DO YOU SEE WHAT I SEE EDITION XIII

Jason Gregor
May 12 2011 09:06AM

Watching the 2011 playoffs got me thinking about how much has to change with the Oilers before they will be in the wonderfully-intense post-season action. Coming off consecutive 30th place finishes it is obvious they have some work to do, but the fashion in how Steve Tambellini tries to build this team will be most intriguing to me.

It is obvious the Oilers are going to try to build the majority of their foundation through the draft, but no team can win solely through the draft. Tambellini will need to make some astute trades, smart signings, a possible surprise waiver wire pick up and, most importantly, he'll need some luck.

Every team needs a few stars to be successful in the playoffs and the Oilers are hoping Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi become those guys. There is no guarantee they will, but after one NHL season it looks like they all have the potential to be difference makers down the road.

Shawn Horcoff always gives you his best effort, and can be counted on to compete come playoff time. Ales Hemsky, if he is here when they get to the playoffs, is also a guy who isn't afraid of the tough areas.

The big void that I see within the team are 3rd and 4th line guys who will be able to contribute. Every year the teams that make it to the final four, and ultimately win the Cup have a 3rd line guy who really elevates his point production in the playoffs.

This year guys like Joel Ward, Steve Downie, Sean Bergenheim, Teddy Purcell and Brad Marchand have emerged as playoff surprises. Ward and Bergenheim lead the playoffs with seven goals after scoring only ten and 14 respectively in 80 regular season games. Fernando Pisani did it for the Oilers in 2006, Maxime Talbot was huge for the Penguins in 2009 and every year it seems some 3rd line guy comes out of nowhere to produce big points.

Most of these guys are grinders, guys who have to battle hard every night in the regular season just to stay in the lineup, and outside of the surprise offensive production, their games don't really change much come playoff time. They just seem more prepared for the constant battles in the playoffs because they've had to play that way most of their careers. 

Who do the Oilers have that fits that description?

Currently I see Ryan Jones and possibly a guy like Teemu Hartikainen. Jones' game isn't flashy, and he certainly won't win points for pretty goals, but his game doesn't vary much from shift-to-shift. He goes up and down his wing, crashes the net and scores most of his goals from three feet out or less.

Jones could be an UFA come July 1st, but when you look at the crop of free agents it makes no sense for the Oilers not to lock him up before then. Jones made $975,000 last season, and even after his surprising 18-goal season, I don't see why he and the Oilers won't agree on a two or three year deal worth between $1.3-$1.5 million/season.

UFA CROP IN JONES' PRICE RANGE

The list of guys who the Oilers could sign instead of Jones isn't that long. There are some guys who'd cost more, but if you are looking in the $1.4 million range Jones might be the best bargain they can find.

NAME                               LAST CONTRACT
Scottie Upshall                    $2.25 million
Brooks Laich                        $2.067 million
Chad Larose                        $1.7 million
Chris Higgins                       $1.6 million
Joel Ward                              $1.5 million
Tomas Kopecky                   $1.2 million
Curtis Glencross                 $1.2 million
Vern Fiddler                          $1.1 million
Max Talbot                             $1.05 million
Raffi Torres                           $1 million
Ben Eager                             $965, 000
Brian Sutherby                     $812,000
Body Gordon                        $800,000
Ville Leino                             $800,000
Eric Belanger                       $750,000
Sean Bergenheim              $700,000
Tanner Glass                      $625,000

Talbot, Glencross, Laich and Leino will definitely garner some attention, if they aren't re-signed prior to July 1st, but do any of those other names jump out at you as guaranteed upgrades over Jones? 

Even though we only saw him for a short stint, Hartikainen opened a lot of eyes and I spoke to two different AHL coaches this past week and both told me they think he is a bull and is a sure bet to be a consistent NHL 3rd liner, with the potential to chip in offensively.

The Oilers need another guy similar to a Jones or Hartikainen, but they are hard to find, so Tambellini either has to make a smart, subtle trade to acquire one or they have to draft one. They might have one in either Tyler Pitlick or Curtis Hamilton, but I'd like to see them acquire one with some NHL experience, because those two are likely a few years away from playing in Edmonton.

QUICK GLANCES

  •  If Patrice Bergeron is out for more than the first two games, the Bruins will be in tough against the Lightning. Bergeron has been great, and if he is out then the Nathan Horton line will have to carry more of the load. Horton's line was dominant against Philly, and it will be interesting to see if Eric Brewer and Matthias Ohlund can control that line starting Saturday.
     
  • Besides Sidney Crosby, I don't think anyone is better than Pavel Datsyuk. He has unbelievable skill in the offensive zone, but his dogged determination on the puck in the other zones separates him from all the rest. If he cheated defensively now and then I bet he'd score 110 points every year.
     
  • Do you remember when Philadelphia offered Ryan Kesler $1.9 million on a one-year deal in September of 2006. Many around the league thought the Flyers were just being dickish, but it sure looks like they knew something about Kesler that the rest of the league hadn't seen until last year. Even if you hate the Canucks or Kesler, you have to admit he is a hell of a player. I don't think it is a coincidence that once he stopped be so prickly towards the media off the ice, and so mouthy on the ice that his play improved. It wastes a lot of mental energy sparing with the media, especially in Vancouver where many, but not all, of them truly love the Canucks.
     
  • The first round of this year's playoffs was the best two-week stretch of hockey I've seen in years, and I'm including the Olympics. We had nine straight days of overtime games, four games sevens and I can't recall an entire country, excluding BC, cheering so hard for one team to lose. It was awesome. 
     
  • Jeromy Roenick went a bit far with the word "gutless" when describing Patrick Marleau's play so far in the playoffs, but had he just used lazy or "void of caring" I doubt anyone would have complained. It is Roenick's job to speak his mind. The next day Jeff Marek tweeted that Roenick stood them up for a radio interview. I thought that was just as classless to be honest. I've had many guests either flat out forget about an appearance or blow it off because of a meeting and I didn't complain on twitter about it. Turns out Roenick was having a surprise lunch with his wife and kids and ended up doing the show the next day. Analysts are paid to rip or applaud a player's performance, radio hosts shouldn't moan publicly when a guy doesn't come on their show.
     
  •  A huge thank you to all the listeners who donated during the TEAM 1260 radiothon from the Stollery last Thursday. It is an emotional day, and I'm sure it is hard for you to listen to some of the stories, but you helped raise almost $450,000 in one day. Thanks for your kind hearts and big wallets. 
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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#51 FastOil
May 12 2011, 12:30PM
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Except Jones isn't a good hockey player, as many blogs have shown with stats.

We need to get rid of bad and/or lazy players and get players who excel in their roles, whatever they are.

There is lots of cap, so why have crappy low salary players? It makes no sense. Now is when we can have the cream of these guys, to carry weight and teach, until ELC's start ending.

A culture of excellence needs to be re-created, and guys who can't or won't play appropriately well kill excellence in it's tracks, and the morale of the guys who are good.

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#52 dawgbone
May 12 2011, 12:30PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

He doubled his points and goals, because he played in twice as many games. Also considering he doesn't shoot a lot and played with some less than offensive players, of course his shots for/against was low. Did you account for who is linemates were?

Which is exactly why I said the Oilers need to improve their 3rd and 4th lines.

I'm aware of how he doubled his point totals, I was simply using that as an example of how limited his history is.

The point I was trying to make was that we have a question that needs to be answered.

Does Ryan Jones have an ability to either create a higher quality scoring chance than an average NHL player / score on a higher % of chances than an NHL player or did he have the hockey gods smiling down on him.

Even when you account for his linemates, Jones had horrific SC+/- and Shot+/- (incidentally, everyone who played with him had their worst numbers in these categories... draw your own conclusions there).

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#53 R.A. Slapshotzky
May 12 2011, 12:34PM
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You mentioned Datsyuk as a top player in the league Gregor. Do you think it's fair to say that Datsyuk's play this spring, and the fact that RNH has been compared to him, will further influence the Oilers scouts decision in June? It's insane how eerily similar they skate at the very least.

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#54 Mantastic
May 12 2011, 12:36PM
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@Westcoastoil

he hasn't matured all that much, he has matured a little this season but he's already 27 and no way as mature as whitney. when he was playing in vancouver, last season, he would be the one going out to party on nights off and never had much of a leadership role in any team he's been apart of. we need players to teach our young guns how compete.

i would maybe say craig rivet as our 6th/7th D-man, former captain of the sabers.

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#55 big joe grizzley
May 12 2011, 12:41PM
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question..are the oilers tough enough..answer..is is big joe grizzley from indo china..hell no,i'm from etown baby!and i like tough hardnose hockey,and i like tough mean nasty hockey players,you win with guts and nads, not with softeness and nadlessness! hey tambo bring in a few alfa males and lets get this party started...i've been talking on this for freaken years,its time to get it done...renney said it best ''it hurts to win''....bjg is out

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#56 Bank Shot
May 12 2011, 12:44PM
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Ryan Jones is Ryan Potulny with a little more grit. Ryan Jones type players certainly aren't hard to find.

Heck, the Post Weight Oilers up until 05-06 were 90% the player type Gregor is wishing for. In the past few seasons they have let go of Pisani, Moreau, Smyth, Torres, Stoll, Glencross, Brodziak, Peca, Dvorak.

It's not that these players are hard to find or retain, it's more like Kevin Lowe made a conscious decision to send them all down the road when he was pursuing his "Skill model". Nilsson, Lupul, Sykora, O'Sullivan, Brule, PUKE!

Elite 3rd liners can be hard to find, but if the Oilers just need some guys that can hold their own in the bottom six it could have been accomplished at almost any time since the team was sank following the Pronger trade.

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#57 NastyNate
May 12 2011, 12:45PM
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@Mantastic

Although i would like Rivet's character i think he would bed no different than strudwick. I'm quite sure Rivet has been plagued by injuries the last 2 years and as an aging defenceman we could use his character moreso than his skill set. i think Mike Commodore would be a better fit although his price tag is far to high for my liking.

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#58 John S
May 12 2011, 12:49PM
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My top 5

Sidney Crosby

Pavel Datsyuk

Jonathan Toews

Ryan Kesler

Henrik Zetterberg

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#59 Westcoastoil
May 12 2011, 12:51PM
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@Mantastic

I agree he isn't my first choice (I'd go hard after Bieksa), but Rivet is 36 and was a HS a bunch this year. Jonathon Ericsson is another, but Det. seems always re-sign the ones they want to keep. Hejda would help too.

Bottom line is the strength is all up front now and for them to improve they need stability on D, so they at least have a chance to win. Watching Foster get turnstiled all year from the bench has to be demoralizing.

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#60 Robin Brownlee
May 12 2011, 12:52PM
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@big joe grizzley

I'm guessing you are five-foot-seven with self-esteem issues. Stop talking about yourself in the third-person or you're in for a kick in the BJG nads from BRB you will remember for generations.

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#61 Mantastic
May 12 2011, 12:55PM
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@NastyNate

yeah that's what i'm seeing as rivet as well, a more competent version of struds. struds was an awesome character guy for the locker room but didn't offer much in teaching the young guys how to play the game. commodore would work as well, i could even see a possible return of staios? lol, all of which will be making less then 2 mill next year, that's for sure.

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#62 mayorpoop
May 12 2011, 12:56PM
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John S wrote:

My top 5

Sidney Crosby

Pavel Datsyuk

Jonathan Toews

Ryan Kesler

Henrik Zetterberg

agree with top 3 but kesler? one really good yr? i am by no means an ovi fan but that boy can play, he got to be in top 3.

all aside i would take them all on my team.

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#63 mayorpoop
May 12 2011, 12:57PM
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Robin Brownlee wrote:

I'm guessing you are five-foot-seven with self-esteem issues. Stop talking about yourself in the third-person or you're in for a kick in the BJG nads from BRB you will remember for generations.

top shelf BRB, top shelf!

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#64 Souby
May 12 2011, 12:58PM
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Robin Brownlee wrote:

I'm guessing you are five-foot-seven with self-esteem issues. Stop talking about yourself in the third-person or you're in for a kick in the BJG nads from BRB you will remember for generations.

LOL! Now now boys. Take it outside or at least wait until we can place some wagers. I got 5 bucks on Brownlee, any takers? ;)

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#65 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 12 2011, 12:59PM
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dawgbone wrote:

I'm aware of how he doubled his point totals, I was simply using that as an example of how limited his history is.

The point I was trying to make was that we have a question that needs to be answered.

Does Ryan Jones have an ability to either create a higher quality scoring chance than an average NHL player / score on a higher % of chances than an NHL player or did he have the hockey gods smiling down on him.

Even when you account for his linemates, Jones had horrific SC+/- and Shot+/- (incidentally, everyone who played with him had their worst numbers in these categories... draw your own conclusions there).

Unless his break away ability was a fluke this year I'd say he has the ability to create a higher quality scoring chance.

That said, I wouldn't be signing him expecting 20 goals, I'd be signing him looking for 10 - 15 goals, some 4th line utility play and a little PK.

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#66 K-UGER Industrial Smoothing
May 12 2011, 01:01PM
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you want to talk gutless? Jeff Marek is a cocky SOB who thinks he`s so damn important that HNIC couldn`t go on if he wasn`t able to come in to work. I hate that guy and his stupid hand motions.

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#67 Sheldon "Oilers Fan for Life!!!"
May 12 2011, 01:01PM
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There are several payers on the list I like but I would miss Jones hair flying 400 feet behind his helmet. He also just surprises me when he scores.

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#68 Mantastic
May 12 2011, 01:01PM
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@Westcoastoil

yeah i know, foster really has to step up. he was brought here for a PP specialist but really hasn't offered much at all. he's really just eating a roster spot for the time being.

to anyone: is the head coach in charge of coaching the defense or is it one of the assistant/associate coaches?

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#69 Lyxdeslic
May 12 2011, 01:04PM
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@Me

Boyd Gordon, he is a former first rounder who is a solid defensive offencemen for Washington/Hershey

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#70 Sheldon "Oilers Fan for Life!!!"
May 12 2011, 01:19PM
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@Robin Brownlee

Fighting in the off season I love it! 5$ on BJG. Is Mama G his Second?

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#71 Woodguy
May 12 2011, 01:22PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

I've never dissed Datsyuk. Only convo we had recently about top players, was top goal scorers. And yes he wasn't in that list.

EDIT: Somehow it quoted the wrong part. I wanted to quote Jason's question about which team mates Jones played with

Ryan Jones has the distinction of making every player on the Oilers worse when they played with him, except two. (in terms of scoring chances for/against)

Link: http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/5/6/2157593/ryan-jones-scoring-chances-2010-2011

The killer stat is how many players are so close to .500 when not playing with Jones.

He scored 18 goals in the NHL and that's quite an accomplishment. The underlying numbers are terrible though.

The same guys who warned against re-signing Brule are putting up even larger red lights on this guy.

Let him walk.

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#72 GEP
May 12 2011, 01:25PM
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@Jason Gregor

Thanks Gregor, i thought he was a waiver pickup.

What i would look for in any player filling our 3rd and 4th line roles would be attitude and work ethic.

By attitude, i mean they are pissed off if they are sat for a game, but not in a negative manner that would bring down the morale of the team or other players. Pissed off because they care.

By work ethic,I would like the Oil to get a hardworking player in the games and in practice to show the kids what it takes to stay in this league as a bottom 6 forward.

Then my third criteria, would be to have the ability to win a frickin faceoff!

So sign Jones to a 2 yr deal because i think he has the above qualities except the faceoffs, and sign someone like Boyd Gordon or Vern Fiddler(although i don't know about his FC%) to the same 2 yr term.

That would allow our prospects the 1-2 years of development time that is required.

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#73 Mrs. Potato Dick
May 12 2011, 01:28PM
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@Bank Shot

I have to disagree. I think players like Jones are in greater number than elite offensive or defensive players but they aren't easy to find. The Oil certainly appeared to miss Curtis Gengross when he didn't get resigned.

Guys like this also generate their own offense by being hard on the forecheck or fearlessly jumping through the middle to snag a loose puck.

Jones makes an impact with his ballz-out effort and seems to be fearless on the rush. Great energy and team guy. If he can equal his output this year on a healthy Oilers team next year those 18 goals could be difference makers.

My opinion only.

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#74 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 12 2011, 01:33PM
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Woodguy wrote:

EDIT: Somehow it quoted the wrong part. I wanted to quote Jason's question about which team mates Jones played with

Ryan Jones has the distinction of making every player on the Oilers worse when they played with him, except two. (in terms of scoring chances for/against)

Link: http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/5/6/2157593/ryan-jones-scoring-chances-2010-2011

The killer stat is how many players are so close to .500 when not playing with Jones.

He scored 18 goals in the NHL and that's quite an accomplishment. The underlying numbers are terrible though.

The same guys who warned against re-signing Brule are putting up even larger red lights on this guy.

Let him walk.

Here's my issue with the Brule comparison:

(As a side note I did think that Brule was overated after last year)

The issue with Brule wasn't so much that his play sucked this year, it is that he couldn't stay healthy (or whatever the heck it was keeping him out of the line-up)

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#75 Woodguy
May 12 2011, 01:49PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Here's my issue with the Brule comparison:

(As a side note I did think that Brule was overated after last year)

The issue with Brule wasn't so much that his play sucked this year, it is that he couldn't stay healthy (or whatever the heck it was keeping him out of the line-up)

No question Brule had a tough year medically (what does he have anyway, plague?)

His numbers last year away from Penner were terrible.

His numbers this year were terrible.

Its tough to make a distinction based on his problems this year, but he did play only 14 less games this year compared to last year.

Brule 09/10 65 gp 17g 20a 37pts -8

Brule 10/11 41gp 7g 2a 9pts -7

A healthy season would be interesting to see, but I'm really not expecting much from him.

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#76 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 12 2011, 01:55PM
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Woodguy wrote:

No question Brule had a tough year medically (what does he have anyway, plague?)

His numbers last year away from Penner were terrible.

His numbers this year were terrible.

Its tough to make a distinction based on his problems this year, but he did play only 14 less games this year compared to last year.

Brule 09/10 65 gp 17g 20a 37pts -8

Brule 10/11 41gp 7g 2a 9pts -7

A healthy season would be interesting to see, but I'm really not expecting much from him.

24 less games.

And just as a side note, I remember a few years ago the same numbers being used against Jones (and Brule last year) were being used in support of O'sullivan (ie saying he was a better player then what his counting numbers/observers "eyes" told them)

The underlying numbers are interesting and certainly hold some merit, but I don't think they are a slam dunk either way.

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#77 Walter
May 12 2011, 01:59PM
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Eager would look good on the 4th line. Jones has had one decent year....

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#78 Dennis
May 12 2011, 02:03PM
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Bank Shot wrote:

Ryan Jones is Ryan Potulny with a little more grit. Ryan Jones type players certainly aren't hard to find.

Heck, the Post Weight Oilers up until 05-06 were 90% the player type Gregor is wishing for. In the past few seasons they have let go of Pisani, Moreau, Smyth, Torres, Stoll, Glencross, Brodziak, Peca, Dvorak.

It's not that these players are hard to find or retain, it's more like Kevin Lowe made a conscious decision to send them all down the road when he was pursuing his "Skill model". Nilsson, Lupul, Sykora, O'Sullivan, Brule, PUKE!

Elite 3rd liners can be hard to find, but if the Oilers just need some guys that can hold their own in the bottom six it could have been accomplished at almost any time since the team was sank following the Pronger trade.

I think that's the definitive post in this thread because it lays out how things have changed.

Of course someone else might say that Morey Gare etc don't know how to find these guys as well.

Regarding Gregor's list, neither of Reasoner or Dovorak or Higgins were on that list so maybe Morey Gare did Gregor's list for him:)

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#79 Dennis
May 12 2011, 02:04PM
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also, another $5 on BJG vs Brownlee;)

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#81 They're $hittie
May 12 2011, 02:29PM
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congratualation Dave Nonnis, taking a team of maple leafs to the world championship was a good strategy. Why do you think your junk would do well there.

As my name says phanuef blows

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#83 Woodguy
May 12 2011, 02:32PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

24 less games.

And just as a side note, I remember a few years ago the same numbers being used against Jones (and Brule last year) were being used in support of O'sullivan (ie saying he was a better player then what his counting numbers/observers "eyes" told them)

The underlying numbers are interesting and certainly hold some merit, but I don't think they are a slam dunk either way.

24 less games

Math is hard.

Lordy.

Ha!

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#84 Dan the Man
May 12 2011, 02:35PM
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Tough loss for Canada today.

~Good thing Eberle was on the bench in the final minute, that guy never scores big goals.~

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#85 dawgbone
May 12 2011, 02:38PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

So now the scoring chances and shots for and against are the basis of what is a good and bad hockey player. Please tell me you don't actually believe this.

Who thinks Jones is lazy? This town and posters love to rip work ethic, and I don't recall anyone saying he was lazy.

The cap will be over $60 million this season, who is $1.3 million an overpayment, for a guy who coming off an 18 goal season and in two half season was on pace for 14-15 goals.

Is there a better metric to go by?

And I don't think fastoil wasn't calling Jones lazy, I think he was calling him bad (he said we need to get rid of Bad and/or Lazy Players... meaning bad players, lazy players and players who are both).

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#86 Woodguy
May 12 2011, 02:39PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Look at Potulny stats and you will see a big differnce between him and Jones. Jones had 16 EV goals, while Potulny had 9.

And please don't put Jones or any of the guys I mentioned in same category at Smyth and Peca and even Stoll who scored over 60 points.

Rehashing the past won't help the future, because that won't give them quality 3rd liners. The point is what can they do to get those type of guys moving forward.

I'm just not holding my breath because the same people who got rid of Reasoner, Brodziak, Pisani etc are the same guys who are in charge today and tomorrow.

In regards to a real 3C, in the span of 2 years these guys got rid of Stoll, Reasoner and Brodziak and replaced them with no one.

They didn't even keep poor old Pouliot, who had an outside shot at becoming a 3C.

The the same guys we are looking at to fill the void created the void.

Did Tambellini have his own movement of "clarity" that we haven't seen on an episode of Oil Change?

I hope he had a "come to Jesus" moment and is chasing a NHL Vet 3/4C.

My guess is that he doesn't add a 3/4C lets Cogliano and Fraser flounder and puts Lander in over his head instead of learning the ropes in OKC.

I base that on things he has done in the past.

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#87 K
May 12 2011, 02:41PM
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Eric Belanger                       $750,000

He is the answer.

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#89 dawgbone
May 12 2011, 02:42PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Unless his break away ability was a fluke this year I'd say he has the ability to create a higher quality scoring chance.

That said, I wouldn't be signing him expecting 20 goals, I'd be signing him looking for 10 - 15 goals, some 4th line utility play and a little PK.

Is break away ability an actual ability? Jordan Staal scored 29 goals his rookie season, a lot of them shorthanded and on breakaways. He hasn't been close to that number since despite getting a lot more ice time.

The other question is Ryan Jones good enough to play on a good hockey team scoring 10-15 goals if he continues to have the same underlying numbers? In other words does he give up too much to get those goals?

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#90 Woodguy
May 12 2011, 02:46PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

So now the scoring chances and shots for and against are the basis of what is a good and bad hockey player. Please tell me you don't actually believe this.

Who thinks Jones is lazy? This town and posters love to rip work ethic, and I don't recall anyone saying he was lazy.

The cap will be over $60 million this season, who is $1.3 million an overpayment, for a guy who coming off an 18 goal season and in two half season was on pace for 14-15 goals.

All NHL teams track scoring chances for and against and use it for the basis of evaluating players.

It works much better than goal, assists and points because you get a larger sample size and reduce the role that luck plays in the numbers.

You read David Staples article on Roger Neilson and Dave King (I assume you did since you had him on your show after his article)

Why not have Dave King on your show and ask him about it. It would make a good interview and open some people's eyes as to what NHL track.

You should also have Myles Fee (Oilers video coach) and see what he can share about what the Oilers track (NHL teams are usually very secretive about what they track), he may not share much, but the Scoring Chances metric is a pretty universal one he may talk about.

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#93 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 12 2011, 03:19PM
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dawgbone wrote:

Is break away ability an actual ability? Jordan Staal scored 29 goals his rookie season, a lot of them shorthanded and on breakaways. He hasn't been close to that number since despite getting a lot more ice time.

The other question is Ryan Jones good enough to play on a good hockey team scoring 10-15 goals if he continues to have the same underlying numbers? In other words does he give up too much to get those goals?

I don't know, but he seems to have the speed and anticipation to make me think it is. We'll see over the next couple of years I guess.

He scored at a 10-15 goal pace twice on pretty solid hockey teams so I'd have to think he would.

Beside, we're not even close to being at that point yet, when we've got 8 superior wingers then we can talk about how we don't need him.

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#94 OilFan
May 12 2011, 03:36PM
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Souby wrote:

LOL! Now now boys. Take it outside or at least wait until we can place some wagers. I got 5 bucks on Brownlee, any takers? ;)

WOW! LOL It is obvious you haven't seen Brownlee....

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#95 dawgbone
May 12 2011, 03:47PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

I agree it has merit, but do you think it is the best and most effective evaluation of a player.

How effective is the stat if Jones was the worst on the team but was only -5?

Would you rather have a guy who scores 18 goals, but doesn't create many scoring chances, and gives up more chances.

Or would you want a guy who scores 12 goals, is minus ten but is on the ice for way more scoring chances?

The question then becomes is it repeatable.

Can he get hammered by all the metrics time and time again and come out with 18 goals and only be a -5 or does it catch up with him?

At the end of the season I probably would rather a guy who scores 18, gets hammered by the metrics and ends up -5 rather than a guy who scores 12, does great by the metrics and ends up -10 (both players playing the same role).

With that being said, if we are now deciding on who I want to make a commitment on for the next couple of years it becomes a different story. It's also the reason I posted the questions earlier: is he naturally better at creating quality scoring chances/finishing chances or was he lucky?

If it's the latter it could end up being a pretty bad contract, even at less than $1.5mil/year.

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#96 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 12 2011, 03:55PM
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dawgbone wrote:

The question then becomes is it repeatable.

Can he get hammered by all the metrics time and time again and come out with 18 goals and only be a -5 or does it catch up with him?

At the end of the season I probably would rather a guy who scores 18, gets hammered by the metrics and ends up -5 rather than a guy who scores 12, does great by the metrics and ends up -10 (both players playing the same role).

With that being said, if we are now deciding on who I want to make a commitment on for the next couple of years it becomes a different story. It's also the reason I posted the questions earlier: is he naturally better at creating quality scoring chances/finishing chances or was he lucky?

If it's the latter it could end up being a pretty bad contract, even at less than $1.5mil/year.

Do we have SF/SA SCF/SCA numbers from when he played with the Preds? I'd like to know what his numbers were like there.

Also, who cares if it's a "bad contract"? the only way "bad contracts" matter is when they restrict you from aquiring superior players.

Even if the team did end up spending to the cap this year and Jones gets lit up next year as long as the contract is relatively short and relatively small they are easy to get rid of.

Signing Jones to 2-3 years in the 1.5 range is essentially a risk free move from a hockey opperations point.

And again, until we have 8 superior wingers it shouldn't really even be a consideration.

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#97 Ender
May 12 2011, 04:14PM
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OilFan wrote:

WOW! LOL It is obvious you haven't seen Brownlee....

It's not the size of the dog in the fight;
It's the size of the fight in the dog.

Not that this observation should be construed as me condoning Robin being mean to people. I'm just observing he's good at what he does.

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#98 Woodguy
May 12 2011, 04:17PM
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@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

Thr underlying numbers being refered to here are scoring chances being tracked by Dennis King.

He wasn't tracking them when O'Sullivan was an Oiler, and I don't think any public website was publishing any Oiler scoring chances.

So whatever underlying numbers were being used to defend O'Sullivan, they were not Scoring Chances.

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#99 Quicksilver ballet
May 12 2011, 04:19PM
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Guys, i'm in a pinch here and hope you can help me out....is it still acceptible to chill your beer in the water tank on the toilet when you've exhausted all other options?

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#100 Woodguy
May 12 2011, 04:24PM
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@Jason Gregor

I always want the guy creating more scoring chances than he gives up.

In the long run that player will create more than they give up.

I'll go one further and say I'd prefer the player who is over .500 on SC with multiple team mates than one who just plays well with certain team mates.

In regards to Mahlotra, he was in a position to truely pick and choose where he wanted to go, most FA's (3rd line types) are not in that position and will go to the best offer.

There was no way he'd come to EDM given his position.

That is not to say Tambellini couldn't sign decent FA's. Garth Snow has a much better FA signing record than Tambellini and according to NHL players they'd rather play for the Oilers than the Isles.

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