There’s No Easy Answer
Jonathan Willis
May 17 2011 08:20AM
After two seasons in the basement, I think it would be fair to say that most people – from fans to the media to the folks actually running the team – are ready to see some improvement from the Edmonton Oilers.
The Oilers biggest weakness over the last two seasons has been goaltending. Honestly, picking through the list of Oilers’ weaknesses over the past couple of seasons is a bit like shooting fish in a barrel, so I won’t bother – but even with all those problems, goaltending has stuck out like a sore thumb. Whether it was throwing the Deslauriers/Dubnyk tandem into the fire in 2009-10, or letting Dubnyk sit while Nikolai Khabibulin enjoyed the red light behind him, the Oilers haven’t had solid goaltending since Dwayne Roloson was let go.
There’s a simple, two-part solution to this particular problem: first dump Khabibulin, and second, sign Tomas Vokoun.
Before I get into the mechanics of making that move, I want to show the three year averages for Vokoun, Khabibulin and Dubnyk and then show the likely impact on the Oilers’ goals-against totals.
Three-Year Averages
| Player | EV SV% | PK SV% | PP SV% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Vokoun | 0.931 | 0.889 | 0.931 |
| Devan Dubnyk | 0.914 | 0.87 | 1 |
| Nikolai Khabibulin | 0.919 | 0.841 | 0.927 |
Immediate Impact
The following table shows three scenarios, each modeled on the Oilers shots-against totals from last season. The first line shows what actually happened last season. The second line shows last season re-vamped using the three-year averages for Dubnyk and Khabibulin, and assuming that Khabibulin got Gerber’s starts. The third scenario uses the shots-against totals from last season, but this time assumes 60 games from Vokoun (his three-year average) and 22 from Dubnyk.
| Scenario | EV Shots | EV SV% | EV GA | PK Shots | PK SV% | PK GA | PP Shots | PP SV% | PP GA | Total GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last Season | 2021 | 0.914 | 174 | 495 | 0.851 | 74 | 71 | 0.972 | 2 | 250 |
| Khabibulin/Dubnyk | 2021 | 0.917 | 168 | 495 | 0.852 | 73 | 71 | 0.957 | 3 | 244 |
| Vokoun/Dubnyk | 2021 | 0.926 | 150 | 495 | 0.884 | 57 | 71 | 0.95 | 4 | 211 |
So, to summarize:
Last season was a bad one for Khabibulin, and if we assume he regresses to his average performance of the last three seasons, we can expect the Oilers to improve by six goals against – which is the equivalent of a single win. This would move them from 30th in the league to 30th in the league, barring other improvements.
If we plug in 60 games of Tomas Vokoun at his average performance for the last three seasons (behind a terrible Florida defense), we can expect the Oilers to improve by 39 goals – the equivalent of 6-1/2 wins. That would carry the Oilers from dead last to 26th in the NHL, all else being equal.
What’s Involved?
Buying out Nikolai Khabibulin wasn’t an option I’d given much thought to – until I read Scott Reynold’s opinion piece over at Copper & Blue last week. Essentially, the Oilers are still stuck with Khabibulin’s $3.75-million cap hit for the next two years (there’s no getting around the over-35 rule), but they could save themselves $2.5 million in actual dollars while – best of all – no longer having him on the team.
It probably wouldn’t take a lot of dough to sign Vokoun, either – the goalie is almost criminally underrated (fun comparison: in Khabibulin’s single good post-lockout season, the one that convinced the Oilers to sign him, he posted a 0.919 SV% - the same total as Vokoun’s worst post-lockout season). I’d be very surprised if a three-year, $12.0-million offer didn’t get a deal done – it’s less than Vokoun’s making now, but would still be one of the richest UFA goalie offers over the last few years. He’s also easily worth the money – his save percentage is off the charts year-in and year-out, no matter how bad the team he plays for is, and for those who argue he can’t get the job done when the games really matter, I’d point to his record at the World Championships, where he’s 23-4-1 with a 0.942 SV%, which is just slightly better than his work in the 2010 Olympics (3-2-0, 0.936 SV%).
Another fun point with Vokoun is his age – he turns 35 on July 2nd, but thanks to the way the NHL calculates age, he wouldn’t be signing a 35+ contract (the NHL calculates based on a player’s age on June 30 the summer before the contract takes effect).
Is It Worth It?
Yes. Vokoun’s a truly elite goaltender in a poor market, and he’ll be overshadowed by Ilya Bryzgalov and the bogus idea that he isn’t a championship-calibre goalie.
What about the fact that the Oilers are so bad that Vokoun wouldn’t have made a big difference this season? While an issue, the Oilers need to start winning some time, and I can’t think of a better way to knock 39 goals-against off the equation. Using the goaltending numbers from last season, the other way the Oilers could do it would be by preventing a little over 400 more shots.
Besides, the big flaw with assuming things will stay the way they are is that they don’t. The Oilers should be better at scoring goals next season – despite firing all the guys people hated and bringing in a new coach and a bunch of offensively-talented youngsters, they actually lost 20 goals from 2009-10, so there’s nowhere to go but up (though of course I said that last year, too).
The Oilers need to try and start winning eventually. This is a big first step.
Yes, sadly, I think KL has Katz wrapped around his little finger. KL should have been gone after that Horcoff contract.
The only numbers that matter are the wins, both were sub .500 in that category. Lets not put this dog poo on the table and try to analyze whats in it.
Dubnyk showed me something with 10 days to go in the season. He went up against the Calgary Flames with a chance to put a nail in their coffin and blew it bigtime. A 4-1 lead 5 minutes into the third and he gassed it. It's really strange that this is the only loss i remember from all of last year. As bad as Khabby played all yr the only one i remember is this HNIC Dubnyk loss.
You win this round Willis, well played! Totally on board for the buyout now.
I agree on the Penner statement as I feel he really needs/needed to be pushed all the time. Some people only perform with a little fear. I think Dustin is one of them. As to "Character players" being code for not much skill I also seem to remember that term being applied to Hall by ST after his season ending fight. One thing that gives me hope is when ST ID's areas of weakness such as faceoff skill and grit he seems to say all the stuff we do on here so I think he is playing a patient waiting game. We shall soon see if we are at the end of that or if it is still 12 months away. I think its is time to "throw some coal in to the boiler and let the pressure build in to forward progress".
So Vokoun on last yrs. Oilers team would've been just as bad as Khabibulin?
By that logic, Dubnyk on the Florida Panthers would have been the hands down favourite to win the Vezina, and Gerber would be collecting 15million dollar/season offers from every team in the league as a UFA.
If those irrelevant numbers tell the truth then by all means sign your Martin Gerber to a 15 million dollar deal. Who gives a rats arse about Dubnyk then...
The kid played 25 nothing games on the lousiest team in the league and finsihed with a sub .500 record. Tell me how this impresses you in anyway shape or form?
@Quicksilver ballet
Save Percentage is not an irrelevant number. That is Universally agreed upon by everyone except you, I guess.
@ Quicksilver:
Judging goalies by win totals is incredibly misguided.
That's the kind of thinking that gets Andrew Raycroft on the cover of The Hockey News.
Not sure he had much choice in the matter JW, usually happens to Calder trophy winners, doesn't it?.
We need a 108 goal differential increase to make the playoffs. I excpect 30 more from the kids. If goaltending can get us 39 we need about 39 more. How much can we realistically expect a 3c (Belanger) and a top d would get us?
1. I don't think we have any confirmation from anywhere that there are any nominal savings to buying out NK. The formula might well be that you pay him what you signed him for and his full cap hit counts. He might as well be on the roster somewhere.
2. There are other teams possibly looking for vet #1 goalies and there aren't many quality choices available: COL, PHA, PHO, WAS, FLA themselves. He's likely going to want to play for a contender or not move. And it is utterly daft to think he's under-rated by NHL professionals.
3. FLA paid a tremendous price to Nashville for Vokoun based on an identical philosphy to the one expressed in the OP above--that stellar netminding will shave off GA and add wins. Where has it gotten them?
4. I'm not convinced the analysis in the OP is correct. Do we have any evidence that we can move goalies and their SPs will remain the same? Maybe we do, I honestly don't know. But since we're talking about alleviating goals against, and since that is a team stat and since the rest of the team is essentially the same, can we expect goals against per game to change that much?
Gerber feels that he could have a shot at a backup position in the NHL and a one way deal. I am sure if that closes up he will entertain the thought of being back in OKC.
They were talking about this a few weeks back on Oilers Lunch!
[double-post]
How many goals do you expect Dubnyk to score?
Wins just aren't based on the goaltender. It would be nice if goalies could save the games that they give up 4 goals for when their team scores 5 and saves the shutouts for when their team scores just 1 but that's not how it works.
The solution to all problems Khabbibulin is as follows: 1 – Trade him to any really cash-strapped team for a draft pick/prospect/bad contract we don’t care about that fills a hole (whatever we can get or they don’t want) 2 – That team makes a deal with some KHL Squad for him to “retire” and play in Russia for the duration of the contract. He doesn’t show up, said NHL team doesn’t pay him, but keep the salary cap, so they dont need to spend as much to reach the floor 3 – The Oilers send him a care package of Rexall Suppliments and good vodka so there’s no hard feelings 4 - Sign Vokoun
The title says it all, there is no easy answer. The goaltending certainly needs to be better going forward but we could end up back at square one by signing another aging goaltender. One of Dubnyk, Roy or Bunz should hopefully become a number 1 guy in time so I wouldn't be in favour of paying a goaltender who isn't on our roster anymore and another one over 35. Is there any way that Khabi's legal issues force our hand? Unfortunately, given how management and coaching has praised the Bulin Wall, I doubt that we will see a different NHL goaltending tandem for the Oil next season.
You miraculously fail to understand the simple logic in my post.
1) YOU are saying that Khabibulin is at least as good as Vokoun based on the fact that Khabibulin, while his numbers were worse, played on a worse team.
2) IF WHAT YOU SAY IS TRUE, then by the same logic, Dubnyk and Gerber must be SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER than Vokoun because they were substantially better than Khabibulin while playing on the same team. Sure, Gerber only played 3 games, so get rid of him. Dubnyk played a similar amount of games to Khabibulin, so the comparison is valid.
Logic wins every time there big guy.
Most of these numbers you guys are referring to just symbols of success, used by those who are yet to prove themselves. It's a little simpler for me, Khabibulin can play and Dubnyk is yet to show he can carry the load. This is why we seen 35 start 2/3rds of the games last yr, Renney started the goalie whom he felt gave his team the best chance to win.
Logic in numbers and logic in on ice abilities are two different things. Khabibulin returns to form and Dubnyk plays yet fewer games next season.
Dog Train wrote:
Long story short, no. That ship has sailed; if the Oilers were going to do something in that vein, they'd have done it long since. If that possibility ever existed, they're stuck with him now.
I think the final decision will come down to actual money. Tambi can't afford to park Souray and Khabi's contracts in the AHL or buy both them out. That's the kind of money that would get a GM Fired! Along with Nilssons salary.
I know Katz has deep pockets, but even billionaires don't like to throw that much money away.
Khabi will be here next year unless he's 1) in Jail and 2) can't get entry into Canada due to a criminal record. IMO, the 2nd scenario is preferable, as he would be in breach of his contract and he could be suspended with out pay nor counting against the cap.
Quite possibly the most bizzar person I've ever come accross.
I'm with you Team Hall and somewhat agree with QS...forget about the goaltending, hand DD the starters job or at least split the games. The last thing the Oilers need to worry about is the goaltending tandem...it's fine the way it is.
I agree with those that say there's no point in adding some other starting vet netminder and pushing DD further back...he's starting to come, so let that trend continue, give him more games. It would be nice to add a top 3/4 d-man if possible, some toughness in the bottom six and most of all stay healthy for a change.
I am against buying out anybody this season. There is simply no point. If we sign Vokoun, then only for 1 year (overpay him), while Khabibulin is in the minors, then trade Vocoun at the trade deadline to a contender for their 1st round pick. Bring back Bulin to finish the season. I project us finishing between 10-12th place next season. Then we have 2 first-round picks and don't have to buy out Bulin.
Khabi returns to what form?
He's statistically the worst goaltender in the NHL since the lockout (amongst goalies who have played all 6 years).
He's also injury prone and getting older. What form do you expect him to revert to?
And I don't think Renney thought Khabibulin gave them the best chance to win. It was more along the lines of trying to salvage this disaster of a contract.
Who is a worse tandem?
The only worse tandem I can think of is the Islanders post-Roloson, and that's just based on name recognition, not actual play.
Thier is no rational, resonable way you can argue a tamdem is "fine the way it is" when one guy is putting up some of the worst numbers in the league.
Well, that Anderson/Budaj tandem was pretty bad, as was the Philly merry go round. Just two examples. Besides, when you have one good goalie and one poor one, that can't be the worst tandem, remember the Conkanen project?
Flyers goaltending actually had really solid regular season numbers, it was just a PO meltdown.
You're right, Colorado's was probably equally as bad (finished 2nd last oddly enough) but I bet you wont find a bunch of Colorado fans saying the goaltending was fine the was it is.
Why would Vokoun want to go to Edmonton instead of say Denver?
$$$$ and term one would think.
Dont think there ever was anything they could do. He never missed a day of work so it's not like they could suspend him for not reporting.
We all seem to recognize how bad Khabi has been but I'm not sure the team does. Renney continued to throw him out there, the media seemed to not notice his bad rebounds and the soft goals he gave up instead focusing on his occasional highlight reel saves. I'd be really surprised if we see any change this offseason because to bring someone else in we'd have to ditch Khabi and I cant see Tambo doing it.
Believe it or not i think Khabibulin will land himself another contract after this one's concluded, can even see it happening here.
If Tambellini can convert that 19th into a top 6 selection, everything changes. He'll surround those kids with a few vets and compete for a playoff spot this year. Khabby's a better goaltender if the puck is in the other end for half the game instead of it being in the Oilers end for three quarters of it.
Nothing changes if your "starter" stops 89% of the shots he faces.
Vokun's last two years save % (.922 and .925) and GAA (2.55 and 2.55)
Rehabby last two years PRIOR to new contract with Oilers, save % (.919 and .909) and GAA (2.33 and 2.63).
Oh also Vokun's injury report from the last 12 months 2011/04/06 Missed 3 games (back spasms). 2011/03/29 Back spasms, day-to-day. 2011/01/25 Missed 1 game (undisclosed). 2011/01/23 Undisclosed, day-to-day. 2010/04/11 Missed the last 2 games of the regular season (back injury). 2010/04/08 Back injury, day-to-day.
Definition of insanity : doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results...
You haven't answered how Khabibulin and Vokoun are similar, outside of age. And you have selective chosen endpoints to appear to strengthen your argument - feel free to note the seasons prior that, where Khabibulin had seasons of .902 in 06/7 and 0.886 in 05/6 and Vokoun had seasons of 0.919 in 07/8 and 0.926 in 08/9, or the past 2 years where Khabibulin has a combined sub 0.900 sv% which is relevant in deciding whether it makes sense to consider replacing Khabi.
There are reasonably arguments against signing Vokoun to an overpay, short team deal (I'm for the idea of signing Vokoun to such a deal, but as always it depends what other options are avaialble), but one of them isn't "he's kinda the same age at the time of the prospective signing as was Khabibulin".
Those were last years facts. Adding a blueliner(s) to go with maybe Smyth and Hartnell, this is a different hockey club.
I'd still try and work a miracle and turn that 19th into a second shot in that top 6.
@ speeds
I am fine with replacing Habby, his time here has been an unmitigated disaster. I was not trying to defend him or justify his signing. But why replace him with another 35 year old goalie, who is only going to sign on with a team to be a starting goalie?
This team is in rebuild mode. Why not allow Dubynk to be the starter. Let him play 55-60 games and see how he handles it. I would much prefer that to signing of another goalie.
I am fine with the second paragraph if that's what the team decides to do. If they've decided internally that they will give Dubnyk 60+ games UNLESS Khabibulin stands on his head and forces them to give him more games, I can't say that's a crazy idea for a rebuilding club, especially if the money you would have spent on Vokoun could then be applied to add a quality F, or D, or two.