Andrew Cogliano and Asset Management
Jonathan Willis
July 19 2011 11:35PM
Earlier today, the Anaheim Ducks signed Andrew Cogliano to a three-year contract worth $2.39 million per season. Lowetide’s take on it is here, and he makes a quick comment on the Oilogosphere in the piece:
As an aside, if Steve Tambellini had signed this contract, I suspect Oiler Nation would be rushing to the internet to express their displeasure at the signing.
I think that deserves comment.
First off, I think it’s worth comparing the Cogliano contract to a couple of others. Ideally, these contracts would be to restricted free agent forwards, the players would be about the same age, and ideally they’d be signed this summer. Fortunately, we have two such examples to look at: Blake Wheeler and Michael Frolik.
- Blake Wheeler: Two years, $2.55 million cap hit
- Andrew Cogliano: Three years, $2.39 million cap hit
- Michael Frolik: Three years, $2.33 million cap hit
How do those players compare, given that their age, status and contract situations are all similar?
Cogliano scored 45 points as a rookie, and recorded 18 goals each of his first two seasons – thanks to a shooting percentage more than twice as high as he’s recorded in either of the last two seasons (where he’s scored 10 and 11 goals respectively). The question is whether his first two seasons or the last two seasons better represent his NHL ability; given the fact that recent results deserve more weight and that Cogliano’s shooting percentage was insanely good the first two years, I’d bet on the latter. If that’s the case, than while Cogliano’s game has come along, offensively he’s not likely to be a game-breaker. Over the last two seasons, he’s scored 1.39 and 1.33 points for every 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play.
Blake Wheeler, on the other hand, has scored 18, 18 and 21 goals over the last three years. His goal-scoring the last two years hasn’t been attributable to shooting percentage, and while he’s played a somewhat similar role to Cogliano on the depth chart (i.e. complementary forward) he’s been a far better scorer, topping the 2.00 points per 60 mark two of the last three seasons (including 2010-11, where he managed 2.20 points per 60).
Michael Frolik is far and away the most complete player of the three. He’s recorded between 38 and 45 points over the last three years. In two of the last three years, he’s topped the 20-goal plateau; last year he finished with 11 goals thanks to a massive drop in shooting percentage (an 8.4% career shooter, Frolik scored at just a 4.4% clip last season). He played on a tough minutes line with Stephen Weiss and Nathan Horton as a sophomore, and saw an unusual amount of quality opponents with Weiss as a rookie. He recorded 1.73 points per 60 last season, and while he’s not the scorer that Wheeler is, he’s better than Cogliano.
In short: Anaheim probably overpaid for Cogliano, relative to the market. Other restricted free agents in the same age range but with a better track record got almost identical dollars and terms, and while Cogliano might grow into the contract he probably isn’t there yet.
The dollar figure on Cogliano’s new contract makes Steve Tambellini look better for trading him. We might present it as a choice, one between Eric Belanger and a second round pick as well as roughly $700,000 in savings, or Andrew Cogliano. Given that Belanger’s the better player, cheaper, was available at no cost other than money, and most importantly fits team needs better, that’s a great choice.
Even so, on a rebuilding team, it may not have been an easy one to make. Trading Cogliano is a risk; he’s young, has scored in the past, has blazing speed and rarely left anyone questioning his effort level. He’s also been exceptionally durable.
Personally, I think it’s a smart risk. The Oilers have, in the past, been reluctant to sever ties with far worse players than Cogliano. Steve Tambellini made a smart choice here, and given that I’d be criticizing the signing (had he made it), it’s only fair that I acknowledge his strong asset management in this instance.
@VanFan1
Remember that time your team won the president's trophy and raised the banner before the season ended? Remember when they then lost in the finals because your albatross goalie cant hack the pressure? Remember?
I do.
No, Belanger moves him down the lineup.
As of right now our 4th line options consist of Eager, CVV, Lander, Hordichuk & Hartikainen.
None of whom are better than Cogliano.
@ dawgbone:
I see what you're saying, but the issue here is that I don't think it's clear that Cogliano was willing to play on the wing. Gregor's made that comment a couple of times, and without knowledge to the contrary I tend to take his word for it.
At centre, I prefer the current trio (10, 89 and Belanger) to Cogliano and suspect that in terms of fourth line performance relative to dollars spent the team is better off with Lander than Cogliano. And all that assumes RNH doesn't make the team, which he might.
Add Teddy Purcell to the list with Wheeler and Frolik. Stevie Y just signed him for 2 years at less than what Cogs got.
Who would you rather have out there? Cogs or Purcell?
One thing that isn't mentioned as much is the fact the the Ducks offered Cogs this money, this wasn't an arbitration award. Have to believe in Andrews case (minutes played alone)he was going to get atleast what the Ducks offered. If it does go to arbitration, perhaps it costs Anaheim as much as a half a million per year more.
Fine asset management, what a load of bunk. Where was this wisdom when 44 was being dealt with?
@VanFan1
Haha silly Vancouver fan, cups aren't for nuckz.
We still have the best 3 forwards in the league and a top 5 goalie. You have... hope?? You hope that things will turn around, you hope all the young players pan out to be everything you all desperatly need them to become. While we're gonna win the presidents trophy again and make another strong push in the playoffs, and this time Kesler will win the Art Ross, you will watch your team finish last and have another lottery pick.
Some good points there.
I see draft picks as free, they have no cost. By acquiring good players you accumulate the currency of operation, either in roster players or something to trade.
First round picks going awry are the hallmark of bad teams, and I think it's safe to say teams that draft and/or develop poorly usually aren't the good teams.
The Oilers long slide down was accompanied by lousy drafting and development, a lot of failed picks. You can't win them all, but you also can't blow it a bunch of times. If you do fail, you don't gain good players to play, you have little to trade, may have to create a hole to fill one, or overpay in free agency. Nothing good there.
As has been shown, anything after a first rounder is a long shot, so they have little value in reality, although GM's don't seem to know that.
We'll see if we lost value or not over the next few years for him in Anaheim. I have a feeling we likely did.
Kind of missing out on a pretty important name there. I seem to recall the Oilers drafting a Centerman this past year pretty early in the Draft. If he cant be as good as Cogliano then we kind of blew that pick, didnt we?
Cogliano was being groomed to play the 3rd line roll and kill some penalties. That's what Belanger is slated to do for us this season. If not him then Horcoff. Either way, both are better at the job than Cogliano.
He was replaced. The only way Cogliano wasnt replaced was if RNH failed to do the thing that every 1st overall forward has done since the fall of the Soviet Union: Make the NHL right away.
@VanFan1
And you Hope that you can clean the streets of all the debris and scorch marks every time you lose a playoff round.
Best 3 Forwards in the league? I must have missed the Trade that sent Crosby and Ovechkin to BC
I don't think you can make an assessment of any of these guys except Eager and Hordi. I think Eager and Cogs are such different players, you can't really compare them. For the role eager serves he is pretty damn good and cogs couldn't come close but you can also reverse that. And lets face it Hordi is an enforcer and Cogs isn't. Completely different purpose on the team. The other three however we haven't see play an entire season yet so we don't really have any comparision yet. I think all three have a chance at being better but only time will tell.
Does his willingness to play on the wing matter? Tell him he's a winger and throw him out on the wing every shift he takes.
Performance to dollars matters, but when you are a sub cap team (by a significant amount), use the cap space and make your team better.
@VanFan1
My cousins live on the island and are huge Canuck fans. They were pretty excited in September that this was the year. I agreed. Everything was aligning for this to be Vancouver's year.
A lot of your guys had career years. Luongo was Vezina calibre during the regular season, you have an Art Ross trophy, and everything seemed to roll along favourably for you.
But you guys chocked. Hard. As hard as anyone has choked in the post-lockout NHL. Next year and beyond, most of your guys won't have career years like they just did. It's unlikely that you'll have as easy a time walking through Chicago and San Jose next year, not to mention dealing with the up-and-coming LA.
I think your opportunity came and passed. In a couple of years we'll have our shot. But enjoy your President's trophy and Western Conference Championship because it's all you've got to show for it.*
*Not to mention piles of shattered glass and fans of legendary ill-repute.
Have a look at their cap right now. If RNH makes the team they will be at 60 mill
Very well said brudda! Took the words right out of my mouth. Props
Haha thanks for the link, brings back some memories and good laughs. For Cogliano's sake, I hope there's noone on Anaheim that weighs the same as him!*
* Because if he weighs the same as a duck, he is made of wood, and therefore, logically, is a witch. .....BURN HIM!!!
It bothers you that he denied the chance to FIST and did not 'make a statement' himself.
He wins.
@Archaeologuy
C'mon, you're better than than. I'm an Oilers fan in Vancouver and there is no reason to bring that into it. It's unnecessary.
Anyone who is familiar with what happened knows that that riot would have happened win or lose. It had nothing to do with the outcome of the game. Just a group of people taking advantage of the situation, followed by the whole crowd joining in like idiots.
I think you certainly can make a pretty accyrat assessment of all of them, with maybe Lander being the one unique player.
CVV is the same age as Cogliano and is well behind him developmentally speaking. Cogs was doing the samething as an NCAA freshman as CVV was doing as a Senior. CVV struggled at the AHL level for most of the year last year.
Hartikainen is a decent prospect, but I think even his biggest fans will admit he's still another couple of years from being an NHL regular.
Lander is a bit of a wild card in that he's still pretty young and has played in a pretty good league the past few years, but using Paajarvi as a high benchmark that puts him behind Cogliano sitll.
I'm also not talking about the role of a player on the team (because personally speaking, the role Hordichuk fills is a useless one), but actually ability to play hockey.
If the 6 players you have on the ice are better players than the 6 the other team have you are going to come out ahead. Just get as many good players as you can afford throughout your lineup and you'll be a good team.
Ya we had debris and scorch marks after the riot... but your city looks like Beirut, Lebanon compared to Vancouver. And your hockey team is Midget AA compared to ours.. Truth hurts doesn't it?
@VanFan1
Not really. This team really has been terrible for years. If that hurts anybody's feeling then they really have drank too much Kool-Aid.
At least you have that Western Conference Championship banner to look at. Come to think of it, we got ourselves one of those not too long ago either. The only difference is that nobody HERE thinks that's an accomplishment worth celebrating.
And this is why 75% of Canadians were cheering for the Bruins in the SCF.
Nothing made me happier than seeing the Bruins hoist the cup in your home rink.
@VanFan1
Sorry to interupt your discussion VanFan.
I was interested in those 4 Louis Vuitton handbags you had for sale on Kijiji, by any chance are they still available?
@Greg Stink | ESPN
Nope. All's fair. If anything, I shouldnt be feeding the troll, but it's of Anthropological interest to study the hurt outlashings of a perennially disappointed Canuck Fan in the middle of July.
Owed your mom some money, so I just gave them to her.
Who is celebrating?? And you guys still drink Kool-Aid??
@VanFan1
Someone is just a tad angry that their Canucks jersey didn't sell on ebay last month. That's a few hundred smackaroons down the drain eh?
Hold onto it, right now the market is flooded!
Oooohhhh. Contest!
A free sleeve of golf balls and a replica Smytty mullet for whoever comes up with the best VanFan1 burn.
Here I go:
Hey VanFan1, are all Canuck fans asexual eunuchs like the Green Guys, or do you pitch a tent when you have sweet dreams about the Sedin Sisters?
Snap!
VV in his short stint in the NHL had a 52.8 face percentage. Cogs wasn't near that. Yes it is a small sample size but still a reason to be optimistic. Also the role on the team is everything. Vancouver vs Boston is a good comparision of this. The most talented line in the league did nothing in the stanley cup finals. And the role players took the games over.
By your reasoning you would put out a team full of Gagners and try to play them against a heavy forechecking team like boston. They would get torn apart even though they have more of what you consider talent.
@VanFan1
I saw the Canucks movie was on TV the other night - 40 Year Old Virgin
Or rioting over.
---
I've lived here a year now. The (my) predictions held true about Van.
Playoffs. "When the going gets tough, the Sedins dive, turtle, and whine."
Playoffs wean out officials in training. The quality officials will punish hockey teams that try to
cheatdive. I.E. Don't embarrass an official, in any sport. Not only won't you get the dive, you won't get a legit call either.Holy cow, did VanFan1 really say his team has one, (let alone three) players who are better than Datsyuk, or Crosby, or Ovy, or Lidstrom, or Thomas?
YOU RESIDE IN EDMONTON!!!
SNAP!
I WIN!
Smythies return has yet another undiscovered beneficial use: Holding up his number to a Canuck fan acts like a crucifix to a vampire. '94, the other year where the Canucks choked in game 7!
EDIT: .....SNAP!
What u win? I see non-affordable housing. I see traffic hell. I see rain and plus 14 instead of a thing called summer. I see high insurance costs. I see high taxes.
Some win.
They're more of a soccer city, really. Hence all the diving and long greasy haircuts.
....but the plaintiff claims to have nailed my mom. I'm so confused, i just don't know who to believe anymore.
[Places Dan Hill, Sometimes when we Touch back in the 8 track player]
@ VANFAN
You lost the cup again!! WE WIN!!
Ya non-affordable to people from Edmonton. Ya there is traffic, because many people want to move here, so ya traffic will occur and there's things to do here... on that note...how is your mall?? still around? I thought they would have torn it down to build another dingy factory. People flock to Vancouver cuz we da best!
Excellent point there nucks fan
The SNAP! (capital letters always win) definately won me over
I now see that because I dont live in Vancouver myself and my hockey team are extremely inferior to all the people that live there.
I also now see that every other hockey team in the league is inferior to the Canucks. Putting up that presidents trophy banner before the playoffs proved that to be 100% true....
That still leaves plenty of cap room + bonuses.
Hope Canuck fans enjoyed the confetti shower in the west final because that's as close to a celebration as they're gonna get.
That was the year for the Canucks. It's downhill from here on in.
We aim to please.
Hope you enjoyed your stay now.
@dawgbone
4 mil left, there is no way they would go right to the cap. they are still looking and willing to trade for a top dman and will need that space to make sure they can make a move should something come along. Also there is no point being that close to the cap if your not aiming for the playoffs.
Face-offs are just one very small part of the game. Unless of course you want to argue that Malholtra is a better player than Sedin because he has a 62% face-off percentage while Sedin is nowhere near that.
Vancouver vs Boston is a comparison of what happens when one goaltender plays lights out and the other one struggles. A .967 save percentage hides a lot of team flaws.
And my reasoning never mentioned the word talented. I said better players. And out of this hypothetical 5 gagners vs 5 bruins, which team gets Tim Thomas?
I'm assuming that a trade for a top dman is also going to include roster players, so that will eat up some of the cap hit.
And aiming for the playoffs is exactly what this team should have been doing. There were/are still plenty of good veteran players out there who could make this team significantly better.
They took half the steps necessary to solidify their lineup (acquired Smyth & Belanger), but then made a bunch of other strange moves that don't make them a better hockey team (Eager, Hordichuk, Sutton, Barker).
Wouldn't matter the gagners can't play good defensive hockey even if you have Bulin in net for both i would still bet money on 5 bruins. Also part of thomas's success in net was the bruins defensive play. They blocked a lot of shots, cleared the shooting lanes for thomas, kept a lot to the outside and limited the allowed shots from in close. Thomas even said it him self the team did a good job of making sure he could see the puck to make the stops and clearing rebounds.
Faceoffs is a small thing that can be very important. Winning faceoffs increases your puck possession time, the more time you have with the puck the more likely you are to have shots on goal and/or clear the zone to limit shots for the other team. Its all the little things together that make a winning team
They aren't looking for a 1 hit wonder, thats why they are taking their time getting lots of good young players and making sure the additions they commit and a lot of money to are going to be the right fit for the long term of the team.
I would also disagree about Eager. I think he does make the team a fair bit better and will make them more competitive. He has a lot of talent but also bring the emotion and physical aspects to the game. Thats exactly what the Oilers have been missing. Hordi is just backup for when we meet up with other teams who employ guys like big Mac. If Sutton returns to form that he was a couple seasons ago he will make the team a lot better. Barker is a wild card with no real risk behind him. He may develope into a very good top4. You just never know.
As far as cap, likely move would be a salary around the 2 mill mark and a prospect and they would be looking at a guy making close to 7. A team likely to make a trade like this will probably be looking to dump some salary. The only exception is if they decide to trade hemsky. Nobody else with a big contract is moveable.
Is Hordichuk, Sutton or Smyth long term additions to the team? More long term than a 25 year old the team has already spent 4 years developing?
In terms of Eager, Sutton and Hordichuck:
1. Hordichuk needs to face another goon and based on last year and Smac, he will dress for 30 or so games and occupy a roster spot and a 700k cap hit.
2. Eager is definitely an upgrade on Jacques (most people with a pulse are), but I don't think he improves this team in any real significant way. He'll still be an 8-10 minute per night player who doesn't kill penalties.
3. Sutton isn't 32 anymore. He's got age and injuries going against him. It's like expecting Smyth to be 2005-06 Smyth. It's probably not going to happen.
In terms of the trade for a d-man, there's 1 NHL defenceman who makes $7mil/season (Brian Campbell). There's 8 who make $6mil or more.
Chances are that it's not going to be one of those guys that the Oilers acquire (if they acquire one at all).
Let's leave the comments about various ethnicities out of this discussion.
I think you underestimate how much leadership and energy can an entire team and Eager brings that. And true we wouldn't be looking at Brain Campbell but we would be looking for a Drew Doughty, or Shea Weber which are both likely to be 6.5 mill plus.
You right Sutton isn't 32 to anymore but he also isn't 45. Last year the second best defenseman was Lidstrom 41 so it not like its impossible to see Sutton put up 15 points and be a good defensive D. After all thats all he was back then.
And to finish off its not always about making sure every player on your team is a long term solution. You need a good mix of Vets and young guys the same as you need offesive stars, tweeners and role players.