FTHM VII: RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS

Robin Brownlee
May 09 2011 07:43AM

When it comes to making the first overall pick at the NHL Entry Draft in Minnesota June 24-25, Edmonton Oilers chief scout Stu MacGregor said last week that he has his guy. I believe MacGregor's guy is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins of the Red Deer Rebels.

I don't know that to be the case because, in a series titled "From The Horse's Mouth," MacGregor did not come out and say the Oilers will follow up last June's selection of Taylor Hall by picking Nugent-Hopkins. I haven't polled each and every member of MacGregor's scouting staff and been told he's the guy.

Likewise, neither GM Steve Tambellini nor president of hockey operations Kevin Lowe has slipped me a piece of paper with the name "Nugent-Hopkins" on it. Still, my gut and my ears spell tell me it's the skilled kid who plays just an hour or so down the road, right here in Oil Country.

With Red Deer eliminated from the WHL playoffs since being beaten by Medicine Hat, Nugent-Hopkins won't have the opportunity to further separate himself from the rest of the pack the way Hall did with the Windsor Spitfires a year ago, when he left Tyler Seguin in the dust. Still, what I read between the lines is there's no need. He's the guy.

"With the first pick in the 2011 NHL Entry Draft, the Edmonton Oilers are proud to select, from the Red Deer Rebels, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins . . ."

THE SKINNY FROM CSS

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

North American Skater

Red Deer, WHL

Final Rank: 1 Midterm Rank: 3

Position: Center Shoots: Left

Height: 6' 0" Weight: 164

Born: April 12, 1993 Hometown: Burnaby, BC

Born in: Burnaby, BC, CAN

NHL Central Scouting’s B.J. MacDonald

"(Nugent-Hopkins) has very good puck-handling capabilities. His on-ice awareness is very good. He's one of those guys that knows where everyone is and where they should be and where the puck should go . . . He can dish both right or left, either on his backhand or forehand with that kind of vision. But not just the vision, but the fact he can lay that puck between the skate boot and the skate blade -- that's hard to find."

-- In 2010-11, Nugent-Hopkins led the WHL in assists (75), finished fourth overall in points (106) and was named an Eastern Conference First-Team All-Star after helping the Red Deer Rebels to a first place finish in the Central Division.

-- He served as an assistant captain with Canada’s Under-18 team at the 2010 Ivan Hlinka Memorial in the Czech Republic, where he won gold and scored the game-winning goal, beating the U.S. 1-0.

MACGREGOR'S TAKE

Scouting Report: "He's got high-end skills, vision and hockey sense."

Projection: "A first-line centre."

Best Case Scenario: "Very good first-line centre."

Concerns: "I don't think it's size. It's physical strength."

Listen to Robin Brownlee Wednesdays and Thursdays from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. on the Jason Gregor Show on TEAM 1260.

Aceb4a1816f5fa09879a023b07d1a9b4
A sports writer since 1983, including stints at The Edmonton Journal and The Sun 1989-2007, I happily co-host the Jason Gregor Show on TSN 1260 twice a week and write when so inclined. Have the best damn lawn on the internet. Most important, I am Sam's dad. Follow me on Twitter at Robin_Brownlee. Or don't.
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#101 DieHard
May 09 2011, 03:15PM
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Unbeknownst to Oiler management, they have actually been rebuilding since they drafted Gagner.

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#102 rickithebear
May 09 2011, 03:26PM
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@Sean17

Sean: The best case and worst case is the visual aspect of a player. It is a guess! He could be this or could be that. Any

What is key is looking at history to see what chance there is of that best or worse player. To narrow the guess. To try and eliminate the mistake. Any one worse than 1.1PPG was studidity of uneducated scouting. What are the last 20 years of top 10 picks.

RNH: (30%g 70%A) (FWD )player. Stillman, Daigle, Kariya, Bonsignore, Kelly, Steffan, Beech, P-M bouchard, Brassard, Sheppard, Gagner, Hamill, Kadri,

Kariya had 3 PPg in a league twice as hard as the Dub. 30% chance of Best case Stillman, Gagner, Kadri, 60% chance of worst case Daigle, Hamill.

Couturier: (40%G 60%A) 6'3"+ 200LB+ (fwd) Warriner, Lindros, Yashin, Gratton, Arnott, Kilger, Thorton, Lecavalier, Bell, Heatley, Spezza, Nash, Staal, Horton, Van reimsdyck, E. Kane, Paajarvi, Neidereitter,

50% chance of Lindros, Stall, Nash 30% chance of Arnott Horton 20% chanc of Kilger Grattan.

Hubredeau: (42%G 48%A) 6'0" FWD Harvey, Oneill, Smyth, Convery, Weimer, Langkow, Doan, Ryan,Dumont, Marleau, Legwand, Brendl, Connoly, Torres, Hartnell, Weiss, Upshall, Lupul, Vanek, Ryan, Setaguchi, Toews, Kessel, Turris, Voracek, Couture, Stamkos, Wilson, Bailey, hodgson, Tavares, Duschene, Schenn, Glennie, Hall, Sequin, Skinner

40% chance of a Hall, Tavares, toews, Oneill, 26% chance of Hartnell, lupul, Dumont 20% of Ladd, Torres 14% of a Harvey, Weimer

Larsson: Productive SEL Dman 6"3" Hedman, Ekmann-Larsson

To Note Aki-berg played in a league 40% easier and did not get near the production of larsson. teerrible example. So we have to look at the last 25 yeasr of SEL to See the U18 Dmen in his range. lidstrom, K. Jonnson, M. Ohlund, N. Kronwall, T. Enstrom, J. Fransson, N Hjarmalson, j. Motin, Hedman, Karlsson, Rundbland, Erixon Larsson the two best pre draft production totals are from Hedman .30PPG and larsson .30PPG.

So RNH 30% Gagner 60% Bust Courtier 50% Staal 30% Arnott 20% Bust Hubredeau 40% Toews 26% Hartnell Dumont 17% Bust Larsson there are no busts and Pre Draft best offensive Dman in SEL Histrory.

I was a Hubredeau guy but you take Larsson #1 or trade to 3, 4 and takeone of Hubredeau, Couturier.

The 60% chance of bust and max of gagner Kadri makes RNH a 5-10 pick at best.

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#103 Archaeologuy
May 09 2011, 03:33PM
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Dman09 wrote:

I don't think he should play in the NHL next year but I don't really think he will improve a whole lot more unless he is in the AHL.

The Oilers should not give up either of their first two picks unless they move the LA pick higher. Ideally they should keep their 2nd as well but after that I think they are all fair game to be used a trade pieces for some better players. And if I was able to make one request to Tambi, bring back Smyth, I think his expierence and dedication with the Oilers and the NHL are exactly what this team needs right now. When he was traded I think that was when the players lost the sense of what it meant to be an Oiler.

Yeah, I think it's a shame that the only options are NHL or CHL. It would be great to send guys to the AHL at 18 if they're too good for the CHL but need more seasoning before getting eaten alive in the NHL.

Personally I think the teams need to have an exemption tag they can place on 1 player every season. That way RNH can play Pro Hockey next year, even if it isnt with the Oilers.

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#104 Crash
May 09 2011, 03:42PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

They've only been actively rebuilding for about a year and a half. I wouldnt call that "Infinite". And something tells me that trading current roster players and picks for young and talented players that can help the Oilers for years to come is NOT 10 minutes of work. If acquiring top 5 picks was easy then the Red Wings would have figured out how to do it long before you have. I'm inclined to believe that it is much more difficult than you have suggested.

Exactly, I've tried to get this point across before...especially when it comes to the Oilers surrounding what's here with veteran help.

What people can't seem to grasp is the Oilers are at a distinct disadvantage at attracting good veteran help to sign on. First off they are in the small city that is near last as an attractive destination for free agents and secondly, they are a 30th place team.

IMO it's this realization by Oiler management that good vets won't sign here to play for a team scraping every year to make the playoffs that has prompted the rebuild. Start from the ground up with youth, hopefully get them on board with staying together as a group and become a top end team for years to come rather than this continuous add pieces to compete for the bottom playoff spots every year. Once the youth pulls the team up out of the ashes, then, and only then will the better vets sign on to play here.

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#105 mayorpoop
May 09 2011, 03:47PM
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rickithebear wrote:

Sean: The best case and worst case is the visual aspect of a player. It is a guess! He could be this or could be that. Any

What is key is looking at history to see what chance there is of that best or worse player. To narrow the guess. To try and eliminate the mistake. Any one worse than 1.1PPG was studidity of uneducated scouting. What are the last 20 years of top 10 picks.

RNH: (30%g 70%A) (FWD )player. Stillman, Daigle, Kariya, Bonsignore, Kelly, Steffan, Beech, P-M bouchard, Brassard, Sheppard, Gagner, Hamill, Kadri,

Kariya had 3 PPg in a league twice as hard as the Dub. 30% chance of Best case Stillman, Gagner, Kadri, 60% chance of worst case Daigle, Hamill.

Couturier: (40%G 60%A) 6'3"+ 200LB+ (fwd) Warriner, Lindros, Yashin, Gratton, Arnott, Kilger, Thorton, Lecavalier, Bell, Heatley, Spezza, Nash, Staal, Horton, Van reimsdyck, E. Kane, Paajarvi, Neidereitter,

50% chance of Lindros, Stall, Nash 30% chance of Arnott Horton 20% chanc of Kilger Grattan.

Hubredeau: (42%G 48%A) 6'0" FWD Harvey, Oneill, Smyth, Convery, Weimer, Langkow, Doan, Ryan,Dumont, Marleau, Legwand, Brendl, Connoly, Torres, Hartnell, Weiss, Upshall, Lupul, Vanek, Ryan, Setaguchi, Toews, Kessel, Turris, Voracek, Couture, Stamkos, Wilson, Bailey, hodgson, Tavares, Duschene, Schenn, Glennie, Hall, Sequin, Skinner

40% chance of a Hall, Tavares, toews, Oneill, 26% chance of Hartnell, lupul, Dumont 20% of Ladd, Torres 14% of a Harvey, Weimer

Larsson: Productive SEL Dman 6"3" Hedman, Ekmann-Larsson

To Note Aki-berg played in a league 40% easier and did not get near the production of larsson. teerrible example. So we have to look at the last 25 yeasr of SEL to See the U18 Dmen in his range. lidstrom, K. Jonnson, M. Ohlund, N. Kronwall, T. Enstrom, J. Fransson, N Hjarmalson, j. Motin, Hedman, Karlsson, Rundbland, Erixon Larsson the two best pre draft production totals are from Hedman .30PPG and larsson .30PPG.

So RNH 30% Gagner 60% Bust Courtier 50% Staal 30% Arnott 20% Bust Hubredeau 40% Toews 26% Hartnell Dumont 17% Bust Larsson there are no busts and Pre Draft best offensive Dman in SEL Histrory.

I was a Hubredeau guy but you take Larsson #1 or trade to 3, 4 and takeone of Hubredeau, Couturier.

The 60% chance of bust and max of gagner Kadri makes RNH a 5-10 pick at best.

you should be top scout, sounds like for your numbers know more than anyone else.

sorry to bud but your post was curious and strangley informative. the only problem is im not sure what it informed me of...your opinion or real fact.

if you were to use that logic/reasoning/math to evaluate tavares over hedman or any of the past picks what would it tell you?

im not knocking what you to have to say it is just pretty bold.

good post.

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#106 Archaeologuy
May 09 2011, 03:52PM
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@Crash

I get why people keep saying they should trade for Bogosian or Gudbranson (who wouldnt want malcontent underachievers?) or sign capable veterans, but there is such a disconnect between some people's fantasies and the reality of the situation that it all becomes pointless.

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#107 Mantastic
May 09 2011, 03:53PM
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@Archaeologuy

i believe RNH could really still grow in the CHL. when you start gaining more weight, the way you play is slightly different and the chance for him experiement with shooting more or physical play with the tons of ice time he will be getting playing in junior would be better than time being spent in the AHL playing 2/3rd line duties.

i believe tons of ice time against actual competition is the best way to develop a player.

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#108 Crash
May 09 2011, 04:02PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

I get why people keep saying they should trade for Bogosian or Gudbranson (who wouldnt want malcontent underachievers?) or sign capable veterans, but there is such a disconnect between some people's fantasies and the reality of the situation that it all becomes pointless.

This is so true...it can't be put any better than that.

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#109 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
May 09 2011, 04:27PM
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@Archaeologuy

Well then lets just sit in this dark musty corner and take whats thrown in our general direction, take what's due to the Oilers. Heaven forbid someone gets off their arse and does something to better the clubs success next season. To sit idly by and accept what you're currently being fed is just pathetic. No ambition and no pride has us where we are today. Screw you guys.

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#110 Dman09
May 09 2011, 04:30PM
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Next up, is Connor McJesus. wrote:

Well then lets just sit in this dark musty corner and take whats thrown in our general direction, take what's due to the Oilers. Heaven forbid someone gets off their arse and does something to better the clubs success next season. To sit idly by and accept what you're currently being fed is just pathetic. No ambition and no pride has us where we are today. Screw you guys.

Agree the time to sit by is over, now is the time for some action and if Tambo can't make something happen then get him the fack out of there and get somebody that can.

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#111 Archaeologuy
May 09 2011, 04:44PM
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Next up, is Connor McJesus. wrote:

Well then lets just sit in this dark musty corner and take whats thrown in our general direction, take what's due to the Oilers. Heaven forbid someone gets off their arse and does something to better the clubs success next season. To sit idly by and accept what you're currently being fed is just pathetic. No ambition and no pride has us where we are today. Screw you guys.

Success next season isnt even the Goal. Success for a Decade is the Goal. Winning the Stanley Cup is the goal. That isnt going to be done without a solid base of talent. The Oilers havent been able to build a talented enough team to Win the Cup through any other means than through the draft in their entire history.

I just finished watching them try to trade for former lotto pick D-Men and make astute moves to get vets. It didnt work. I watched the Oil make RFA Offer sheets, trade for Norris trophy winning D-Men, trade for future 90+ point centres. In the end the Oil never had enough home grown talent to compete. Not in the Weight Era, the Pronger/Peca experiment, or the Nilsson years.

What I'm being fed now is a promise that all that crap is behind me and that the Oilers arent going to look for the quick fix bandaid solution.

I like what I'm being fed now, and what you're suggesting looks a lot like what I was being fed for the last 20 years prior.

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#112 Sheldon "Oilers Fan for Life!!!"
May 09 2011, 04:53PM
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As I sit here and read all of your musings I am so proud to be a fan of the Oilers Not because of the way the team is run.(It defies my understanding.) or because we are such a great hockey team.(I do believe our time will come again.) But because you truly are great fans and being a fan surrounded by much more knowledgeable fans such as your self's just makes even suffering better than the alternative. Being a fan of any other team in the League. So to all you on all these Oiler Blogs the writers and responders etc thank-you for making an other wise unbearable situation actually Fun and enjoyable far more often than logic says it should be. Keep writing, Hating spewing forth humor and venom I love it all I may even make it to Fall.

PS any other team would kill to have three pages of comments when they are in last place 2years running.

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#113 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
May 09 2011, 04:55PM
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@Archaeologuy

I didn't say we needed to win the cup next yr, is it too much to ask to finish within a dozen points of a playoff spot next year.....you certainly are passionate.

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#114 Archaeologuy
May 09 2011, 05:00PM
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Next up, is Connor McJesus. wrote:

I didn't say we needed to win the cup next yr, is it too much to ask to finish within a dozen points of a playoff spot next year.....you certainly are passionate.

Why thank you for sinking low enough to name-call. I feel as if my day isnt complete until someone's argument is so thoroughly crushed that they resort to calling me names.

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#115 @NateInVegas
May 09 2011, 05:12PM
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@Robin,

Will Team Nugent-Hopkins skip part of the combine like Edmonton's #1 did last year?

RNH 1st endorsement deal will be with Over Armour.

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#116 Wax Man Riley
May 09 2011, 05:13PM
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@Archaeologuy

Thank you for being the voice of reason. It's like you went into my head, mined all of my thoughts and put them together better than I could hope to.

The quick fix gets you chasing Penner, Vanek, and Heatly. We have seen that movie. We know how it ends.

They are restocking the cupboards right now because of choices like those. Choices like those have led us to the discussion on this website now.

Trading picks now and current players for higher picks is not the right thing to do. Higher picks aren't going to come in and make immediate impacts on this team. The picks this year will help the team in 2+ years, just as the picks 2+ years ago are helping the team today (or this coming season).

I don't totally disagree with what Quicksliver is saying though. We need some capable veterans to come in and help this team win so that these young players don't get used to losing. It just isn't as easy as "package Gagner and a 19th pick for Bogosian." If it was that easy, every team would do it.

If you were Atlanta would you do it? "Well just throw in Brule to sweeten it." What?? Brule makes the deal WORSE for Atlanta. This isn't NHL'08, where the more players you put in, the little bar goes up a bit more to even the deal out.

"Just sign some good free agents!" Well, sure, but that free agent has to want to sign on a 30th place club that is a frozen wonderland for most of the season. It is hard to find. Which is why we end up with Foster, who is trying to re-start his career, or Steve MacIntyre, who can't sign anywhere else.

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#117 Mantastic
May 09 2011, 05:18PM
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@@NateInVegas

i don't think so, the reason hallsy didn't do most of the combine was because he had such a long playoff run and being banged up, it wouldn't have represented what he actually brought to the table for combine numbers.

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#118 Wax Man Riley
May 09 2011, 05:19PM
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Sorry for the long post, I should have broken it up into parts so people would read it. I know I didn't offer a solution either.

The solution lies somewhere in between Quicks and Arch. They MUST find at least one, hopefully 2 capable blue-liners that have experience in this league. As well as at least 1 capable forward with experience. No rookies in the lineup this year. Too may rookies/sophomores already.

I would love to see Wisniewski on the back end. Laich on our front end and maybe Kopecky as well. Upshall maybe.

Guys that aren't going to cost $7M, but will have to be overpaid to come here. At least there is the cap room.

This will give some experience for the awesome rookies to build from. We do not need a 35% turnover though. They need some stability.

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#119 Wax Man Riley
May 09 2011, 05:21PM
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Sheldon "Oilers Fan for Life!!!" wrote:

As I sit here and read all of your musings I am so proud to be a fan of the Oilers Not because of the way the team is run.(It defies my understanding.) or because we are such a great hockey team.(I do believe our time will come again.) But because you truly are great fans and being a fan surrounded by much more knowledgeable fans such as your self's just makes even suffering better than the alternative. Being a fan of any other team in the League. So to all you on all these Oiler Blogs the writers and responders etc thank-you for making an other wise unbearable situation actually Fun and enjoyable far more often than logic says it should be. Keep writing, Hating spewing forth humor and venom I love it all I may even make it to Fall.

PS any other team would kill to have three pages of comments when they are in last place 2years running.

Amen Brotha! Amen!

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#120 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 09 2011, 07:07PM
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I don't know why any talk of improving the team next year is always met with so much venom around here.

Their has to be a happy medium met somewhere in here "sucking really bad and hoping like hell we draft a superstar" isn't going to build championship teams.

I know everyone likes to run and point to a handful of teams with the "look look!! They drafted high and won the Cup!!" looking a little closer then just the top 2-3 players will quickly show you their was alot more to those teams then simply 2-3 lottery picks.

The time is now to look to add a couple high end support pieces, the team ins't going to be able to flick a switch and go from 30th to cup in 2-3 years, we're going to need to make baby steps... lets start making them now.

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#121 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 09 2011, 07:07PM
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Wax Man Riley wrote:

Sorry for the long post, I should have broken it up into parts so people would read it. I know I didn't offer a solution either.

The solution lies somewhere in between Quicks and Arch. They MUST find at least one, hopefully 2 capable blue-liners that have experience in this league. As well as at least 1 capable forward with experience. No rookies in the lineup this year. Too may rookies/sophomores already.

I would love to see Wisniewski on the back end. Laich on our front end and maybe Kopecky as well. Upshall maybe.

Guys that aren't going to cost $7M, but will have to be overpaid to come here. At least there is the cap room.

This will give some experience for the awesome rookies to build from. We do not need a 35% turnover though. They need some stability.

Ah, I see most of my points have been addressed.

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#122 rickithebear
May 09 2011, 07:50PM
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@mayorpoop

No but I am a prospect junkie. NHL, NFL, CFL, MLS. I watch Tons of Video. Read scouting reports, Bantam, Highschool, Recruiting Info. I watch lots of games. I study trends. I like to use math as a decider when it comes to equal players. Is there family history a story of illness int he family. thats my 1-2hour break at the end of the night. from 3 kids and beautiful wife.

I am A riders, oilers, Detriot lions, Whitecaps, wigan fan. I watched 8 years of media driven drafting by Matt Milen and iam currently enjoying the heaven of a Manager who now takes the Best player available. who identifies talent and steals it. This year the best cover three down weak side OLB taken in the 5 th round cause he cold get him there.

We have that guy I think Stu the Magnificent......... Omark a smallish forward who WasPoint getter for Sweden at WJC then grow from 5'6" to 5'10" so St u takes a chance. Hartikkainen big physical winger with gals @ U18. Rajala breaks oveckins record at U18. motin 3 years SEL Dman.

I am an oilers Fan. i recognize that your veteran base is age 25 to 32. these are players who were drafted 7 to 14 years ago. do you know who we have left from that period. Horcoff and Hemsky. I did not suffer through this season to have us pick a player who matches up with players who productionis ends up 50% worse than expeced.

I watched video mR nugent hopkins. he is small and was flipped like a rag doll. driven off the puck. Oilchanges highlight of him Being flipped.

Goals win games. Preventing them wins games. While I apreciate hopkins set up skill. you take the best goal scorers in the top 5. RNH is at best a 20G scorer that ranks 120th in the league. the most important stat. he will be 120th. Taylor Hall will be Top 10 Stamkos will be top 10 Ryan will be top 15. Or while gregor questions taking a Dman there are the rare players that come once a year. Larsson ghas played against men in a league 2.7 times more dificult than the DUB.

So the possible 35-40 goal scorersthis year are Huberdeau and ritchie.

Your are probably going Ritchie??????????? but isn't he ranked 58-35 in all the draft sites.Yes. But his 16 year old year was one of the best in the chl.(fits stu MO) then he got Mono. .4ppg first half of the year. last half of the year his PPG would be top 5 in CHL plus he gets 50 % of his points from goals. Potential 35-40 n goal man. at worst 25-30 goals which is top 60-30.

i would like to take Larsson #1 and Ritchie #31 but the leafs Scouting department are hitting the same hidden gems. I do not think ritchie gets past them in the first round. If you do not take Larsson #1 the first 6 forwards are the same Nhl point wise strome and RNH are weak on the goal side so trade #1 to ottawa for #6 and hopefully #21. Take Mika Zibanejad/couturier #6 Musil/Brodin #19 Ritchie #21 Koklachev #31

A 35G 70p player#6 Future #3/4 Dman #19 #30-40G RW Koklachev 25-30G scorer.

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#123 @NateInVegas
May 09 2011, 08:20PM
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@rickithebear,

Nugent-Hopkins is better live than on YouTube.

Your math doesn't like Nugent-Hopkins, most people with eyes do.

Edmonton's just as likely to draft a quality defenseman at #19,31 & top 5 next year.

You can't pass on the #1 Center available twice.

Drafting an elite playmaker to complement Taylor Hall makes perfect sense.

You do the math!

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#124 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 09 2011, 08:21PM
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rickithebear wrote:

No but I am a prospect junkie. NHL, NFL, CFL, MLS. I watch Tons of Video. Read scouting reports, Bantam, Highschool, Recruiting Info. I watch lots of games. I study trends. I like to use math as a decider when it comes to equal players. Is there family history a story of illness int he family. thats my 1-2hour break at the end of the night. from 3 kids and beautiful wife.

I am A riders, oilers, Detriot lions, Whitecaps, wigan fan. I watched 8 years of media driven drafting by Matt Milen and iam currently enjoying the heaven of a Manager who now takes the Best player available. who identifies talent and steals it. This year the best cover three down weak side OLB taken in the 5 th round cause he cold get him there.

We have that guy I think Stu the Magnificent......... Omark a smallish forward who WasPoint getter for Sweden at WJC then grow from 5'6" to 5'10" so St u takes a chance. Hartikkainen big physical winger with gals @ U18. Rajala breaks oveckins record at U18. motin 3 years SEL Dman.

I am an oilers Fan. i recognize that your veteran base is age 25 to 32. these are players who were drafted 7 to 14 years ago. do you know who we have left from that period. Horcoff and Hemsky. I did not suffer through this season to have us pick a player who matches up with players who productionis ends up 50% worse than expeced.

I watched video mR nugent hopkins. he is small and was flipped like a rag doll. driven off the puck. Oilchanges highlight of him Being flipped.

Goals win games. Preventing them wins games. While I apreciate hopkins set up skill. you take the best goal scorers in the top 5. RNH is at best a 20G scorer that ranks 120th in the league. the most important stat. he will be 120th. Taylor Hall will be Top 10 Stamkos will be top 10 Ryan will be top 15. Or while gregor questions taking a Dman there are the rare players that come once a year. Larsson ghas played against men in a league 2.7 times more dificult than the DUB.

So the possible 35-40 goal scorersthis year are Huberdeau and ritchie.

Your are probably going Ritchie??????????? but isn't he ranked 58-35 in all the draft sites.Yes. But his 16 year old year was one of the best in the chl.(fits stu MO) then he got Mono. .4ppg first half of the year. last half of the year his PPG would be top 5 in CHL plus he gets 50 % of his points from goals. Potential 35-40 n goal man. at worst 25-30 goals which is top 60-30.

i would like to take Larsson #1 and Ritchie #31 but the leafs Scouting department are hitting the same hidden gems. I do not think ritchie gets past them in the first round. If you do not take Larsson #1 the first 6 forwards are the same Nhl point wise strome and RNH are weak on the goal side so trade #1 to ottawa for #6 and hopefully #21. Take Mika Zibanejad/couturier #6 Musil/Brodin #19 Ritchie #21 Koklachev #31

A 35G 70p player#6 Future #3/4 Dman #19 #30-40G RW Koklachev 25-30G scorer.

You've got some fascinating stuff, but how do you account for someone like Brad Richards?

He had 29% of his offense from goals in his draft year.

Sure he's not a huge goal scorer in the NHL, but I don't think you'll find many people that thinks he's much worse then a top 10 center.

I think we'd all be pretty pumped if we got a center that was even 90% of Richards.

Oh and Omark was a Pendergast pick ;)

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#125 Behind Enemy Lines
May 09 2011, 08:24PM
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Robin, big props for your prospect series with Stu. You are running circles around MSM. From the summaries it looks like RNH will be the guy although solid marks for Couturier. The scouts have far more information than our access via YouTube videos. I like Hopkins alot having seen him live each year since the Macs Midget tourney but I can't quite get the thought of what a big centre might mean for this team. Couturier at 24 could be both a physical beast and a 200 foot player with superior hockey IQ. Tough player to miss on but gotta trust the pro eyes who see these kids live and make their livelihood projecting their abilities.

Many thanks for going to the source for us. I enjoy your column and like Stu you have the professional chops from which to stake an opinion on all things Oiler. Keep it up,

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#126 Jamie
May 09 2011, 09:14PM
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@rickibear

The problem with your logic is that you are taking ONE stat (A/P) and saying that is the determing factor that ties them all together. Did Daigle and Bonsignore fail in the NHL BECAUSE they had a similiar A:P? Of course not. It does not predict future success and doesn't really indicate the type of player they will be. It may indicate whether they have a tendency to be a playmaker or a goalscorer and that is it. Period. If you want to make the argument that drafting a goalscorer is more important to an organization, fair enough, but to compare RNH or any prospect to Bonsignore because they have one stat in common is ridiculous. That's like saying 80%of the busts have red hair so if RNH is a ginger he has a 80% chance of being a bust.

The problem with using only math with prospects is that the supporting numbers are not always available (ie TOI) and that there are a host of off ice factors that will have a huge determination on whether the kid is successful or not. How big are his dad and brothers? What was his upbringing like? How does he do in school? What is his support system? Is he lazy? Does he LOVE to play hockey? Does he love to ride go carts? What type of team does he play on? Do you think if RNH and Huberdeau swapped teams last year they would have the exact stats? Of course not.

Successful teams need to have a thorough scouting staff that looks at every aspect of these kids lives, and then melds scouting with math to pick the right player. Then they need an outstanding development system to allow these kids have a chance to play to their potential.

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#127 Oilcruzer
May 09 2011, 09:17PM
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@Wax Man Riley

"This isn't NHL'08, where the more players you put in, the little bar goes up a bit more to even the deal out."

Thank you... -----

Nice work RB Top three. RNH, Larsson, SC.

Now, after number one, who trades, who picks and who gets picked?

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#128 Sean17
May 09 2011, 09:27PM
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@rickithebear

Dude! That was an intense reply! Awesome research! It certainly makes a strong case for not taking RNH as it appears they would be hoping he is an exceptions to the rules you have pointed out.

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#129 Oilfan00
May 09 2011, 09:28PM
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rickithebear wrote:

Sean: The best case and worst case is the visual aspect of a player. It is a guess! He could be this or could be that. Any

What is key is looking at history to see what chance there is of that best or worse player. To narrow the guess. To try and eliminate the mistake. Any one worse than 1.1PPG was studidity of uneducated scouting. What are the last 20 years of top 10 picks.

RNH: (30%g 70%A) (FWD )player. Stillman, Daigle, Kariya, Bonsignore, Kelly, Steffan, Beech, P-M bouchard, Brassard, Sheppard, Gagner, Hamill, Kadri,

Kariya had 3 PPg in a league twice as hard as the Dub. 30% chance of Best case Stillman, Gagner, Kadri, 60% chance of worst case Daigle, Hamill.

Couturier: (40%G 60%A) 6'3"+ 200LB+ (fwd) Warriner, Lindros, Yashin, Gratton, Arnott, Kilger, Thorton, Lecavalier, Bell, Heatley, Spezza, Nash, Staal, Horton, Van reimsdyck, E. Kane, Paajarvi, Neidereitter,

50% chance of Lindros, Stall, Nash 30% chance of Arnott Horton 20% chanc of Kilger Grattan.

Hubredeau: (42%G 48%A) 6'0" FWD Harvey, Oneill, Smyth, Convery, Weimer, Langkow, Doan, Ryan,Dumont, Marleau, Legwand, Brendl, Connoly, Torres, Hartnell, Weiss, Upshall, Lupul, Vanek, Ryan, Setaguchi, Toews, Kessel, Turris, Voracek, Couture, Stamkos, Wilson, Bailey, hodgson, Tavares, Duschene, Schenn, Glennie, Hall, Sequin, Skinner

40% chance of a Hall, Tavares, toews, Oneill, 26% chance of Hartnell, lupul, Dumont 20% of Ladd, Torres 14% of a Harvey, Weimer

Larsson: Productive SEL Dman 6"3" Hedman, Ekmann-Larsson

To Note Aki-berg played in a league 40% easier and did not get near the production of larsson. teerrible example. So we have to look at the last 25 yeasr of SEL to See the U18 Dmen in his range. lidstrom, K. Jonnson, M. Ohlund, N. Kronwall, T. Enstrom, J. Fransson, N Hjarmalson, j. Motin, Hedman, Karlsson, Rundbland, Erixon Larsson the two best pre draft production totals are from Hedman .30PPG and larsson .30PPG.

So RNH 30% Gagner 60% Bust Courtier 50% Staal 30% Arnott 20% Bust Hubredeau 40% Toews 26% Hartnell Dumont 17% Bust Larsson there are no busts and Pre Draft best offensive Dman in SEL Histrory.

I was a Hubredeau guy but you take Larsson #1 or trade to 3, 4 and takeone of Hubredeau, Couturier.

The 60% chance of bust and max of gagner Kadri makes RNH a 5-10 pick at best.

Im not trying to dispute your math because I like the thought process but what of the lack of points from Larsson that can't be discounted, you can't go through stats for everyone and then just say Larsson is a strong SEL DMan and compare him to good SEL Dman. That would be comparing RNH to strong WHL Centers which you are keen on not doing. I am interested in your math and I am an RNH guy, so how would RNH rate if he only got say 70 points and 50 were goals and 20 were assists? or even 40 goals 30 assists to be more realistic? He would have 36 points less but would he rate better by your numbers? I really like your math I am curious to how it works, from past prospects if you have used it before?

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#130 Oilfan00
May 09 2011, 09:31PM
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Also for people comparing RNH to Daigle for being a bust Daigle did put up 51 points his rookie year then 37 in 47 games the next and then another year at 50 games then another 51 point season in a full year and then he fell off the map so I don't think it was a bust from the start he had the talent he just fell off the map.

From the stats I see it looks like he get jerked around from NHL Junior, he started in the NHL for a full year then played half and half, then half an NHL year the year after then a full season. Anyone remember this or know more about it?

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#131 mayorpoop
May 09 2011, 09:31PM
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@Wax Man Riley

i always find your posts loigcal and articulate, thanks.

i as well derive sense from both arch and quick (quick whether i agree with your posts or not you are better than name calling, i like reading your stuff). like most things in life there must be balance....we can add but not while subtracting from the goal.

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#132 mayorpoop
May 09 2011, 09:38PM
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@rickithebear

i am a big sports junkie just not a formaulated fan. my opinions rarely are based on math but on what i see. numbers dont guide my thoughts.

i am intriqued by your standpoint but my eyes and ears tell me RNH is the BPA. i have faith in the scouts the pros, anyone other than me, in making the right decision.

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#133 speeds
May 09 2011, 09:56PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Success next season isnt even the Goal. Success for a Decade is the Goal. Winning the Stanley Cup is the goal. That isnt going to be done without a solid base of talent. The Oilers havent been able to build a talented enough team to Win the Cup through any other means than through the draft in their entire history.

I just finished watching them try to trade for former lotto pick D-Men and make astute moves to get vets. It didnt work. I watched the Oil make RFA Offer sheets, trade for Norris trophy winning D-Men, trade for future 90+ point centres. In the end the Oil never had enough home grown talent to compete. Not in the Weight Era, the Pronger/Peca experiment, or the Nilsson years.

What I'm being fed now is a promise that all that crap is behind me and that the Oilers arent going to look for the quick fix bandaid solution.

I like what I'm being fed now, and what you're suggesting looks a lot like what I was being fed for the last 20 years prior.

But, was the model broken, or was a good model just improperly executed?

Note:That is not to say that the Oilers wouldn't have benefited from more home grown talent - of course they would have and you'd always like to be developing more talent no matter how good you are at it.

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#134 RossCreekNation
May 09 2011, 10:38PM
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OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F wrote:

I see you are finally coming around to having Gagner on the wing!

Ditto. I don't understand why they haven't done this since his rookie season. He's a "poor-man's Hemsky"... or a replacement for Hemsky (trade him for a D-man).

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#135 The Bloody Glove
May 09 2011, 10:45PM
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mayorpoop wrote:

you should be top scout, sounds like for your numbers know more than anyone else.

sorry to bud but your post was curious and strangley informative. the only problem is im not sure what it informed me of...your opinion or real fact.

if you were to use that logic/reasoning/math to evaluate tavares over hedman or any of the past picks what would it tell you?

im not knocking what you to have to say it is just pretty bold.

good post.

I'm knocking it. Where are these numbers coming from? These numbers made zero sense. Where did Paul Kariya play that was twice has hard as the dub? Can you back that statement up? As a matter of fact, can you back any of these numbers or statements up?

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#136 rickithebear
May 09 2011, 10:46PM
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@mayorpoop

I used to be see it good as well until some one proved to me seeing good is not really fact or result. Results are all that count!

To your point Young men achieve these results in CHL. how these play out matters.

If this was a business(oh wait it is) how do you think your boss would react if you said I know i could have used the X from sweden cause it has never failed.

I took the X from western canada. The boss asks you if the X from the west has ever failed. you respond 60% of the time. the next words spoken would be "you are fired you idiot!"

to pretend that the risk of failure is acceptable is koolaid drinking at its finest.

As i said on lowetides site. Theres are alot of RNH people making excuses. I think he can, he should be able too. etc. The RNH people are the girl that dates the bad boy. He can Change, He isn't that bad. you don't understand.

As for Scouts and trusting them you are only as good as your last draft. If you go to hockey db and look at the players that make the show. the real good ones come from the top end of the drafts. 2 per year get you a good team in the 14 year in prime veteran cycle. 1996 Devereaux Descouteaux Hajt 1997 riesen dovigi 1998 Henrich 1999 Rita Semenov salmelainen 2000 Mikhnov Winchester 2001 Hemsky Lynch Caron 2002 ninnimaki JDD Stoll Greene 2003 MA pouliot Macdonald JFJ 2004 Dubnyk Schremp Tesliuk Paukovich

These Are the base for our team. Mess up one pick and it can role. though in stu we trust! just vote no to RNH!

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#137 rickithebear
May 09 2011, 11:21PM
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@The Bloody Glove

Petulent! Someone took my RNH doll and I am so Mad!

Some one did the work!

http://www.behindthenet.ca/projecting_to_nhl.php

If you question this then that is ignorance of moronic level.

As for each player:

Go to elite prospects site and select Stats:

Then pick your league:

Then pick a year then select U19 or U18 or Undrafted prospects.

They also have a draft section.

The 30%G players tend to get 50% or worse of expected nhle.

Now go away Petulent chi.......

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#138 OB1 Team Yakopov - F.S.T.N.F
May 09 2011, 11:51PM
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@NateInVegas wrote:

@rickithebear,

Nugent-Hopkins is better live than on YouTube.

Your math doesn't like Nugent-Hopkins, most people with eyes do.

Edmonton's just as likely to draft a quality defenseman at #19,31 & top 5 next year.

You can't pass on the #1 Center available twice.

Drafting an elite playmaker to complement Taylor Hall makes perfect sense.

You do the math!

Why not? Looks like they made the right choice by a mile doing it last year.

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#139 Oilfan00
May 10 2011, 12:24AM
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@rickithebear

Sorry to re-post rickithebear but I am interested in your math and I am an RNH guy, how would RNH rate if he only got say 70 points and 50 were goals and 20 were assists? or even 40 goals 30 assists to be more realistic? He would have 36 points less but would he rate better by the numbers? I really like the projections and comparing past players and I am curious to how it works, have you used it before for past prospects, any that you could whip up quickly like a Hall or Stamkos or maybe someone who was a bust recently?

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#140 michael
May 10 2011, 07:31AM
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Numbers be damned. If RNH scores 15-20 goals a season I'll be estatic. What? I said 15-20 goals is what I am expecting from RNH.On the other hand I am expecting 60-75 assists a year. If we all believe that RNH will play with Hall and Eberle then what we should expect to see is Hall in the 40-50 goal range and Eberle in the 30-40 goal range. Anyone on this site expecting RNH to come in and score 30-40 goal is drinking the koolaid. With the plethora of talent on this team, it seems unlikely that RNH will see the kind of icetime that other number 1 picks have seen in the past. Its not like we need RNH to come in and play 22 minutes a night right off the bat. I think we'll see a slow and steady increase in his numbers along with Hall and Eberle as they grow and mature as NHL players. Some of us need to get it out of our heads that this is a sprint. Its a marathon. Patience and SMB will lead us to Stanley Cup glory once again.

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#141 Truth
May 10 2011, 07:48AM
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I think everyone is discounting the fact that RNH is known for not ever taking a shift off. These players can have all the talent in the world but if they don't have any drive the talent is useless. I believe that is the case for most of the draft busts, such as Daigle (I have no proof, just something I have seen so many times with great talents that I have played hockey with who get passed in development because of their laziness, for lack of a better word). Look at Penner and Kovalev for examples who made the NHL but could be such better players, showing up for games they choose to.

Also, I remember the thing that the Oilers scouts liked so much about Hall was that he had so much drive for the game, he can only improve. Hell, Horcoffs compete level is the only reason he is the captiain and is not a third/fourth line regular.

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#142 speeds
May 10 2011, 08:58AM
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michael wrote:

Numbers be damned. If RNH scores 15-20 goals a season I'll be estatic. What? I said 15-20 goals is what I am expecting from RNH.On the other hand I am expecting 60-75 assists a year. If we all believe that RNH will play with Hall and Eberle then what we should expect to see is Hall in the 40-50 goal range and Eberle in the 30-40 goal range. Anyone on this site expecting RNH to come in and score 30-40 goal is drinking the koolaid. With the plethora of talent on this team, it seems unlikely that RNH will see the kind of icetime that other number 1 picks have seen in the past. Its not like we need RNH to come in and play 22 minutes a night right off the bat. I think we'll see a slow and steady increase in his numbers along with Hall and Eberle as they grow and mature as NHL players. Some of us need to get it out of our heads that this is a sprint. Its a marathon. Patience and SMB will lead us to Stanley Cup glory once again.

IF RNH's hockey sense is as elite as seems to be commonly suggested, it wouldn't shock me if he outperforms his goal projections as he plays with better players.

I don't know if the math says the following might have some merit, but it makes some kind of sense to me that if RNH is THAT elite at finding holes and reading the ice, he may score more goals as he starts to play with players more capable of finding him when he hits those empty spots in the offensive zone.

And I'm saying that, at this point, as a guy who would be leaning towards Couturier from the information I've read.

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#143 9 Inches Uncut
May 10 2011, 09:30AM
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Whoa Ricki. A Riders, Oilers, and Detroit Lions fan. Get into IPL Cricket and we could be sports bff.

We can still talk about Suh and Fairley wrecking quarterbacks for the next 10 years.

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#144 rickithebear
May 10 2011, 10:30AM
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@michael

I see RNH best case if everything works as Hemsky. alot of Fans screaming Shoot! and 15-22 goals a year. the problem is We have these guys already. Horcoff, Gagner, and Hamilton on his way.

Only one set-up guy per line. we need Potential top pairing Dman and goals scorers. RNH is the same player as Strome, Mark Scheifele, Shane Prince.

If you want RNH take Prince at #31. Prince 5'11" 185LB 59GP 25G(29%) 63A 88P 1.5PPG RNH 6'0" 170lb 69GM 31G(29%) 75A 106P 1.53PPG

You are getting the same production at #31. That is the key draft Management. Elite Goals scorers are hard to get after the first 5. You can get good assist guys later in the draft.

Calling all the bad boy girlfreinds with the RNH excusses.

Larsson #1 Ritchie #19 Prince #31 (RNH Clone)

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#145 Archaeologuy
May 10 2011, 10:35AM
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@rickithebear

So you dont want to draft RNH 1st overall because he's not an elite goal scorer, but drafting the defenseman with questionable offense 1st is still ok?

I'm interested in your numbers but I cant help but shake the feeling that you're making way too much up as you go along and presenting it as truth/fact.

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#146 rickithebear
May 10 2011, 10:52AM
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PS: If i had my druthers I trade down to #6 if it gets us #21.

#6 Couturier/Landeskog/Hubredeau/Zibanejad #19 Musil/Brodin #21 Ritchie #31 Klefbom

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#147 rickithebear
May 10 2011, 11:00AM
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Questionable offense????

So let me get this straight Larsson yeild his PP time to senior players and is asked to PK and play a defensive role this year. I was concerned as well.

So I checked how he ranked in SEL History.

So in the history of the SEL I wonder who had the best two pre draft years for offensive dman. There were two that tied for first at .25PPG

Hedman and Larsson.

So best ever is a problem offensively. Best Ever!

OH! OH! OH! Your input is ammazing! Are we on HF Boards.

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#148 Rickithebear
May 10 2011, 11:08AM
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@9 Inches Uncut

Used to watch limited overs worlds in the past Then IPL got back into it the last couple of years.

IPL On Sportsnet brought me back this year truly studying the Game and players. Long way to go!

Super kings Baby!

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#149 rickithebear
May 10 2011, 11:16AM
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9inchescut:

Culbreath is the Steal: Small school. Head coach and line coach come from the show. Say he would be in first if at big school.

Look at his Numbers compared to the top 5 OT he is the second Best athelete and long Arms plus he has maller hands from Wrestling.

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/probe.php?genpos=OT&draftyear=2011&sortby=tsxpos&order=ASC

He ran a 4.90 40 in front of the Detroit scouts. 320lbs.

Detroit took Murtha late in 2009. not as good an athelete or feet and Miami stole him off the practice squad. Murtha starts at RT now. Detroit wont risk this guy.

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#150 Archaeologuy
May 10 2011, 11:33AM
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@rickithebear

Stu MacGregor: "He's a good skater but he's not a great skater. His offence is only OK at this point."

That from the man whose sole job this year is to make sure this kid was worthy of being selected 1st overall.

Where he stands in history is meaningless if compared to his contemporaries he is "only OK".

My input carries no weight. Input from the Head Amateur Scout of the Edmonton Oilers carries a lot.

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