased a tad, you never know GM's do desperate things at desperate times, Penner/Hemsky/2nd/3rd, for Malkin

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#83 Chris.
February 06 2011, 12:58PM
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@Eddie Shore

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deadpan

Read between the lines.

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#84 misfit
February 06 2011, 01:02PM
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owenemma wrote:

I played hockey with Chris Phillips when I was a kid. He is from Fort McMurray and his parents still live here and the rest of his family is in Calgary. Phillips is only 32 most d-men stay solid until their mid 30's. I think this would be a good pick-up but it will make more senses as a multi-player deal. On a side note, Chris's dad has had some health issues over the last few years and he might want to be closer to his family.

What would make the most sense is trying to sign him as a free agent in the offseason instead of trading for him at all.

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#86 Captain Obvious
February 06 2011, 01:13PM
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It's pretty clear that fans don't know what they are talking about. In this thread we have someone who made an offer that they thought was outrageous in favour of the Oilers (Penner/Hemsky/2nd/3rd for Malkin) when in fact that would be a fanboy trade in favour of the Penguins. If Tambelline made that offer the Penguins would say yes immediately and without hesitation.

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#87 DBO
February 06 2011, 01:14PM
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Tambellini tried to make moves with Ottawa before, so it makes sense.

Would we be happy with this deal?

Fisher, Neil and Phillips

for

Penner, Cogs and Smid

Not a rebuilding kind of move, but he tried to sign Neil before, and Fisher is a perfect fit on the 3rd line. Not to mention both Neil and Fisher's deals run out the year we need to re-sign the kids. Ottawa wanted them before, gets them younger and cheaper. We get some vets who still have some years left, add some size and grit and get some PK help (Fisher and Phillips play a ton on the PK).

Not sure how I feel about that kind of move, but if you think MPS can play in Penner's spot next year and he won't re-sign, then maybe this move makes sense.

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#88 stevezie
February 06 2011, 01:18PM
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In Re: trading Omark, I agree that he is expendable, but how much of Paajarvi's recent improvement would we be sending away?

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#89 kawi460
February 06 2011, 01:22PM
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Captain Obvious wrote:

It's pretty clear that fans don't know what they are talking about. In this thread we have someone who made an offer that they thought was outrageous in favour of the Oilers (Penner/Hemsky/2nd/3rd for Malkin) when in fact that would be a fanboy trade in favour of the Penguins. If Tambelline made that offer the Penguins would say yes immediately and without hesitation.

You do know thats a pipe dream for the Oilers.... Malkin is a once in a generation player, he had 112 points a few years back. heck i would even throw in our first

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#90 Eddie Shore
February 06 2011, 01:22PM
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@Chris.

I suppose the humor is lost on me when it's repeated day after day after day.

In regards to the thread, I would be very disappointed if we traded for Chris Phillips. I would be even more disappointed if we traded Penner to get him.

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#91 kawi460
February 06 2011, 01:24PM
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agree

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#92 Eddie Shore
February 06 2011, 01:26PM
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Lowetide wrote:

The Oilers are probably thinking he won't come here if he hits the open market. If they get a chance to sign him before free agency, it might work (as it did with Chris Pronger).

I agree that it would be better to sign him without sending assets away, but the Oilers don't do well signing free agents who are in demand.

What kind of market do you think there will be for Chris Phillips? Reallistically, how many teams can take him on?

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#93 Captain Obvious
February 06 2011, 01:26PM
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kawi460 wrote:

You do know thats a pipe dream for the Oilers.... Malkin is a once in a generation player, he had 112 points a few years back. heck i would even throw in our first

You sir are on drugs. How many once in a generation players do you think there are?

Malkin isn't one of the top 20 forwards in the league. That trade would destroy the Oilers for a generation.

Not only is your trade idea horrible. It would be, and I say this without hyperbole, the worst trade in NHL history.

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#95 kawi460
February 06 2011, 01:30PM
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Hall/Malkin/Eberle

How would that destroy our team, I dought that the Pens would get rid of Malkin.

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#96 Crash
February 06 2011, 01:33PM
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Lowetide wrote:

I think so. Defensemen always have a higher value at the deadline and Phillips isn't old and doesn't have a long injury history. Plus he's been to a final recently.

I'm surprised the Oilers are apparently heavily interested, though. I understand they need a veteran D to add to Whitney and Gilbert but Phillips--in his walk year--is a curious choice.

Cmon LT, if the Oilers are truly heavily interested and you are the first I've heard say they are heavily interested....then you have to know that if Phillips would first, waive his NMC to come here then it's obvious to me that the trade would come with a contract extension.

There's no point in even bringing up this being his walk year unless the Oilers acquire him on the cheap.

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#97 a lg dubl dubl
February 06 2011, 01:35PM
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Would Murray be dumb enough to take Gilbert for Phillips? God I hope so lol

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#98 BUCK75
February 06 2011, 01:39PM
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RossCreekNation wrote:

What's this Penner for Phillips nonsense? Unless there's more to it, that would be terrible.

Maybe Ladi Smid for Phillips.

I TOTALLY agree.

Phillips would have more value to a team contending. The so called hockey experts on the hot stove last weekend said he would be a 4 or 5 on a good team. So he would be playing here top minutes & turn into another goat (Lupul) providing he was signed to continue playing here next year.

Just MO, but I cant see it happening; it would be a massive overpayment.

I don't know if I would be ready to give up on Omark, if Hemsky is gone he would get more icetime.

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#99 Chris.
February 06 2011, 01:39PM
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Eddie Shore wrote:

I suppose the humor is lost on me when it's repeated day after day after day.

In regards to the thread, I would be very disappointed if we traded for Chris Phillips. I would be even more disappointed if we traded Penner to get him.

Part of the daily grind of cheering for a last place team... and worse yet: being expected to cheer for your team to land in last place.

BTW, I totally agree with your assessment of a Phillips for Penner trade. Winning a trade is about leverage. Deadline deals should be about getting a contendor to overpay for an asset they think essential for a cup run... Last time I checked, Ottawa wasn't a contender.

I'd rather see Tambellini target a financially desperate team this summer for an experienced vetran D... He could maybe snag some quality for something as inexpensive as a late, late round pick and the corresponding cap relief...

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#100 DangerMan
February 06 2011, 01:41PM
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This deal has a lot of ifs to make it even worthy. I'm not a big fan of Phillips apparently as much as LT is. While I'm a partial advocate of trading Penner, its for only someone like him, but doesn't have "The Curse of Ethan Moreau" on him.

Personally, I'm trading Penner for younger players and let this team go full out Lord of the Flies. Players like Eric Fehr+, Anthony Stewart+, Wayne Simmonds+, those three come to mind off the top of my head.

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