The Ugliest Problem Of Them All

Jonathan Willis
May 26 2011 01:41PM

The Edmonton Oilers have a major problem. Actually, given that they’ve been the worst team in the league over the last two years, and they have a solid track record of simply atrocious management since the 2006 Stanley Cup Final, they have a lot of major problems, but one of them towers above the rest: the defense corps.

While the Oilers’ forwards are still on an uphill curve, there is at least some major talent to work with. Taylor Hall is a star in the making, Jordan Eberle wildly surpassed expectations in his rookie season, and others like Mangus Paajarvi, Sam Gagner, Linus Omark and Andrew Cogliano could find roles going forward.

On the blueline, there is no such wealth of young talent. Theo Peckham had a good rookie season, but realistically he’s probably not a regular on a contending team right now, and the road to becoming a top-end shutdown defenseman is both long and uncertain. Martin Marincin had a slower second half to his WHL season, and is years away from regular NHL duty and even further away from being an impact defenseman – assuming that he ever is. Jeff Petry is the closest of the Oilers’ three to being a top-four defenseman; he boasts size and displayed a wide range of skills in his NHL debut, but it would be unwise to lean on him at this point, or do anything more than pencil him in going forward.

This leaves the Oilers with essentially two top-four defenseman. Ladislav Smid, Kurtis Foster, and (assuming he is re-signed) Jim Vandermeer all have good points, but all also have serious flaws that prevent them from being more than depth contributors. I still have some slight hope that Smid will develop into a player capable of complementing another defender on the second pairing, but as it stands he is in over his head on the second pairing.

Tom Gilbert was a popular whipping boy this year; style certainly played a role but I can’t help feeling the fact that he was thrown in way over his head as the team’s number one shutdown defenseman played a role. Gilbert’s been at his best in the past on the second pairing – in a role where he could focus a little more on offense and not have to handle the opposing team’s top lines all the time. Meanwhile, Ryan Whitney had a great year, but the planets aligned to make that happen and he will have difficulty repeating it. Not only that, but he got a disproportionate percentage of offensive zone starts – the point here is not to denigrate Whitney, but simply acknowledge that he wasn’t playing the toughest minutes.

Basically, the team needs an entire top pairing transplanted in, or if we make a pile of favourable assumptions (Whitney stays healthy, Gilbert rebounds, Petry, Smid and Peckham all develop) they might squeak by with just one top defender.

Where will they get that/those defenseman/men? I don’t know. I know Sheldon Souray isn’t the answer, and I have serious doubts that taking a player like Adam Larsson this year will get the job done (because of the typical development curve for defensemen, and based on some of the mixed reviews he has received). That leaves trade or free agency, though the latter has not treated the Oilers well the last few years and the former would require management to do something other than try to lose.

I may not know what the Oilers are going to do, but I do know this: the team needs to address the problem before they can seriously contend.

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Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer. He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report. He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.
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#101 Metal&Oil
May 26 2011, 11:27PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Ya for sure (though I think Gregor was out to lunch on that one)

Probably depends on what players the team you traded down with thought you and the teams to draft before them were thinking of selecting and who the player they covet was.(& vice versa) I could see at least a 2nd round pick being offered if everything fell into place but there are a lot of gambles involved for both teams in that type of trade.

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#102 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 26 2011, 11:45PM
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Metal&Oil wrote:

Probably depends on what players the team you traded down with thought you and the teams to draft before them were thinking of selecting and who the player they covet was.(& vice versa) I could see at least a 2nd round pick being offered if everything fell into place but there are a lot of gambles involved for both teams in that type of trade.

Ya for sure, obviously a pile of variables go into a deal and it would depend on how much seperation each team seen amoungst the top 5 or 6 draft eligble guys.

More a theoritical point though, seen what other teams will spend just to move up a spot or two between 5 and 10 tells me that dropping down from number #1 should easily return you a 2nd+

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#103 Hemmertime
May 26 2011, 11:53PM
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Historically I believe the cost to move up in the top 10 has been either a decent player + 4th and 5th or a 2nd/3rd. Sometimes both a 2nd and Third, Too lazy to look it up right now but comes to mind with a few Burke moves and others

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#104 Metal&Oil
May 27 2011, 12:07AM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Ya for sure, obviously a pile of variables go into a deal and it would depend on how much seperation each team seen amoungst the top 5 or 6 draft eligble guys.

More a theoritical point though, seen what other teams will spend just to move up a spot or two between 5 and 10 tells me that dropping down from number #1 should easily return you a 2nd+

Yep. I watched the NFL Draft last month and the Atlanta Falcons traded 5 draft picks (two first-rounders, a second-rounder and two fourth-rounders) for the 6th overall pick. I know the NFL draft is a much different animal and much deeper then the NHL draft but it does go to show you that in sports if a team covets a player, they will sometimes pay the premium to move up and select that player in a draft.

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#105 raceguy
May 27 2011, 12:28AM
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@OB1,Metal & Crash

I don't know if trolls have tails,but if they do DSF's is planted firmly between legs.Nice job.

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#106 jeanshorts
May 27 2011, 02:35AM
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FYI I was being facetious about the Gilbert thing. But I am glad there was way more of you defending Gilbert than piling on what I said.

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#107 Archaeologuy
May 27 2011, 06:51AM
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@Chris.

Its all about what you think a franchise guy should do. To me a really good shutdown guy isnt enough to be labelled a franchise defenseman. So if he wont be a "franchise" player then its not good value at #1, even if he'll still be very very good.

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#108 knee deep in it
May 27 2011, 06:59AM
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@Chris.

re: Gudbransen

The Panthers screwed him ovre last year. He was ready to play in the NL and the Panthers did not have the money to sign him. He might not want to be part of that organization. He might not want to be the next Bowmeister who has not played one playoff game in his nhl career.

What is to stop him from not signing his ELC this year, going top 5 in the draft next year with a better chance of being on a team with a future? He would still be UFA at 26.

If Florida has this fear, they will try to move him this summer.

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#109 Chris.
May 27 2011, 07:32AM
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knee deep in it wrote:

re: Gudbransen

The Panthers screwed him ovre last year. He was ready to play in the NL and the Panthers did not have the money to sign him. He might not want to be part of that organization. He might not want to be the next Bowmeister who has not played one playoff game in his nhl career.

What is to stop him from not signing his ELC this year, going top 5 in the draft next year with a better chance of being on a team with a future? He would still be UFA at 26.

If Florida has this fear, they will try to move him this summer.

Yeah, like I said: his contract situation intrigues me.

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#110 Chris.
May 27 2011, 07:46AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Its all about what you think a franchise guy should do. To me a really good shutdown guy isnt enough to be labelled a franchise defenseman. So if he wont be a "franchise" player then its not good value at #1, even if he'll still be very very good.

Yeah, that was one of my points. If the Panthers think RNH is the only Franchise type player this draft, maybe they would be willing to move a Gudbransen (solid shut-down type) and the 3rd for not too much additional compensation.

BTW, If I'm Stu, and I believe RNH is a franchise center... I make the pick. You never pass on high end quality for quantity.

The issue seems to be: does this draft actually contain a sure fire Franchise player? (Or will somebody luck into one in the later stages of the draft ala Shea Weber)

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#111 justDOit
May 27 2011, 07:56AM
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Considering the way that Hedman has played this year, I don't think that we should just assume that all defenders taken with high picks take several years to be NHL ready. I don't know if Larsson is projected to be as good as Hedman, or better, but I wouldn't mind having Hedman right now.

As for NHL defenders who might be on the move, we might look a little to the south - our Flame neighbors might have to jettison Bouwmeester's contract to be able to sign a full roster. IMO, I think he would be a better fit in Edmonton than in Calgary. Flame away...

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#112 Archaeologuy
May 27 2011, 07:57AM
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@knee deep in it

I was under the impression that Gudbranson was the one who was trying to milk more money from the Panthers. He's never played a game, he shouldnt be dictating the terms of his contract (just my opinion).

If he Re-enters the draft, my guess is he'll go in the 2nd round, not the top 5. He will likely be labelled as having a poor attitude or difficult to deal with AND his numbers are unimpressive as a 19 yr old in the OHL. He's only averaged 42 games over the last 2 years and his offense is subpar. He might be a good stay at home defender but I dont know if a team wants to throw away a top 5 pick for a defenseman that misses a lot of games and doesnt have any scoring pop. Plus, most players fall drastically after re-entering the draft.

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#113 derrickhands
May 27 2011, 08:01AM
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I would take Gudbransen over Larsson in a heart beat. Gudbransen may not move the puck as good as Larsson, but he has a excellent shot, excellent leadership skills, and is down right mean. Most of the games he missed this years was due to suspensions, the spat he had with the coaching staff, and WJC. In the 09-10 he missed most of those games due to Mono.

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#114 VMR
May 27 2011, 08:06AM
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Metal&Oil wrote:

Yep. I watched the NFL Draft last month and the Atlanta Falcons traded 5 draft picks (two first-rounders, a second-rounder and two fourth-rounders) for the 6th overall pick. I know the NFL draft is a much different animal and much deeper then the NHL draft but it does go to show you that in sports if a team covets a player, they will sometimes pay the premium to move up and select that player in a draft.

The Flyers got the #4 pick (Pitkanen)in the 2002 draft for Ruslan Fedotenko and 2, 2nd round picks. I'd think that works out to about Cogliano and the Kings pick so it's possible you just need to find the team willing to do it. Worked out ok for Tampa, Fedotenko was awesome the year they won the cup and Pitkanen didnt really work out in Philly.

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#115 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 27 2011, 08:52AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

I was under the impression that Gudbranson was the one who was trying to milk more money from the Panthers. He's never played a game, he shouldnt be dictating the terms of his contract (just my opinion).

If he Re-enters the draft, my guess is he'll go in the 2nd round, not the top 5. He will likely be labelled as having a poor attitude or difficult to deal with AND his numbers are unimpressive as a 19 yr old in the OHL. He's only averaged 42 games over the last 2 years and his offense is subpar. He might be a good stay at home defender but I dont know if a team wants to throw away a top 5 pick for a defenseman that misses a lot of games and doesnt have any scoring pop. Plus, most players fall drastically after re-entering the draft.

I don't think that was the case, there is a cap on rookie contracts so theres really no more $$$ to milk.

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#116 Archaeologuy
May 27 2011, 09:13AM
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@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

Yeah, but not all rookies get the max $$$ allowed. I thought that Gudbranson wanted closer to the max than the Panthers were willing to go.

That's just speculation on my part though.

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#117 madjam
May 27 2011, 09:33AM
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I wonder if Colorado would like to move Liles onto Oilers roster, and trade their first pick for ours ? I'd say pretty good .

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#118 Clyde Frog
May 27 2011, 09:41AM
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@OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F

There is a set cap hit and maximum pay, but the bonus structure is where the real money is at.

I believe it was a debate on the milestones required for certain bonus payments.

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#119 Ender
May 27 2011, 09:54AM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

So in your opinion, what would be the benifit of bringing in say a Roman Hamrlik?

You're a shrewd one, Jedi Master. Of all the guys on my list, Hamrlik is probably the one I'm least likely to pursue, and I of course see parallels to the Smyth conversation from earlier this week.

Here's the reason Roman made the list at all, albeit in the 'Also ran' category. We're desperately short of quality defencemen right now. Forwards, we can ice what we have with a tweak here and there and not be a laughingstock, although I acknowledge that there is a difference between not being disgraceful and actually being good. Our defensive core, on the other hand, borders on the ridiculous. It was very bad last year, it's set to be very bad again this year, and there aren't any quality rookies that you can look to to bail you out. We can't finish 30th again this season. That's not a viable strategy - at some point we have to get all those young rookies we're so high on to believe that this team has a shot at winning a hockey game sometime before Tiger Woods reconciles with his wife.

Hamrlik had 34 points last season and was a plus player. Measured by that he would have been a top pairing guy in Edmonton. Given his age, you have to know he's not going to remain a top-pairing guy forever but right now he gives you a significant depth increase from the top all the way down for straight dollars and maybe helps you win some hockey games you wouldn't win otherwise. In addition, he's not impacting anyone's development because the rookies in the minors by and large should be staying in the minors for now barring an emergency situation.

Hamrlik made more money in Montreal last year than I'd be willing to spend for a stopgap guy. Nonetheless, if we could get him on a one- or two-year deal for something like $4M a season, it might bridge the chasm until we have somebody who can step up and carry the load.

In all honesty, though, I can't see it happening with him. Hamrlik is much more valuable to a team who is actually ready to contend and is looking for that extra depth to push them over the top. He's also at the stage of his career where he's probably focussed more on winning Cups than padding his bank account. Logic dictates that he'll sign at a discount somewhere for a contender rather than ride shepherd-duty on a team that's a reach to make the playoffs. I'd send him an offer, just in case the hockey-gods have a sense of humour (or pity - I'd accept pity too) but I freely admit he's not a likely candidate.

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#120 Quicksilver ballet
May 27 2011, 09:56AM
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As much as i'd like to see Hopkins in and Oiler jersey, that deal with the Panthers is difficult to pass up. To have Gudbranson and Couturier would certainly go along way to help this club now and long term.

I wouldn't stop at this one deal, the Oilers should still remain aggressive and make every effort to move up into that top 7 again. Should still be plenty left to deal with as far as i'm concerned.

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#121 fuzzy muppet
May 27 2011, 10:21AM
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The way this team plays, having a D-man that doesn't wilt under pressure and can make a tape to tape first pass is vital.

Setting up Hall and Paajarvi screaming up wings in stride will be nearly impossible for teams to defend.

That's exactly why I love Larsson. Those are his assets to a tee.

Remember, when you're touted as the next great Defenseman at age 16, it's extremely hard to meet those expectations and any mis-step will knock your value.

RNH performed better than expectations and therefore jumped over Larsson and Couterier.

If your expectations are nearly impossible to meet,should you really be dinged for it?

The thought of Larrson stabilizing the backend for the next decade trumps hoping RNH adds enough strength to handle playing against men. Larsson already can handle it, and handle it well.

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#122 They're $hittie
May 27 2011, 10:24AM
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Brad wrote:

If Edmonton had Stamkos and Vinny or Sedin and Kelser instead of Horcoff and Gagner they would make the playoffs.

Edmonton's D ain't anything special but we've seen plenty of successful teams that got it done with a defense-by-committee.

Take Bieksa and Ehrhoff and throw them on the Oilers and they would look #4's at best.

Trade Vancouver Gagner and Horcoff for Sedin and Kelser and Vancouver's D wouldn't look so hot.

conisdering horcoff is not a first rounder, and only kessler was not drafted higher than sam and gagner is still ahead of sedins numbers in progression at his age this statement is pointless.

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#123 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 27 2011, 10:46AM
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Ender wrote:

You're a shrewd one, Jedi Master. Of all the guys on my list, Hamrlik is probably the one I'm least likely to pursue, and I of course see parallels to the Smyth conversation from earlier this week.

Here's the reason Roman made the list at all, albeit in the 'Also ran' category. We're desperately short of quality defencemen right now. Forwards, we can ice what we have with a tweak here and there and not be a laughingstock, although I acknowledge that there is a difference between not being disgraceful and actually being good. Our defensive core, on the other hand, borders on the ridiculous. It was very bad last year, it's set to be very bad again this year, and there aren't any quality rookies that you can look to to bail you out. We can't finish 30th again this season. That's not a viable strategy - at some point we have to get all those young rookies we're so high on to believe that this team has a shot at winning a hockey game sometime before Tiger Woods reconciles with his wife.

Hamrlik had 34 points last season and was a plus player. Measured by that he would have been a top pairing guy in Edmonton. Given his age, you have to know he's not going to remain a top-pairing guy forever but right now he gives you a significant depth increase from the top all the way down for straight dollars and maybe helps you win some hockey games you wouldn't win otherwise. In addition, he's not impacting anyone's development because the rookies in the minors by and large should be staying in the minors for now barring an emergency situation.

Hamrlik made more money in Montreal last year than I'd be willing to spend for a stopgap guy. Nonetheless, if we could get him on a one- or two-year deal for something like $4M a season, it might bridge the chasm until we have somebody who can step up and carry the load.

In all honesty, though, I can't see it happening with him. Hamrlik is much more valuable to a team who is actually ready to contend and is looking for that extra depth to push them over the top. He's also at the stage of his career where he's probably focussed more on winning Cups than padding his bank account. Logic dictates that he'll sign at a discount somewhere for a contender rather than ride shepherd-duty on a team that's a reach to make the playoffs. I'd send him an offer, just in case the hockey-gods have a sense of humour (or pity - I'd accept pity too) but I freely admit he's not a likely candidate.

Fair enough, if I had to choose I'd probably take the vetran D over the vetran F.... as you said, our defense is much worse.

However from the line:

"We can't finish 30th again this season."

On down, you could just switch Hamrliks name with Smyth and it would basically read the same.

I'd aquire both if I could ;)

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#124 speeds
May 27 2011, 11:16AM
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Clyde Frog wrote:

There is a set cap hit and maximum pay, but the bonus structure is where the real money is at.

I believe it was a debate on the milestones required for certain bonus payments.

The whole money issue in FLA with Gudbranson never made a lot of sense to me. Because of the type of defenseman he is, he isn't all that likely to hit his bonuses, so if you give him max bonuses I'm not sure it's much of an issue. FLA isn't anywhere near the cap, so the bonuses aren't an issue that way either.

For D, the triggers are (copied from Exhibit 5 of the CBA):

(b) Defensemen (i) Ice time (aggregate and/or per Game). Player must be among top four (4) defensemen on the Club (minimum 42 Regular Season Games played by Player and comparison group). (Note: an Entry Level SPC may contain bonuses for both aggregate and per Game ice time; however, the maximum aggregate amount the Player may receive on account of the ice time category is $212,500.) (ii) Goals: 10 Goal Minimum (iii) Assists: 25 Assist Minimum (iv) Points: 40 Point Minimum (v) Points Per Game: .49 Points Per Game Minimum (minimum 42 Regular Season Games played) (vi) Plus-Minus Rating: Among top three (3) defensemen on the Club (minimum 42 Regular Season Games played by Player and comparison group). (vii) Blocked Shots: Among top two (2) defensemen on the Club (minimum 42 Regular Season Games played by Player and comparison group). (viii) End-of-Season NHL All-Rookie Team (ix) NHL All-Star Game (selected to play or plays) (x) NHL All-Star Game MVP

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#125 Ender
May 27 2011, 11:16AM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Fair enough, if I had to choose I'd probably take the vetran D over the vetran F.... as you said, our defense is much worse.

However from the line:

"We can't finish 30th again this season."

On down, you could just switch Hamrliks name with Smyth and it would basically read the same.

I'd aquire both if I could ;)

I actually read it like you suggested and it made me smile. We'll have to agree to disagree on Smyth, but I acknowledge that the difference between your philosophy and mine is a very thin grey line. I'll completely agree with you this far - acquiring both would be far preferable to taking another season to 'assess the situation'.

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#126 speeds
May 27 2011, 11:25AM
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@speeds

Sorry about the formatting in the last paragraph of the above post, it looked good before I posted it!

The above are the type A bonuses, worth 850K. Gudbranson would also eligible for 2 mil in type B bonuses (if he signed for the max), but those triggers would be much harder for him to reach, they are for things like finishing top 5 in voting for the Art Ross or Norris.

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#127 D-Man
May 27 2011, 11:38AM
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justDOit wrote:

Considering the way that Hedman has played this year, I don't think that we should just assume that all defenders taken with high picks take several years to be NHL ready. I don't know if Larsson is projected to be as good as Hedman, or better, but I wouldn't mind having Hedman right now.

As for NHL defenders who might be on the move, we might look a little to the south - our Flame neighbors might have to jettison Bouwmeester's contract to be able to sign a full roster. IMO, I think he would be a better fit in Edmonton than in Calgary. Flame away...

Not sure if I'd take on Bouwmeester's contract either though... He's a $6.7 million cap hit for the next three years... With the need to sign Hemsky this year, the kids the year following - I'm not sure we want another Horcoff like contract on our books... What would you trade to Calgary in return? Draft picks??

I agree - Bouwmeester would be an awesome addition to the team; but not at that price.

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#128 D-Man
May 27 2011, 11:40AM
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derrickhands wrote:

I would take Gudbransen over Larsson in a heart beat. Gudbransen may not move the puck as good as Larsson, but he has a excellent shot, excellent leadership skills, and is down right mean. Most of the games he missed this years was due to suspensions, the spat he had with the coaching staff, and WJC. In the 09-10 he missed most of those games due to Mono.

Don't we already have a player like that in Colten Tuebert? I haven't seen Gudbransen play recently, but at the WJC - he really didn't show me anything more than what Tuebert has...

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#129 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 27 2011, 11:49AM
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D-Man wrote:

Not sure if I'd take on Bouwmeester's contract either though... He's a $6.7 million cap hit for the next three years... With the need to sign Hemsky this year, the kids the year following - I'm not sure we want another Horcoff like contract on our books... What would you trade to Calgary in return? Draft picks??

I agree - Bouwmeester would be an awesome addition to the team; but not at that price.

I really hate to see whats going to happen around here if/when we actually get good and people have to start getting paid.

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#130 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 27 2011, 11:51AM
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D-Man wrote:

Don't we already have a player like that in Colten Tuebert? I haven't seen Gudbransen play recently, but at the WJC - he really didn't show me anything more than what Tuebert has...

Tuebert is to Gudbransen what Horcoff is to Mike Richards.

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#131 Metal&Oil
May 27 2011, 11:55AM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

I really hate to see whats going to happen around here if/when we actually get good and people have to start getting paid.

Actually his point was that we do have good ppl here that will need to get paid lucrative contracts in the none too distant future. D-Mans point was about planing ahead so we can pay these players what they will command and not risking it all by trading for a player like Jay-Bo, who in my opinion is too big of a risk anyways.

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#132 mayorpoop
May 27 2011, 11:59AM
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speeds wrote:

Sorry about the formatting in the last paragraph of the above post, it looked good before I posted it!

The above are the type A bonuses, worth 850K. Gudbranson would also eligible for 2 mil in type B bonuses (if he signed for the max), but those triggers would be much harder for him to reach, they are for things like finishing top 5 in voting for the Art Ross or Norris.

thanks for that info on bonus structure and triggers....good stuff. i always thought it was arbitrarily decided by the team and player as to what bonuses were.

guess i will continue to NOT read the CBA for NHL, i will look for your posts instead...i'm lazy like that.

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#133 Archaeologuy
May 27 2011, 12:01PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Tuebert is to Gudbransen what Horcoff is to Mike Richards.

It's hard for me to judge that statement since neither play in the NHL. I have very little to judge those players on.

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#134 knee deep in it
May 27 2011, 12:03PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

I was under the impression that Gudbranson was the one who was trying to milk more money from the Panthers. He's never played a game, he shouldnt be dictating the terms of his contract (just my opinion).

If he Re-enters the draft, my guess is he'll go in the 2nd round, not the top 5. He will likely be labelled as having a poor attitude or difficult to deal with AND his numbers are unimpressive as a 19 yr old in the OHL. He's only averaged 42 games over the last 2 years and his offense is subpar. He might be a good stay at home defender but I dont know if a team wants to throw away a top 5 pick for a defenseman that misses a lot of games and doesnt have any scoring pop. Plus, most players fall drastically after re-entering the draft.

they agreed to a salary because it was pretty much dictated by the cba. Where the negotiations fell apart was the bonusses.

According to dregor and mckenzie, FLorida had a firm internal cap of 50 mill and gudbranson's bonusses would have put them over that.

He was a 3rd overall pick who wasn't being offered the bonusses made available to just about everyone else in the first round.

He has every right to be pissed and may have soured on the Panthers' org. All he has to do is not sign this year and he is pretty much guarantteed a spot next year on a team probably more likely to become a legit contender for a playoff spot.

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#135 mayorpoop
May 27 2011, 12:04PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Tuebert is to Gudbransen what Horcoff is to Mike Richards.

that is a bold comparison on a 20yr....speculate much?

for tueberts sake i bet he hopes he gets that kind of money tho.

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#136 Quicksilver ballet
May 27 2011, 12:28PM
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So, just so we're one the same page here. What is the concensus ON view on this, are we better off looking into Gudbranson or would we be better off pursuing Bogosian if the opportunity presents itself?

I'd prefer Gudbranson, just feel he'd make a good #2 or 3 d'man.

Taylor Hall signed for 3.75, Tyler Seguin signed for 3.5, what realm would Gudbranson be in...2.75- 3?

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#137 Archaeologuy
May 27 2011, 12:40PM
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@Quicksilver ballet

Depends what you want to give up. Maybe Florida gets told EG doesnt want to have anything to do with them and the 19th overall pick + a 3rd rounder gets it done.

If you're talking about moving roster players then I'd rather wait until he re-enters the draft and take him in the 2nd round.

Bogosian is the same minus the draft re-entry bit.

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#138 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 27 2011, 12:42PM
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Metal&Oil wrote:

Actually his point was that we do have good ppl here that will need to get paid lucrative contracts in the none too distant future. D-Mans point was about planing ahead so we can pay these players what they will command and not risking it all by trading for a player like Jay-Bo, who in my opinion is too big of a risk anyways.

You wait and see, as soon as Hall inks a 7+ million contract alot of fans here will turn on him.

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#139 D-Man
May 27 2011, 12:43PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

I really hate to see whats going to happen around here if/when we actually get good and people have to start getting paid.

Are you saying you'd pay Bouwmeester $6.7 million?? If that's the case - I suppose you'd pay Chara $10 million?? Ryan Whitney - who is notably better than Bouwmeester - is getting only $5.0 million. I might get hung up on cap space and the $$$ when talking about FA's but you can't seriously say Bouwmeester's contract is reasonable??

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#140 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 27 2011, 12:44PM
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mayorpoop wrote:

that is a bold comparison on a 20yr....speculate much?

for tueberts sake i bet he hopes he gets that kind of money tho.

Not really.

Go ask any independent hockey person, I'm sure they would all say Gudbransen is far better then Tuebert.

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#141 K
May 27 2011, 12:45PM
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Having gudbranson wouldn't stop me from getting bogo as well. If there's opportunity to get both do it

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#142 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 27 2011, 12:45PM
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Quicksilver ballet wrote:

So, just so we're one the same page here. What is the concensus ON view on this, are we better off looking into Gudbranson or would we be better off pursuing Bogosian if the opportunity presents itself?

I'd prefer Gudbranson, just feel he'd make a good #2 or 3 d'man.

Taylor Hall signed for 3.75, Tyler Seguin signed for 3.5, what realm would Gudbranson be in...2.75- 3?

I don't think we can really be picky, I'd take whomever became available without selling for farm.

Duchene drafted the year before at #3 has a cap hit of 3.4, so I'm sure that's the max for that draft slot.

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#143 Cheesenaka
May 27 2011, 12:46PM
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Am I the only one who would like to see the Oilers pursue Eric Brewer?

I realize we've been there and done that but he seems like a big minutes muncher for Tampa averaging 25:41 per game. He seemed decently solid and paired with Whitney I think would excel as an Oiler.

*ducks and looks for cover*

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#144 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 27 2011, 12:48PM
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D-Man wrote:

Are you saying you'd pay Bouwmeester $6.7 million?? If that's the case - I suppose you'd pay Chara $10 million?? Ryan Whitney - who is notably better than Bouwmeester - is getting only $5.0 million. I might get hung up on cap space and the $$$ when talking about FA's but you can't seriously say Bouwmeester's contract is reasonable??

I'm able to see the big picture, so to me it isn't: Check the cap hit....and if it's big "NO WAY!!!!!!!!!!"

Term is far more important then cap hit, Bouwmeester is short enough that you would have alot of flexibility with it.

If it was a 10 year deal I wouldn't be interested, but on a three year deal I'd be fine with it.

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#145 Archaeologuy
May 27 2011, 12:49PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

You wait and see, as soon as Hall inks a 7+ million contract alot of fans here will turn on him.

Only if he doesnt live up to the expectations of a 7 million dollar contract.

For a non-C Forward I would expect 35-55-90 (or close to it) annualy. Even then, 40 goals is probably more in line with a 7 million dollar cap hit on a winger.

At least that's how I would judge it. What would he have to be doing at 7 mill for you to be happy?

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#146 Metal&Oil
May 27 2011, 12:56PM
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Cheesenaka wrote:

Am I the only one who would like to see the Oilers pursue Eric Brewer?

I realize we've been there and done that but he seems like a big minutes muncher for Tampa averaging 25:41 per game. He seemed decently solid and paired with Whitney I think would excel as an Oiler.

*ducks and looks for cover*

Not a bad Idea at all. Not too sure about this but wasn't Brewer a lil bit bitter with the Oil at the time of his trade? Or maybe it was at a contract dispute before the trade. Anyways I seem to remember something happening but I could be wrong.

Ether way though that would not necessary stand in the way of him returning here. Mike Comrie proved that.

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#147 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 27 2011, 01:03PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Only if he doesnt live up to the expectations of a 7 million dollar contract.

For a non-C Forward I would expect 35-55-90 (or close to it) annualy. Even then, 40 goals is probably more in line with a 7 million dollar cap hit on a winger.

At least that's how I would judge it. What would he have to be doing at 7 mill for you to be happy?

He'll have some years where no one will care, but struggle a few games and this town will be all over him for that $$.

And I'll be the Oilers to avoid a heavy front-loaded deal for him, if they give him one my head will explode.

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#148 Ender
May 27 2011, 01:12PM
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Cheesenaka wrote:

Am I the only one who would like to see the Oilers pursue Eric Brewer?

I realize we've been there and done that but he seems like a big minutes muncher for Tampa averaging 25:41 per game. He seemed decently solid and paired with Whitney I think would excel as an Oiler.

*ducks and looks for cover*

Yup, you're the only one. I looked at that option a few times, even going back to when he was still in St. Louis. His numbers aren't that good. As in, yikes sort of not good.

Brewer brings leadership and experience. If that's all it takes to play here, we could have just hung on to Staios.

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#149 mayorpoop
May 27 2011, 01:13PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

Not really.

Go ask any independent hockey person, I'm sure they would all say Gudbransen is far better then Tuebert.

if you are assessing them at that value today then fine, gudbransen is superior.

assessing for the future at that value IS speculating.

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#150 D-Man
May 27 2011, 01:17PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

I'm able to see the big picture, so to me it isn't: Check the cap hit....and if it's big "NO WAY!!!!!!!!!!"

Term is far more important then cap hit, Bouwmeester is short enough that you would have alot of flexibility with it.

If it was a 10 year deal I wouldn't be interested, but on a three year deal I'd be fine with it.

I guess it's how you look at the 'big picture'... Right now - we have $19 million in available cap space... Bouwmeester would burn up about $7.0 million of that so for the short term - you're right - maybe not that bad...

However - let's talk big picture... That $19 million doesn't include Cogliano, Jones, JFJ, Smak, Vandermeer, Smid, Peckham and Chorney... For simplicity sake, I'm not including any AHLers... Out of that bunch, I'm signing Cogs - $1.2 million, Jones - $1.3 million, Smid - $1.4 million, Peckham $0.8 million and Smak $0.750 million... That ties up another $6 million or so - leaving us with roughly $6 million in cap space (with Bouwmeester on our roster)... Great, right? Wait - we still have 5 roster spots to fill to complete this years lineup.. One of them would be RNH and he'll be a $1 million dollar cap hit for the season... For argument's sake - we find 4 more skaters that make up the remaining $5 million... So arguably with Bouw., we ice a lineup that would be better on the backend, and we'll have maxed out the cap (or close to it)... I'd also speculate that we'd be close to fighting for a playoff spot too, but I'll have no money to take on any FA's should I want to add a piece for a playoff push...

My point?? Cap space is as important as term and NEEDS to be used when looking at the big picture... I won't delve into year two or year three as there's now way too much speculation on who gets good, who doesn't, etc. IMO - Bouwmeester's contract doesn't add up especially as my big picture seems Hemsky, Hall, Eberle and MPS over the same time frame... Each player right now, has the potential to be a $3.0 million to $5.0 million cap hit, regardless of term. I want to keep them all and although, I'm getting $4.5 million back with Souray gone after next season - I don't see any significant value in Bouwmeester's cap hit... He'll improve the team - but the guy hasn't even won a playoff series - ever... There's no veteran leadership to add asides from his experience as a professional... Heck - I'd go back to our previous debate and sign Smytty for the $4.5 million instead (if I had the choice - for the record I wouldn't sign him either)...

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