Andrew Cogliano and Asset Management
Jonathan Willis
July 19 2011 11:35PM
Earlier today, the Anaheim Ducks signed Andrew Cogliano to a three-year contract worth $2.39 million per season. Lowetide’s take on it is here, and he makes a quick comment on the Oilogosphere in the piece:
As an aside, if Steve Tambellini had signed this contract, I suspect Oiler Nation would be rushing to the internet to express their displeasure at the signing.
I think that deserves comment.
First off, I think it’s worth comparing the Cogliano contract to a couple of others. Ideally, these contracts would be to restricted free agent forwards, the players would be about the same age, and ideally they’d be signed this summer. Fortunately, we have two such examples to look at: Blake Wheeler and Michael Frolik.
- Blake Wheeler: Two years, $2.55 million cap hit
- Andrew Cogliano: Three years, $2.39 million cap hit
- Michael Frolik: Three years, $2.33 million cap hit
How do those players compare, given that their age, status and contract situations are all similar?
Cogliano scored 45 points as a rookie, and recorded 18 goals each of his first two seasons – thanks to a shooting percentage more than twice as high as he’s recorded in either of the last two seasons (where he’s scored 10 and 11 goals respectively). The question is whether his first two seasons or the last two seasons better represent his NHL ability; given the fact that recent results deserve more weight and that Cogliano’s shooting percentage was insanely good the first two years, I’d bet on the latter. If that’s the case, than while Cogliano’s game has come along, offensively he’s not likely to be a game-breaker. Over the last two seasons, he’s scored 1.39 and 1.33 points for every 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play.

Blake Wheeler, on the other hand, has scored 18, 18 and 21 goals over the last three years. His goal-scoring the last two years hasn’t been attributable to shooting percentage, and while he’s played a somewhat similar role to Cogliano on the depth chart (i.e. complementary forward) he’s been a far better scorer, topping the 2.00 points per 60 mark two of the last three seasons (including 2010-11, where he managed 2.20 points per 60).

Michael Frolik is far and away the most complete player of the three. He’s recorded between 38 and 45 points over the last three years. In two of the last three years, he’s topped the 20-goal plateau; last year he finished with 11 goals thanks to a massive drop in shooting percentage (an 8.4% career shooter, Frolik scored at just a 4.4% clip last season). He played on a tough minutes line with Stephen Weiss and Nathan Horton as a sophomore, and saw an unusual amount of quality opponents with Weiss as a rookie. He recorded 1.73 points per 60 last season, and while he’s not the scorer that Wheeler is, he’s better than Cogliano.
In short: Anaheim probably overpaid for Cogliano, relative to the market. Other restricted free agents in the same age range but with a better track record got almost identical dollars and terms, and while Cogliano might grow into the contract he probably isn’t there yet.
The dollar figure on Cogliano’s new contract makes Steve Tambellini look better for trading him. We might present it as a choice, one between Eric Belanger and a second round pick as well as roughly $700,000 in savings, or Andrew Cogliano. Given that Belanger’s the better player, cheaper, was available at no cost other than money, and most importantly fits team needs better, that’s a great choice.
Even so, on a rebuilding team, it may not have been an easy one to make. Trading Cogliano is a risk; he’s young, has scored in the past, has blazing speed and rarely left anyone questioning his effort level. He’s also been exceptionally durable.
Personally, I think it’s a smart risk. The Oilers have, in the past, been reluctant to sever ties with far worse players than Cogliano. Steve Tambellini made a smart choice here, and given that I’d be criticizing the signing (had he made it), it’s only fair that I acknowledge his strong asset management in this instance.
He "won" with capital letters and exclamation points so he's out
And after mentioning Quicksilvers mom
What does that have to do with the article?I hope someone gives you a FIST...JK JK...kinda #nohardfeeling #RINGDING
Yeah i'm glad i'm not the only one thinking this. Cogs, no matter how much i like him, just didnt have a place anymore with the oilers. Too many small guys and we have bigger guys who have comparable skills ala Lander
Props for sitting there, waiting for a new post!
I don't see Wheeler or Frolik as comparable players in terms of abilities to Cogliano. But he's young, and he has that 'never know' thing still going on.
But it's clear that other players on the Oilers are more worth keeping (Omark, Gags), and ST got a fair return for a young, unproven player.
So a bit of 'numbers game' and 'arbitration uncertainty' playing against Cogliano as an Oiler, but I'm not sure he's hurting too much, going to a team with Getzlaf, Perry, Ryan and Selane.
Agree with JW. It's a win-win. Oilers' moves have a much better chance of paying off and Cogliano - who seems like a good kid - gets overpaid after being underpaid here in Edmonton (at least compared to what Brule, Gags, POS, etc. were getting); more importantly, he gets 3 years of security.
The only probable loser here is Anaheim; but we already knew that when they signed JDD to a weird one-way (in his 2nd year) contract.
Good luck to Cogliano. Getting that contract from LA leads me to believe that his agent should be our Federal Finance minister. With the player's obvious shortcomings that is a generous deal. Lombardi must realize he has the Sword of Damocles hanging over his neck right about now. Overpaying Andrew Cogliano seems to me to be a questionable call. Cogliano gets there as fast as anyone in the league but when you can't finish the job upon arrival I wonder how well he'll do offensively.
In my opinion, Lombardi's desperation and overpayment of Cogliano's contract doesn't necessarily translate into goal production for LA.
I find it somewhat amusing that some commenters feel that Lombardi's relatively generous contract terms makes the decision to trade him by the Oil questionable.
The only error made by the Oil was drafting too many small skilled forwards and now they are trying to go in a new direction.
^^^ Anaheim, not LA. wrong rant.
^ That reason BTW was to get the #1 draft pick. It's hard to develop players properly when the real goal is to tank the season.
Tambi would have been eaten alive if he had signed this deal.
It's way too rich for someone like Cogs.
Cogs is getting half a million more a year than Belanger? *rhetorical note*
Way over paid... so glad we got rid of Cogs.. he's a good guy.. but if this is the cash he was looking for from the Oilers then it's too much... He should be getting 40-50 points every season minimum in my eyes for that cash and he's nowhere near that...
Somewhat agree with David S. Cogs is going to a team with more playing depth and a more developed atmosphere as a cohesive team. The Oilers are getting there and should be there within 2-3 seasons. The other issue at play though (and this affects the whole team) is that the Oil has been decimated by injuries every season for the last 3-4 years, mostly to the teams stars and leaders. Because of that they have to fill in these spots with the call-ups. It's hard to develop that team chemistry with your leaders and best players when they aren't playing and knowing that those call-ups can be sent down at any time. That being said though, a really good player can play with anyone. I say in 3 years Cogs will be playing close to the level that was expected of him when he was drafted.
Ya, decent deal by Tambillini.
I'd far rather have Belanger + 2nd over Cogs.
Good summer all around, maybe he's a better GM then I've been giving him credit for and he was in fact tanking last year.
Good comparables, Willis. Cogliano, Wheeler, and Frolik are all food young players who have been traded by the team that drafted them within the last six months.
Maybe it's a good sign that as good as they all are, none of them would be good enough to be guaranteed a spot on the wing on any of the Oilers' top 3 lines. This is why Ray Shero is a genius: there is an abundance of fast wingers in the NHL. You can commit less than $2.5M to them as they're effectively interchangeable.
Good deal, someone had to go because there just wasn't anymore room. It was either him or Brule and they couldn't trade or buyout Brule in the end. And if that is the price he was asking Tambo for I think that was a no go for him.
I agree Tambo is turning onto a real GM and not just a concept.
@Jonathan Willis
Good question.
Based on the Oilers roster today, I think I'd honestly take Jones at 1.5 over Cogs at 2.4.
I think we need a averge or bigger winger that plays with a bit of an edge and can score a bit over a small center that is good defensively and on the PK and can score a bit but can't win a FO and brings no physical element.
I also don't buy into the whole Jones is the worst player in the NHL based on one year of SC against data though.
I didn't say he was turning into a real GM, he's dug a huge hole and still has a long way to go to get out of it.
He has had a decent summer though.
I think the issues was that Jones became a fan favorite so Tambo signed just to keep everyone happy. I would take Cogs over Jones anyday. I've never seen a player that can't seem to stay on his feet like Jones. Even when noone is around him he seems to fall. I think the fans might be very disappointed this coming season with Jone's performance.
Yeah, I thought 2 Mill would be the high end for Cogs, and as it turns out he has a contract that escalates over his three years all above that number.
He was my Star last year so I wish him well, but I have to think that the contract is more of a gamble than a reflection of his current worth. Who knows though, it's not like the Oil havent moved away young players that turn out to be good pros before.
I feel pretty good about the return considering the team obviously didnt have room for him at all and needed the contract/roster space. He was buried on the depth chart and on the verge of moving even further down in the very near future with RNH and Lander in the fold, but even without those guys he was #4 on the NHL chart. If the team had properly recognized that Cogliano had very little future at Centre with the Oil and stuck him on the wing all of last season to see if he can learn that position then he might still be here, but even that is a guess.
The thing that struck me when this deal was signed is that I couldn't have imagined that Cogliano would have gotten more than 2 mil per season had he gone to arbitration.
Given what he ended up signing for I'm OK with the Oilers letting him go. 2.4 is too high for someone who may end up as a 4th liner here.
@Has Taylor Hall asked to be traded, yet?
Maybe if Khabby got his save % up then Gags defensive % will rise. You can't blame poor goaltending on the forwards all the time!
After watching that clip, I realize how much I miss Pitkanen. He may not always be a gamer, but watching his skill was pure pleasure. I remember the one goal where he got pass in the neutral zone, got on his horse, split two Red Wing defenders, took a snapper from the hash and went shelf. http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?hlp=8470137
I remember pinching myself and thinking, this must be 1985 and I`m watching Paul Coffey. But I learned hes a player who likes to tease you once in awhile with moments of brillence and the rest of the time hes average. Pitkanen with his skill seems like he should be a better player. The guy can skate like a deer, has a hard accurate shot, great vision, but he just doesn`t seem like he can get to that elite level....
Now we can add one more comparable.
Tampa signed Teddy Purcell
Purcell agreed to a 2-year, $4.725 million deal.
Career highs of 17 goals, 34 assists and 51 points in 81 games last season for the Lightning. Purcell had 17 points in 18 games during the Bolts' run to the conference finals.
That was a rant? Mea culpa.
There are likely better players to be had at that salary that would fit better for what's needed.
For me the issue is another first round pick wasted essentially. Cogliano I think has more to him than a second round pick, unless we get really lucky.
Looking through the drafts going back on LT, and all the picks that washed out or were traded for poor return, it's no wonder the team has been slowly imploding.
Even if a player loses his place on the team, developing him to maximum value increases the "equity" on the team if the GM isn't a bonehead.
Our drafting has seemingly improved, I hope pro scouting and player management follow soon.
@Jonathan Willis
To play Devil's advocate, wouldn't it have been better "asset management" to have signed him to a 3 year, 5 mil deal last summer*, and pumped his stats up with a bit more PP time this past season?
* Some might call this hindsight, and it would be if you weren't saying that at the time. Of course, it takes two parties to agree to a longer term deal than the one year Cogliano got, and we don't know that he was or wasn't willing to do that. I think it's reasonable to suggest he would have been for a 3 year deal, say, a 1.5 mil cap hit, but others might disagree. And they might be right (or wrong), we don't really have the necessary information to be definitive.
I dont know how badly that Cogliano 1st rounder was wasted. The Oilers got 4 cheap years and 328 games out of a player chosen 25th overall THEN they flipped him for a pick that could be as high as 31st (unlikely). He's probably played more games than the average 25th overall pick and then netted the Oil a 2nd rounder even though there was no place for him on the team at his given position.
That said, there are some really interesting players taken in the next 10 picks that followed him and even deeper into the 2nd and 3rd round that year.
Still, I think he covered the bet pretty well and was flipped for not much less than what he originally cost.
However, he was followed up in the draft by the following names: Downie, Neal, Vlasic, Stastny, Raymond, and Letang.
Just a few points on the Cogs move to Anaheim:
-Cogliano has Todd Marchant like speed, durability and a similar scoring touch so it's really a no brainer The Ducks making the deal with The Oil on the heels of Marchant retiring. Because the two players have similar styles, I think The Ducks are hoping Cogs can turn the corner and figure out his role as an NHL'er the way Marchant did.
-Good move on Tambos part. If Cogs were to get say $2million/season from The Oilers, he would have to become a 50%+ faceoff guy at least in order to justify the contract. Asking Cogs to reach that face off % is possibly asking too much from a guy who's been consistantly inconsistant in the dot. While Cogs is only 24 yrs old, how much more time do you give a guy to discover his game? Good Luck Cogs!
- A few people have made reference to the Ryan Jones signing comparing Jones to Cogliano. I don't think the comparisons are fair. Jones is 3 years older, 3 inches taller, is more physical AND can take the odd faceoff. While he has to break through the sophomore jinx this year and break the 20 goal mark and possibly put up 20-25 assits, he's an effective player who seems to have found a role in a single full season. Cogliano after 4 years had yet to find that consistant playing style which would have justified a contract raise/extension.
Thoughts...?
@dawgbone
But they did replace Cogs with a better player...
Remember when Cogliano, Gagne and Penner were gonna take the Oilers to a championship? Weren't you bragging about your kids back then?... Cue up another oil change.
@VanFan1
Nothing more annoying that a cherry picking fan of another team who can't even spell a player's name right.
Damnit it's GAGNER !
Not the Sundin twins or Loongo or Kezler or Beksa.
No, Belanger moves him down the lineup.
As of right now our 4th line options consist of Eager, CVV, Lander, Hordichuk & Hartikainen.
None of whom are better than Cogliano.
Add Teddy Purcell to the list with Wheeler and Frolik. Stevie Y just signed him for 2 years at less than what Cogs got.
Who would you rather have out there? Cogs or Purcell?
One thing that isn't mentioned as much is the fact the the Ducks offered Cogs this money, this wasn't an arbitration award. Have to believe in Andrews case (minutes played alone)he was going to get atleast what the Ducks offered. If it does go to arbitration, perhaps it costs Anaheim as much as a half a million per year more.
Fine asset management, what a load of bunk. Where was this wisdom when 44 was being dealt with?
We still have the best 3 forwards in the league and a top 5 goalie. You have... hope?? You hope that things will turn around, you hope all the young players pan out to be everything you all desperatly need them to become. While we're gonna win the presidents trophy again and make another strong push in the playoffs, and this time Kesler will win the Art Ross, you will watch your team finish last and have another lottery pick.
Some good points there.
I see draft picks as free, they have no cost. By acquiring good players you accumulate the currency of operation, either in roster players or something to trade.
First round picks going awry are the hallmark of bad teams, and I think it's safe to say teams that draft and/or develop poorly usually aren't the good teams.
The Oilers long slide down was accompanied by lousy drafting and development, a lot of failed picks. You can't win them all, but you also can't blow it a bunch of times. If you do fail, you don't gain good players to play, you have little to trade, may have to create a hole to fill one, or overpay in free agency. Nothing good there.
As has been shown, anything after a first rounder is a long shot, so they have little value in reality, although GM's don't seem to know that.
We'll see if we lost value or not over the next few years for him in Anaheim. I have a feeling we likely did.
Kind of missing out on a pretty important name there. I seem to recall the Oilers drafting a Centerman this past year pretty early in the Draft. If he cant be as good as Cogliano then we kind of blew that pick, didnt we?
Cogliano was being groomed to play the 3rd line roll and kill some penalties. That's what Belanger is slated to do for us this season. If not him then Horcoff. Either way, both are better at the job than Cogliano.
He was replaced. The only way Cogliano wasnt replaced was if RNH failed to do the thing that every 1st overall forward has done since the fall of the Soviet Union: Make the NHL right away.
I don't think you can make an assessment of any of these guys except Eager and Hordi. I think Eager and Cogs are such different players, you can't really compare them. For the role eager serves he is pretty damn good and cogs couldn't come close but you can also reverse that. And lets face it Hordi is an enforcer and Cogs isn't. Completely different purpose on the team. The other three however we haven't see play an entire season yet so we don't really have any comparision yet. I think all three have a chance at being better but only time will tell.
Does his willingness to play on the wing matter? Tell him he's a winger and throw him out on the wing every shift he takes.
Performance to dollars matters, but when you are a sub cap team (by a significant amount), use the cap space and make your team better.
Have a look at their cap right now. If RNH makes the team they will be at 60 mill
Very well said brudda! Took the words right out of my mouth. Props
Haha thanks for the link, brings back some memories and good laughs. For Cogliano's sake, I hope there's noone on Anaheim that weighs the same as him!*
* Because if he weighs the same as a duck, he is made of wood, and therefore, logically, is a witch. .....BURN HIM!!!
@Archaeologuy
C'mon, you're better than than. I'm an Oilers fan in Vancouver and there is no reason to bring that into it. It's unnecessary.
Anyone who is familiar with what happened knows that that riot would have happened win or lose. It had nothing to do with the outcome of the game. Just a group of people taking advantage of the situation, followed by the whole crowd joining in like idiots.
Ya we had debris and scorch marks after the riot... but your city looks like Beirut, Lebanon compared to Vancouver. And your hockey team is Midget AA compared to ours.. Truth hurts doesn't it?
Owed your mom some money, so I just gave them to her.
Who is celebrating?? And you guys still drink Kool-Aid??
VV in his short stint in the NHL had a 52.8 face percentage. Cogs wasn't near that. Yes it is a small sample size but still a reason to be optimistic. Also the role on the team is everything. Vancouver vs Boston is a good comparision of this. The most talented line in the league did nothing in the stanley cup finals. And the role players took the games over.
By your reasoning you would put out a team full of Gagners and try to play them against a heavy forechecking team like boston. They would get torn apart even though they have more of what you consider talent.
YOU RESIDE IN EDMONTON!!!
SNAP!
I WIN!
Ya non-affordable to people from Edmonton. Ya there is traffic, because many people want to move here, so ya traffic will occur and there's things to do here... on that note...how is your mall?? still around? I thought they would have torn it down to build another dingy factory. People flock to Vancouver cuz we da best!