43 DAYS: A MATTER OF PERCEPTION
Robin Brownlee
January 16 2012 10:00PM
All the suggestions around here that Tom Renney isn't the right coach for the Edmonton Oilers and that GM Steve Tambellini has bungled the rebuild and should be out the door ass-first sooner than later is great for debate.
Likewise, all the discussion about who is and isn't in the plans for the Oilers and who fans would either like to see, or expect to see, sent packing by the NHL trade deadline on Feb. 27, which is 43 days from now.
While that's a lot of fun, it also goes to show how quickly perceptions can and do change over a relatively short period of time. That's especially true in Oil Country, where the bandwagon can be rolling like a runaway train on a winning stretch of road with fans feeling like there's no end in sight, only to end up upside down and on fire in the ditch around the next corner.
Might many of you still think Tambellini is a boob in need of a pink slip 43 days from now? Sure. Might you still shudder at Renney's use of personnel then? Maybe. Should the Oilers, 17-23-4 for 38 points and hopelessly out of playoff contention as of today, be willing to trade anybody not named Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle by Feb. 27? Done.
Then again, 43 days is a long time. If you go back that far, to Dec. 5, Oilers fans were in a distinctly different mood than they are today. How have your perceptions about this team, and what it needs in terms of personnel moves and changes in the front office or behind the bench, changed since then?
BACK IN TIME
-- On Dec. 5, the Oilers were 13-11-3 for 29 points, which had them sitting in 10th place. San Jose held down eighth place with 29 points and Phoenix was ninth, also with 29. Did you think Tambellini a bungler then?
-- Back then, the Oilers were five points ahead of the Calgary Flames, who were 11-13-2 for 24 points. Was Renney overmatched as a tactician? Today, the Flames are nine points ahead of the Oilers with a 21-20-5 record.
-- On Dec. 5, the Minnesota Wild sat atop the Western Conference with 37 points from a record of 17-7-3. Wasn't Mike Yeo a candidate for the Jack Adams Award? Today, Minnesota sits eighth at 22-16-7 for 51 points.
-- In the 43 days since Dec. 5, when the Oilers sat within a whisker of a playoff spot, they've gone 4-12-1. It's a skid that's been greased by the losses to injury of Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Tom Gilbert and Ryan Whitney. At what point did you decide Ales Hemsky had to go? Or do you still beg to differ with those who feel that way?
Sure, some of you wanted Tambellini gone 43 days ago regardless of the standings at the time. He still hadn't put this team together right, it just wasn't as obvious. And, yes, some of you were screaming about Renney's lines and who he used in certain situations even when this team was in the hunt, just not as loudly as now. Granted and granted.
Suffice to say, it'll be interesting to see what the pulse is here an hour before and an hour after the trade deadline comes and goes 43 days from now. A lot can change between now and then. Just saying . . .
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I think Lowe panicked, I feel that the ducks could have given up much more value off the roster. Pronger was a pro and I think he would have played till a better deal could be worked out, we had the best player in hockey at 32 yr old and gave him away and tried patching the roster up. Don't stick up for failure. Getzlaf and there 1st or hang up phone.
@admiralmark
right on, that is exactly how i feel! the small glimpse this year of what our team can do when they are healthy was a lotta fun to watch. i am ready for 2 more years of small improvements to end up challenging for a division title.
@Quicksilver ballet
No bonuses.
The big plus is that means it doesn't cost me a dime to delete comments that don't fall in line with my point of view. This item, for example, had 131 comments before I weeded out the donkey talk.
^^^^^^^^^ everything that is wrong with this site^^^^^^^^^^^^
Donkey talk? I know some of the conversation can be complete garbage from uninformed simpletons. But I don't think certain people should be throwing out insults about the trash that is spewed on this site.
Actually I am done reading your columns Brwnlee. The fact is you have turned pportions of this site in to your own personal propaganda machine. Quite sad as it used to offer an unbiased informed opinion of people who could accept the fact that their opinion is exactly that an opinion and not absolute truth.
Simon, you are truly simple.
You don't know the first thing about what is wrong or right with this site. If you did (did I mention you don't?) you'd know -- without me using tildes or HAR-HAR-HAR I'M MAKING A JOKE HERE written out in caps to dumb it down -- that comment 103 was me poking fun at MYSELF and that I get an extra 50 cents per comment.
Your outrage, then, is worth $1.
@Mitch
I obviously wasn't privy to inside knowledge at the time but, from what I remember, it was more likely that he would've sat out waiting for a trade rather than play. Further to that, I'm sure they wanted to avoid a whole "Pronger circus" during the season at all cots. Not much point in keeping a discontent player on the team - little own in the dressing room.
I certainly concede Lowe maybe could've done better in the Pronger deal. Obviouly didn't work out as planned (ideally, Lupul was a point/game player here and not in T.O.) but my original point was that I think Lowe did better than getting the "absolute worst possible return" as you feel he did given how all the pieces have played out. Hell, I would've been happy with Eberle alone for Pronger if it had come to that. I jut think, given the situation of the public request for trade, there was no way any GM would've been able to obtain full value in the form of a "current" superstar and, all thing considered, it could've been much worse.
Jones still suffers by the possession metrics, but go ahead and only sample the information that flatters him. Jones is shooting above 16% right now and it continues to regress, he'll finish with about 30 points this season(which is good for him).
Jones also benefits from a lot of ice-time, which is the result of being an average player on a bad team, would Jones get those totals playing 5 mins less a game? Unlikely
You ignore necessary information and only view the positive aspects of an other wise average player. You call yourself an informed member of the media? Inform yourself then, look at advanced metrics and statistics and do not dismiss them at every corner as you always seem to do. One thing I will say about Jones is that he is improved from last year, good for him, his possession metrics were the worst on the team last year. I may have been a little harsh with my criticism of Jones by saying he is a dime-a-dozen player, but I do my homework to evaluate the player. Robin, you on the other hand dismiss my comments like I have no reason to say them when countless evidence has been brought up in the past to support my arguments. You view Jones through rose coloured glasses and then ask why, you should take me seriously? I should be asking, why do I take you seriously?
^ This. Moneypuck understands what it means to deal away a player where the team has depth to address the area of deficiency.
@OilLeak
"I may have been a little harsh with my criticism of Jones by saying he is a dime-a-dozen player . . ."
Which is the specific point I addressed. Dime a dozen player? Not a chance. You overstated, by a lot, and I called you on it. Stop sulking.
If you don't see a solid third or fourth line player in Jones, then you're spending too much time looking at the numbers and not enough time actually watching him play. Jones is a solid player who understands his role and plays it well. You could not possibly be more dismissive (and wrong in this case) than by marginalizing a player with the characterization "dime a dozen."
I did not over state by a lot, he is AVERAGE on his best nights. I watch the player, I like the guy, however his value is higher right now than it will ever be and if a package needs to include Jones to get a defenseman, you do it, end of story.
Sulking? No sulking here, you overvalue Jones, because he "HUSTLES". Here is where where I confirm your bias on Jones, if given the option to retain Hemsky or Jones, who do you keep?
I await your response.
I keep both if I can.
If I have to move one, I move the guy who gets me the best return in an area of need, either alone or as part of a package. That's after I get a read if Hemsky wants to re-sign here. Even if he does, I might moved him, depending on the return.
Confirm my bias? I overvalue Jones because he hustles? Yes, I'm happy as long as a guy looks like he's trying hard, regardless of results. I don't like skilled guys unless they grunt and sweat and bleed like the hard workers do. I'm easily fooled by "try."
You've stepped away from Jones being a dime a dozen player. You remain dead wrong on that. That's the "end of story."
The changes needed to the Oilers organization are far deeper than a quick trade or two. We are stating to develop a long term culture where we rationalize, make excuses, and dream. In my opinion more fundamental and deep organizational changes are required.
When did it become so acceptable to fail, and why do so many continue to rationalize under-performance. Our player spend is in the top half of the league. Winnipeg and Ottawa both spend almost 10 million less than the Oilers. Winners in this league never accept not making the playoffs. Losers make excuses and rationalize even when the playoffs are a distant dream. We are rapidly approaching the third season as the worst team in the NHL. How many teams have managed to accomplish this feat historically?
In business terms we are completely under performing the market in all respects but one. The FANS. As Canadians we continue to support this team, fill the building, buy the expensive beer, etc. all the while making excuses for under-performance at every level but one (our support) - which given our love of this game in Edmonton they will likely continue to take for granted.
It is becoming increasing clear the Oilers have numerous issues. I suspect there are too many 'buddies' inside the organization unwilling to make the hard decisions that might feel like firing a beer buddy. Tough. This is a performance based business. If the Oilers were playing in most of the US markets, based on our current performance, we would be in deep trouble. The building would be empty. The sponsors would be gone. The loses would be growing. Lucky the Oilers are in Edmonton.
We are a Canadian team with loyal fans and a great history. It is time for D Katz to show us why he bought this team and define a new culture where winning is expected. Where under-performance is not acceptable. Where the fans are not taken for granted. And yes, he might need to fire some friends. Get on with it. The worst team in the NHL for 2 going on 3 seasons! Never as an Oiler should this be acceptable. Never.
The good news is that we have managed to collect some exciting new players through the draft as a result of our abysmal performance in the past. Guys like Hall, Eberle, RNH are all winners - but they will not stay here long term if we continue to lose. They have won their entire careers. Individually these players are winners. Ask yourself if these 3 will be Oilers down the road if we continue to under-perform as an organization. Not a chance. They will eventually go find a winning team.
After 25 years as a loyal FAN I have witnessed the good, the bad, and the ugly as an Oiler. However, my biggest disappointment is the current level of rationalization, excuses, etc. which continue to come from the organization. Which leader (coach, GM, president) has had the courage to face the media and truly take responsibility for this mess. Admit we are under-performing as an organization.
I hope they STOP taking us for granted. PLEASE. If nothing else someone needs to step up and take ownership for the mess. We have not be injured for the past 3 years and on 'paper' we are certainly not the 'worst' in the NHL. We need to stop with the excuses and never ending rationalizations. We need to make the deep fundamental changes. PLEASE D. Katz. Finally make your mark on this team. Clean house.