Stay the Course

Jason Strudwick
January 31 2012 10:05PM

 

 

When the rumor mill spit out last week that Steve Tambellini was going to get a contract extension it set off a lot of debate. Should he be extended or not? Does he deserve it? Should Tom Renney be extended as well?

I believe that both Tom Renney and Steve Tambellini should remain in their positions next season. I have been a part of organizations that change coaches and/or GM's frequently. It does not work. Bringing in a new philosophy would mean a change of course for the team.

This could mean a new approach to drafting and free agent signing. It could set the team back at a important time in the rebuilding process. Each GM has a vision of the team he would like to ice. Having a coach that can implement a system that will mesh with the types of players the GM acquires is very important.

Before the lockout I was playing with the Chicago Blackhawks. Mike Smith was the GM and the coach was Brian Sutter.

Talk About a Mismatch

Mike favored european players, specifically Russian so he was always adding that type of player for a coach who believed in meat and potatoes hockey. Telling a Russian skilled forward to dump it in and run someone over didn't work. The team never had a chance at success with that combination.

I believe that Tambellini and Renney are on the same page. The Buffalo Sabres are a great example of a GM and coach duo that works and has brought a lot of stability to an organization that has had reasons not to be (ownership issues). Darcy Regier and Lindy Ruff are very good and respected throughout the league.

Before the season, many people expected the Sabres to be near the top of the eastern conference. With all the big signings and trades they did in the off season it was a reasonable expectation. However it has not been a great year for the Sabres. Injuries to key players have killed their record. Now people are demanding changes to the management and coaching positions.

Does this story sound familiar? I think it is near impossible to judge how good a team the Oilers are when top players are out for extended periods. Take a look at the D-man injuries to Whitney and Barker. It put to much pressure of the D-corps. They are both twenty minute guys and you can't replace that for months. Throw in Gilbert's injury and that is three of your top four D-men out.

The consecutive seasons with high man games lost are what concern me. Yes, many of the injuries have been flukes but this has been happening for three or four years now. Is that really bad luck or is it a pattern that has developed? I think more rest days would reduce some of those fluky injuries. Now is the not the time to make radical changes. Stay the course and say your prayers that the injury bug finally moves on to another team next year. A healthy team for 82 games would be a nice change and improve the teams record.

Way easier

 

Last night I scored an empty net goal. The first of my career. I thought back door tap-ins were easy but without the goalie between the pipes my chance of goal scoring success goes up at least a few points!

5cf6b487166aced0cd781e41bfef915e
Jason hosts the Jason Strudwick show from 9pm to 12am, weeknights on the team 1260. He is an instructor at Mount Carmel Hockey Academy and loves working with the kids. Having played over 650 games in the NHL, Jason has some great stories and unique takes on life in the NHL. He loves Slurpees and Blizzards. Dislikes baggy clothes and close talkers.
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#51 Clyde Frog
February 01 2012, 10:44AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

To be fair, the guy you are talking about was Rickithebear, and his golden ratio isnt any kind of accepted "Advanced Stat". It's BS plain and simple.

That said, all advanced stats are open to subjective analysis. So I completely agree with you on the wild speculations.

Its not even subjective analysis though.

Stats starts in the selection of sample data, variables of interest then testing them to ensure they reflect what is currently happening in the population. It should be measurable and they should be able to explain the variability in their samples as compared to the population.

Then you select the variables of interest and measurements, perform further testing to see how these variables react within the sample versus the population and adjust/delete variables based on performance again.

Once that is done, you can start modeling for your sample, look at supporting numbers and utilize tools like ANOVA and regression to build an understanding of how these variables interact with each other within the sample. Again understanding your relation to the population.

What happens with "advanced" stats in hockey is they make a ratio. Look at the top players in the league for whatever year they want, compare that ratio with whatever team/players they are looking at, then make predictions based off of the difference.

If things change they just reinterpret the impact based on the historical evidence never being able to articulate how those numbers reflected anything in the population originally.

The more I see these numbers use, the more I feel for statisticians who would cry to find their fields destroyed so comprehensively by people who read a text book once.

The Advanced Statisticians of Hockey seem to be little more than interpretive fortune tellers, with a mild interest in grade 6 math....

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#52 Voltron
February 01 2012, 10:51AM
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You should post more often strudy!! I enjoy your words of wisdom!

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#53 Dman09
February 01 2012, 11:02AM
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@Sloppy Joe

My issue is not with re-signing Hemsky or Sutton. I like both of them and I feel they should stay if the price is right. My issue is the fact of not doing anything. There are still pieces that don't fit into the future of the team than can be moved, I would argue that Peckham, Bulin, Chorney are not part of the future and can be moved. I would have plante there as well at the start of the season but he has shown improvement and is still young so I would hold off and see what happens. Barker shouldn't be re-signed either unless its a 2way contract but even then I think we have better options.

I'm really up in the air with Gagner, I really like him but with the current structure of the team and if they re-sign hemsky I don't see him being better than a third liner if we actually want to compete. With hemsky signed they need bigger bodies in the top 6 to be competitive.

Regardless, there is no way you should be sitting still with a lotto team expecting them to get better with no influence. Three major things this team needs is a big body top2 center, and top 2 Dman, and a goalie. I don't think the first two are possible but a goalie maybe had from Van for the right price.

Peckham, Gagner, and a pick for Schneider and Raymond. then find someone to take Bulin even if its a 4th rounder. Not sure I'm a big fan of this trade but you get what I'm saying.

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#54 TigerUnderGlass
February 01 2012, 11:07AM
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I read the part where Barker is one of the best players on the team and I haven't been able to stop laughing since. While I'm not sure what the rest of the article said, I enjoyed it immensely.

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#55 Dman09
February 01 2012, 11:10AM
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TigerUnderGlass wrote:

I read the part where Barker is one of the best players on the team and I haven't been able to stop laughing since. While I'm not sure what the rest of the article said, I enjoyed it immensely.

Ya tell me about it. His stats I believe were worse than Peckham's before he got injured and he was playing third pairing mins. No way this guys is worth re-signing unless its a two way deal.

Worst Dman on a lotto team = AHL player not NHL

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#56 simon says
February 01 2012, 11:13AM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

Couldnt disagree with you more on this one Jason. The Rebuild was announced halfway through a season in which no Rebuild was ever intended. This season he made it absolutely clear that his goal was to play meaningful games in March. It isnt going to happen, the Oilers sit 29th in the League. Tambellini is on Coach 3 in 4 years. Pat Quinn, his first hire as a coach, lasted a single year before being shuffled away.

Then there's the personnel choices. From Patty O'Sullivan to Khabibulin to Cam Barker, there have been way too many downgrades in talent and effectiveness.

I recognize freak injuries happen and that affects a team's ability to compete, but teams built around injury prone players, or worse, players who are miscast in their roles (Barker, Horcoff top 6) are fundamentally flawed.

In 4 years what has Tambellini shown that suggests he is capable of making good decisions that dont immediately need corrective steps? He couldnt build a playoff contender early in his tenure. He couldnt hire a coach that fit the team's needs. He couldnt take a bottom feeding team and add enough parts to compete again for a playoff spot.

3 stated goals, 3 colossal failure. Player moves can be a gamble. Nobody thought Belanger would be this useless in the offensive zone. It happens. But failing to achieve, or even coming close, on over-arching goals for the Franchise has to be damning to a GM. Those should not be swept under the rug and forgotten.

The rebuild was announced half way through a season that the Oilers were setting a record for man games lost.

What exactly is Khabby a down grade from? The stellar season that Roloson is having? I sure wish we signed him to that 3.5 mil contract instead of Khabby. Besides it's not like we aren't going to need a veteran goalie next year. Dubnyk is not ready to play 60+ games yet.

Now if you really want to turn a bottom feeder in to a team that would contend for a playoff spot I suggest you go over to Flames Nation. That team has a bright future of 11th to 7th place finishes.

The Oilers injuries have been a factor. For 3 consecutive seasons now the Oilers have been losing their best players. That obviously has to be studied and addressed to find the root cause. Maybe it's just bad luck. I know you will say that ST failed to provide depth and it's his fault. I would argue that to a point. Look at the Penguins. Arguably the best and deepest teams in the east WHEN HEALTHY! They were out of the playoffs 10 games ago until Malkin started playing like he's possessed and has carried that team in to a playoff position. Do you blame the GM and call for his head halfway through the season? When 3 of their top 4 players were injured? That does not make sense. Now have the Oilers injuries been any less important to them?

I don't think so.

So changing a contending team in to a team challenging for a playoff spot is three major injuries away. Just like changing a team challenging for a playoff spot to a team in a lottery pick situation.

Now some of you will say I am drinking the Kool-Aid. Which maybe I am. But the way I see it the Oilers are much improved from last year. I could say it's my opinion but let's look at the facts:

1) The PP is lights out 1st at home and 3rd overall or so they said on last nights broadcast

2) The PK is much improved and sitting somewhere in the middle of the pack

3) The defense is also improved. Yes it is. Last year they were 29th in GA. This year they are 20th. Allowing 8 less goals than the deep NHL caliber defense of the Toronto Maple Laughs.

4) The offence has improved from 27th last year to 22nd this year.

So despite the fumbling of ST (according to you) and despite the fact that they have again faced injuries to their best players (fact) they have improved in many of the key areas that translate in to wins.

So you call it colossal failures. I see an improved team. If this trend continues, an average increase of 7 spots in the GF and GA in the league. That would put us into the top 10 in 3 years and top 3 in 4 years. That would be right on track with what ST said to expect. The wins will come. If the team continues to improve in the areas it has it is inevitable.

~But seriously, this GM sucks and has failed miserably to help this team in any way ~

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#57 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
February 01 2012, 11:15AM
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The Talk about a mismatch image...

Everyone comes with a little baggage. It's good to see she found someone to help unpack hers.

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#58 aeiouY
February 01 2012, 11:18AM
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sign hemsky

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#59 Archaeologuy
February 01 2012, 11:22AM
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@simon says

I dont even know how to respond to that except to say that I think you wouldnt change your opinion no matter what was presented to you.

The best thing the Oilers did was hire Steve Tambellini. Without him we could not possibly have acquired Hall and Hopkins. Now it's time to switch focus and switch GMs.

If there was no prize for being totally miserable, what positives have the Oilers gained under Tambi?

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#60 Dman09
February 01 2012, 11:22AM
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@simon says

You could also say that the goaltending is resposible for the 8 GA difference from last season. You know since Bulin had that hot stretch and let 1 or fewer goals a game at the beginning of the season instead of the 7 or 8 per game stretch he did last season.

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#61 Jamie
February 01 2012, 11:39AM
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@simon says

"3) The defense is also improved. Yes it is. Last year they were 29th in GA. This year they are 20th. Allowing 8 less goals than the deep NHL caliber defense of the Toronto Maple Laughs."

Ha...HAAAAA.... thanks for that laugh. The D is improved. Haaaaa. That statement gives weight to your previous comment:

"Now some of you will say I am drinking the Kool-Aid. Which maybe I am."

Funny stuff.

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#62 The Towel Boy
February 01 2012, 11:45AM
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Always nice to hear a player's perspective on the management side of things.

Three thumbs up!

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#63 simon says
February 01 2012, 11:56AM
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Arch

What you have presented is a rant that ST has done nothing to improve this team. Which is wrong. Last summer between trades and UFA signings "Mr.Dithers" was one of the most active GM's in the NHL. That's a fact.

The positives are already laid out in my previous post. I won't apologize if it was over your head.

Dman

Are you one of the same people saying sign Roloson to a multi year deal? It's very convienent to point to one thing or player and say that's why. You seem to forget that hockey is a team game. When you have half you d turn over in a summer and as many injuries as they have had it becomes an accumulation of things not one player.

Jamie

The numbers are fact. Your opinion is not.

Everyone has an oninion. Mine happens to be based on the results I have seen and the numbers that back it up. The Oilers have improved in just about every aspect and without the injuries it is reasonable to expect them to be in a different position than they are now.

You can blame ST for areas that he failed. But if your not willing to give him any props for what he has done right you have absolutly zero credibility in my opinion

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#64 Lochenzo
February 01 2012, 11:59AM
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Thanks Strudders! Patience!!! At the outset of the year, I was torn. I did want to see more winning hockey but at the same time, but I also knew this year's entry draft boasts depth and talent. Need a dynamic forward - Yakupov. Need a big, 1st line forward - Grigorenko. Need a slick puck moving Dman - Murray. Then there's Forsberg, Dumba, Reinhart, etc. Great year for a team looking to fill a specific need.

This club needs a stud Dman and a top 6 forward with some size and crash to his game. We can fill one of these needs with our 1st pick. Filling the second comes down to hard work. Developing one of our current prospects (Hartikainen? Petry? etc). Finding a gem in the rough with a later pick (Think Lidstrom, Duncan Keith, or Lucic, all 2nd round selections). Or trade or sign (Landing Ryan Suter and signing him to an extension would get me pretty excited).

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#65 TigerUnderGlass
February 01 2012, 12:03PM
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@simon says

What you have presented is a rant that ST has done nothing to improve this team. Which is wrong. Last summer between trades and UFA signings "Mr.Dithers" was one of the most active GM's in the NHL. That's a fact.

Active is not the same thing as improving.

The defense is also improved. Yes it is. Last year they were 29th in GA. This year they are 20th. Allowing 8 less goals than the deep NHL caliber defense of the Toronto Maple Laughs.

Yet they are giving up shots and chances at approximately the same rate as last year. Could the difference possibly be improved goaltending? The difference in goals allowed is entirely explained by the improvement in sv%.

I have much more to say about your so called improvements, but I'm told I have a client waiting, so I'll be back shortly.

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#66 Romulus' Apotheosis
February 01 2012, 12:16PM
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Clyde Frog wrote:

/rant on

Can we stop calling it "advanced stats" and start calling it what it is...

Ratio's done and then minimal regression analysis applied.

This basic measurement is then posted where people make wild predictions and retroactively explain their data based on the sample group given and fit the explanation to the numbers...

Anyone remember the advanced statistician who said RNH would be terrible simply based off his goals to assist ratio....?

Stats works for Baseball because you can isolate each instance into a single interaction between the ball and the player. This is not even close to true for Hockey, so many unfactorable variables.

/rant off

And I'm out! kkthxbbqbai!

I guess that was intended for me...? (since I brought up adv. stats. RE: Hemsky)??

I'm happy to defer to your math skills and let you fight this out with others.

I was only using them to supplement my point anyway: Hemsky has (predictably I would say) looked a lot better as the season moves along and he becomes more comfortable with his shoulder. If the corsi, qualcomp etc. match what I see by eye then I feel like I'm not just making things up... but who knows maybe I'm making everything up.., maybe you're just that part of my sub-consciousness that exists to remind me that I failed grade 6 math.

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#67 Simon says
February 01 2012, 12:20PM
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They actually have allowed 24 fewer goals than Tampa who sits 29th in GA. Saying GAA is based strictly on the goaltenders performance is both ignorant and irresponsible. As well saying that one scoring chance is equal to any other scoring chance. Or that one shot is equal to another.

You can twist as many stats as you want to back up your opinion Tiger. But if you are saying that the quality of the team in front of them has nothing to do with goaltenders stats then I am finished conversing with you.

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#68 Archaeologuy
February 01 2012, 12:27PM
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@simon says

Ok, let's get this clear. My response to you basically said, we are probably going to have to agree to disagree. Nowhere in there did I make a snide remark about you not being bright enough to understand. But since the gloves are apparently off now, I will preface this by saying that you are the kind of fan that has allowed this management group to continue to make mistake after mistake without consequence.

What is Khabby a downgrade from? A starting Goalie in the NHL. That is what Khabibulin is a downgrade from. The Choice was not Khabi or Roli. It was Khabi and any other Goalie available. We got teathered to an aging goalie with chronic injury history and a failing save percentage. All of these things were known and despite them he was given a contract AT LEAST 1 year too long and 1 million too high. He cant stop the Puck with #1 NHL Goalie regularity. What good is a veteran goalie if he cant stop the puck?

Activity on the deadline and on FA day does not signify anything positive. The teams that make the most moves are the teams with the most holes. Check out how much Vancouver changes its team on the 1st and the trade deadline. Good teams dont need to massively alter their rosters every season.

"Now if you really want to turn a bottom feeder in to a team that would contend for a playoff spot I suggest you go over to Flames Nation." Do you not recognize that the very same GM you are poorly defending is the one who wanted to contend for the Playoffs? Wake up, Simple Simon, you are blasting me for holding a GM to the standard by which he himself set.

The Defense is an absolute joke. There was no depth in August and it has shown since November. This issue was brought up over and over again before the season even started by the MSM and Bloggers. The writing was on the wall. This season the Oilers have used untested players in Key roles on the backend to obvious results. Losses, Simone. Losses. And lots of them. 5 Defensemen have suited up with less than a year's NHL experience. Potter and Petry have significant roles on a team that needs much more experience on the back end. To think this group is better in any way than previous is a farce. Lets not forget that Tambi's big D acquisition, Whitney is now playing at 80%, possibly forever, because of a foot condition known to Robin Brownlee from before Whitney was even an Oiler. Defending that mess back there is a joke in poor taste.

Offense certainly has improved. You can place that squarely on Tambellini to be sure. His teams have been so bad that they finished dead last twice in a row, allowing us to pick up PowerPlay wizards like Hall and RNH. Without them setting up and scoring on the PP we wouldnt have a single thing on those units that wasnt already there before Tambellini arrived. Oh, and I'm sure Stu MacGregor receives no credit for securing Eberle and Tom Renney had nothing to do with the PK or the PP either. All Tambi.

I dont take kindly to being told something might be over my head, especially from somebody so obviously either a professional jock sniffer or certifiably insane. But after your response I think it's pretty easy to laugh off, because you are so out of touch with reality that you actually think it's the other people in the room that dont understand.

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#69 Yourmomthinksimhot
February 01 2012, 12:29PM
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WOW............. It blows my mind when people try to defend Tambellini on here.

Your right, he is improving... three years to go from 30th to 29th at this rate with Tambo we'll be first in our 90th year of the "rebuild". YAY!! Im so happy right now!!

Im all for staying the course but we are not in year 2 of the rebuild, maybe officially but any team that drafts in the top 10, 4(soon to be 5) out of 5(soon to be 6) years was actually rebuilding 5 years ago, when we drafted Gagner. The organization was just so ignorant towards the fans, basically treating us like we're idiots, that finally they had to admit that they were rebuilding. Honestly everybody knew we were rebuilding, we still are rebuilding so why sign a couple 3rd/4th liners and 3rd pairing dman and try to sell the fans on us being a playoff team? Fans are sick of the lying, Im frustrated with Tambo not only because of his terrible moves but also because of the lies and lack of accountability.

Alls I know is looking forward to the top draft pick playing on your team in early December is getting old.

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#70 Simon says
February 01 2012, 12:29PM
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I meant sv% not GAA

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#71 Lochenzo
February 01 2012, 12:39PM
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I hope that last night was an indication that Renney will play Dubie more down the stretch. I like Dubie's angles and he is getting better at scrambling and showing a higher compete leve. He still needs to work on finding pucks through traffic and reading plays a little quicker. But comes with playing games. I'd like to see a lot more of him.

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#72 Clyde Frog
February 01 2012, 12:49PM
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@Romulus' Apotheosis

It wasn't really directed at you specifically, just bored between class and frustrated at how many stats get tossed around as ways to evaluate people without doing any underlying work to qualify what they say.

Certain writers here are especially bad at this, but honestly it was a general rant over me kicking over your garbage can.

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#73 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
February 01 2012, 12:55PM
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Lochenzo wrote:

I hope that last night was an indication that Renney will play Dubie more down the stretch. I like Dubie's angles and he is getting better at scrambling and showing a higher compete leve. He still needs to work on finding pucks through traffic and reading plays a little quicker. But comes with playing games. I'd like to see a lot more of him.

It's easier to stop the puck when expectations are at an alltime low. The Oilers have been playing meaningless games for a month already. Where was this Dubnyk 3 months ago when the Oilers weren't out of it yet?

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#74 Sloppy Joe
February 01 2012, 01:06PM
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@ Dman09

Yeah - I get what you're saying and I agree with you on most points. I interpreted your previous post to mean (aside from your main point) that you didn't like the idea of re-signing either Hemsky or Sutton.

I agree with you on the issue of forwards with size, but I would tread lightly with Gagner. He's still so young. People focus on his # of NHL games played, but overlook that his development was ill-served by being thrown into the deep end too soon. He's the kind of guy you trade, and then turns out to be Miro Satan.

I'm not big on the oil trading for a goalie at this stage. There have been decent UFA goalies at a reasonable price in recent years. Problem is Tambo handcuffed us with the Bulin contract, so it didn't make sense to try to sign them (e.g. Vokoun this summer).

But I guess that's just more ammo for your aguments about Tambo.

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#75 simon says
February 01 2012, 01:07PM
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Arch,    Your lost and running in circles.   You seem to think that every team can be managed in the exact same way. Coming out of the lock out those same bloggers called the Vancouver Canucks an AHL team with an All Star Goalie. All players are unproven until they play. Was it an ideal situation for the Oilers? No, that is clear.   Second we didn't get tethered to an aging goalie. It was called signing a transition player. What did we get? A 4 time allstar, Olympic gold medal winner and Stanley cup champion who by all accounts has been a good teacher for Dubnyk. You also seem to forget as a failing team in the most northern climate we will pay a million too much and a year too long for almost any UFA. Besides he is over 3 years younger and has far more accolades than Roloson who signed for .25 million less and only one less year.   As for you standards from going from a bottom feeder to a playoff contender. What would you have ST do? Sure he could have made the deals to all but ensure we make the playoffs. That also would have gone against what he has stated he is trying to accomplish by building a contender rather than acquiring one like Burke is attempting. Do you know the difference?    The defense is the biggest glaring weakness that the Oilers have. You will get no argument from me. It has been exposed and taken advantage of at many times this year. But unlike many people on this site, I do not agree that top 4 defensemen can be obtained by trading our junk, garbage and scraps.   The power play has actually gotten better without RNH. Will that continue? No, he has been the single biggest factor. But the faceoff wins by Belanger, the net presences of Smyth, (oh wait ST gets no credit for that, it literally fell in his lap~) Jones and Eager has nothing to do with that. Just like the fact that having guys like Hordichuk, Sutton and Eager have done nothing to improve the amount of power plays they get.   If you can't handle someone poking holes in your narrow minded and weak rant then that's your problem not mine. I suggest you stop posting on the internet.   Now if Katz or Klowe could see your enlightened posts I am sure you would be a close Oiler advisor in no time!

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#76 Oilcan
February 01 2012, 01:22PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

To be fair, the guy you are talking about was Rickithebear, and his golden ratio isnt any kind of accepted "Advanced Stat". It's BS plain and simple.

That said, all advanced stats are open to subjective analysis. So I completely agree with you on the wild speculations.

Haha good ol' rickithebear, I wonder what he changed his name too because he doesn't come on here as that tag anymore...neither would I if I made up a ratio that said RNH would be junk and be a bust and claimed it was foolproof...how many points did he have before he went out?

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#77 Yourmomthinksimhot
February 01 2012, 01:23PM
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simon says wrote:

Arch,    Your lost and running in circles.   You seem to think that every team can be managed in the exact same way. Coming out of the lock out those same bloggers called the Vancouver Canucks an AHL team with an All Star Goalie. All players are unproven until they play. Was it an ideal situation for the Oilers? No, that is clear.   Second we didn't get tethered to an aging goalie. It was called signing a transition player. What did we get? A 4 time allstar, Olympic gold medal winner and Stanley cup champion who by all accounts has been a good teacher for Dubnyk. You also seem to forget as a failing team in the most northern climate we will pay a million too much and a year too long for almost any UFA. Besides he is over 3 years younger and has far more accolades than Roloson who signed for .25 million less and only one less year.   As for you standards from going from a bottom feeder to a playoff contender. What would you have ST do? Sure he could have made the deals to all but ensure we make the playoffs. That also would have gone against what he has stated he is trying to accomplish by building a contender rather than acquiring one like Burke is attempting. Do you know the difference?    The defense is the biggest glaring weakness that the Oilers have. You will get no argument from me. It has been exposed and taken advantage of at many times this year. But unlike many people on this site, I do not agree that top 4 defensemen can be obtained by trading our junk, garbage and scraps.   The power play has actually gotten better without RNH. Will that continue? No, he has been the single biggest factor. But the faceoff wins by Belanger, the net presences of Smyth, (oh wait ST gets no credit for that, it literally fell in his lap~) Jones and Eager has nothing to do with that. Just like the fact that having guys like Hordichuk, Sutton and Eager have done nothing to improve the amount of power plays they get.   If you can't handle someone poking holes in your narrow minded and weak rant then that's your problem not mine. I suggest you stop posting on the internet.   Now if Katz or Klowe could see your enlightened posts I am sure you would be a close Oiler advisor in no time!

Incase you're unsure, Arch isn't the only one disagreeing with you. He is just the only one who seems to be WASTING his time with valid arguments and great points, that you seem to not understand.

He is not going in circles, he has an opinion that is being strongly backed, yours isn't.

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#78 simon says
February 01 2012, 01:36PM
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Birds of a feather flock together. It can be real easy to agree with the populace rather than think objectively for yoursel have fun with that. I'm out.

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#79 Yourmomthinksimhot
February 01 2012, 01:41PM
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@simon says

Sorry, next time I'll try not to agree with someone when I find their opinion completely right and lacking of any further input........

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#80 Dave Lumley
February 01 2012, 01:54PM
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@Archaeologuy

Arch, usually your opinions are well thought out but in this case SIMON is bang on. At times, you go over the top when touching on emotional soft spots like your distain for Tambellini or your like of Gagner.

Simon is right on with his analysis. One judgement used as a critque of Tambellini is his prediction that the Oilers should be competing for a play off spot. Just as Jason Strudwick states, a big mess of key injuries will seriously affect your team performance. If, which is not a major stretch, the Oil had 5 more wins through this injury bug, then we would be exactly where Tambellni predicted we would be, just out of the playoffs and playing meaningful games.

Tambellini has acted, defence is improved over last year, and team performance in key areas such as the PP and PK have improved. Perfect? Of course not! But certainly in a positive direction.

What will finally justify Simon thinking as right, is that Katz, with some solid advise will reup Tambellini. Remember, Katz probably has a thick binder outlining Tambellinis plan sitting on his desk and its probably right on schedule. Like it or not.

We do not have the depth of Detroit and that is why we are rebuilding. To think that can be done in a year or two is seriously naive.

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#81 TigerUnderGlass
February 01 2012, 02:00PM
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Simon says wrote:

They actually have allowed 24 fewer goals than Tampa who sits 29th in GA. Saying GAA is based strictly on the goaltenders performance is both ignorant and irresponsible. As well saying that one scoring chance is equal to any other scoring chance. Or that one shot is equal to another.

You can twist as many stats as you want to back up your opinion Tiger. But if you are saying that the quality of the team in front of them has nothing to do with goaltenders stats then I am finished conversing with you.

Save percentage accounts for 18 goals less given up just to this point in the season. If the team is giving up approximately the same number of scoring chances as least year how else do you account for this difference? Do you understand what a scoring chance is?

What is the more likely explanation - that the team has improved in their ability to stop goals without lowering the number for chances against or that the goalies are having a mildly better season?

Ignorant and irresponsible? Ignorance is making claims with NOTHING to support them. I'm twisting nothing. You, on the other hand, are grasping at straws to defend a GM who has yet to display a reasonable level of competence.

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#82 Dave Lumley
February 01 2012, 02:00PM
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Yourmomthinksimhot wrote:

Incase you're unsure, Arch isn't the only one disagreeing with you. He is just the only one who seems to be WASTING his time with valid arguments and great points, that you seem to not understand.

He is not going in circles, he has an opinion that is being strongly backed, yours isn't.

Hey, read the article. Strudwick seems to agree with Simon - STAY THE COURSE!!!

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#83 Archaeologuy
February 01 2012, 02:11PM
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@Dave Lumley

"We do not have the depth of Detroit and that is why we are rebuilding. To think that can be done in a year or two is seriously naive."

Why this has been so hard to understand is beyond me. Let's make this clear. I am not the delusional one who couldn't see past the lack of organizational depth and thought we could turn it around in 2 years.

Those expectations were set by the very guy you are defending. Steven Q. Tambellini. Meaningful games in March.

I just want to hold him accountable for failing to meet his goals.

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#84 TigerUnderGlass
February 01 2012, 02:12PM
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@Dave Lumley

Simon is right on with his analysis

What analysis? He hasn't done any.

Tambellini has acted,

How is this a positive?

defence is improved over last year,

No it hasn't. Otherwise they would be giving up less chances.

What will finally justify Simon thinking as right, is that Katz, with some solid advise will reup Tambellini. Remember, Katz probably has a thick binder outlining Tambellinis plan sitting on his desk and its probably right on schedule. Like it or not.

I don't know where to start with this bit of comedy gold. I can't decide which is funnier, "solid advise," or "Tambellini's plan." The binder part is good too.

Either way, props for claiming that an extension is somehow evidence of his quality. I haven't laughed so hard since earlier in the thread.

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#85 Yourmomthinksimhot
February 01 2012, 02:18PM
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Dave Lumley wrote:

Arch, usually your opinions are well thought out but in this case SIMON is bang on. At times, you go over the top when touching on emotional soft spots like your distain for Tambellini or your like of Gagner.

Simon is right on with his analysis. One judgement used as a critque of Tambellini is his prediction that the Oilers should be competing for a play off spot. Just as Jason Strudwick states, a big mess of key injuries will seriously affect your team performance. If, which is not a major stretch, the Oil had 5 more wins through this injury bug, then we would be exactly where Tambellni predicted we would be, just out of the playoffs and playing meaningful games.

Tambellini has acted, defence is improved over last year, and team performance in key areas such as the PP and PK have improved. Perfect? Of course not! But certainly in a positive direction.

What will finally justify Simon thinking as right, is that Katz, with some solid advise will reup Tambellini. Remember, Katz probably has a thick binder outlining Tambellinis plan sitting on his desk and its probably right on schedule. Like it or not.

We do not have the depth of Detroit and that is why we are rebuilding. To think that can be done in a year or two is seriously naive.

When you drafted 3 players in the first round, including 6th overall in 2007, and in the top ten every year excluding one since, you've been rebuilding for more than 2 years......

That's 4 out of 5 years of drafting in the top ten, including a top ten talent the one year you didnt draft top ten.

Arch is right, when I myself as a fan with no scouting background can plainly see that the defense and goaltending are questionable, then how does the GM of an NHL team come out and say this team will compete for the playoffs?

We in fact have more depth than Detroit because of our high drafting, the difference is Detroit's depth is more NHL ready because unlike us they develop EVERY one of their prospects. They dont rush prospects like us.

Give me one good reason why Lander is not in the AHL. Would a team like Detroit put him in the NHL? No, surely we could've replaced Lander in the lineup with a veteran signing (or Brule). But Tambo knows everything apparently.

He has done a good job of proving that he is anything but competent of building a playoff team.

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#86 Chris
February 01 2012, 02:24PM
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@Archaeologuy

ZING!

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#87 Oiltimer
February 01 2012, 02:41PM
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Funny how guys that mostly sit and watch seem to know mor than the ones who are there doing...

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#88 The poster formerly known as Koolaid drinker #33
February 01 2012, 02:44PM
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@simon says

Cheers dude! This round's on me.

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#90 Next up, is Connor McJesus.
February 01 2012, 03:07PM
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I'm not sure Steve is taking the little nuances of the Edmonton market into consideration with his rebuild plan. If i could take a moment and visually draw a parrallel.

Steve is piloting his Oilers Hercules aircraft, his extensive rebuild plan has the cargo bay bursting at the seams. He's unaware that the landing strip available to him is only 300 yds long. He must be the only one that doesn't see the ball of flames that will insue shortly after those tires meet the runway.

He's already 2 yrs into that seven yr window he has to work with. At this current pace, his core players will start looking to go elsewhere well before this 7 yr window expires.

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#91 Dave Lumley
February 01 2012, 03:15PM
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Archaeologuy wrote:

"We do not have the depth of Detroit and that is why we are rebuilding. To think that can be done in a year or two is seriously naive."

Why this has been so hard to understand is beyond me. Let's make this clear. I am not the delusional one who couldn't see past the lack of organizational depth and thought we could turn it around in 2 years.

Those expectations were set by the very guy you are defending. Steven Q. Tambellini. Meaningful games in March.

I just want to hold him accountable for failing to meet his goals.

You are right. He set the goal and will not reach it. But as Jason Sturdwick suggests and I made note of, if we are sans the all the injuries to so many key players it is not unlikely that we would have 5 more wins and be exactly where Tambellini predicted - 2 points out of the playoffs and playing meaningful games in March.

By the way, I do not believe that you are delusional but there are certainly others that may be.

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#92 DAve Lumley
February 01 2012, 03:35PM
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Yourmomthinksimhot wrote:

When you drafted 3 players in the first round, including 6th overall in 2007, and in the top ten every year excluding one since, you've been rebuilding for more than 2 years......

That's 4 out of 5 years of drafting in the top ten, including a top ten talent the one year you didnt draft top ten.

Arch is right, when I myself as a fan with no scouting background can plainly see that the defense and goaltending are questionable, then how does the GM of an NHL team come out and say this team will compete for the playoffs?

We in fact have more depth than Detroit because of our high drafting, the difference is Detroit's depth is more NHL ready because unlike us they develop EVERY one of their prospects. They dont rush prospects like us.

Give me one good reason why Lander is not in the AHL. Would a team like Detroit put him in the NHL? No, surely we could've replaced Lander in the lineup with a veteran signing (or Brule). But Tambo knows everything apparently.

He has done a good job of proving that he is anything but competent of building a playoff team.

Many of your questions fall on Tambellinis coach, Tom Renney. Playing Lander, sending Brule down, etc.

You should check his resume. Coach of Team Canada - Silver Olympic medalist. Director of Player personnel with the Rangers, 7 or 8 years coaching in the NHL. If he wants to play Lander instead of sending him down I would defer to that.

I am not suggesting that he is incapable of making mistakes, I just would give him the benefit of the doubt.

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#93 TigerUnderGlass
February 01 2012, 03:39PM
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Dave Lumley wrote:

You are right. He set the goal and will not reach it. But as Jason Sturdwick suggests and I made note of, if we are sans the all the injuries to so many key players it is not unlikely that we would have 5 more wins and be exactly where Tambellini predicted - 2 points out of the playoffs and playing meaningful games in March.

By the way, I do not believe that you are delusional but there are certainly others that may be.

Coming into the season did you expect RNH to have the season he has had so far? Did you expect Eberle to be one of the top scorers in the league this year? On the other side was it not predictable that Whitney would not be healthy?

For the injury excuse be remotely valid it would mean that Tambellini was counting on Whitney. It would mean that Tambellini expected the years he got out of the other two. It would mean he expected a lot of things that no reasonable person should have expected.

The point is that even if there were no injuries and the team was sitting in 8th place and fighting for a playoff spot it was still an unreasonable expectation from Tambellini based on absurd presumptions.

This is the problem with Tambellini. He has demonstrated zero ability to evaluate the talent level of the team and has yet to demonstrate anything close to a coherent plan, let alone the ability to assemble a winning team.

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#94 TigerUnderGlass
February 01 2012, 03:40PM
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DAve Lumley wrote:

Many of your questions fall on Tambellinis coach, Tom Renney. Playing Lander, sending Brule down, etc.

You should check his resume. Coach of Team Canada - Silver Olympic medalist. Director of Player personnel with the Rangers, 7 or 8 years coaching in the NHL. If he wants to play Lander instead of sending him down I would defer to that.

I am not suggesting that he is incapable of making mistakes, I just would give him the benefit of the doubt.

This is not a valid argument.

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#95 michaelz
February 01 2012, 03:42PM
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"The growing parody through the league"

I knew the NHL has problems in certain markets, but it's spreading?

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#96 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
February 01 2012, 03:58PM
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simon says wrote:

Arch,    Your lost and running in circles.   You seem to think that every team can be managed in the exact same way. Coming out of the lock out those same bloggers called the Vancouver Canucks an AHL team with an All Star Goalie. All players are unproven until they play. Was it an ideal situation for the Oilers? No, that is clear.   Second we didn't get tethered to an aging goalie. It was called signing a transition player. What did we get? A 4 time allstar, Olympic gold medal winner and Stanley cup champion who by all accounts has been a good teacher for Dubnyk. You also seem to forget as a failing team in the most northern climate we will pay a million too much and a year too long for almost any UFA. Besides he is over 3 years younger and has far more accolades than Roloson who signed for .25 million less and only one less year.   As for you standards from going from a bottom feeder to a playoff contender. What would you have ST do? Sure he could have made the deals to all but ensure we make the playoffs. That also would have gone against what he has stated he is trying to accomplish by building a contender rather than acquiring one like Burke is attempting. Do you know the difference?    The defense is the biggest glaring weakness that the Oilers have. You will get no argument from me. It has been exposed and taken advantage of at many times this year. But unlike many people on this site, I do not agree that top 4 defensemen can be obtained by trading our junk, garbage and scraps.   The power play has actually gotten better without RNH. Will that continue? No, he has been the single biggest factor. But the faceoff wins by Belanger, the net presences of Smyth, (oh wait ST gets no credit for that, it literally fell in his lap~) Jones and Eager has nothing to do with that. Just like the fact that having guys like Hordichuk, Sutton and Eager have done nothing to improve the amount of power plays they get.   If you can't handle someone poking holes in your narrow minded and weak rant then that's your problem not mine. I suggest you stop posting on the internet.   Now if Katz or Klowe could see your enlightened posts I am sure you would be a close Oiler advisor in no time!

just think how epic your posts will be when you finally figure out how to use that enter button on your keyboard.

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#97 simon says
February 01 2012, 04:05PM
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Posting from my Blackberry. As a none citizen. Thanks for making such a valid point though.

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#98 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
February 01 2012, 04:17PM
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simon says wrote:

Posting from my Blackberry. As a none citizen. Thanks for making such a valid point though.

some guy around here said something i found interesting

If you can't handle someone poking holes in your narrow minded and weak rant then that's your problem not mine.

he might have been onto something after all

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#99 TigerUnderGlass
February 01 2012, 04:41PM
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I think a lot of people defending Tambellini misunderstand the issue.

Nobody is claiming that the Oilers should be close to being a playoff team. The fact that they are still bad is not precisely the problem.

The problem is that Tambellini went into this season believing they were good enough to compete for a playoff spot, and, despite some positive surprises, they are still not even close.

This complete inability to evaluate his team is why he should be fired. It isn't even the first time he went into a season believing he had a much better team than he had. Someone this clueless has no business running an NHL team....even if some people believe the fact that he happens to already hold the job presumes competence.

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#100 cableguy - 2nd Tier Fan
February 01 2012, 04:46PM
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TigerUnderGlass wrote:

I think a lot of people defending Tambellini misunderstand the issue.

Nobody is claiming that the Oilers should be close to being a playoff team. The fact that they are still bad is not precisely the problem.

The problem is that Tambellini went into this season believing they were good enough to compete for a playoff spot, and, despite some positive surprises, they are still not even close.

This complete inability to evaluate his team is why he should be fired. It isn't even the first time he went into a season believing he had a much better team than he had. Someone this clueless has no business running an NHL team....even if some people believe the fact that he happens to already hold the job presumes competence.

^this

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