DO YOU SEE WHAT I SEE EDITION XIII
Jason Gregor
May 12 2011 09:06AM
Watching the 2011 playoffs got me thinking about how much has to change with the Oilers before they will be in the wonderfully-intense post-season action. Coming off consecutive 30th place finishes it is obvious they have some work to do, but the fashion in how Steve Tambellini tries to build this team will be most intriguing to me.
It is obvious the Oilers are going to try to build the majority of their foundation through the draft, but no team can win solely through the draft. Tambellini will need to make some astute trades, smart signings, a possible surprise waiver wire pick up and, most importantly, he'll need some luck.
Every team needs a few stars to be successful in the playoffs and the Oilers are hoping Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi become those guys. There is no guarantee they will, but after one NHL season it looks like they all have the potential to be difference makers down the road.
Shawn Horcoff always gives you his best effort, and can be counted on to compete come playoff time. Ales Hemsky, if he is here when they get to the playoffs, is also a guy who isn't afraid of the tough areas.
The big void that I see within the team are 3rd and 4th line guys who will be able to contribute. Every year the teams that make it to the final four, and ultimately win the Cup have a 3rd line guy who really elevates his point production in the playoffs.
This year guys like Joel Ward, Steve Downie, Sean Bergenheim, Teddy Purcell and Brad Marchand have emerged as playoff surprises. Ward and Bergenheim lead the playoffs with seven goals after scoring only ten and 14 respectively in 80 regular season games. Fernando Pisani did it for the Oilers in 2006, Maxime Talbot was huge for the Penguins in 2009 and every year it seems some 3rd line guy comes out of nowhere to produce big points.
Most of these guys are grinders, guys who have to battle hard every night in the regular season just to stay in the lineup, and outside of the surprise offensive production, their games don't really change much come playoff time. They just seem more prepared for the constant battles in the playoffs because they've had to play that way most of their careers.
Who do the Oilers have that fits that description?
Currently I see Ryan Jones and possibly a guy like Teemu Hartikainen. Jones' game isn't flashy, and he certainly won't win points for pretty goals, but his game doesn't vary much from shift-to-shift. He goes up and down his wing, crashes the net and scores most of his goals from three feet out or less.
Jones could be an UFA come July 1st, but when you look at the crop of free agents it makes no sense for the Oilers not to lock him up before then. Jones made $975,000 last season, and even after his surprising 18-goal season, I don't see why he and the Oilers won't agree on a two or three year deal worth between $1.3-$1.5 million/season.
UFA CROP IN JONES' PRICE RANGE
The list of guys who the Oilers could sign instead of Jones isn't that long. There are some guys who'd cost more, but if you are looking in the $1.4 million range Jones might be the best bargain they can find.
NAME LAST CONTRACT
Scottie Upshall $2.25 million
Brooks Laich $2.067 million
Chad Larose $1.7 million
Chris Higgins $1.6 million
Joel Ward $1.5 million
Tomas Kopecky $1.2 million
Curtis Glencross $1.2 million
Vern Fiddler $1.1 million
Max Talbot $1.05 million
Raffi Torres $1 million
Ben Eager $965, 000
Brian Sutherby $812,000
Body Gordon $800,000
Ville Leino $800,000
Eric Belanger $750,000
Sean Bergenheim $700,000
Tanner Glass $625,000
Talbot, Glencross, Laich and Leino will definitely garner some attention, if they aren't re-signed prior to July 1st, but do any of those other names jump out at you as guaranteed upgrades over Jones?
Even though we only saw him for a short stint, Hartikainen opened a lot of eyes and I spoke to two different AHL coaches this past week and both told me they think he is a bull and is a sure bet to be a consistent NHL 3rd liner, with the potential to chip in offensively.
The Oilers need another guy similar to a Jones or Hartikainen, but they are hard to find, so Tambellini either has to make a smart, subtle trade to acquire one or they have to draft one. They might have one in either Tyler Pitlick or Curtis Hamilton, but I'd like to see them acquire one with some NHL experience, because those two are likely a few years away from playing in Edmonton.
QUICK GLANCES
- If Patrice Bergeron is out for more than the first two games, the Bruins will be in tough against the Lightning. Bergeron has been great, and if he is out then the Nathan Horton line will have to carry more of the load. Horton's line was dominant against Philly, and it will be interesting to see if Eric Brewer and Matthias Ohlund can control that line starting Saturday.
- Besides Sidney Crosby, I don't think anyone is better than Pavel Datsyuk. He has unbelievable skill in the offensive zone, but his dogged determination on the puck in the other zones separates him from all the rest. If he cheated defensively now and then I bet he'd score 110 points every year.
- Do you remember when Philadelphia offered Ryan Kesler $1.9 million on a one-year deal in September of 2006. Many around the league thought the Flyers were just being dickish, but it sure looks like they knew something about Kesler that the rest of the league hadn't seen until last year. Even if you hate the Canucks or Kesler, you have to admit he is a hell of a player. I don't think it is a coincidence that once he stopped be so prickly towards the media off the ice, and so mouthy on the ice that his play improved. It wastes a lot of mental energy sparing with the media, especially in Vancouver where many, but not all, of them truly love the Canucks.
- The first round of this year's playoffs was the best two-week stretch of hockey I've seen in years, and I'm including the Olympics. We had nine straight days of overtime games, four games sevens and I can't recall an entire country, excluding BC, cheering so hard for one team to lose. It was awesome.
- Jeromy Roenick went a bit far with the word "gutless" when describing Patrick Marleau's play so far in the playoffs, but had he just used lazy or "void of caring" I doubt anyone would have complained. It is Roenick's job to speak his mind. The next day Jeff Marek tweeted that Roenick stood them up for a radio interview. I thought that was just as classless to be honest. I've had many guests either flat out forget about an appearance or blow it off because of a meeting and I didn't complain on twitter about it. Turns out Roenick was having a surprise lunch with his wife and kids and ended up doing the show the next day. Analysts are paid to rip or applaud a player's performance, radio hosts shouldn't moan publicly when a guy doesn't come on their show.
- A huge thank you to all the listeners who donated during the TEAM 1260 radiothon from the Stollery last Thursday. It is an emotional day, and I'm sure it is hard for you to listen to some of the stories, but you helped raise almost $450,000 in one day. Thanks for your kind hearts and big wallets.
not today my friends.
The anti-fist....nice!
I like Jones and I think the Oil need to re-sign him. They could go after a guy like Glencross, but after making 1.2mil and scoring 24 goals this season, his price tag will be too high for a 3rd liner IMO.
There are other good guys on that list, but no one really jumps out as a significant upgrade over Jones.
on datsyuk and crosby...
crosby plays like he is just flat out way more talented than anyone else.
datsyuk plays like he is WAY smarter than anyone else.
both ridicuously talented and imo there are no 2 better players in the game.
jason,
i agree with more depth on the 3rd and 4th lines but to what level do we approach because of the way Mr. Dither's has set up the rebuild. if his plan is indeed "4-5 yrs away" then for the short term a ward or upshall good, but pitlick and hamilton may be the fit by the time hell freezes over...otherwise known as the time dithers lead us to the promise land.
We still have too many top-six players on the team, and we may well be drafting another one. My money is on the bet that the Oilers will try to roll out three scoring lines (yet again) this year instead of going the traditional 3rd line checkers and the 4th line goon squad/energy line. If they do, they're likely to figure they only need 3-4 of those guys like Jones and Harski. Stortini and O'Marra are probably going to get one-way deals, and Vande Velde may play his way onto the squad. I don't know what Renney figures to do with Reddox.
I like a lot of the guys Jason points to as bottom six candidates. I'm just thinking the Oilers may not be out shoppping as hard for them as some people think they should be.
Bergeron being out of the Boston series means Seguin is in. It will be interesting seeing how Tyler handles the pressure of a big game in the Show.
I sure hope Jones doesn't get a overpriced long contract. I feel like year was just an anomaly.
In my opinion, a $2.5 million one year deal would be better than a $1.5/yr for 4 or 5 years.
If he repeats his peformance give him an extended contract. The Oilers have been burned too many times on giving guys long contracts for one year of performance.
Had to do a double take on the writer of the article, I coulda swore I heard Gregor on his show last year talking about how Datsyuk wasnt in his top list of NHLers... you just didnt see it. You've finally seen the light?
the only problem with that contract at one yr is that it then becomes an expected wage for the numbers he produced.
3/yr 1.2-1.4 is something that is acceptable to me. we need to stop denying possible returns on a player for one to two hundred thousand a year.
I guess the real question ends up being is this what you can expect from Ryan Jones year in and year out.
His underlying numbers are terrible (Scoring Chances for/against, Shots for/against) so you need to ask yourself does Ryan Jones really have a knack for creating better quality scoring chances than he gives up or does he have a knack for converting a higher percentage of shots than the average player? Or did he just have the shooting gods smiling at him all year? It's a fair question and one that management should have a clear idea about before choosing whether or not they should try and sign him.
Unlike Brule the previous year, there's not a lot of historical data to go on. Jones essentially doubled his career games, goals and shots with his work this past season. They made a pretty bad choice with Brule already and Jones is in a similar boat.
I gave you props for just bringing attention to our hallowed tradition.
I agree with Ender on this one. I think the Oil will once again try 3 scoring lines. This doesn't leave much room for bottom six-ers. I'd like so see Jones back, I liked that he worked hard every shift as well, he seems to actually like it in Edmonton. Those are 2 traits that we need more of, and that hopefully will be contagious.
It was an error to let the same people that leaked the toxic environment for public consumption to handle the rebuild . They should have denied it, and worked feverishly to rid themselves of it while the players value was still at a reasonable rate to procur at least a few decent replacements . It should have remained internal or restricted just to Souray in retrospect . Instead , they let entire team get thrown under the bus .
It's no wonder why no one wants to come here . If Katz(back then) had tried a move to help situation by making management the fall guy, and by bringing in a new managerial team , then i rather doubt we would be in such an adversarial or negative position we are in today .
"a possible surprise waiver wire pick up"
This is one thing that really disapointed me this year. Theirs been lots of quality NHL'ers plucked off the waiver wire the past few years. What a waste not getting anyone when we had "1st pick".
Is their more then 1-2 3rd/4th liners league wide that have recieved 4-5 year contracts recently?
I don't think that's really a worry. A 2, maybe 3 year contract is much more likely.
what about cody mccormick out of buffalo? I think he would be a perfect forth liner for the oil. One of the leaders in fighting majors, chipped in 20 points, and can play centre or rw. 6'2 225 and can skate, sign me up
@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
most waiver pick ups are like jones, 1 year remaining on a deal and we'll be back in the same boat as jones now, trying to re-sign him. the only waiver stand out this year had to be grabner.
i agree which is why i said a 3yr deal. truth suggested a 4/5yr deal and a one yr deal at 2.5, which i am opposed to.
The most generous assessment of Marleau that I can give is that he's incapable of raising his game when it matters. It doesn't help that he doesn't show any passion or energy during the postgame either; sort of a shoulder-shrug "oh well" attitude. To a point Heatley is the same way; there was a play in game 6 where a Detroit player bobbled the puck near the boards in his own end while Heatley was "forechecking" and if he hadn't been skating lazily towards his opponent it was a guaranteed steal. Instead he waved at the puck with his stick and the puck headed up ice for a Detroit goal. Sure it wouldn't be fair to judge someone on just one play but anyone who has seen these he and Marleau play with any regularity know it happens way too often. It's demoralizing to play on a team where a couple of guys (especially your "top" players) are consistently passengers
I think 2-3 years at 1.5 per would be a good length for Jones. I would only sign him for 5 years if it was for like 1 - 1.3 per. Although if it came down to 5 years 1.5 per they should still pull the trigger. Jones was a bright spot on the team this year and losing him would be like Glencross 2.0.
No point in getting rid of him just to sign another player with the same skill set. RJ is a character player and enjoys playing on the team. If you have to give him another 100-200k to keep him from walking, they would be crazy not to do it. Although, if they do let him walk over a piddly amount, it would pretty much be par for the course.
"a possible surprise waiver wire pick up"
Wasn't Jones a waiver wire pickup? I think his play and his output this last season would be considered a surprise for a waiver pickup.
If you bump him up to $2.5 on a one year deal, he is still a UFA next year and if he scores the same you have to give him at least $2.5. No way I would go that high especially on a one year deal.
I've never dissed Datsyuk. Only convo we had recently about top players, was top goal scorers. And yes he wasn't in that list.
@dawgbone
He doubled his points and goals, because he played in twice as many games. Also considering he doesn't shoot a lot and played with some less than offensive players, of course his shots for/against was low. Did you account for who is linemates were?
Which is exactly why I said the Oilers need to improve their 3rd and 4th lines.
Yes he was, and that was why I included that in the options for Tambellini. Good waiver pick up and luck go hand in hand.
While losing Jones wouldn't be the end of the world, fact of the matter is the Oilers could use 2 players like Jones. Be it Jones and someone or 2 others like Jones. They really should be working hard and exploring every option to sign him within reason.
Upshall 7 mill over 3 yrs, Glencross 6 mill over 3 yrs and bring Ryan Smyth back. These 3 guys would constantly be pushing guys ahead of them in the lineup.
Would like to have Rick Rypien as well if he could stay on the straight and narrow. The Oilers will be grabbibg 2 centers with their two top six picks anyways, doesn't leave any room for Ripper with Brule and Fraser still under contract.
I dont think there need to be the drastic signings to make the Oil more competitive and tougher. An answer may be tossing a contract to Zenon Konopka ($600K last year) so a mil this year, with McCormick($500K last year) on the wing. Allowing Horcoff to center a third line with Jones, and Hartikainen. Given how the top 6 end up looking, jones or Hartikainen could move down to 4th line minutes. It gives the oilers size, grit, toughness and face off prowess, in a relatively cheap overall package and doesnt hurt the future as any of the pieces are replacable. Horcoff with those two would provide that defensive 3rd line with offensive pop, and a fourth line that could match up with anyone given the need.
@Quicksilver ballet
why would anyone want a mentally unstable player like rypien? he's not even good to begin with. if it was tootoo, even with his troubled past, at least he could play.
Oops, that was supposed to be quoting Truth.
So why would that be a bad thing if we were "back in the same boat as jones, trying to resign him"?
Yes Grabner, the ROY candidate.
I would like to see the Oil get an enforcer that can be effective. I love Big Mac,and while he is certainly willing to take on anybody and defend him teammates, not many guys will fight him, which makes him ineffective.
I think the Oil should try to land a guy like Ben Eager. He is tough as nails, he knows his role and other players are more willing to fight him. Just a thought....
Halving downgrades as projected from within our system and almost no additions via waiver , etc . makes you wonder why decent personnel seems to get bypassed so readily here . Is the ability to recognize talent gotten any better ? Our group seems to think we have enough already from within to be a contender for next season . More and more of us have lost faith in their ability to assess and shore up the glaring voids already mounting up . I feel we have passed up a lot of reasonable acquisitions that are much better than current fill ins . So it seems team unlikely to go after the types of personnel that most of us feel would be beneficial to team being more competitive .
We waited two years ago to no avail , then last year and this with only Jones a possible keeper . This season once again looks like it's going to be be no avail again . I see a lot of Gregors list far better than in our system or on team now .
I would love to see the Oil swing a deal for Tootoo. Now if they could somehow talk the Preds into including Shae Weber in that deal, that would be awesome!
...I yawn, as I wake up from my fantasy world! :)
Glencross.
/thread
Both those players are in the same boat. Rypien = late 80's Dave Manson.
Datsyuk is some sort of Russian anomaly. Whenever i watch him i forget he is Russian. I can't remember any other Russian born forward who is so dominate at both ends of the ice. I suppose an arguement could be made for Fedorov.
As for Jones I think he benefited from a series of injuries this year that inflated . With a healthy Oilers team i can't see him duplicating his goal totals from last season. His 7 assits makes me wonder how good of an offensive mind he is. That being said i would love to see him back and could care less about his offensive production because his work ethic, PK, Hitting and ability to get under other teams skin are his best attributes. From the list Gregor provided, the name that sticks out most to me is Kopecky, but i think he will be highly sought after and will earn a considerable raise. Kopecky, Hartikainen, and Brule/Cogs would make a nice 3rd line.
As much as i hate him i have to admit Kesler is a great player, but if somehow the Canucks win the cup and the Heat with the NBA championship i may go postal.
@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
it's only bad if we can't re-sign and in my eyes it's almost as hard as signing a UFA to edmonton. sure it's worth a shot, because it's better to take a chance then not to but i didn't really see much in terms of waiver of a pick up this season besides maybe rivet?
i was 4~ in the late 80's, so i don't get the reference. rypien has heart, but he can't play. it's out of position, losey skater and takes late runs at people because he's an awful skater. he would be on the same boat as ZS but worse of a hockey player.
Umm.. The majority of players on that list are considerably better and more establised than Jones.. If we are taking about glaring need, Dmen are far above Mr. Jones..
with my griping aside, he is ok if the dollars are ok.. (Signing the guy for term longer than 2-3 years is silliness, imo.. has no history to suggest 18 goals is a 'starting' point or is sustainable.. He had a lot of opportunity this year on a very weak team,.. oh, and does he kill penalties?!..)
There is no 'NEED TO' in this conversation..
Geez, only one year removed from the brule contract and..
@Dominoiler
jones kills penalties.
The amazing thing to me is that there are many players whom could be as good as Datsyuk and Crosby but they just would rather enjoy the life of being a rich athlete. Penner comes to mind in a way (I know he could not be as good as them.) because we will never know how good Penner could be nor will he ever know because the motivation to be the very best is just not there. Good? Sure, but the very best? NO!
When I compare Datsyuk and the "Great8" it is really such an amazing dichotomy. I bet 2 years of the two playing together would teach Ovi a ton. I still cant see Van in the Finals or Winning it all if they get there unless the Twins Learn to "Want it" Like Datsyuk other wise they will go the way of the "Great8", Golfing.
Thanks for the correction Mantastic,.. Wasnt sure, hence the '?!'.. (knowing is certainly better than spewing, hehe)
If you are going to improve your 3/4 line forwards through waiver wire/FA "lower level" trades, then it's equally if not more important to improve the D. Adding a legitimate experienced D man who can play in the 2nd pairing is desperately needed. Gilbert/Whitney/Smid + "x", leaves Foster, Peckham, Chorney and Petry to fill out 5-7. If you don't want to go after the one top available guys (Eg. Bieksa, Erhoff) a guy like Shane O'Brien, while not a stud
@Sheldon "Oilers Fan for Life!!!"
I can't see them getting by Detroit/San Jose either, but if at anytime the Sedins wake up they could put together a nice little run *puke*.
Actually it is in no way bad.
Even if we can't re-sign the guy, the team loses nothing... as they've given up nothing to get him.
I'm not saying thier are LOTS of good waiver pick-ups, I AM saying their are a handful every year, and of those 3-4 decent pick-ups their seems to be 1 or so a year that turns into a really nice suprise.
The team wasted a nice oppertunity not taking advantage of it's crappy record (and it's first shot at the wiaver wire)
@Westcoastoil
O'Brien is still too young (i think he's around 26) and we need more Vets.
Who is Body Gordon? And what has he done to make 800K in the NHL?
Glencross - no thanks.
I like Upshall, Leino, and Laich. But if Colby Armstrong is making $3M a year, these guys will cost more ... maybe up to $4.5 for Leino and Laich.
Can the Oil use character players like this? Absolutely. But not for another couple of years.
@John Chambers
agreed, i love the thought of upshall and laich, more so laich. such a character guy but i can't seem him coming here unless he gets a long term deal (4-5years).
@Mantastic
He'll be 28 this summer and he has 5 full seasons in the league. He's got a lot of the learning curve/maturity under his belt, he's tough, has size, played about 17 mins. a night for Trotz and shouldn't break the bank. Coming off $1.6M and a decent run in the playoffs. If you don't want to spend big $ I think he'd be a very good fit. Who's a better option?