Ambulance Blues

Lowetide
May 08 2011 08:13AM

The discussion of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as the potential number one overall pick points out the flaws in evaluating junior age kids through math: we just don't have enough information.

In the last few weeks, I've had the opportunity to discuss this year's top prospects with many well known hockey people. ALL of them suggest Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is a cerebral player with exceptional on-ice vision and quickness. Robin Brownlee's excellent ongoing series here at ON seems to be leading us to the conclusion that RNH is the man and most Oiler fans would be surprised at this point if he's not taken #1 overall. 

Among those who don't feel he should go first overall the argument (in general terms) comes down to:

  • RNH does not appear to have as "wide a range" of skills as someone like Sean Couturier.
  • The way he's scoring his points (mostly on PP) suggests he won't be an impact player at Evens.
  • His goals/assist rates are drastic enough for us to question his ability to be both a goal scorer and playmaker.

Cam Moon joined me for Nation Radio yesterday and I asked him several questions in regard to RNH. I've been very interested in his opinion because there's a disconnect between the known math and reality (an example of reality: Bob McKenzie says 6 of 10 NHL scouts have Nugent-Hopkins #1) which usually means we're missing part of the equation.

  • Moon on the quality of RNH's linemates: He played with Andrej Kudrna (29 goals) and John Persson (33 goals) during the regular season. Moon mentioned that he considered them excellent WHL calibre wingers. Moon also suggested that Nugent-Hopkins did indeed play with Byron Froese on the PP.
  • Moon on the powerplay time on ice: According to the RDR PBP man the kid was on the #1PP all season long and shouldn't be punished for results. While true, I think it's important to estimate his PP TOI in reasonable terms. There were only three NHL forwards with more than 5 minutes per game this past season (Crosby, Malkin, Brad Richards) but let's use that as the marker. 5 minutes per game on the PP. That would give RNH 345 minutes on the powerplay this past season, and put his 69gp, 11-47-58 numbers into 10.08 points-per-60 minutes. Even if we stretch the number to 8 minutes a night on the PP (Red Deer enjoyed 360 powerplays all year long, so 8 minutes a night would have RNH playing about 70% of the overall PP minutes--very unlikely) his points-per-60 number would be 6.30 points-per-60 on the powerplay.
  • Moon on the EV time on ice: Cam Moon--as the PBP guy--is well qualified to speak to this issue. After all, he calls the team's games all season long so would be the guy to answer the question. Moon told me yesterday that RNH plays on a "4line team" and there does seem to be some balance on the squad. 5 forwards scored more than 60 points during the regular year, 3 more between 27 and 40 points and two more regulars beyond that. So there's 10 forwards we can scope from the boxcars, and they had a lot of kids who played partial seasons thrown in there too. Some of those kids (like Josh Cowen) were clearly getting legit minutes based on the boxcars.
  • What's the EV/60 number: Well, the NHL leaders at even strength time on ice had 17+ minutes per game (there were three: Kovalchuk, Getzlaf, Perry) so let's use that as our outer marker. That puts Nugent-Hopkins estimate at 1173 minutes, so his even-strength-per-60 number would be 2.46/60 (69gp, 20-28-48).
  • What does it all mean? Well, if we use the same time-on-ice estimate for Taylor Hall (I believe Windsor rolled 4 lines too) we'd get the following: PP (57gp, 14-32-46) 9.68 which is in the range with RNH's 10.08. Hall at EV: (57gp, 22-33-55) assuming 17 minutes puts him at 3.41--well clear of RNH's 2.46/60.

What it really mean?

As much as we want math to help us project these kids, we don't have enough math to make a reasonable equation. We're left with the words of hockey men:

  • Ken Hitchcock: “My opinion on Nugent-Hopkins has changed ... last summer I thought he reminded me of Joe Sakic, but it’s Pavel Datsyuk now. He strips people of the puck, he’s crafty in high-traffic areas, he dishes well, he’s got great patience with the puck. But, if you’re close to either one of those two guys (in ability), that’s a pretty good thing.”
  • Craig Button: "He's unique. You can't trade for these guys and they don't show up in free agency."
  • Stu MacGregor: "I've watched the kid play at both ends and he seems to do a lot of things on the power play and 5-on-5, so it's not a real issue at this point. He had the same number of points that Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin did last year. He rose to the occasion enough to be the leading scorer with his team and one of the top five in the WHL. He didn't have a lot of guys to play with, but in the games I saw he was the guy who stirred the drink."

I'm very interested in Robin Brownlee's ongoing series and what Stu MacGregor told him. I believe MBS and the Oilers have decided RNH is the man, and although it would be nice to follow them to that conclusion we simply don't have the available information. We need time on ice, not just for RNH but for years previous in order to compare.

Without it, in the words of Neil Young, we're all just pissing in the wind.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on Team 1260.
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#2 Aron S
May 08 2011, 08:22AM
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So if MBS projects Couturier as a reasonable shot at 1C, does that mean RNH has to project as a strong to elite 1C for the Oilers to draft him? His projections, while nice, have really been tempered thus far, I think.

Looking at that Datsyuk comparison, the man plays on a strong team and is more of a 1A Center on that team, followed by some other high quality centers (Zetterberg who occassionally plays C and W).

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#3 Dave
May 08 2011, 09:01AM
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Keep H.O.P.E. happy. Draft the Nuge. I think it really is that simple.

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#4 Brokenlathe
May 08 2011, 10:16AM
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Forget HOPE we need HELP draft Larsson

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#5 David Staples
May 08 2011, 10:46AM
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Given the natuure of RNH's team and Couturier's respective teams -- with RNH the second-line centre on a team that used four lines at evens, with and Couturier on a team with very little depth -- it's possible, maybe even likely, that RNH played 13-to-15 minutes per night at even strength, and that Couturier was up around 16 or 17 or 18 minutes at evens per night.

Fact is, of course, we don't know, which anyone sour on RNH because of his even strength scoring numbers must admit. There's no certainy here and the discussion would be better if folks admitted that right off the top.

As it stands now, I put little weight in RNH's even strength numbers being lower than Couturier's. They are so close that if Couturier got a two or three minutes more at evens each game, they would be even.

I also would hope the Oilers scouts have a better idea of the real number for both players.

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#7 9 Inches Uncut
May 08 2011, 03:50PM
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I don't know LT. For the Gagner comparison. RNH seems to project as a taller and bigger center. He has a better toolkit as far as skating is concerned. Both players have strong stickhandling, vision, and playmaking abilities.

So RNH looks like a bigger, stronger, faster Gagner. That actually sounds like a pretty awesome player.

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#8 pelhem grenville
May 08 2011, 05:10PM
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Dave wrote:

I'd be happy with Hull & Oates.

...nicely played...if i knew how i'd prop that

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#9 Oilfan14
May 09 2011, 12:46AM
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The Oil could pick RNH with the first pick, trade LA's pick (19th), our 2nd round (31st)' and a roster player (Gagner) for the 2nd overall. Then they could take Larsson. I love Gags but you have to give up something to get something. If Larsson is as good as they say then it would be worth the price.

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#11 ubermiguel
May 08 2011, 08:47AM
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Props for naming an article after a classic but underrated Neil Young song.

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#12 Sparky
May 08 2011, 10:33AM
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I'm H.O.P.E.N. that the Nuge is going to be the first overall!

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#14 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
May 08 2011, 03:11PM
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pelhem grenville wrote:

Q...power raking's for you young bucks...

...long live condo living walking close to the North Saskatchewan Riviera...

Caught me by surprise there PG.

Had you pegged as one of those artificial turf guys...

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#15 Oilfan00
May 08 2011, 03:47PM
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A couple points:

1. People saying once RNH gains wait he will become unbalanced and lose his quickness. He is an elite athlete who skates all year round so I dont see him waking up one day putting ont he skates and going what the hell I cant move skate anymore.

2. There is no number 1 pick this year. Ya there is and its Nugent-Hopkins some just dont want to take him and thats fine but he is the best player in this draft.

3. I am on the RNH bandwagon and I think it would be a mistake not to draft him I think Strome is someone who I would try and trade up to get. I think he is getting overlooked big time.

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#16 Dave
May 08 2011, 04:33PM
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My fear is that the Oilers become a team of talented wingers without a center piece. And Id love to see a talent like RNH click with one of the other kids giving the Oilers a dynamic centre-winger pair that's a threat to score every shift and soooo much fun to watch.

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#17 Dave
May 08 2011, 04:50PM
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pelhem grenville wrote:

...Dave ...~y'mean like Gretsky & Kurry? ~

I'd be happy with Hull & Oates.

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#18 @Oilanderp
May 08 2011, 06:23PM
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pelhem grenville wrote:

...nicely played...if i knew how i'd prop that

You have to be logged in to give props. Go down to the bottom of the page and login. Then reload the page after you are logged in. Then notice all the "+1" boxes in the upper right corner of every comment that you can click on to give props.

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#19 Crash
May 08 2011, 07:23PM
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Lowetide wrote:

I've read this a few places, but can't really understand why Boston would deal Seguin. He'd be the best player in this draft, so dealing him would seem to be a backwards step.

That's a pretty bold statement...please enlighten me as to how you "KNOW" Seguin would be the best player in this draft? Was Bob Stauffer not quoting any of the good scouts when he mentioned that a majority of the ones he talked to said RNH was better than Seguin?

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#20 pelhem grenville
May 09 2011, 04:52AM
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one hundred and FIST!!!couldn't resist

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#21 @Oilanderp
May 09 2011, 09:19AM
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pelhem grenville wrote:

one million thankyous ~S~K~

so now can you help me with how one makes italics and bold type?

and y'know how one posts a comment & there are times one wants to have citizens be able to click on a word like READ OR LOOK HERE and it's sort of interactively underlined? they click on it and it's a picture of say ...Wanye being fed peeled grapes by a gaggle of young naked women?

if y'can't help me out with those things i am in your debt for this valuable prop knowledge

again thankyou...

Search the internet for HTML codes. Try HERE!.

You must use this priestly knowledge wisely Pelhem! As for the rest of you, you will immediately forget this knowledge as soon as you hear a NEIL YOUNG TUNE.

Ambulance blues indeed.

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#22 pelhem grenville
May 08 2011, 08:51AM
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...does anyone honestly think that anything that RNH does/did in junior will translate to the NHL anytime soon if he actually plays in the NHL after being taken #1 ?

I'm thinking that his size, compared to the veritable behemoth that is Couturier the scouting staff is tugging pretty good on their hair leading up to the pick...specifically can Renney and the rest of the Oiler mates light a fire under Couturiers' a$$ to really convince him that if he's going to be THE ONE C on this team he needs to step up to the next level and produce, perform & proliferate?

if size doesn't matter at all ...never mind

forget i even brought it up

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#23 pelhem grenville
May 08 2011, 09:32AM
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...Dave, i sure get that but as Brownlee once wrote RUNT in RUNT out...is drafting 'The Nuge' that simple? can Omark survive the exchange if 'The Nuge' comes in?...which runt goes if a 1C runt comes in?...

the Nation may have to rethink the H.O.P.E. thingy concept...

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#24 buttermilk buscuits
May 08 2011, 10:00AM
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RNH is no runt..not even close, hes a an 18 year old kid (or is he 17?) who hasnt really put on his man weight yet..and he still dominated all season long...not all 17 year olds at 6 foot 1 have filled out...RNH will easily hit 190+ in three years or so.. Omark stays, RNH stays..imagine the takeaways this team would get..crazy to think...

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#25 madjam
May 08 2011, 10:17AM
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buttermilk buscuits wrote:

RNH is no runt..not even close, hes a an 18 year old kid (or is he 17?) who hasnt really put on his man weight yet..and he still dominated all season long...not all 17 year olds at 6 foot 1 have filled out...RNH will easily hit 190+ in three years or so.. Omark stays, RNH stays..imagine the takeaways this team would get..crazy to think...

Nugent a force when battling for puck or just another Oiler playing from the seat of their pants against the big boys ? Thats one of the reasons i fear us taking Nugent - seen him on the seat of his pants to often in traffic . Coutourier should not have to worry about him being pushed around - he'll be pushing them around ! Size matters in the NHL a lot more than Junior hockey ! I'd hate to see Oilers take Hopkins first and maybe have him turn out to be next midsized Daigle .

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#26 Westcoastoil
May 08 2011, 10:28AM
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"...we don't have enough math to make a reasonable equation." sums it up. In this particular draft, it may be that the best way to look at is that as long as you don't make a "bad" decision (Kelly, Bonsignore), you've done the best you can. There is no way of knowing who the best pick is - injury, lifestyle are just a couple of the things can can derail a career - and there is no shortage of examples of players taken later that have better carers than the high end pick in the draft.

Where there is no clear cut #1 the strategy should be who in your estimation is the best sure bet to succeed (at the expense of potential) and then as an organization do everything you can to develop that prospect properly.

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#27 pelhem grenville
May 08 2011, 10:30AM
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buttermilk buscuits wrote:

RNH is no runt..not even close, hes a an 18 year old kid (or is he 17?) who hasnt really put on his man weight yet..and he still dominated all season long...not all 17 year olds at 6 foot 1 have filled out...RNH will easily hit 190+ in three years or so.. Omark stays, RNH stays..imagine the takeaways this team would get..crazy to think...

"...RNH will easily hit 190+ in three years or so.."

...he's a buck sixty maybe and he's gonna fill out to 190+ in three years or SO?

ya that's who I wanna draft...what's to say he does fill out ...he could spend another couple years getting used to the way his filling out has screwed up his balance timing skating and over all usefulness...i really am not sure about this kid... it's a scary pick from where i see it...he's not NHL ready IMO. and IMO Omarks' worth is as much as the package of players (Brule JFJ Hemsky) he gets traded elsewhere with to get back a much needed ROSTER dman...

someday

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#28 stevezie
May 08 2011, 10:33AM
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Every time I look at Strome's numbers I get confused as to why he is outside of the conversation. This looks like a fantastic top ten, and if Ottawa was willing to give up Nash's 1st to move up... well the scouts would have to be pretty damn sure about RNH to pass that up.

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#29 NamelessNed
May 08 2011, 10:35AM
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madjam wrote:

Nugent a force when battling for puck or just another Oiler playing from the seat of their pants against the big boys ? Thats one of the reasons i fear us taking Nugent - seen him on the seat of his pants to often in traffic . Coutourier should not have to worry about him being pushed around - he'll be pushing them around ! Size matters in the NHL a lot more than Junior hockey ! I'd hate to see Oilers take Hopkins first and maybe have him turn out to be next midsized Daigle .

And Coutourier isn't a full sized Daigle because of ????

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#31 DBO
May 08 2011, 10:46AM
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Ryan Whitney had some interesting points on the draft. Not sure where it was said, but he mentioned that given the choice you draft the centre since you can deal or sign top 2 dmen, but you can almost never trade for top line centres and rarely can you sign them as UFA's since their teams resign them. I was originally on the Larsson bandwagon, but I am leaning towards a centre. I like the idea of trading down and getting another pick in the top 10. We are not 1 top end player away from contending, so trading down, getting Strome and Hamilton and we are way closer then just RNH

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#32 Crash
May 08 2011, 11:10AM
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David Staples wrote:

Given the natuure of RNH's team and Couturier's respective teams -- with RNH the second-line centre on a team that used four lines at evens, with and Couturier on a team with very little depth -- it's possible, maybe even likely, that RNH played 13-to-15 minutes per night at even strength, and that Couturier was up around 16 or 17 or 18 minutes at evens per night.

Fact is, of course, we don't know, which anyone sour on RNH because of his even strength scoring numbers must admit. There's no certainy here and the discussion would be better if folks admitted that right off the top.

As it stands now, I put little weight in RNH's even strength numbers being lower than Couturier's. They are so close that if Couturier got a two or three minutes more at evens each game, they would be even.

I also would hope the Oilers scouts have a better idea of the real number for both players.

Agreed, looking at EV vs PP numbers in such a small sample size as one hockey season indicates "nothing".

Those kinds of numbers can fluctuate from one season to the next.

I'm of the belief that the scouts are bright enough that they must certainly not get caught up in this EV strength numbers nonsense.

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#33 CrazyCaptain88
May 08 2011, 12:17PM
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@David Staples

I would have to agree that RNH EV minutes are more likely to be around the 15 min range. I just find it highly unlikely that a team that rolls 4 lines has a forward playing 22 mins or more a night (17 mins EV + 5 mins PP).

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#34 Clay
May 08 2011, 12:18PM
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David Staples wrote:

Given the natuure of RNH's team and Couturier's respective teams -- with RNH the second-line centre on a team that used four lines at evens, with and Couturier on a team with very little depth -- it's possible, maybe even likely, that RNH played 13-to-15 minutes per night at even strength, and that Couturier was up around 16 or 17 or 18 minutes at evens per night.

Fact is, of course, we don't know, which anyone sour on RNH because of his even strength scoring numbers must admit. There's no certainy here and the discussion would be better if folks admitted that right off the top.

As it stands now, I put little weight in RNH's even strength numbers being lower than Couturier's. They are so close that if Couturier got a two or three minutes more at evens each game, they would be even.

I also would hope the Oilers scouts have a better idea of the real number for both players.

So you're saying that, in their draft years, RNH's team didn't see him as a #1 centre, but more as a PP specialist. However, Couturier played as a #1 centre in all areas (including PK - don't for get he went 4-4-8 on the PK versus RNH's 0-0-0).

I don't think this alleviates my worry about RNH as #1 overall.

It's not just that RNH's even strength scoring is lower than the other considerations for #1. Hopkins is the ONLY PLAYER OUT OF THE TOP 60 forwards in the draft to score LESS THAN HALF of his points at evens.

As an aside, and I've asked this before, but how does a player who allegedly can't skate, score 8 points on the penalty kill?

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#35 Release the Hounds
May 08 2011, 12:20PM
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Ahem, what difference does it make if RNH had scored all of his points on the PP for chrissakes? We're talking about an Oiler's PP that ended up at 14.5 % for the year. Does no one think the power play needs some help?

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#36 BadSeed
May 08 2011, 12:28PM
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@Release the Hounds

Ever heard of Rob Schremp?

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#37 buttermilk buscuits
May 08 2011, 12:30PM
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Numbers in this case are WAAAAYYY overrated..did anyone here actually watch RNH play this past season??? I watched him play about five games..that may not mean much..but from what I saw I saw him dominating on even strength..whenever he was on the ice he made something happen..often times has that Doug Weight element by making something out of nothing...he looked explosive in his playing style and went wherever he needed to be to get the puck..causing turnovers..making amazing passes.. And the on the PP...he turns it up another notch or two...He is exactly what the Oilers need...you should never compare him to a Daigle or Bonsignore..both those players were very talented..but that is where the comparisons should end.

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#38 buttermilk buscuits
May 08 2011, 12:31PM
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Numbers in this case are WAAAAYYY overrated..did anyone here actually watch RNH play this past season??? I watched him play about five games..that may not mean much..but from what I saw I saw him dominating on even strength..whenever he was on the ice he made something happen..often times has that Doug Weight element by making something out of nothing...he looked explosive in his playing style and went wherever he needed to be to get the puck..causing turnovers..making amazing passes.. And the on the PP...he turns it up another notch or two...He is exactly what the Oilers need...you should never compare him to a Daigle or Bonsignore..both those players were very talented..but that is where the comparisons should end.

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#40 Release the Hounds
May 08 2011, 12:33PM
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@ Bad Seed WTF is your point???? Did you ever hear of Bobby Orr?

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#41 buttermilk biscuits
May 08 2011, 12:37PM
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I also hate the Robbie Schremp comparison..sure both are talented and Schremp was dominant in Junior hockey like RNH is.. Huge difference is their skating ability..seems like RNH has a higher compete level..and RNH is also a takeaway machine.. Schremp, Gagner, Daigle, Bonsignore=all very one dimensional players..Gagner being the most versatile of those..but from what Ive seen..I would not compare any of those to RNH..I truly believe that RNH belongs more in Datsyuk City..after watching him play 5 games I believe that.

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#43 Brokenlathe
May 08 2011, 12:47PM
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Wow, seen him good in 5 games! I'm sold?!?!

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#44 Release the Hounds
May 08 2011, 12:48PM
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Lowetide wrote:

Schremp is generally used as a prime example of a dominant PP performer in junior but a less than impressive EV performer. Coaching decisions CAN have a major impact on these players, as reflected by Jonathan Willis here:

http://oilersnation.com/2009/8/24/rob-schremp-in-his-draft-year

Ya LT, I know who Schremp is and his junior numbers. My point is what does that have to do with RNH? Just because Schremp didn't turn out to be a superstar, doesn't mean that RNH couldn't. They could draft Couturier and what in hell is the guarantee that he won't be a Schremp? Where is the iron-clad guarantee with any other player drafted? Just saying.....

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#45 BadSeed
May 08 2011, 12:51PM
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@Release the Hounds

The point is that Schremp was/is a one dimensional player. Never heard Orr described as such. If that is what RNH is, no thanks. Apart from one hot month he had, he wouldn't even be in any conversations for top 5. Here's another thing, everyone's talking that it'll take Larsson some time to become & top pairing defender, how long will it take RNH? Larsson's a man now & I doubt either plays in the NHL next year anyway.

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#46 buttermilk biscuits
May 08 2011, 12:55PM
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Brokenlathe wrote:

Wow, seen him good in 5 games! I'm sold?!?!

Yup..when he is so dominate in each of those games..that along with what all the scouts are saying, and other fans that have seen him play live..he looks and sounds like a solid first overall player..but we shall see.

It is not uncommen at all for a 17 or 18 year old to gain at least 20 pounds in 2-3 years..I gained 25 pounds in four months when I was 19..and was much faster..stronger after it...RNH just hasnt packed on that explosive muscle just yet...when he does he will be solid...probably is a very wiry young man.

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#48 buttermilk biscuits
May 08 2011, 01:04PM
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Lowetide..did you see Gagner play in Junior? How did he compare (aside from numbers) to RNH?

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#49 Brokenlathe
May 08 2011, 01:08PM
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Please let the oil draft Larsson or at least trade down a couple of spots "Nuge" is so over rated. I agree with lowtide, enough with "seen him good"

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