DO YOU SEE WHAT I SEE EDITION XIII

Jason Gregor
May 12 2011 09:06AM

Watching the 2011 playoffs got me thinking about how much has to change with the Oilers before they will be in the wonderfully-intense post-season action. Coming off consecutive 30th place finishes it is obvious they have some work to do, but the fashion in how Steve Tambellini tries to build this team will be most intriguing to me.

It is obvious the Oilers are going to try to build the majority of their foundation through the draft, but no team can win solely through the draft. Tambellini will need to make some astute trades, smart signings, a possible surprise waiver wire pick up and, most importantly, he'll need some luck.

Every team needs a few stars to be successful in the playoffs and the Oilers are hoping Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi become those guys. There is no guarantee they will, but after one NHL season it looks like they all have the potential to be difference makers down the road.

Shawn Horcoff always gives you his best effort, and can be counted on to compete come playoff time. Ales Hemsky, if he is here when they get to the playoffs, is also a guy who isn't afraid of the tough areas.

The big void that I see within the team are 3rd and 4th line guys who will be able to contribute. Every year the teams that make it to the final four, and ultimately win the Cup have a 3rd line guy who really elevates his point production in the playoffs.

This year guys like Joel Ward, Steve Downie, Sean Bergenheim, Teddy Purcell and Brad Marchand have emerged as playoff surprises. Ward and Bergenheim lead the playoffs with seven goals after scoring only ten and 14 respectively in 80 regular season games. Fernando Pisani did it for the Oilers in 2006, Maxime Talbot was huge for the Penguins in 2009 and every year it seems some 3rd line guy comes out of nowhere to produce big points.

Most of these guys are grinders, guys who have to battle hard every night in the regular season just to stay in the lineup, and outside of the surprise offensive production, their games don't really change much come playoff time. They just seem more prepared for the constant battles in the playoffs because they've had to play that way most of their careers. 

Who do the Oilers have that fits that description?

Currently I see Ryan Jones and possibly a guy like Teemu Hartikainen. Jones' game isn't flashy, and he certainly won't win points for pretty goals, but his game doesn't vary much from shift-to-shift. He goes up and down his wing, crashes the net and scores most of his goals from three feet out or less.

Jones could be an UFA come July 1st, but when you look at the crop of free agents it makes no sense for the Oilers not to lock him up before then. Jones made $975,000 last season, and even after his surprising 18-goal season, I don't see why he and the Oilers won't agree on a two or three year deal worth between $1.3-$1.5 million/season.

UFA CROP IN JONES' PRICE RANGE

The list of guys who the Oilers could sign instead of Jones isn't that long. There are some guys who'd cost more, but if you are looking in the $1.4 million range Jones might be the best bargain they can find.

NAME                               LAST CONTRACT
Scottie Upshall                    $2.25 million
Brooks Laich                        $2.067 million
Chad Larose                        $1.7 million
Chris Higgins                       $1.6 million
Joel Ward                              $1.5 million
Tomas Kopecky                   $1.2 million
Curtis Glencross                 $1.2 million
Vern Fiddler                          $1.1 million
Max Talbot                             $1.05 million
Raffi Torres                           $1 million
Ben Eager                             $965, 000
Brian Sutherby                     $812,000
Body Gordon                        $800,000
Ville Leino                             $800,000
Eric Belanger                       $750,000
Sean Bergenheim              $700,000
Tanner Glass                      $625,000

Talbot, Glencross, Laich and Leino will definitely garner some attention, if they aren't re-signed prior to July 1st, but do any of those other names jump out at you as guaranteed upgrades over Jones? 

Even though we only saw him for a short stint, Hartikainen opened a lot of eyes and I spoke to two different AHL coaches this past week and both told me they think he is a bull and is a sure bet to be a consistent NHL 3rd liner, with the potential to chip in offensively.

The Oilers need another guy similar to a Jones or Hartikainen, but they are hard to find, so Tambellini either has to make a smart, subtle trade to acquire one or they have to draft one. They might have one in either Tyler Pitlick or Curtis Hamilton, but I'd like to see them acquire one with some NHL experience, because those two are likely a few years away from playing in Edmonton.

QUICK GLANCES

  •  If Patrice Bergeron is out for more than the first two games, the Bruins will be in tough against the Lightning. Bergeron has been great, and if he is out then the Nathan Horton line will have to carry more of the load. Horton's line was dominant against Philly, and it will be interesting to see if Eric Brewer and Matthias Ohlund can control that line starting Saturday.
     
  • Besides Sidney Crosby, I don't think anyone is better than Pavel Datsyuk. He has unbelievable skill in the offensive zone, but his dogged determination on the puck in the other zones separates him from all the rest. If he cheated defensively now and then I bet he'd score 110 points every year.
     
  • Do you remember when Philadelphia offered Ryan Kesler $1.9 million on a one-year deal in September of 2006. Many around the league thought the Flyers were just being dickish, but it sure looks like they knew something about Kesler that the rest of the league hadn't seen until last year. Even if you hate the Canucks or Kesler, you have to admit he is a hell of a player. I don't think it is a coincidence that once he stopped be so prickly towards the media off the ice, and so mouthy on the ice that his play improved. It wastes a lot of mental energy sparing with the media, especially in Vancouver where many, but not all, of them truly love the Canucks.
     
  • The first round of this year's playoffs was the best two-week stretch of hockey I've seen in years, and I'm including the Olympics. We had nine straight days of overtime games, four games sevens and I can't recall an entire country, excluding BC, cheering so hard for one team to lose. It was awesome. 
     
  • Jeromy Roenick went a bit far with the word "gutless" when describing Patrick Marleau's play so far in the playoffs, but had he just used lazy or "void of caring" I doubt anyone would have complained. It is Roenick's job to speak his mind. The next day Jeff Marek tweeted that Roenick stood them up for a radio interview. I thought that was just as classless to be honest. I've had many guests either flat out forget about an appearance or blow it off because of a meeting and I didn't complain on twitter about it. Turns out Roenick was having a surprise lunch with his wife and kids and ended up doing the show the next day. Analysts are paid to rip or applaud a player's performance, radio hosts shouldn't moan publicly when a guy doesn't come on their show.
     
  •  A huge thank you to all the listeners who donated during the TEAM 1260 radiothon from the Stollery last Thursday. It is an emotional day, and I'm sure it is hard for you to listen to some of the stories, but you helped raise almost $450,000 in one day. Thanks for your kind hearts and big wallets. 
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One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor
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#101 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 12 2011, 04:25PM
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Woodguy wrote:

Thr underlying numbers being refered to here are scoring chances being tracked by Dennis King.

He wasn't tracking them when O'Sullivan was an Oiler, and I don't think any public website was publishing any Oiler scoring chances.

So whatever underlying numbers were being used to defend O'Sullivan, they were not Scoring Chances.

I believe it was shooting % for and against used to support O'Sullivan, same numbers have been used against Jones.

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#103 Oilfan00
May 12 2011, 04:31PM
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I don't think signing Jones to a 2 year deal at 1.5 is an issue, like someone said it doesn't prevent anyone from coming in, if he does well in the two years bring him back if he doesnt lat him walk if he sucks after the first year and someone from OKC is flat out better put Jones on waivers and send him to OKC doesnt hurt the cap and I am sure Katz has rolls of toilet paper worth more then 1.5 million.

Also sign Fiddler and Upshall

Jones-Fiddler-Upshall fourth line would be nice.

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#104 Woodguy
May 12 2011, 04:31PM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

Guys, i'm in a pinch here and hope you can help me out....is it still acceptible to chill your beer in the water tank on the toilet when you've exhausted all other options?

Always acceptable to use the toilet tank.

Cold water in the tub is good too if your companions are squeemish about pulling a bevy out of the toilet tank.

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#105 Robin Brownlee
May 12 2011, 04:33PM
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OilFan wrote:

WOW! LOL It is obvious you haven't seen Brownlee....

Actually, it seems obvious to me Souby has "seen" Brownlee. That, or he's done his homework. Smart money, Souby. Smart money.

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#106 Woodguy
May 12 2011, 04:33PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

I believe it was shooting % for and against used to support O'Sullivan, same numbers have been used against Jones.

Ah, Shooting % argument.

I understand what you are refering too now, thanks.

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#108 Dipstick
May 12 2011, 04:48PM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

Guys, i'm in a pinch here and hope you can help me out....is it still acceptible to chill your beer in the water tank on the toilet when you've exhausted all other options?

Saves water in two ways. Very environmentally friendly.

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#109 spOILer
May 12 2011, 05:01PM
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We're going to offer Jones more than what we offered Glencross on his first renewal?

He's nowhere near as effective a player, and barring another apocalyptic year of team injuries, he's never going to see this amount of ice time again.

$1.2M for one year, max. If he can repeat it, we will talk long term. He's one effin year away from a waiver wire pick up for puck sake.

And another $5 on BJG vs. "The Censor and Self-Appointed Guardian of Writing Style By Way of Physical Threat". He has it coming to him.

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#110 russ99
May 12 2011, 05:21PM
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If we're supposedly following the Blackhawks rebuild model, is there any chance Jones could develop into a Patrick Sharp-like player?

That may be worth going a bit higher on a year deal.

Also, decent UFAs sign primarily because of two factors - more money and more ice time. IMO, the Oilers look to offer neither.

In hope I'm pleasantly surprised otherwise.

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#111 mayorpoop
May 12 2011, 05:24PM
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spOILer wrote:

We're going to offer Jones more than what we offered Glencross on his first renewal?

He's nowhere near as effective a player, and barring another apocalyptic year of team injuries, he's never going to see this amount of ice time again.

$1.2M for one year, max. If he can repeat it, we will talk long term. He's one effin year away from a waiver wire pick up for puck sake.

And another $5 on BJG vs. "The Censor and Self-Appointed Guardian of Writing Style By Way of Physical Threat". He has it coming to him.

we need to stop denying possible returns of players for a few hundred thousand dollars already. honestly we have souray sitting and earning bucket loads in the AHL and everyone is kosher with that.

jones at 1.5 for 2yrs, make the deal. look at the prospects that are reported to be replacing him eventually, they are at least those yrs away.

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#112 NastyNate
May 12 2011, 05:30PM
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@russ99

Patrick Sharp? THE Patrick Sharp? Same one who scored 34 goals this year? Was that sarcasm? I am confused....

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#113 Wax Man Riley
May 12 2011, 05:43PM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

Guys, i'm in a pinch here and hope you can help me out....is it still acceptible to chill your beer in the water tank on the toilet when you've exhausted all other options?

Be a real man and drink it warm!

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#116 Suntory Hanzo
May 12 2011, 06:36PM
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@Quicksilver ballet

depends what you're pinching.

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#117 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
May 12 2011, 06:52PM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

Guys, i'm in a pinch here and hope you can help me out....is it still acceptible to chill your beer in the water tank on the toilet when you've exhausted all other options?

as long as that tank has never been subjected to an upper decker, all signs point to an answer of yes

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#118 Bucknuck
May 12 2011, 07:04PM
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@Jason Gregor

NO kidding. I like your comment about showing some loyalty to the people that actually want to be here. It is the starting point of hometown discounts I would think... once the team is winning and wants to keep it's core together.

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#119 DSF
May 12 2011, 07:17PM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

Guys, i'm in a pinch here and hope you can help me out....is it still acceptible to chill your beer in the water tank on the toilet when you've exhausted all other options?

I'm guessing, if you have running water in your toilet, you also have access to what we in the civilized world call a sink.

Sit down on your toilet and swivel your head from side to side and, if you see a concave receptacle that would be a sink.

Now, most often they are white in colour although, if you live in a seedy apartment it may be Harvest Gold. However, if you live in one of those trendy yuppie lofts, if may be Stainless Steel. You can tell it's Stainless Steel by all the oily fingerprints on it which, if you think about it for a moment, renders the "Stainless" moniker rather null and void.

Once you have recognized the "sink", fill it with frozen water and place your beer among the floes for a refreshing reward.

If you don't have running water, I would strongly advise against placing your beverages anywhere near your toilet although I'm told there are individuals, many living in the Ozarks, who like their beer that way. (More filling) :)

Do you have a firm grasp of the concept of "ice"?

If not, please get back to me for more Hints from Heloise.

Skoal.

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#120 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
May 12 2011, 07:23PM
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DSF wrote:

I'm guessing, if you have running water in your toilet, you also have access to what we in the civilized world call a sink.

Sit down on your toilet and swivel your head from side to side and, if you see a concave receptacle that would be a sink.

Now, most often they are white in colour although, if you live in a seedy apartment it may be Harvest Gold. However, if you live in one of those trendy yuppie lofts, if may be Stainless Steel. You can tell it's Stainless Steel by all the oily fingerprints on it which, if you think about it for a moment, renders the "Stainless" moniker rather null and void.

Once you have recognized the "sink", fill it with frozen water and place your beer among the floes for a refreshing reward.

If you don't have running water, I would strongly advise against placing your beverages anywhere near your toilet although I'm told there are individuals, many living in the Ozarks, who like their beer that way. (More filling) :)

Do you have a firm grasp of the concept of "ice"?

If not, please get back to me for more Hints from Heloise.

Skoal.

edit: not wasting my time

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#121 DSF
May 12 2011, 08:21PM
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cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan wrote:

edit: not wasting my time

I believe you just did.

Every keystroke has an impact on Gaia.

It's called the "Butterfly Effect"

You just killed a baby seal.

Some day you will recognize this.

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#122 Quicksilver ballet
May 12 2011, 08:33PM
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Wax Man Riley wrote:

Be a real man and drink it warm!

I'm at the conclusion of a 4 yr study Wax Man. My findings reveal that alcohol considerably reduces stress in the workplace. Studies were conducted in 12 of the largest municipalities in Alberta.

Did you know that 1 in 10 workplace mensrooms are concealing atleast one 6 pack of beer?

Later in the work week (thurs/friday) you'll find alcohol hidden in 1 out of 8 thrones in the ladies washrooms.

Please report back if you find further damning evidence in your workplace......kay?

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#123 Team Hoppy
May 12 2011, 08:45PM
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Now, I'm not saying the Nuge is Datsyuk, but seeing that a small guy can be so effective, and even outwork larger guys, should put some of us at ease over the size issue with Hoppy. Its the size of the fight in the dog. Look at big Marleau, and what a Marlin he's been so far.

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#124 dawgbone
May 12 2011, 08:51PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

If it a two year deal at $1.3 a season how is that really that bad of a contract? That was my point.

The Oilers aren't a cap team and even if Jones only scores 12 goals or 14 goals I don't think it would be that gross of an overpayment.

His game was pretty consistent all season. He goes to the front of the net, and that's where most goals come from. I don't see it being that big of a risk.

It all adds up.

On it's own $1.3 isn't a bad gamble. But when you factor in other gambles made by this management team the mistakes start to add up (if this contract turns out to be a mistake).

The issue isn't just his goals, it's what he provides vs what he gives up. I'm sure Rob Schremp could provide 12 or 14 goals in the same role but he's probably giving it up the other way.

What worries me isn't the goals drying up for Jones. What worries me is the pucks going into the Oilers net. You get hemmed in the defensive zone long enough and the puck eventually finds it's way into your net.

That being said, he did play rather well on the PK in the 2nd half of the season so if he can keep that up he's got some value there.

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#125 Quicksilver ballet
May 12 2011, 08:51PM
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Size isn't an issue with Hopkins at all, strength is his biggest concern. Within 3 yrs Ryan will top 6'1 and 185 lbs.

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#126 positivebrontefan
May 12 2011, 09:13PM
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big joe grizzley wrote:

question..are the oilers tough enough..answer..is is big joe grizzley from indo china..hell no,i'm from etown baby!and i like tough hardnose hockey,and i like tough mean nasty hockey players,you win with guts and nads, not with softeness and nadlessness! hey tambo bring in a few alfa males and lets get this party started...i've been talking on this for freaken years,its time to get it done...renney said it best ''it hurts to win''....bjg is out

WTF?

You are out...of your mind. What are you a cartoon?

And on a relevant note...I say sign Jones for three years at somewhere below 1.5. Low risk, creates a sign of loyalty for a job well done but it isnt gonna break the bank ala Horcoff.

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#127 dawgbone
May 12 2011, 09:15PM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Creating but never capitalizing doesn't help you win. Some guys can always create lots and never score that much...Marchant and Cogliano come to mind.

And unless you have stats that this was a trend for Jones in Nashville I wouldn't put as much stock into that as I would his goal scoring.

His goal production has been consistent over three years.

In his three season his goals per game has been .15 then .16 and .22 last year. He has improved each year and not by a disgusting margin. If he scores 15 next year in 82 games he'd be a .18. Not that unrealistic really.

Except Cogliano did the exact same thing in his first 2 years in the NHL as Jones did this year. He scored 18 goals in each of his first 2 years, shooting 18.4% his rookie year and 15.5% in his sophmore year. It turned out that it was unsustainable.

Ultimately the problem is the data we have on Jones is too small to draw conclusions on. Cogs was fine until he stopped scoring and now the fans can't wait to get rid of him.

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#128 positivebrontefan
May 12 2011, 09:21PM
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dawgbone wrote:

Except Cogliano did the exact same thing in his first 2 years in the NHL as Jones did this year. He scored 18 goals in each of his first 2 years, shooting 18.4% his rookie year and 15.5% in his sophmore year. It turned out that it was unsustainable.

Ultimately the problem is the data we have on Jones is too small to draw conclusions on. Cogs was fine until he stopped scoring and now the fans can't wait to get rid of him.

I'd still take Cogs at a mil a year for what he did last year.

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#129 OilFan
May 12 2011, 10:23PM
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Robin Brownlee wrote:

Actually, it seems obvious to me Souby has "seen" Brownlee. That, or he's done his homework. Smart money, Souby. Smart money.

LOL. So true

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#131 speeds
May 13 2011, 12:09AM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Who are the bad contracts on the Oilers? Horcoff and Gilbert at the moment. Other than that who is dead weight? Khabibulin's might only hurt in the final year, because next season he and Dubnyk will combine for $4.5 million.

The Oilers don't have many damaging contracts so even if JOnes only scores 12-14 goals, his contract won't be that overpriced.

Of the 13 players that currently have a contract for next season, I think one could make some kind of argument that Khabibulin, Horcoff, Gilbert, Brule, Fraser, and Foster are "bad" contracts. Personally, there's a couple there that I might quibble about, but I think that would be the list.

To me, Khabibulin's contract is the worst one on the club.

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#132 speeds
May 13 2011, 12:14AM
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I can see the argument for Horcoff as well, in terms of "worst" contract.

I guess I was just thinking that, if I were the GM trying to win next season, and I were allowed to magically remove one of the two contracts, I think erasing Khabibulin's would help the team improve more than would dumping Horcoff's.

That said, if you told me that it made more sense to remove Horcoff's deal because it goes longer into the future when the team might wish to use the cap space in some other manner, I think that's a pretty reasonable argument.

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#133 Biowolf
May 13 2011, 12:26AM
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The hockey being played right now certainly has no relation to what the Oilers serve up . The NHL should introduce relegation like in soccer. A year in the minors ould help this team (and its fans) a lot.

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#134 knobby k
May 13 2011, 01:13AM
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After Tambo tried to pull that greasy move by making Jones the last minute, pre-trade-deadline contract offer I wouldn't be very impressed as his agent. To me they tried to lowball him and tried to suck him into a panic signing. That may be the way Tambo rolls and it might even be the way KLowe and Katz conduct business but I think it shows a bad faith intention.

I know Jones is not an offensive powerhouse but he gave one hell of alot more honest effort than most of his teammates this year. There are a couple of those free agent players who might sign here if over-paid enough. (read Souray)

Jones played a physically consistent style most nights and showed some durability. Most people on this site seemed to want to dump Jones right from the beginning of the year and bad-mouthed him every chance they got. Stauffer didn't get off Jones back until the end of the season.

With all of the bad signings and blown trades to criticize why rip on this guy? Why quibble over one to two hundred thou. with all of the highly paid self-entitled primadonna jamtarts on this team? Jones is a guy who plays hard. He easily outworked all of the players deemed sacred cows by the Oil and Oil-controlled media. I don't get it.

Don't be surprised if Jones walks rather than sign for an organization that operates the way the Oil seem to roll. Organizational loyalty? My ass. If I got an offer elsewhere that fit my value...I would walk too.

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#135 spOILer
May 13 2011, 05:25AM
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Contrary to what you might think jason, a $400,000 raise is not a slap in the face.

Ask Cogliano.

At some point this team needs a philosophy and a discipline when it comes to contracts. One poster above brought up Souray as a defense for signing Jonesy to two years. Is that as stupid as it sounds? I suspect so.

How can the Club offer a multi-year promise at a premium to a player who has never delivered multiple years at this level at his age?

That is a dangerous precedent to set.

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#136 Matt Henderson
May 13 2011, 06:39AM
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DSF wrote:

I believe you just did.

Every keystroke has an impact on Gaia.

It's called the "Butterfly Effect"

You just killed a baby seal.

Some day you will recognize this.

Most of the time I think DSF has absolutely nothing to add of any value, but this actually made me laugh.*

*Is laughing at the thought of killing a baby seal a sign that I'm a bad person, or should I just be happy that I can still feel any kind of emotion after watching the Oilers play 30th placed hockey for two straight years?

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#137 Sheldon "Oilers Fan for Life!!!"
May 13 2011, 07:46AM
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There are some strange concepts on the Nation in the last week. I chalk it up to both Vancouver and San-Jose being in the WCF. I suspect all your brainwaves are discombobulated. I suspect it will get worse as one of them is going to the Stanley cup Final. I know you all really can not believe this is true and believe you are in the dream state. (The nightmare one! not were you are dreaming about when you met your wife.) Because of this you believe you can manipulate the circumstances of the "story" and are trying to some how have the Oilers come out of the fog and win the Stanley cup. All I can say Is "Anyone have any more Lunesta?!"

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#138 knee deep in it
May 13 2011, 07:49AM
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if this was a pure hockey dcision, them signing Jones might not be the best.

Tambo also has to think of the season ticket holders who have not seen a playoff game in ages. Those guys need something to cheer for.

Jones is pure effort and brings a smile to the faces in the crowd. Sometimes, he is one of the few good reasons for being at the game. For that reason, offer him 1.5 mill for 2 years.

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#139 Pajamah
May 13 2011, 07:57AM
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Sheldon "Oilers Fan for Life!!!" wrote:

There are some strange concepts on the Nation in the last week. I chalk it up to both Vancouver and San-Jose being in the WCF. I suspect all your brainwaves are discombobulated. I suspect it will get worse as one of them is going to the Stanley cup Final. I know you all really can not believe this is true and believe you are in the dream state. (The nightmare one! not were you are dreaming about when you met your wife.) Because of this you believe you can manipulate the circumstances of the "story" and are trying to some how have the Oilers come out of the fog and win the Stanley cup. All I can say Is "Anyone have any more Lunesta?!"

Yeah, right, i'm sure all that happened

let me guess, TB swept the #1 seed Washington Capitals out of the conference semi-finals too?

*wiped from memory, Total Recall-style*

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#140 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 13 2011, 09:00AM
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I wonder if we are the only fan base out there that goes 4 months and 1,000+ comments on the merits of giving a 3rd/4th liner a 200k raise vs a 400k raise.

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#141 Woodguy
May 13 2011, 09:10AM
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Jason Gregor wrote:

Creating but never capitalizing doesn't help you win. Some guys can always create lots and never score that much...Marchant and Cogliano come to mind.

And unless you have stats that this was a trend for Jones in Nashville I wouldn't put as much stock into that as I would his goal scoring.

His goal production has been consistent over three years.

In his three season his goals per game has been .15 then .16 and .22 last year. He has improved each year and not by a disgusting margin. If he scores 15 next year in 82 games he'd be a .18. Not that unrealistic really.

Creating but never capitalizing doesn't help you win

Goal scoring is subject to huge swings in luck.

Creating more scoring chances than you give up will create more goals than you give up in the long term.

And unless you have stats that this was a trend for Jones in Nashville I wouldn't put as much stock into that as I would his goal scoring.

More data is always better. We don't have Nashville's scoring chances for when he played, but one of the best GMs in the league (Poile) put him on waivers. We can read a little into that.

Back to more data. In the last 3 years Jones had 251 shots and a shooting percentage of 13.1%

In terms of the scoring chance data there are 427 points of data. He had 163 SCF and 264 SCA for .381, truly abysmal and far worse than anyone on the Oilers not named McIntyre.

So I would trust the scoring chance data over the s% data since there are more points of data available in the SC metric.

He is also consistently dragging down other players on the Oilers in terms of SC, which suggest what we are seeing there is real, since it is being replicated all over the roster when they play with Jones.

If Jones scores 15 next year, I'd wager he'd still clock in at about a -10.

You can get a better player than him at that money.

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#142 mayorpoop
May 13 2011, 09:19AM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

I wonder if we are the only fan base out there that goes 4 months and 1,000+ comments on the merits of giving a 3rd/4th liner a 200k raise vs a 400k raise.

lol...yep. we is crazy fans like that.

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#143 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 13 2011, 09:22AM
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Woodguy wrote:

Creating but never capitalizing doesn't help you win

Goal scoring is subject to huge swings in luck.

Creating more scoring chances than you give up will create more goals than you give up in the long term.

And unless you have stats that this was a trend for Jones in Nashville I wouldn't put as much stock into that as I would his goal scoring.

More data is always better. We don't have Nashville's scoring chances for when he played, but one of the best GMs in the league (Poile) put him on waivers. We can read a little into that.

Back to more data. In the last 3 years Jones had 251 shots and a shooting percentage of 13.1%

In terms of the scoring chance data there are 427 points of data. He had 163 SCF and 264 SCA for .381, truly abysmal and far worse than anyone on the Oilers not named McIntyre.

So I would trust the scoring chance data over the s% data since there are more points of data available in the SC metric.

He is also consistently dragging down other players on the Oilers in terms of SC, which suggest what we are seeing there is real, since it is being replicated all over the roster when they play with Jones.

If Jones scores 15 next year, I'd wager he'd still clock in at about a -10.

You can get a better player than him at that money.

"You can get a better player than him at that money."

This is the whole crux of the argument though, sure you CAN get a better player then him for the money... however it is highly unlikely that we actually do that (because theirs not alot of those guys available via UFA this year, the ones that are available are less likely to sign here then other locations.... and quite frankly I have 0 faith in Tambillini actually identifying and securing whomever that is to relatively fair contract).

I don't think anyone has a real issue with replacing Jones with GlenX or whomever(though we probably should be signing 2-3 of these guys with or without Jones).

What I do have a problem with is replacing Jones with Ben Ondrus or Colin Mcdonald.... which I think is the most likely outcome if we let Jones walk.

You throw a guy like Jones away when you have 8 superior wingers, not just simply because you THINK you can find a better replacement.

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#144 Team Centerman
May 13 2011, 09:23AM
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I guess it all boils down to, do Oilers management feel that Jones is a usefull long term player? Because if he is crap defensively, maybe the goals don't matter, like Potulny (Not saying Jones is Potulny). Or, if they like the players all around game, then just give him the scratch. 1.2,1.3,1.4, who cares, lets not lose a good player over chicken scraps again - See Smytty, Glencross, Hejda, etc. Don't be stubborn Oilers management, do the right thing.

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#145 Mantastic
May 13 2011, 09:33AM
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Biowolf wrote:

The hockey being played right now certainly has no relation to what the Oilers serve up . The NHL should introduce relegation like in soccer. A year in the minors ould help this team (and its fans) a lot.

but we don't have another tier league, AHL won't work because it's a farm team of an NHL club. CHL clubs are junior, ECHL has no chance in competiting because they are arguably 2 tiers lower then the NHL

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#146 Westcoastoil
May 13 2011, 09:39AM
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To all the naysayers: Does it really matter if he gets 1.3 or 1.5 - we aren't anywhere near the cap. A little extra money to keep a guy who busts his ass, gets his face dirty, has a little size and can pop 15 goals, wants to be here and by all accounts is popular with his teammates. He only had 1 full and 2 half seasons, so it's not unreasonable to think that the weak parts in his game can improve. How much more do you expect from a 3/4 line winger on a rebuilding team.

Perhaps more importantly keeping a guy like Jones tells the rest of the players that mgmt. is walking the walk when it comes to the team rebuilding its identity and character. For where they are now, loyalty from mgmt for hard work and bleeding copper & blue is real currency.

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#147 Westcoastoil
May 13 2011, 09:42AM
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Since the 3rd/4th lines are the topic of the day (good god we need playoffs!) - how much time did Hartikainen spend this year at centre vs. wing?

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#148 Sheldon "Oilers Fan for Life!!!"
May 13 2011, 09:42AM
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Westcoastoil wrote:

To all the naysayers: Does it really matter if he gets 1.3 or 1.5 - we aren't anywhere near the cap. A little extra money to keep a guy who busts his ass, gets his face dirty, has a little size and can pop 15 goals, wants to be here and by all accounts is popular with his teammates. He only had 1 full and 2 half seasons, so it's not unreasonable to think that the weak parts in his game can improve. How much more do you expect from a 3/4 line winger on a rebuilding team.

Perhaps more importantly keeping a guy like Jones tells the rest of the players that mgmt. is walking the walk when it comes to the team rebuilding its identity and character. For where they are now, loyalty from mgmt for hard work and bleeding copper & blue is real currency.

True! I really agree with your point though I did not see it that way. We will not be in trouble cap wise either way.

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#149 Team Hoppy
May 13 2011, 10:04AM
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I want to see the Oilers step up to the plate and let the team know we want to win, by signing a 4C and 4D this summer. Those are not impossible to get, you may have to pay a bit on a 2 year contract, but that would make a difference on our team. Some veteran guys to provide a bit of leadership and show the kids the way whilst keeping the team somewhat stable. Even a Marty Reasoner would not hurt. Jamal Mayers, these types.

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#150 ricky p
May 13 2011, 10:11AM
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We need players. Jones was a player for us last year. That is a pretty obvious stat.

Glencross was a player for us. We let him slip away. Tambo, sign them both and throw them on a line with Cogs. Probably be our best line on many a night.

It is so painfully obvious that the Tambo/Klowe rebuild is actually 5 more years in the making. The Oilers would struggle in the AHL for the next couple seasons. Fill a few hole Tambo, so we are all not sitting here a year from now discussing who we will take with the first pick and whether we should sign Cogs for 1.1 or 1.2 because his shooting percentage fell .0000001 over the last ten games of the season.

Real hockey would be a nice change in this town. Still don't think Tambo can deliver that in 2, 4 or ten years down the road.

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