THE PRICE YOU PAY

Lowetide
November 15 2012 05:12PM

 

Jeff Petry is young, has proven he can play in the NHL and be effective, and is signed to a ridiculous value contract. If the Edmonton Oilers knock on the door of another NHL team and request a stud defender, it is reasonable to assume that a defenseman of some quality would be part of the asking price. Is that Fair? What if the defenseman was Shea Weber? 

THE $7.87 MILLION DOLLAR MAN

Shea Weber is as close as we're going to get to the Rake 2.0 without finding Dr. Emmett Brown, and you could create a scenario where the big man is moved out of Nashville soon. The offer sheet fiasco had a few rough items and the Preds are a team known to make deals that involve sending away the best player in a trade. 

Shea Weber is an elite defenseman and the pricetag will be mammoth. Can the Oilers put together the package that gets him to Northern Alberta?

THE STICKER PRICE 

If the Oilers plan to make a "wow" move--and lets face it acquiring Weber would be an exceptional wow--then you have to know the pricetag would be dear. I'll guess an NHL defenseman who can play top 4D out of the gate (and doesn't cost a lot), a young forward capable of stepping in (Teemu Hartikainen), a solid defensive prospect (we'll use Martin Marincin) and a 1st or 2nd round draft pick. 

Is that fair? Too much? Bottom line, if you're going to acquire a signed Shea Weber the price will be dear. However, the payoff would be an "instant" improvement to the blue, as it might look something like this:

  1. Ladislav Smid-Shea Weber
  2. Nick Schultz-Justin Schultz
  3. Ryan Whitney-Corey Potter
  4. Theo Peckham

You may feel it looks about the same as before, and the difference in TOI from Petry to Weber is clear but not as pronounced as you might think:

  • 2011-12 at evens: Weber 20:22; Petry 17:59
  • 2011-12 on PP: Weber 3:41; Petry 1:16
  • 2011-12 on PK: Weber 2:20; Petry 2:29

The extra EV and PP time would be against the toughest opposition and the Oilers would have a veteran stud to run out there in any situation. Tough zone starts, tough opposition, the entire Pronger--save for a bit of the mean streak and Weber is no shrinking violet.

The question is this: how much improvement can the Oilers expect in the Smid-Petry pairing (an effective duo) by adding Weber and subtracting Petry. I would suggest the answer is significant--but is it enough to pull the trigger?

WOULD YOU DO IT?

Yes. Its a dear, dear price and yet Shea Weber on this team--with the young Justin Schultz behind him on the second pairing--could turn a negative into a positive in a heartbeat. 

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Its all just discussion during hockey's long rain delay. However, the Oilers do have a nice collection of assets and at some point they are going to cash them in. Shea Weber would be an outstanding candidate, but Oiler fans should be prepared to be amazed at the price tag. 

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Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.
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#1 David S
November 15 2012, 05:25PM
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I got the impression the "Wow" trade was going to happen once the Oilers were in the position to compete in the playoffs.

Until then the only Wow trade I want is MLB and Pokerstars.net tournaments for NHL. And I want it right effin' now.

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#2 Oiler Al
November 15 2012, 11:10PM
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You dont give up "WOW" players without getting a "WOW" player in return, no matter how desperate you are. Oilers in this category would be the Fab Five. Not sure you want to give up any of those guys.Petry, Hemsky, SMid are not WOW guys. They are all decent players but not in the WOW league. Pred,s need player[s] that will put bums into their seats. You sped several years in the basement to get draft picks to rebuild, and then you throw it out the window on one player... I am not sure thats smart. Webber's talent might even diminish a bit without his sidekick, Suter. When is How much, Too much?

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#3 Coppperhead
November 16 2012, 01:51AM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

This would constitute a "WOW" trade for sure, like where your head space is at LT!

If the season does go ahead, then it's my belief the Oilers are a lottery team still, and in no way shape or form does that 1st become part of any deal!

The problem with the Oilers is, they are just as weak at center as they are on defence, maybe even worse!

The trade will make the Oilers worse.

The GM of the Predators will be asking for not only Petry, but most likely Klefbom as well. You just don't give away Weber without suitable NHL replacements.

On top of that I'm sure he will be asking for Gagner or Hemsky.... possible both!

Then you can start adding a combination of Hartikinen, MPS, Pitlick, and the second and third ound draft pics.

So now that the Oilers finally get there "Stud" defensmen, while getting rid of there top prospects, they still need a second 1-B center, size in the top 6, an NHL caliber goaltender, hope to renew Smid who will also be a UFA about the time this trade goes down.

Just keep in mind I have zero faith that Tambellini can fix the rest via trade or UFA before the start of next season = lottery position again.

I would trade Gagner AND Hemsky (as much as I love him) AND Petry AND 1st AND Hartikainen for Shea Weber.

The fact is Gagner doesn't fit my idea of a 2nd line centre for this team long term (too small top 6 with him in it).

Hemsky becomes replaceable on RW once Yakupov and Eberle are tearing it up.

Petry is a good defenceman but pretty quickly Schultz / Weber would be top 2 and we can find a replacement for him.

Hartikainen could be a nice piece but we don't know how he'll turn out in the NHL long term.

1st round pick might not be that high with Weber on our back end.

4 1st round picks isn't necessarily appealing to Nashville for a few reasons: - coming from PHI they could be in the 20s for four years. - those players would be a couple years from making a difference.

For those reasons Poile would be much happier taking a deal for Weber that included actual NHLers. Petry&Hemsky/Gagner (a top 4 + a top 6) plus some future (propsects/picks) might be more than enough for him.

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#4 Spydyr
November 16 2012, 08:02AM
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Chasing the white whale does not work.

The so called wow trade scares me.The pro scouting of the Oilers is beyond weak.

The team is at least a year away from making a move in the playoffs.Now is not the time to gather mercenary players.

What about the salary cap?

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#5 Huddy's Mustache
November 17 2012, 03:20PM
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Walter Sobchak wrote:

This would constitute a "WOW" trade for sure, like where your head space is at LT!

If the season does go ahead, then it's my belief the Oilers are a lottery team still, and in no way shape or form does that 1st become part of any deal!

The problem with the Oilers is, they are just as weak at center as they are on defence, maybe even worse!

The trade will make the Oilers worse.

The GM of the Predators will be asking for not only Petry, but most likely Klefbom as well. You just don't give away Weber without suitable NHL replacements.

On top of that I'm sure he will be asking for Gagner or Hemsky.... possible both!

Then you can start adding a combination of Hartikinen, MPS, Pitlick, and the second and third ound draft pics.

So now that the Oilers finally get there "Stud" defensmen, while getting rid of there top prospects, they still need a second 1-B center, size in the top 6, an NHL caliber goaltender, hope to renew Smid who will also be a UFA about the time this trade goes down.

Just keep in mind I have zero faith that Tambellini can fix the rest via trade or UFA before the start of next season = lottery position again.

Wes you're forgetting history. I distinctly remember the last time the oil went out and got a big defenceman they almost won the cup. The oilers have been a "next year" team for 21 years now, time to move the young talent and bring in players that will win you a cup TODAY. RNH will not win you a cup TODAY, nor will Hall or Eberle win you a cup TODAY.

Most teams that rebuild go on to win a cup eventually (Hawks, Pens, etc...).

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#6 Big Perm
November 15 2012, 05:16PM
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I would do it. After fist, not second thought.

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#7 Mantastic
November 15 2012, 05:25PM
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it would be near impossible for Nashville to trade him, from the nashville point of view. they will have to pay Weber 26m in signing-bonuses until he will be available to trade, late July of next year, via current CBA offer sheet rules.

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#8 Destroyko
November 15 2012, 05:30PM
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I believe that, after matching the offer sheet, the Preds are not permitted to trade him for one year. So unless the lockout drags beyond this season, it wouldn't be the "wow" move spoken of by the enlightened.

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#9 Dodd
November 15 2012, 05:46PM
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Not sure I would support this move unless we had Cup-contending goal tending. If Dubnyk can't shoulder the load and we end up with another Khabbibulin situation, we can have all the Webers we want and still exit in the first round.

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#11 Toro
November 15 2012, 06:09PM
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Yes do what you gotta do to get Weber , I consider him one of the best defenseman in the league if not the best , make this deal happen with anyone involved other then the big 5, he is exactly what this team needs !!! But he can't be dealt till next summer I thought? So I don't think he is involved in the so called WOW move there talking about.

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#12 T__Bone88
November 15 2012, 06:12PM
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Good thing you didn't put that trade proposal on hockey future board, they would tell you that Nashville would hang up the phone unless you offered up one of the big four. But I agree if Nashville traded Weber it would be for a package like that, maybe include Gagner in there as well. Looking back at all the big ticket players traded since the lockout only Mike Richards got fair market value the rest went for futures/picks. The only team that might put in a better offer is Philadelphia.

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#13 The Soup Fascist
November 15 2012, 06:23PM
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Lowetide wrote:

I'd much rather invest in D than goaltending. The cost of replacement level goaltending isn't high most summer's, and NHL teams have won with slightly above average goaltending. Detroit has done it several times.

Your point is very true. While this is a subjective list, I would suggest that of the last 10 Stanley Cup Winners:

- Only four of ten had what I would call "proven star goaltenders", Hasek, Brodeur, Fleury and Ward ??? (I struggle with this one a bit, Quick may end up in this group, Ward may not belong)

- Seven of the ten had "stud" #1 defensemen. Pretty easy to identify these guys on all the teams except Pittsburgh in 09 (Can't call Letang / Gonchar studs), Carolina in 06 (F me, how did the Oilers not beat these guys??) and Tampa Bay in 04 (Dan Boyle, mmm?, no).

Put your money in D-men. Journeymen goalies who can win the cup under the right conditions are a dime a dozen. Osgood, Khabby, Niemi, Thomas, Giguere, etc.

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#14 DSF
November 15 2012, 06:25PM
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Nashville is not going to trade Weber right after paying that humungous signing bonus.

And besides, trading Weber for an average #4D, an AHL winger, a prospect and a pick wouldn't fly.

There would be a boatload of teams lining up to beat that deal.

And Nashville can't trade him until July 2013 in any case.

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#15 gcw_rocks
November 15 2012, 06:28PM
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I think you gotta factor in the cap hit if you make that trade. Does it mean you won't be able to afford one of the wonderkids?

You would have to assume Whitney and Horcoff both come off the books, and you replace Whitney with someone under $2M and Horcoff with Belanger or Lander. Not sure that screams stanley cup to me.

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#16 Quicksilver ballet
November 15 2012, 06:28PM
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If there's one guy, Shea Weber would certainly be the pick of the litter. Best case and not a bigger WOW available in todays game.

There will certainly be winners and losers when this stoppage finally ends. It's nice the Oilers are on the other side of the fence with the small group thats be established here now. The additon of a dman his calibre puts the Oilers firmly in a playoff spot and challenging sooner rather than later. Edmonton could certainly us an ill will type of player when its gametime. You rarely see Weber smiling when the game clock is ticking.

Well done Mr. Allen "Anthopolis" Mitchell!

Good to see a go big or go home type of article. Don't see Smid wearing Oiler silks after a deal like this. The Preds have had their eye on Laddy for a number of yrs now.

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#17 Brad
November 15 2012, 07:41PM
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Unfortunately I agree with DSF here. We would need to put together a better package than that for Weber.

Maybe Petry+Hemsky+1st?

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#18 Craig1981
November 15 2012, 07:47PM
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Agreed, but if the whole season is cancelled, I have thought it will work out well for team that have players with huge front loaded contracts. I would be dieing to play if i had a contract like Richards, Hossa, or Webbers.

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#19 Rama Lama
November 15 2012, 08:20PM
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I do not want to be like the Rangers.........too much high priced talent, makes for a dysfunctional team.

We have a Webber in the making, unless we give up Horcoff, Belenger, and some prospect like Lander, I am not making this deal.

Giving up draft choices is very short sighted, and is never a good option.

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#20 godot10
November 15 2012, 09:01PM
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Nashville CANNOT trade Shea Weber for one full season after matching a free agent offer sheet.

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#22 @Oilanderp
November 15 2012, 10:09PM
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I really doubt Weber goes for that meager compensation.

Regardless: No. Grow your own Weber. We've come too far and been through too much to risk it all by whale hunting.

If we are close by the trade deadline, then it's a different matter. I don't think we are out of the woods yet.

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#23 @Oilanderp
November 15 2012, 10:19PM
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@Lowetide

Which means he may well be available before next puck drop! (Sad trombone)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCEuuW2_A

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#24 Tayranchula
November 15 2012, 10:31PM
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Honestly it will never happen but you have got to think the Preds would need help up front with some forwards leaving and of course they need major help on the back end.

Would a MPS, Petry, a 1st next year and a 2nd the year later (plus maybe some random prospects like Martindale, Hamilton, Simpson) do it? Probably not. That offer is not WOW enough and really, its a bunch of magic beans in the end regardless of how well everyone thinks Petry is at this stage and the potential MPS COULD bring to the table. I honestly think if the Oilers are going to fill any holes in their roster Hemsky and MPS have got to be the ones leaving

Weber would probably be half of the solving puzzle into making this team into a playoff enforcer. They need help in goal obviously and blind rat could tell you that but, I dont think it needs to be adressed as bad as the backend.

Streaky goalies steal playoff rounds often but streaky defence only gets you so far and I believe Dubnyk will fair well enough once he is put into action. Weber would make this team a playoff contender.

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#25 TigerUnderGlass
November 15 2012, 10:49PM
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godot10 wrote:

Nashville CANNOT trade Shea Weber for one full season after matching a free agent offer sheet.

According to the last CBA anyways. We don't know what the rules will be with the new one.

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#26 PutzStew
November 15 2012, 11:05PM
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For the Oilers to get Weber there would have to be at least one (Maybe two) of Hall, Eberle or RNH (Yak might be in there too) going to Nashville, plus a boat load of cash. Given the investment they have made on him, the only way Nashville is going to trade Weber is if he requests a trade or are going out of business and need to sell assets.

I wouldn't worry about the Oilers Defence, Goal tending or top 2 lines. I'd be more worried about the bottom 6. Out of those guys Jones (3rd line checker, banger, puts up well timed goals) and Petrell (good 4th line grinder) are probably the only ones that would garnish any attention from other teams. What does that tell you about the quality of the bottom 6? The rest are either too old, to over paid, Injury prone (see Hemsky because he doesn't fit in the Oilers top 6) or are easily replaceable.

Oilers Defence of Whitney (healthy), Smid, Petry, Shultz, Shultz and Peckham/Tubert/guy brought in after being bought out by another team, is the best Defense corp Oilers fans have seen since 2006.

I do have to admit though. Gilbert would have been a nice 5/6 guy for this group but not at 4mil/year plus I would rather watch Shultz Sr. so it was a worth while trade.

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#27 Jonathan Willis
November 15 2012, 11:38PM
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Assuming that Weber is tradable under the new CBA (which seems unlikely), the thing to keep in mind is that Nashville already had an offer: they could have accepted four first round picks from Philadelphia, with no risk of paying any signing bonus in a lockout year.

Since they didn't take that deal, whatever package a team like Edmonton offers would (one assumes) need to be better than four Flyers first-round picks.

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#28 Walter Sobchak
November 15 2012, 11:47PM
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This would constitute a "WOW" trade for sure, like where your head space is at LT!

If the season does go ahead, then it's my belief the Oilers are a lottery team still, and in no way shape or form does that 1st become part of any deal!

The problem with the Oilers is, they are just as weak at center as they are on defence, maybe even worse!

The trade will make the Oilers worse.

The GM of the Predators will be asking for not only Petry, but most likely Klefbom as well. You just don't give away Weber without suitable NHL replacements.

On top of that I'm sure he will be asking for Gagner or Hemsky.... possible both!

Then you can start adding a combination of Hartikinen, MPS, Pitlick, and the second and third ound draft pics.

So now that the Oilers finally get there "Stud" defensmen, while getting rid of there top prospects, they still need a second 1-B center, size in the top 6, an NHL caliber goaltender, hope to renew Smid who will also be a UFA about the time this trade goes down.

Just keep in mind I have zero faith that Tambellini can fix the rest via trade or UFA before the start of next season = lottery position again.

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#29 Walter Sobchak
November 16 2012, 12:00AM
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As good as Weber is, IMO the Predators hands are tied here. PHI 4 first rounders are not going to be NHL ready and certainly wouldn't help the Predators anytime soon.

The package of Players offered by PHI was inadequate as well. IMO quality and quantity is what they will want, they need to remain competitive and a playoff team.

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#30 The Beaker
November 16 2012, 12:41AM
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Jonathan Willis wrote:

Assuming that Weber is tradable under the new CBA (which seems unlikely), the thing to keep in mind is that Nashville already had an offer: they could have accepted four first round picks from Philadelphia, with no risk of paying any signing bonus in a lockout year.

Since they didn't take that deal, whatever package a team like Edmonton offers would (one assumes) need to be better than four Flyers first-round picks.

I'm also assuming Nash passed on the 4 1sts because in that market they cannot wait to draft all those pics and watch them pann out. Of course they could trade them but its going to be hard to get anything of true value for a 1st rounder 4 years out. It would mean more to them to get live bodies back even if each isnt equivalent to a 1st round pick in value at the time of trade.

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#31 oilabroad
November 16 2012, 07:14AM
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I think the commets about there having to be a star heading back are missing the point, Nashville can't afford that much money on one position, if they could they would just keep Weber. If I was GM of Nashville, and I could bring in a 1st pairing D (Petry), a second line center (Gagner), a third line wrecking ball (Harti) and a draft pick, I have just used Webers salary to fill out 3 key positions with actual NHL players (exactly what the 4 1st picks didnt do)... thats a trade that works for both sides. Quite honestly this is not someone I thought about for the WOW trade, but it makes a lot of sense if it can be done under the new CBA.

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#32 Mantastic
November 16 2012, 09:56AM
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@Craig1981

weber could care less if he plays of not, he's getting paid 26m in less than a year regardless of playing a single game.

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#33 oilerman53
November 16 2012, 10:39AM
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The trade of Petry, Hartikainen and Gagner should be well enough to pry Weber from Nashville. Weber would shore up our first pairing and give us a legitimate PP quarterback. I think he'd be better suited to the second unit with Ryan Smyth and Yakupov. Eberle and Nuge work too well together to give the shot away for Weber and we wouldn't want any of the big three standing in front of that howitzer potentially risking injury and or life.

First unit

Hall Nuge Eberle

J Schultz Horcoff

Second Unit

Hemsky Smyth Yakupov

Weber Whitney

You have Smytty standing in front of the net with the option of the shot from either Yak or Weber from the point and the wing. Hemsky can work the half wall. This would give us two very potent powerplays. Belanger is solely for faceoff and getting his butt to the bench for a more skilled player or standing in front of the net while Smyth fights for the puck on the boards.

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#34 D-Man
November 16 2012, 11:54AM
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oilerman53 wrote:

The trade of Petry, Hartikainen and Gagner should be well enough to pry Weber from Nashville. Weber would shore up our first pairing and give us a legitimate PP quarterback. I think he'd be better suited to the second unit with Ryan Smyth and Yakupov. Eberle and Nuge work too well together to give the shot away for Weber and we wouldn't want any of the big three standing in front of that howitzer potentially risking injury and or life.

First unit

Hall Nuge Eberle

J Schultz Horcoff

Second Unit

Hemsky Smyth Yakupov

Weber Whitney

You have Smytty standing in front of the net with the option of the shot from either Yak or Weber from the point and the wing. Hemsky can work the half wall. This would give us two very potent powerplays. Belanger is solely for faceoff and getting his butt to the bench for a more skilled player or standing in front of the net while Smyth fights for the puck on the boards.

Your proposal wouldn't be nearly enough to get Weber... Gagner (included in your package) wouldn't be enough - Nashville would rather have Marincin and a 1st round draft pick instead... Honestly I couldn't imagine Nashville trading Weber this way without a Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins or Yakupov going back...

Either way - Weber would look spectacular in an Oilers jersey... Not sure if we'd have the cap space to fit him with the kids on the roster, knowing in advance that the new CBA will bring the cap down somewhat...

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#35 Smokey
November 16 2012, 04:14PM
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Why on earth would Nashville trade him after paying him a zillion dollars. Sometimes these what if scenarios are just ridiculous. Maybe we could get him for Omark, Mark Messier's jock, Ninimaki.

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#36 NewAgeSys
November 16 2012, 08:26PM
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Never,not for a second would I even consider taking on a dinosaur contract like Webers.He is a prime example of the grossly artificially inflated value of some NHL players as dictated by the NHL and the Owners with the players obvious support.

We have Smid and Petry --a stay at home #1 in Smid and an offensive #1a in Petry with some good offense.They are a legitimate #1 pairing.

We have Peckham and J.Schultz --a stay at home in Theo with some serious bite and an offensive dynamo that will keep the puck up-ice all game in Justin.They are a potential 2nd pairing that will protect and highlight Yakupov and MPS make them 20lbs heavier instantly with Theo there.

We have Whitney and N.Schultz--a stay at home in Schultz and an offensive catalyst in Ryan.They are perfect for the vet line they are experienced and Whitneys long passes will save our vets tons of skating and allow their well seasoned legs to still execute the quick strike offence for 82 gms.

We have Potter and Tuebert--Potter with some offensive upside and Tuebert a developing stay at home guy with a tendancy to take the body first perfect for the 4th line minutes.

I think we have a very balanced defense and the only area I would try to improve on is N.Schultz because he is a bit small for my taste,we can only sacrifice size on defense for offense nothing else not even experience.I would rather push Tuebert up with Whitney and bring someone who is stay at home up to play with Potter from our farm system.

We dont "need" to make any great adjustment to our defence at this point ,we can upgrade if we want ,but we are secure in that area.

It is possible to manufacture elite players from within an elite System,so lets try to grow our own before we reach out somewhere else and give up on our own organisations assets.no disrespect to Shea or his advocates,we just need to strive for parity on every level in Edmonton and inflated salarys are not on our menu--unless the Names Crosby-Malkin-Kovalchuk or Ovechkin or Stamkos are involved.Those are WOW trades,anything else is a key move.

Something tells me Crosby is sniffing the tires here in Edmonton.I know its nuts but the feeling is there.

We just finished turfing three freaking years in a row and we have not seen nearly enough new faces from the farm outside of the #1 picks who were top 6 walkons anyway,it just happened that way--we need to run some support type guys through our big teams system ASAP.We need to improve our bottom six constantly through competition not trades,this team wont need to make a major trade for a very long time from or for their top six.Its all support players from here on in,upgrading constantly to bolster the bottom 6. Forget Weber,sign Louongo and lets get serious for three to five years,this city and organisation deserves it.For that matter sign Konopka and throw him on the 4th line with Laraque and we are in full offensive battle mode.

Hall-Nuge-Ebbs Smid-Petry

MPS-Gagner-Yakupov Peckham-J.Schultz

Smyth-Horcoff-Hemsky Whitney-N.Schultz

Jones-Belanger-Laraque{huge offense with his possesion game and Jones touch around the net} Hartikainen{again a straight up the middle threat that would work well with Jones} Potter-Tuebert

Louongo Dubby

I say we run with this for 25 gms and see where we are.

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#37 TheLastBigBear
November 17 2012, 05:25PM
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Seriously, these are delusional trade proposals.

If Edmonton had won the Weber sweepstakes, would the Oilers give him up for anything remotely resembling these returns?

Ooh oo ooh!! Can we trade the best defenceman in the world for a 2nd pairing defender, an AHL forward, a middling prospect, and a 2nd rounder? That's not even trying to offer them magic beans, those are regular beans.

There's not enough sarcasm in the world to adequately respond to this suggestion.

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