Who's Leaving?

Lowetide
July 03 2011 08:03AM

With this weekend's additions, the Edmonton Oilers now have 16 forwards for 14 available spots. Someone is leaving town.

Steve Tambellini has made some very nice moves since the entry draft, but there's more work to do. The NHL team has 16 forwards and that's too many. Here's a look at the keepers, the suspects and the possible line combinations. The list goes from most likely to make the roster to least likely.

  1. L Taylor Hall: The franchise has a roster spot secured for the next decade, and the big question here is who will play on his line. If RNH makes the team, I'd expect Hall and Eberle to be the wingers on the ultimate Kid Line. That might not last the pre-season if the line struggles from the pressure, so expect Horcoff to slide into the middle between Hall and Eberle should that happen.
  2. R Jordan Eberle: Led his team in points as a rookie and showed impressive growth over the year (although that first NHL goal will live forever). I believe Eberle's immediate future is tied to Hall's--they were successful linemates a year ago, why mess with success? RNH and Horcoff are the likely centers.
  3. L Magnus Paajarvi: Fleet Swede had a solid rookie season (34 points) and displayed some impressive play away from the puck. Found chem after Christmas with Omark and I think that duo will continue, albeit with a different center than a year ago (Gagner). We've talked about all of the '10 rookie wingers moving to center, and I think MP might be the best candidate. For now, I think the best option for them at center is either newcomer Belanger or Horcoff (should RNH make the team on the Kid Line).
  4. L Ryan Smyth: Huge acquisition for the Oilers. I think Smyth will team up with Hemsky no matter the center, and further believe the first candidate for the role should be Sam Gagner. He has chem with Hemsky and if things roll well that line could either play the tougher minutes or scald the soft parade.
  5. C Shawn Horcoff: Despite age and not possessing the foot speed he had in 2006 spring, Horcoff will once again play an important role on the team. I think there's a strong possibility he gets MP/Omark if Nugent-Hopkins grabs the 1line job. The Oilers could also go with a designated veteran line and reuniting him with Smyth and Hemsky. That's a tough call, though. Still too much youth on the other lines to leave them alone.
  6. R Ales Hemsky: Gifted winger is apparently healthy and ready to roll in 11-12. The Oilers will attempt to sign him and then put him in a position to succeed before shopping 83 at the deadline. My guess is that he's tied to Smyth for the regular season, with center's Gagner and Horcoff getting time between them.
  7. C Sam Gagner: Young center has made progress at the NHL level despite point totals in the low 40's. Very intelligent player who can riff off veterans extremely well, I'd hope coach Renney gives him veteran linemates Ryan Smyth and Ales Hemsky in an effort to have a 1line that can protect the Kid Line. I don't see Gagner centering MP and Omark again, he never did figure out the two Swedes imo.
  8. C Eric Belanger: An absolute Godsend for this forward group. He can play up and down the lineup and I'd guess that he will do just that over the season. Most likely linemates would be MP/Omark and Eager/Jones on the third unit.
  9. R Linus Omark: I can't think of a line combination that has him playing apart from Paajarvi, so it's a matter of which center they line up with most nights. My guess is that Shawn Horcoff or Eric Belanger and their 2-way skills will be best used between the gifted Swedish wingers.
  10. L Ben Eager: I see lots of people saying he's a 4line crash and banger, but I think Eager may end up playing higher on the depth chart. A designated 2-way line of Belanger-Eager-Jones is possible and he could also play 4line minutes with Cogliano at center and Hordichuk on the wing. I also believe there will be times he'll take a spin with the kids just to keep everyone honest.
  11. R Ryan Jones: I believe Jones will play with Belanger and Eager on the 4line, but could also see times where he's patrolling the 4line with Hordichuk and Cogliano.
  12. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: Makes the list this late because there's just no way RNH plays a secondary role. He either makes it as a member of the top 2 skill lines or he's going back. Most believe (as do I) that he's going to get those 9 games to succeed. I think he'll stay. Wingmen options include Hall-Eberle and Smyth-Hemsky. I don't like the RNH-Hemsky fit because Hemsky is all reaction and feel and RNH is all vision and thinking the game. I don't like the match, we'll see.
  13. C Andrew Cogliano: Coach Renney said several times last season that he felt Cogliano was making progress as a two way player. I think Cogs may continue that role, this time with physical Ben Eager and energy guy Ryan Jones on his wings. A secondary possibility would be sliding Cogliano between the two Swedes, but that could be chaotic in the Oilers zone.
  14. R Darcy Hordichuk: I think some may be getting the wrong idea about Hordichuk. I see him as a huge upgrade over Steve MacIntyre as a player, but don't believe he's going to play 80 games and see 6 minutes a night. Hordichuk will enter the season as the 14th man and be utilized in a depth role. That's how I see it, anyway.
  15. L Teemu Hartikainen: He starts TC as the last guy sent out/first call up from my point of view. He could make the big club if one of the incumbents shows up at least than 100% in terms of conditioning, but I can't see a way for him to make it straight up at this time.
  16. R Gilbert Brule: I think his NHL career is at a crossroads. The unfortunate circumstances surrounding the LAK deal for Ryan Smyth made Brule a quesiton mark across the league. I can't imagine an NHL team trading for him now, there's a clear medical reason for the deal to have been turned away. My guess is LTIR until he can get things back together again.

With all of that as a  backdrop, here's how I see the lines breaking down:

  1. Gagner-Smyth-Hemsky
  2. RNH-Hall-Eberle
  3. Horcoff-Paajarvi-Omark
  4. Belanger-Eager-Jones
  5. Extras: Cogliano-Hordichuk
  6. Minors: Hartikainen
  7. LTIR: Brule

WHO'S LEAVING?

One of the centermen, either Cogliano, Gagner or Horcoff. Hopefully the club will acquire a top 4 shutdown defender in the deal. After that, I believe they'll either send down Hartikainen or LTIR Brule to set the roster.

C2a6955161684b5e3189319acfa5ebe4
Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
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#51 TLHansum
July 03 2011, 09:07AM
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a lg dubl dubl wrote:

Id be somewhat surprised to see a trade happen before TC just to see if RNH makes the team, if he does say bye-bye to Cogs. Horcoff with his contract and leadership isn't goin anywhere, and Gagner still has to much upside to be sent packing.

Brule...if he is healthy i could see being put on waivers just because no GM is giving up a warm body for him or gets traded to TO...could be the #1 center Burke is lookin for ;)-

Could be the #1 center Burke is lookin for! Bahahaha!

You've put light into my life this morning. Best comment ever.

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#52 Oilcruzer
July 03 2011, 09:08AM
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Kid line, while sexy, has downsides. Another one of those is the raw speed and creativity needs to be developed at NHL levels for all these players, while they still learn to skate through traffic as kids in a mans game

RNH w 94 n Ales makes sense.

Keeping Cogs makes sense too. Unfortunately, trading he and or Gagner are the most plausible scenarios / likely to happen.

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#53 a lg dubl dubl
July 03 2011, 09:20AM
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@TLHansum

and Brule comes with "truculence" too!!!

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#55 Skidplate
July 03 2011, 09:26AM
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@Lowetide

I would agree with your thoughts on RNH and Hemsky. Plus there is only 1 puck and both players need it to be successful.

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#56 dman09
July 03 2011, 09:31AM
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Lowetide wrote:

That's the beauty of the Belanger signing imo. Should the Oilers deal Cogliano as a for instance and then RNH doesn't make the team, C might be Horcoff-Gagner-Belanger-Lander.

The Oilers have options at center now.

Finally someone brings up Lander. I'm really excited to see this guy play and I hope he makes the team. Not to mention that even if Lander can't take the spot VV looked pretty good last season and could run away with the 4c position. I'm not worried about center right now. Even without cogs and brule we are sitting in a pretty sweet position.

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#57 Jimmer
July 03 2011, 09:34AM
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@Lowetide

A year full of "soft minutes" for RNH-Hall-Eberle is just what the doctor ordered....yes?

Let Horcoff-Hemmer-Smyth play against the other team's top line and get kicked....no reason to ruin the confidence of our "future stars."

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#58 dman09
July 03 2011, 09:36AM
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Lowetide wrote:

Two things: first, I think the smart move is dealing Cogliano for a defenseman. Maybe add something but get a guy who can play on the blue.

Second, Hemsky is not a straight up and down the wing kind of winger. Very creative, but it's a lot about quick reaction and then finding a zone and some time to find the open man.

I'm not sure that translates for RNH, who is also very creative and sees the ice well, finds a zone and some time to find an open man.

For me, they're not a great match. Thoughts? Out to lunch? Crazy?

Totally agree, he needs to be with player attack the net. Thats also y putting him with Hall Eberle makes so much sense. The only problem is the defensive game for that group. But you never know, we'll just have to wait and see what happens. I wouldn't surprise me to see Lander pairing up with MPS and Omark and doing a good job. Both are familiar with him being from the same country and I think he might bring some good leadership for those two. Something they can easily relate to. And if his defensive game is as good as they say and MPS improves a little more because of it. That could make for a very good line.

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#59 Archaeologuy
July 03 2011, 09:42AM
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@Lowetide

I dont know if youre crazy, but I havent seen enough of RNH to say that he cant play with Hemsky. Truth be told Ive come to find that many people dont know how to play effectively with Hemsky so maybe it will take an elite creative talent to really capitalize on Hemsky's actions out there.

I think the safe bet with Hemsky is to give him some predictable linemates with enough skill to finish. I think thats why Hemsky and Horc played so well together when Horc could still hit the broad side of a barn with his onetimers. Horc has been coached into the NHL. He knows where hes supposed to be and youre never left guessing what hes doing out there (positionally). That pairs up well with Hemsky who dangles and dances past guys and creates mismatches or openings for the other guys.

BUT RNH represents the El Dorado of Hemsky linemates. He might be the guy whose elite vision and talent makes Hemsky go supernova. That could prove to be a myth (most likely), but what if....

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#61 Tapdog
July 03 2011, 09:46AM
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godot10 wrote:

I think both Hall and Nugent-Hopkins still should have a veteran chaperone at even strength for at least this season.

Horcoff for Hall. Smyth for Nugent-Hopkins

You want Smyth on the bench beside Nugent-Hopkins "mentoring".

I would tend to agree but if RNH makes this team there is no place left for Gagner! Sorry but it is true..

Hall - Horcoff - Hemsky Smyth - RNH - Eberle MPS - Belanger - Omark Eager - Cogs - Jones

For Gagner to succeed he needs top 6 ice time.

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#63 Archaeologuy
July 03 2011, 09:47AM
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Tapdog wrote:

I would tend to agree but if RNH makes this team there is no place left for Gagner! Sorry but it is true..

Hall - Horcoff - Hemsky Smyth - RNH - Eberle MPS - Belanger - Omark Eager - Cogs - Jones

For Gagner to succeed he needs top 6 ice time.

And how many years do you honestly feel Horcoff has left in him as a top 2 centre?

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#64 jake
July 03 2011, 09:49AM
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Lowetide wrote:

Two things: first, I think the smart move is dealing Cogliano for a defenseman. Maybe add something but get a guy who can play on the blue.

Second, Hemsky is not a straight up and down the wing kind of winger. Very creative, but it's a lot about quick reaction and then finding a zone and some time to find the open man.

I'm not sure that translates for RNH, who is also very creative and sees the ice well, finds a zone and some time to find an open man.

For me, they're not a great match. Thoughts? Out to lunch? Crazy?

LT, are you talking ES or PP?

I am not sure either would work. If there is one thing the Oilers have to address in the future is firing the puck at the net more.

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#66 Tapdog
July 03 2011, 09:53AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

And how many years do you honestly feel Horcoff has left in him as a top 2 centre?

Not many but with the addition of Belanger the options are top 2!

I suppose you can play Gagner in the 3 hole but he has no chemistry with the Swedes and for some reason I think that Belanger will.

Honestly I think Gagner is better suited to play the wing here. If Hemsky gets traded I would slot Gagner right into his spot!

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#67 Sparky
July 03 2011, 10:02AM
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I don't see a problem with another kid line, as long as they aren't getting first line minutes! And I have to believe everyone wants to see the nostalgia line again IMO.

I think cogs has to be the odd man out, I think Sammy G will hit his stride this season with the reduced pressure, and with the recent acquisitions Cogs doesn't really fit anymore. Not to mention the fact he has been mentioned in trade rumors before.

I really hope Lander gets a good look as well. It's kinda nice having all these options, but it would really suck to have to send a guy down simply because we have to many bodies.

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#68 Tapdog
July 03 2011, 10:02AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Thats exactly why I wouldnt move Gagner. Hes versatile, cheap, young, and productive enough to still be in the top 9 (I think top 6).

To me he starts the year between Smyth and Hemsky and we really get a good idea of what this guy can do with legit NHL linemates. Im pro Gagner in the top 6, but even if hes pushed below the top 6 this year, Id rather have him moving forward than Cogliano, because I think Gagner has infinitely more upside.

Hey I have no problem with that line and I think he would do well there.

It is just that if RNH makes the team that would push Horc to Line 3 and Belanger down to 4 and make Cogs a trade chip.

If we like it or not, with all the young kids here sooner or later one is moving.

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#69 Skidplate
July 03 2011, 10:18AM
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Leafs trade Brett Lebda and Robert Slaney to Nashville for Mat Lombardi and Cody Franson. I sure would have liked Franson.

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#70 GrottySpoon
July 03 2011, 10:20AM
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@Lowetide

How are all the centers going to be dealed with if they can't get a good replacment for them? What is going to happen to Cogs if the teams will give let's say a sixth rounder for him? Will ST take a deal like that?

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#71 Skidplate
July 03 2011, 10:22AM
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Seems like a bad trade for Nashville. We should have been able to do better. Maybe they wanted to trade outside the Western Division.

Slaney http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/robert_slaney

Lebda http://tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/bio/?id=2855

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#72 Skidplate
July 03 2011, 10:23AM
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@GrottySpoon

Not enough for Cogs. Better to put a package together and get a real NHL defenceman.

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#73 DBO
July 03 2011, 10:24AM
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One guy we are forgetting is Lander. He may the perfect compliment to Hemsky. He is, from all reports, a great two way player, rises to the occasion, and his hockey IQ is off the charts. Maybe he is the best compliment to Hemsky. I hoped to see Lander in the bigs this coming year. With Belanger in the fold and Cogs a possible trade candidate, i hope to see this lineup:

Smyth-Gagner-Hemsky (tough minutes)

HAll-Horcoff-Eberle (2nd toughs)

MPS-Lander-Omark (gravy soft opposition)

Eager-Belanger-Jones (more of a true checking line)

not sure if those lines would work, but I like the idea of the all swede line playing soft minutes. they would eat up a lot of bottom 6 lines, and with the vets throughout the rest of the lineup you can play PvP.

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#74 Bucknuck
July 03 2011, 10:25AM
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The only way that anyone should get moved is if a Solid D is coming back the other way. Otherwise stand pat and lets see what healthy bodies, plugged holes, and a year of experience gives you. My big concern right now is Goal, and I am hopeful that will be solved soon.

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#75 Sox and Oil
July 03 2011, 10:29AM
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Skidplate wrote:

Seems like a bad trade for Nashville. We should have been able to do better. Maybe they wanted to trade outside the Western Division.

Slaney http://www.hockeysfuture.com/prospects/robert_slaney

Lebda http://tsn.ca/nhl/teams/players/bio/?id=2855

I agree it makes little sense. It seems like they wanted to get rid of Lombardi but they now 12.5 mill below the floor. Maybe they want a Vintage* Nikolai Khabbibulin?

*Not really vintage just old.

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#76 etownman
July 03 2011, 10:30AM
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Breakerdog wrote:

@ LT:

LTIR for Brule would look really bad after offering him up in trade and pinky swearing that he was good to go.

I agree & personally I don't think there's anything wrong with Brule. In my eyes this was clearly gamesmanship by Lombardi to squeeze a little more out of a bad situation for the Kings. RNH will be back in Red Deer & Brule will be on the roster, probably as an extra & who knows he could grab the 4L job between Eager & Jones. I also think Cogs might be a candidate to be moved.

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#77 DBO
July 03 2011, 10:37AM
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The TO-NAS trade is pure salary dump for Nashville. they will re-sign Weber and make a play for a better winger now. TO also has a glut of defenseman, so maybe they are in the market for a trade.

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#78 justDOit
July 03 2011, 10:42AM
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I really can't see much of a player coming back for Cogs - maybe a 2nd round pick. So with our need on D, it might have to be Hemmer that gets moved, with maybe Cogs as well to sweeten the deal.

That would take care of the glut of smallish forwards, create some space for Lander, and give more ice time for someone like Omark, who I believe will make even bigger strides as a player this year (pun intended).

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#79 Sox and Oil
July 03 2011, 10:47AM
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justDOit wrote:

I really can't see much of a player coming back for Cogs - maybe a 2nd round pick. So with our need on D, it might have to be Hemmer that gets moved, with maybe Cogs as well to sweeten the deal.

That would take care of the glut of smallish forwards, create some space for Lander, and give more ice time for someone like Omark, who I believe will make even bigger strides as a player this year (pun intended).

Toronto just got Franson (a RH top 4D) for Brett Lebda and a bounce around minor leaguer. You have to figure that Cogs (a young Ironhorse) plus either Chorney or Plante could return a actual NHL player or 2. Although nowhere near as good as Franson.

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#81 Kodiak
July 03 2011, 10:50AM
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I think the big picture is to have Nugent-Hopkins and Hall develop some chemistry. That means putting them together with a veteran.

If Gagner stays I think we'd see: Smyth/Gagner/Eberle. Hall/NH/Hemsky. MPS/Horcoff/Omark or Cogs Eager/Belanger/Jones

If Gagner moves I think it would be: Smyth/Horcoff/Eberle Hall/NH/Hemsky MPS/Belanger/Jones Eager/Cogliano/Hartikainen

Either way, one of Cogs or Omark goes.

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#82 Tapdog
July 03 2011, 10:54AM
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justDOit wrote:

I really can't see much of a player coming back for Cogs - maybe a 2nd round pick. So with our need on D, it might have to be Hemmer that gets moved, with maybe Cogs as well to sweeten the deal.

That would take care of the glut of smallish forwards, create some space for Lander, and give more ice time for someone like Omark, who I believe will make even bigger strides as a player this year (pun intended).

Would you target a Ryan Suter?

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#83 Kodiak
July 03 2011, 11:12AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Thats exactly why I wouldnt move Gagner. Hes versatile, cheap, young, and productive enough to still be in the top 9 (I think top 6).

To me he starts the year between Smyth and Hemsky and we really get a good idea of what this guy can do with legit NHL linemates. Im pro Gagner in the top 6, but even if hes pushed below the top 6 this year, Id rather have him moving forward than Cogliano, because I think Gagner has infinitely more upside.

Can you explain to me how you see Gagner as being versatile? I see Gagner as the most one dimensional player on the team. The only role he fits in is as an offensive center.

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#84 justDOit
July 03 2011, 11:13AM
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Tapdog wrote:

Would you target a Ryan Suter?

Who wouldn't? What I don't see is Nashville letting him go easily - is he impending UFA after this season?

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#85 kgo
July 03 2011, 11:30AM
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I think Horcoff will get traded in the next 16 months...Belanger can play his role as 3C, and Smyth will take his captaincy...they would love to dump his contract

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#86 horndog77
July 03 2011, 11:41AM
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@kgo

Absolutely agree about Horcoff, if teams are sniffing around and will take him off the Oilers hands they should. His contract is not worth the product. Shawn is a good player but times are a changing, and would allow RNH and Gagner and Belanger and Lander to step in. If the Oil could trade him and draft picks for a good defensemen they should do it.

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#87 CanaDave
July 03 2011, 11:43AM
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I'm glad to see I'm not the only one thinking that Omark might be the one to go, whether it's via trade or involving him going back to OKC to start the year playing with Lander. To a team up against the cap ceiling like Philly or Washington, Omark ELC is probably much more appealing than Gagner's 2.275 or the 1.5ish Cogs will probably get from either the Oilers or an arbitrator.

In the spirit of the thread, my trade offer would be Omark/Chorney+ for Dennis Wideman. It saves the Caps 2 mil this season that they can use to resign Alzner and if the Oilers are selling at the trade deadline Wideman could bring back comparable talent or a decent draft pick since he's only got 1 year left on his deal.

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#88 horndog77
July 03 2011, 11:55AM
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I just looked at the Caps salary and I believe they would need more than 2 million to resign both Alzner and Brouwer, maybe the rumor of Mike Green being traded is a possibility. Would the Oilers be interested in Green?

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#89 Mrs. Potato Dick
July 03 2011, 11:56AM
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Lowetide, what scenario can you see that has Horcoff getting traded? Between his poisen-pill contract and his value in the Oilers lineup I just can't see that being realistic.

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#90 horndog77
July 03 2011, 12:02PM
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I agree that losing Horcoff would be worse for faceoffs, but most times you have to give something to get something. And I think the Oilers would be smart to have money available to get a premier defensemen to play with all that talent up front.

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#91 knobby
July 03 2011, 12:10PM
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I was thrilled to see our-much maligned GM (often by me) actively GM'ing. How these players react to playing in Edmonton will be interesting. Here's hoping they are not just another version of Fraser, JFJ and Storts. Their play being way underwhelming most nights. I was jumping up and down on my Laz-e-boy as the moves by the Oil rolled in. These signings seem to allow the Oil to (a) protect the younguns' and (b) slow down their entry into the NHL until they are more ready.

I lack the personality, character and chutzpah to apologize vocally and publicly to Tambo and the Oil...but just imagine I am thinking it.

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#92 justDOit
July 03 2011, 12:10PM
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According to capgeek.com, we have almost $9M in cap space, and have to qualify Cogs, Chorney and Peckham - who will total out to about $3M.

So if a Mike Green lands in Oilerville, we'd be able to fit him into the cap without actually getting rid of any players. No 'need' to jettison Horc, or his contract.

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#93 a lg dubl dubl
July 03 2011, 12:12PM
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HUGE NEWS!!! JOSH GREEN JUST SIGNED WITH THE OILERS!!!

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#94 In the Grease
July 03 2011, 12:13PM
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Oilers land a different Green...Josh. One year two way contract signed today according to Oilers' site.

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#96 In the Grease
July 03 2011, 12:14PM
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a lg dubl dubl wrote:

HUGE NEWS!!! JOSH GREEN JUST SIGNED WITH THE OILERS!!!

Ha... we're on the same timing again... but your turn to scoop me. lol

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#97 justDOit
July 03 2011, 12:16PM
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a lg dubl dubl wrote:

HUGE NEWS!!! JOSH GREEN JUST SIGNED WITH THE OILERS!!!

I guess this confirms it - large double double is actually treenasoil on twitter - I can see the similarities!

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#98 Bucknuck
July 03 2011, 12:19PM
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Another left winger? Aren't we just a little deep on LW?

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#99 justDOit
July 03 2011, 12:22PM
Trash it!
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Cheers
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@Bucknuck

He's listed as a C, at least he was when he played for us 10 yrs ago...

Are we bringing back Sven Butenschon next?

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#100 CanaDave
July 03 2011, 12:24PM
Trash it!
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trashes
Cheers
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cheers

In 2 years from now Horcoff can submit a list of teams he'd be willing to waive his NMC to be traded to, I find it much more likely he'll be traded at that point. Even with the injuries, Horc has had a multiyear run as a #1 center in the NHL, and has all sorts of experience to pass on down to RNH and Gagner, assuming of course they are willing to listen.

Based on the added toughness to the lineup and the fact the Oilers have already signed RNH to his entry level contract I think everyone's mock lineups are going to have to include RNH in them from this point forward. Unless he makes the worst impression ever on Renney in training camp, I don't see how he doesn't make the team this fall. Horcoff-RNH-Gagner-Belanger (in some order) at Center with Cogs playing wing seems pretty likely to me as it stands right now.

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